Not to be outdone by millions of Americans lamenting Daylight Savings Time, bond markets haven't merely slept in an extra hour, but simply haven't shown up at all yet today. 10yr yields have held between 2.04 and 2.057 while Fannie 3.0 MBS have cut a 102-03 to 102-06 range. Volume has been nonexistent and even equities markets are displaying a general lack of motivation with S&P's stuck for a 3rd time under Friday morning's highs. There were no instances of marked reactions to data or events in the overnight session and not even any opportunities for such things in the domestic session considering the absence of data/events. Things only get marginally less numb tomorrow. Amid such flatness--especially with bond markets on the bleeding edges of long term ranges--we're relatively more susceptible to headline tape bombs (not that we expect any, just that markets don't look eager to break from current levels without that sort of motivation).
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing
is available via MBS Live.
Pricing as of 11:07 AM EST
Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
Below is a recap of instant Reprice Alerts
and updates issued via email and text alert to MBS Live subscribers
No Free Lunches For Bond Market Bounce Back
After a sell-off like Friday's, it's a fair hope to fire up the screens to at least some measure of positivity on bond markets, even if it's only short-lived. Indeed, it's uncommon to see 5 days of increasing losses into a major event without the morning after providing some reprieve.
Yes here we are. Disturbingly 10yr yields not only traded marginally higher overnight, but thus far, have failed to break below Friday's post-NFP lows at 2.035. They're currently just slightly better than unchanged at 2.0453. MBS are also essentially unchanged, just half a tick over Friday's "post-roll" close at 102-05+. Equities futures are on the rise after hitting overnight lows at the same time as Treasury yields, but are still a point from breaking even vs Friday's 4pm levels.
There was little by way of market-moving considerations in the overnight session, at least if the relatively flat trading is any indication. There's a similar absence of relevant considerations for the rest of the domestic session, leaving tradeflows and technicals in charge, and leaving us to observe markets "trade it out" post-NFP.
Live Chat Featured Comments
Matthew Graham : "2% + levels in 10's sort of line up with a shift from 3.0s to 3.5's. factor in the ongoing realities of the Fed some day ceasing to buy MBS and the uncertain future of GSEs and there have been a good mix of reasons for continued widening."
Aaron Denton : "That is a great question - Curious myself "
Steve Chizmadia : "Yeah. Just wondering if one vs. the other is over/under performing or if it was related to Italy or anything specific is all"
Ted Rood : "but 100 bps seems MORE than a little pronounced!"
John Tassios : "Steve / MBS Spreads have been widening the past 2 1/2 months"
Steve Chizmadia : "MG, I recall us fighting to hold 103 las time 10 year yields were fighting to hold 2.05, what changed in the correlation for us now to be fightinh to hold 102 with 10 year yields still battling at or around the 2.05 level?"
Victor Burek : "even more so in a couple years when rates are higher"
Steve Chizmadia : "It will make resale very appealing to buyers with sellers that have current FHA loans with MI eligible to drop off or that has dropped off with the assumability of the loans"
Ted Rood : "Now it drops off when borrowers reach 22% equity, assuming they have 5 years paid into loan, effective 6/1, it will NEVER drop off, huge cost increase to FHA borrowers."
Matt Hodges : "instead of dropping at 78% ltv, it'll last forever"
Andy Pada : "don't really do FHA so what is lifetime MIP?"
Matt Hodges : "june 3"
Steve Chizmadia : "When is the lifetime MIP going into place?"
Ted Rood : "absolutely! That's all he needs, higher rate and EXTRA high MIP increase."
Victor Burek : "case numbers must be pulled prior to 4/1?"
Steve Chizmadia : "Get that case number ordered"
Ted Rood : "Had a client call on Friday to do FHA stream after telling me no in Nov and Jan.....better late than never."
Matt Hodges : "looks like another .125 deterioration on early pricing"
Andy Pada : "how is this morning's pricing compared to Friday?"
Steve Chizmadia : "Look at the bright side guys. By this time tomorrow we won't have to look at Fridays sell off anymore"
MMNJ : "run it through as a gift and see what happens"
Matt Hodges : "i haven't run it... but can't find it in the guides"
MMNJ : "is it that the AUS is not allowing it, or the UW is not cool with reserves being in the form of a gift?"
Matt Hodges : "gifts are allowed on secondary, but not investment"
MMNJ : "i believe there are no gifts allows on non-primary (but admittedly not 100% sure on 2nd homes)"
Matt Hodges : "is there any reason that a second home reserves can not be in the form of a gift?"
James Barnes : "Between North Korea talkin smack and Italy, maybe we can get some green today..."
James Barnes : "Texas FNMA Conduit Proposal - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jJDRCO7G2tk"
Jeff Anderson : "Not in Treasuries, OSO. MBS' will follow after getting up a little courage this morning."
Oliver S. Orlicki : "i am seeing red unfortunately"
Jeff Anderson : "GM, all. Feels like "The Day After". Here's to a good week."