Automated Mortgage and Real Estate Newsletters
Email This Page
Link To This Page
Visit MND at
MBA in NYC!
# of User Comments
Start a 2 Week Free Trial
Enhanced / Search Optimized Profiles
NO COMPETITOR ADS!!
Cobranded Social Marketing
View All Premium Services
Open Home Page
- HOME PAGE
- NEWS STREAM
- VIDEO NEWS
CHANNELS / TOPICS
- MND NewsWire
- Mortgage Rate Watch
- MBS Commentary
- Pipeline Press
Voice of Housing
- Community Commentary
- Daily Newsletter
- Daily Rate Report
- News Alerts
- Manage Email Subscriptions
- RSS Feeds
- About Us
- Authors / Contributors
- Submit an Article / Tip
- News Widgets
- Video Home
- Video RSS Feed
MND Live! - Real-time Streaming Community Activity
- Reader's Comments
- Q&A Home
Treasury / LIBOR
Residential Mortgage Debt
Mortgage Interest Rates
Current Mortgage Rates
FHFA / Freddie Mac / MBA
Compare Lender Rates
Mortgage Rate FAQs
Primary Market Volume
Total Outstanding Mortgages
Net Change Outstanding Mortgages
New Houses Financing Type
NAHB Builder Confidence
New Home Sales
Existing Home Sales
Pending Home Sales
FHFA Home Prices
S&P Case Shiller
New Home Prices
Existing Home Prices
- Current Mortgage Rates
- 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
- Daily Rate Movements
- Historic Mortgage Rates
- FHFA / Freddie Mac / MBA
- About Our Daily Rate Survey
- See Rates From Top Lenders
- Mortgage Calculators
- Mortgage Rate FAQs
- Compare Lender Rates
Follow Rates Daily
- Daily Rate Update Email
- SUBSCRIBE HERE
- Most Recent
Daily Rate Update
- Most Recent
- Most Recent
Weekly Rate Update
- Most Recent
Place your ad here
Connect With MND
Receive an Email Alert each time a story is posted to
Subscribe to Email Alerts
View All RSS Feeds
Subscribe to Newsletter
Subscribe to Mortgage Rates Update
From MBS Commentary
MBS Day Ahead: Active Day for Data; Range Remains Intact
MBS RECAP: Best Closing Levels Since Late November
MBS Week Ahead: For Bonds, Still About Stocks and "The Range"
MBS RECAP: Much Weaker After Data, but Still in Same Old Range
MBS Day Ahead: First and Only Major Econ Data of The Week
Other Top Headlines
Deutsche Settles; Investor Requirement and Underwriting Changes
Refi Applications Continue Healing With Help From FHA Fee Cut
Mortgage Rates Back Near 2-Month Lows
Fed's Dudley Wants You to Refi (Safely, of Course)
Legal and Regulatory Update; Credit Risk Transfers; 2016 Non...
Home builder sentiment...
Deutsche Bank to pay...
Rates Back Near 2-Month Lows; Fed's Dudley Wants You to Refi
Well stated, Julian. Great point about needing more millennial...
At the risk of sounding trite, the answer is probably yes, Kristin...
Contract fallout has nothing to do with reliable, knowledgeable...
Are rates headed up or down in the next 30 days? We are really...
Danged consumers! First they borrowed recklessly, igniting the...
Michelle, you touch on something very important: the value of...
Larry, the fallout of contracts have nothing to do with the lender...
My hope is that Carson is more concerned with being liked by...
Have MLO license interpretations for prior felonies been challenged /re-defined less...
Do we qualify this year
How do I find the historical data for prices on Agency MBS?
Bottom Right Default
State Name: New Jersey
State Name underscore: New_Jersey
State Name dash: New-Jersey
State Name lower underscore: new_jersey
State Name lower dash: new-jersey
State Name lower: new jersey
State Abbreviation: NJ
State Abbreviation Lower: nj
MBS Commentary Home
Fed Minutes Today at 2pm EST
Follow the markets live as the Fed Minutes are released at 2pm EST today.
4 Week Free Trial
of MBS Live
SECONDARY MARKETING MANAGERS
Gain access to the most accurate real-time back month TBA indications from
The Gut Flop
It's Fed Day. Are you ready?
If you've been following the MBS Commentary, you know what
a big deal this afternoon could be
. Markets have been
preparing for it for weeks
and MBS Live members have been on top of those movements every step of the way.
This afternoon, when markets are convulsing mere milliseconds after the Fed Announcement, MBS Live members will know what's going on before anyone else. The accuracy and speed of our real-time price stream and alerts is unmatched.
Here's a purchase code to take the
free trial for 4 weeks with no credit card required
MBS MID-DAY: Shaking Off Morning Weakness Before Breaking Ranges
Mar 6 2013, 11:09AM
: MBS Morning Market Summary
Following last week's post-Italian election rally, which left MBS and Treasuries at the week's best levels by Friday afternoon, this week has been a measured move back in the other direction. This can be viewed in a couple of ways. In simplest terms, domestic bond markets benefited from the Italy-inspired flight to safety and when Italian spreads began falling back to earth (read: German debt benchmarks), so too did domestic bond prices. The other stance--and really it could only be complementary to the first (because the first is incontrovertible)--is something like this: "after making it to the best levels in more than a month, MBS and Treasuries have pulled back slightly, getting in a more neutral--even defensive position ahead of big-ticket market movers coming up at the end of the week." Applying one or both of those frames of reference, this morning's movements are just more of the same post-Italy unwind and/or pre-NFP/ECB positioning. 10yr yields faithfully avoided a break of 1.95 so far and have ratcheted all the way back down to the mid 1.92's. MBS are a few ticks improved from their morning lows as well, which were incidentally at the analogous (to 1.95 in Treasuries) 103-06 price level. Both 1.95 in 10's and 103-06 in MBS were the first destination in the post-Italy rally on Monday 2/25.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom.
Real time pricing
is available via MBS Live.
103-09 : -0-05
105-19 : -0-03
106-17 : -0-02
107-18 : -0-02
104-14 : -0-07
107-18 : -0-03
108-21 : -0-02
109-02 : -0-06
102-27 : -0-05
105-08 : -0-02
106-05 : -0-01
106-28 : +0-00
Pricing as of 11:07 AM EST
Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
Below is a recap of instant
and updates issued via email and text alert to
MBS Live subscribers
ECON: Factory Orders Roughly In Line With Expectations
- Factory Orders -2.0 vs -2.2 Consensus
- Excluding Transportation = +1.3
- Market Reaction: no immediate reaction to the data itself, but improving just slightly as European markets weaken (lower Bund yields, falling Euro).
New orders for manufactured goods in January, down two of the last three months, decreased $9.6 billion or 2.0 percent to $472.9 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 1.3 percent December increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.3 percent.
Shipments, down two consecutive months, decreased $1.0 billion or 0.2 percent to $481.8 billion. This followed a slight December decrease.
Unfilled orders, down following four consecutive monthly increases, decreased $2.0 billion or 0.2 percent to $988.9 billion. This followed a 0.7 percent December increase. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 6.27, up from 6.15 in December.
Inventories, up two consecutive months, increased $3.2 billion or 0.5 percent to $618.4 billion. This followed a slight December increase. The inventories- to-shipments ratio was 1.28, up from 1.27 in December.
Bonds Weaker On Italy and ADP, Holding Ground Tentatively
You've heard of the "Stock Lever?" Now it's time to dust off the "Italy Lever." This is very much not a new phenomenon, but for the past week particularly, domestic bond markets have based more of their overnight movement on Italian credit spreads than anything else.
Today's overnight session was a carbon copy of yesterday's in many ways. US Treasuries were virtually flat during Asian hours and quickly began giving up ground as European markets opened up and Italian spreads started falling. Since yesterday morning, the gap between Italian and German 10yr debt has narrowed by 37 bps, accounting for more than half of the post-election spike. Lo and behold, US 10yr Treasuries have given back just over half of their post-election gains as well!
Treasuries found inspiration of their own after this morning's stronger-than-expected ADP Employment figures. 10's were already higher ahead of the report, but ratcheted another few bps higher to the mid 1.94's, essentially right on the upper limit of the early January range that we guessed might serve as a good impromptu "post-Italy/pre-NFP" range. Any higher than 1.95 today though, and that would start to look less like the case.
For their part, MBS opened about 4 ticks weaker and gave up another 3 following ADP, putting in lows at 103-06 in Fannie 3.0s. We're currently 1 tick off the lows at 103-06 (net -0-06 on the day). 10yr yields are up 3.6bps at 1.934 and S&P futures are up 7 points at 1544. The next and only remaining piece of scheduled domestic data today is Factory Orders (including Durable Goods revisions) at 10am.
ECON: ADP Payrolls Better Than Expected. Last Month Revised Higher
- ADP Private Payrolls at 198k vs 170k Consensus
- January Payrolls revised from 192k to 215k
- 198k payrolls is highest initial print since February 2012
- Market Reaction: 2 ticks lower in Fannie 3.0s, 1.5bps higher in 10yr Treasuries as of 8:21am
Private sector employment increased by 198,000 jobs from January to February, according to the February ADP National Employment Report®, which is produced by ADP®, a leading provider of human capital management solutions, in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis. The January 2013 report, which reported job gains of 192,000, was revised upward by 23,000 to 215,000 jobs.
Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of the featured comments from the
MBS Live Dashboard's Live Chat feature
, utilized by hundreds of industry professionals each day.
"RTRS- U.S. JAN FACTORY ORDERS EX-TRANSPORTATION +1.3 PCT"
"RTRS - U.S. JAN FACTORY ORDERS -2.0 PCT (CONSENSUS -2.2 PCT) "
"HARP 3.0 would be crazy. All the risk from HARP 2 is still on the lender, and there are no guarantees overall. "
"Eric...I do not see HARP 3 occurring...way to messy...but we can dream"
"Industry dream only, congress is in stupid mode, no new rules right now. "
"Harp 3.0 - is this going to happen?"
"and the biggest fear is the cuts wont have a impact because people will realize we cut spending with no negative impact, so lets cut more"
"the sequester isnt gonna have anywhere near the impact govt officials have said it would..just look at the stock market, all time highs...govt officials dont want any spending cuts thus the many heads of departments coming out talking about how bad the cuts will be"
"That may ultimately prove to be the case, but it wouldn't have as much of an effect on Private Payrolls. I don't know how government contractors are counted though. More to the point is that markets already know about the Sequester and so to some unknown extent, it's already being (or has been) priced-in to current levels."
"Wouldn’t these numbers seem superficial given the looming “Sequester affect” that will eventually come into play? Seems like a false positive given all the unfixed issues at hand."
"additionally, you can't compare headline to headline because NFP includes government jobs. Use the private payrolls component of NFP."
"again, ADP's claim is that their new headlines attempt to predict the 2nd revision to NFP"
"last month, adp was 192k and nfp was only 157k..thats off by almost 25%"
"revisions included, but remember the new methodology ostensibly makes ADP more similar to the revised NFP private payrolls figure. Markets are still feeling that out, but it's the best forward indicator they have at the moment. "
"is that graph after both nfp and adp has done revisions , or is it their first guess?"
"ADP vs NFP over time: http://tinyurl.com/ankgtx5"
"that's a pretty big drop for an ADP # that is never accurate?"
"man, here we go. all of the hard fought gains from 2 weeks are going to be unwound in 5 minutes"
"RTRS - US ADP PAYROLL CHANGE HIGHEST SINCE FEB 2012 "
"RTRS- US ADP JANUARY PAYROLL CHANGE REVISED TO 215,000 FROM +192,000 "
"RTRS- REUTERS CONSENSUS FORECAST FOR ADP PAYROLL CHANGE FOR FEB WAS FOR INCREASE OF 170,000 JOBS "
"RTRS- ADP NATIONAL EMPLOYMENT REPORT SHOWS U.S. EMPLOYMENT INCREASED BY 198,000 PRIVATE SECTOR JOBS IN FEBRUARY"
Oliver S. Orlicki
"1.92. Creeping back into the range again. 1.84 seems so far away."
what our user's have to say
about MBS Live
» Start a
two week free trial
of MBS Live.
About the Author
Chief Operating Officer,
Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live
A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ...
MBS Live! Community
View All Email Options
This Channel Only
Around The Web
View All RSS Feeds
Discuss the MBS and Mortgage Markets on Our Streaming Dashboard
Discuss MBS and Mortgage Markets with
Hundreds of Loan Officers
on the MBS Live Streaming Dashboard.
Start a Two Week Risk Free Trial
to Post Comments
More From MND
Mortgage Rate Watch
Mortgage Rates Back Near 2-Month Lows
Mortgage rates moved lower today , generally recovering the losses seen last Friday. This brings many lenders back in line with the lowest levels since...
Fed's Dudley Wants You to Refi (Safely, of Course...
Debt finances additional consumption. That could be the summary of a speech given on Tuesday to the National Retail Federation's annual convention by William...
Legal and Regulatory Update; Credit Risk Transfers;...
Well, we have 24 business days until our next Federal holiday (President’s Day on February 20). Sigh. Much worse is this very, very sad, troubling...
MBS Week Ahead: For Bonds, Still About Stocks and "The...
January continues playing host to the same level of stock/bond correlation that we typically see at the end and beginning of any given year. Beyond calendar...
MBS RECAP: Much Weaker After Data, but Still in Same...
Granted, we might wake up next Tuesday (markets are closed Monday) to find that bonds are quickly breaking out of the recent range. But as for this week...
Mortgage Rate Watch
Mortgage Rates End Week at Highs
Mortgage rates moved higher today , even after many lenders offered mid-day improvements in the afternoon. Bond markets (which underlie rate movement)...
Carson will "Examine" FHA Premium Cut
The surprise reduction in FHA annual premiums announced last week by the current Secretary of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) may not survive long...
Primer on HUD and Carson Testimony, Thoughts on MIP...
The average person in the residential lending sector would be hard pressed to say what Julian Castro, the current Secretary of HUD, does , or what role...
MBS Day Ahead: First and Only Major Econ Data of The...
Bond markets are beginning the day slightly stronger ahead of the week's only significant economic data. The 8:30am time slot brings Retail Sales ...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Pull Back to Unchanged After Speculative...
In glancing at various trader/analyst/strategist emails, I see perhaps a greater diversity of opinions about today than of any other recent trading day...
Mortgage Rate Watch
Mixed Bag For Mortgage Rates Amid Market Volatility...
Mortgage rates were mixed today , depending on the lender. Discrepancies between lenders have been higher than normal over the last 24 hours for several...
Trulia Notes Increasing Incidence of Failed Sales
It ain't over 'til it's over, and that seems to be increasingly true of contacted home sales. Trulia reported on Wednesday that, "Deals to sell homes are...
MBA Expects December Decline in New Home Sales
New home sales are projected to fall in December relative to November, not an unexpected pattern as the year-end holidays approach. The Mortgage Bankers...
Reverse Mortgage Trends: NY Proposal, HECM Purchase...
Ever wondered how much Ben Carson is worth, where he puts his money, and how much money he earns? Here you go . His hearing is today for the HUD spot....
MBS Day Ahead: Downtrend Taking Shape; Focusing on...
As the new year continues, a common new year's theme is in full effect: the stock/bond correlation. Stocks and bonds frequently move together over...
MBS RECAP: Decent Day for Bonds, Despite Complexity...
Today was one of the more complex trading days we've had recently. Three things were certainly in play and 2 of them were interdependent. 1. Stocks...
Mortgage Rate Watch
Mortgage Rates Lowest in Nearly 2 Months
Mortgage rates fell today , in many cases to levels not seen in well over a month . The average lender was just a hair better than last Thursday, meaning...
The Ceaseless Lender and Investor FHA, VA, Fannie,...
While rumors swirl about the topic for the phone call with Stearns Lending’s correspondent-wide staff today (let’s hope its good news), Richard...
MBS Day Ahead: Waiting For a Range Break, and 10yr...
To a significantly greater degree than yesterday's 3yr Treasury auction, today's 10yr auction will have the power to confirm a trend we were beginning...
Applications Continue Stabilizing as Rates Recover
Mortgage applications continue to decompress from the two-week holiday moratorium as well as from the usual holiday business interruptions, so it is hard...
View More at the Market Data Center
30 Yr FRM 4.12%
15 Yr FRM 3.33%
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.18%
30YR FNMA 4.5 107-18
30YR FNMA 5.0 108-29
30YR FNMA 5.5 111-01
Recent Housing Data:
Register for Free
Learn About MBS Live!
2 Week Free Trial
Become a Contributor
Around the Web
Current Mortgage Rates
Local Mortgage Professionals
Local Real Estate Professionals
+Add Your Free Listing
+Add Your Company
Recent Press Releases
Submit a Press Release
Submit a News Tip
Submit a Link to News
Contact Our Press Team
Founded in 2004, Mortgage News Daily has established itself as a leader in housing news, analysis and data. Our innovative social media platform combines industry leading content and data with an active community of industry professionals, to accomplish our primary goal - keeping our readers informed.
Subscribe to Our Newsletter
Follow On Your Mobile Device
Subscribe To RSS
Follow On Twitter
Follow On Facebook
All Content Copyright © 2003 - 2017 Brown House Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Reproduction in whole or in part in any form without the express written permission of MortgageNewsDaily.com is prohibited.