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From MBS Commentary
MBS RECAP: Bonds Tank in PM Trading After Oracle Goes Big
MBS Day Ahead: Stock/Bond Divergence: Is Someone Lying?
MBS RECAP: Bonds Hold Very Much Inside Yesterday's Range
MBS Day Ahead: Identifying Normal Pull-Back vs an Actual Reversal...
MBS RECAP: Best Kind of Day for Bonds: Steady and Much Stronger
Other Top Headlines
Freddie's Mortgage Market Indicator Inches Toward Stability
Pending Sales Fall 3.7% in May on Contracting Inventories
New Products; Free Training; FHLBs Enlist in MPF for Ginnies
Refi Demand Won't Reflect Rate Drop Until Next Week
Cash-Outs Not Yet "Worrisome"
High flying home prices
Santelli: The UK elixir
May pending home sales...
Boomers' Big Impact on Housing; Pending Sales Ebb; Rates Hold 3-Year Lows, But...
You're right, MG, this is a big deal. Maybe not fall of 2008...
Now that qualified buyers are actually qualified buyers and fraud...
There are always bubbles but predicting them is no easy feat...
Nice posted AQ. Very informative!
Really, how many loan officers pull credit and run a scenario...
Yeah, or folks were trading on the block sales of Eurodollar...
Actually, the TNX spiked in overseas markets and on the opening...
Mortgage rates seem to be tracking about an 18-day moving average...
Have MLO license interpretations for prior felonies been challenged /re-defined less...
Do we qualify this year
How do I find the historical data for prices on Agency MBS?
Bottom Right Default
State Name: New Jersey
State Name underscore: New_Jersey
State Name dash: New-Jersey
State Name lower underscore: new_jersey
State Name lower dash: new-jersey
State Name lower: new jersey
State Abbreviation: NJ
State Abbreviation Lower: nj
MBS Commentary Home
Fed Minutes Today at 2pm EST
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MBS RECAP: When Is Strength Actually Weakness In Disguise?
Feb 21 2013, 4:09PM
: MBS Afternoon Market Summary
When is strength actually weakness in disguise? This is not a trick question. It's probably applicable to many topics, but today it runs the risk of being applicable to bond markets and mortgage rates. This isn't to say that interest rates are definitively "doomed" and that any motions toward recovery are therefor invalid. This isn't the product of brainwashing or band-wagon jumping with the multi-month bias moving us regularly higher in rate (though such ignorance is temptingly blissful). This is quite simply about the fact that bond markets rallied today and were clearly unwilling or unable to move past the technical levels that would pique our interest in further positive possibilities. Sure... that could easily happen tomorrow, but all we know is that it didn't happen today.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom.
Real time pricing
is available via MBS Live.
102-28 : +0-03
105-08 : +0-02
106-09 : +0-01
107-13 : +0-01
103-30 : +0-00
106-32 : -0-02
108-03 : -0-03
108-32 : -0-05
102-13 : +0-03
104-28 : +0-02
105-30 : +0-01
106-22 : -0-01
Pricing as of 4:07 PM EST
Afternoon Reprice Alerts and Updates
Below is a recap of instant
and updates issued via email and text alert to
MBS Live subscribers
MBS Dip Below Previously Supportive Range Into 3pm Close
Just a few minutes before the 3pm close a flurry of activity hit Treasury futures with big trades ostensibly shifting positions from March to June deliveries. In and of itself, that's a normal part of being within a month of the Treasury futures "calendar roll" that happens every 3 months, but either the huge outflow spooked accounts and caused a mini snowball of follow-through, or it was part of a generic weakness because 10's moved a quick 2bps higher and still seem to be climbing while money still looks to be flowing out of TSY futures (connotes profit taking).
MBS haven't much enjoyed that drama with Fannie 3.0s falling from 103-02 to 102-29 in fairly short order. In and of itself, this gap in prices doesn't suggest negative reprices, but as we often note, when a trend emerges that is both "late in the day" and "abrupt," each tick of movement can be a bit more meaningful than if we were assessing gradual ebbs and flows during more liquid times of the morning hours.
Reprice risk is likely mostly at bay for now, though a few of the jumpiest lenders could be close. We'd need a bit more weakness to say that reprice risk is more than outside possibility at a scattered minority of lenders. Here's hoping we don't get back to you with that news in a few minutes!
Narrow Range Challenging Best Levels. Reprice Potential?
MBS and Treasuries have both traded eerily narrow ranges so far today and Treasuries have just now broken out to the downside in yield. For 10's the long term technical level of 1.9636 stretches back to July 2012 and provided resistance earlier this morning. Shortly after the 30yr TIPS auction and a mixed batch of Fed-Speak, 10's tested a break of the technical level which has precipitated a mini technical/tradeflow snowball to lower yields (currently 1.9584).
The next echelon of technical resistance comes into play closer to 1.9500, but that horizontal zone is less tidy and precise than the 1.963 mark. For now, we'll take what we can get, and so will MBS, having moved back to their best levels of the day, but not yet through them. Fannie 3.0s are up 8 ticks at 103-02, and this has been enough for a "stability reprice" from one lender even though current prices are only 2-3 ticks better than rate sheet print times.
Additional reprices are possible thanks to the stability--especially if we add on to gains--but not likely to be widespread unless we pick up another 2-3 ticks.
Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of the featured comments from the
MBS Live Dashboard's Live Chat feature
, utilized by hundreds of industry professionals each day.
: 3:52 PM - Flagstar
: 3:49 PM - Sierra Pacific
"I'm floating new stuff. NFP is the next chance I see for any good economic news."
"Just happy to see 103 for more than 60 seconds."
"in the grand scheme of things the way tsy have traded recently Ted, 1.95 is a mile a way"
"1.95 not that far off at the moment!! ;)"
"there's been a good amount of short covering in fits and starts all week, again this morning, and again from noon until about 5 minutes ago. I think any latent, larger short base wouldn't be stopped out until getting closer to 1.950, but I'd like to emphasize that this is a wild guess off the top of my head."
"any chance we start to see a short squeeze on treasuries?"
"it's early yet Ted"
"Nice to see equities drfopping for 2nd day. Was pretty sure they couldn't go up indefinitely."
"something we can all agree on I'd imagine"
"RTRS- FED'S BULLARD SAYS FOMC HAS NOT BEEN CLEAR ENOUGH ABOUT WHAT WILL HAPPEN WHEN A POLICY 'THRESHOLD' IS CROSSED"
"RTRS - FED'S WILLIAMS SAYS EXPECTS FED BOND BUYING WILL BE NEEDED "WELL INTO THE SECOND HALF" OF 2013"
"RTRS- WILLIAMS: US NEEDS "POWERFUL AND CONTINUING" MONETARY ACCOMMODATION TO BOOST HIRING, INFLATION TOO LOW"
"and MBS purchases to be expanded to 100B per month, lo comp guaranteed at 200 bps on all loans."
"RTRS - WILLIAMS: US UNEMPLOYMENT TO STAY ABOVE 'NATURAL' RATE FOR SOME TIME, MUTE WAGE PRESSURES, KEEP INFLATION IN CHECK"
"RTRS- WILLIAMS SAYS CURRENTLY ESTIMATES 'NATURAL' RATE OF US UNEMPLOYMENT AT 6 PCT, BUT WILL FALL AS ECONOMY HEALS "
"RTRS- WILLIAMS: RECOVERY WILL BE SLOW TO CUT UNEMPLOYMENT, JOBLESS RATE TO STAY ABOVE 7 PCT UNTIL AT LEAST END-2014 "
"RTRS - U.S. FED'S BULLARD SAYS BEST NOT TO DO MORE ASSET PURCHASES THAN YOU HAVE TO, BECAUSE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AROUND PROGRAM "
"Recent little blip (and increased flashing lights in Treasuries) was the 30yr TIPS auction. Doesn't look like a range-breaker for now. bid-to-cover was light. Indirects were strongest since Feb 2011. Yield award was 2.4bps higher than expected, but within the standard range for the issuance (which is pretty wide)."
"30 year fixed only"
: 1:06 PM - Provident Funding
"more than we will ever see in 1 year"
"how many jobs would have to be created to get to 6.5% in just over a year"
"yep, can kicked, but more uncertainty is coming"
"the "more potent" thing is troubling in that regard."
"FED'S BULLARD, CITING CALMER EUROPE, BETTER EMERGING MARKET OUTLOOK, SAYS REDUCED UNCERTAINTY COULD LAST SOME TIME "
"yeah, found the one I was looking for... from 2/13 : RTRS- FED'S BULLARD SAYS LOWER GLOBAL ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY IS BULLISH FACTOR FOR U.S. GROWTH IN 2013 "
"but they want public to think so"
"but fed cant pat themselves on back for that, but they can for qeforever"
"yet, I believe he himself has mentioned ebbing EU concerns"
"that would be misguided to some extent, right? because much of the "bounce" is the ebbing of EU concerns."
"sure seems like that is what he saying"
"what do you think he's saying here? More effective? I'm gonna take a look at the transcript and see if it's made clear there, but it seems like an interesting thing to say."
"RTRS- FED'S BULLARD SAYS CURRENT ASSET PURCHASE PROGRAM IS 'POTENT' RELATIVE TO EARLIER PROGRAMS "
"in other news, help me out with this:"
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About the Author
Chief Operating Officer,
Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live
A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ...
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