Unlike some pre-NFP Thursdays, which start to exhibit some sort of "lead-off" in either direction, today's was poster child for "calm before the storm." Actually, that would assume that tomorrow's NFP creates a storm, so it's not a perfect analogy just yet. On the other hand, today fits the "calm" requirement so well that almost anything that happens tomorrow would look like a storm by comparison. The calmness set in with a vengeance after bond markets shook off the last vestiges of directional movement after 10am. A brief Chicago PMI-related hiccup added a bit to the corrective momentum that was already in play after the much stronger than expected Personal Income report. Since then, we've been very sideways, in a very narrow range and are now heading into the last hour of the day right in line with yesterday's closing prices. Given the recent levels of volatility, this is calm indeed. But don't let that calmness engender complacency, let alone expectations for "no storm" tomorrow morning. Such a storm remains very possible, and despite some of the push-back against the notion of further bond market weakness from the analytical community, there's more room for weakness if the number is big enough tomorrow. that said, a disappointing number probably makes for a quicker, more decisive swing back to lower yields.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing
is available via MBS Live.
Pricing as of 4:07 PM EST
Afternoon Reprice Alerts and Updates
Below is a recap of instant Reprice Alerts
and updates issued via email and text alert to MBS Live subscribers
Support Holds Up In Uneventful Trading. Back In The Green
The day so far has been woefully uneventful in terms of trading levels. In general, MBS have been defensive about benchmark rates moving north of 2% in terms of the 10yr yield. As 2% shows some resolve to be a supportive ceiling this afternoon, MBS are tightening up. Both are benefiting from month-end buying as well, after fast-money accounts got their fill of selling this morning.
Fannie 3.0s are 2 ticks up on the day now at 103-10 and 10yr yields are down half a bp to 1.987. Both are very much inside the ranges established by the 8am-10am swings. Reprice risk is tilted positively at current levels, but isn't the sort of thing that's going to get a majority of lenders interested.
Live Chat Featured Comments
Bryce Schetselaar : "Mortgagee letter regarding FHA mortgage insurance is out. http://portal.hud.gov/hudportal/documents/huddoc?id=13-04ml.pdf"
Rob Clark : "Bill Gross tweeted today PIMCO is not seeing a large shift from their bond fund to stocks. He states to stock market rally must be coming from cash that was on the sidelines."
Victor Burek : "i think it will be around there too brent"
Victor Burek : "that good number is 200k to 225k"
Brent Borcherding : "145K is the number tomorrow, though."
Brent Borcherding : "I think that is the case, VB."
Victor Burek : "i'm hoping a good number is baked in and worse case we hold right around here"
Brent Borcherding : "All bets are off if NFP comes in at 250K, but I think that's highly unlikely."
Victor Burek : "me too..i think we would ahve to see over 250k jobs to confirm any type of recovery"
Moshe Berg : "I'm with you Brent."
Brent Borcherding : "I'm just not sold that tomorrow could be a real market mover."
Jason Wilborn : "floating into NFP is more thank risky at this point IMO"
Dirk Postupack : "Dena, I said it before I will say it again....I nver try to have anything floating thru a jobs report. Golden Rule for me in this business. Got burned 1 too many times years ago."
Matthew Graham : "whatever the client wants to do Dena. All we can do is educate and inform of the risks and possibilities "
Dena Zeman : "are a lot of you floating your rates or will you be locking them in before the report comes out tomorrow?"
Matthew Graham : "here's that longer term scary chart to which you may have been alluding. http://tinyurl.com/afsz3bm
Matthew Graham : "http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage_rates/blog/293835.aspx"
Matthew Graham : "here are some charts"
Brent Borcherding : "Gus--Which way if you had to gamble? I believe your tune has probably changed from earlier in the week."
Gus Floropoulos : "market consolidating for a breakout in either direction?"
Christopher Stevens : "I agree MG. If NFP is above concensus do we see the 10YR break 2.06 or higher? If NFP is below concensus would we even see much a move lower? "
Scott Valins : "MBS certainly not interested in the rejection"
Matthew Graham : "CS, seems like a sideways little range. Range is the range, until it's not the range any more?"
Christopher Stevens : "scary how the 10YR has hung tight at 1.97-2.03 all week. Just waiting to make a strong move in either direction."
Ira Selwin : "REPRICE: 11:26 AM - Chase Worse"
David Gaffin : "looks like wells is repricing."
Christopher Stevens : "I think if we drop below 1.97 we can say 2.0 was rejected"
Victor Burek : "can we say 2.00 was rejected"