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From MBS Commentary
MBS RECAP: Bonds Tank in PM Trading After Oracle Goes Big
MBS Day Ahead: Stock/Bond Divergence: Is Someone Lying?
MBS RECAP: Bonds Hold Very Much Inside Yesterday's Range
MBS Day Ahead: Identifying Normal Pull-Back vs an Actual Reversal...
MBS RECAP: Best Kind of Day for Bonds: Steady and Much Stronger
Other Top Headlines
Freddie's Mortgage Market Indicator Inches Toward Stability
Pending Sales Fall 3.7% in May on Contracting Inventories
New Products; Free Training; FHLBs Enlist in MPF for Ginnies
Refi Demand Won't Reflect Rate Drop Until Next Week
Cash-Outs Not Yet "Worrisome"
High flying home prices
Santelli: The UK elixir
May pending home sales...
Boomers' Big Impact on Housing; Pending Sales Ebb; Rates Hold 3-Year Lows, But...
You're right, MG, this is a big deal. Maybe not fall of 2008...
Now that qualified buyers are actually qualified buyers and fraud...
There are always bubbles but predicting them is no easy feat...
Nice posted AQ. Very informative!
Really, how many loan officers pull credit and run a scenario...
Yeah, or folks were trading on the block sales of Eurodollar...
Actually, the TNX spiked in overseas markets and on the opening...
Mortgage rates seem to be tracking about an 18-day moving average...
Have MLO license interpretations for prior felonies been challenged /re-defined less...
Do we qualify this year
How do I find the historical data for prices on Agency MBS?
Bottom Right Default
State Name: New Jersey
State Name underscore: New_Jersey
State Name dash: New-Jersey
State Name lower underscore: new_jersey
State Name lower dash: new-jersey
State Name lower: new jersey
State Abbreviation: NJ
State Abbreviation Lower: nj
MBS Commentary Home
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MBS RECAP: Holding Ground After Extending Losses Early
Dec 13 2012, 4:05PM
: MBS Afternoon Market Summary
Most of today's damage was done by 10am as bond markets walked in the door in weaker territory and were dealt a hand of surprisingly strong economic data. 10yr Treasuries continued their overnight trend of weakness, despite having bounce back from 1.72 to just under 1.70 shortly before New York trading began, ultimately testing technical boundaries just under 1.75. Fiscal Cliff headlines helped bond markets bounce back into the 11am hour and the post-POMO trade (Fed Twist Buying) was supportive this time around. But the weak 30yr bond auction put an end to whatever positivity was being mustered, deflecting momentum sideways with 10's heading out around 1.73 and Fannie 3.0 MBS 5 ticks weaker on the day at 104-19.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom.
Real time pricing
is available via MBS Live.
104-19 : -0-05
106-13 : -0-04
107-01 : -0-01
107-25 : -0-01
106-02 : -0-04
108-14 : -0-03
109-08 : -0-01
109-06 : +0-01
104-09 : -0-05
106-02 : -0-03
106-16 : -0-02
106-32 : +0-01
Pricing as of 4:04 PM EST
Afternoon Reprice Alerts and Updates
Below is a recap of instant
and updates issued via email and text alert to
MBS Live subscribers
Holding Ground After Hours, Some Positive Reprices
Although the 104-22 resistance level ended up keeping a lid on most of the day's price action, Fannie 3.0 MBS didn't venture much below 104-19 for the balance of the afternoon and are currently 4 ticks lower on the day at 104-20. Reprices have gone both ways, with the most recent being positive, and while we wouldn't necessarily lean on that as evidence that more could follow, it at least speaks to some sort of volatile equilibrium between bulls and bears heading into the close.
Stocks are spiking mildly off their lows following news that Boehner will forgo that long and lonesome road back to Ohio in order to meet with The President today. S&Ps are still off about 10 points from their 10:20am highs.
10yr Treasuries don't seem to care much and have managed to traipse sideways between their morning highs and afternoon lows, currently up 2.6 bps on the day at 1.7282.
30yr Auction Reinforces Resistance, Stocks Push Back
Both MBS And Treasuries were peeking across the fence of intermediate technical levels set up by yesterday's sell-off. Floor/Ceiling behavior was evident at 104-22 in Fannie 3.0s as well as anything from 1.70 to 1.714 in 10yr yields. Fannie 3.0s had edged up to 104-24 just ahead of the auction and 10's made it all the way to 1.704.
The auction came in weaker than expected with a 2.50 bid-to-cover versus a recent average closer to 2.60 and a stopping yield of 2.917 versus an expected 2.882. Bond markets initially pulled back to weak side of their technical lines in the sand. But pervasive weakness in equities markets combined with the small amount of "relief bid" following the week's supply needs (no more Treasury auctions to bid on - sometimes a marginal benefit even in the absence of strong results) helped bond markets get right back to the doorstep of those pivot points.
They haven't broken yet (in fact MBS just bounced off the 104-22 ceiling and 10's are back up to 1.723) but the fact that we're NOT selling-off any further feels like a decent enough turn of events considering the weak auction results. It's been a bumpy ride so far today, relative to recently narrower ranges leading up to the FOMC, but we should avoid excessive negative reprice risk if Fannie 3.0s continue to trade at 104-16 or above (currently at 104-19, 5 ticks weaker on the day). That said, some lenders may not enjoy the elevated level of volatility, despite the fact that outright prices aren't low enough to justify a reprice in and of themselves.
Bond Markets Continue To Bounce Around After Boehner
Both MBS and Treasuries are well off their weakest levels of the morning thanks to technical and tradeflow-based support that came in during and after the Fed's Twist buying operation from 10:15-11:00am. 10yr yields were technically in an uptrend through 11:00am but broke out of that trend channel right at 11am (though the highest yields were 20 minutes earlier). MBS simply held firm to their 104-16 support level mentioned earlier and have gradually followed Treasuries back into stronger territory.
To some extent the bond market bounce may have amounted to a capitulative risk-off trade following the big bounce lower in equities markets, but we'd hesitate to assume that's the case just yet. At the very least, the technical/tradeflow picture was supportive as well, with the big bounce lower occurring both sharply, with a noticeable increase in volume, and at the edge of an established technical zone around 1.75.
Since 11am, Boehner's comments on the Fiscal Cliff situation have helped equities continue to sell-off, though it looks like they're already trying to bounce. 10yr yields moved moderately lower with stocks and are subsequently moderately in tune with the bounce. 10's had a chance to break back below the mid 1.71's technical level and failed in a very clearly delineated fashion, not once, but twice. That's the line in the sand for broader bond markets at the moment and one that's not likely to be crossed without the help of a mostly awesome 30yr Bond Auction at 1pm.
As for MBS, negative reprice risk definitely ebbed with prices on Fannie 3.0s making it back up to 104-20 during all this volatility. But much like 10's, MBS have also encountered resistance at their own inflection point of 104-22. That'll serve as the MBS-specific line in the sand--to be tested on the chance we see a strong auction or are otherwise able to trade higher in the next hour. For now, it's overhead resistance.
Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of the featured comments from the
MBS Live Dashboard's Live Chat feature
, utilized by hundreds of industry professionals each day.
: 2:58 PM - Pinnacle
: 2:42 PM - Platinum Mortgage
"nice come back mbs!! "
"va irrrl the only thing that matters is the property your refinancing, the history of any other property is a non-factor, 100% sure on that"
"typically on an IRRRL, they are just going to look at credit score and LTV, credit doesn't really come into play, other than making sure the score is high enough for your investor and that there haven't been any lates in the past 12 months"
Oliver S. Orlicki
"does anyone know if you can a VA IRRRL for a borrower who had a short sale on an investment property less than 2 years ago. We are refinancing his primary"
"RTRS - U.S. SENATE DEMOCRATIC LEADER REID SAYS BOEHNER "CAN'T IGNORE THE AMERICAN PEOPLE FOREVER" ON TAX HIKES "
"sit down with some hot cocoa by the fire tonight and have a read Tom: http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/conference/2012/mortgage/primsecsprd_frbny.pdf"
"I am trying to figure if that is close to what they shoot for as a target margin?"
"haven't we seen this sort of thing before? Politicians put on a front and then at the last minute the put together "a package that will help the American people that has broad bi-partisan support" which really means we just ripped you tax payers off again because we had to put this junky legislation together the last minute and everyone voted for it because they had no choice but to pass something""
"I am wondering what the typical margin is on say a 30 yr fxd "A" paper loan?"
"the Fed. "
"if the 2.5% MBS pays 105 we'll be lending at 2.5%. The question is will anyone buy that MBS at that price."
"i would think that most are locked through the end of December"
"I may be a bit paronoid but I locked everything yesterday that I could."
: 11:03 AM - Wells Fargo
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About the Author
Chief Operating Officer,
Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live
A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ...
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30 Yr FRM 3.43%
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Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.51%
30YR FNMA 4.5 109-03
30YR FNMA 5.0 111-01
30YR FNMA 5.5 112-11
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