It continues to be the case that the bulk of market reaction to Fiscal Cliff reaction is seen in equities markets while bond markets tend to be a bit less flustered. Case in point, stocks sold off heading into the 11:00am hour as lawmakers hit the wires with soundbytes indicating to an outright lack of progress. Said Cantor: "Nothing is going on." Shortly thereafter, the President shared remarks at a scheduled business roundtable, saying that a deal could be merely a week away if Republicans would agree to a tax increase on the wealthy. Stocks reversed their swoon and fought back to opening levels. While the effects of the headline reactions were minor for bond markets, there's also the matter of the 11:00am completion of the daily dose of Fed "Twist" buying, which all-too-often marks the strongest levels of the day for bond markets, all things being equal. As such, there has been a detectable "reconsideration of strength" seen since then, but we wouldn't label it any more negatively than that for now.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
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is available via MBS Live.
Pricing as of 11:07 AM EST
Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
Below is a recap of instant Reprice Alerts
and updates issued via email and text alert to MBS Live subscribers
ECON: Factory Orders Higher Than Expected
- Factory Orders +0.8 vs 0.0 Consensus
- Durable Orders revised up to 0.5 from 0.0
New orders for manufactured goods in October, up
three of the last four months, increased $3.8 billion or
0.8 percent to $477.6 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau
reported today. This followed a 4.5 percent September
increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased
Shipments, up three of the last four months, increased
$1.9 billion or 0.4 percent to $482.3 billion. This
followed a 0.7 percent September increase.
Unfilled orders, up four of the last five months,
increased $2.8 billion or 0.3 percent to $982.9 billion.
This followed a 0.1 percent September increase. The
unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 6.25, up from
6.24 in September.
Inventories, up four consecutive months, increased
$0.5 billion or 0.1 percent to $616.0 billion. This was at
the highest level since the series was first published on a
NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 0.6 percent
September increase. The inventories-to-shipments ratio
was 1.28, unchanged from September.
ECON: ISM Non-Manufacturing Shows Stronger Activity, But Weaker Employment
- Headline NMI 54.7 vs 53.5 Consensus
- Business Activity 61.2 vs 55.0 consensus
- Employment 50.3 vs 54.9
" The NMI™ registered 54.7 percent in November, 0.5 percentage point higher than the 54.2 percent registered in October. This indicates continued growth at a slightly faster rate in the non-manufacturing sector. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index registered 61.2 percent, which is 5.8 percentage points higher than the 55.4 percent reported in October, reflecting growth for the 40th consecutive month. The New Orders Index increased by 3.3 percentage points to 58.1 percent. The Employment Index decreased by 4.6 percentage points to 50.3 percent, indicating growth in employment for the fourth consecutive month but at a slower rate. The Prices Index decreased 8.6 percentage points to 57 percent, indicating prices increased at a slower rate in November when compared to October. According to the NMI™, 11 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in November. Respondents' comments are mixed; however, the majority of survey respondents reflect a cautious optimism about current economic conditions."
Bond Markets Holding Gains After Stock Open, ISM Data Coming Up
Equities markets and bond yields moved higher during the Asian session as China lifted a ban on insurance company investment into commercial banks. The Shanghai composite subsequently surged nearly 3%, leading other stock averages higher.
Domestic stocks have retained a good portion of their overnight gains, but the risk rally following China's news certainly hit a wall in the European session. The first big impact came from a rather weak Spanish debt auction which brought the biggest losses of the session for the Euro and the coincided with the biggest move lower in 10yr Treasuries. The reversal was helped along by lower-than-expected Retail Sales in the Eurozone, but mitigated to some small extent by better-than-expected service-sector PMIs.
Bond markets generally maintained a more even-keeled tone throughout the overnight events with early pre-market domestic trading providing another boost for Treasuries, this time getting 10yr yields close to 1.59 just before 7am.
10's and MBS both opened in line with yesterday's latest levels and extended gains at a moderate pace without much regard for weaker-than-expected ADP Payrolls data or the mixed results from the Productivity and Costs report. We're holding gains for now, with 3.0s are up 3 ticks at 105-14 and 10yr yields are down just over 1 bps to 1.594. S &P's rose briefly at the open, but have since fallen back to within a point of yesterday's close.
ECON: Productivity Higher Than Expected While Labor Costs Decline
- Productivity +2.9 vs +2.7 Consensus, most since Q310
- Labor Costs -1.9 vs -0.9 Consensus, most since Q411
Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased at a 2.9 percent
annual rate during the third quarter of 2012, the U.S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics reported today. The increase in productivity reflects increases
of 4.2 percent in output and 1.3 percent in hours worked. (All quarterly
percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.)
From the third quarter of 2011 to the third quarter of 2012, productivity
increased 1.7 percent as output and hours worked rose 3.5 percent and 1.8
Labor productivity, or output per hour, is calculated by dividing an index
of real output by an index of hours worked of all persons, including
employees, proprietors, and unpaid family workers. The measures released
today were based on more recent source data than were available for the
Unit labor costs in nonfarm businesses declined 1.9 percent in the third
quarter of 2012, while hourly compensation increased 0.9 percent. Unit
labor costs rose slightly, 0.1 percent, over the last four quarters.
BLS defines unit labor costs as the ratio of hourly compensation to labor
productivity; increases in hourly compensation tend to increase unit labor
costs and increases in output per hour tend to reduce them.
ECON: ADP Private Payrolls Slightly Lower Than Expected
- Private Payrolls +118k vs +125k Consensus
- October Payrolls Revised To 157k From 158k
Carlos A. Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP, said, “This month’s ADP
National Employment Report shows an increase of 118,000 new jobs in November. Today’s
report shows that year-to-date employment gains averaged 135,000 jobs per month.”
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Superstorm Sandy wreaked havoc on
the job market in November, slicing an estimated 86,000 jobs from payrolls. The manufacturing,
retailing, leisure and hospitality, and temporary help industries were hit particularly hard by the
storm. Abstracting from the storm, the job market turned in a good performance during the
month. This is especially impressive given the uncertainty created by the Presidential election
and the fast-approaching fiscal cliff. Businesses appear to be holding firm on their hiring and
Live Chat Featured Comments
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- U.S. HOUSE MINORITY LEADER CANTOR SAYS REPUBLICANS HAVE NOT HAD ANY DISCUSSIONS WITH OBAMA ON HOW TO CUT SPENDING "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - U.S. HOUSE SPEAKER BOEHNER SAYS WHITE HOUSE FISCAL CLIFF PROPOSALS CAN'T PASS EITHER CHAMBER OF CONGRESS "
Matthew Graham : "Relative to Factory Orders, yes. Middle of the road in terms of the broad swath of econ data, and all of it is a bit less closely watched than it otherwise might be without Fed next week and Fiscal Cliff (and ECB tomorrow even? NFP Friday? Who knows...) "
Sung Kim : "MG is ISM employment index watched closely?"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- ISM NON-MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT INDEX 50.3 IN NOV VS 54.9 IN OCT "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- ISM NON-MANUFACTURING BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDEX 61.2 IN NOV (CONSENSUS 55.0) VS 55.4 IN OCT"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- ISM REPORT ON U.S. NON-MANUFACTURING SECTOR SHOWS PMI AT 54.7 IN NOVEMBER (CONSENSUS 53.5) VS 54.2 IN OCT "
Victor Burek : "isnt that what Japan has been trying now for a decade, but is yet to work?"
Adam Quinones : "The Fed's goal is to repress returns on risk free assets by driving prices higher and higher. That turns investors off (too expensive) and forces them to move their $$$ money further out the credit curve into riskier assets. This sparks the money creation process and hopefully leads to job creation...."
Matthew Graham : "Haven't seen an updated poll, but previous consensus for next week's announcement is to simply extend O-twist, but perhaps with a lessened amount per month, due in part to the waning supply of short term debt to sell. Some have suggested they could sell 3-6 year paper while others feel that the current state of inflation allows for more outright purchases. If they do what they did with QE3 and keep it "open-ended," it seems like that would help to keep the inflation hawks relatively more groun"
Adam Quinones : "(aged agency MBS which are trading at more expensive prices than TBAs)"
Adam Quinones : "next buy could be specified MBS pools "
Matthew Graham : "more QE"
Gus Floropoulos : "question for u MG.... what other weapons does the FED have in the event we continue to slide....fed funds is at 0, we've done 3 waves of QE that has helped in some ways, but overall has increased the balance sheet of the FED and generated more debt for the US, we've bought bonds, mbs, twisted, what else is available?"
Matthew Graham : "well, remember that ADP's methodologies have been revamped in concert with Moody's/Zandi, for better or worse. It may turn out to suffer less from past, short-term discrepancies, but more track record needs to be established with the new report. Even then ADP says they're shooting for their number to line up with NFP's private payrolls REVISIONS rather than the current month headline."
Gus Floropoulos : "should we be concerned for NFP? Usually ADP is overoptimistic, then the NFP hits ADP in the mug with some reality"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - U.S. Q3 NON-FARM PRODUCTIVITY RISE LARGEST SINCE Q3 2010, UNIT LABOR COSTS DROP LARGEST SINCE Q4 2011 "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - U.S. Q3 NON-FARM UNIT LABOR COSTS REVISED TO -1.9 PCT (CONSENSUS -0.9 PCT) FROM -0.1 PCT "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- U.S. Q3 NON-FARM PRODUCTIVITY REVISED TO +2.9 PCT (CONSENSUS +2.7 PCT) FROM +1.9 PCT"
Jeff Anderson : "And sub-1.60 is back! Woo hoo. Or yawn. Could go either way this AM."
Andrew Horowitz : "but attribute 50-60k jobs to early thanksgiving so all things being equal 150l"
Victor Burek : "bloomberg saying Sandy caused a loss of 80k jobs, so without sandy would have been 200k jobs"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - US ADP OCTOBER PAYROLL CHANGE REVISED TO 157,000 FROM 158,000 "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - REUTERS CONSENSUS FORECAST FOR ADP PAYROLL CHANGE FOR NOV WAS FOR INCREASE OF 125,000 JOBS "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - ADP NATIONAL EMPLOYMENT REPORT SHOWS U.S. EMPLOYMENT INCREASED BY 118,000 PRIVATE SECTOR JOBS IN NOVEMBER "
Andrew Horowitz : "but at least we have ADP to wake us up early"
Ira Selwin : "VB - prettyy much sideways for awhile now"
Victor Burek : "pretty much sideways since 10am yesterday"
Oliver S. Orlicki : "Losing steam before the bell"