Late on Monday, Eurozone Finance Ministers, along with the IMF, reached a deal on Greece's long-term debt with the supposed outcome being the €44 bln payout of the country's next bailout tranche. Yesterday, we noted that there were two competing versions of reality: one that held a deal to be likely and another saying that there would be no deal until earlier in December. In a way, both of these notions got some support in that a deal was, in fact, reached, but the paying out of the bailout tranche won't happen until at least December 13th. Particularly, one snippet from Eurogroup President Jean-Claude Juncker sums up the delay succinctly:
"With these decisions, member states can now launch their national parliamentary procedures, which should be finalised in time for the Eurogroup to finally decide on the disbursement on the Dec. 13."
So it's a "deal," but one that remains open to objection and/or modification based on parliamentary debate in Eurozone "member states" (read: Germany). You know... That old chestnut.
At best, this is only of marginal benefit to the "risk-on" camp--a fact that has thus far been seen in Monday evening's movement higher in the Euro which is quite small in comparison to the past two weeks of relative "progress" on the Greece deal.
Essentially, the can has been kicked. It may turn out to be one small step in the right direction for the Eurozone, but it's far from a watershed event. Good timing too... We have the onset of domestic economic data and Treasury Auctions on Tuesday. This can-kicking allows us to focus more resolutely on those events.
Today's headliner is the Durable Goods report at 8:30am, expected to show a decline from +9.8 in September to -0.6 in October. Market participants may well have wider margins of error in their minds and algorithms due to the uncertain impact of Hurricane Sandy. Case-Shiller Home Prices at 9am are expected to increase at a seasonally-adjusted rate of 0.4 percent after rising 0.5 percent last time. Then at 10am, the FHFA releases it's own Home Price data and the Conference Board reports Consumer Confidence for November, expected to rise from 72.2 to 73.0. Tuesday also begins the week's Treasury Note auction cycle, but the 2yr issuance hasn't been a market mover for quite some time and we wouldn't expect that to change any time soon.
Live Econ Calendar:
Week Of Mon, Nov 26 2012 - Fri, Nov 30 2012
Mon, Nov 26
National Activity Index
Tue, Nov 27
CaseShiller 20 mm SA
Monthly Home Price mm
2-Yr Note Auction
Wed, Nov 28
Mortgage refinance index
Mortgage market index
New home sales-units mm
5-Yr Treasury Auction
Thu, Nov 29
Initial Jobless Claims
Pending sales change mm
7-Yr Note Auction
Fri, Nov 30
Personal consumption mm
Personal income mm
Core PCE price index mm
* mm: monthly | yy: annual | qq: quarterly | "w/e" in
"period" column indicates a weekly report
* Q1: First Quarter | Adv: Advance Release | Pre: Preliminary
Release | Fin: Final Release
* (n)SA: (non) Seasonally Adjusted
* PMI: "Purchasing Managers Index"
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