Bond markets have been mixed so far this morning and somewhat volatile, but within narrow ranges. Overnight news and events out of Europe pushed and pulled on both Treasuries and equities futures. The first movement of the night was in a friendly direction for bond markets as German data was weaker than expected and European officials clashed over Greek bailout terms. Later in the overnight session, the trends reversed when German government sources were cited as saying a three-in-one lump sum payment to Greece was being considered. The weakness that followed was relatively well-contained though MBS continue to trade in slightly negative territory, just barely on the edge of negative reprice risk depending on the timing of a lender's initial rate sheet.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing
is available via MBS Live.
Pricing as of 11:06 AM EST
Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
Below is a recap of instant Reprice Alerts
and updates issued via email and text alert to MBS Live subscribers
Bond Markets In Slightly Stronger Territory. MBS Drop Due To Roll
For anyone with customized reprice alert settings, this morning's "MBS Have Moved DOWN" alert was due to the roll from November coupons to December in Fannie/Freddie 30yr Fixed MBS. Factoring out that artificial adjustment, Fannie 3.0s are up 4 ticks currently after opening up 2 ticks in the red.
Treasuries were broadly improved throughout the overnight session as weak German data and a clash between the IMF and EU over Greek bailout plans fueled a general "risk-off" trade. Shortly before the US open, news hit that Germany wants to "bundle three Greek aid tranches into a single payment of more than €44 bln" according to a Reuters wire citing German government sources. This sent German Bunds sharply, but temporarily higher in yield, along with US Treasuries.
The sell-off was very fast, but very small and short-lived as early domestic trading helped the bounce back. We can also only imagine that markets have generally had their fill of ostensibly positive headlines concerning Greece's bailouts, austerity, and fiscal restructuring.
Whatever the case, the flow of risk-on vs risk-off looks to have swung back in the favor of fixed-income heading into the cash stock market open. With no scheduled data on tap apart from the 2pm Federal Budget, we could see a fair bit of connection between stocks and bonds today.
That said, a small, early rally in stocks at the 9:30am open has thus far failed to stir Treasuries and MBS to noticeably weaker levels. Fannie 3.0s are currently holding their 4 tick improvement while 10yr yields remain in the mid 1.58's.
Live Chat Featured Comments
Matthew Graham : "Would be, but would also be pretty aggressive in the context of the 2-3 week rally. So yeah, grandslam I guess, would be a good way to characterize that. Anyway, here's where we're at in the context of that rally and there's 1.55 on the lower line: http://tinyurl.com/a24j5zj"
Gus Floropoulos : "If we can close below the 1.61 realm it would be technically bullish...1.55 would be a grandslam"
Steven Stone : "everyone STOP, this am's DROP is because of a ROLL"
Matthew Graham : "gm all, yes, AM drop = Roll"
Bill Laffey : "Brayden, I believe the roll occurred "
Christopher Stevens : "interesting read regarding Richard Cordray's possible poitical ambitions... http://www.mortgageorb.com/e107_plugins/content/content.php?content.12724"
Brayden Alexander : "What caused our AM drop?"