The past two weeks have been an exercise in exhaustion and endurance for markets and market participants. Following the post-election rally, the question quickly became: "what now?" Thursday's ECB Announcement and press conference--while not expected to be a major shock--was the most interesting thing left on the horizon. So when it flopped, the "what now" question grew even louder and bond markets trudged even more firmly sideways. From a technical standpoint, that question was more clearly understood with the following chart which shows an uptrend in yields (we're using 10yr Treasuries instead of MBS, to discuss broader currents in fixed-income) from august that was finally broken following the election.
1. This is where 10yr yields were hanging out earlier on Thursday, very much ready to either STAY INSIDE the uptrend line or treat it as an inflection point and confirm at least some of the positivity.
2. This is where 10yr yields went following the exceptionally strong 30yr Bond Auction. The teal line is one of several technical resistance levels in this range derived from another uptrend line that's only seen one sustained break during July and early August. (Sustained in this context would mean "more than 2 sessions.)
So naturally, we're not at the point where we're waiting to see if yields will hold under the teal line for a THIRD session (which would be quite bullish), but rather simply observing that yields have returned to that doorstep. Maybe they'll knock. Maybe they'll be let in. Maybe they'll ring the doorbell and run... If the trend is our friend, then all we can observe at this point is that the trend represented by the dotted white line looks defeated and a weekly close underneath it would be all the more confirmation we'd need. Beyond that, the teal line (and others, but we're tired), still represent boundaries. We'll cross that bridge if we come to it, and we'll come to it if yields cross that line.
In addition to this technical bird-watching, there will be a few pieces of data on Friday, including the first look at Consumer Sentiment for November, expected to rise to 83.0 from 82.6. Import/Export prices for October lead off at 8:30 but we'll be utterly shocked if anyone cares. Wholesale Inventories print at 10am, and by that time, the market participants that deigned to make the commute may well be eyeing the exits heading into the three day weekend. That said, it is "Notification Day" for Fannie and Freddie 30yr Fixed MBS, meaning that Tuesday's trading will pick up with December coupons as the new "front month," thus causing the appearance of roughly a quarter of a point "drop," which we also refer to as "the roll."
Live Econ Calendar:
Week Of Mon, Oct 29 2012 - Fri, Nov 2 2012
Mon, Oct 29
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Tue, Oct 30
3-Yr Note Auction
Wed, Oct 31
MBA Purchase Index
Mortgage refinance index
10-Yr Note Auction
Thu, Nov 1
Initial Jobless Claims
30-Yr Bond Auction
Fri, Nov 2
* mm: monthly | yy: annual | qq: quarterly | "w/e" in
"period" column indicates a weekly report
* Q1: First Quarter | Adv: Advance Release | Pre: Preliminary
Release | Fin: Final Release
* (n)SA: (non) Seasonally Adjusted
* PMI: "Purchasing Managers Index"
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