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From MBS Commentary
MBS RECAP: Markets Offer No Sign of Pre-Yellen Tilt
MBS Day Ahead: Any Underlying Imbalances Will Surface Today
MBS RECAP: Data and Auction Pass Without Trace. Bring on Yellen
MBS Day Ahead: Why The First Reaction to Yellen Might Not Be...
MBS RECAP: Have You Heard The One About "The Range?"
Other Top Headlines
Cash Sales Retain Elevated Share of Market
Appraisal Trends; Fannie & Freddie - Never a Dull Moment
Mortgage Rates Still Sideways and That's Great!
Appraisal and Inventory Issues Complicate Existing Sales Numbers
New FEMA Proposal and Random Sample of Disaster Policies From...
How will the markets...
Is the Fed too erratic...
Fed's Kaplan: The...
Appraisal Issues Affecting Sales Numbers; New Loan App; Potentially Significant Price Trend Shift
The critical question unanswered here is whether there will be...
This is very informative.
Over $600,000,000,000 in outstanding MBS with coupons of 4% or...
Only a few times I am asked. Either right at the beginning -...
Not sure I would want a Doctor diagnosing my medical concerns...
Hi psuvp84.. Loan pricing, particularly for jumbo and investment...
Would it be wide to refi a rental property 30 yr fixed jumbo...
Have MLO license interpretations for prior felonies been challenged /re-defined less...
Do we qualify this year
How do I find the historical data for prices on Agency MBS?
Bottom Right Default
State Name: Washington
State Name underscore: Washington
State Name dash: Washington
State Name lower underscore: washington
State Name lower dash: washington
State Name lower: washington
State Abbreviation: WA
State Abbreviation Lower: wa
MBS Commentary Home
Fed Minutes Today at 2pm EST
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MBS MID-DAY: Back Into Positive Territory After Opening Weaker
Nov 8 2012, 11:07AM
: MBS Morning Market Summary
MBS struggled a bit this morning--to whatever extent a supportive bounce at 105-00 in Fannie 3.0s could be considered struggling (considering that's
higher than the entire 2nd half of October
and most of November-- but found their footing in the 9am hour. They've since turned positive on the day, up 4 ticks now at 105-08 while the longer end of the yield curve is still struggling with significantly more day-over-day weakness. Stocks are generally flat to slightly weaker today, but well within yesterday afternoon's range and both sides of the market seem to be
gathering a bit of sideways momentum
now as they continue to move away from the big swings surrounding the election. With that in mind, it makes sense that economic data and events have had much less to do with what little movement we've seen so far today. Tradeflows and positioning have been the bigger factors and there's been a bit of a battle between various account types, ultimately resulting in the mostly sideways momentum, perhaps with an eye on the
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom.
Real time pricing
is available via MBS Live.
105-08 : +0-04
106-21 : +0-02
107-04 : +0-02
107-26 : +0-00
106-25 : +0-03
108-30 : +0-03
109-14 : +0-01
108-12 : -0-03
104-29 : +0-04
106-11 : +0-04
106-22 : +0-02
107-01 : -0-03
Pricing as of 11:07 AM EST
Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
Below is a recap of instant
and updates issued via email and text alert to
MBS Live subscribers
Bond Markets Moderately Weaker. Data, Draghi Underwhelming
It's somewhat of an interesting morning so far with the usual suspects having done surprisingly little to move markets. Those "suspects" include economic data and the press conference with ECB Pres Mario Draghi following the ECB's decision to keep rates unchanged earlier this morning (as expected). Draghi dropped no tape bombs in the press conference and markets haven't moved much at all from opening levels.
That also means that the stronger-than-expected Jobless Claims and narrower-than-expected Trade Deficit were of little consequence to bond markets, with the former most easily discounted due to Hurricane Sandy-related data distortions.
Instead of a discernible connection to data or events, bond market movements have been more driven by tradeflows in an ongoing "leveling-off" process following yesterday morning's big election-driven rally, as well as a need to be in position for this afternoon's 30yr Auction.
10yr yields are about 4.5 bps higher this morning, but not back into Tuesday's range. Still, 10's are pushing 1.69 at the moment, which is a technical support level of some importance. If 10's break above 1.69 with any meaningful momentum, we'd expect to see some spillover into MBS.
As for their part, MBS are doing their best to hang tough this AM with Fannie 3.0s down only 1 tick at 105-04 presently after having dipped to 105-01 earlier. There's no other scheduled data this morning, which leaves the door open for some concern about the stock market rally that is underway since the 9:30am cash open. For now, bond markets look to be holding their ground reasonably well and not overly keen to take part in a unified "risk-on" move before the Fed's Twist buying from 10:15-11:00am. There's probably a breaking point there if things get too heated, and it's coming up fairly soon if stocks break yesterday's afternoon highs.
ECON: September Trade Deficit Narrowest Since Since Dec 2010
- Trade gap shrinks to $41.55 bln from $43.79 bln previously
- Consensus was $45.0 bln
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that total September exports of $187.0 billion and imports of $228.5 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $41.5 billion, down from $43.8 billion in August, revised. September exports were $5.6 billion more than August exports of $181.4 billion. September imports were $3.4 billion more than August imports of $225.2 billion.
In September, the goods deficit decreased $1.4 billion from August to $57.5 billion, and the services surplus increased $0.8 billion from August to $15.9 billion. Exports of goods increased $5.4 billion to $134.0 billion, and imports of goods increased $3.9 billion to $191.5 billion. Exports of services increased $0.3 billion to $53.0 billion, and imports of services decreased $0.6 billion to $37.1 billion.
The goods and services deficit decreased $2.9 billion from September 2011 to September 2012. Exports were up $6.4 billion, or 3.5 percent, and imports were up $3.4 billion, or 1.5 percent.
ECON: Jobless Claims Lower Than Expected, Distorted By Storm
- Claims 355k vs 370k Consensus, 363k Previous
- Continued Claims Lowest Since July 2008
- Labor Department Says Superstorm Sandy boosted claims in some states and depressed claims in at least one state.
In the week ending November 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 355,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week's unrevised figure of 363,000. The 4-week moving average was 370,500, an increase of 3,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 367,250.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.4 percent for the week ending October 27, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending October 27 was 3,127,000, a decrease of 135,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,262,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,227,750, a decrease of 38,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,266,250.
Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of the featured comments from the
MBS Live Dashboard's Live Chat feature
, utilized by hundreds of industry professionals each day.
"Leadership at it's finest. Sounds familiar. :)"
"RTRS- DRAGHI - ASKED WHETHER WOULD LIKE FOR SPAIN TO ASK FOR AID, SAYS UP TO SPAIN "
"Did not discuss what they'll do next year? Umm, it's 6 weeks till next year? Really?"
"RTRS- DRAGHI -DID NOT DISCUSS WHAT WILL DO NEXT YR "
"draghi starting press conference"
"RTRS- US SEPT TRADE DEFICIT NARROWEST SINCE DEC 2010 "
"RTRS - US SEPT TRADE DEFICIT $41.55 BLN (CONSENSUS $45.0 BLN) VS AUG DEFICIT $43.79 BLN (PREV $44.22 BLN) "
"RTRS - US LABOR DEPT ANALYST SAYS SUPERSTORM SANDY BOOSTED CLAIMS IN SOME STATES, DEPRESSED CLAIMS IN AT LEAST ONE STATE "
"RTRS - US CONTINUED CLAIMS LOWEST SINCE WEEK ENDED JULY 12, 2008; INSURED UNEMPLOYMENT RATE LOWEST SINCE JULY 26, 2008 WEEK "
Oliver S. Orlicki
"going to buy my ticket now"
"RTRS- US CONTINUED CLAIMS FELL TO 3.127 MLN (CONS. 3.253 MLN) OCT 27 WEEK FROM 3.262 MLN PRIOR WEEK (PREV 3.263 MLN) "
"RTRS- US JOBLESS CLAIMS FELL TO 355,000 NOV 3 WEEK (CONSENSUS 370,000) FROM 363,000 PRIOR WEEK (PREVIOUS 363,000) "
"play the lottery oliver"
Oliver S. Orlicki
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About the Author
Chief Operating Officer,
Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live
A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ...
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View More at the Market Data Center
30 Yr FRM 3.41%
15 Yr FRM 2.75%
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.52%
30YR FNMA 4.5 109-04
30YR FNMA 5.0 110-21
30YR FNMA 5.5 112-14
Recent Housing Data:
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