Bond markets opened in weaker territory this morning, but only moderately so. The overnight session didn't contain any remarkable revelations to motivate interest rates in one direction or another and the recent theme of "waiting on the election" seems to be the best bet. This does not, however, preclude directional movement altogether. So far today, that direction has erred on the side of weakness. Production MBS are just over a quarter of a point lower than yesterday's latest levels and 10yr yields are about a bp and a half higher (but still under 1.70%). There hasn't been any meaningful economic data to digest though yields have improved slightly since the completion of the Fed's scheduled "Twist" buying in the 6-8yr Sector. MBS haven't been necessarily willing to follow just yet and are generally just grinding sideways near their lows. The 3yr-Note auction at 1pm is expected to have a noticeable effect on production MBS
MBS Pricing Snapshot
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Pricing as of 11:06 AM EST
Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
Below is a recap of instant Reprice Alerts
and updates issued via email and text alert to MBS Live subscribers
ECON: Job Openings, Hiring, And Firing Relatively Unchanged From 2011
- Job Openings in September at 2.6 vs 2.7 in August
- Hires Down to 3.1 fro 3.3 in August
- JOLTS data is more of a strategic, longer-term consideration than an up-to-the-minute market mover. It simply adds to the broader assessment that the labor market remains relatively stagnant.
From the BLS:
"There were 3.6 million job openings on the last business day of
September, essentially unchanged from August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics reported today. The hires rate (3.1 percent) was little
changed while the separations rate (3.0 percent) declined in
September. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of
job openings, hires, and separations for the nonfarm sector by
industry and by geographic region.
In September, the hires rate was little changed at 3.1 percent. The
hires rate was also little changed in all industries except state and
local government, where it declined. The Midwest region experienced a
decline in hires for September. The number of hires in
September was 4.2 million, up from 3.7 million at the end of the
recession in June 2009."
Bond Markets Holding In Moderately Weaker Territory
Fannie 3.0 MBS are back below 105-00 this morning, off 6 ticks at 104-30. 10yr yields are a just under 2 bps higher at 1.698 and S&P futures have added about 7 points to yesterday's 5pm levels.
Volumes have been light enough to suggest that the corrective move overnight is no more significant that a cautious attempt to stay within recent ranges ahead of today's auction. That's not to say that underlying events over the course of the session were innocuous, but simply that we're not feeling compelled to lean on any of them in order to explain market movements.
That's not to say that nothing mattered overnight. There was certainly a good measure of "risk-on" sentiment that hit European markets after Spain's service-sector PMI printed better-than-expected results, which happened around the same time that Spains PM made various, ostensibly soothing comments (no plans for further tax hikes, no decision on pensions yet). Later in the session, weaker-than-expected German econ data helped low-risk EU debt (most closely tied to US Treasuries) hold it's ground .
The domestic data calendar is utterly silent today with the exception of the 3yr Note Auction at 1pm. These have been, and likely will continue to be, relatively inconsequential events for production MBS and the longer end of the yield curve. As we noted in The Day Ahead
, the market's preoccupation seems to be with today's Presidential Election. The fact that results won't be known by the close of markets today would suggest that things continue to be relatively contained though we wouldn't rule out a "lead off" in either direction.
Live Chat Featured Comments
Ira Selwin : "DU 9.0 was revised to include the 30 day accounts in assets to close/reserves"
Andy Pada : "Ira, does the DU make it clear re: the reserves?"
Clayton Sandy : "You'll see a C for charge account and R for revolving. I've had some charge accounts show a minimum payment though. When that happens, I run it LP and show the statement. "
Ken Crute : "my same thought Ross, I see that quite often "
Ross Miller : "this is going to be a pain for small business where the account is in the owners name but the bill is paid by the business. Borrowers may not be holding that much in personal accounts."
Ira Selwin : "I don;t think they always do. Not all Amex accounts are true 30 day accounts - like Amex Blue doesn't require balance to be paid off."
Ross Miller : "Don't all AMEX accounts show as open accounts on credit reports?"
Ira Selwin : "Yes, as long as it's a true 30 day account."
Ross Miller : "So the borrower has to show enough assets to pay it off plus required reserves?"
Ira Selwin : "The new DU was going to add the balance into the calculation of reserves."
Ross Miller : "Has anybody run into an issue with required reserves on AMEX accounts showing 30 day accounts ?"
Steve Chizmadia : "Doing some homework on the state propositions to vote accordingly in a few hours and head to work."
Oliver S. Orlicki : "Gm, Election Day!"