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From MBS Commentary
MBS RECAP: Markets Offer No Sign of Pre-Yellen Tilt
MBS Day Ahead: Any Underlying Imbalances Will Surface Today
MBS RECAP: Data and Auction Pass Without Trace. Bring on Yellen
MBS Day Ahead: Why The First Reaction to Yellen Might Not Be...
MBS RECAP: Have You Heard The One About "The Range?"
Other Top Headlines
Cash Sales Retain Elevated Share of Market
Appraisal Trends; Fannie & Freddie - Never a Dull Moment
Mortgage Rates Still Sideways and That's Great!
Appraisal and Inventory Issues Complicate Existing Sales Numbers
New FEMA Proposal and Random Sample of Disaster Policies From...
How will the markets...
Is the Fed too erratic...
Fed's Kaplan: The...
Appraisal Issues Affecting Sales Numbers; New Loan App; Potentially Significant Price Trend Shift
The critical question unanswered here is whether there will be...
This is very informative.
Over $600,000,000,000 in outstanding MBS with coupons of 4% or...
Only a few times I am asked. Either right at the beginning -...
Not sure I would want a Doctor diagnosing my medical concerns...
Hi psuvp84.. Loan pricing, particularly for jumbo and investment...
Would it be wide to refi a rental property 30 yr fixed jumbo...
Have MLO license interpretations for prior felonies been challenged /re-defined less...
Do we qualify this year
How do I find the historical data for prices on Agency MBS?
Bottom Right Default
State Name: Washington
State Name underscore: Washington
State Name dash: Washington
State Name lower underscore: washington
State Name lower dash: washington
State Name lower: washington
State Abbreviation: WA
State Abbreviation Lower: wa
MBS Commentary Home
Fed Minutes Today at 2pm EST
Follow the markets live as the Fed Minutes are released at 2pm EST today.
4 Week Free Trial
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SECONDARY MARKETING MANAGERS
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The Gut Flop
It's Fed Day. Are you ready?
If you've been following the MBS Commentary, you know what
a big deal this afternoon could be
. Markets have been
preparing for it for weeks
and MBS Live members have been on top of those movements every step of the way.
This afternoon, when markets are convulsing mere milliseconds after the Fed Announcement, MBS Live members will know what's going on before anyone else. The accuracy and speed of our real-time price stream and alerts is unmatched.
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MBS RECAP: Underwhelming, Uneventful, Uninspired
Oct 24 2012, 4:09PM
: MBS Afternoon Market Summary
triple "U" score
for bond markets today... The data was
and the trading on the session was
as MBS cut an extraordinarily narrow range for an FOMC day. With the Fed announcement behind us, there's an even greater case to be made for a bond market that is generally feeling
. Is it NFP that we're waiting for next week? Is it Europe? Is it the election? Is it month-end? How about a combo platter of all of the above? We don't know and we're
not entirely sure
markets know either, or perhaps Treasuries and mortgages are sort of biding their time with popcorn and lawn chairs watching the parade of earnings reports and gyrations in equities. Whatever the case, if we're going to see some sort of early indication that the sideways grind may be breaking, it's not today.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom.
Real time pricing
is available via MBS Live.
104-14 : -0-07
106-06 : -0-05
106-32 : -0-01
107-27 : -0-02
105-28 : -0-06
108-12 : -0-04
109-06 : -0-01
108-21 : -0-04
104-07 : -0-08
105-30 : -0-05
106-19 : -0-01
107-06 : -0-01
Pricing as of 4:08 PM EST
Afternoon Reprice Alerts and Updates
Below is a recap of instant
and updates issued via email and text alert to
MBS Live subscribers
Almost Imperceptable Reaction To FOMC Leaves MBS Broadly Sideways
You'd be hard-pressed to find a LESS interesting reaction to an FOMC Announcement than what we've seen today. If you'd told us right at 2:14pm that the 104-16 to 104-19 range that had governed most of the day in Fannie 3.0s would hold up through the end of the session, we'd have stopped just short of laughing, yet HERE WE ARE!
Fannie 3.0s haven't fallen below 104-16 or broken above 105-19 since the announcement and currently trade at 104-18. Treasuries remain in the thick of their range on the day though favor slightly lower yields at the moment, down to 1.77 from 1.79+ earlier this morning. Stocks have slumped a bit as well, but haven't broken lower than mid-day lows. Everything's very contained...eerily even!
Without putting too fine a point on it, the Fed changed nothing with the exception of referring to household spending as slightly stronger and inflation having picked up a bit. There were no adjustments to any of the policy-related verbiage and the ongoing firm commitments to keep policy intact were unchanged.
As for mortgage rates, the reprice outlook, inasmuch as it's spurred by MBS fluctuations, looks neutral for now. We'll watch for any breaks of 104-16 or 104-19 to see if there's follow through.
Stability Prevails Following Less-Than-Stellar 5-Year Auction
Markets continue to show their ever-waning level of interest in the shorter duration Treasury auctions as today's lackluster 5yr issuance has failed to spook any sort of sell-off. In fact, if anything, we're seeing some slow and steady determination on the part of MBS and longer-dated Treasuries to hold supportive levels and remain at least sideways heading into the FOMC Announcement.
As for the auction itself, the stopping yield was reasonably close to expectations, but slightly higher. Demand was weaker-than-average with a Bid-To-Cover of 2.73.
The first reaction amounted to a brief hiccup to the weak side for both MBS and Treasuries, but at this point, it's indistinguishable from the rest of today's price action and bond markets have actually strengthened a bit in the first 15 minutes following the auction.
For MBS, this eases previously growing risks of negative reprices and for bond markets in general, serves to keep us more sideways and range-bound heading into FOMC at 2:15pm. It's not out of the realm of possibility for MBS to break higher before then, but it would have to be a convincing break to prompt positive reprices from more than 1 or 2 lenders.
MBS Melting As Bond Markets Weaken. Negative reprice Risk Already
Depending on the investor and the timing of initial rate sheets, negative reprice risk is already on the radar as MBS move to new lows on the day.
For Fannie 3.0s that's 7 ticks lower than yesterday's 5pm levels at 104-15, but only 3-4 ticks lower than the time frame that most lenders release rate sheets.
This doesn't seem to be a runaway sell-off at the moment, so we might wait it if the lender we were floating with had a historical tendency to not be on the bleeding edge of the reprice scene. But we'll let you know if that changes. As for now, one or two lenders are already at risk, but not "most."
Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of the featured comments from the
MBS Live Dashboard's Live Chat feature
, utilized by hundreds of industry professionals each day.
"The tens are doing well, come MBS, you can do it!"
"how about green within 20 minutes"
"RTRS - FED VOTE IN FAVOR OF POLICY WAS 11-1; LACKER DISSENTED, OPPOSED ADDITIONAL ASSET PURCHASES, DESCRIPTION OF TIME PERIOD "
"RTRS- FED SAYS GROWTH IN BUSINESS INVESTMENT HAS SLOWED; HOUSING SECTOR HAS SHOWN FURTHER SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT "
"RTRS - FED SAYS WILL CONTINUE OPERATION TWIST UNTIL END 2012, AS PREVIOUSLY ANNOUNCED"
"RTRS- FED SAYS EXPECTS HIGHLY ACCOMMODATIVE POLICY WILL REMAIN APPROPRIATE FOR CONSIDERABLE TIME AFTER RECOVERY STRENGTHENS "
"RTRS - FED SAYS EXPECT TO KEEP FEDERAL FUNDS RATE "EXCEPTIONALLY LOW" AT LEAST UNTIL MID-2015 "
"RTRS- FED SAYS WILL CONTINUE PURCHASES OF MBS AT PACE OF $40 BLN A MONTH; WILL CONTINUE PURCHASES OF MBS UNTIL LABOR MARKET IMPROVES SUBSTANTIALLY "
"as with most big potential market movers JD, the key word is "potential""
"when the Fed speaks is there any correlation with how MBS does for the day?"
"RTRS- U.S. 5-YEAR NOTES BID-TO-COVER RATIO 2.73, NON-COMP BIDS $36.03 MLN "
"RTRS- U.S. SELLS $35 BLN 5-YEAR NOTES AT HIGH YIELD 0.774 PCT, AWARDS 28.40 PCT OF BIDS AT HIGH "
"5yr Auction coming up. Recent average bid-to-cover at 2.83, but that's dragged down by June and July's ugly auctions. Factoring those two out, 2012 has been closer to mid/upper 2.9s. 4 out the the last 5 auctions were higher-than-expected yields thought he most recent one on 9/26 was lower than expected and with a 3.06 BTC"
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About the Author
Chief Operating Officer,
Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live
A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ...
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View More at the Market Data Center
30 Yr FRM 3.41%
15 Yr FRM 2.75%
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.52%
30YR FNMA 4.5 109-04
30YR FNMA 5.0 110-21
30YR FNMA 5.5 112-14
Recent Housing Data:
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