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From MBS Commentary
MBS Day Ahead: Rates Don't Live in a One Story Building
MBS RECAP: Bond Markets Continue Slide
MBS Day Ahead: Draghi Press Conference and Data Contend With...
MBS RECAP: From Bottom to Top of 2017 Range in One Fell Swoop
MBS Day Ahead: Active Day for Data; Range Remains Intact
Other Top Headlines
Vendor News and New Products; Agency News and Updates--Stocks...
Rates Break Through Important Ceiling
Probable Delay, Possible Reversal for FHA Premium Cut
Construction Starts Bounce Back, Permits Remain Constrained
Chase Settles Discrimination Issue; FHA Program Roiled by MIP...
Bill Gross skeptical...
Trump gives first speech...
Trump's tax reform...
Probably Delay, Possible Reversal of FHA Premium Cut; Rates Break Through Ceiling; Construction Bounces Back
Good post - I have seen deals fail due to each of these examples...
Well stated, Julian. Great point about needing more millennial...
At the risk of sounding trite, the answer is probably yes, Kristin...
Contract fallout has nothing to do with reliable, knowledgeable...
Are rates headed up or down in the next 30 days? We are really...
Danged consumers! First they borrowed recklessly, igniting the...
Michelle, you touch on something very important: the value of...
Larry, the fallout of contracts have nothing to do with the lender...
Have MLO license interpretations for prior felonies been challenged /re-defined less...
Do we qualify this year
How do I find the historical data for prices on Agency MBS?
Bottom Right Default
State Name: New Jersey
State Name underscore: New_Jersey
State Name dash: New-Jersey
State Name lower underscore: new_jersey
State Name lower dash: new-jersey
State Name lower: new jersey
State Abbreviation: NJ
State Abbreviation Lower: nj
MBS Commentary Home
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MBS RECAP: New Record Levels For MBS And Treasuries
May 30 2012, 4:06PM
: MBS Afternoon Market Summary
While "record levels" for MBS have been a relatively common occurrence in the past month as Fannie 3.5's have progressively taken baby steps into higher and higher territory, 10yr Treasuries hadn't yet taken out the 9/26/11 "record level" until today. And they obliterated it, falling to 1.617 at the lowest point of the day and not far from that presently, in the low 1.62's. German Bunds laugh at those "high" US Treasury yields, themselves having traded down to the low 1.26's today. Yes, Fannie 3.0 production is ramping up currently, and structurally, rates have room to improve. Several lenders repriced positively today, but just as MBS gains pale in comparison to Treasury gains, so too do rate sheet improvements fall short of MBS Price improvements. Diminishing returns at current levels...
On another note, don't forget that tomorrow begins the two "data-packed" days of the week, though Friday remains the biggie with NFP. Tomorrow is no slouch, however, and although it was easy to lose sight of domestic concerns today, they could be back in the picture tomorrow.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom.
Real time pricing
is available via MBS Live.
104-26 : +0-16
106-12 : +0-10
107-07 : +0-05
108-12 : +0-03
106-16 : +0-16
109-05 : +0-10
109-23 : +0-05
110-20 : +0-03
104-19 : +0-16
106-00 : +0-09
106-24 : +0-05
107-21 : +0-02
Pricing as of 4:05 PM EST
Afternoon Reprice Alerts and Updates
Below is a recap of instant
and updates issued via email and text alert to
MBS Live subscribers
Ongoing Potential, But Limited Incentive For Positive Reprices
What a world... MBS are at all-time highs, up about half a point on the day, and rate sheets aren't even a quarter of a point up on the day. MBS continue protesting: "this is all so... so sudden," and would probably appreciate a slower pace in the flight-to-safety rally. Even now, 10yr yields have gone flat to slightly higher since noon, and MBS have outperformed.
Ledges of benchmark stability provide footholds for MBS .
One notable reprice so far today, and despite the "limited incentive" environment, positive reprices are possible. We'd also warn that some lenders have a knack for negative reprices near the end of days like today for "pipeline control" reasons. We don't have any insider information in that regard, but just something to keep in mind if the lender in question is prone to such things.
Fannie 3.5's are in line with all time highs at 104-24. Fannie 3.0's have enough volume to mention, and are up 21 ticks on the day at 102-07. 10yr TSYs are down almost 12 bps at 1.6288. The Euro is in freefall, down to 1.238 now, German 10yr TSYs (Bunds) at 1.27.
Pain Trade Continues Grinding Yields Lower, MBS Ground Into Ceiling
Remember when 10yr yields hit 2.40-ish just over two months ago? Then remember when there was some uncertainty as to whether or not the 2.10-1.90 range was a thing of the past just before 10's broke from over 2.2 to under 2.1 in less than an hour? Pain Trade...
Remember when markets tentatively defended a 1.90% floor in 10yr yields in late April/early May, then retreated to defending the 1.80% floor as a "selling opportunity," only to have a bounce higher from 1.80% look like a good call for about 1 session before falling below 1.80% and never really making it back above, thus gently shattering the conceptions of a broader long-standing 1.80-2.10% range? Pain Trade...
Most recently, do you remember how 1.674 was the previous record low (not counting economic prehistory in the 50's, yes, we know) from 9/26/11 and that "surely," if 10's somehow magically approached 1.674 that it would be another great selling opportunity? And remember how we've seen 10yr yields give a half-hearted attempt at a bounce at 1.674 heading into 9am this morning an how we've since ratcheted lower, eventually grinding our way to a new low of 1.627 and current yields in the 1.63's? PAIN TRADE!
Maybe the reason that Treasuries keep acting to prove as many people wrong as possible is that folks are still thinking of them as Treasuries as opposed to how they actually end up trading: as "Diet Bunds." In other words, UST's are all about the spillover effect from European Benchmark debt. In that context, things aren't so painful. The real pain is in watching production MBS with little incentive to move higher from either the primary or secondary markets continue to grind into the ceiling near their all-time highs. For all the gains seen in Treasuries, MBS STILL aren't back to their mid-May highs... THAT'S painful (not the sort of pain we'd really complain about considering we're looking at all-time low rates, but still!). There are some charts showing how the two stack up in the MBS MID-DAY, if you missed it:
Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of the featured comments from the
MBS Live Dashboard's Live Chat feature
, utilized by hundreds of industry professionals each day.
: 4:02 PM - PHH
: 3:51 PM - Nexbank
: 3:33 PM - Provident Funding
"it's happening for a number of reasons but lower rates won't help"
"mandatory adjusters are massive"
"that is the main reason most LOs think Secondary is "Stealing" loan pricing"
"servicing would get hammered!"
"Imagine what below 3.25 would look like. scary stuff"
"Thanks...makes me feel better"
"Just look at your price difference between 3.75 and 3.625. Still showing a big buydown"
"not to say someone wouldn't portfolio it, but 3.25 is the new 3.75 from a secondary market liquidity standpoint, at least for now."
"below that implies 2.5 coupons"
"are you guys able to do better than 3.25% FHA? Not on my rate sheet below that but getting big rebate"
: 3:06 PM - Franklin American
: 3:05 PM - USBank
: 3:04 PM - NYCB
"WF approx .25% better"
: 1:58 PM - Wells Fargo
"our turn time has doubled"
""room" to reprice, but "incentive?" Anyone have any anecdotes to share about how capacity issues or how busy certain lenders are?"
"This morning rates were definitely not as as good as 5/17-18, but live pricing now is at least 15 - 18 bps better"
"feel free to infer a "?" at the end of that last chat if you wholeheartedly disagree."
"starting to review rate sheet data for consumer post and it's looking like we're not quite back to 5/17 - 5/18 rate sheets based on what I've seen so far, but improved on the day."
"Have to lock in freddie more than 30 days because they don't allow you to extend"
"104-22 is the new 103-22?"
"Locking in 30 - 40 day"
"Its a slow week in my office. It always seems to be slow this time of year as kids get out of school "
"Seems like MBS's often lag behind treasuries on days treasuries make huge moves. At this point I think it's all about Europe, doubt jobs # will be a big mover unless ridiculously good or bad."
"so, is the not so generous rate environment today (even with a plummeting 10 yr yield) a function of hedging against Friday's number perhaps?"
"not as much interest on 15yr coupons, which is why they don't move as much"
"30's are scorching yet the 15's are barely moving.....very interesting"
"no they wont charles. 1% i believe is the max they will allow"
"Does anyone know if FHA will allow a 3% deductable on the homeowners insurance policy?"
"volatility into the EU bond market close. EUR= hitting fresh lows as well"
"must not be a lot of sellers out there"
"50% takedown is big. usually runs 25-40% Rare to see above 40%"
"RTRS - DEALERS SUBMITTED $9.42 BLN OF TREASURIES FOR CONSIDERATION IN FED PURCHASE -NY FED "
"RTRS - FED BOUGHT $4.74 BILLION OF TREASURIES MATURING BETWEEN AUG 2020 AND FEB 2022 -NY FED "
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About the Author
Chief Operating Officer,
Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live
A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ...
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30 Yr FRM 4.25%
15 Yr FRM 3.45%
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.30%
30YR FNMA 4.5 107-10
30YR FNMA 5.0 108-24
30YR FNMA 5.5 110-22
Recent Housing Data:
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