MBS Live: MBS Afternoon Market Summary
We characterized yesterday as "logical and well contained" with the benefit of some hindsight.  While today's session wasn't "well contained," it was rather logical in that it went where you'd expect it to go given the events.  Merkel surprisingly supportive of Greece remaining in the Euro-zone?  Bond markets selling = logical.  ECB wires saying certain MoPo operation with certain Greek banks is on hold?  Bond markets bouncing back = logical.  FOMC Minutes from a meeting that took place BEFORE the recent round of Euro-drama ramped up showing no incrementally hawkish viewpoints?  Bond markets inferring Fed must be that much more willing to stimulate given recent events = logical.  All in all it led MBS to all-time highs yet again, and bond markets were generally able to eke out some minor gains.  As expected the morning data was overlooked and the FOMC minutes had a reasonable impact in a session that remained muted overall thanks to the long, dark cloud of Greek uncertainty stretching to elections in late June.  
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
FNMA 3.5
104-14 : +0-04
FNMA 4.0
106-05 : +0-04
FNMA 4.5
107-05 : +0-03
FNMA 5.0
108-15 : +0-01
GNMA 3.5
106-01 : +0-05
GNMA 4.0
108-24 : +0-05
GNMA 4.5
109-17 : +0-03
GNMA 5.0
110-19 : +0-02
FHLMC 3.5
104-07 : +0-03
FHLMC 4.0
105-28 : +0-04
FHLMC 4.5
106-22 : +0-02
FHLMC 5.0
107-26 : +0-01
Pricing as of 4:05 PM EST
Afternoon Reprice Alerts and Updates
Below is a recap of instant Reprice Alerts and updates issued via email and text alert to MBS Live subscribers this afternoon.

2:07PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Float Boat Stays Out To Sea as Fed Stays Willing to Stimulate
The just-released FOMC Minutes from the April 24-25 meeting generally confirmed that QE3 or at least an extension of existing "twist" bond buying remains on the table. MBS grabbed another few ticks of all-time high and 10's are down into the 1.76's. Volume has spiked somewhat, but not as much as it did earlier on the ECB/Greece news. So far, looking like a nominal extension of an existing rally. Positive reprice risks outweigh negative (which would only come due to "pipeline control" at this point).
1:20PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: MBS Hold Gains Ahead of FOMC Minutes
With some additional clarification from the ECB on the announcement that certain Greek banks would be temporarily cut off from monetary policy operations, markets seem to have found their pre-FOMC Minutes groove.

Treasuries and MBS have flattened out near their best levels of the day while equities are bouncing along their worst levels of the day. Everything is following German Bunds which bounced twice on a ceiling around 1.50 but now grind sideways around 1.47 after the ECB wires.

And that's a fair characterization of both sides of the market now: "grinding sideways" ahead of FOMC Minutes. Volume is lower than it was, but stable and, at least "present." We've seen one positive reprice so far. While more are not out of the question before FOMC Minutes, they're not as possible or as likely as they would be if MBS were stable or rallying after FOMC Minutes.
11:53AM  :  NMLS 2011 Annual Report Shows 375,654 Federally Registered MLOs
By the end of 2011, NMLS data show that there were:
-17,121 companies holding 33,124 active state licenses
-11,081 registered depository institutions and subsidiaries
-116,991 individual MLOs holding 226,010 active state licenses
-375,654 federally registered MLOs

See the full report
11:16AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Draghi to Greece: ECB Won't Bend Over Backwards To Keep You in EU
An earlier article had been making rounds on ECB President Mario Draghi's comments regarding a potential Greek Euro-zone exit. Effectively, Draghi said that he wants Greece to remain in the Euro-zone but that it ultimately was not the ECB's job to decide that. Another article noted Draghi as saying the ECB will not compromise on its principles to keep Greece in the EZ. In other words, there's a line in the sand.

Treasuries, stocks, and everything really, saw it's biggest volume spike of the day when a related wire hit moments ago:

RTRS- ECB STOPS MONETARY POLICY OPERATIONS TO SOME GREEK BANKS AS RECAPITALISATION NOT IN PLACE -CENBANK SOURCES

Bottom line, the ECB is wasting no time in showing Greece the line in the sand. MBS and Treasuries both hit their best levels of the day following the wire, but have since moderated a bit--now back to just 'strong' levels. We don't know where markets are going with this one yet, but wanted to let you know the cause of the recent spike. It could turn out to be more 'shock value' than anything, but we'll keep you posted.
Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of the featured comments from the MBS Live Dashboard's Live Chat feature, utilized by hundreds of industry professionals each day.

Michael Tadros  :  "REPRICE: 3:04 PM - Provident Funding Better"
Andrew Russell  :  "MG, nice post work today, I have enjoyed the reads"
Tom Schwab  :  "REPRICE: 2:19 PM - Franklin American Better"
Tom Schwab  :  "REPRICE: 2:18 PM - AMC Better"
Matthew Graham  :  "yeah, not much sense in "drastic improvements" given this morning's read on refi demand."
Mike Pennington  :  "Reprices???"
Steve Chizmadia  :  "I still think secondary holds back on drastic improvements from current levels in our ratesheets"
Matthew Graham  :  "looks increasingly possible. MBS like it"
Andrew Russell  :  "deep breath before you jump into the pool, MG?"
Matthew Graham  :  "10's pausing to check domestic session low yields at 1.765, now maybe moving lower, not totally clear yet."
Brett Boyke  :  "reprice territory"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - MOST FOMC MEMBERS SAW INFLATION DROPPING TO AT OR BELOW TARGET; ONE SAW UPSIDE RISKS IF CURRENT EASY POLICY KEPT MUCH BEYOND 2012 "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- BERNANKE ASKED COMMUNICATIONS SUBCOMMITTEE TO CONSIDER ENHANCING SUMMARY OF ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS-MINUTES "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- FED SAYS SOME MEMBERS PREFERRED NOT TO ADJUST FORWARD GUIDANCE UNTIL MORE CONFIDENT THAT OUTLOOK, RISKS HAD CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- FED SAYS STRAINS IN GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETS FROM EUROPE SITUATION CONTINUED TO POSE SIGNIFICANT DOWNSIDE RISKS "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - FED SAYS ABOUT HALF OF FOMC PARTICIPANTS BELIEVE EXCEPTIONALLY LOW FED FUNDS RATE WOULD BE APPROPRIATE AT LEAST UNTIL LATE 2014 "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - FED SAYS ONE FOMC PARTICIPANT SAID WOULD BE APPROPRIATE TO EXTEND OPERATION TWIST "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - SEVERAL FOMC MEMBERS IN APRIL SAW NEED FOR ADDITIONAL STIMULUS IF ECONOMY LOSES MOMENTUM OR DOWNSIDE RISKS TO FORECAST BECAME GREAT ENOUGH--FED MINUTES "
Victor Burek  :  "REPRICE: 1:55 PM - Nexbank Better"
Tom Bartlett  :  "Thanks MG. Taking that advise! I have locks all ready to go should markets start to negatively react in 30 minutes."
Matthew Graham  :  "no. I would consider the recent treasury move an obedient wing-man to a decisive short term test of 1.50% in EU Benchmarks"
Jason Wilborn  :  "would you consider the recent treasury move a decidive break below 1.8"
Matthew Graham  :  "TB, if I was trying to time a lock today, I'd set myself a line in the sand based on the lender in question. This would be a price at which I think that lender would possibly reprice for the worse. A sort of generic level of concern might be a quick drop past 104-06 following minutes. I'd consider how quickly that lender has acted in the past to freeze locks after market moves, especially SCHEDULED/KNOWN potential market movers, sort of like the last FOMC minutes where some rate sheets were r"
Matthew Graham  :  "trump yes, completely obviate, maybe not."
Andrew Horowitz  :  "again prior to hitting the fan over there, current events should trump all other blips"
Matthew Graham  :  "oh, I don't think markets care much about Fed's GDP projections or anything that would make the evening news. I think it was much more about the shift closer in time of the average FOMC member's time frame for policy tightening. "
Tom Bartlett  :  "so prudence would likely dictate locking now at record priices even though we could see an improvement if FOMC minutes do not surprise?"
Andrew Horowitz  :  "yeah but that forecast was prior to the elections and recent events, think we can pretty much agree that those crystal balls are in a thousand pieces right now"
Matthew Graham  :  "Big volume pop at 2pm, and about a third as high at 2:15pm with the presser. I remember being surprised at how much weight was carried by the forecast release."
Matthew Graham  :  "yes"
Andrew Horowitz  :  "wasn't there a presser after this last meeting also MG?"
Matthew Graham  :  "(also remember that "normal" for FOMC minutes has a wide range of movement potential. So "less than normal" doesn't necessarily mean small)"
Matthew Graham  :  "translation: yeah, it can be a mover, but less than normal."
Matthew Graham  :  "as mentioned in "day ahead" on the blog, the member forecasts saw the biggest jolt of volume on 4/25, and to whatever extent the minutes shed light on how those forecasts might evolve and/or be informed by the events that have transpired in the intervening time, so too might market participants find themselves better able to predict what the next policy announcement will hold, and trade it accordingly, but of course within the confines of EU-inspired uncertainty."
Matthew Graham  :  "I think any instance of FOMC Announcements/Forecasts/Minutes/Pressers should always be set aside as having market-moving potential. There aren't necessarily epic expectations for this one, but it's a better possibility than garden variety economic data."
Tom Bartlett  :  "your the best MG!! but I need it at INTERBANK!!"
Matthew Graham  :  "hey Tom, I think we might see a reprice"
Eric Franson  :  "REPRICE: 1:02 PM - Wells Fargo Better"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- ECB SAYS GREEK BANKS CONCERNED WILL REGAIN ACCESS TO STANDARD EUROSYSTEM REFINANCING OPS ONCE RECAPITALISATION FINALISED, WHICH EXPECT SOON "
Andrew Horowitz  :  "means they are on double secret probation "
Matthew Graham  :  "no idea what that means btw."
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - ECB CONFIRMS SOME UNDERCAPITALISED GREEK BANKS HAVE BEEN MOVED TO EMERGENCY LIQUIDITY ASSISTANCE "
Matthew Graham  :  "Minutes aren't really about the verbiage. This is the more detailed account of the information at the meeting that resulted in the verbiage on 4/25"
Andrew Horowitz  :  "no changes, remember this meeting took place before the "election" weekend"
Patrick Waldron  :  "Expected verbiage changes?"
Matthew Graham  :  "FOMC minutes in 1 hour"
Tom Bartlett  :  "Hi guys,I have 2 floating for 30 right now. Think we see a price improvement today?"
Jason Wilborn  :  "concerning Spain; If I can quote Bolo from Blood Sport - "YOU are Next!!""
Jason Wilborn  :  "price it in and lets move onto Spain"
Jason Wilborn  :  "everyone just needs to understand - Greece is done, they have no government and the people want out"

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