What had been an overwhelmingly narrow and orderly month-long rally in Treasuries got a moderate dose of volatility last week as Greece took center stage, once-again playing a major role in a global flight-to-safety.  Although other factors contributed to 10yr yields hitting the high 1.7's last week, without Greece, we're easily back over 1.90--a fact that seems like it might be important to remember at some point in the coming days and weeks.

No matter how much bond-market bullishness you chalk up to lackluster economic data, "QE3-ready" Fed policy, JPM trading losses, and other areas of concern in the Euro-zone (like Spain), the currently problem has to do with a high level of uncertainty about how politics will shake out in Greece.

It seems like a real possibility that the Greek far left are actually torn between staying in the Euro-zone and continuing to adhere to the EU/IMF bailout conditions.  Leftist leader Tsipras, and a majority of the Greek population (according to polls), want to stay in the EU, but no longer wish to abide by the austerity measures that indirectly secure their place in the EU.  We're pretty sure more than a few folks have explained that Greece can't have that cake and eat it too, but we're also pretty sure they're not getting the memo.

(Reuters) - Greece's radical leftist leader spurned an invitation from the president for a final round of coalition talks on Monday, all but ensuring a new election that he is poised to win.

Tsipras says he wants to keep Greece in the euro but the bailout must be torn up. European leaders say that would require them to cut off funding, allow Greece to go bankrupt and eject it from the European single currency.

And that's about all there is to it...  The financial world is on the edge of its collective seat, waiting to see what's going to happen in Greece, yet again.  The fact that the domestic data calendar is so silent this week should add focus to that endeavor.  Monday and Friday are essentially empty and the data seen during the intervening three days is almost entirely forgettable in the bigger picture, with the notable exception of FOMC Minutes from the April 25th Announcement at 2pm on Wednesday.

MBS Live Econ Calendar:

Week Of Mon, May 14 2012 - Fri, May 18 2012

Time

Event

Period

Unit

Forecast

Prior

Actual

Tue, May 15

08:30

Consumer Prices mm

Apr

%

+0.1

+0.3

--

08:30

Retail sales mm

Apr

%

+0.2

+0.8

--

08:30

Empire State Index

May

--

9.00

6.56

--

09:00

Foreign buying, T-bonds (TIC)

Mar

bl

--

15.35

--

09:00

Overall net capital flows (TIC)

Mar

bl

--

10.1

--

10:00

Business inventories mm

Mar

%

+0.4

+0.6

--

10:00

NAHB housing market indx

May

--

26

25

--

Wed, May 16

07:00

Mortgage refinance index

w/e

--

--

3734.8

--

07:00

Mortgage market index

w/e

--

--

710.4

--

08:30

Housing starts number mm

Apr

ml

.683

.654

--

08:30

Building permits: number

Apr

ml

.726

.764

--

09:15

Capacity utilization mm

Apr

%

79.0

78.6

--

09:15

Industrial output mm

Apr

%

+0.6

0.0

--

14:00

FOMC Minutes From Apr 24/25th Meeting 

--

--

--

--

--

Thu, May 17

08:30

Initial Jobless Claims

w/e

k

365

367

--

08:30

Continued jobless claims

w/e

ml

3.24

3.229

--

10:00

Leading index chg mm

Apr

%

+0.1

+0.3

--

10:00

Philly Fed Index

May

--

10.0

8.5

--