In terms of economic data, the day kicks off with the more important
of the two reports offered: Consumer Sentiment at 9:55am. The forecast
calls for a minor improvement 72.5 to 73.0. Mere minutes later at 10am
is the New Home Sales report, expected to show an improvement from
307,000 to 315,000. While housing/mortgage-related economic data is
always interesting for copy-room conversation, we've come to be almost
completely dismissive of the market-moving capabilities of any report
with the words "home sales" in the title, with "new" being even less
exciting than "existing."
That's not to say that markets will not move today. In fact,
quite a bit of volatility is possible, even if it's not probable.
Greece theoretically kicks off their efforts toward Private Sector
Involvement in the current bailout. Reuters has a great write-up on the
festivities:
LONDON, Feb 23
(IFR) - Private sector involvement (PSI) in the second Greek bailout is
expected to get underway on Friday, according to sources, in an effort
to write off EUR107bn of Greece's debt -- the biggest sovereign
restructuring ever attempted.
The country's financial adviser
is Lazard, but Deutsche Bank and HSBC are the dealer managers on the
EUR206bn debt swap, which includes the controversial retroactive
collective action clauses (CACs) approved by the Greek parliament.
Greece
must get nearly all of the debt held in private hands to take part in
the swap in order to start receiving the EUR130bn of bailout monies that
was agreed this week.
READ THE WHOLE ARTICLE....
Whether or not we're likely to see any pertinent developments, we're not sure, but we could conceive a rather wide spectrum
of bond market reaction depending on the nature of any headlines we do
see.
Add a few Fed speakers into the mix as well--four actually. Voters
Williams and Dudley at 10:45 and 1:30 respectively as well as non-voters
Bullard and Plosser at 11:35 and 1:30 speaking at the 2012 US Monetary
Policy Forum in NYC. Much like the economic data earlier in the
morning, we're not expecting much market-moving potential from the Fed
speakers unless they say something that differs greatly from
expectations. With that in mind, Williams should be middle of the road,
to slightly dovish, Plosser won't bash QE, but won't endorse any more
due to "improving conditions," Bullard will similarly say more purchases
aren't necessary unless things worsen, and might throw more jabs at MBS
by saying the Fed's portfolio should be Treasuries only, and finally
Dudley, in contrast, should be relatively unconcerned about inflation,
and moderately concerned about housing and employment--certainly the
most dovish of the group.
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MBS Live Econ Calendar:
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|
Week Of Tue, Feb 21 2012 - Fri, Feb 24 2012
|
|
Time
|
Event
|
Period
|
Unit
|
Forecast
|
Prior
|
Actual
|
|
Tue, Feb 21
|
|
08:30
|
National Activity Index
|
Jan
|
--
|
--
|
0.17
|
+0.22
|
|
13:00
|
2-Yr Note Auction
|
--
|
bl
|
35.0
|
--
|
--
|
|
Wed, Feb 22
|
|
07:00
|
Mortgage market index
|
w/e
|
--
|
--
|
801.8
|
766.1
|
|
07:00
|
Mortgage market: change
|
w/e
|
%
|
--
|
-1.0%
|
-4.5
|
|
07:00
|
MBA Purchase Index
|
w/e
|
--
|
--
|
166.6
|
161.8
|
|
07:00
|
Mortgage refinance index
|
w/e
|
--
|
--
|
4538.0
|
4322.0
|
|
07:00
|
Refinancing: change
|
w/e
|
%
|
--
|
0.8%
|
-4.8
|
|
07:00
|
MBA Purchase: change
|
w/e
|
%
|
--
|
-8.4%
|
-2.9
|
|
07:00
|
MBA 30-yr mortgage rate
|
w/e
|
%
|
--
|
4.08%
|
4.09
|
|
10:00
|
Existing home sales
|
Jan
|
ml
|
4.65
|
4.61
|
4.57
|
|
10:00
|
Exist. home sales % chg
|
Jan
|
%
|
1.9%
|
5.0%
|
+4.3
|
|
13:00
|
5-Yr Note Auction
|
--
|
bl
|
35.0
|
--
|
--
|
|
Thu, Feb 23
|
|
08:30
|
Initial Jobless Claims
|
w/e
|
k
|
354
|
351-R
|
351
|
|
08:30
|
Continued jobless claims
|
w/e
|
ml
|
3.46
|
3.426
|
3.392
|
|
10:00
|
Monthly Home Price mm
|
Dec
|
%
|
--
|
1.0%
|
0.7
|
|
10:00
|
Monthly Home Price yy
|
Dec
|
%
|
--
|
-1.8%
|
-0.8
|
|
11:00
|
KC Fed manufacturing
|
Feb
|
--
|
--
|
13
|
20
|
|
13:00
|
7-Yr Note Auction
|
--
|
bl
|
29.0
|
--
|
--
|
|
Fri, Feb 24
|
|
09:55
|
U.Mich sentiment
|
Feb
|
--
|
73.0
|
72.5
|
--
|
|
09:55
|
U Mich conditions
|
Feb
|
--
|
80.3
|
79.6
|
--
|
|
09:55
|
U.Mich expectation
|
Feb
|
--
|
68.5
|
68.0
|
--
|
|
10:00
|
New home sales-units mm
|
Jan
|
ml
|
.315
|
.307
|
--
|
|
10:00
|
New home sales chg mm
|
Jan
|
%
|
2.6%
|
--
|
--
|