30 YEAR FIXED NOTE RATE  5.5%

LOCK RECOMMENDATIONS

        - LESS THAN 2 WEEK CLOSING ................    LOCK

        - 2-4 WEEK CLOSINGS.                ...............   FLOAT

        - 4+ WEEK CLOSING                  ................    FLOAT

        - CONSERVATIVE CAVEAT         ................    RATES ARE AT THE BOTTOM OF TRADING RANGE.                                                                            CONVENTIONAL WISDOM BASED ON TECHNICAL DATA SUGGESTS LOCK

 

 After reviewing data from yesterday, and seeing this morning's cautiousness in the markets, I am revising my recommendation to LOCK this morning.  Of particular concern is the ADP job report coming in double expectations.  Granted, the ADP report is usually wrong, and usually on the high side, but nevertheless, it's "direction" has mirrored the direction of the employment situation reports.  Since the analysts haven't revised their consensus upward (some have), technically, there is some support for the jobs number to come in higher than expected.  So the safest thing is to lock short term.

Still, no one knows exactly what will happen.  If the employment data and consumer sentiment are worse than expected, we will likely get a benefit to rates.

In Mortgage bonds this morning, the FNMA 30 year 6.0 is relatively unchanged.  Prices are just slightly higher 2/32nds on the day which has led most lenders to increase prices by .125% this morning.

As the MBS's are still well below their moving averages, expect good economic news tomorrow to have a much greater impact than bad economic news due to technical factors. 

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