Wise man once say "play the range until the range plays you."  To whatever extent we want to act on that premise, we might have feared a short-lived spat of better prices around noon today.  But with those levels around 100-14 constituting the upper limits of the range, or at the very least, a tough pivot point, we were either destined for further positivity into the afternoon, or a correction back into the thick of the range, or even right back to the other side of it.  Sadly, that's what we have.

So if you were among those that took advantage of reprices for the better, or otherwise had access to rate sheets published late enough to capture some of the rally, one would now logically need to fear the opposite effect with the arrival of this opposite price action.  In other words, the risk has moved from reprices for the better to reprices for the worse.

BUT!  Before you read that as a hard and fast "sky is falling!  Lock 'EM Now!"  sort of message, keep in mind that in the same way we wouldn't let the turn around at the highs surprise us, we'd also want to have faith in the lows being similarly significant at the moment.  Plain and simple: the recent fall from the highs is just another reason to expect the weaker side of the range to hold up as support.  This means the upper 3.83 range and 100-04 are more likely than not to provide some sort of support in the face of falling prices and higher yields. 

So we throw the caveat out there that jumpy, ahead-of-the-curve type lenders might take a price improvement back or ding you for a small reprice for the worse, any lenders who are slightly more patient may very well not reprice at all as the range continues to hold up.  I REPEAT: THE RANGE CONTINUES TO HOLD UP!  That makes this a much more timid announcement that reprices could occur.  They MIGHT occur, but they wouldn't be widespread or significant.

BOTTOM LINE: PREVIOUS SUGGESTIONS REMAIN THAT THE RANGE THIS WEEK CONTINUES TO NARROW AHEAD OF THE DATA EVERYONE IS WAITING FOR TOMORROW AM IN THE FORM OF NFP.  If the range is broken, you'll hear it here first, but until that happens, play the range until the range plays you.