And again, although this will prompt a few lenders to reprice for the worse, if you're floating, what type of price change are you floating in hopes of?  What sort of data or news event are you waiting on to drive markets? 

I ask because for whatever small portion of your pipelines remain floating after the last few weeks, the main driver of sentiment and directionality would have to be the FOMC.  So you're playing the risk of that event--hoping for a brief pop in MBS prices in exchange for the risk of what we're experiencing now: a slow, sideways "leak-out" of prices and the small occasional reprice for the worse.

MBS have been lower today, but not by much.  The 4.5 is currently down 4 ticks on the day at 101-04.

Tsy's on the other hand are right in line with their weakest levels of the day at 3.550 and have bumped into this support perhaps more times today than any intraday support level in recent memory.  Over and over again, yields have been ground mercilessly right back to the exact same level.  Despite the low volume, markets are sending a clear message of where they want to be ahead of the FOMC statement and in lieu of any data.

Lastly, note in the chart above that stocks have indeed closed over their long term resistance at 1110.00.  There's a chance, that to whatever extent fixed income actually cares about equities technicals on a day like today that the strength in stocks is helping keep yields pinned to the ceiling.  You don't often see the stock lever in play like it was after the noon hour today where the movements in stocks LED tsy movements by 10-20 minutes. 

It may mean nothing, but at least you'd want to pay attention to the S&P when it fails to break through 12 month+ resistance for over a month and finally breaks out on the week of an FOMC statement.  This year has largely been one of "tuning out" the stock lever relative to years past, but some of the connections last week, and now today, in combination with the important technical levels and important data this week suggest that we put this indicator back in the repertoire this week.