Posted
Even leaving personal opinions completely out of it, it's so much easier to watch Bernanke respond to the more vitriolic members of the house and senate these days. It doesn't seem like there's a lot the Bunning's of the world can say to phase the guy. Maybe that's because Bernanke is confident that his nomination is confirmed or maybe he simply doesn't care any more if it isn't! Whatever the case, all markets are down today on the uncertainty created by this, tsy supply announcement today, and NFP looming tomorrow.
Same story in tsy's
Zooming out to see where we can derive tech support in long term. Here's why I say 101-28 and 101-22...
And in stocks and 10yr, hoping 1110 holds today and 3.38 holds as support by 3pm marking.
As far as stocks, latest analysis suggests the following range continues for the next 27,000 years...
Ok, maybe not 27,000 years, but at least until more forceful data comes in.
Speaking of more forceful data, today being tsy supply announcement day has had a noticeable steepening effect on the curve. Usually not good for MBS and today no exception with 4.5's down 7 ticks at 101-28. Today dies down a bit now, though if interpretations of the confirmation hearing are extreme, then the markets can react in extreme fashion. The data on the day wraps up with Money supply and Fed Balance sheet so we can see how they've been buying.
But the big daddy, of course, remains NFP tomorrow, and any movements inside, or even outside the range only hold a fraction of the meaning they would otherwise hold in NFP's absence. For now, we're trending up in the past few hours, so join everyone else in the known financial world in watching and waiting.