MBS OPEN /ALERT: Jobless Claims Improve, MBS Down

awesome....all the people i sold in the past 10 days and had to wait for them to sign their GFE and TIL before I could order appraisal and get the loan set up are unlocked....Their rates are now gone. Good job boys....another smooth move!

MIchael, seems the MDIA has kicked us both in the #*#*!

First one to mention the evil empire wins the door prize. I still am operating under the assumption that the entire financial meltdown was orchestrated by one investment bank whose economists figured out that they could make $3B in Q3 2009 trading bonds if all the subprime loans went bad. Call me paranoid.

Any doubts - follow the link http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=5274961n&tag=related;photovideo

MG, it looks like we areabout ready to drop below he 100 day moving average onthe 4.5. What are your thoughts?

Last time it broke through was AUG. 24th, if I remember well enough, rates were no where near what they are now. Bad times ahead for MBS???

In another hour most of our lenders issue rates...wouldn't mind a little rebound. Anyone else hear about the killer real estate market in CA? What a joke. Realtors saying they're getting 10-20 offers on a home, a significant amount of transactions are in cash etc. Well lets have a little clarity: The first time home buyer welfare check is about to expire so I think it is safe to say there would be deluge of biz this sept/oct. Second, how many people have 200-500k in cash to buy a home....not many so those numbers will not last forever. Third the reason for the low inventory-no one wants to sell at a 50% discount when they dont have to, and lenders are holding back inventory. Fourth-borrowers are making offers they can't qualify for. My purchase biz mostly comes after an offer is made, and the borrower has been pre-approved with the realtor they are working with. They want a better deal, so I do the app and BAM-no way they will qaulify. Happens 30%-40% of the time. Scary thing is I see more and more realtors setting up contracts that have no loan contingency period. Some of these people could go FHA, but that is not what they were looking to do....so a nice little surprise is waiting for them at closing. So the excitment over the housing industry is a classic example of Americans only looking at the sound bite, and not digging deeper for the story. Also have you told your realtors about the new guidelines for a 45% DTI? Or how about the Fed closing down it's purchase of MBS? These are all factors playing into the home numbers. Unemployment is another thing people think are is better according to the news reports. I would agree the rate of job loss is significantly down, but there is no job hiriring (at least in CA). Also, wages are down, hours worked are down. So what is driving the economy: the government and the fed which have pumped upwards of 15-trillion into the economy. OF COURSE we are going to improve off the lows, but what happens when that money goes away. And to their credit, the fed mentioned this. We produce nothing and spend money we don't have-that is our economy. It's not comming back, so we have to transition into making stuff before we'll see the economy grow and this will take a long, long time.

sounds like you pretty much summed it up Edgar. I am seeing similar situations, except, I have no purchase business, very odd with our rates being so competitive. I know a few realtors and they are sating it is incredibly slow. what gives?

Gee Edgar' I might have to go play in traffic now. We have had some good BAD NEWS in the last hour or so and the MBS has turned to green. Need some rate improvements.

Edgar - Tightening credit guidelines and increasing of interest rates cannot happen at the same time which is clearly why the government can not and will not step away from the housing/mortgage market in 2010. Recovery is not possible if they do. I do not want any flames from all you rebels who say let the economy bottom out/explode. Save that for a Keanu Reeves movie. Purchases are going to explode in a outstanding way the next few years. Make sure you are at a solid place and you will reap the benefits.

Matthew- do you talk that way on a Friday night when you are out at a strip club with the guys? Damn... :)

Andrew - are you applying to be the next loan originator trainer/guru/cheerleader? ROFL ;-)

@ Andrew - Matt would maintain his eloquence even if he imbibed in the presence of an ecdysiast among his companions. ;-)

GLAD WE CAN LOCK LOANS AS SOON AS WE WANT TO. NO WAITING!

Oh Jeff, I know...i have been having to wait for the REGZ disclosure period and it's making it harder to get business done...

Hammer, you handsome devil, I knew you would emerge from the dust to reclaim the title... I am going to go door to door like Chris Farley, but this time, to all mortgage broker/banker/retail operations to give motivational speeches so we can avoid eating a steady diet of government cheese and living in a van down by the river...

Matt- Piping down the valleys wild, piping songs of pleasant glee, on a cloud I saw a child, and he laughing said to me... "What the hell are you doing in the mortgage business still you retard?"