So Far This Am...
- Dollar Falls After G7 Meeting.
- "Strong Dollar" talk may have contributed to bond rallies last week
- MBS mostly unchanged this AM to a few ticks better at 101-24
- tsy's in the green a bit on the long end. 10yr at 3.204
- most European stocks fractionally higher, most asian stocks mixed to lower, Oil at $69.
- Tsy futures falling a few ticks from initial highs, but volume picking up in support of 119-09
Day Ahead (week ahead)
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10:00am
- ISM Non-Mfg Index
- previous reading 48.4, expectations for today's reading 50.0
- 1:00pm
- 10yr TIPS Auction
- September prepay report will be out this week as well as another "more-interesting-than-it-used-to-be" Fed MBS balance sheet.
- Spiky rallies seen as unlikely
- market showed it's hand Friday with clear bounce off all time highs
- Be on the lookout for aggressive rate sheets and ring the register where appropriate.
The Week That Was
- Day after day of spiky chopatility as we watched and waited for NFP.
- But then on Thursday, most of the NFP trade occurred a day early!'
- Friday itself merely served as a confirmation or rejection of the "on the come" betting from Thursday
- More or less, Thursday was validated. Volume supported, and prices were very much in line with previous close
- More sober and professional recap here.
- Berliner's excellent take on the week: here
- MG's analogy-based psychiatric analysis of MBS last week (implicitly less sober?): here.
MBS Market Alerts
