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MBS Day Ahead: Turkey Causing Road Rage; Another Look at Moving...

MBS RECAP: Bonds Dragged Into Snowball Rally by Stocks (Not Turkey...

MBS Day Ahead: Foreign Markets Helping Bonds (Not Turkey)

MBS RECAP: Bonds Fight Off Sharper Retreat Ahead of Data

MBS Day Ahead: With or Without Turkey, Bonds Face Same Challenges...

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Economic Environment Depressing Millennal Homeownership

Mortgage Rates Barely Lower Despite Bond Market Cues

Builder Confidence Retreats Once Again

Fulfillment, Non-QM Products; Corporate Name Changes; What is...

Mortgage Applications: Purchase Volume Declines, Refis Stabilize

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Florida, Houston Delinquencies Still Reflecting 2017 Storms; Rates Edge Higher Ahead of Retail Sales Data

Published: 8/14/2018

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MBS Day Ahead: Turkey Causing Road Rage; Another Look at Moving Average Misdirection

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by Matthew Graham on August 16 2018, 10:34 AM

I found myself driving in the truck for more than an hour yesterday evening--long enough to hear the news cycle repeated several times. During that time, I was emphatically warned about this " new " and " surprising " issue of Turkey's...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Dragged Into Snowball Rally by Stocks (Not Turkey)

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by Matthew Graham on August 15 2018, 4:01 PM

Headlines continue overstating the connection between US market movements and the financial drama in Turkey. Today was especially damaging to the case for correlation as Turkish Lira improved significantly even as US stocks and bond yields sank. The conventional...
MBS Day Ahead: Foreign Markets Helping Bonds (Not Turkey)

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by Matthew Graham on August 15 2018, 9:45 AM

From New York, traders have been looking east for at least some level of inspiration from Turkish market volatility. As we've discussed exhaustively, however, that's far from the only game in town. Today brings fresh evidence. In looking east...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Fight Off Sharper Retreat Ahead of Data

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by Matthew Graham on August 14 2018, 4:30 PM

Bonds began the day in moderately weaker territory as Turkish tensions eased overnight. That certainly wasn't the only game in town as far as market movers were concerned though! On several occasions throughout the day, US bond markets could be seen...
MBS Day Ahead: With or Without Turkey, Bonds Face Same Challenges

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by Matthew Graham on August 14 2018, 9:24 AM

Turkish Lira bounced in the overnight session--not in any epic fashion, but enough to result in a bit of spillover for stocks/bonds. 10yr yields rose as high as 2.9022 before cooling back down. Notably, yields fell even as Lira maintained its token recovery...
MBS RECAP: Mismatch Between Headlines and Bonds

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by Matthew Graham on August 13 2018, 5:29 PM

Another day, another chance for market watchers and pundits of all types to make mountains out of Turkish molehills. Yes, the financial crisis in Turkey is important and it's still a thing , but no... it's not the most important market mover for...
MBS Week Ahead: Drama's Diminishing Returns

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by Matthew Graham on August 13 2018, 9:34 AM

Did anyone else have to sit through the drug addiction video (or was it a book?) in grade school (or was it middle school?) where the main character kept returning to this amazing fantasy of driving an exotic sports car. Each time, he had to drive farther...
MBS RECAP: The T-Word

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by Matthew Graham on August 10 2018, 5:25 PM

Tired of hearing about Turkey yet? This is what happens when fairly quiet markets are interrupted by a thunderous roar from an unexpected place. Newscasters, analysts, and armchair economists you'll talk to over the weekend are all happy to finally...
MBS Day Ahead: Let's Talk Turkey

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by Matthew Graham on August 10 2018, 10:08 AM

Turkey (the country, not the lunch meat) is the 17th biggest economy in the world in terms of GDP. That's roughly 20% bigger than the next closest country, Saudi Arabia, and 4 times bigger than Greece. All that to say, Turkey isn't a completely...
MBS RECAP: Good Day For Bonds as PPI Stokes CPI Bets

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by Matthew Graham on August 09 2018, 4:40 PM

Have you heard the one about the Turkish debt crisis? Things are pretty bad for Turkey and the currency is indeed in freefall, but until the charts do something different, they're not yet making a compelling case for a "risk-off" connection...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Look Like They Might Try Again

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by Matthew Graham on August 09 2018, 9:42 AM

In the short-term (past few weeks), the trend has not been our friend. After breaking above a narrow, sideways range, yields had been pushing higher and even crested 3% on the first 2 days of the month. Over the past week, however, they've been trying...
MBS RECAP: Well-Receive Treasury Auction: Chicken or Egg?

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by Matthew Graham on August 08 2018, 6:09 PM

This week continued in the fine tradition of of ultra-light summertime volume and liquidity, but today's contribution was a bit more worthwhile than the previous 2 entries. Today, at least, had the 10yr Treasury auction--the heretofore most important...
MBS Day Ahead: Key Levels to Watch in Stocks and Bonds

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by Matthew Graham on August 08 2018, 9:50 AM

After spending most of July in a narrow, sideways trend, bonds broke higher in yield and looked like they would begin a classic range-breakout sell-off. In other words, momentum had been sideways and because they broke higher in yield out of that range...
MBS RECAP: Recent Winning Streak Breaks Down

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by Matthew Graham on August 07 2018, 3:54 PM

Bonds enjoyed a nice little winning streak beginning last Thursday. As of yesterday, it had carried 10yr Treasury yields below the important 2.95% technical level. From a technician's point of view, this initiated a " test " of the pivot...
MBS Day Ahead: When Moving Averages Converge!

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by Matthew Graham on August 07 2018, 9:53 AM

I received an interesting question yesterday as to whether or not there was any significance in the fact that 25, 50, and 100 day moving averages are right on top of each other on the 10yr Treasury chart. I'm not too shy about saying that I think...

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Florida, Houston Delinquencies Still Reflecting 2017...

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MBS Day Ahead: With or Without Turkey, Bonds Face Same...

Turkish Lira bounced in the overnight session--not in any epic fashion, but enough to result in a bit of spillover for stocks/bonds. 10yr yields rose as...
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Another day, another chance for market watchers and pundits of all types to make mountains out of Turkish molehills. Yes, the financial crisis in Turkey...
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Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 4.64%
|
15 Yr FRM 4.14%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.38%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 103-26 (-0-01)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 105-23 (-0-01)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 107-00 (-0-03)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps -2.60%
|
Refinance Index -3.69%
|
Purchase Index -1.98%

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