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MBS RECAP: Further Improvement Amid Low Volume Backdrop

MBS MID-DAY: Holding Gains Amid Very Quiet Conditions

The Week Ahead: Limited Data and Treasury Auctions

MBS RECAP: Surprising Post-NFP Rally Just a Consolation Prize...

How Are MBS Possibly Improving After the Jobs Report?!

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MBS RECAP: Further Improvement Amid Low Volume Backdrop

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December 09 2013, 4:05 PM

Just a heads up that we're 4 ticks off the highs of the day in Fannie 4.0s, though only 2-3 ticks off rate sheet print time levels depending on the lender. That almost certainly precludes any price-based reprice risk unless we were to see another...
MBS MID-DAY: Holding Gains Amid Very Quiet Conditions

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December 09 2013, 11:05 AM

Treasuries were docile overnight. Volume was fairly light, as was motivation, with the most significant trading cues coming from the observation of other trades (rather than economic data and events). Slightly weaker German Industrial Production and Eurozone...
The Week Ahead: Limited Data and Treasury Auctions

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by Matthew Graham on December 09 2013, 7:12 AM

Last Week - MBS sold off Mon-Thu, then bounced after Friday's Jobs Report - Bounce was paradoxical on stronger Jobs. Lots of potential reasons - Bond markets were defensively prepared for strong NFP - Friday was the high point of a week that was decidedly...
MBS RECAP: Surprising Post-NFP Rally Just a Consolation Prize?

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December 06 2013, 4:05 PM

MBS Live : MBS Afternoon Market Summary "So long MBS and thanks for putting up with all the abuse!" That might be a caption for today's Employment report. In a way, it's like a consolation prize for mortgage-backed-securities, which continue to look relatively...
How Are MBS Possibly Improving After the Jobs Report?!

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December 06 2013, 11:05 AM

- Sentiment 82.5 vs 76.0 forecast - Current conditions 97.9 vs 90.0 forecast - Both at highest levels since July - Market Reaction: traders are probably discounting a lot of this positivity due to gas prices. Bond markets head-faked toward weaker territory...
The Day Ahead: Jobs Report to Read Verdict on December Taper Risk

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by Matthew Graham on December 06 2013, 1:08 AM

Yesterday - Bond Markets extended losing streak after stronger GDP and Jobless Claims - MBS held their ground fairly well considering the data - Charts ended up looking like a choppy extension of Wednesday afternoon - Rate sheets were unchanged Today...
MBS RECAP: Bond Markets Weather Today's Data with Eye on Tomorrow's

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December 05 2013, 4:05 PM

The technical dominoes to which we alluded in the last update have started falling. 10's broke their ceiling and have ticked up briefly to 2.877. MBS shed a few more ticks in response. Although there's nothing significant happening behind the...
MBS MID-DAY: Treading Water After Morning Sell-Off

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December 05 2013, 12:33 PM

Following this morning's shake-up over the stronger-than-expected GDP and Jobless Claims data, bond market trading has proceeded in a rather uneventful fashion, but has slowly and steadily wound its way back in a more positive direction. Some of this...
The Day Ahead: A Gorilla Analogy for Momentum on NFP Week

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by Matthew Graham on December 05 2013, 1:18 AM

Yesterday - Bond markets sold off at the outset on stronger ADP Employment Data - 10's went sideways and MBS kept selling until 930am - Sellers were exhausted by then, and weaker ISM data at 10am helped pave over the floor in prices - MBS were then sideways...
MBS RECAP: Uneventful Afternoon and a Surprise Guest

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December 04 2013, 4:05 PM

Fannie 4.0s are right in line with the prices seen immediately following this morning's weaker-than-expected ISM data (103-16). They've held between there and 103-13 ever since. If anything, they're erring toward the highs as we work our way...
MBS MID-DAY: Much Weaker After ADP; ISM Not Much Help

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December 04 2013, 11:05 AM

- New Home Sales 444k vs 428 forecast, 354k previously - Single Family Sales +25.4 pct, biggest rise since 1980 - Median prices $245.8k, down 0.6 pct year over year Market Reaction: Taken in and of itself, this would have a negative impact on MBS prices...
The Day Ahead: ADP Employment, New Home Sales, and ISM Services

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by Matthew Graham on December 04 2013, 7:30 AM

esterday - Data-free day proved frustrating for MBS - Despite Treasury Improvements, MBS lost ground - Lenders repriced in the afternoon, rates at or near 2-mo+ highs - Several potential problems 'ganging-up' on MBS, some will expire by Friday Today ...
MBS RECAP: More Underperformance Turns Green Day Red

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December 03 2013, 4:05 PM

Fannie 4.0s have shed a few more ticks and are now down 2 on the day at 103-29. Fannie 3.5s are down 1 at 100-10. Both are the lowest levels of the day and both speak to the incrementally increased possibility of negative reprices. The losses still aren...
MBS MID-DAY: Morning Swoon and Bounce Back; Detroit Bankruptcy a Factor?

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December 03 2013, 11:05 AM

MBS and Treasuries both put in their best levels of the morning at 9am. They'd weakened moderately at first, but have been more serious about it in the past 10 minutes. Fannie 3.5s are far enough off from a few early lenders' rate sheet print...
The Day Ahead: Chance for Technical Support Ahead of Data Glut

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by Matthew Graham on December 03 2013, 7:36 AM

Yesterday - Bond markets began the session weaker in Asia, weaker still in Europe - MBS opened 8 ticks (.25) lower and traded sideways until 10am ISM data - After ISM, MBS lost another eighth quickly and another eighth slowly - Fannie 3.5s half a point...

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