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MBS RECAP: Quietest Day of The Week Despite Several Interesting...

MBS Day Ahead: Bond Traders Eyeing The Exits As Flat Week Winds...

MBS RECAP: Bonds Modestly Stronger, But Sideways Theme Remains

MBS Day Ahead: Clearly a Waiting Game, but For How Long?

MBS RECAP: Summertime Sideways

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New Home Sales Rebound; Prices Crush Previous Record

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Mortgage Rates Sideways to Slightly Lower

FHFA Home Prices Continue Strong Gains

Prepayment Rate and Refinanceable Population Have Both Soared

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New Home Sales Rebound; Prices Crush Previous Record; Diversity's Homeownership Impact

Published: 6/23/2017

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MBS RECAP: Quietest Day of The Week Despite Several Interesting Tidbits

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by Matthew Graham on June 23 2017, 5:32 PM

We've been watching the intraday trading ranges in bond markets to keep an eye on just how flat things have been in the wake of last Wednesday's big trading day (due to econ data and the Fed). "Inside day" is a term that comes up when...
MBS Day Ahead: Bond Traders Eyeing The Exits As Flat Week Winds Down

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by Matthew Graham on June 23 2017, 8:59 AM

You've heard of "innocent until proven guilty." This week of trading in bond markets has been "flat and boring until proven volatile." For many, it's the first full week of summer. For others, it's the week where their...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Modestly Stronger, But Sideways Theme Remains

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by Matthew Graham on June 22 2017, 4:43 PM

Yesterday's recap went into some detail about the market phenomenon that can result in intense periods of sideways momentum (and trader apathy) during certain weeks of certain summertime months. Long-story short, this week was a great candidate for...
MBS Day Ahead: Clearly a Waiting Game, but For How Long?

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by Matthew Graham on June 22 2017, 8:53 AM

With the trading activity seen in the wake of last Wednesday's high-volume/high-movement day, it's clear that bond markets have been in a holding pattern ever since. As can be seen in today's chart, and as we discussed in detail on MBS Live...
MBS RECAP: Summertime Sideways

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by Matthew Graham on June 21 2017, 4:50 PM

With the taper tantrum in 2013 and Brexit in 2016, two of our most recent examples of summertime bond trading have been pulled very far from historical trends. Namely, the summer months tend to see narrower ranges and flatter trajectories compared to...
MBS Day Ahead: Oil's Impact on Markets: a Slippery Slope

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by Matthew Graham on June 21 2017, 9:17 AM

Here we are again with oil falling into new lows for the year and suddenly, it's the inspiration for everything according to most mainstream financial media. Slippery puns aside, don't fall for it! Sure, oil prices matter. And they can even have...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Erase Yesterday's Weakness Without Much Help

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by Matthew Graham on June 20 2017, 4:54 PM

Today had no significant news or events on the calendar, thus leaving traders to watch other traders for cues. To some extent, several Fed speakers got some attention, but the best we can do here is to pick out only the comments that reinforce the rally...
MBS Day Ahead: Still Fighting to Hold The Range

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by Matthew Graham on June 20 2017, 9:08 AM

The week continues to offer little by way of scheduled economic data/events to stir the pot, thus leaving us to observe the underlying biases among traders (if there are any). So far, those biases are hard to detect. Most options are being left open ...
MBS RECAP: Fed's Dudley Smacks Down Bond Bulls

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by Matthew Graham on June 19 2017, 5:06 PM

Right out of the gate this morning, NY Fed President William Dudley set a rather negative tone for bond markets with several comments that essentially smacked down some of the recent low-rate momentum. Here are the newswires in question, with each followed...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Still in Limbo, Despite Recent Victories

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by Matthew Graham on June 19 2017, 9:40 AM

The past 3 trading sessions marked 3 of the 5 lowest closes for 10yr yields in 2017. Friday's strength did a nice job of pushing back against a potential bounce that took shape after last week's Fed announcement. That strength helped build the...
MBS RECAP: Negative Housing Sets Positive Tone for Bonds

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by Matthew Graham on June 16 2017, 5:04 PM

Today was destined to be a sideways grind at slightly weaker levels for bond markets. This would have extended the theme that had been in place since Wednesday's FOMC events. The weakness probably wouldn't have erased Wednesday's gains. The...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds May Not Decide Much Today, And That Would be a Good Thing

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by Matthew Graham on June 16 2017, 9:09 AM

Bond markets may not give a stellar performance today, offering resounding confirmation of an ongoing rally. Conversely, they're not likely to rise enough to raise serious questions about an ongoing rally. When it comes to getting a sense of potential...
MBS RECAP: Post-Fed Weakness Brings Bonds Back to The Gap

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by Matthew Graham on June 15 2017, 4:26 PM

To be fair to the Fed, they didn't really cause most of today's weakness. Bond markets already showed their hand with respect to yesterday's Fed events--essentially endorsing the rate hike, the forecasts, and the balance sheet plan as something...
MBS Day Ahead: Big Discussion About Big-Picture Bond Market Trends

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by Matthew Graham on June 15 2017, 9:34 AM

Yesterday's rally was a potential game changer for the "great push back" of 2017 . That's not the official term for the past several months of general positivity in bond markets, but the underlying phenomenon is as official as it gets...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Rally on Data's Truth. Fed's Spin Mostly Ignored

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by Matthew Graham on June 14 2017, 5:34 PM

In a weird way, today's Fed announcement came out right at 8:30am when Core CPI dropped to 1.7%, falling well short of the 1.9% median forecast (year-over-year). While the Fed prefers PCE as an inflation metric, the two tend to hang out pretty close...

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MBS Commentary

MBS Day Ahead: Bond Traders Eyeing The Exits As Flat...

You've heard of "innocent until proven guilty." This week of trading in bond markets has been "flat and boring until proven volatile...
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MBS RECAP: Bonds Modestly Stronger, But Sideways Theme...

Yesterday's recap went into some detail about the market phenomenon that can result in intense periods of sideways momentum (and trader apathy) during...
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Mortgage Rates Sideways to Slightly Lower

Mortgage rates have been so little-changed in recent days that yesterday's coverage wouldn't need to be changed in order to apply perfectly today. Indeed...
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FHFA Home Prices Continue Strong Gains

April data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) indicates that, once again, there was no moderation in the pace of home price increases . FHFA...
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Prepayment Rate and Refinanceable Population Have Both...

Prepayments, apparently spurred by the recent retreat in interest rates, soared in May. Black Knight Financial Services, in its "first look" at the month...
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Purchase Loans, Closing Rates Improved in May

Originations are increasingly tilted toward home purchase mortgages per the latest Origination Insight Report from Ellie Mae. The May data show the share...
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MBS Day Ahead: Clearly a Waiting Game, but For How...

With the trading activity seen in the wake of last Wednesday's high-volume/high-movement day, it's clear that bond markets have been in a holding...
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MBS RECAP: Summertime Sideways

With the taper tantrum in 2013 and Brexit in 2016, two of our most recent examples of summertime bond trading have been pulled very far from historical...
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Mortgage Rates are Barely Budging (And That's Great...

Mortgage rates have been locked in an exceptionally narrow range for most of the month of June, but especially over the past 5 days. Given that mortgage...
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Existing Sales Rise, Prices Peak, Time-to-Sell at New...

Existing home sales weren't expected to strengthen in May, in fact analysts were looking for a slight decline. Sales however did manage to recover from...
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Refis Take Another Step Toward 50% of All Mortgage...

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MBS RECAP: Bonds Erase Yesterday's Weakness Without...

Today had no significant news or events on the calendar, thus leaving traders to watch other traders for cues. To some extent, several Fed speakers got...
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Rates Fall Slightly to Remain Near 8-Month Lows

Mortgage rates were steady to slightly lower today, with underlying bond markets essentially erasing the damage seen yesterday. This was neither here nor...
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Rise in Purchase Mortgages Boosts Credit Risk

New home purchase mortgages became a little riskier in the first quarter of 2017 per CoreLogic. The company said its Housing Credit Index (HCI), which...
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MBA Objects to FHFA Non-Bank Servicer Proposal

Mortgage Bankers Association President and CEO David H. Stevens, has released a statement objecting to one of the three recommendations made this week...
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Hedging Economic Bets

Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Team hedged a few bets in its June economic summary. It laid out some wild cards while predicting that the...

Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 3.98%
|
15 Yr FRM 3.26%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.25%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 107-18 (0-03)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 109-16 (0-00)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 111-07 (0-13)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps 4.36%
|
Refinance Index 10.47%
|
Purchase Index -0.82%

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