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MBS Day Ahead: Apex of Bond Supply and Fed Minutes

MBS RECAP: Supply and Headlines Weigh on Bonds

MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Stalled Despite Stocks. What Are They Waiting...

MBS RECAP: Unofficial 3rd Day of The Weekend

MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Hoping For More Political Drama

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Refi Apps Rebound, Helping Offset Purchase Pull-Back

Mortgage Rates Remain Under Pressure

HUD Budget Drops by $16 Billion, FHA, GNMA Appear Unscathed

There are Tons of Newly Built Homes – Just the Wrong Kind

New Home Sales Contract Sharply in April

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New Home Sales Contract Sharply; HUD Budget Implications; Lots of Newly-Built Homes, but the Wrong Kind

Published: 5/23/2017

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MBS Day Ahead: Apex of Bond Supply and Fed Minutes

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by Matthew Graham on May 24 2017, 9:16 AM

Today's main event from a "street cred" standpoint will be the 2pm release of the Minutes from the last Fed meeting . This is a detailed account of the discussion that produced the Fed Announcement at the beginning of May (which contained...
MBS RECAP: Supply and Headlines Weigh on Bonds

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by Matthew Graham on May 23 2017, 4:21 PM

Much like the week before last, we're seeing an abundance of new "supply" hitting the bond market. This comes both in the form of the scheduled Treasury auctions as well as the more fluid world of corporate bond issuance. Traders generally...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Stalled Despite Stocks. What Are They Waiting For?

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by Matthew Graham on May 23 2017, 9:45 AM

Although yields have risen modestly over the past 3 trading session, they've done so from the best levels in more than 7 months. If we take a few steps back from the narrow time frame that we watch from day-to-day and think about the broader recent...
MBS RECAP: Unofficial 3rd Day of The Weekend

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by Matthew Graham on May 22 2017, 5:08 PM

Today was super slow for bond markets with 10yr yields holding under the same ceiling that was in place on Friday (2.25+). At the same time, the lower yields of the day continually crept higher, making for an even narrower "consolidation range"...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Hoping For More Political Drama

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by Matthew Graham on May 22 2017, 9:32 AM

Last week was characterized by one big day of volume and volatility surrounding the apparently scandalous and sensational political headlines. By now, you've either come across the news in question (regarding Trump, Comey, Flynn, Chaffetz, etc.) or...
MBS Day Ahead: Levels to Watch; Hoping For Calm

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by Matthew Graham on May 19 2017, 9:11 AM

If bonds hadn't undergone their highest volume move of the year on Wednesday and Thursday, we would have expected this week to be relatively dead in terms of market movement potential. There was nothing interesting on the event calendar, save for...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Holding Week's Big Gains For Now

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by Matthew Graham on May 18 2017, 7:03 PM

It could have been a lot worse! That's a great theme for today's bond market action. Yesterday was the kind of rally where traders buy bonds first and ask questions later. Those questions are typically asked in the form of bond selling on the...
MBS Day Ahead: Rally Intact But At Risk For a Bounce

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by Matthew Graham on May 18 2017, 9:13 AM

I can't emphasize this enough: when bond markets have a day like they had yesterday, it's often followed shortly thereafter by a correction. In the case of a true rally with staying power, that will be a temporary correction, lasting one day....
MBS RECAP: Game-Changing Rally or Massive Head-Fake

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by Matthew Graham on May 17 2017, 5:32 PM

Today will either go down as a game-changing rally in the course of bond traders' decision making process for 2017, or as an epic head-fake that provided LO's a great opportunity to lock a few top tier deals at sub 4% 30yr fixed rates. Either...
MBS Day Ahead: New Day Dawns for Bonds as Trump Scandal Takes Spotlight

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by Matthew Graham on May 17 2017, 9:01 AM

I hate politics and talking about political issues with anyone, ever, unless they have a clear and specific impact on bond markets. That was the case with the US presidential election in November. It was the case as policymaking hit roadblocks in March...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Still Confirming The Move; Tomorrow Could Be Crazy

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by Matthew Graham on May 16 2017, 8:37 PM

The week began in slow fashion yesterday both in terms of volume and volatility. That largely remained the case in the bigger picture today, despite some intraday volatility. It's no longer the case after the close of trading due to the prevalence...
MBS Day Ahead: Sideways Momentum The Risk as Stocks Threaten Breakout

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by Matthew Graham on May 16 2017, 9:06 AM

I'll be one of the first to tell you that traditional concept of stock prices moving in the same direction in bond yields breaks down when viewing longer time frames. But in the shorter term, we frequently see them paying attention to each other....
MBS RECAP: Slow Start to Week; Still Waiting For Firmer Confirmation

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by Matthew Graham on May 15 2017, 6:55 PM

Last week ended with the hope that rates were breaking below the uptrend that had been in place since mid-April. Certainly, if we had to judge that breakout from one day's trading, Friday was enough to get us well clear of the trend. As always, however...
MBS Day Ahead: Hope Remains Alive, But Not Without a Fight

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by Matthew Graham on May 15 2017, 9:22 AM

Last Friday represented a potential shift in the recent trend toward higher rates that began in mid-April. 10yr yields (which we track as the best proxy for momentum in longer-term rates, like mortgages) fell below a key trendline (seen in the chart below...
MBS RECAP: Surprisingly Big Impact From Econ Data

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by Matthew Graham on May 12 2017, 6:24 PM

Bonds were losing ground clearly and convincingly this week, until this morning's economic data came along. To be fair , we might say that bonds began holding their ground earlier in the week as the Treasury auction cycle began, with 10yr yields initially...

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It could have been a lot worse! That's a great theme for today's bond market action. Yesterday was the kind of rally where traders buy bonds first...
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Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 4.03%
|
15 Yr FRM 3.29%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.31%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 107-18 (-0-01)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 109-24 (0-00)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 111-02 (-0-02)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps 0%
|
Refinance Index 0%
|
Purchase Index 0%

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