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MBS RECAP: Still a Decent Week Despite Friday Slide

MBS Day Ahead: This Is The Shift. Now It's About Time and...

MBS RECAP: Snowball Rally For Bonds! Why? And What Next?

MBS Day Ahead: Twilight Zone: Strong Econ Data = Big Bond Rally...

MBS RECAP: Super Sideways Ahead of Retail Sales

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MBS RECAP: Still a Decent Week Despite Friday Slide

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by Matthew Graham on April 16 2021, 5:21 PM

Still a Decent Week Despite Friday Slide Thursday morning was exceptionally strong for bonds--perhaps too strong, with too much influence from artificial factors like short-covering and tech-triggered algos. Today's modest weakness reinforces a more...
MBS Day Ahead: This Is The Shift. Now It's About Time and Scope

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by Matthew Graham on April 16 2021, 10:06 AM

For virtually all of 2021 (and much of Q4 2020), we've been tracking an uptrend in Treasury yields. As the overall move grew to a size rarely seen in the past few decades, we were increasingly eager to see a token correction for technical reasons...
MBS RECAP: Snowball Rally For Bonds! Why? And What Next?

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by Matthew Graham on April 15 2021, 3:56 PM

Snowball Rally For Bonds! Why? And What Next? Heading into today, we expected the bond market to ignore potentially stronger Retail Sales data. Not only did bonds overlook the big beat (9.8 vs 5.9 f'cast), but they actually rallied in response. This...
MBS Day Ahead: Twilight Zone: Strong Econ Data = Big Bond Rally

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by Matthew Graham on April 15 2021, 10:19 AM

Heading into today, we expected the bond market to ignore potentially stronger Retail Sales data. Not only did bonds overlook the big beat (9.8 vs 5.9 f'cast), but they actually rallied in response. This was made all the more remarkable by the presence...
MBS RECAP: Super Sideways Ahead of Retail Sales

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by Matthew Graham on April 14 2021, 4:44 PM

Super Sideways Ahead of Retail Sales Retail Sales used to be a big ticket report, but like so many others, has been punching well below its weight post-covid. That will change at some point. We could see vague hints of that change as early as tomorrow...
MBS RECAP: Super Sideways Ahead of Retail Sales

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by Matthew Graham on April 14 2021, 4:44 PM

Super Sideways Ahead of Retail Sales Retail Sales used to be a big ticket report, but like so many others, has been punching well below its weight post-covid. That will change at some point. We could see vague hints of that change as early as tomorrow...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Still Staring Down Range Boundaries

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by Matthew Graham on April 14 2021, 10:09 AM

Yesterday was good for bonds with 10yr yields covering more ground toward lower yields during domestic trading hours than any other day since February. Nonetheless, when faced with an opportunity to break below the 1.62% resistance level, they ran the...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Still Staring Down Range Boundaries

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by Matthew Graham on April 14 2021, 10:09 AM

Yesterday was good for bonds with 10yr yields covering more ground toward lower yields during domestic trading hours than any other day since February. Nonetheless, when faced with an opportunity to break below the 1.62% resistance level, they ran the...
MBS RECAP: Strong Showing With Help From Vaccine Drama and a Solid Bond Auction

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by Matthew Graham on April 13 2021, 4:03 PM

Strong Showing With Help From Vaccine Drama and a Solid Bond Auction The day began with bonds falling back to yesterday's range after rising in the overnight session. Concerns over the J&J vaccine were in focus. Inflation data (CPI) came out stronger...
MBS RECAP: Strong Showing With Help From Vaccine Drama and a Solid Bond Auction

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by Matthew Graham on April 13 2021, 4:03 PM

Strong Showing With Help From Vaccine Drama and a Solid Bond Auction The day began with bonds falling back to yesterday's range after rising in the overnight session. Concerns over the J&J vaccine were in focus. Inflation data (CPI) came out stronger...
MBS Day Ahead: As Expected, Bonds Take Higher Inflation in Stride

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by Matthew Graham on April 13 2021, 9:01 AM

It's a sign of the times that the bond market responded with a modest rally following a stronger reading on CPI and a looming record-size 30yr bond auction this afternoon (not to mention stocks trading at all-time highs). Granted, yields are now 100bps...
MBS Day Ahead: As Expected, Bonds Take Higher Inflation in Stride

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by Matthew Graham on April 13 2021, 9:01 AM

It's a sign of the times that the bond market responded with a modest rally following a stronger reading on CPI and a looming record-size 30yr bond auction this afternoon (not to mention stocks trading at all-time highs). Granted, yields are now 100bps...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Look Past Weaker Treasury Auction

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by Matthew Graham on April 12 2021, 4:04 PM

Bonds Look Past Weaker Treasury Auction Treasury auction have been more important than normal so far in 2021 as they serve as good opportunities for traders to vote on the pace of rising rates. Most recently, they've been a litmus test for break from...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Look Past Weaker Treasury Auction

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by Matthew Graham on April 12 2021, 4:04 PM

Bonds Look Past Weaker Treasury Auction Treasury auction have been more important than normal so far in 2021 as they serve as good opportunities for traders to vote on the pace of rising rates. Most recently, they've been a litmus test for break from...
MBS Week Ahead: Treasury Auction Supply in Focus as Ceiling Battle Continues

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by Matthew Graham on April 12 2021, 9:43 AM

Three weeks ago, the bond market made its first attempt to rally toward lower yields after ending the previous week bouncing at a ceiling of 1.75% in the 10yr. Traders were generally upbeat as they moved through the 2 and 5 year Treasury auctions, but...

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MBS RECAP: Thursday Curse Broken. NFP Friday

Thursday Curse Broken. NFP Friday Thursdays have been almost universally bad in 2021--a point that was driven home when last week's example looked...
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Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 3.18%
|
15 Yr FRM 2.63%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.32%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 108-28 (-0-02)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 110-20 (-0-01)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 111-11 (-0-02)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps -2.51%
|
Refinance Index -5.12%
|
Purchase Index -100.00%

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