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MBS RECAP: Bond Markets Generally Flat for Past 3 Days; NFP Tomorrow

MBS MID-DAY: Bonds Hold Ground in Volatile Trading as Europe...

MBS Day Ahead: ECB Detailing QE Today; NFP Tomorrow; Plenty for...

MBS RECAP: Bonds Opt to Hold Ground After Morning Data Volatility...

MBS MID-DAY: NFP Anxiety Keeping Bond Markets Defensive

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Mortgage Rates Flat for 2nd Day; Jobs Report Looms Large

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Basel III Update; Training and Events; M&A Continues; Lending...

Mortgage Rates Pause Ahead of Big Events

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Published: 3/5/2015

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MBS RECAP: Bond Markets Generally Flat for Past 3 Days; NFP Tomorrow

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by Matthew Graham on March 05 2015, 4:46 PM

Today's ECB press conference and QE details were indeed a hotly anticipated item, and they caused quite a stir for European bond markets (right where you'd expect). But unlike we might expect from recent correlation, Treasuries did very little...
MBS MID-DAY: Bonds Hold Ground in Volatile Trading as Europe Rallies on QE Details

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by Matthew Graham on March 05 2015, 1:20 PM

Relative to its potential, today's release of ECB QE details turned out to inspire only modest volatility. Compared to an average day, however, the swings have been sharper and more frequent. The overnight session was uneventful and slightly weaker...
MBS Day Ahead: ECB Detailing QE Today; NFP Tomorrow; Plenty for Bonds to Consider

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by Matthew Graham on March 05 2015, 7:32 AM

When the ECB (European Central Bank) officially announced quantitative easing in January, they were pretty light on the details. At least that's true relative to what markets have come to expect based the ECB's previous programs. To say they're...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Opt to Hold Ground After Morning Data Volatility

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by Matthew Graham on March 04 2015, 4:45 PM

Yesterday afternoon's latest levels in 10yr yields were right around 2.13. This morning's pre-data highs (just before 7am) were also right around 2.13. And after the data imparted it's volatile spin on trading levels, yields topped out yet...
MBS MID-DAY: NFP Anxiety Keeping Bond Markets Defensive

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by Matthew Graham on March 04 2015, 12:39 PM

This morning's trading has been refreshingly straightforward. In fact, it's about as straightforward as it gets. Bond markets are clearly quite focused on Friday's NFP results, and reacted to today's economic data accordingly. The slightly...
MBS Day Ahead: Not Without Hope, But Defensiveness Makes Sense

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by Matthew Graham on March 04 2015, 7:01 AM

You might have detected a more bearish tone in my opening thoughts for March, titled: Refocusing on Data as March Begins . If you didn't read that, or don't care to, the gist is that much has recently changed in terms of the "stuff" that had helped bond...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Remain on the Ropes Ahead of Big-Ticket Events

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by Matthew Graham on March 03 2015, 4:26 PM

Bonds sold off again today amid a total absence of economic data and meaningful headlines. Tradeflows were left in control and the biggest consideration continues to be the corporate bond market. After another massive deal came through today, 2015 has...
MBS MID-DAY: Quiet Morning So Far; Corporate Bonds Still in Control

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by Matthew Graham on March 03 2015, 12:38 PM

Anyone who's not talking about this week's rate movements in the context of the big Actavis corporate bond offering is missing the point . It was yesterday's biggest trading motivation and it continues to guide this morning's range trade...
MBS Day Ahead: Absence of Data Leaves Focus on Technicals and Tradeflows

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by Matthew Graham on March 03 2015, 7:33 AM

Yesterday morning, bond traders held off on more meaningful selling until they could rule out a big miss in the ISM data. That would normally mean today could provide a clearer look at organic momentum as there are no major reports on tap . But in the...
MBS RECAP: What is Actavis and How Did it Ruin Our Day?

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by Matthew Graham on March 02 2015, 5:34 PM

Have you heard much about Actavis before today? Me neither, but that sure changed quickly! Actavis is a big pharmaceutical company that announced it would buy Allergan back in Nov for around $66 bln. As is sometimes the case with these big buyouts, the...
MBS MID-DAY: In Hindsight, Morning's Big Sell-Off is Simple

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by Matthew Graham on March 02 2015, 12:44 PM

In hindsight, this has turned out to be a simple morning for bond markets. That wasn't the case earlier when we could only guess at the likely culprits behind a pervasive--even counterintuitive--push toward weaker levels. Then again, maybe that should...
MBS Week Ahead: Refocusing on Data as March Begins

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by Matthew Graham on March 02 2015, 7:34 AM

It's an exciting and dangerous time for US rates markets, full of risk and opportunity. For those of us who were closely watching trends in rates at the end of 2013, the last 14 months have been unexpectedly excellent. Much of the excellence had to...
MBS RECAP: Slow, Steady Gains for Bond Markets

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by Matthew Graham on February 27 2015, 4:59 PM

Very little has changed between now and the mid-day update (read that HERE if you like). To recap, bonds started the day roughly in line with yesterday's latest levels and made gradual improvements throughout the day. That was more true for MBS than...
MBS MID-DAY: Uneventful Month-End Session; Little Impact From Data

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by Matthew Graham on February 27 2015, 1:06 PM

The last trading day of the month has managed to be a total let-down to anyone looking for excitement. In terms of doing no further harm , it's been just fine though--at least through mid-day. That wasn't necessarily looking like the case overnight...
MBS Day Ahead: Today Probably Won't Decide the Permanent Fate of Rates in the US

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by Matthew Graham on February 27 2015, 7:34 AM

We're all a bit shaken up--us market watching types. Almost all of 2014 through January of 2015 was great, and now February has stuck out like a sore thumb. This week's refreshing rally on Tuesday was the first real glimmer of hope. As of Thursday...

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Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 3.85%
|
15 Yr FRM 3.15%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.82%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 108-19 (0-00)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 110-29 (-0-01)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 112-10 (-0-01)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps 0.10%
|
Refinance Index 0.46%
|
Purchase Index -0.24%

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