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MBS RECAP: Another One of Those Unofficial 3-Day Weekend Days

MBS Week Ahead: Bonds Try to Confirm Last Week's Victory

MBS RECAP: Trade Fears Help Bond Rally Extend

MBS Day Ahead: Here We Go Bonds, Now, Here We Go!

MBS RECAP: ECB Surprises Markets, But Bonds Liked It

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Builder Confidence: Tariffs on Lumber Hurting Affordability

Compliance and Construction Products; Legal Changes for Lenders...

Americans Sitting on Trillions in Tappable Equity

Mortgage Rates Inch to Week's Best Levels

Compliance, Fraud Prevention Products; Lenders' Digital Notes...

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Builder Confidence: Tariffs on Lumber Hurting Affordability; Tons of Tappable Equity

Published: 6/18/2018

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MBS RECAP: Another One of Those Unofficial 3-Day Weekend Days

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by Matthew Graham on June 18 2018, 4:30 PM

These sorts of days (where nothing happens) happen. If you had to bet on a day of the week and a time of year to see them, Summertime Mondays would probably be the safest bet. Overnight volume was almost nonexistent, with much of Asia closed. Domestic...
MBS Week Ahead: Bonds Try to Confirm Last Week's Victory

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by Matthew Graham on June 18 2018, 9:16 AM

Post-Italian drama, bond yields rose for 2 straight weeks heading into last week's Fed and ECB announcements. They both proved friendly and the positive momentum continued on Friday. The timing of the Italian drama was important because it began helping...
MBS RECAP: Trade Fears Help Bond Rally Extend

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by Matthew Graham on June 15 2018, 5:35 PM

Fresh fears of trade wars pushed stocks and bond yields lower in the overnight session as the White House promised another wave of tariff announcements in the morning. China retaliated by promising its own tariffs and markets slumped accordingly. By "accordingly...
MBS Day Ahead: Here We Go Bonds, Now, Here We Go!

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by Matthew Graham on June 15 2018, 9:37 AM

Bond markets have their rally caps on after making it through both central bank announcements this week without suffering any crazy damage. In fact, each day brought modest improvements and now today stands the chance of bringing enough of a rally to...
MBS RECAP: ECB Surprises Markets, But Bonds Liked It

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by Matthew Graham on June 14 2018, 4:15 PM

We knew the ECB (European Central Bank) was going to have to address its bond buying program soon, because it expires after September. Several speakers had alluded to the likelihood that it would be addressed in today's announcement. Markets took...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Cheer ECB's Mic Drop

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by Matthew Graham on June 14 2018, 9:00 AM

Today's domestic session begins with a positive reaction to the European Central Bank (ECB) announcement. The ECB broke from tradition by dropping their bigger bombs at the 7:45am announcement as opposed to Draghi's 8:30am press conference. They...
MBS RECAP: Mostly a Knee-Jerk Reaction to Fed Dots and Powell

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by Matthew Graham on June 13 2018, 5:52 PM

In one sentence, today's Fed rate forecasts pushed bonds into weaker territory at 2pm and Jerome Powell's press conference helped to recover most of the losses. The forecasts showed a slightly higher probability of 4 rate hikes in 2018. The average...
Differences Between Previous and Current FOMC Statements

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by Matthew Graham on June 13 2018, 2:05 PM

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in MarchMay indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a moderatesolid rate. Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent...
MBS Day Ahead: All About The Dots, Bout The Dots, No Rate Hike

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by Matthew Graham on June 13 2018, 9:09 AM

"The dots" refer to the Fed's periodically updated economic projections. "Periodically, " in this case, means 4 times a year out of the 8 annual Fed meetings. "Economic projections" is a misleading term, not because the...
MBS RECAP: No Drama From CPI; Bring On The Fed

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by Matthew Graham on June 12 2018, 5:11 PM

Today turned out to be a dud, thanks to a completely uneventful CPI reading as well as a right-down-the-middle 30yr bond auction. Neither of these events were necessarily destined to shake things up, but CPI certain COULD have (if it fell far from forecast...
MBS Day Ahead: Ceilings to Watch if Weakness Continues

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by Matthew Graham on June 12 2018, 9:46 AM

Bonds are starting the day in a slightly weaker stance yet again. While we managed to come back from a weaker start yesterday, it's worth checking in with the important defensive ceilings. If this week continues to be unfriendly, these ceilings would...
MBS RECAP: Little-Changed After Uneventful Summertime Monday

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by Matthew Graham on June 11 2018, 4:17 PM

History suggests that Fed/ECB meetings in June are more than up to the task of causing significant volatility in bond markets. It also suggests that summertime Mondays often turn into unofficial 3-day weekends. Both options are still on the table for...
MBS Week Ahead: High Stakes and Wide Range of Outcomes

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by Matthew Graham on June 11 2018, 9:22 AM

Bond markets have weathered the storm of Italian political drama, which created the bulk of volatility over the past 3 weeks. They've considered the implications of various tariff-related developments at home, as well as the implications for potential...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Mostly Hold "Flash Rally" Gains

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by Matthew Graham on June 08 2018, 4:56 PM

What a quiet and boring trading session it was! Well, to be fair, there's still half an hour left as I type this, but most bond market participants mark the end of the day at 3pm E.T. By that time, we were almost perfectly unchanged and hadn't...
MBS Day Ahead: Refreshing Resilience Introduces New Possibilities

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by Matthew Graham on June 08 2018, 9:06 AM

The day is young, but the fact that we're starting out with much of yesterday's "flash" rally intact means that new doors are opening for bonds. Next week's central bank announcements are--well... central to any assessment of near...

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MBS RECAP: Trade Fears Help Bond Rally Extend

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MBS RECAP: ECB Surprises Markets, But Bonds Liked It

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MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Cheer ECB's Mic Drop

Today's domestic session begins with a positive reaction to the European Central Bank (ECB) announcement. The ECB broke from tradition by dropping...
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In one sentence, today's Fed rate forecasts pushed bonds into weaker territory at 2pm and Jerome Powell's press conference helped to recover most...
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MBS Day Ahead: All About The Dots, Bout The Dots, No...

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MBS RECAP: No Drama From CPI; Bring On The Fed

Today turned out to be a dud, thanks to a completely uneventful CPI reading as well as a right-down-the-middle 30yr bond auction. Neither of these events...
Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Rates Brace For Volatility From Central Banks

Mortgage rates didn't move much today. That keeps them in line with some of the highest levels in nearly 7 years, though the same could be said for a majority...
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Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 4.66%
|
15 Yr FRM 4.12%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.69%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 103-30 (0-01)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 105-22 (0-01)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 107-03 (0-01)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps -2.60%
|
Refinance Index -3.69%
|
Purchase Index -1.98%

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