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MBS RECAP: MBS Outperform; Bonds Stay Defiantly Sideways Overall

MBS Day Ahead: Where Would We Be Without Stocks?

MBS RECAP: Stocks Try to Help, But Bonds Stay Relentlessly Flat

MBS Day Ahead: Limited Data, Sideways Range, Fed Speakers, Treasury...

MBS RECAP: Floating, Locking, and Reasons For Sideways Rates...

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Serious Delinquencies Grow, but Fewer Overall Missed Payments...

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New Home Sales Crush Forecasts, Soaring to 14-Year High; Serious Delinquencies Grow

Published: 9/24/2020

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MBS RECAP: MBS Outperform; Bonds Stay Defiantly Sideways Overall

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by Matthew Graham on September 24 2020, 3:14 PM

MBS Outperform; Bonds Stay Defiantly Sideways Overall The stock market tried a few different moves on the bond market today and while correlation is still visible at times, Treasuries generally refused to be dragged very far from home. MBS did just a...
MBS Day Ahead: Where Would We Be Without Stocks?

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by Matthew Graham on September 24 2020, 9:52 AM

It's no secret that the bond market has been sideways for a month and a half by even the strictest definitions, and broadly sideways since first settling down from the initial covid-related volatility in March. In terms of specific levels, that's...
MBS RECAP: Stocks Try to Help, But Bonds Stay Relentlessly Flat

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by Matthew Graham on September 23 2020, 4:05 PM

Stocks Try to Help, But Bonds Stay Relentlessly Flat Econ data, Treasury auctions and Fed speakers all failed to move the needle. Bonds only showed signs of life in response to new corporate debt issuance and a big sell-off in stocks. The net effect left...
MBS Day Ahead: Limited Data, Sideways Range, Fed Speakers, Treasury Auction

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by Matthew Graham on September 23 2020, 9:25 AM

You know times are tough in the world of bond market analysis when I resort to using an uninspired bullet point list of events for a headline. The only way it could get any worse would be something like " One Weird Trick To Dealing With Sideways...
MBS RECAP: Floating, Locking, and Reasons For Sideways Rates (Including Politics)

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by Matthew Graham on September 22 2020, 4:37 PM

Stocks vs Bonds; Bonds vs Supply There's a fairly strong case to be made for stock market weakness helping bond yields remain lower than they otherwise might be in September. As such, we'll be watching the bond market's reaction very carefully...
MBS Day Ahead: A Brief History of Bonds' Break-Up With Econ Data

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by Matthew Graham on September 22 2020, 10:04 AM

Remember simpler times when following interest rate movements meant waiting for economic data to come out and counting on logical, repeatable, predictable impacts? For instance, today's Existing Home Sales report has always fallen somewhere in the...
MBS RECAP: Stocks vs Bonds; Bonds vs Supply

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by Matthew Graham on September 21 2020, 3:35 PM

Stocks vs Bonds; Bonds vs Supply There's a fairly strong case to be made for stock market weakness helping bond yields remain lower than they otherwise might be in September. As such, we'll be watching the bond market's reaction very carefully...
MBS Week Ahead: Who Knows Where We'd Be Without Stock Market Weakness

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by Matthew Graham on September 21 2020, 10:06 AM

One of my favorite pastimes is debunking the notion that stock prices and bonds yields 'always' correlate. Years of indoctrination from the conventional wisdom of money managers have done us no favors as market watchers. Even if you don't...
MBS RECAP: Range Trading Settling in For Long(er) Haul

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by Matthew Graham on September 18 2020, 5:30 PM

Range Trading Settling in For Long(er) Haul With no significant bond market volatility in response to this week's Fed announcement. The question of "where do we go now" remains. The answer remains as well. Until further notice, it's...
MBS Day Ahead: Running Out of Ways to Say "Sideways"

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by Matthew Graham on September 18 2020, 9:47 AM

Tossed coconut salad... Fresh coconut milk... New England boiled coconut... There were only so many menu choices for Yosemite Sam working with one ingredient. We're in a somewhat similar position over the past month with nothing to observe apart from...
MBS RECAP: Still Waiting on Bonds to Attempt a Range Breakout

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by Matthew Graham on September 17 2020, 4:06 PM

Still Waiting on Bonds to Attempt a Range Breakout Yesterday's Fed announcement managed to deliver the bare minimum of the market's expectations and underdeliver on fairly reasonable hopes. That resulted in a logical protest from both stocks and...
MBS Day Ahead: Markets Debating Next Move After Fed; Update on Mortgage Spreads

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by Matthew Graham on September 17 2020, 9:44 AM

Yesterday's Fed announcement managed to deliver the bare minimum of the market's expectations and underdeliver on fairly reasonable hopes. That resulted in a logical protest from both stocks and bonds. Each had walked their own cautious path leading...
MBS RECAP: What Did The Fed Actually Change?

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by Matthew Graham on September 16 2020, 4:43 PM

What Did The Fed Actually Change? Here are the most notable changes: The vague notion of symmetric 2 percent inflation has been replaced with a specific goal of "moderately above 2 percent so that it averages 2 percent over time." They now refer...
Differences Between Previous and Current FOMC Statements

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by Matthew Graham on September 16 2020, 2:06 PM

The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals. The coronavirus outbreak is causing tremendous human and economic...
MBS Day Ahead: The Fed Could Help OR Hurt

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by Matthew Graham on September 16 2020, 10:03 AM

Coronavirus is responsible for many "firsts." Apart from the obvious impact on daily life there are firsts for the economy and monetary policy as well. Since March, all of the significant policy changes from the Fed have been unscheduled and...

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Stocks Try to Help, But Bonds Stay Relentlessly Flat Econ data, Treasury auctions and Fed speakers all failed to move the needle. Bonds only showed signs...
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MBS RECAP: Floating, Locking, and Reasons For Sideways...

Stocks vs Bonds; Bonds vs Supply There's a fairly strong case to be made for stock market weakness helping bond yields remain lower than they otherwise...
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Home Sales Surge to Best Levels in 14 Years

Existing home sales continued on a roll for the third consecutive month, hitting the highest level in August since December 2006. The National Association...
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Homeowner Equity Surged in Q2

There was another big surge in the amount of equity on the balance sheets of American homeowners in the second quarter of this year. CoreLogic reports...
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Remember simpler times when following interest rate movements meant waiting for economic data to come out and counting on logical, repeatable, predictable...
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MBS RECAP: Stocks vs Bonds; Bonds vs Supply

Stocks vs Bonds; Bonds vs Supply There's a fairly strong case to be made for stock market weakness helping bond yields remain lower than they otherwise...
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Fannie's Forecast Sees a Brightening Recovery

Fannie Mae has upgraded its forecast for the third quarter gross domestic product (GDP). It now expects growth at an annualized pace of 30.4 percent ,...
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If you watch the news long enough, you see all kinds of interesting things. Cracker Barrel is adding alcohol to its menu? Yup! And you must watch this...
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One of my favorite pastimes is debunking the notion that stock prices and bonds yields 'always' correlate. Years of indoctrination from the conventional...
MBS Commentary

MBS RECAP: Range Trading Settling in For Long(er) Haul

Range Trading Settling in For Long(er) Haul With no significant bond market volatility in response to this week's Fed announcement. The question of...
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Mortgage rates are most influenced by the bond market and the bond market is most influenced by the Federal Reserve (aka "The Fed"). So when the Fed says...
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Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 3.02%
|
15 Yr FRM 2.64%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.37%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 108-05 (-0-00)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 109-17 (-0-01)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 110-21 (-0-15)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps 6.77%
|
Refinance Index 8.83%
|
Purchase Index 3.42%

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