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MBS RECAP: Traders Running For Sidelines Ahead of Next Week's...

MBS Day Ahead: Month-End Trading Goes Both Ways; Chart Patterns...

MBS RECAP: Technicals And Fundamentals Join Forces to Deliver...

MBS Day Ahead: Fed Starts Buying 1.5 MBS Coupons Today. Does...

MBS RECAP: Bonds Struggle to Hold Gains; Fed Announces 1.5 MBS...

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Fannie/Freddie Report Increased Profits

Forbearance Plans Increase, Many are Reinstatements

Residential Fixed Investment Soared Past GDP Growth in Q3

VOE, Broker, Non-QM, Social Media Tools; 1.5 Percent Security...

Mortgage Rates Can Only Hold Out For So Long

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Next Week Could be Crazy (Obviously); Fannie/Freddie Report Higher Profits; Forbearances Increasing or Just Reinstating?

Published: 10/30/2020

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MBS RECAP: Traders Running For Sidelines Ahead of Next Week's Election

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by Matthew Graham on October 30 2020, 4:09 PM

Traders Running For Sidelines Ahead of Next Week's Election Big losses in both stocks and bonds today as traders take their seats for next week's big show. Month-end trading volumes were huge. It was the single biggest trading day since June....
MBS Day Ahead: Month-End Trading Goes Both Ways; Chart Patterns Suggest Caution

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by Matthew Graham on October 30 2020, 10:52 AM

The topic of month-end trading comes up frequently over the years. Reason being: we often see market momentum on the last few days of any given month that can't be easily explained by any other motivation. And while we wouldn't be so naive to...
MBS RECAP: Technicals And Fundamentals Join Forces to Deliver Warning For Rates

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by Matthew Graham on October 29 2020, 4:50 PM

Technicals And Fundamentals Join Forces to Deliver Warning For Rates Whether we're talking about the week as a whole or simply today's trading session, bonds tried to convince us they were in good shape only to give up the gains and head back...
MBS Day Ahead: Fed Starts Buying 1.5 MBS Coupons Today. Does It Matter?

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by Matthew Graham on October 29 2020, 11:17 AM

Let's do the simply-worded conclusion right up front. For fans of low rates, the Fed's inclusion of 1.5 MBS (30yr) is a good thing, but not some new and wonderful guarantee of ongoing improvement. It's more of a byproduct and less of a root...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Struggle to Hold Gains; Fed Announces 1.5 MBS Purchases

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by Matthew Graham on October 28 2020, 5:09 PM

Bonds Struggle to Hold Gains Despite Stock Rout As of the 3pm CME close, 10yr yields were higher on the day. Even though the losses were minimal, they're not what we'd expect given a 3% loss in stocks and a market that has frequently been trading...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Confirming a Friendly Bounce, But With Lots of Help

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by Matthew Graham on October 28 2020, 10:03 AM

October has been unpleasant for the bond market--Treasuries specifically. That's not to say it's been a walk in the park for MBS. They too have lost ground consistently throughout the month, but those losses have been far better contained relative...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Looking Better This Week, But Risks Remain

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by Matthew Graham on October 27 2020, 4:33 PM

Bonds Looking Better This Week, But Risks Remain Today's release of FHFA's home price index showed a sharp acceleration in price growth, with the annual total at 8.0% by the end of August. If prices completely stopped moving up in Sept, that puts...
MBS Day Ahead: New Conforming Loan Limits Coming Into Focus; Bonds Turning a Corner?

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by Matthew Graham on October 27 2020, 11:33 AM

We'll start off with more of an industry-specific curiosity (as opposed to diving right into markets/rates). Then again, the conforming loan limit is a key consideration for rates, and it will be updated in less than a month! Today's FHFA home...
MBS RECAP: Rising Rate Trend Changing Course or Just Leveling Off?

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by Matthew Graham on October 26 2020, 3:36 PM

Rising Rate Trend Changing Course or Just Leveling Off? After a modest day of gains on Friday, bonds covered some more serious ground today. 10yr yields were more than 4bps lower at the 3pm CME close, and roughly 8bps lower versus Friday's highs....
MBS Week Ahead: Case For Volatility Continues to Build

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by Matthew Graham on October 26 2020, 10:36 AM

We knew that bonds would be forced to accept more volatility in October, if for no other reason than September's progressive and ultimately complete absence of volatility. The new month has not disappointed in that regard, although the trading levels...
MBS RECAP: Have MBS Finally Reached The Limits of Outperformance vs Treasuries?

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by Matthew Graham on October 23 2020, 3:49 PM

Have MBS Finally Reached The Limits of Outperformance vs Treasuries? Bonds are in the throws of an extended negative momentum move that's been in place throughout October. At times, stimulus-related headlines have accounted for volatility during this...
MBS Day Ahead: When Will Luck Run Out For MBS vs Broader Bond Market?

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by Matthew Graham on October 23 2020, 10:11 AM

In the bond market, as a whole, we've never seen yields any lower for any longer than they've been in 2020. The runners up aren't even close. Even though bonds have become increasingly commoditzed (think "buy to sell" as opposed...
MBS RECAP: Staggering MBS Outperformance Easing Negative Momentum Pain

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by Matthew Graham on October 22 2020, 3:53 PM

Staggering MBS Outperformance Easing Negative Momentum Pain Bonds are in the throws of an extended negative momentum move that's been in place throughout October. At times, stimulus-related headlines have accounted for volatility during this move...
MBS Day Ahead: What's The Next Ceiling For Bond Yields?

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by Matthew Graham on October 22 2020, 10:16 AM

There are several ways to look at "the range" when it comes to post-covid trading levels in the bond market. There are several ways to look at "the bond market" for that matter, but as usual, we'll focus on 10yr yields even though...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Find Footing Early, But Aren't Able to Go Green

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by Matthew Graham on October 21 2020, 4:25 PM

Bonds Find Footing Early, But Aren't Able to Go Green It's safe to say the bond market found its footing today, but that is only a reference to TODAY (not necessarily "finding footing" in the bigger picture). In terms of 10yr yields...

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Residential Fixed Investment Soared Past GDP Growth...

Hidden in the Q3 report on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Thursday, which showed a rebound of 33.1 percent from the 31.4 percent loss in Q2 was news of...
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MBS RECAP: Technicals And Fundamentals Join Forces...

Technicals And Fundamentals Join Forces to Deliver Warning For Rates Whether we're talking about the week as a whole or simply today's trading...
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Mortgage Rates Can Only Hold Out For So Long

It was a bit of a bittersweet day for mortgage rates . On the one hand, it was the Fed's first day buying a new category of mortgage-backed bonds--one...
MBS Commentary

MBS Day Ahead: Fed Starts Buying 1.5 MBS Coupons Today...

Let's do the simply-worded conclusion right up front. For fans of low rates, the Fed's inclusion of 1.5 MBS (30yr) is a good thing, but not some...
MND NewsWire

Pending Home Sales Fall Back to The 2nd Highest Level...

Pending home sales faltered a bit in Septembe r, like new home sales announced earlier this week, the decline ended a four-month winning streak. The National...
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Cap. Mkts., LO Comp Survey, Fulfillment, Retention...

This weekend we receive an extra hour of 2020. If there was ever a reason to end the time change, this certainly is it! Markets don’t like uncertainty...
MBS Commentary

MBS RECAP: Bonds Struggle to Hold Gains; Fed Announces...

Bonds Struggle to Hold Gains Despite Stock Rout As of the 3pm CME close, 10yr yields were higher on the day. Even though the losses were minimal, they're...
Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Rates Inch Lower, But Volatility Risks Are...

When interest rates plummeted in response to the early realities of the pandemic back in March/April, mortgage rates did a terrible job of keeping pace...
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Lower Rates Bringing In More Buyers (And Higher Prices...

The percentage of potential home buyers who perceive housing in their market as affordable increased in the third quarter, at least as reported in a recent...
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Mortgage Apps Rise Slightly, Purchase Loans End Four...

Mortgage application volume rose slightly during the week ended October 23. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measure...
MBS Commentary

MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Confirming a Friendly Bounce,...

October has been unpleasant for the bond market--Treasuries specifically. That's not to say it's been a walk in the park for MBS. They too have...
Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage Rates Mostly Flat Despite Stronger Bond Market

Mortgage rates are mostly determined by the trading levels of mortgage-backed bonds on the open market. When those bonds improve, mortgage rates move lower...
MBS Commentary

MBS RECAP: Bonds Looking Better This Week, But Risks...

Bonds Looking Better This Week, But Risks Remain Today's release of FHFA's home price index showed a sharp acceleration in price growth, with the...
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Homeownership is Growing, Especially Among Younger...

The U.S. homeownership rate in the third quarter fell back slightly from the prior quarter. The second quarter saw the highest level for homeownership...
MBS Commentary

MBS Day Ahead: New Conforming Loan Limits Coming Into...

We'll start off with more of an industry-specific curiosity (as opposed to diving right into markets/rates). Then again, the conforming loan limit...
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Spring Buying Season Shifts, Home Prices Rocket Higher

The impact of low interest rates and pent up buyer demand played out in sharply increasing home prices in August. Both the Federal Housing Finance Agency...
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Freddie's Loan Volume is Up, Delinquency Rate Begins...

Freddie Mac reported this week that its total mortgage portfolio increased at an annualized rate of 17.5 percent in September compared to a 27.7 percent...
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Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 3.00%
|
15 Yr FRM 2.56%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.38%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 108-01 (-0-03)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 109-27 (0-01)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 111-04 (0-10)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps -0.59%
|
Refinance Index 0.23%
|
Purchase Index -2.09%

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