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MBS RECAP: Europe to The Rescue

MBS Day Ahead: EU Weakness Helping US Bonds, But Don't Count...

MBS RECAP: Bonds Battle Back After Opening Weakness

MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Successfully Predict Chinese Rebound

MBS RECAP: Bonds Keep losing Ground. Defensive Positioning or...

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Lower Rates Have Slight Impact on New Loan Stats

Paper on FHA Changes; Tech Report; Compliance and Ops News

Lenders Manage Tiny Profits in 2018 Despite Rate Hikes, Inventories

Mortgage Rates Quickly Find Themselves at 1 Month Highs

New Tax Rules May Have Added to Housing Slowdown

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Lenders Manage Tiny Profits in 2018 Despite Rate Hikes, Inventories; Europe Helping Bonds; Don't Count Chickens

Published: 4/18/2019

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MBS RECAP: Europe to The Rescue

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by Matthew Graham on April 18 2019, 2:31 PM

Global economic data is big business for the bond market these days. With no end in sight to the domestic economic expansion (note: 1.6% vs 0.9% f'cast in today's Retail Sales and another decades-long low in Jobless Claims), any recessionary risks...
MBS Day Ahead: EU Weakness Helping US Bonds, But Don't Count Chickens

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by Matthew Graham on April 18 2019, 10:10 AM

Despite the presence of a big economic report like Retail Sales (which came out much higher than expected) or the unique event risk presented by the Barr report, the defining moment of the trading day will turn out to be the 3:30am release of just-slightly...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Battle Back After Opening Weakness

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by Matthew Graham on April 17 2019, 5:06 PM

As feared, bonds were gearing up for the raft of big-ticket economic data in China overnight. On balance, that data was quite a bit better than expected. The resulting selling spree was thus fairly logical. 10yr yields nearly hit 2.62% before it was over...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Successfully Predict Chinese Rebound

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by Matthew Graham on April 17 2019, 9:06 AM

Over the years, there have been more times than I can count where the financial media has mistakenly assigned some significance to news or events in China. The past week has had its moments in that regard, but this time around, the Chinese economy is...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Keep losing Ground. Defensive Positioning or Something Worse?

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by Matthew Graham on April 16 2019, 5:11 PM

Rates were flat to start the overnight session and didn't bat an eyelash at initial strength in equities markets during Asia-only trading hours. Things changes when European trading got underway with the sizable jump in the DAX (German stocks) coinciding...
MBS Day Ahead: Be Careful What You Read and Whom You Trust

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by Matthew Graham on April 16 2019, 10:32 AM

Reading the news this morning, I came across multiple articles with such bogus claims that I feel compelled to rant about it here. All of the offenders (I stopped looking after 3 out of 3 all said the same thing) suggested that the overnight stock surge...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Defy Friday's Logic to Hold Flat

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by Matthew Graham on April 15 2019, 6:15 PM

What would you expect to care more about Chinese economic data: the US bond market or the Chinese stock market? Option 2? Good, I agree. Now, if you said that US bond yields and Chinese stocks were moving higher together in response to strong Chinese...
MBS Week Ahead: Time to Find Out How Much China Matters

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by Matthew Graham on April 15 2019, 10:12 AM

Ah China... the US financial market's scapegoat of choice for many a swing that has nothing to do with China (with a few big, notable exceptions). Last Friday brought the biggest day of bond market weakness we've seen in a while and Chinese economic...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Quickly Find Themselves Defending 2.55% Ceiling

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by Matthew Graham on April 12 2019, 11:04 AM

The domestic bond market woke up this morning to find itself pushed up against the same ceiling that had offered a friendly bounce late last week. Between now and then, we've seen solid enough progress to reinforce that ceiling, but now it is called...
MBS RECAP: Brexit Punt Successfully Delays The Game

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by Matthew Graham on April 11 2019, 6:33 PM

As expected, the result of the emergency EU summit overnight was a hefty brexit extension, giving the UK until 10/31 to approve a compromise deal to leave the EU. At face value, this wasn't the conclusion bonds wanted, because it keeps economic hope...
MBS Day Ahead: Weaker, Stronger, Flat... As Long As We Hold This Line

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by Matthew Graham on April 11 2019, 10:32 AM

Global financial markets caught a glimpse of a world with 10yr yields above 3% in late 2018, and they didn't like it. A combination of stock selling and Fed accommodation (a sequence of events, really) helped rates move swiftly back in the other direction...
MBS RECAP: Dovish Draghi Deftly Delivers Downbeat Message

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by Matthew Graham on April 10 2019, 5:04 PM

European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi is getting very good at telling the world that the EU economy is in dire straits, but not to worry and that everything should be fine about 6 months from now. He's been saying that for roughly 5 years...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Plead Bullish Case as Fed Takes The Stand

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by Matthew Graham on April 10 2019, 10:02 AM

Wednesday is off to a good start with friendly inflation data leading things off at 8:30am and an even friendlier press conference from European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi. The ECB didn't make any policy changes, but Draghi's tone...
MBS RECAP: Mixed Performance as MBS Slide While Treasuries Improve

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by Matthew Graham on April 09 2019, 5:29 PM

Treasuries were stronger today while MBS were mostly weaker. These days can happen, and they're all the more likely when a few key variables are present. Among those variables are Treasury auctions, big geopolitical risks, and the monthly MBS settlement...
MBS Day Ahead: Light News Day as Markets Level-Off

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by Matthew Graham on April 09 2019, 9:20 AM

There are no significant economic reports or scheduled events on the calendar today, unless you count the 3yr Treasury auction at 1pm (and you probably shouldn't). That leaves bonds in the same positions as stocks and European markets. All have been...

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Mortgage rates rose fairly quickly on Friday, depending on the lender and the scenario. Bonds (which dictate mortgage rates and interest rates in general...
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The domestic bond market woke up this morning to find itself pushed up against the same ceiling that had offered a friendly bounce late last week. Between...

Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 4.34%
|
15 Yr FRM 4.04%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.25%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 103-29 (0-02)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 105-09 (0-01)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 106-24 (0-11)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps -2.47%
|
Refinance Index -2.02%
|
Purchase Index -2.63%

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