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MBS RECAP: Bonds Generally Consolidating Ahead of Jobs Report

MBS Day Ahead: Slow, Steady Rally Wasting No Time Reasserting...

MBS RECAP: Is The Rally Meeting Resistance or Just Consolidation...

MBS Day Ahead: Bond Rally Running Out of Steam or Just Consolidating...

MBS RECAP: Bonds Continue Pushing The Record Pace, But MBS Are...

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Foreign Buyers are Pumping the Brakes on Home Purchases

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Foreign Buyers Pumping the Brakes; Most Mortgage Rate Headlines Are Wrong Today

Published: 8/6/2020

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MBS RECAP: Bonds Generally Consolidating Ahead of Jobs Report

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by Matthew Graham on August 06 2020, 4:49 PM

Bonds Generally Consolidating Ahead of Jobs Report MBS were higher today, but for the week as a whole, they've been flat (and right in line with last Friday's levels as of this afternoon). That doesn't seem like a coincidence based on tomorrow's...
MBS Day Ahead: Slow, Steady Rally Wasting No Time Reasserting Itself

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by Matthew Graham on August 06 2020, 10:07 AM

Yesterday's bond market weakness prompted a conversation about the limits of the current rally. It went a little something like this (<----that's a link you can click). For the non-link-clickers out there, here's a recap: Bonds have been...
MBS RECAP: Is The Rally Meeting Resistance or Just Consolidation?

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by Matthew Graham on August 05 2020, 4:07 PM

Is The Rally Meeting Resistance or Just Consolidation? With modest overnight weakness and a small negative reaction to this morning's headlines (ADP and Treasury issuance), bonds may be encountering some more resistance on their journey toward lower...
MBS Day Ahead: Bond Rally Running Out of Steam or Just Consolidating?

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by Matthew Graham on August 05 2020, 9:31 AM

With modest overnight weakness and a small negative reaction to this morning's headlines (ADP and Treasury issuance), bonds may be encountering some more resistance on their journey toward lower yields and higher prices. Is this a meaningful signal...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Continue Pushing The Record Pace, But MBS Are Lagging

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by Matthew Graham on August 04 2020, 4:11 PM

Bonds Continue Pushing The Record Pace, But MBS Are Lagging Yesterday we asked what would come next for bonds after breaking through resistance levels (.58 in 10yr yields and 103.00 in 2.0 UMBS), what comes next. Such breakouts can be the cue for a corrective...
MBS Day Ahead: Another Day, Another Record High For MBS

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by Matthew Graham on August 04 2020, 9:49 AM

While there's no way to know how the day will wrap up for the MBS market, we know how it's starting out. We also know how 4 of the past 5 days have started out (and wrapped up, for that matter): at all-time highs. The following chart of 2.0 UMBS...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Defend New Territory

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by Matthew Graham on August 03 2020, 4:31 PM

Bonds Defend New Territory Now that bonds have broken through previous resistance levels (.58 in 10yr yields and 103.00 in 2.0 UMBS), what comes next? Rather than look for fast-paced follow-through, it would be enough of a victory to merely see bonds...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Defend New Territory

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by Matthew Graham on August 03 2020, 9:23 AM

Now that bonds have broken through previous resistance levels (.58 in 10yr yields and 103.00 in 2.0 UMBS), what comes next? Rather than look for fast-paced follow-through, it would be enough of a victory to merely see bonds maintain these newly acquired...
MBS RECAP: All-Time Levels All Around. Here's How To Play It

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by Matthew Graham on July 31 2020, 5:04 PM

All-Time Levels All Around. Here's How To Play It Another day, another opportunity for MBS prices to hit record highs and rates to--well... rates are just sort of kicking around a piece of ground in their home town (at all time lows), but notably...
MBS Day Ahead: Month-End; Breakout Confirmation; Mortgage Rates Stuck?

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by Matthew Graham on July 31 2020, 8:50 AM

There's no doubt you'll see excellent mortgage rates when this morning's rate sheets come out. Many lenders will be at or below their previous all-time lows. Many others will be slightly above. And on average, rates will remain in trend that's...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Break The Range, But Mortgage Rates Are Dragging Their Feet

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by Matthew Graham on July 30 2020, 3:55 PM

Bonds Break The Range, But Mortgage Rates Are Dragging Their Feet The simple version of the story: mortgage rates aren't moving lower nearly as quickly as the bond market suggests they should be. There are some very good reasons for that. Today's...
MBS Day Ahead: Q2 GDP Finally Arrives as Bonds Make Case For a Breakout

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by Matthew Graham on July 30 2020, 8:21 AM

Cases are made all the time. Some of them are surefire victories from the start. Others lack the evidence required for a compelling conclusion. The bond market makes both kinds of cases and everything in between. Yesterday's version was definitely...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Break Key Levels After Fed

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by Matthew Graham on July 29 2020, 4:34 PM

Bonds Break Key Levels After Fed Both MBS and Treasuries were right on the edge of their recent ranges heading into Fed day. MBS broke their range right out of the gate while Treasuries waited until the Fed was done before their breakout. If this positive...
Differences Between Previous and Current FOMC Statements

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by Matthew Graham on July 29 2020, 2:02 PM

The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals. The coronavirus outbreak is causing tremendous human and economic...
MBS Day Ahead: Fed Day. Will It Matter?

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by Matthew Graham on July 29 2020, 9:13 AM

Pound for pound, nothing has more power to move the bond market than Federal Reserve Announcements. We'll get one at 2pm today, but it remains to be seen if anyone will care. The Fed doesn't like to surprise the market--especially at times of...

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All-Time Levels All Around. Here's How To Play It Another day, another opportunity for MBS prices to hit record highs and rates to--well... rates are...
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Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 2.82%
|
15 Yr FRM 2.38%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.62%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 107-18 (0-03)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 109-15 (0-09)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 110-10 (0-10)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps -5.12%
|
Refinance Index -6.77%
|
Purchase Index -1.76%

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