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MBS Day Ahead: How The Range Expands

MBS RECAP: Despite Interesting Tidbits From Fed, Bonds Barely...

MBS Day Ahead: Closer Look at Precedents For The Next Big Move...

MBS RECAP: The Range May Be Breaking...

MBS Day Ahead: Trading Range on Borrowed Time

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Mortgage Rates Near Long-Term Lows After Fed Minutes

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Mortgage Application Volume Makes a Return to Positive Territory

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Rates Near Long-Term Lows After Fed; Addressing Minority Homeownership Disparity; Mortgage Apps Bounce Back

Published: 2/20/2019

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MBS Day Ahead: How The Range Expands

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by Matthew Graham on February 21 2019, 8:29 AM

If you're just joining us, we've been talking quite a bit in recent weeks about a consolidation range/trend in the bond market. This refers to a series of higher lows and lower highs resulting in a narrowing trading range--one that eventually...
MBS RECAP: Despite Interesting Tidbits From Fed, Bonds Barely Budge

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by Matthew Graham on February 20 2019, 5:04 PM

One of the most interesting parts of today's Fed Minutes release was their characterization of the market's surprise at December announcement. At best, the Fed was seen as being a shade too optimistic about the economy and the ability to remain...
MBS Day Ahead: Closer Look at Precedents For The Next Big Move

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by Matthew Graham on February 20 2019, 9:18 AM

Yesterday, I mentioned that it was rare to see short-term momentum technicals consolidate in the center of their "overbought vs oversold" range. This refers to a fast stochastic oscillator--one of many ways that traders apply math the a time...
MBS RECAP: The Range May Be Breaking...

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by Matthew Graham on February 19 2019, 5:17 PM

The range may be breaking! Well, one of the ranges we've been tracking may be breaking, as long as tomorrow sees bond markets hold the gains they saw today. Unfortunately, if that happens, it won't really mean that much--at least not yet. The...
MBS Day Ahead: Trading Range on Borrowed Time

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by Matthew Graham on February 19 2019, 9:12 AM

For all of the potential market movers that anyone can discuss so far in 2019, we really haven't seen any concerted effort to take yields higher or lower from key technical levels. The higher of those levels was implied by late 2018 trading and the...
MBS RECAP: Deceptively Relevant Econ Data But Range Prevails

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by Matthew Graham on February 15 2019, 3:43 PM

Since Retail Sales rocked markets yesterday, perhaps bonds would be interested in responding to economic data again today? This question seemed to have been answered when bonds apparently jumped following this morning's 8:30am economic data. The only...
MBS Day Ahead: Range Trade Likely to Dominate Heading Into Holiday Weekend

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by Matthew Graham on February 15 2019, 9:53 AM

Rates were at long term highs in early November 2019. Several global economic risks were beginning to swirl at the same time. These included a slowdown in German GDP, the weakest Chinese retail sales in 15 years, Italian budget drama, and a Federal Reserve...
MBS RECAP: Dormant Data Returns in a Big Way

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by Matthew Graham on February 14 2019, 5:18 PM

Of all the reports silenced by the government shutdown, Retail Sales was probably the most missed. It didn't help that December is a rather important month for such data. December's report finally arrived today, and it made waves . While there...
MBS Day Ahead: Retail Sales is Back! Will Traders Pretend Nothing Changed?

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by Matthew Graham on February 14 2019, 8:31 AM

Perhaps it wasn't their fault, but several top tier economic reports up and left us during the government shutdown. We knew we'd see them again at some point, but in the meantime, we had to adapt to gleaning economic cues elsewhere. Moreover,...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Lose Ground on Shutdown Deal Hopes and Inflation Data

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by Matthew Graham on February 13 2019, 6:18 PM

At first glance, this morning's weakness was all about the Consumer Price Index (CPI)--the most widely-followed inflation report. In order to make a case for CPI causing the weakness, we'd have to assert that a core year-over-year reading of 2...
MBS Day Ahead: How Inflation Matters in The Bigger Picture

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by Matthew Graham on February 13 2019, 8:48 AM

This morning brings the week's first major economic report in the form of the Consumer Price Index (CPI)--one of the biggest inflation reports. Inflation has been an on-again, off-again market mover for the bond market over the past 10 years for a...
MBS RECAP: Shutdown Deal Hurts Bonds, But Mostly Helped Stocks

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by Matthew Graham on February 12 2019, 5:18 PM

It's hard to say exactly where stocks and bonds would be today absent the news from yesterday night regarding a possible shutdown deal. Both sides of the market were already in the process of bouncing as of last Friday--with yesterday's closing...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Gearing Up For a Big Move

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by Matthew Graham on February 12 2019, 9:46 AM

In the shorter-term, there's nothing too interesting about the past few weeks of trading. Relative to the highs and lows set in the first 3 weeks of the year, the subsequent range has been well-contained. Over the past 2 weeks, it's been getting...
MBS RECAP: Potential Warning About The Range

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by Matthew Graham on February 11 2019, 4:26 PM

I have to stretch to make a day like today interesting. As I'm fond of doing, I could easily label this one of those unofficial 3-day weekend type of Mondays. That description still works as 10yr yields were only 2bps higher and Fannie 4.0 MBS lost...
MBS Week Ahead: Shutdown Data Finally Starts to Flow as Next Shutdown Looms

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by Matthew Graham on February 11 2019, 8:53 AM

The two key fiscal issues at the moment are the trade deal with China and the expiration of temporary government funding at the end of this week. Between those two, the trade deal is by far and away the bigger deal for markets. The shutdown is still important...

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Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 4.44%
|
15 Yr FRM 4.05%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.28%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 103-17 (-0-04)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 104-26 (-0-05)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 105-31 (-0-01)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps -2.52%
|
Refinance Index 0.33%
|
Purchase Index -4.92%

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