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MBS RECAP: After Fed, Bonds Tune Out Into Weekend

MBS Day Ahead: No Data, and Maybe Even No Drama

MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Not Out of Woods Yet

MBS RECAP: Bond Markets Cheer Fed Announcement, Sorta...

Differences Between Current and Previous FOMC Statements

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Mortgage Rates Lowest in Weeks; Refi Proportion and Prepayments Surge

Published: 9/23/2016

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MBS RECAP: After Fed, Bonds Tune Out Into Weekend

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by Matthew Graham on September 23 2016, 3:58 PM

For MBS Live members, this recap will largely be a rehash of the day's most recent update which pointed out a consolidative range in force over the past two days. Bond weakened just enough for a small amount of concern earlier today, but a friendly...
MBS Day Ahead: No Data, and Maybe Even No Drama

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by Matthew Graham on September 23 2016, 9:42 AM

Bond markets have been surprisingly calm this week, given what's at stake. 3 weeks ago, we were faced with the new prospect of the European Central Bank potentially lifting its foot off the accelerator of quantitative easing, the new prospect of Japan...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Not Out of Woods Yet

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by Matthew Graham on September 22 2016, 9:43 AM

The Fed announcement is in the rearview and bond markets are beginning their 3rd straight day of improvement. Does this mean last week's sharper move higher in rate was a false alarm? We have to be careful about jumping to conclusions when it comes...
MBS RECAP: Bond Markets Cheer Fed Announcement, Sorta...

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by Matthew Graham on September 21 2016, 5:41 PM

It was an interesting Fed day for bond markets, with 10yr yields dropping 3.8bps and 2yr yields not dropping at all. That's the first clue that markets were not merely trading the prospects of a Fed rate hike (which would have the most effect on shorter...
Differences Between Current and Previous FOMC Statements

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by Matthew Graham on September 21 2016, 2:02 PM

(additions underlined, deletions struck-through) For immediate release Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June July indicates that the labor market strengthened has continued to strengthen and that growth of economic activity...
MBS Day Ahead: Bank of Japan Did What Now? Bring on The Fed!

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by Matthew Graham on September 21 2016, 9:27 AM

Bond markets had two central bank announcements to endure today, and the first one is already out of the way, sort of... The Bank of Japan unleashed a policy announcement so complicated and nuanced that it seems markets have put the task of trading it...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Continue Range-Trade for 5th Straight Day

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by Matthew Graham on September 20 2016, 4:09 PM

For the 5th day in a row, the total trading range in Treasuries and MBS fell inside the single day range set last Tuesday. Market-watchers consider even ONE so-called "inside day" to be significant, and we just had 5. So yeah... markets are...
MBS Day Ahead: Range-Trade Intact as Central Banks Approach

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by Matthew Graham on September 20 2016, 9:09 AM

The approach to this week's big-ticket events has been very straightforward so far. This has been aided, no doubt, by the absence of other significant events in the immediate vicinity, as well as the fact that it's neither the end nor the beginning...
MBS RECAP: Corporate Bonds Interrupt Flat Afternoon

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by Matthew Graham on September 19 2016, 5:32 PM

It was a pretty simple day as far as bond markets are concerned. The collective unconscious of the bond-trading population was perfectly content to extent the weekend, unofficially. For most of the day, it looked like a perfectly viable plan, considering...
MBS Day Ahead: Fed and Bank of Japan on Wednesday

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by Matthew Graham on September 19 2016, 10:06 AM

The past several years have marked a historically low level of a volatility in interest rates. People define volatility in different ways, so let's just agree that the gaps between the highs and the lows have been smaller over the past few years than...
MBS RECAP: Uninspired Day Belies Next Week's Risks

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by Matthew Graham on September 16 2016, 5:08 PM

I'll save a majority of risk-mongering for next week's opener, but some of it is warranted for today. The timing of calendar events has resulted in natural opportunity for a "lull" in the action . This lull was dependent on this morning's...
MBS Day Ahead: Revisiting 2016's Dominant Trends

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by Matthew Graham on September 16 2016, 9:26 AM

With the most recent spike in rates, 10yr yields have returned to 2016's dominant trend-lines for an interesting bounce (or "stall," depending on how things shake out). The trend-lines in question are the "higher lows" and "lower...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Abstain, but Risks Remain

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by Matthew Graham on September 15 2016, 4:24 PM

Bond markets had an opportunity to jump back on the selling wagon today after yesterday's positive bounce. As we discussed, yesterday's gains were driven, in part, by short-covering. That's another way of saying that bond sellers were taking...
MBS Day Ahead: Somewhat Massive Glut of Economic Data, Led by Retail Sales

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by Matthew Graham on September 15 2016, 8:29 AM

After several days with essentially no relevant economic data, bond markets will get an entire week's worth this morning. The headliner is undoubtedly Retail Sales , which is expected to come in at -0.1 after last month's 0.0 reading. But that's...
MBS RECAP: Bond Rout Takes a Break, But is it Over?

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by Matthew Graham on September 14 2016, 5:22 PM

Bond markets made modest gains today, but yields nonetheless closed at their highest recent levels apart from the previous day. It was the same dynamic seen on Monday, and indeed on so many of the "pause" days that intersperse these higher-conviction...

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For the 5th day in a row, the total trading range in Treasuries and MBS fell inside the single day range set last Tuesday. Market-watchers consider even...
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Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 3.42%
|
15 Yr FRM 2.78%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.58%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 109-15 (-0-01)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 111-05 (0-02)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 112-20 (-0-01)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps 0.43%
|
Refinance Index 0.51%
|
Purchase Index 0.38%

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