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MBS RECAP: Bonds Erase Losses as Trade Deal Underwhelms

So Much Trade War Drama, But Bonds in a Range

MBS Day Ahead: A New Way to Look at The Range

MBS RECAP: Fed Proves Surprisingly Capable of Intraday Inspiration...

Differences Between Previous and Current FOMC Statements

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Mortgage Rates Hard-Hit by Trade Headlines

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Rates Bounce As Trade Deal Underwhelms; Has Refi Boom Run Out of Steam?

Published: 12/13/2019

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MBS RECAP: Bonds Erase Losses as Trade Deal Underwhelms

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by Matthew Graham on December 13 2019, 5:10 PM

Bonds were leading off in a slightly friendly direction during the overnight session, largely because we hadn't really heard from China with respect to yesterday's trade deal drama. Nonetheless, it seemed like more concrete steps were being taken...
So Much Trade War Drama, But Bonds in a Range

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by Matthew Graham on December 13 2019, 11:05 AM

The litany of updates/alerts listed below effectively serves to frame the launch sequence for today's trading. If you don't care to wade through the minutia, just read the most recent update or simply allow me to paraphrase: There was some confusion...
MBS Day Ahead: A New Way to Look at The Range

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by Matthew Graham on December 12 2019, 9:15 AM

Yesterday brought a nice little rally in response to a surprisingly rate-friendly press conference with Fed Chair Powell. The counterpoint to that conclusion is seen in the chart I posted in yesterday's recap. Specifically, bonds began the day rallying...
MBS RECAP: Fed Proves Surprisingly Capable of Intraday Inspiration

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by Matthew Graham on December 11 2019, 4:55 PM

We moved from NFP not mattering (and then causing a surprisingly big intraday stir) to the Fed undergoing quite a similar routine. Granted, in the bigger picture, neither event will be memorable or have a lasting impact on rate momentum, but they both...
Differences Between Previous and Current FOMC Statements

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by Matthew Graham on December 11 2019, 2:02 PM

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in SeptemberOctober indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months...
MBS Day Ahead: Fed Reading From Same Script as Jobs Report

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by Matthew Graham on December 11 2019, 8:32 AM

Last week, I stunned the world by claiming that NFP (the nonfarm payrolls component of the big jobs report) "didn't matter." OK, maybe not the whole world, and maybe people weren't completely stunned, but in the long-term market following...
MBS RECAP: Trade Headlines Stealing Thunder From Heavy Hitters

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by Matthew Graham on December 10 2019, 5:15 PM

Last week saw an apparently important jobs report ATTEMPT to have a lasting impact on financial markets only for the move to be completely erased by this morning. Labor market data was already a bit of an outcast owing to its consistently strong performance...
MBS Day Ahead: Still Waiting on Bigger Potential Market Movers

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by Matthew Graham on December 10 2019, 8:33 AM

In the grand scheme of things, today will likely be another placeholder of a day unless some unexpected (and fairly significant) trade war update happens to come out. That leaves the afternoon's 10yr auction as the only moderately capable market mover...
MBS Day Ahead: Last Serious Trading Week of 2019

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by Matthew Graham on December 09 2019, 9:07 AM

It's been almost exactly 3 months since the quick rate spike in early September. That, of course, followed an impressive run to the lowest rates in more than 3 years in August. The combination of those long-term lows and the quick bounce set the stage...
MBS RECAP: NFP Swings For Fences, But Still Comes Up Short

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by Matthew Graham on December 06 2019, 3:30 PM

This morning's commentary was titled "NFP Doesn't Matter (Even If It Looks Like It Does)." Apparently NFP didn't like being called out because it did everything in its power to prove me wrong. Ultimately though, it would need to...
MBS Day Ahead: NFP Doesn't Matter (Even If It Looks Like It Does)

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by Matthew Graham on December 06 2019, 8:31 AM

First Friday of the month, and thus time for the nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data. Also known simply as "the jobs report," no other piece of economic data has as much of a track record of inspiring massive market movement. But in the current environment...
MBS RECAP: NFP's Stolen Thunder

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by Matthew Graham on December 05 2019, 5:41 PM

After the little bout of whipsaw volatility of the past 3 trading sessions, it will be a tall order for even the mighty NFP to move markets much tomorrow (as long as it's not insanely far from the forecast). Thank the trade war for that. Trade headlines...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Have Forgotten All About Tuesday's Trade Drama

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by Matthew Graham on December 05 2019, 9:48 AM

Bonds took Trump at his word in the wee hours of Tuesday morning with respect to waiting until Nov 2020 (or later) to finalize a trade deal with China. I suggested that was a silly thing to do at the time because not only was it likely a mere negotiation...
MBS RECAP: Bonds at The Whim of Trade Headlines

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by Matthew Graham on December 04 2019, 4:28 PM

Bonds sold off clearly and somewhat abruptly following a Bloomberg article on the trade negotiations being in better shape than markets might assume based on the previous day's trade headlines (which were also the biggest market movers of the day...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Still Tuned In to Trade, But Today's Data Matters Too

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by Matthew Graham on December 04 2019, 8:28 AM

Trade headlines rocked markets yesterday, making for the biggest single-day bond rally since early August--even after the gains moderated in the afternoon. The pace of the move was perhaps a bit surprising given the recent evidence of desensitization...

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Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 3.78%
|
15 Yr FRM 3.43%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.90%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 105-06 (0-02)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 106-24 (-0-06)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 107-21 (-0-12)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps -2.18%
|
Refinance Index -7.75%
|
Purchase Index 0%

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