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MBS RECAP: Super Sideways and Slightly Weaker

MBS Day Ahead: Risks and Opportunities With Past Precedent

MBS RECAP: Bonds Find Buyers Thanks to Europe

MBS Day Ahead: Scary Technical Pattern Shaping Up For Bonds

MBS RECAP: Fed Proves to be Mere Speedbump For Bond Sellers

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MBS RECAP: Super Sideways and Slightly Weaker

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by Matthew Graham on October 19 2018, 8:02 PM

Bonds were stuck between a rock and a hard place today. Actually they were stuck between stocks and a European place. Stocks made a case for a bond rally (not that stocks are in total control of bonds, but all other things being equal, stocks' intraday...
MBS Day Ahead: Risks and Opportunities With Past Precedent

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by Matthew Graham on October 19 2018, 8:54 AM

We've talked a bit (in this commentary and in the live chat on MBS Live ) about the similarities between the October sell-off and one seen in April/May 2018. Both took yields to what were, at the time, the highest yields in years. Both examples have...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Find Buyers Thanks to Europe

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by Matthew Graham on October 18 2018, 5:04 PM

Bond markets began the day almost perfectly unchanged relative to yesterday's latest levels. That means the nasty little afternoon selling spree was still priced-in as of this morning. That continued to be the case until the 11am hour. At that point...
MBS Day Ahead: Scary Technical Pattern Shaping Up For Bonds

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by Matthew Graham on October 18 2018, 9:44 AM

What is a pivot point ? In our primer on the topic, I talk mostly about levels that have repeatedly offered resistance or support to bond yields, but there's another relevant addition to the definition. Pivot points can also be suggested by a singular...
MBS RECAP: Fed Proves to be Mere Speedbump For Bond Sellers

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by Matthew Graham on October 17 2018, 5:06 PM

Hindsight really is 20/20, and foresight wasn't too bad either. Either way, the picture is becoming clearer as bond yields move back toward recent highs in the wake of today's Fed Minutes. Let's start with the foresight . We'd been expecting...
MBS Day Ahead: Fed Minutes Approach; and a Musical Guest!

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by Matthew Graham on October 17 2018, 9:57 AM

There are only so many ways to say that bonds are range-bound and waiting for the motivation to break that range. Could it be the Fed Minutes today? Sure! But could the Fed Minutes also be a non-event that only prolongs the sideways indecision? Again...
MBS RECAP: Uneventful Day For Bonds; Fed Minutes Tomorrow

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by Matthew Graham on October 16 2018, 4:30 PM

The S&P recovered roughly half of its losses from last week today, decisively breaking out of the consolidation pattern that had been in place through this morning. Bonds, on the other hand, are still in the consolidation pattern that accompanied...
MBS Day Ahead: What Are We Waiting For?

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by Matthew Graham on October 16 2018, 8:40 AM

Waiting... That's all anyone has been doing since last Thursday in financial markets. One day prior, stocks jumped off a cliff and bond yields raced to the edge of the same cliff and peered over the side. It's like one of those far-fetched movie...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Mostly Ignore Retails Sales Data

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by Matthew Graham on October 15 2018, 5:32 PM

This morning's Retail Sales report was arguably the biggest-ticket of the week in terms of economic data. It speaks to the ongoing level of uncertainty that we saw almost no reaction despite a headline of +0.1 vs median forecast of +0.6, at least...
MBS Week Ahead: Did Bonds Get a Pass From Stocks Last Week?

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by Matthew Graham on October 15 2018, 9:04 AM

Before last week's stock rout, bonds were stuck in a rut. For four straight sessions, they hit the highest intraday yields since 2011. Even after the 3rd biggest stock sell-off since the financial crisis, Treasuries were reluctant to rally in any...
MBS RECAP: Uneventful Conclusion to a Crazy Week

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by Matthew Graham on October 12 2018, 7:07 PM

Referring to the week of bond trading as " crazy " is a bit of a stretch. If we bring stocks into the mix, or if we go back to last Wednesday, it's been a crazy 7 business days (bonds were closed on Monday). As you're well aware, stocks...
MBS Day Ahead: Another Day of Stock Watching; Don't Expect Miracles

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by Matthew Graham on October 12 2018, 9:59 AM

Is there potential for today to turn into a "black Friday" with catastrophic stock losses that usher in the most amazing bond rally we've seen in years? Sure... that could happen any time, really, depending on the underlying events driving...
MBS RECAP: Once More With (Slightly Less) Feeling

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by Matthew Graham on October 11 2018, 6:16 PM

Bonds rallied today, eventually. Most of the session was fairly flat with the afternoon bringing most of the rally thanks to another sell-off in stocks. This time, the stock losses were more measured, but only relative to days like yesterday. On a normal...
MBS Day Ahead: Here's What a Bond Rally Costs in Terms of Stock Selling

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by Matthew Graham on October 11 2018, 9:25 AM

Anything more than 20 points is a big day of selling in terms of the S&P, but that's a small enough number to be relatively common, periodically. From there, a sell-off of more than roughly 33 points becomes much less common. By the time we're...
MBS RECAP: 4 Days After Bonds Went Crazy, Stocks Took a Turn

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by Matthew Graham on October 10 2018, 6:35 PM

Remember last Wednesday? Rather forget it? Yeah, me too. That was the day that bond yields spiked last week. The size and speed of the move was out of line with any of the common explanations. These things happen, of course, and when they do, it's...

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Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 4.99%
|
15 Yr FRM 4.47%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.42%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 102-08 (-0-04)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 104-08 (-0-03)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 105-25 (-0-04)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps 0.03%
|
Refinance Index -0.10%
|
Purchase Index 0.12%

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