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MBS RECAP: Markets Finally Doing Interesting Things, But...

MBS Day Ahead: The Obvious Bounce Could Be Too Obvious

MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Digest ECB and Disease Risks

MBS Day Ahead: Infinite Faith vs Infinite Resignation: Bond Market...

MBS Week Ahead: Light Data Week Leaves Focus Overseas

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MBS RECAP: Markets Finally Doing Interesting Things, But...

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by Matthew Graham on January 24 2020, 6:06 PM

We had to wait all the way until January 24th of 2020, but bonds finally offered their first real shred of willingness to challenge the established range of late 2019. When we talk about ranges, we use 10yr Treasuries for these reasons . In 10yr terms...
MBS Day Ahead: The Obvious Bounce Could Be Too Obvious

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by Matthew Graham on January 24 2020, 10:49 AM

As the week comes to a close, we find bonds continuing to trickle toward the lower end of the range that has prevailed for nearly 3 months. In terms of 10yr yields, the upper boundary is clearly established at 1.95%. The lower boundary is slightly more...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Digest ECB and Disease Risks

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by Matthew Graham on January 23 2020, 9:13 AM

The bond market--widely expected to have been launching yields up and over 2% in 2020--is instead in the process of testing it's best levels since early December. This has been made possible by a combination of unexpected bond-friendly factors, or...
MBS Day Ahead: Infinite Faith vs Infinite Resignation: Bond Market Edition

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by Matthew Graham on January 22 2020, 9:51 AM

You know things are bad when I resort to invoking Kierkegaard in bond market commentary, but that's what it's come to. Our quest to observe something interesting in terms of rate momentum is beginning to feel hopeless. In fact, if someone wanted...
MBS Week Ahead: Light Data Week Leaves Focus Overseas

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by Matthew Graham on January 21 2020, 10:22 AM

In addition to being a 4-day trading week due to yesterday's holiday, there's also a general lack of big-ticket economic data on tap. In fact, there isn't a single report that qualifies as "top-tier" in terms of market movement potential...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Cap Extraordinarily Tame Week Despite Excuses

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by Matthew Graham on January 17 2020, 7:16 PM

We've seen a whole lot more movement in the bond market for a whole lot less motivation than we had this week. Back to back econ data shockers (Philly Fed and Housing Starts) were scarcely able to get yields back up to Monday morning's highs,...
Markets Wrapping Things Up Ahead of Long Weekend

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by Matthew Graham on January 17 2020, 10:47 AM

Sometimes the market moves in clear response to a headline event or the scheduled release of an economic report. We have clear examples of this recently. last week's Iran-related escalation (and de-escalation) had massive and immediate impacts that...
MBS Day Ahead: Robust Day of Econ Data and Corporate Earnings

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by Matthew Graham on January 16 2020, 9:07 AM

Bonds continue to be well-contained by the prevailing consolidation range--a series of higher lows and static highs that's been in place in its current form since mid October. A big break outside that range could serve as a cue for sustained momentum...
MBS RECAP: Most Interesting Part of Today is That it Comes Just Before Tomorrow

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by Matthew Graham on January 15 2020, 3:42 PM

Today marked a rare mid-week "total dud" in terms of bond market momentum developments. This was made all the more striking by the fact that bonds certainly COULD have developed some sort of reaction strategy based on the particulars of the...
MBS Day Ahead: Dear Bond Market, I Challenge You To Do Something Interesting

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by Matthew Graham on January 15 2020, 9:17 AM

Bonds have been able to put in a few days with moderate movement both higher and lower in yield, but have generally been holding inside a range that is even narrower than the one seen during December. December's range, in turn, was narrower than November's...
MBS Day Ahead: Yes, MBS Have Definitely Been Outperforming Treasuries In General

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by Matthew Graham on January 14 2020, 9:51 AM

More often than not during the past few months, a quick glance at the MBS Live dashboard reveals that MBS are making better gains than Treasuries. Is this the way it always is? Is something new and different happening? Why hasn't it been as noticeable...
MBS Week Ahead: Limited Econ Data and Phase 1 Trade Deal Signing

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by Matthew Graham on January 13 2020, 10:10 AM

Rather than serve to accelerate or crush the negative bond market momentum building at the end of 2019, 2020 has only compounded the broader sideways trend. It hasn't been as boring as "sideways" tends to be either! Credit the Iran flare...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Doubling Down on Sideways Bets

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by Matthew Graham on January 10 2020, 10:02 AM

With NFP coming out just slightly weaker than expected and the bond market not undergoing much of a reaction in either direction, the rest of the day becomes a relative non-event in the bigger picture. This is in the same vein as a much bigger anticlimactic...
MBS RECAP: Something For Everyone Today

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by Matthew Graham on January 09 2020, 5:26 PM

Do you like it when MBS outperform? How about when they underperform? Are you a fan of bond market gains? Or do you prefer losses? Would you like to see rates making a case for a ceiling bounce? Or is it more meaningful if they're bouncing on a floor...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Are Just About Done Reacting to Iran. What Next?

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by Matthew Graham on January 09 2020, 9:09 AM

The bond market and many other markets are still in the process of retracing the steps they took to price-in the risk of a new war in the Middle East. Granted, that risk wasn't exactly full blown, but it was clearly in control of pretty much everything...

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Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 3.61%
|
15 Yr FRM 3.22%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.69%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 105-26 (0-01)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 107-04 (0-06)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 107-21 (-0-04)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps -1.21%
|
Refinance Index -1.77%
|
Purchase Index -2.01%

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