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MBS RECAP: Big Risks Ahead For Rates and Some Solid Opporunities...

MBS Day Ahead: Another Chance to Defend The Range

MBS RECAP: Bonds Suddenly Wondering if They've Been Too Gloomy...

MBS Day Ahead: How Data Can Move Markets Even When It's Not...

MBS RECAP: Here's The Only Reason Mortgage Rates Have Moved...

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MBS RECAP: Big Risks Ahead For Rates and Some Solid Opporunities Right Now

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by Matthew Graham on June 04 2020, 4:15 PM

Big Risks Ahead For Rates and Some Solid Opporunities Right Now Treasury yields broke one important ceiling yesterday (.74%) and another today at .79% before finding support at .823%. This leaves them at the highest levels since late March and in danger...
MBS Day Ahead: Another Chance to Defend The Range

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by Matthew Graham on June 04 2020, 8:50 AM

Yesterday's econ data caused a stir in the bond market, forcing yields to break above a key ceiling at .74%. Can they make it back below that ceiling today or will things go from bad to worse with a break of the next important ceiling at .79%? The...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Suddenly Wondering if They've Been Too Gloomy on The Economy

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by Matthew Graham on June 03 2020, 3:54 PM

Econ Data Causing Bonds to Reconsider Commitment to Super Low Yields Bonds haven't been interested in econ data because none of it has had the ability to tell much of a story. Today's ADP Employment report is arguably an exception as it was staggeringly...
MBS Day Ahead: How Data Can Move Markets Even When It's Not Supposed To

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by Matthew Graham on June 03 2020, 9:23 AM

It's the first Wednesday of the month and thus time for ADP Employment data. The stated intention of this report is to predict the final revision of the official nonfarm payroll (NFP) count in the big jobs report that follows 2 days later. Because...
MBS RECAP: Here's The Only Reason Mortgage Rates Have Moved Lower Recently

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by Matthew Graham on June 02 2020, 3:11 PM

Here's The Only Reason Mortgage Rates Have Moved Lower Recently "Because they were so much higher than they should have been in March and April..." Seriously, that's the reason mortgage rates have been able to move lower even as Treasury...
MBS Day Ahead: MBS Have Followed Treasuries, But Rates Haven't Followed MBS

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by Matthew Graham on June 02 2020, 9:20 AM

Today is the lightest of the week in terms of scheduled market movers on the econ calendar (there really aren't any to speak of unless you count the New York ISM data and we barely do). In addition, bonds are fairly flat in the bigger picture. Point...
MBS RECAP: Timing of Today's Volatility Could Create Some Opportunity

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by Matthew Graham on June 01 2020, 2:57 PM

There's no way to predict the future for rates and markets, but there are occasionally tactical opportunities. Today's version involves lenders being forced to price rate sheets when MBS had just swung down to the lowest levels of the day. Prices have...
MBS Week Ahead: Can Bonds Confirm The Breakout?

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by Matthew Graham on June 01 2020, 8:47 AM

A resilient performance at the end of last week means that bonds have easily staked a claim to a sideways range that's been intact for more than 2 months now. We had been following a slightly negative trend in Treasuries (seen in the yellow lines...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Look to Challenge Trend With Powell on Deck

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by Matthew Graham on May 29 2020, 8:52 AM

The next Fed announcement is 1.5 weeks away and so it's time to start ramping up expectations for the details of the Fed's official QE announcement. But wait... Aren't they buying a ton of bonds already? Indeed, the Fed continues purchasing...
MBS Day Ahead: Why We're Watching Treasuries

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by Matthew Graham on May 28 2020, 9:14 AM

The market reaction to coronavirus made a mess of the relationship between Treasuries and MBS (and between MBS and mortgage rates for that matter). These disconnections can happen from time to time and when they do, we stop following trends in Treasuries...
MBS Day Ahead: Rising Rate Trend Intact, But Motivation is Required

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by Matthew Graham on May 27 2020, 9:17 AM

Today's first chart shows the trend we've been following in 10yr Treasury yields. It is pointed in an unfriendly direction (i.e. "up"), but at a fairly gentle pace in the bigger picture. Even then, such trends are by no means crystal...
MBS Week Ahead: Beatings Can Continue Until Market Morale Deteriorates

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by Matthew Graham on May 26 2020, 9:07 AM

No need to overcomplicate the current narrative: the overall financial market is attempting to balance the reopening of the economy with the risk of COVID resurgence, all the while receiving a boost from massive global stimulus efforts. No matter how...
MBS Day Ahead: Not Reading Too Much Into Things Ahead of 3.5-Day Weekend

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by Matthew Graham on May 22 2020, 9:37 AM

Treasuries started out stronger after overnight drama between China and Hong Kong caused a " risk-off " trade (i.e. sell stocks, buy bonds). MBS continue lagging Treasuries. What's up with that? The performance between MBS and Treasuries...
MBS Day Ahead: Two Potential Targets For Today's Potential Bond Rally

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by Matthew Graham on May 21 2020, 9:03 AM

Treasuries held onto yesterday's gains in the overnight session and are starting the day in slightly better shape (MBS are roughly unchanged). This means that 10yr yields continue adhering to a technical pattern we've been following for the past...
MBS Day Ahead: What is MBS 'Outperformance' And Why Are We Seeing It?

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by Matthew Graham on May 20 2020, 9:50 AM

I've been mentioning MBS outperformance and underperformance quite a bit recently, but what do these terms really mean and why do we care? First off, we always care about strength and weakness in mortgage bonds as they are the primary building block...

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The next Fed announcement is 1.5 weeks away and so it's time to start ramping up expectations for the details of the Fed's official QE announcement...

Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 3.13%
|
15 Yr FRM 2.68%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.05%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 107-30 (-0-03)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 109-13 (0-00)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 109-28 (-0-10)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps -3.86%
|
Refinance Index -8.64%
|
Purchase Index 5.26%

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