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MBS RECAP: Bonds Manage to Close 'Unchanged' Despite...

MBS Day Ahead: Most Traders Thinking "Don't Rock The...

MBS RECAP: Introducing The "Snow Cohn"

MBS Day Ahead: Trader Ghost Town Greases Skids For Volatility...

MBS RECAP: Bonds Rallied on Trump Tweet Before it Ever Came Out

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Appraisal News; Lock Process Changes; HARP, CRT

Trump Administration Drama Pushing Rates Even Lower

Do’s and Don’t’s For Divorce Attorneys (and Their Clients Owning...

CoreLogic - Don't Overlook Rates in Affordability Discussions

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Published: 8/18/2017

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MBS RECAP: Bonds Manage to Close 'Unchanged' Despite Some Volatility

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by Matthew Graham on August 18 2017, 8:20 PM

In the Day Ahead, we discussed bond traders' probable goals regarding keeping things as calm as possible. This depended on unexpected headlines and movements in external markets. Either of those were capable of throwing curveballs , and both threw...
MBS Day Ahead: Most Traders Thinking "Don't Rock The Boat"

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by Matthew Graham on August 18 2017, 7:34 AM

A maritime analogy for bond trading in the Summertime... In the summer months especially, there's a boat-friendly baseline weather pattern offshore. Lest you think that's a generality that doesn't merit your full confidence, check out the...
MBS RECAP: Introducing The "Snow Cohn"

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by Matthew Graham on August 17 2017, 6:01 PM

What do you get when bond markets embark on a snowball rally due to headlines concerning Trump's Economic Advisor Gary Cohn? A delicious "Snow Cohn," of course (my team of writers assured me that was worth what I paid). In all seriousness...
MBS Day Ahead: Trader Ghost Town Greases Skids For Volatility

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by Matthew Graham on August 17 2017, 10:22 AM

With this morning's econ data already out and having no effect on bond markets, the only other report for the week is tomorrow morning's Consumer Sentiment--admittedly not the biggest market mover in the world. The backdrop for any potential volatility...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Rallied on Trump Tweet Before it Ever Came Out

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by Matthew Graham on August 16 2017, 5:28 PM

Today looked like it would be all about waiting for the Fed Minutes to see if there were any surprises. That plan began in fairly good shape, with only a mild rally following weaker residential construction data. By mid-day, bonds were staging near their...
MBS Day Ahead: How Much Might Today's Fed Minutes Matter?

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by Matthew Graham on August 16 2017, 9:32 AM

Today's biggest calendar item is the release of the FOMC Minutes at 2pm. The Minutes provide synopsis of the meeting that took place in the 2 days leading up to the official Fed announcement in late July. That announcement was very little changed...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Threaten Momentum Shift

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by Matthew Graham on August 15 2017, 4:15 PM

Today was mostly about North Korean de-escalation, and somewhat about stronger economic data. If you haven't heard 43 times already, North Korea graciously decided to hold off on their little plan to nuke Guam (though the little plan of marching up...
MBS Day Ahead: The Blessing and Curse of The Geopolitical Risk Cycle

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by Matthew Graham on August 15 2017, 9:08 AM

Geopolitical risk is one of the most intuitive market movers for bonds. Threats of nuclear attacks from North Korea (as well as the rhetorical response from the US) are a classic example of geopolitical risk. Were there to be an actual nuclear attack...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Lose Ground on Various Headlines

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by Matthew Graham on August 14 2017, 5:16 PM

Bond markets lost ground today, with all of the weakness arriving during the overnight session. The weakness was driven by a general "risk-on" move in financial markets, which tends to favor stocks at the expense of bonds. In today's case...
MBS Week Ahead: Risk of Resistance Remains; What Technicals Can Actually Tell Us

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by Matthew Graham on August 14 2017, 10:32 AM

If you haven't seen/read my primers on various technical analysis topics, they're linked at certain points in the text below, and will be helpful in making the most of this post. If you'd like to read them in advance, here they are: Basic...
MBS RECAP: CPI Threads Market-Movement Needle

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by Matthew Graham on August 11 2017, 5:59 PM

Bond markets ultimately rallied modestly following today's much-anticipated CPI data. This is a departure from recent norms as the last 3 reports have generated some of the biggest reactions in each of the past 3 months. Still, the result is understandable...
MBS Day Ahead: Yes, Inflation Data Matters Now

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by Matthew Graham on August 11 2017, 8:28 AM

After a longstanding reign as one of the most meaningful market movers, inflation data became an outcast for most of the recovery from the financial crisis. Old dog market watchers probably scoffed in 2011-2015 when I said that "no one cared"...
MBS RECAP: Risk-Off Rally, Just Another Day For Bonds

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by Matthew Graham on August 10 2017, 4:29 PM

It's hard to appreciate just how different the trading session was for stocks compared to bonds. To be sure, a near 5bp drop in 10yr yields is "nice," but it pales in comparison to the amount of movement suggest by or seen in equities markets...
MBS Day Ahead: Core Range Intact All Week

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by Matthew Graham on August 10 2017, 10:02 AM

In terms of 10yr yields, bond markets have been locked in the same narrow range for a week and half. Even when the range was only 2 days old last week, it seemed likely that it would come to a head by tomorrow's CPI data. With the boundaries still...
MBS RECAP: Rally and Resistance After Geopolitical Drama

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by Matthew Graham on August 09 2017, 6:10 PM

Bonds had already begun the process of rallying in response to geopolitical risk yesterday afternoon. Notably, the headlines hit after the 3pm CME close (which marks the end of the day for a decent chunk of bond market participation). As subsequent trading...

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Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 3.94%
|
15 Yr FRM 3.22%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.22%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 107-14 (-0-01)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 109-06 (-0-01)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 110-19 (0-02)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps -7.42%
|
Refinance Index -12.98%
|
Purchase Index -2.53%

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