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MBS RECAP: Another Hopeful Morning Dashed by Defensive Reality

MBS MID-DAY: Morning Gains Give Way to Mid-Day Rout (again)

The Week Ahead: No Scheduled Data Before Wednesday's Important...

MBS RECAP: Reminded of Volatility via Friday Cliff-Diving

MBS MID-DAY: Third Time is NOT the Charm for Bond Markets

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Housing Recovery and Price Appreciation to Continue; Mortgage Rates Near 12-mo Highs; MBA Suggests New Approach To Risk-Sharing

Published: 5/20/2013

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MBS RECAP: Another Hopeful Morning Dashed by Defensive Reality

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May 20 2013, 4:05 PM

In the interest of leaving nothing to the imagination and no doubts about reprices being guaranteed, they're pretty much guaranteed at this point. Some lenders might be coming around for a second pass. That's uncommonly awful at this time of day...
MBS MID-DAY: Morning Gains Give Way to Mid-Day Rout (again)

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by Matthew Graham on May 20 2013, 12:20 PM

MBS Live : MBS Morning Market Summary Please note the timestamp on the pricing snapshot below, and that it's about an hour and 15 minutes old. The snapshot will continue to be generated between 11:00-11:10am while the MID-DAY Commentary time may vary...
The Week Ahead: No Scheduled Data Before Wednesday's Important FOMC Minutes

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by Matthew Graham on May 20 2013, 7:53 AM

Whether or not it turns out to be justified, hype and anticipation have been building over this week's FOMC Minutes for over a week now. The hype concerns the notion that the Fed Minutes will show a Fed board that is somewhat closer to tapering QE3 than...
MBS RECAP: Reminded of Volatility via Friday Cliff-Diving

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May 17 2013, 4:09 PM

Fannie 3.0s hovering around 102-16, in line with yesterday's and today's lows. This after a bounce attempt from 12:30 to 1:30 that got us up to 102-22. The few traders who came back to the desk after lunch quickly corrected that little problem...
MBS MID-DAY: Third Time is NOT the Charm for Bond Markets

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by Matthew Graham on May 17 2013, 12:22 PM

MBS Live : MBS Morning Market Summary Here we are again... All but a few days this week have seen morning sell-offs that have required negative reprice alerts for MBS Live subscribers . As previously intimated, such alerts delay the publication of these...
The Day Ahead: Winding Down and Range Finding; 2 Cool Charts

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by Matthew Graham on May 17 2013, 7:53 AM

The bulk of the week's activity has passed, from a calendar standpoint, and this morning's Consumer Sentiment data is all that's left on the domestic agenda. Even in the overnight session, there are no interesting data sets, and really, no data period...
MBS RECAP: Purposeful Rally Helps Define Pre-FOMC Range

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May 16 2013, 4:09 PM

It's conceivable that a lender or two would be considering a negative reprice fairly shortly as Fannie 3.0s have fallen more than 4 ticks from the last reported reprices. Even then, the pace of the selling is relatively contained overall, and Fannie...
MBS MID-DAY: Bounce Back/Rally Gains Traction

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May 16 2013, 11:09 AM

- Business Conditions -5.2 vs +2.4 consensus, +1.3 previous - 6-month Outlook 32.3 vs 19.5 - New orders -7.9 vs -1.0 previously - Employment -8.7 vs -6.8 previously - Employment index lowest since Sept 2009 Manufacturing firms responding to the monthly...
The Day Ahead: Economic Data Deluge, Part 2; Chance to Confirm Bounce Part 1

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by Matthew Graham on May 16 2013, 8:01 AM

If the presence of greater amounts of economic data was a benefit for bond markets on Wednesday (and we're not sure that it was), then Thursday has even greater potential to confirm or reject that potential correlation. The benefit of Wednesday's economic...
MBS RECAP: Plenty of Volatility, But Yesterday's Lows Defended

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May 15 2013, 4:05 PM

Treasuries and MBS hit their weakest levels of the day at 12:50pm, bringing them close to 'unchanged' on the day. Sinc then, they've been heading back into positive territory with MBS currently trying to get over the 102-22 pivot point shared...
MBS MID-DAY: Another Mid-Morning Sell-Off

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by Matthew Graham on May 15 2013, 12:30 PM

MBS Live : MBS Morning Market Summary Once again, please note the timestamp in the pricing snapshot below, as it is about an hour and a half old now. This time gap will continue to be the case when negative reprice alerts are necessary in the 11am hour...
The Day Ahead: Economic Calendar Picks Up, Will Markets Cool Off?

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by Matthew Graham on May 15 2013, 7:09 AM

Wednesday brings enough data in the morning hours that it could help shape the trading day for bond markets. This wasn't the case on Tuesday where an innocuous Import/Export Prices report stood alone, leaving markets to the whim of tradeflows/technicals...
MBS RECAP: Falling Knife Landed, Got Kicked, Now Falling Again

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by Matthew Graham on May 14 2013, 8:09 PM

MBS Live : MBS Afternoon Market Summary On May 3rd, after NFP, we said: "historically, a move like today's that runs counter to more than a month of trending, has been more likely to mark the beginning of a move back to other side of whatever the recent...
MBS MID-DAY: Selling Trend Emerges After Opening Stronger

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by Matthew Graham on May 14 2013, 11:55 AM

MBS Live : MBS Morning Market Summary Please note the timestamp in the pricing snapshot below (11:09am EST). The mid-day post will always pull a snapshot of current prices between 11:00 and 11:10am, with the actual publication of the commentary following...
The Day Ahead: Past Few Sessions Offered Clues About Technical Levels

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by Matthew Graham on May 14 2013, 6:45 AM

Tuesday is the lightest day of the week in terms of scheduled data without only Import/Export prices in the 8:30am time slot. This report tends to not have an effect on bond market trading, and in fact, inflation reports have been a downright lousy indicator...

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