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MBS RECAP: Moderate Selling Followed by Heavy Selling and Tons...

MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Weaker After Economic Data Prompting...

MBS Day Ahead: Biggest Economic Data of the Week; Bond Markets...

MBS RECAP: Sharply Sideways Day for Bond Markets

MBS MID-DAY: Grinding Back Toward Unchanged Amid Lack of Inspiration...

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Purchases Continue Taking Market Share; FICOs Trending Lower; Rates Sharply Higher; Foreclosures with Positive Equity

Published: 4/17/2014

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MBS RECAP: Moderate Selling Followed by Heavy Selling and Tons of Reprices

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by Matthew Graham on April 17 2014, 3:02 PM

Bond markets had a bad day. The setup for this one started as early as Tuesday, when what looked like a shift toward weakness on Monday was instead greeted with a refreshing amount of resilience. Despite the fact that the resilience was based on geopolitical...
MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Weaker After Economic Data Prompting Negative Reprices for Mortgage Rates

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by Matthew Graham on April 17 2014, 11:34 AM

Given the recent adherence to a sideways range in bond markets combined with today's economic data coming in stronger than expected, it's not surprising to see yields moving from a lower rung on the range-bound ladder to the next rung higher....
MBS Day Ahead: Biggest Economic Data of the Week; Bond Markets Close at 2pm

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by Matthew Graham on April 17 2014, 7:51 AM

At the beginning of the week, we discussed the shared fate between stocks and bonds, noting that they'd been exceptionally well-connected of late and that both were approaching the later phases of a move lower (in price for stocks, and in yield for...
MBS RECAP: Sharply Sideways Day for Bond Markets

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by Matthew Graham on April 16 2014, 3:17 PM

As of the 3pm Treasury pit close (the unofficial end of the day for bond markets), little, if anything has changed from this morning. Despite having a wide variety of potential market movers in play, bond markets instead saw a session that would be hard...
MBS MID-DAY: Grinding Back Toward Unchanged Amid Lack of Inspiration

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by Matthew Graham on April 16 2014, 12:03 PM

Bond markets started the day in weaker territory after stronger economic data out of China and follow-through on yesterday's bounce (bonds had rallied on Ukraine headlines and bounced back toward weaker levels when the headlines dried up). This morning's...
MBS Day Ahead: Wide Variety of Potential Motivations and a Retracement Primer

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by Matthew Graham on April 16 2014, 9:23 AM

With the resurgence of geopolitical risk as a market mover yesterday (Ukraine headlines caused a big mid-day bond rally), there will be a wide variety of potential inspiration for the next move. On the list are: Economic Data Fed Speakers Fed Data (Beige...
MBS RECAP: Bond Markets Try to Hold Gains After Ukraine-Inspired Rally

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by Matthew Graham on April 15 2014, 3:44 PM

For all the possibilities, today ended up being both surprising and straightforward for bond markets. The surprise was that Ukraine headlines turned out to be the biggest market mover as they introduced a new level of physical violence and heightened...
MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets in Rally Mode After Visit From Old Friend

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by Matthew Graham on April 15 2014, 12:03 PM

Geopolitical risk is an old friend to bond markets. When prospects for awful things flare up at home and abroad, money tends to flow out of stocks and into bonds. That's been the case so far today as Treasury yields and stock prices have plunged in...
MBS Day Ahead: 2nd Chance to Fight Off Weakness; Economic Data Continues

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by Matthew Graham on April 15 2014, 7:56 AM

Financial securities have a tendency to alternate between periods of movement and consolidation. Obviously, if something isn't moving higher or lower, then it's sideways. What isn't always obvious (in many cases, not until hindsight comes...
MBS RECAP: Moderate but Persistent Weakness After Retail Sales

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by Matthew Graham on April 14 2014, 4:00 PM

Nothing has changed from the Mid-Day Commentary , as MBS continue bouncing along the same lows that offered support earlier this morning. Treasuries have also been contained by their weakest levels of the day. Neither has sold off in any extreme way-...
MBS MID-DAY: Technical Resistance and Stronger Data Hurting Bond Markets

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by Matthew Graham on April 14 2014, 11:45 AM

Coming into the week, there were some technical considerations regarding the recent losing streak in stocks and winning streak in bonds. These serve as a backdrop for this morning's economic data and resulting market movement. In short, both trends...
MBS Week Ahead: Economic Data in Focus on Holiday-Shortened Week

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by Matthew Graham on April 14 2014, 7:45 AM

Certainly the past 6 trading days (NFP Friday and every day thereafter) have been strong for bond markets and weak for stocks. The connection between the two has been fairly strong as well, in that stocks are rising and falling with bond yields throughout...
MBS RECAP: Steady At Slightly Stronger Levels All Day

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by Matthew Graham on April 11 2014, 3:22 PM

Even after moving across the 3pm close of Treasury Pit trading at the CME, bond markets have continued to hold inside the same narrow, sideways range that has contained all the day's trading. In the case of MBS, prices have been in the same range...
MBS MID-DAY: Quiet by Comparison; Off Highs, but Still Positive

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by Matthew Graham on April 11 2014, 11:56 AM

By this time yesterday, MBS had already moved up 3/8ths of a point from morning lows. Activity is muted by comparison today. Movement has been in the other direction, but although prices are an eighth of a point off their highs, they're still an eighth...
MBS Day Ahead: More Surprises in Store for Bond Markets?

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by Matthew Graham on April 11 2014, 7:42 AM

Yesterday's bond rally took markets by surprise. Granted, the proponents of the 'death cross' or those pointing to support from longer term moving averages may have felt the move was justified from a technical standpoint (meaning the the crayon...

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