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MBS RECAP: Fed Threads The Needle as it Preps Markets For Policy...

Differences Between Previous and Current FOMC Statements

MBS Day Ahead: 6 Years Later, Today's Fed Day Should Be a...

MBS RECAP: Not The Central Bank We Were Looking For (But We'll...

MBS Day Ahead: Unexpected Headlines Result in Bond Market "Lead...

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Moderating Home Prices Stoke 'Time to Sell' Sentiment

MLO Resources; Credit Product; Intro to the Prime Jumbo Securitization...

Mortgage Apps Give a Little Back From Last Week's Rally

Mortgage Rates Enjoy Surprise Drop Ahead of Fed Day

Construction Numbers Better Than Percentages Indicate

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Rates Mixed Despite Positive Reaction to Fed; More Owners Think It's Time to Sell

Published: 6/19/2019

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MBS RECAP: Fed Threads The Needle as it Preps Markets For Policy Shift

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by Matthew Graham on June 19 2019, 6:35 PM

As expected, today was all about the Fed-related events. Yields moved exactly as far we thought they might based on the Day Ahead , AND in a friendly direction! But if I had to guess where yields would end up based on the contents of the Fed communications...
Differences Between Previous and Current FOMC Statements

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by Matthew Graham on June 19 2019, 2:02 PM

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in MarchMay indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity roseis rising at a solidmoderate rate. Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and...
MBS Day Ahead: 6 Years Later, Today's Fed Day Should Be a Bit Different

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by Matthew Graham on June 19 2019, 9:35 AM

In the day just past, bonds surged to the best levels since 2017, with 10yr yields coming within 0.002% of the lowest yields since Nov 2016. The key market mover was a speech from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi in which he essentially promised...
MBS RECAP: Not The Central Bank We Were Looking For (But We'll Take It!)

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by Matthew Graham on June 18 2019, 5:34 PM

This week's big to-do had been and continues to be tomorrow's Fed announcement, press conference, and updated forecasts. The Fed's European counterpart threw a bit of a curve ball today as Mario Draghi unleashed a barrage of bond-friendly...
MBS Day Ahead: Unexpected Headlines Result in Bond Market "Lead-Off"

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by Matthew Graham on June 18 2019, 9:34 AM

In the day just past, bonds did absolutely nothing new or interesting. Yields continued to trade in a narrow, sideways range--one that has persisted for more than 2 weeks. The ostensible catalyst for a breakout was (and still IS, in some ways) tomorrow's...
MBS Day Ahead: Housing Data and The Fed

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by Matthew Graham on June 17 2019, 9:25 AM

In the week just past, the bond market began by threatening to bounce toward higher rates after an impressive, 5-week rally to the lowest levels since 2017. The first sign of support appeared without any provocation other than "relatively higher...
MBS RECAP: Modest Reactions to Econ Data as Bonds Wait For Bigger News

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by Matthew Graham on June 14 2019, 6:27 PM

Somehow, the bond market managed to end the week at 2.084% (10yr yield) which is exactly where it ended last week. In all my years of market-watching, I've never seen a sharp weekly (like the one we just had in late May) at the end of a sharp multi...
MBS Day Ahead: Retail Sales Takes a Swing Before Next Week's Fed

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by Matthew Graham on June 14 2019, 8:31 AM

In the day just past, bonds managed to add modestly but meaningfully to a 2.5-day rally that's acted to keep them in a consolidation pattern. After I write the words "consolidation pattern," they're typically followed by the words "ahead...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Look Determined to Consolidate

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by Matthew Graham on June 13 2019, 5:04 PM

Monday and Tuesday were a bit nerve-racking as it looked like yields might break back above the pre-Mexico-tariff-threat gap in the 10yr yield chart. But bonds bounced well before that happened and have been trending calmly lower ever since. In fact,...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Continue Fighting For Consolidation Ahead of Fed

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by Matthew Graham on June 13 2019, 9:23 AM

In the day just past, bonds built on the Tuesday's strength following a correction to the weakest levels in more than a week. 10yr yields briefly made it as low as 2.11% before consolidating in a fairly perfect triangle/pennant for the rest of the...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Shake Off Panic, Helped by Weak Data and Strong Auctions

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by Matthew Graham on June 12 2019, 4:28 PM

Yesterday morning saw bonds weaken enough to cause some small measure of panic among bond bulls. Said bulls had been nodding their heads all last week as they were finally seeing yields that made sense in the context of long-lasting trade wars, tepid...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Remain Open to Ideas as MBS Roll

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by Matthew Graham on June 12 2019, 9:20 AM

In the day just past, bonds initially gave the impression that they were continuing to correct toward higher yields after weekend news of a trade "deal" with Mexico. Markets weren't as interested in the "deal" part (because nothing...
MBS Day Ahead: Rates Increasingly Threatening Lift-Off

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by Matthew Graham on June 11 2019, 8:30 AM

In the day just past, bonds traded to their highest yields in more than a week--something that hasn't been too common in the past few months. In fact, yesterday was the most prominent example since mid-April. The culprit was a deescalation of trade...
MBS RECAP: Mexico Tariff De-escalation Hits Bonds

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by Matthew Graham on June 10 2019, 5:01 PM

Bad news for bonds today as Trump shelved the threat of tariffs on Mexico that helped fuel the sharpest leg of the recent rally 2 weeks ago. Perhaps more significant than this particular tariff news is the fact that Trump is showing markets he's willing...
MBS Week Ahead: When Will The Good Times Be Over?

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by Matthew Graham on June 10 2019, 8:58 AM

In the week just past, bonds moved aggressively sideways at long-term yield lows after coming out of the gate strong on Monday. There were several notable shifts in buying vs selling demand, but most of them were purely for technical reasons. It wasn't...

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MBS RECAP: Bonds Look Determined to Consolidate

Monday and Tuesday were a bit nerve-racking as it looked like yields might break back above the pre-Mexico-tariff-threat gap in the 10yr yield chart. But...
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Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 3.89%
|
15 Yr FRM 3.70%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.92%

MBS Prices:

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps -2.47%
|
Refinance Index -2.02%
|
Purchase Index -2.63%

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