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MBS Week Ahead: Bonds On The Run As Brexit Hopes Remain

MBS RECAP: Quiet Trading Week Leaves Focus on Brexit Weekend

MBS Day Ahead: Strange Combination of Pre-Brexit Paralysis and...

MBS RECAP: Even if Bonds Weren't Ignoring Data, They'd...

MBS Day Ahead: Lots of Data, But All Eyes on Brexit

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Here's Why Rates Were Flat This Week (And Why That Should...

FHA Tops the List for Non-Conventional Purchases

After Two Years, Residential Fixed Investment Returns to Positive...

MBA Predicts Economic and Rate Uncertainty Depressed New Home...

Broker, Fraud, Credit, and Hedging Products; Lenders Adjust to...

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FHA For Non-Conventional Purchases; Residential Investment Back in Black; Brexit Impact?

Published: 10/18/2019

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MBS Week Ahead: Bonds On The Run As Brexit Hopes Remain

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by Matthew Graham on October 21 2019, 9:09 AM

Last week saw the US bond market fight off an intermittent barrage of weakness as global markets geared up for the weekend's big Brexit vote. By Friday, 10yr yields were only 2bps higher on the week. This left them just inside the longer-term consolidation...
MBS RECAP: Quiet Trading Week Leaves Focus on Brexit Weekend

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by Matthew Graham on October 18 2019, 6:04 PM

Today was a throw-away day for the bond market. Yields matched their narrowest trading range of the week and ended the day at their most 'unchanged' levels of the week (i.e. closest to the previous day's close). In addition, Friday's close...
MBS Day Ahead: Strange Combination of Pre-Brexit Paralysis and Jumpiness

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by Matthew Graham on October 18 2019, 9:03 AM

Yesterday brought the highest yields in a month as Brexit-related optimism swelled early in the overnight session. At issue: British PM Johnson and EU negotiators reached "a deal." Great! Right? Brexit is solved? But wait... British parliament...
MBS RECAP: Even if Bonds Weren't Ignoring Data, They'd Still Be Confused

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by Matthew Graham on October 17 2019, 4:24 PM

The bond market has a lot on its mind right now. 2019 is proving to be very different from other episodes of big, protracted rate trends. In most past instances, we can point to 1 key theme driving the momentum, with a few occasional supporting actors...
MBS Day Ahead: Lots of Data, But All Eyes on Brexit

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by Matthew Graham on October 17 2019, 9:34 AM

Yesterday saw a swath of Brexit headlines spark unavoidable bond market weakness just as a weaker reading in the important Retail Sales report suggested a rally. Offsetting penalties, back to the line of scrimmage! Bonds ultimately ended green on the...
MBS RECAP: Why Didn't Bonds Seem to Care About Retail Sales?

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by Matthew Graham on October 16 2019, 6:31 PM

There was a bit of a giveaway in this morning's commentary, titled " Brexit Headlines vs Retail Sales ." Indeed, it's "Brexit headlines" that answer the question in the most recent headline. In other words, bond markets at...
MBS Day Ahead: Brexit Headlines vs Retail Sales

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by Matthew Graham on October 16 2019, 8:45 AM

Yesterday saw bonds undo a decent amount of overnight progress to end at the highest yields in nearly a month. 10yr Treasuries broke above the 1.75% level. If they close above 1.75% again today, it would add validity to the weaker trend of the past 2...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Built Up Only to Be Let Down

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by Matthew Graham on October 15 2019, 4:59 PM

There were two key parts to today's market movement. The first was the general push back against Friday's bond market weakness courtesy of less upbeat details emerging in the US/China trade talks. Long story short, China said it wants another...
MBS Day Ahead: Moving Averages Suck (And Other Thoughts to Kick Off The Week)

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by Matthew Graham on October 15 2019, 10:05 AM

Last week brought a bit of a bumpy ride for bond markets with trade-related news accounting for most of the drama. Things were more uneventful on the first 3 days of the week, but Thursday and Friday saw yields threaten to resume the sort of uptrend seen...
MBS RECAP: Traders Trading Trade (Deal)

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by Matthew Graham on October 11 2019, 6:11 PM

With the exception of the wee hours yesterday morning, the past 2 days have been all about the trade deal. Markets knew Trump and the Chinese vice premier would be meeting this afternoon and they increasingly believed some sort of trade announcement was...
MBS Day Ahead: Another Correction is Underway. How Long Will It Last?

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by Matthew Graham on October 11 2019, 9:00 AM

Yesterday brought an abrupt confirmation of a bounce in bonds. For 10yr Treasury yields, the scene of the bounce was 1.51% earlier in the week. Multiple attempts to move lower failed, but yields stayed close enough to try for 4 straight days. Things began...
MBS RECAP: Expected Amount of Volatility But Not For Expected Reasons

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by Matthew Graham on October 10 2019, 6:09 PM

Heading into this week, we looked to today as the biggest potential source of volatility owing to the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the end of the Treasury auction cycle. The volatility definitely showed up, but those two factors were...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds At Least Entertaining a Momentum Shift

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by Matthew Graham on October 10 2019, 9:15 AM

Yesterday brought moderate weakness for the bond market. Justifying it doesn't have to be any more complicated than technical resistance combined with an absence of buying demand ahead of the afternoon's 10yr Treasury auction. Yields rose enough...
MBS RECAP: MBS Make Up For Yesterday's Underperformance

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by Matthew Graham on October 09 2019, 5:36 PM

The same old pattern played out today where MBS weren't able to keep solid pace with Treasury movement. This is one of those "for better or worse" kind of things. MBS tend not to gain as much ground as Treasuries when bonds are rallying...
MBS Day Ahead: Fed Minutes Are Less Interesting After Yesterday's Powell Speech

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by Matthew Graham on October 09 2019, 9:28 AM

In the day just passed, bonds initially tried to erase the weakness seen in Monday's session. They were largely successful in the morning hours, but began to slide in the afternoon. Although trade-related headlines drew the biggest response in terms...

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MBS Day Ahead: Lots of Data, But All Eyes on Brexit...

Yesterday saw a swath of Brexit headlines spark unavoidable bond market weakness just as a weaker reading in the important Retail Sales report suggested...
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Yesterday saw bonds undo a decent amount of overnight progress to end at the highest yields in nearly a month. 10yr Treasuries broke above the 1.75% level...
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MBS RECAP: Bonds Built Up Only to Be Let Down

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Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 3.84%
|
15 Yr FRM 3.42%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.86%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 105-01 (-0-03)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 106-30 (-0-01)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 107-26 (-0-04)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps 0%
|
Refinance Index 0%
|
Purchase Index 0%

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