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MBS Day Ahead: Biggest Day of Data, But Still Not What Bonds...

MBS RECAP: Stocks and Bonds Confirm Hyperfocus on Covid Outlook

MBS Day Ahead: Stocks and Bonds Confirm Hyperfocus on Covid Outlook...

MBS RECAP: Bonds Surprisingly Resilient After Last Week's...

MBS Day Ahead: Bonds May Not Be Going Anywhere Too Soon or Quickly...

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New Home Sales Expected to Surge

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Mortgage Application Volume is Up, Forbearances Continue to Wane

Mortgage Rates Fight The Urge To Move Higher

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New Home Sales Expected to Surge; Mortgage Apps Increase; Rates Resilient

Published: 7/15/2020

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MBS Day Ahead: Biggest Day of Data, But Still Not What Bonds Are Waiting For

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by Matthew Graham on July 16 2020, 8:31 AM

It used to be that rate watchers and mortgage originators could simply tune in to the economic data on any given day and expect a fairly logical and commensurate result to follow in terms of bond market movement. Stronger jobs report? Rates move higher...
MBS RECAP: Stocks and Bonds Confirm Hyperfocus on Covid Outlook

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by Matthew Graham on July 15 2020, 3:27 PM

Stocks and Bonds Confirm Hyperfocus on Covid Outlook Coronavirus has been with us for so long and has caused such a huge paradigm shift that it's easy to lose sight of its importance as a day-to-day market mover. Periodically we see moves that reinforce...
MBS Day Ahead: Stocks and Bonds Confirm Hyperfocus on Covid Outlook

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by Matthew Graham on July 15 2020, 8:58 AM

Coronavirus has been with us for so long and has caused such a huge paradigm shift that it's easy to lose sight of its importance as a day-to-day market mover. Periodically we see moves that reinforce the importance ( like today ) where both stocks...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Surprisingly Resilient After Last Week's Scare

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by Matthew Graham on July 14 2020, 3:36 PM

Bonds Surprisingly Resilient After Last Week's Scare After last week's somewhat scary move higher in rates, the bond market has shown a decent amount of resilience so far this week as the jury remains out in the case of covid vs the economy. Econ...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds May Not Be Going Anywhere Too Soon or Quickly

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by Matthew Graham on July 14 2020, 8:49 AM

Once again, stocks and bonds were largely flat in the overnight session and domestic trading begins with both sides of the market close to yesterday's latest levels. For bonds, that means yields remain well-within the two ranges discussed in yesterday's...
MBS RECAP: Fundamental Hope But Technical Caution

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by Matthew Graham on July 13 2020, 3:38 PM

Fundamental Hope But Technical Caution Fundamentals and technicals represent the two main schools of thought when it comes to market analysis (read more on that here). Once school is suggesting a potential bounce higher for rates while the other remains...
MBS Week Ahead: For Bonds, Fundamental Hope, But Technical Caution

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by Matthew Graham on July 13 2020, 8:51 AM

Fundamentals and technicals represent the two main schools of thought when it comes to market analysis. Fundamental analysis focuses on all of things outside of the market that could/should have a bearing on the market (i.e. economic data, covid numbers...
MBS RECAP: Big Scary Reversal in Bonds (Spoiler Alert: It Wasn't That Scary)

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by Matthew Graham on July 10 2020, 4:28 PM

Big Scary Reversal in Bonds (Spoiler Alert: It Wasn't That Scary) Just as bonds were settling into a nice new trend toward lower yields, today comes along with the biggest intraday reversal in weeks. But even if the weakness was twice as big, bonds...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds' Already Hitting The Floor of The New Trend

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by Matthew Graham on July 10 2020, 9:04 AM

Trend channels in financial markets are some of the most basic forms of analysis. They consist of lines drawn along the highs and lows of a charted security. When parallel lines can be drawn that connect more than a few highs and lows, you have a trend...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Making a Case For a New Trend

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by Matthew Graham on July 09 2020, 4:03 PM

Bonds Making a Case For a New Trend We've talked a lot about the linear uptrend in bond yields that began in April. It was defeated by the end of June and bonds began drifting sideways. But now they may be making a case for a new trend toward lower...
MBS Day Ahead: Are Mortgage Rates Done Closing The Gap To MBS?

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by Matthew Graham on July 09 2020, 9:18 AM

We've talked a lot about the massive rift that opened up between mortgage rates and MBS yields as the pandemic hit markets several months ago. MBS yield isn't something we've historically focused on largely because it's not important to...
MBS RECAP: Closer Look at Stocks vs Rates

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by Matthew Graham on July 08 2020, 4:07 PM

Bonds Pull Back, But It's Still a Waiting Game Despite some modest weakness to begin the day, bonds remain smack dab in the center of their recent range. We've officially begun the waiting game. Econ Data / Events 11:30-11:50 AM (ET) - Fed 30yr...
MBS Day Ahead: It's Still a Waiting Game

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by Matthew Graham on July 08 2020, 8:49 AM

There really wasn't much by way of riveting new developments on the radar heading into this week. A smattering of Fed speakers and relatively inconsequential data in early July aren't up to the task of creating big-picture momentum in the age...
MBS RECAP: Record High MBS Prices, Record Low Rates. What Next?

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by Matthew Graham on July 07 2020, 4:28 PM

Record High MBS Prices, Record Low Rates. What Next? Bonds and rates clearly aren't looking at economic data as a key source of motivation, nor are they playing by the normal set of rules. Coronavirus has rewritten those rules. How long can this all...
MBS Day Ahead: Surprising Resilience in Bonds or Surprising Strength in Stocks?

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by Matthew Graham on July 07 2020, 8:52 AM

Conventional wisdom holds that stocks tend to do better when bonds do worse. The logic is simple. When investors feel more optimistic or more risk-tolerant, they're more likely to re-allocate some bond holdings into stocks. When they're fearful...

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MBS RECAP: Fundamental Hope But Technical Caution

Fundamental Hope But Technical Caution Fundamentals and technicals represent the two main schools of thought when it comes to market analysis (read more...
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Big Scary Reversal in Bonds (Spoiler Alert: It Wasn't That Scary) Just as bonds were settling into a nice new trend toward lower yields, today comes...
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Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 2.89%
|
15 Yr FRM 2.58%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.85%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 107-16 (0-02)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 109-10 (0-02)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 110-00 (-0-04)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps 5.10%
|
Refinance Index 11.87%
|
Purchase Index -6.09%

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