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MBS RECAP: We've Only Just Begun (to See ECB QE Volatility...

MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Continue Riding ECB Wave

MBS Day Ahead: Bond Markets Set up Technical Defenses After ECB...

MBS RECAP: Bond Markets Thread the QE Needle, but What's...

MBS MID-DAY: Moderate Losses, but Ample Volatility as Markets...

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Strengthening Economy Expected to "Drag" Housing Along

2015 Housing Opportunities might be Short-Lived

Existing Home Sales End Year on Higher Note

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Rates Back Near Long-Term Lows; Stronger Economy to Drag Housing Up in 2015, but Opportunities Could be Short-Lived; ECB QE Market Volatility

Published: 1/23/2015

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MBS RECAP: We've Only Just Begun (to See ECB QE Volatility)

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by Matthew Graham on January 23 2015, 5:14 PM

Some time between yesterday's European Central Bank (ECB) announcement and this morning's open, market participants decided to interpret the QE program as buying a fixed amount of bonds of Eurozone countries based on their weighting (aka "capital...
MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Continue Riding ECB Wave

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by Matthew Graham on January 23 2015, 12:56 PM

You may have the market aphorism that it's easier to ride waves than to swim against them. The post-ECB bond market wave is still in force today with all corners of the bond market gaining ground, but especially the longer end of the yield curve....
MBS Day Ahead: Bond Markets Set up Technical Defenses After ECB Whipsaw

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by Matthew Graham on January 23 2015, 7:34 AM

It would be nice if yesterday's European Central Bank announcement had come with an instruction manual that let markets know how to react and at what pace. I haven't seen the analytical community as confused and noncommittal in quite some time...
MBS RECAP: Bond Markets Thread the QE Needle, but What's Next?

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by Matthew Graham on January 22 2015, 5:29 PM

10yr yields rocketed from 1.94 to 1.81 after this morning's ECB QE announcement and then leveled off right in between (that's 1.875 for those of you playing along at home). Funny thing about 1.875 is that it is exactly where yields ended yesterday...
MBS MID-DAY: Moderate Losses, but Ample Volatility as Markets Digest ECB

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by Matthew Graham on January 22 2015, 1:24 PM

By the time this morning's ECB QE announcement hit, there was little doubt about it's existence. Bond markets spent the overnight session continuing yesterday's anticipatory sell-off. One of the key ingredients in that weakness was the fear...
MBS Day Ahead: Big Day No Matter What, Including Hilarious, Super-Important Lessons from the Recent Past

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by Matthew Graham on January 22 2015, 7:25 AM

Today is one of those special days for financial markets where we finally come to an event with so much hype that it's a big deal no matter how it goes down. For example, the most dramatic thing the ECB could do today would be to make no policy changes...
MBS RECAP: Frustrating Sell-Off for Bond Markets. Blame Canada?

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by Matthew Graham on January 21 2015, 5:23 PM

This may be the first time in the history of the MBS Commentary that Canada has made an appearance as a relevant market mover--let alone a headline appearance. It wasn't until I saw the chart below that I really believed what I was reading and seeing...
MBS MID-DAY: Snowball Selling After Busy Morning of Unexpected Headlines

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by Matthew Graham on January 21 2015, 1:33 PM

Unexpected headlines have given markets plenty to digest this morning. German bond markets began pushing yields higher right from the start of the overnight session. That was offset by strength in UK bond markets leading up to the domestic open. Then...
MBS Day Ahead: Would ECB QE be Good or Bad for Rates?

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by Matthew Graham on January 21 2015, 7:32 AM

This question has come up a lot recently, so let's discuss it. What follows will be my take on it, and I have no idea if it will be the right take. That's the nature of this topic though. There are too many moving parts and too many potentially...
MBS RECAP: Meager Gains Intact Following Afternoon Swoon

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by Matthew Graham on January 20 2015, 4:28 PM

Anxiety and anticipation are in full supply as markets approach Thursday's exceptionally important ECB news. Last Friday, this anxiety took the form of liquidation in bond markets. The near-term limits were seemingly found (right around 1.70% in terms...
MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Battle Back, but MBS Lag. Rate Sheets Lag More.

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by Matthew Graham on January 20 2015, 12:02 PM

For bond markets, today has largely been about holding ground and retrenching. The most relevant example came during the overnight session--just before the domestic open--when 10yr yields bounced convincingly off the 1.84 pivot point . Keep in mind that...
MBS Day Ahead: Slow Week For Domestic Data; Big Week For Europe

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by Matthew Graham on January 20 2015, 7:32 AM

After trading in a narrow channel for the first three quarters of 2014, bond markets became increasingly volatile. The first three weeks of 2015 have seen some of the biggest moves in the longer term trend. Apart from being a factor of traders repositioning...
MBS RECAP: Unraveling the Complex Mysteries Behind Today's Market Movement

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by Matthew Graham on January 16 2015, 5:06 PM

Bond markets sold off today because they rallied so hard earlier this week. That is all*. I mean, we could sit here and attempt to assign significance to every little market-moving possibility as if it mattered, but as far as today is concerned, that's...
MBS MID-DAY: Seemingly Wild Ride for Bond Markets all Part of ECB QE Courtship

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by Matthew Graham on January 16 2015, 1:06 PM

Global financial markets have been engaged to the idea of sovereign QE from the European Central Bank for nearly a year. After yesterday's Swiss surprise, they're just about married to it. What we've seen in markets during the first part of...
MBS Day Ahead: How Big a Deal is This Swiss Franc Business?

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by Matthew Graham on January 16 2015, 7:40 AM

This chart was scaled based on everything that came before yesterday in order to see how big yesterday was by comparison. The red line is the Swiss Franc vs US dollars. The takeaway here is that the move was big. You may ask yourself "why compare...

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Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 3.65%
|
15 Yr FRM 3.03%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.63%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 108-16 (0-04)
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30YR FNMA 5.0 110-14 (0-02)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 111-23 (-0-02)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps 4.93%
|
Refinance Index 0.90%
|
FHFA Home Price Index 0.67%

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