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MBS RECAP: Bond Prices Defy Gravity With Help From Oil/Stocks

MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Running Into Same Rate Floor Ahead of Fed...

MBS RECAP: Stock Sell-Off Makes Strong Case For Bond Consolidation

MBS Week Ahead: Fed Week Is Here. Let's Looks at Possibilities

MBS RECAP: Bonds Ignore Econ Data in Favor of Next Week's...

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Published: 12/18/2018

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MBS RECAP: Bond Prices Defy Gravity With Help From Oil/Stocks

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by Matthew Graham on December 18 2018, 4:59 PM

We're typically talking about "the bond market in terms of 10yr Treasury yields," but in terms of PRICES , there was certainly some gravity in play coming into today. This gravity lined up with the resistance level at 2.82% in yields. In...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Running Into Same Rate Floor Ahead of Fed

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by Matthew Graham on December 18 2018, 9:58 AM

Fed day tomorrow! We'll finally get to see what's what with respect to recent speculation and a factual shift in tone from several Fed members (including Powell). But we have a day and a half of trading to get through before that happens. As today's...
MBS RECAP: Stock Sell-Off Makes Strong Case For Bond Consolidation

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by Matthew Graham on December 17 2018, 5:46 PM

Just when you thought we might be done talking about "consolidations," there's that word again! I'd suggested on Friday that the modest bond market gains helped to confirm a consolidation as opposed to a correction, with the recent yield...
MBS Week Ahead: Fed Week Is Here. Let's Looks at Possibilities

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by Matthew Graham on December 17 2018, 9:37 AM

More than anything else over the past 3 weeks, a shift in tone among Fed speakers has been at the heart of the year's best bond market rally. Seemingly overnight, the average Fed member went from saying things like "3 more hikes in 2019"...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Ignore Econ Data in Favor of Next Week's Fed Events

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by Matthew Graham on December 14 2018, 5:44 PM

Bonds began the day in modestly stronger territory. While they spend a small amount of the day trading a small distance away from those opening levels, that time and distance was never big enough to cause any concern. In short, the "consolidation"...
MBS Day Ahead: This Would Show That Bonds Are Serious About Considering Even More Gains

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by Matthew Graham on December 14 2018, 9:24 AM

If you've truly come to an appreciation of the gravity of bonds' big picture headwinds over the past 2 years, then the past 5 weeks may feel like a stroke of luck so good that it has to change any day now. More than a few bond analysts were worried...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Continue Calming Before Next Storm

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by Matthew Graham on December 13 2018, 7:12 PM

Whether or not next week's Fed announcement proves to bring a winter storm for bond markets remains to be seen. That said, if anything is going to do the trick, that's the best chance we have. Between now and then, bonds aren't quite sure...
MBS Day Ahead: Clear Correction May Be Finding Clear Ceiling

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by Matthew Graham on December 13 2018, 9:26 AM

The first 3 days of this week have offered a clear correction/consolidation to the strong rally of the previous month. This had as much to do with timing and technicals as anything else. In other words, the rally brought yields so much lower, so quickly...
MBS RECAP: MBS Handily Outperform Treasuries as Consolidation Continues

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by Matthew Graham on December 12 2018, 7:02 PM

Today's trading session was far less eventful than anything else seen in the past few weeks, both in terms of movement and volume. Although Treasury yields were higher, most of the increase came in the overnight session, and additional volatility...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Have Lots on Their Mind, But Beware The Bounce

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by Matthew Graham on December 12 2018, 10:16 AM

As we begin the third day of moderate weakness in bond markets, it's safe to say that we're looking at the correction and/or consolidation that we expected to see as of the end of last week. Bonds wouldn't have needed any other reason apart...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Continue Circling Wagons (Nothing To Do With Shutdown News)

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by Matthew Graham on December 11 2018, 5:37 PM

Government shutdowns make good news. When risks of a shutdown flare up (especially with today's sort of political theater) it tends to dominate the news coverage. This creates the risk that shutdown news is perceived to impact bonds in a way that...
MBS Day Ahead: Bounce Risk Remains; Hoping For Pre-Fed Consolidation

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by Matthew Graham on December 11 2018, 9:19 AM

Consolidation ... That's that word we use to refer to sideways and frequently narrower trading ranges that follow a period of more directional movement (you can click on the word to go to a full definition). Consolidation is the best case scenario...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Hit Resistance Right in Line With Last Week's Floor

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by Matthew Graham on December 10 2018, 5:44 PM

Bonds struggled to find inspiration for the first few hours of the domestic session, but it was soon in ample supply thanks to Brexit-related headlines ( like this one ). The result was a broad-based risk-off move that saw bonds move back to their strongest...
MBS Day Ahead: How We Guard Our Newfound Gains

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by Matthew Graham on December 10 2018, 8:01 AM

We've had an impressive winning streak recently and have acquired gains worthy of a watchful, protective eye. Will this be a durable rally or a fleeting victory? That question can't be answered without seeing how economic data and events unfold...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Think it Over After NFP, Then Finally Decide to Rally

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by Matthew Graham on December 07 2018, 4:23 PM

This morning's trading--both before and after NFP came out--basically acted as additional time for debate . Both MBS and Treasuries bounced quickly, but symmetrically around yesterday's closing levels before finally choosing a direction. Actually...

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Mortgage Rates:

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Mortgage Apps 0.03%
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Refinance Index -0.10%
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