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MBS Day Ahead: Should The Last Trend Get a Do-Over?

MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Fight Back, But This is Still 'Bearish...

MBS RECAP: Range-Bound Volatility as Bonds Respond to Corporate...

MBS Week Ahead: Bonds Staging at 2019's Most Important Crossroads

MBS Day Ahead: Lowered Expectations

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Underwriting, Broker, ECOA, Free LPMI Products; Fire AND Flood...

Access to Conventional/Jumbo Credit Increased in October

Consumers Shaky Again on Whether it's a Good Time to Buy

Mortgage Applications Hit Recent Highs

Mortgage Rates Avoid More Pain, Even if Only For Today

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Mortgage Applications Hit Recent Highs; Much-Needed Recovery For Rates

Published: 11/13/2019

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MBS Day Ahead: Should The Last Trend Get a Do-Over?

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by Matthew Graham on November 14 2019, 9:32 AM

Bonds gave us quite a scare last week as key technical ceilings gave way. High volume and concrete fundamental justification added validity to the move. Combine that with the massive size and old age of the 2019 rally and there was more than just a small...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Fight Back, But This is Still 'Bearish Limbo'

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by Matthew Graham on November 13 2019, 10:03 AM

The most defining moment of the big 2019 bond rally was undoubtedly the August 1st tariff announcement and the resulting massive reaction in both yields and volumes. The 2 weeks that followed represented the market's attempt to price in a scenario...
MBS RECAP: Range-Bound Volatility as Bonds Respond to Corporate Issuance

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by Matthew Graham on November 12 2019, 5:01 PM

There are all kinds of bonds out there. We follow the 10yr Treasury even though this is a mortgage-specific site for reasons outlined here . Beyond Treasuries and MBS, there is also a fairly substantial market for corporate bonds. That market is made...
MBS Week Ahead: Bonds Staging at 2019's Most Important Crossroads

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by Matthew Graham on November 12 2019, 9:44 AM

1.90% has been the most important, most dangerous ceiling for 10yr Treasury yields ever since a nasty selling spree stalled out there exactly 2 months ago. We'd been able to avoid an outright confrontation until last week's trade deal optimism...
MBS Day Ahead: Lowered Expectations

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by Matthew Graham on November 08 2019, 9:12 AM

If you don't expect anything good to happen for the bond market for the next few months, I guarantee you won't be disappointed. If, however, you expect to see a normal amount of resilience and a continued willingness on the part of rates to operate...
MBS RECAP: Big Bad Day; Yes, Trade Headlines Still Matter

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by Matthew Graham on November 07 2019, 6:21 PM

It was a big, bad day for the bond market, although the size of the thing ended up getting pared down just a bit in the afternoon. Chalk that up to a counterpoint headline that pushed back against the narrative created by the day's previous headlines...
MBS Day Ahead: Rising Rate Risks Are Officially Getting Serious

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by Matthew Graham on November 07 2019, 10:37 AM

Yesterday brought a brief reprieve for bonds after the first 2 days of the week threatened to confirm a big picture shift toward higher rates (or at least to build a case for such things). But much like the brief rally in the middle of last week, yesterday's...
MBS RECAP: Bond Buyers Making a Case or Just a Fluke?

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by Matthew Graham on November 06 2019, 5:31 PM

Today's 10yr Treasury auction brought strong demand . Across the board, the auction stats were much stronger than expected. The only real problem was that the awarded yield was the highest of any 10yr auction since July, and that goes a long way toward...
MBS Day Ahead: Yesterday's Weakness Expands the Range

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by Matthew Graham on November 06 2019, 9:46 AM

Yesterday was a big, bad day for the bond market with the hotly-anticipated ISM Non-Manufacturing data coming in much stronger than expected. Bonds confirmed their focus on the econ data with heavy volume and heavy selling. Yields ultimately hit the highest...
MBS RECAP: Bigger-Picture Concerns Back to Forefront After ISM

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by Matthew Graham on November 05 2019, 6:29 PM

Heading into last week's Fed announcement and economic data, the analysis was starting to get a bit gloomy. It wasn't the first time I talked about the size and scope of 2019's rally increasingly suggesting its demise, but like the rate spike...
MBS Day Ahead: Rocky Start For Bonds Ahead of ISM Data

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by Matthew Graham on November 05 2019, 8:52 AM

Bonds had a reasonably rough day yesterday, but most of the weakness was reserved for Treasuries. MBS managed to escape with minimal damage. There were no standout market movers although cases could be made for trade deal optimism and supply concerns...
MBS RECAP: MBS Significantly Outperform as Treasuries Tank

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by Matthew Graham on November 04 2019, 7:09 PM

Treasuries tanked today and there were none of the sort of obvious catalysts you'd hope to see. I checked my math on that with people smarter than me and the conclusion was the same. Granted, we can all point to things that probably aren't helping...
MBS Week Ahead: New Trend, New Hope, and a New Warning

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by Matthew Graham on November 04 2019, 10:23 AM

For some reason, I feel like the 2nd half of 2019 has been one of the most legitimately uncertain eras of bond trading in the post-crisis market environment. That would make sense given the unprecedented combination of all-time high stocks, long-term...
MBS RECAP: Jobs Report and ISM Data Push Back, But Not Too Much

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by Matthew Graham on November 01 2019, 5:24 PM

Bonds were stronger overnight, riding a wave of buying demand on the heels of yesterday's weak econ data and US/China trade deal uncertainty. Some market participants were said to be looking for a looking for an NFP number that was even lower than...
MBS Day Ahead: NFP vs ISM

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by Matthew Graham on November 01 2019, 9:41 AM

Bonds rallied big yesterday on a combination of factors. These included a rejection of the Trump administration's claimed timeline for the US/China trade deal with sources citing Chinese officials and a super weak reading on Chicago PMI. The gains...

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Access to Conventional/Jumbo Credit Increased in October

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Mortgage Applications Hit Recent Highs

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MBS RECAP: Range-Bound Volatility as Bonds Respond...

There are all kinds of bonds out there. We follow the 10yr Treasury even though this is a mortgage-specific site for reasons outlined here . Beyond Treasuries...
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MBS Week Ahead: Bonds Staging at 2019's Most Important...

1.90% has been the most important, most dangerous ceiling for 10yr Treasury yields ever since a nasty selling spree stalled out there exactly 2 months...
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MBS Day Ahead: Lowered Expectations

If you don't expect anything good to happen for the bond market for the next few months, I guarantee you won't be disappointed. If, however, you...
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MBS RECAP: Big Bad Day; Yes, Trade Headlines Still...

It was a big, bad day for the bond market, although the size of the thing ended up getting pared down just a bit in the afternoon. Chalk that up to a counterpoint...
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Mortgage Rates Blasted by Trade Deal Progress

Mortgage rates surged higher at a rapid pace for the second time this week. Taken together, the jump is the biggest of its kind since the big rate spike...
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Affordability Improves Even as Appreciation Accelerates

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MBS Day Ahead: Rising Rate Risks Are Officially Getting...

Yesterday brought a brief reprieve for bonds after the first 2 days of the week threatened to confirm a big picture shift toward higher rates (or at least...
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MBS RECAP: Bond Buyers Making a Case or Just a Fluke...

Today's 10yr Treasury auction brought strong demand . Across the board, the auction stats were much stronger than expected. The only real problem was...

Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 3.82%
|
15 Yr FRM 3.50%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.92%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 105-05 (0-03)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 106-29 (0-01)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 107-26 (0-00)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps 0.64%
|
Refinance Index -0.52%
|
Purchase Index 2.28%

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