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MBS RECAP: Bonds Mostly Ignore Retails Sales Data

MBS Week Ahead: Did Bonds Get a Pass From Stocks Last Week?

MBS RECAP: Uneventful Conclusion to a Crazy Week

MBS Day Ahead: Another Day of Stock Watching; Don't Expect...

MBS RECAP: Once More With (Slightly Less) Feeling

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Mortgage Rates Stay Steady, Waiting For a Sign

Freddie Mac Announces More "Big Data" Tools

Digital Products, New Book for LO's; Big Bank Mortgage Earnings

Mortgage Rates Hold Steady as Stocks Stabilize

"Debt-to-Income" Now Biggest Player in Mortgage Denials

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Freddie Announces More "Big Data" Tools; Rates Waiting For a Sign; New MBA Pres Comes Out Swinging

Published: 10/15/2018

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MBS RECAP: Bonds Mostly Ignore Retails Sales Data

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by Matthew Graham on October 15 2018, 5:32 PM

This morning's Retail Sales report was arguably the biggest-ticket of the week in terms of economic data. It speaks to the ongoing level of uncertainty that we saw almost no reaction despite a headline of +0.1 vs median forecast of +0.6, at least...
MBS Week Ahead: Did Bonds Get a Pass From Stocks Last Week?

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by Matthew Graham on October 15 2018, 9:04 AM

Before last week's stock rout, bonds were stuck in a rut. For four straight sessions, they hit the highest intraday yields since 2011. Even after the 3rd biggest stock sell-off since the financial crisis, Treasuries were reluctant to rally in any...
MBS RECAP: Uneventful Conclusion to a Crazy Week

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by Matthew Graham on October 12 2018, 7:07 PM

Referring to the week of bond trading as " crazy " is a bit of a stretch. If we bring stocks into the mix, or if we go back to last Wednesday, it's been a crazy 7 business days (bonds were closed on Monday). As you're well aware, stocks...
MBS Day Ahead: Another Day of Stock Watching; Don't Expect Miracles

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by Matthew Graham on October 12 2018, 9:59 AM

Is there potential for today to turn into a "black Friday" with catastrophic stock losses that usher in the most amazing bond rally we've seen in years? Sure... that could happen any time, really, depending on the underlying events driving...
MBS RECAP: Once More With (Slightly Less) Feeling

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by Matthew Graham on October 11 2018, 6:16 PM

Bonds rallied today, eventually. Most of the session was fairly flat with the afternoon bringing most of the rally thanks to another sell-off in stocks. This time, the stock losses were more measured, but only relative to days like yesterday. On a normal...
MBS Day Ahead: Here's What a Bond Rally Costs in Terms of Stock Selling

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by Matthew Graham on October 11 2018, 9:25 AM

Anything more than 20 points is a big day of selling in terms of the S&P, but that's a small enough number to be relatively common, periodically. From there, a sell-off of more than roughly 33 points becomes much less common. By the time we're...
MBS RECAP: 4 Days After Bonds Went Crazy, Stocks Took a Turn

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by Matthew Graham on October 10 2018, 6:35 PM

Remember last Wednesday? Rather forget it? Yeah, me too. That was the day that bond yields spiked last week. The size and speed of the move was out of line with any of the common explanations. These things happen, of course, and when they do, it's...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Still Focused on Defense, But Hoping Offense Figures it Out

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by Matthew Graham on October 10 2018, 9:36 AM

One of the most important themes I've tried to communicate over the past 2 weeks is that the bond market is in the middle of redefining or repricing its relationship with the available data. There was a chance that 10yr yields would try to avoid a...
MBS RECAP: Token Correction Ahead of More Important Data

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by Matthew Graham on October 09 2018, 5:12 PM

Today was a freebie for bond markets (and stocks to some extent). In the grand scheme of things, no one will look back at today and conclude anything meaningful. If anything, it will just look like a very calm, very flat trading day following a 3-day...
MBS Day Ahead: Where We Were, Where We Are, And Where We Might Be Going

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by Matthew Graham on October 09 2018, 9:06 AM

2009-2013 was an unprecedented time for the US bond market. It benefited not only from the initial blast of the Great Recession and the sluggish recovery that followed, but also from the ongoing blast of Fed bond buying and ultra-low rate policy During...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Keep Tanking, Despite NFP Miss

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by Matthew Graham on October 05 2018, 8:48 PM

The jobs report may have missed the mark in terms of payrolls, but average hourly earnings put in its 4th straight month holding 2.8% (y/y) or higher. Before these past 4 months, 2.8% was a unicorn we saw on only a few brief occasions before it ran back...
MBS Day Ahead: The Readiness is All

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by Matthew Graham on October 05 2018, 8:30 AM

At this point, there's nothing left to be said or done in preparation for today's NFP data. Bonds stand on the edge of the most recent abyss. This time it's 3.20-3.24%-ish. The specific level really doesn't matter (sorry Gundlach). It's...
MBS RECAP: It Can Always Go Either Way

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by Matthew Graham on October 04 2018, 4:48 PM

If you're looking for today's recap, check out the Huddle . Or just know that we sold-off a bit more and then settled sideways, fairly close to yesterday's highest rates. Mortgage lenders dinged rate sheets just a bit more and we're now...
MBS Day Ahead: Selling Obviously Overdone, And That's a Problem

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by Matthew Graham on October 04 2018, 9:30 AM

If you didn't catch it, and want to get caught up with yesterday's big move, this tweet has several links that should bring you thoroughly up to speed: https://twitter.com/MG_MBS/status/1047627670987526145 Moving on to today, I have a saying that...
MBS RECAP: Worst Day For Bonds in Nearly 2 Years

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by Matthew Graham on October 03 2018, 6:20 PM

In terms of outright movement toward higher rates, you'd have to go back to the days following the election in November 2016 to find anything worse than today. It was like a handful of other snowball selling sprees seen over the years in that it seemed...

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Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 4.95%
|
15 Yr FRM 4.43%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.40%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 102-15 (-0-01)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 104-16 (0-02)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 106-00 (0-00)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps 0.03%
|
Refinance Index -0.10%
|
Purchase Index 0.12%

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