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MBS RECAP: Friendly Confluence of Events Helps Bond Markets Repair...

MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Just Hoping for an Orderly Escape; Bigger...

MBS RECAP: Indecisive, Sideways Trading After Fed Day

MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Set to Battle Potentially Important Level...

MBS RECAP: What Fed Day? This One Was a Dud

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MBS RECAP: Friendly Confluence of Events Helps Bond Markets Repair Some Damage

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by Matthew Graham on September 20 2019, 6:15 PM

Last week brought the pain. It was the worst single week for the bond market (if we count MBS) since 2013. Although this week won't break any records, it was a refreshing change of pace, with almost every day seeing decent improvement. Today's...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Just Hoping for an Orderly Escape; Bigger Decisions on Hold

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by Matthew Graham on September 20 2019, 10:14 AM

In the day just passed, bonds trading was exceptionally calm in the wake of Wednesday's Fed day. As I mentioned in the recap , it was one of the least volatile moves relative to expectations of any Fed day reaction I can remember. The consolidative...
MBS RECAP: Indecisive, Sideways Trading After Fed Day

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by Matthew Graham on September 19 2019, 5:45 PM

Relative to the expectation for yesterday's Fed events to cause volatility, the movement we've seen in the bond market has been fairly pitiful in response. Seriously folks... I can't think of a bigger gap between they hype and the outcome...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Set to Battle Potentially Important Level

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by Matthew Graham on September 19 2019, 9:16 AM

In the day just passed, the bond market finally got a chance to sink its teeth into the much-anticipated Fed announcement/forecasts/press conference. Traders were hoping to get a read on whether the Fed rate cut cycle is being treated like a fine-tuning...
MBS RECAP: What Fed Day? This One Was a Dud

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by Matthew Graham on September 18 2019, 5:49 PM

As far as Fed days go--especially the kind where we get updated economic projections--today's example was pretty damn uneventful. These things happen from time to time, but this wasn't exactly a day where a "dud" announcement was seen...
Differences Between Previous and Current FOMC Statements

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by Matthew Graham on September 18 2019, 2:02 PM

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in JuneJuly indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the...
MBS Day Ahead: Today's Fed Announcement is More Complicated Than Normal

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by Matthew Graham on September 18 2019, 9:09 AM

In the day just passed, the bond market managed to add a 2nd day to a friendly correction--a small counterattack against the much larger corrective sell-off that dominated last week's trading (and yes... that weakness was, itself, a counterattack...
MBS RECAP: Fine-Tuning Correction Ahead of Fine-Tuning Rate Cut

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by Matthew Graham on September 17 2019, 6:24 PM

Today saw the narrowest trading range of any day so far this month and by far the calmest day since the big September selling spree began. Drama came in the form of an uncommon and esoteric development in short-term funding markets, which essentially...
MBS Day Ahead: Correction to The Correction. Does it Matter?

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by Matthew Graham on September 17 2019, 9:27 AM

In the day just passed, bonds saw their first reprieve from the fairly brutal correction that has defined essentially all of September. 10yr yields dropped all the way to 1.81 after having broken above 1.90 in the previous session, but they weren't...
MBS RECAP: Does Oil Matter to Rates?

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by Matthew Graham on September 16 2019, 5:26 PM

Today's key development was over-the-weekend news of drone strikes on Saudi oil assets. Iran is getting the blame, but Trump says he's not in a rush to respond and that he wouldn't like to go to war with anybody. Oil prices logically surged...
MBS Day Ahead: It's Still a Correction Unless The Fed Says Otherwise

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by Matthew Graham on September 16 2019, 9:55 AM

In the week just passed, the bond market sold off at the fastest pace since the June 2013 taper tantrum. That's a relatively impressive feat at first glance considering the taper tantrum provided a massively obvious, once in-a-lifetime selling cue...
MBS Day Ahead: As 1.80% Gives Way in 10yr Yields, What Would Be Next?

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by Matthew Graham on September 13 2019, 8:36 AM

In the day just passed, bonds got our hopes up early with an initially positive reaction to the ECB announcement. We were even in the green for most of Draghi's press conference, but heading into 9:30am, the tone began to change. Ultimately, 10yr...
MBS RECAP: Game Over? Maybe, Maybe Not...

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by Matthew Graham on September 12 2019, 6:18 PM

10yr yields hit 1.80% today. Using the power of the MBS Live search feature, I compiled the following list to put 1.80% in context: "I'd be looking at 1.80% in 10yr yields as the first threshold of concern. We could weaken as much as we want...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Get First Opportunity to Reverse Curse After ECB

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by Matthew Graham on September 12 2019, 9:25 AM

In the day just passed, the recent bond market selling-spree showed its first serious signs of leveling off since it began one week ago. This wasn't as triumphant is it sounds, however. Treasuries were unwilling to follow European bond yields lower...
MBS RECAP: Bond Correction Takes The Day Off

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by Matthew Graham on September 11 2019, 5:30 PM

Bond traders took a break from their newfound hobby of the past 5 business days: relentlessly selling bonds . Maybe they want to branch out and try new things. Maybe they were just a little tired of all the selling. Or maybe they had hit their pre-ECB...

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Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 3.79%
|
15 Yr FRM 3.45%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.81%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 105-07 (0-04)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 107-00 (0-03)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 108-08 (0-00)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps 0%
|
Refinance Index 0%
|
Purchase Index 0%

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