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MBS RECAP: Bond Markets Brace For Impact, But Able to Blast Off...

MBS MID-DAY: After Morning Indecision, Bond Markets Surge

MBS Day Ahead: Near-Term Bond Market Fate to be Decided by Jobs...

MBS RECAP: Massive Sell-Off in Stocks but no Rally in Bonds

MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Bounce Back After Anxiety-Ridden Start...

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Housing Market Implications of Adult Children Living With Parents...

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Mortgage Rates Recover After Jobs Data; Construction Spending Down, but Improves Year-Over-Year; Housing Implications of Adult Children Living With Parents

Published: 8/1/2014

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MBS RECAP: Bond Markets Brace For Impact, But Able to Blast Off Instead

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by Matthew Graham on August 01 2014, 4:23 PM

Fannie 3.5 MBS are heading out the door nearly half a point better at 102-09. 10yr yields are down 6bps at 2.498. While they didn't quite make it to the 2.47 technical level, the move from 2.57 yesterday to 2.48 at today's lows is close enough...
MBS MID-DAY: After Morning Indecision, Bond Markets Surge

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by Matthew Graham on August 01 2014, 12:21 PM

MBS and Treasuries started the day in slightly weaker territory after a fairly uneventful overnight session. On NFP day, all eyes are on 8:30am anyway. Payrolls printed moderately weaker than expected (209k vs 233), but with some strength in the internals...
MBS Day Ahead: Near-Term Bond Market Fate to be Decided by Jobs Report

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by Matthew Graham on August 01 2014, 7:31 AM

First off, anything can happen on NFP days, so feel free to skip the rest of this and buckle up for the ride if you're reading this before 8:30am ET. For those interested in some context for today's possibilities, here you go. It used to be a...
MBS RECAP: Massive Sell-Off in Stocks but no Rally in Bonds

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by Matthew Graham on July 31 2014, 5:05 PM

It's not often you'll see the S&P down over 30 points with less than 1bp of day-over-day movement in 10yr yields, but that's where we're heading out today. Things might have been worse for Treasuries, however, had it not been for the...
MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Bounce Back After Anxiety-Ridden Start

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by Matthew Graham on July 31 2014, 12:34 PM

The stakes are high for the rest of this week as far as bond markets are concerned. The anxiety is obvious. Is this the turning point where we bounce off periodic lows and head higher? Even if we're only concerned about the next few weeks, that's...
MBS Day Ahead: What Yesterday's GDP Shocker Means for Rates

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by Matthew Graham on July 31 2014, 7:39 AM

With GDP living up to it's surprising potential, things have quickly gotten more serious for domestic bond markets. Before yesterday, econo-bears could hold out some hope that Q2 GDP might have reiterated the gloominess of Q1 GDP in some way. They...
MBS RECAP: FOMC Announcement Wholly Overshadowed by GDP

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by Matthew Graham on July 30 2014, 6:18 PM

Tonight's theme: "not many." It's not many times that GDP will crack 4% after being down more than 2% in the previous quarter, but it did today. But that's because it's not many times that the US economy will grow at 3.5% in...
Differences Between Past and Current FOMC Statements

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by Matthew Graham on July 30 2014, 1:59 PM

Release Date: June 18, July 30, 2014 For immediate release Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April June indicates that growth in economic activity has rebounded in recent months. the second quarter. Labor market indicators...
MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Pummeled by GDP; Bracing for Aftershock from FOMC

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by Matthew Graham on July 30 2014, 12:46 PM

Bond markets began the day on relatively level ground vs yesterday. It was, and has been up to GDP to cast the first major vote on whether or not bond markets move on to new highs for 2014 (or lows in terms of yield), or if they would be turned back toward...
MBS Day Ahead: Big Potential for Bond Markets, for Better or Worse

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by Matthew Graham on July 30 2014, 7:33 AM

On the afternoon of the Thursday before last, bond markets had just gone on their run to the best levels in over a month on the geopolitical flare-up (that was the day that begin with the Malaysian Airliner and ended with Israel announcing a ground assault...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Bounce Back From Mid-Day Swoon

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by Matthew Graham on July 29 2014, 5:00 PM

Markets were more active today, offering a nice little warm up for what promises to be an even more active day tomorrow. The movement came in waves, beginning with a strong bond market rally at the start of the European trading session. US Treasuries...
MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Back Near Unchanged Levels after Stronger Start

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by Matthew Graham on July 29 2014, 12:39 PM

The day started out well for Treasuries and MBS for a variety of reasons. European bond markets have been the most reliable motivation for overnight movement in Treasuries and last night was no exception. This time around German Bund yields (a good benchmark...
MBS Day Ahead: Last Day of Tame Data Before Things Get Serious

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by Matthew Graham on July 29 2014, 7:42 AM

Yesterday proved to be anything but serious based on the narrow trading range. 10yr yields only used up half of the range they'd carved out on Friday and MBS, even less than that. With none of the week's big-ticket market movers hitting until...
MBS RECAP: Some Weakness and a Few Reprices, but Mostly Holding Ground

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by Matthew Graham on July 28 2014, 5:11 PM

More due to timing and coincidence than anything, we got a few negative reprices this afternoon. Shortly thereafter, prices moved right back mid-point of today's trading range and never left . That said, things were a bit weaker in Treasuries. A small...
MBS MID-DAY: Hold Ground, Moderately Weaker, but Outperforming Treasuries

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by Matthew Graham on July 28 2014, 12:56 PM

Very little happened in the overnight session and very little has changed into the domestic trading hours. Bond markets were a bit weaker overnight and have found little reason to do much else so far today. The only significant data today was the Pending...

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