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MBS RECAP: Bonds Surge to Weakest Levels since 2014

MBS Day Ahead: If Rates Keep Moving Higher, It Could Still Be...

MBS RECAP: Bonds Add Exclamation Point to Yesterday's Breakout

MBS Day Ahead: What Stock Lever? Bonds Tanking Without Any Help...

MBS RECAP: More Warning Shots From Bonds

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Wells Fargo to Face Largest Fine Yet

MBA's Compliance Accreditation; Freddie and Fannie Changes...

Mortgage Rates Jump to Highest Levels in About a Month

Weather Cools Remodeling Perceptions

Rates on Closed Loans at 4 Year High

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Published: 4/20/2018

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MBS RECAP: Bonds Surge to Weakest Levels since 2014

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by Matthew Graham on April 20 2018, 5:14 PM

10yr yields hit the highest levels in more than 4 years this afternoon as bigger-picture selling pressure looks to be taking the reigns back from the Springtime consolidation that helped rates hold steady-to-slightly lower in March. There are no big,...
MBS Day Ahead: If Rates Keep Moving Higher, It Could Still Be a Head Fake

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by Matthew Graham on April 20 2018, 9:20 AM

Rates are in the midst of a serious, threatening move higher. Yesterday brought additional confirmation of the end of the friendly Springtime consolidation trend and it took us one step closer to the highest yields in more than 4 years. The specific reasons...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Add Exclamation Point to Yesterday's Breakout

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by Matthew Graham on April 19 2018, 5:03 PM

The break outside what we'll call the "Springtime Consolidation" for bonds started taking shape as early as last week. On Thursday and Friday, yields hugged the upper boundaries of that trend, simultaneously shying away from the sort of...
MBS Day Ahead: What Stock Lever? Bonds Tanking Without Any Help

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by Matthew Graham on April 19 2018, 9:51 AM

We've been increasingly wary about a potential break of the recent consolidation/rally trend --the one that saw yields move sideways to slightly stronger from late Feb through early April. Yields tiptoed to the top of that range as of Tuesday and...
MBS RECAP: More Warning Shots From Bonds

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by Matthew Graham on April 18 2018, 4:49 PM

Today was a more serious version of the same sort of warning shots seen at the end of last week. At that time, bond yields rose to challenge an intermediate ceiling at 2.835%, but didn't go out of their way to break it. This week began with higher...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds At Mercy of Earnings Ramp-Up, But Curve Could Help

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by Matthew Graham on April 18 2018, 9:31 AM

The term "earnings season" gets thrown around quite a bit in financial news, but what is it, exactly? Simply put, it's a period of several weeks each quarter where a majority of companies release their earnings reports. This is always of...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Hold Ground Despite Stronger Data/Stocks

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by Matthew Graham on April 17 2018, 4:47 PM

With elevated stock/bond correlation of late, it's always worth noting when things move in the opposite direction. Today was such a day, with stocks making solid gains while bonds managed to hold their ground near unchanged levels. Corporate bond...
MBS Day Ahead: Technically Under Attack, But is There Hidden Hope?

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by Matthew Graham on April 17 2018, 10:16 AM

Much of the analysis of the past few days has focused on the downwardly sloped trend channel seen in today's first chart. This can be thought of as the "correction trend" that helped bonds settle down after a glut of selling pressure to...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Claw Back to 'Unchanged' After Weaker Start

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by Matthew Graham on April 16 2018, 5:20 PM

Bonds were quite a bit weaker in the overnight session. According to the average media report, this was in response to Syria-related developments. The "logic" was that because the US had launched missiles into Syria WITHOUT sparking military...
MBS Week Ahead: Range Breakout In The Spotlight; Red Herrings

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by Matthew Graham on April 16 2018, 10:10 AM

Another week, another change to savor the scent of red herring in the air. Have you ever smelled a herring--let alone a red one? They're oily little bait-fish (like a bigger anchovy) and once out of the ocean (or the bait freezer at your local tackle...
MBS RECAP: Technically Stronger, But...

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by Matthew Graham on April 13 2018, 8:33 PM

Bonds were technically stronger today. There is green on the screen right now for everything but 2yr Treasuries. It's not huge, but at least it's in the right direction. 10's ended the day down nearly 2bps and Fannie 3.5 MBS were up an eighth...
MBS Day Ahead: Feeling Out The End Of 2018's First Correction

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by Matthew Graham on April 13 2018, 9:56 AM

I started using some more serious words to talk about bond market weakness yesterday, but I'll make them simple and keep the assessment short this morning. In a nutshell, we've gone from tracking a linear, well-behaved, modestly-positive correction...
MBS RECAP: Several Reasons Bonds Tanked Today

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by Matthew Graham on April 12 2018, 7:49 PM

At first glance, today was all about a de-escalation of yesterday's Syria rhetoric from Trump (re: "missiles"). Given that we were able to credit yesterday's news for helping bonds improve, it isn't too much to ask to believe today's...
MBS Day Ahead: Apart From Speculation, All We Have Are These Technical Levels

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by Matthew Graham on April 12 2018, 9:32 AM

On a week where the calendar of events had every right to push bond yields more decisively away from their most important recent technical level (2.795% in 10yr yields), we've instead seen a narrow consolidation centered on that same indecisive technical...
MBS RECAP: This Week is Getting Crazy Flat

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by Matthew Graham on April 11 2018, 6:37 PM

Bonds were set to begin the day in fairly unchanged territory when Trump tweeted about launching missiles at Syria and forcing Russia to try to shoot them down ( here ). That was initially of some benefit to bonds just before the start of the domestic...

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MBS Commentary

MBS RECAP: Bonds Add Exclamation Point to Yesterday's...

The break outside what we'll call the "Springtime Consolidation" for bonds started taking shape as early as last week. On Thursday and Friday...
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MBS Day Ahead: What Stock Lever? Bonds Tanking Without...

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MBS RECAP: More Warning Shots From Bonds

Today was a more serious version of the same sort of warning shots seen at the end of last week. At that time, bond yields rose to challenge an intermediate...
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MBS RECAP: Bonds Hold Ground Despite Stronger Data...

With elevated stock/bond correlation of late, it's always worth noting when things move in the opposite direction. Today was such a day, with stocks...
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Modest Improvements For Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates had a calm day. Lenders who had offered improved rate sheets yesterday afternoon didn't see much reason to drop rates any further today...
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Trade War Risks a Dark Cloud For an Otherwise Bright...

Fannie Mae's economists remain upbeat about economic growth in the medium term but said on Monday that they see increasing downside risks. In its March...
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MBS Day Ahead: Technically Under Attack, But is There...

Much of the analysis of the past few days has focused on the downwardly sloped trend channel seen in today's first chart. This can be thought of as...
MND NewsWire

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Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 4.58%
|
15 Yr FRM 3.95%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.59%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 103-27 (-0-11)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 106-03 (-0-06)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 108-00 (-0-11)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps -1.15%
|
Refinance Index -2.64%
|
Purchase Index 5.06%

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