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MBS RECAP: Only Two Interesting Minutes of the Day

MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Hit Hard by Stronger Jobs; Holding...

MBS Day Ahead: Today's Jobs Report Not Likely to Mark a Turning...

MBS RECAP: Uneventful Afternoon After Morning Volatility

MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Fighting Back Against Morning Weakness...

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Breaking Down Weather Implications in Stronger Employment Report

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Worst Week for Mortgage Rates since August 2013; Breaking Down the "Weather Effect" in the Jobs Report; Suntrust in Hot Seat; Ditech is Back

Published: 3/7/2014

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MBS RECAP: Only Two Interesting Minutes of the Day

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by Matthew Graham on March 07 2014, 4:26 PM

8:30-8:32... These were the only two minutes of the day where anything interesting was happening for bond markets. It wasn't the good kind of 'interesting' either as stronger employment data sparked big, fast selling before completely leaving...
MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Hit Hard by Stronger Jobs; Holding Ground Now

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by Matthew Graham on March 07 2014, 12:49 PM

Not only was this morning's employment data stronger than expected, but it would probably have been even stronger if not for the weather effect. As preposterous as this sounds to those hoping for lower rates and fed up with what sounds like an "excuse"...
MBS Day Ahead: Today's Jobs Report Not Likely to Mark a Turning Point

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by Matthew Graham on March 07 2014, 7:45 AM

The boring scenario for today would be for the all-important Employment Situation Report to show payroll creation lagging recent averages, coming in at or below consensus of 149k (or 154k for Private Payrolls). In that situation, market bulls and bears...
MBS RECAP: Uneventful Afternoon After Morning Volatility

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by Matthew Graham on March 06 2014, 4:32 PM

Bond markets were slightly weaker overnight as Geopolitical risk surround Ukraine continued to unwind. There wasn't much by way of new developments there, and level of movement (i.e. "not much") suggest the same. Domestic economic data kept...
MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Fighting Back Against Morning Weakness

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by Matthew Graham on March 06 2014, 11:57 AM

MBS are now at the best levels since before this morning's economic data. Before that, Treasuries were slightly weaker overnight, resulting in opening levels 2-3 ticks in the red for Fannie 4.0 MBS. Jobless Claims were lower than expected and Continued...
MBS Day Ahead: What Are We Waiting For?

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by Matthew Graham on March 06 2014, 8:00 AM

A quick recap of the year so far... January kicked off with bond markets holding their ground at the weakest levels in more than two years. The first jobs report of the year provided a big boost. Perhaps we were due a technical correction regardless,...
MBS RECAP: Calm Afternoon for Bond Markets, Holding Post-Data Gains

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by Matthew Graham on March 05 2014, 3:55 PM

The overnight session ushered trading levels into just slightly weaker territory in the first part of the domestic session. In other words, this morning's lower prices were a linear extension of yesterday's trend, but were stopped short by the...
MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets Reluctantly Stronger After Morning Data

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by Matthew Graham on March 05 2014, 11:48 AM

MBS and Treasuries are both in slightly positive territory, and that's saying something considering the apparent challenge involved in getting here. Treasuries were weaker overnight, resulting in a weaker open for MBS as well. Both actually remained...
MBS Day Ahead: Geopolitical Risk Takes a Breather; Econ Data's Turn

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by Matthew Graham on March 05 2014, 7:45 AM

"As with any geopolitical situation affecting markets, we'll only know the corner has been turned in hindsight. Until then, it's a wild card that's thus far been working in favor of bond markets, but we should remember that sets us up...
MBS RECAP: Worst day of Losses Since November 8th

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by Matthew Graham on March 04 2014, 4:40 PM

Nothing new happened all day long. Unfortunately, the order of the day was a steady selling spree in MBS and Treasuries--easily the worst we've seen since November 8th. The severity was amplified by the fact that bond market technicals were just reaching...
MBS MID-DAY: Markets Bounce on Ukraine Risk Reversal

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by Matthew Graham on March 04 2014, 12:41 PM

Ukraine-related headlines sent moderate shockwaves through markets overnight, pushing Treasury yields higher by the open. Since then, the negative momentum has continued in the absence substantive economic data. In short, Ukraine is today's only trade...
MBS Day Ahead: Bond Markets Transfixed by Ukraine? Not so Much

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by Matthew Graham on March 04 2014, 8:00 AM

While geopolitical tensions in Ukraine are certainly affecting markets, they're not affecting all markets equally. Core European debt has consistently responded to headlines with more volatility than US Treasuries, let alone MBS--another degree less...
MBS RECAP: February Bond Rally Continues in March Thanks to Ukraine

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by Matthew Graham on March 03 2014, 4:07 PM

As fun as it is to be cynical about the market movers getting the most attention, today's strength in bond markets really was mostly about Ukraine. This was apparent for a few reasons, not the least of which being that a majority of the gains occurred...
MBS MID-DAY: Bond Markets at Best Levels on Tepid Data and Ukraine

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by Matthew Graham on March 03 2014, 11:58 AM

There's always a risk of crediting uncommon news headlines with too much market movement . That's certainly happening with Ukraine to some extent at the moment, but Ukraine headlines are also certainly contributing to bond market positivity. As...
MBS Week Ahead: Jobs Report Collides with Geopolitical Risk

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by Matthew Graham on March 03 2014, 8:00 AM

This week's calendar of economic data has a roughly average number of reports, but several of them are potent market movers. Friday's jobs report , of course, is the most important piece of data as far as bond markets are concerned. Through it...

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