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MBS RECAP: Bonds Remain Under Pressure, But MBS Outperformed

MBS Morning: Stocks and Yields Keep Rising as Omicron Fear Continues...

MBS RECAP: Bonds Sell Off, But MBS Outperform

MBS Morning: Decent Start Considering The Headwinds

MBS RECAP: Big Reversal in Bonds After Stocks Sell Off

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MBS RECAP: Bonds Remain Under Pressure, But MBS Outperformed

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by Matthew Graham on December 07 2021, 4:41 PM

Bonds Remain Under Pressure, But MBS Outperformed Bonds managed to remain sideways during AM hours. In fact, MBS were as much as an eighth of a point higher versus opening levels by 11:30am. The tone soured in the PM hours. 10yr yields ultimately crested...
MBS Morning: Stocks and Yields Keep Rising as Omicron Fear Continues to Moderate

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by Matthew Graham on December 07 2021, 9:41 AM

Last week's story was simple: unknowns and risks surrounding omicron prompted traders to shed risk by selling stocks and buying bonds. Unfortunately for fans of low rates, this week's story is just as simple, but in the opposite direction. It's...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Sell Off, But MBS Outperform

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by Matthew Graham on December 06 2021, 4:26 PM

Bonds Sell-Off, But MBS Outperform The week began decently enough with bonds holding most of last week's gains during the first 90 minutes today. Things began to go south after the 9:30AM NYSE open as bond yields followed stocks higher. 10yr yields...
MBS Morning: Decent Start Considering The Headwinds

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by Matthew Graham on December 06 2021, 11:41 AM

Although MBS have been underperforming, the broader trend in the bond market remains in good shape--especially in light of current headwinds. The most notable headwind is the general optimism surrounding the omicron variant based on the weekend's...
MBS RECAP: Big Reversal in Bonds After Stocks Sell Off

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by Matthew Graham on December 03 2021, 4:19 PM

Big Reversal in Bonds After Stocks Sell Off Bonds paradoxically sold off after this morning's weaker jobs number. We could talk about why that might have happened or simply focus on what happened next: a big sell-off in stocks that quickly pushed...
MBS Morning: Mixed Reaction to Mixed Payrolls Data

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by Matthew Graham on December 03 2021, 10:55 AM

It's NFP day for the bond market although we have to ask ourselves what that really means in a world where the Fed has explicitly stated that it's seen enough labor market recovery to inform its next policy move (and moreover, where the Fed has...
MBS RECAP: MBS Have an Underperformance Problem, But It's Complicated

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by Matthew Graham on December 02 2021, 4:18 PM

MBS Give Up Yesterday's Gains Despite Decent Start MBS have a bit of a problem. In the past week, they've gone on their weakest run versus Treasuries since the crazy volatility seen at the start of the pandemic. The problem began with holiday...
MBS RECAP: Weaker Start, Stronger Finish on Omicron News

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by Matthew Graham on December 01 2021, 4:32 PM

Weaker Start, Stronger Finish Volatility has been elevated for the bond market in the past 4 weeks and especially in the past 2 weeks. Today was one of the milder days, but it was still good for a reasonably big shift from overnight levels to closing...
MBS Morning: Data, Fed, Issuance, And Variant Watching

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by Matthew Graham on December 01 2021, 11:09 AM

It's an interesting, confusing, and tumultuous moment for financial markets as traders digest an unprecedented confluence of relevant events. Two events account for a vast majority of this thesis: a potential shift in Fed policy at the next meeting...
MBS RECAP: Big Swings as Covid Squares Off Against The Fed

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by Matthew Graham on November 30 2021, 4:19 PM

Big Swings as Covid Squares Off Against The Fed It was omicron vs the Fed today and bonds had a front row seat. In the overnight session, comments from Moderna's CEO (lower vaccine efficacy expected for omicron variant) sent stock prices and bond...
MBS Morning: Another Omicron Rally; New Loan Limits TODAY

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by Matthew Graham on November 30 2021, 10:25 AM

Today's reaction function for the market is very simple and very obvious. Shortly after midnight, Moderna's CEO made some discouraging comments about the likely efficacy of current vaccines against the omicron variant, as well as the lead time...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Find Footing After Shaky Start

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by Matthew Graham on November 29 2021, 3:27 PM

Bonds Find Footing After Shaky Start This morning we found ourselves in the uncomfortable position of watching the bond market backtrack on massive gains at the end of the previous week. This is always a risk when the market goes on a big run--especially...
MBS Morning: Much Weaker Than Friday. Much Stronger Than Wednesday

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by Matthew Graham on November 29 2021, 11:12 AM

Bonds are starting out the new week retaining a majority of last Friday's mega rally. The omicron-inspired gains were big enough that 10yr yields are almost 4bps higher than they were on Friday afternoon, but still roughly 12bps lower than they were...
MBS RECAP: Covid Variant Causes Massive Market Reaction

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by Matthew Graham on November 26 2021, 2:50 PM

Covid Variant Causes Massive Market Reaction This morning it was B.1.1.529. By the afternoon, the WHO labeled it the Omicron variant. The market immediately took a "guilty until proven innocent" approach. Bonds surged significantly and stocks...
MBS Morning: B.1.1.529 Day

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by Matthew Graham on November 26 2021, 11:34 AM

Remember July? Covid was a fading memory and the light was clearly visible at the end of the pandemic tunnel. Then came Delta. It served as a painful lesson about the potential impact of covid variants. Now we have B.1.1.529. Like the MU variant, it may...

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