Today, 3:25 PM
Big Market Reaction but Mortgages Outperform
Today's jobs report would have been bad for rates if it was eve...
Today, 10:23 AM
Apart from the fact that this morning's jobs report contrasted starkly from the slew of anecdotal evidence suggesting a weaker labor market in June, t...
Wed, Jul 2 2025, 3:43 PM
Bonds Circle The Wagons Ahead of High Risk NFP
The consensus for tomorrow's NFP (nonfarm payrolls, the princ...
Wed, Jul 2 2025, 9:54 AM
ADP employment was this morning's key economic report and it came out sharply weaker than expected (-33k vs 95k f'cast). There are many past examples ...
Tue, Jul 1 2025, 4:06 PM
Traders Buy The Dip After AM Data
After a bit of overnight strength and an early morning pull-back, bonds we...
Tue, Jul 1 2025, 10:33 AM
Tuesday brings the week's first decent dose of meaningful economic data with both S&P/ISM Manufacturing PMIs and Job Openings. The PMI data was somew...
Mon, Jun 30 2025, 4:45 PM
Steady Gains in the PM Hours
It's common to see the effects of month/quarter-end trading most prominently in...
Mon, Jun 30 2025, 10:14 AM
Month/quarter end trading is a somewhat esoteric and potentially frustrating concept for the typical market watcher because it seemingly violates the ...
Fri, Jun 27 2025, 3:24 PM
Modest Friday Bounce Does Little to Alter Bigger Picture
After a decent mid-day recover, bonds gave up their...
Fri, Jun 27 2025, 10:04 AM
Bonds are slightly weaker to start the final trading day of the week, but that has nothing to do with this morning's PCE data. Despite being the Fed'...
Thu, Jun 26 2025, 3:32 PM
The Trend is Friendly For Now
A common financial market quip is that the "trend is your friend." We like to...
Thu, Jun 26 2025, 10:25 AM
Visually, the number of line items in this morning's economic calendar may seem daunting. In fact, several of the reports sound like they should matte...
Wed, Jun 25 2025, 4:21 PM
Mid Day Reversal Leaves Bonds Slightly Stronger
This morning, we noted the lightness of the selling pressure...
Wed, Jun 25 2025, 11:23 AM
Bonds are taking a breath this morning after hitting the best levels in more than a month yesterday. The event calendar is much lighter than it seems ...
Tue, Jun 24 2025, 3:34 PM
Solid Response to Data and Dovishness
The morning commentary focused more on the relatively dovish tone stru...
Tue, Jun 24 2025, 11:19 AM
Powell's prepared remarks and Q&A at today's congressional testimony are showing the market a clearer path to the possibility of rate cuts in the near...
Mon, Jun 23 2025, 4:18 PM
Best Closing Levels in More Than a Month
Don't look now, but rates just inched their way down to the best le...
Mon, Jun 23 2025, 11:23 AM
A vast majority of long-time bond watchers share the same general understanding of how war impacts rates. Specifically, the increased global economic ...
Fri, Jun 20 2025, 5:00 PM
Underwhelming (But Friendly) Conclusion
The present week didn't manage to offer nearly as much excitement as...
Fri, Jun 20 2025, 11:00 AM
Much like the Friday after Thanksgiving, we have to wonder what the point is of a trading session without any neighbors (there's actually some guiding...
Wed, Jun 18 2025, 4:57 PM
Fed Threads Needle of Apathy
Today marked one of only 4 days of the year with an updated Fed dot plot. When ...
Wed, Jun 18 2025, 2:00 PM
Although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The u...
Wed, Jun 18 2025, 10:47 AM
Fed day is here and there's a 0% chance of a rate cut. That's been the case for just over a month due a combination of April's jobs report and the st...
Tue, Jun 17 2025, 4:31 PM
Dot Plot in Focus With Fed's "No Cut" Announcement
Bonds lost some ground after this morning's economic data...
Tue, Jun 17 2025, 10:53 AM
Bonds were decently stronger in the overnight session, but not for any new, specific reasons. Trading levels have been cutting an increasingly narrow...
Mon, Jun 16 2025, 4:15 PM
Token Weakness Without a Cause
Sometimes bonds rally or sell-off for no apparent reason, or at least for no ...
Mon, Jun 16 2025, 10:25 AM
After rallying fairly well last Wednesday and Thursday, bonds pulled back on Friday, but not enough to erase more than half of the week's gains. The n...
Fri, Jun 13 2025, 3:32 PM
Not Reading Too Much Into Friday's Weakness
At first glance, with only one report on the calendar, it's only...
Fri, Jun 13 2025, 9:53 AM
By 8pm last night, news of Israel's attack on Iran erased an entire week of stock market gains and pushed bond yields to the lowest levels in more tha...
Thu, Jun 12 2025, 4:13 PM
Thursday's Data Offered No Objection to Overnight Rally
Thursday's PPI was just as tame as Wednesday's CPI a...
Thu, Jun 12 2025, 10:02 AM
This morning's PPI did its best impression of yesterday's CPI with the core monthly number coming in at 0.1 vs 0.3 forecast. In yesterday's case, this...
Wed, Jun 11 2025, 4:19 PM
Nice Rally on Data and Auction Results
Wednesday ended up being a straightforward session for bonds with a l...
Wed, Jun 11 2025, 9:53 AM
Heading into today's CPI data, our stance was that we'd need to see the monthly core number come in at 0.1 vs 0.3 in order to see much of a friendly r...
Tue, Jun 10 2025, 3:49 PM
No Drama Today. How About Tomorrow?
After a slightly bumpy start for reasons that remain unknown, the bond m...
Tue, Jun 10 2025, 10:46 AM
Although bonds are experiencing a small amount of volatility this morning, it isn't consequential in the bigger picture. Quick-but-modest weakness at...
Mon, Jun 9 2025, 3:56 PM
Gentle Rally Gently Reverses After Trade Headlines
First thing's first: bonds closed in stronger territory a...
Mon, Jun 9 2025, 10:12 AM
Overnight and early-session trading confirm the bond market is shifting gears and re-entering a sort of cruise control in the prevailing range. Had la...
Fri, Jun 6 2025, 5:02 PM
Perfectly Logical Reaction to On-Target Data
It's not necessarily a fun fact to face, but today's bond marke...
Fri, Jun 6 2025, 11:30 AM
The bond market was likely taking a bit of a lead-off ahead of today's jobs report, inspired by a string of weaker economic data over the past week. ...
Thu, Jun 5 2025, 4:05 PM
Bonds Dial Back Ahead of Big Jobs Report
It was a fairly interesting day for bonds, relative to the calendar...
Thu, Jun 5 2025, 10:04 AM
Bonds began the morning in rally mode, even if not in an extreme way. Gains lasted for about 20 minutes before reversing. The shift was accompanied ...
Wed, Jun 4 2025, 5:28 PM
Big Bond Rally After ADP and ISM
We knew the onus was on weaker economic data to justify any decent drop in ...
Wed, Jun 4 2025, 10:28 AM
It's been a fairly simple morning so far for the bond market. Both of the morning's key economic reports came in weaker than expected. In the case of ...
Tue, Jun 3 2025, 4:47 PM
JOLTS Data Didn't Help, But it Didn't Hurt Much Either
Bonds were moderately stronger overnight and then wea...
Tue, Jun 3 2025, 10:35 AM
First thing's first: the overnight rally was fairly modest with 10yr yields dropping about 3bps to 4.41 ahead of the domestic session. Given that the...
Mon, Jun 2 2025, 5:27 PM
New Month Selling Trumps ISM Data
It's not that this morning's ISM data failed to help the bond market. In f...
Mon, Jun 2 2025, 10:51 AM
The ISM Manufacturing PMI has more potential than most economic reports to cause a reaction in the bond market, even if it isn't perfectly consistent....
Fri, May 30 2025, 4:19 PM
Strongest Close of the Week After Well-Contained Month-End Volatility
There was always a reasonably high bar...
Fri, May 30 2025, 9:14 AM
Today's PCE Price Index is one of the two main consumer inflation reports put out by the US government. It's bigger and broader than CPI, but CPI com...
Thu, May 29 2025, 4:46 PM
Bonds Hold Morning Gains; No Reaction to Tariff Headlines
To be clear, markets reacted to tariff headlines y...
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