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MBS RECAP: Gains Evaporate as Day Winds Down

MBS MID-DAY: Weaker After Morning Data, but MBS Outperforming

The Day Ahead: First Significant Econ Data and Last Treasury...

MBS RECAP: Paradoxical Rally Finally Reverses

MBS MID-DAY: Holding Surprisingly Steady Ahead of Auction

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New Home Purchase Apps Dwindle; Foreclosure Crisis Defeated?; Appraisal Exemptions; Rates are Actually Near Recent Highs

Published: 12/12/2013

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MBS RECAP: Gains Evaporate as Day Winds Down

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December 12 2013, 4:05 PM

Market participation dwindled rapidly after the 30yr auction relief rally. MBS and Treasuries leveled off and held sideways heading into 2pm, with volumes sparse since then. Fannie 4.0s are down 4 ticks on the day at 103-07, which is 5-6 ticks lower than...
MBS MID-DAY: Weaker After Morning Data, but MBS Outperforming

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December 12 2013, 11:05 AM

Fannie 4.0s are down from 103-11 to 103-07, enough to consider ourselves at the early edge of negative reprice risk for lenders who put out rates before 10:15am (roughly). The rate sheet print time is a bit of a moving target because we're not privy...
The Day Ahead: First Significant Econ Data and Last Treasury Auction

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by Matthew Graham on December 12 2013, 2:54 AM

Yesterday - Treasuries somewhat weaker overnight, much weaker in afternoon - Budget deal talk, weak auction, technical shift all weighed - MBS were tame until after 10yr Auction, weakness and reprices afterward - Fannie 4.0s lost about half a point, rate...
MBS RECAP: Paradoxical Rally Finally Reverses

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December 11 2013, 5:05 PM

There have been quite a few reprice alerts so far today, partly because of how the weakness has unfolded and partly because it's the first major shift in momentum since NFP. This is the one that brings "most lenders" into the picture as...
MBS MID-DAY: Holding Surprisingly Steady Ahead of Auction

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December 11 2013, 11:05 AM

Fannie 4.0s are down 6 ticks on the day, and roughly four of those have come since the first rate sheets of the day. That puts us right on the edge of entering negative reprice risk territory for the most price-sensitive lenders, but support is holding...
The Day Ahead: MBS Considerations on Watt Confirmation; 10yr Treasury Auction

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by Matthew Graham on December 11 2013, 7:40 AM

Yesterday - Bond markets saw steady, grinding improvements overnight - Short covering and technical targets provided more motivation than fundamentals - MBS set their trading range for the entire day in the first hour - Fannie 4.0s added 8/32nds and rates...
MBS RECAP: Heading Out Near Best Levels

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December 10 2013, 4:05 PM

10yr yields drifted toward the 3yr auction with a slight downward trajectory. Nothing changed about that momentum or the volume with which it was trading (fairly light) until well after the results were out. Treasury futures volume and prices spiked around...
MBS MID-DAY: Snowball Out of Steam; Budget Headline Potential

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December 10 2013, 11:05 AM

Fannie 4.0s have fallen to levels just on the edge of negative reprice risk for some lenders. This heavily depends on the time of day that an initial rate sheet came out. Fannie 4.0s are up 4 ticks on the day, but down 4-5 ticks from the morning's...
The Day Ahead: Slightly Busier Day, Sorting Real vs Temporary Strength

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by Matthew Graham on December 10 2013, 7:17 AM

Yesterday - Uneventful, low-volume, sideways, uninspired - Despite all that boring stuff, MBS made moderate gains - Treasuries gained slightly, but fairly sideways overall since Friday - Technical picture improved Today - Slightly more volume should show...
MBS RECAP: Further Improvement Amid Low Volume Backdrop

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December 09 2013, 4:05 PM

Just a heads up that we're 4 ticks off the highs of the day in Fannie 4.0s, though only 2-3 ticks off rate sheet print time levels depending on the lender. That almost certainly precludes any price-based reprice risk unless we were to see another...
MBS MID-DAY: Holding Gains Amid Very Quiet Conditions

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December 09 2013, 11:05 AM

Treasuries were docile overnight. Volume was fairly light, as was motivation, with the most significant trading cues coming from the observation of other trades (rather than economic data and events). Slightly weaker German Industrial Production and Eurozone...
The Week Ahead: Limited Data and Treasury Auctions

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by Matthew Graham on December 09 2013, 7:12 AM

Last Week - MBS sold off Mon-Thu, then bounced after Friday's Jobs Report - Bounce was paradoxical on stronger Jobs. Lots of potential reasons - Bond markets were defensively prepared for strong NFP - Friday was the high point of a week that was decidedly...
MBS RECAP: Surprising Post-NFP Rally Just a Consolation Prize?

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December 06 2013, 4:05 PM

MBS Live : MBS Afternoon Market Summary "So long MBS and thanks for putting up with all the abuse!" That might be a caption for today's Employment report. In a way, it's like a consolation prize for mortgage-backed-securities, which continue to look relatively...
How Are MBS Possibly Improving After the Jobs Report?!

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December 06 2013, 11:05 AM

- Sentiment 82.5 vs 76.0 forecast - Current conditions 97.9 vs 90.0 forecast - Both at highest levels since July - Market Reaction: traders are probably discounting a lot of this positivity due to gas prices. Bond markets head-faked toward weaker territory...
The Day Ahead: Jobs Report to Read Verdict on December Taper Risk

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by Matthew Graham on December 06 2013, 1:08 AM

Yesterday - Bond Markets extended losing streak after stronger GDP and Jobless Claims - MBS held their ground fairly well considering the data - Charts ended up looking like a choppy extension of Wednesday afternoon - Rate sheets were unchanged Today...

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