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MBS RECAP: Week's Monotonous Trend Broken as Bond Markets...

MBS MID-DAY: Weakness Persists Despite Rotten New Home Sales...

MBS Day Ahead: Rates Continue Hovering on the Edge of a Breakout...

MBS RECAP: Bond Markets Lose Ground After Strong Start; MBS Underperform

MBS MID-DAY: Back to Unchanged After Stronger Start

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Housing Market Sending Mixed Signals -Freddie Mac

New Home Sales Decline from Downgraded May Numbers

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Modest Housing Recovery Will Continue -Fannie

Mortgage Rates Back up to Unchanged After Stronger Start

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Mortgage Rates Rise at Fastest Pace in Weeks; Housing Market's Mixed Signals; Bad Month for New Home Sales

Published: 7/24/2014

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MBS RECAP: Week's Monotonous Trend Broken as Bond Markets Slide

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by Matthew Graham on July 24 2014, 3:59 PM

For the past 4 sessions, bond markets have traded a narrow range near their best levels of the year. This effectively began with the geopolitical risk rally on the 17th. It's not entirely fair to say the narrow trend is over, but if not, it's...
MBS MID-DAY: Weakness Persists Despite Rotten New Home Sales Data

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by Matthew Graham on July 24 2014, 12:27 PM

Typically, negative economic data on the scale of this morning's New Home Sales would be a clearly positive factor for bond prices. Sales fell at their fastest pace since last July and last month's strong report was revised to mediocre levels...
MBS Day Ahead: Rates Continue Hovering on the Edge of a Breakout

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by Matthew Graham on July 24 2014, 7:42 AM

The past 5 days have simply seen rates grind around recent lows. Things have been a bit brighter in Treasuries compared to MBS, but in general, both have traded increasingly narrow ranges near the best levels of the year (again, that's more true for...
MBS RECAP: Bond Markets Lose Ground After Strong Start; MBS Underperform

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by Matthew Graham on July 23 2014, 5:05 PM

Although MBS did a good job of pushing back against a recent bout of underperformance over the past 3 sessions, today showed it won't be a straight shot. In other words, MBS had closed the gap to Treasuries somewhat since Friday, but it widened again...
MBS MID-DAY: Back to Unchanged After Stronger Start

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by Matthew Graham on July 23 2014, 12:49 PM

In terms of domestic economic data and events, not much has happened today. The key driver of morning gains was the reaction to Bank of England Minutes and comments from BOE Governor Mark Carney. Long story short, all of the above turned out a bit friendlier...
MBS Day Ahead: Data-Free Day Leaves Bonds to Ponder Long-Term Ranges

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by Matthew Graham on July 23 2014, 7:33 AM

Having spent the last 4 sessions trading near 2.47%, 10yr yields are operating in an important zone historically. For all intents and purposes, yields have only ever moved decisively through this zone one time without bouncing back shortly thereafter...
MBS RECAP: Gains Remain Intact Through Afternoon; Narrow Range Overall

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by Matthew Graham on July 22 2014, 4:56 PM

Bond markets didn't put on much of a show today, but what little there was managed to be enjoyable . Credit that to the fact that trading levels made it back into positive territory twice and held steady through the close. Overnight weakness was a...
MBS MID-DAY: Mixed Signals From Econ Data Leave Bonds Just Slightly Weaker

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by Matthew Graham on July 22 2014, 12:22 PM

MBS began the session at a disadvantage after overnight trading pushed bond yields and stock prices higher. At 8:30am, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data was a bit softer than expected. With the increasingly real conversation about raising rates at the...
MBS Day Ahead: More on The Calendar Today, but Will it Matter?

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by Matthew Graham on July 22 2014, 7:39 AM

2014 has been an interesting year for bond markets. In fact, in terms of its ability to continually confound market expectations, it's been one of the most interesting years of the recovery. This is not because there's been any large and unexpected...
MBS RECAP: With Nothing Better to do, Bonds Follow Stocks and Headlines

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by Matthew Graham on July 21 2014, 5:36 PM

If you haven't heard already (say, like 7 or 8 times from us--both before and after the fact), today's calendar was fairly light for bond markets. In terms of scheduled economic data, there was nothing significant. The slow nature of the day was...
MBS MID-DAY: With Little Else to Watch, Rates Follow Stocks Lower

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by Matthew Graham on July 21 2014, 11:35 AM

With no major economic data on the calendar, and no game-changing headlines to react to, bond markets have been content to follow stocks so far this morning. Stocks are weaker and bonds are stronger. There's not much more to it than that. This dynamic...
MBS Week Ahead: Limited Data This Week, but Several Housing-Related Reports; Following Week is BIG

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by Matthew Graham on July 21 2014, 7:33 AM

In many ways, the current week will serve as a prelude to the following week, which is exceptionally packed with big-ticket events . From Wednesday to Friday (next week), we'll get the first look at Q2 GDP, ADP Employment, the last Treasury auction...
MBS RECAP: As Initial Headline Shock Fades, Bonds Level-Off

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by Matthew Graham on July 18 2014, 4:02 PM

The amount of geopolitical turmoil in the world today is not materially better than yesterday, but without new surprises to fuel safe-haven demand, bond markets found no reason to extend the rally . That said, if the rally was somehow overdone or made...
MBS MID-DAY: Giving Back Some Gains; Mostly Uneventful; Some Reprice Risk

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by Matthew Graham on July 18 2014, 12:13 PM

Sometimes the 2nd day of a big geopolitical move will spiral into a volatile blaze of glory. Other times, it's like today. Bond markets are calmly marching to slightly weaker levels. The same narrow trend has been intact all morning. It began PERFECTLY...
MBS Day Ahead: Basically Just Waiting on Geopolitical Risk; Dangerous Game for Bonds

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by Matthew Graham on July 18 2014, 7:31 AM

Although economic data had some small role to play in yesterday's strong bond market rally, the day was really all about geopolitical risk. If we've learned anything about geopolitical risk as a market mover, it's to not rely on it as a long term guidance...

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