Today, 10:04 AM
It's a data-free Monday on a holiday-shortened week and there aren't any high-impact headlines or massive stock swings to spark any serious bond marke...
Fri, Nov 21 2025, 3:04 PM
Bonds Hold Gains Despite Ongoing Recovery in Stocks
The stock market factored into the bond market's perform...
Fri, Nov 21 2025, 9:31 AM
It was a pretty straightforward overnight session with a very high degree of correlation between bond yields and stock prices. The final leg of the ra...
Thu, Nov 20 2025, 4:21 PM
Decent Gains Remain Intact; Stock Market Contribution is a Wild Card
The rescheduled release of the Septembe...
Thu, Nov 20 2025, 9:19 AM
It's shaping up to be a "no whammies" sort of morning for the bond market. There's no denying that the jobs report was a highly tradeable event. The ...
Wed, Nov 19 2025, 4:23 PM
Fed Minutes Push Yields Higher
As expected, the recent raft of hawkish Fed speakers foreshadowed (whether in...
Wed, Nov 19 2025, 10:11 AM
Correlation between stocks and bonds is hit and miss depending on other factors. Before the age of more aggressive Fed intervention, it was more commo...
Tue, Nov 18 2025, 4:46 PM
Modest Gains After Mid-Day Volatility
With only a few exceptions, bonds have been a rudderless ship during t...
Tue, Nov 18 2025, 10:22 AM
We've seen a clumsy, confused return of various economic reports this morning (several reports were no previously announced with rescheduled release d...
Mon, Nov 17 2025, 4:07 PM
Uneventful Monday; MBS Underperform
In the bigger picture, bonds were flat on Monday without any major volat...
Mon, Nov 17 2025, 9:30 AM
The jobs report (for September) will be released on Thursday. It is the first major econ data to re-appear after the shutdown. Notably, that's because...
Fri, Nov 14 2025, 4:58 PM
Gains Completely Erased; Stocks Looking More Culpable
Viewed in a vacuum, this mornings 7-8am rally remains ...
Fri, Nov 14 2025, 9:24 AM
Bonds were sideways to slightly weaker in the overnight session. 4am to 7am was exceptionally flat and narrow. This is notable because stocks had don...
Thu, Nov 13 2025, 4:02 PM
Moderately Weaker With Only The Reopening to Blame
The government reopened on Thursday. Both stocks and bon...
Thu, Nov 13 2025, 8:06 AM
First off, the market expected a shutdown resolution by mid November and especially since this past weekend. That's the reason today's news means ess...
Wed, Nov 12 2025, 4:10 PM
Bonds Look Past 10yr Auction to Maintain Focus on Jobs
While there were no big ticket economic reports on to...
Wed, Nov 12 2025, 10:21 AM
ADP has been in the monthly data game for a long time when it comes to payroll counts, but their weekly report is the new kid on the econ data block. ...
Mon, Nov 10 2025, 4:27 PM
Counting Down to Ending The Shutdown After Tuesday's Holiday Closure
Bonds were weaker in the overnight sess...
Mon, Nov 10 2025, 11:18 AM
If members of the House can make it back to D.C. in sufficient numbers, there's a real possibility that the shutdown will end this week. Some marketpl...
Fri, Nov 7 2025, 10:51 AM
Although bonds began the day in roughly unchanged territory, they began losing ground shortly thereafter. Things changed at the 9:30am NYSE open as st...
Thu, Nov 6 2025, 5:14 PM
Have Bonds Found Their Post-Fed Footing?
Looked at one way, bonds have been in a moderate selling trend sinc...
Thu, Nov 6 2025, 10:49 AM
The shutdown has not only placed more emphasis on the alternative data that was already in the rotation, but also fueled interest in new sources. One ...
Wed, Nov 5 2025, 10:28 AM
Today is a rare day when it comes to economic data. The first Wednesday of any given month is often an important one for economic data because ISM Se...
Tue, Nov 4 2025, 4:49 PM
Wednesday More Likely to Take Cues From Econ Data
Bonds benefited from heavy stock selling late in the overn...
Tue, Nov 4 2025, 9:53 AM
It doesn't always work like this, but today's overnight session saw the classic "conventional wisdom" trade with stocks prices and bond yields falling...
Mon, Nov 3 2025, 4:00 PM
Light Volatility After Initial Losses
The first day of the new month began with some potential excitement, a...
Mon, Nov 3 2025, 11:03 AM
Bonds were moderately weaker in the overnight session with most of the selling arriving at 7:56am ET when Alphabet filed for a large corporate bond of...
Fri, Oct 31 2025, 3:53 PM
Sideways Overall Despite Hawkish Fed Speakers
Although there was some mid-day volatility (early buying follo...
Fri, Oct 31 2025, 10:29 AM
With the shutdown ongoing, and the big ticket econ data vanished into the void, there's little for the bond market to do apart from get its books in o...
Thu, Oct 30 2025, 4:59 PM
Uneventfully Flat After Initial Weakness
The bond market only had a little more selling to do thanks to the ...
Thu, Oct 30 2025, 10:22 AM
The simplest way to understand yesterday's post-Fed sell-off is as follows. The market's enthusiasm for 3 Fed rate cuts in 2025 had grown a bit too la...
Wed, Oct 29 2025, 3:12 PM
Another Hawkish Powell Press Conference Harshes Bonds' Mellow
The Fed cut rates and ended QT. Neither were ...
Wed, Oct 29 2025, 2:01 PM
Recent Available indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year has been expanding at a moderate pa...
Wed, Oct 29 2025, 11:50 AM
Bonds are a hair weaker this morning with losses showing up in the overnight session and mostly flattening out in domestic trading. Without any big t...
Tue, Oct 28 2025, 4:59 PM
Modestly Stronger Ahead of Fed Day
Without any market moving econ data on Tuesday, bonds finally managed to ...
Tue, Oct 28 2025, 10:57 AM
First off, bonds are doing fine this morning. 10yr yields are technically higher on the day, but only when compared to yesterday's 5pm levels. As fa...
Mon, Oct 27 2025, 3:41 PM
Bonds Improve After Treasury Auctions
Treasury auctions don't always cause a reaction in bonds, but they did...
Mon, Oct 27 2025, 10:34 AM
As the shutdown continues, econ data remains sparse. This makes for smaller, more range-bound movement overall with last week making a decent case to ...
Fri, Oct 24 2025, 4:47 PM
Decent Recovery After AM Backtracking
CPI data was a mixed bag for bonds. Top-line numbers fueled a quick r...
Fri, Oct 24 2025, 9:47 AM
In terms of topline results, CPI was bond friendly with the core at .223 vs .3 and the headline at 0.3 vs 0.4 in monthly terms. Annually, we're runni...
Thu, Oct 23 2025, 5:00 PM
CPI Just as Risky as Usual--Perhaps More So
Bonds sold off on Thursday in a move that was as easy to chalk u...
Thu, Oct 23 2025, 10:18 AM
Everything's relative when it comes to rates being high or low, but let's agree that the past 2 years have relentlessly driven home the notion of an i...
Wed, Oct 22 2025, 3:50 PM
20yr Treasury Auction to The Rescue
The day began with a bond market that looked like it might take an oppor...
Wed, Oct 22 2025, 11:17 AM
Think back to October 17th. MBS opened slightly weaker and ended the day down about an eighth of a point. That was the last time we had a weaker star...
Tue, Oct 21 2025, 5:07 PM
Slow, Steady Gains Continue
Perhaps the absence of big-ticket econ data has left bond traders to ponder a re...
Tue, Oct 21 2025, 11:34 AM
On the one hand, there's not much going on for the bond market these days. The jobs report is a flat-out requirement in terms of informing major chan...
Mon, Oct 20 2025, 4:17 PM
Strange Combo of Excitement and Boredom
Boring stuff first: there was no significant data, news, volume, or ...
Mon, Oct 20 2025, 11:16 AM
New week. Same grind. We're waiting (likely for a good while longer) for the government shutdown to end before the most relevant econ data can truly e...
Fri, Oct 17 2025, 5:01 PM
Logical Pull-Back on Tamer Tariff Talk, But Mortgages Outperform
If there was only one event to be aware of ...
Fri, Oct 17 2025, 11:53 AM
By process of elimination and ongoing forensic efforts, it's becoming more and more clear that yesterday's mystery rally in the short end of the yield...
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