Wed, Sep 3 2025, 4:21 PM
Straightforward Data-Driven Rally
It proved to be an incredibly straightforward day for the bond market. Tr...
Wed, Sep 3 2025, 10:12 AM
Bonds were flat to just slightly stronger in the overnight session but a noticeable rally is underway following the JOLTS data (job openings and labor...
Tue, Sep 2 2025, 4:33 PM
Still in The Range as Bonds Wait For Bigger Influences
Bonds were noticeably weaker to start the new month w...
Tue, Sep 2 2025, 10:31 AM
The Tuesday after Labor Day can have a mind of its own when it comes to financial markets--especially if it also happens to be the trading day of the ...
Fri, Aug 29 2025, 4:21 PM
Calm Day to End A Calm Week
While Friday itself may not have resulted in a rally for the broader bond market...
Fri, Aug 29 2025, 11:44 AM
There are two big picture inflation reports in US that address consumer prices: CPI and PCE. Of the two, PCE is broader and more highly regarded by po...
Thu, Aug 28 2025, 4:15 PM
Generally Exciting, But Specifically Boring
Heading into the present week, it was incredibly unlikely that w...
Thu, Aug 28 2025, 9:10 AM
This morning's economic calendar only looks robust on paper. While quarterly GDP results in numerous line items, they're not as important as they mig...
Wed, Aug 27 2025, 5:12 PM
Steady Gains After Slightly Weaker Start
Bonds began the day in slightly weaker territory, but not for any p...
Wed, Aug 27 2025, 11:18 AM
Not that this week's economic calendar is especially robust, but Wednesday's offerings are especially light. There are no monthly economic reports on ...
Tue, Aug 26 2025, 5:46 PM
Modest, Incidental Victory
Bonds closed with MBS in line with their best levels of the day, up an eighth of ...
Tue, Aug 26 2025, 10:30 AM
Focusing only production MBS coupons and longer-term Treasuries, the bond market is off to another slow, sideways start today with minimal change vers...
Mon, Aug 25 2025, 4:32 PM
Fairly Quiet Monday Considering Last Week's Noise
In last week's defense, it really wasn't that noisy, but F...
Mon, Aug 25 2025, 11:37 AM
Last week may have ended on a high note with bonds rallying on Powell's Jackson Hole speech, but perception was better than reality at the time. The r...
Fri, Aug 22 2025, 4:38 PM
Jackson Hole Speech Delivers
Powell's Jackson Hole speech was this week's only big ticket in terms of market...
Fri, Aug 22 2025, 10:59 AM
Today's Jackson Hole speech gave Fed Chair Powell an opportunity to adjust his stance in light of much weaker jobs report that came out 2 days after t...
Thu, Aug 21 2025, 3:33 PM
Some Headwinds Ahead of Powell's Jackson Hole Speech
Thursday brought the week's only relevant econ data wit...
Thu, Aug 21 2025, 10:24 AM
Today is the only day of the week with any economic reports that are relevant to bond market movement. The results are in, and bonds aren't thrilled. ...
Wed, Aug 20 2025, 3:19 PM
Almost No Reaction to Fed Minutes
As expected, today's Fed Minutes (a more detailed account of the meeting t...
Wed, Aug 20 2025, 10:35 AM
By now, we've already said quite a bit about this week's scarcity of scheduled events with the power to motivate meaningful changes in the bond market...
Tue, Aug 19 2025, 4:21 PM
Slow, Steady, Modest Improvement
Bonds are in the throes of the summertime "blahs." In other words, exciteme...
Tue, Aug 19 2025, 12:08 PM
If yesterday was marked by incidental weakness, today is shaping up to be the opposite. In fact, yields and MBS prices are right in line with Friday'...
Mon, Aug 18 2025, 3:56 PM
Incidental Weakness or a New Trend?
The most interesting thing that happened in the bond market today involv...
Mon, Aug 18 2025, 10:09 AM
Summertime trading conditions tend to amplify trading motivations that might otherwise get lost in the shuffle. This morning, it's been the opening be...
Fri, Aug 15 2025, 3:30 PM
Weaker Conclusion But No Major Big Picture Implications
Despite much stronger revisions and a modestly stron...
Fri, Aug 15 2025, 10:03 AM
Friday morning's highlight is the Retail Sales report which came in at a respectable 0.5 vs 0.5 headline. Core retail sales (excluding autos/gas/build...
Thu, Aug 14 2025, 2:27 PM
Bonds Hold The Range Despite More Data-Driven Volatility
At 0.9, not only did today's PPI crush the 0.2 fore...
Thu, Aug 14 2025, 10:58 AM
There's no question that today's Producer Price Index came in surprisingly hot. Both the headline and core numbers were 0.9% vs forecasts of 0.2%. Th...
Wed, Aug 13 2025, 4:19 PM
Data-Free Rally Day
Wednesday represented this week's lull in terms of scheduled market movers on the calend...
Wed, Aug 13 2025, 9:40 AM
Bonds rallied overnight, largely in concert with lower EU yields. Stable inflation in Germany and lower oil prices helped. But there was also a tailwi...
Tue, Aug 12 2025, 4:33 PM
Bonds Eventually Pass on Decisive Reaction to Tuesday's Data
Right at the 8:30am release time, bonds rallied...
Tue, Aug 12 2025, 9:20 AM
There's something for everyone in this morning's CPI data. The monthly headline was on target at 0.2 vs 0.2. Same story for the core at 0.3 vs 0.3. Bo...
Mon, Aug 11 2025, 3:35 PM
Bonds Mostly Steady Ahead of CPI
Treasuries outperformed MBS just slightly today, but both were close enough...
Mon, Aug 11 2025, 11:34 AM
July represents the core of the summertime lull in financial markets. June and August are typically part of the lull unless econ data is suggesting a...
Fri, Aug 8 2025, 3:25 PM
Focus Shifts to Next Week's High Stakes CPI
Bonds lost ground at the fastest pace of the week on Friday, but...
Fri, Aug 8 2025, 11:00 AM
Any week in early August (before anyone is back to school yet) classifies a "dog days of summer" type of week for the bond market. Movement is more ra...
Thu, Aug 7 2025, 4:19 PM
Fairly Resilient Despite Bumpy Auction
The relevant morning econ data was limited to Jobless Claims. While t...
Thu, Aug 7 2025, 9:49 AM
The week's last hope for any signs of life from economic data has come and gone with this morning's Jobless Claims. To be fair, there was never reall...
Wed, Aug 6 2025, 4:26 PM
More Ground-Holding Despite Weird Intraday Spike
This morning's commentary led with our desire to avoid jinx...
Wed, Aug 6 2025, 11:26 AM
We don't want to jinx it, but this is turning out to be an uncommonly calm week of trading compared to other post-jobs-report trading weeks. So far, ...
Tue, Aug 5 2025, 4:37 PM
Bonds Hold Steady After Modest Data-Driven Rally
Today's (and to be fair, this week's) only major econ data-...
Tue, Aug 5 2025, 10:43 AM
The ISM Services Index is/was easily this week's biggest ticket in terms of scheduled economic data. It was mostly OK for bonds with the growth-relate...
Mon, Aug 4 2025, 4:47 PM
Calmly Closing at Best Levels Since April
As far as post-NFP Mondays go, this was a calm one. Bonds never s...
Mon, Aug 4 2025, 11:26 AM
The new week is less interesting than the previous week in terms of scheduled events with the only top tier data being Tuesday's ISM Non Manufacturing...
Fri, Aug 1 2025, 5:07 PM
Bond Traders Quickly Revise Their Bullishness
"Revision" is the word of the day as every armchair economist ...
Fri, Aug 1 2025, 11:59 AM
Non-farm payrolls came in at 73k vs 110k, which is a pretty good thing for the bond market in and of itself. But the bigger story is in the net revis...
Thu, Jul 31 2025, 4:47 PM
Month-End Volatility Erodes Modest Gains
Bonds were slightly stronger in the overnight session and this morn...
Thu, Jul 31 2025, 3:11 PM
Below is a table that consolidates the results of various econ reports as well as NFP precedents that speak to the odds of NFP moving higher or lower ...
Thu, Jul 31 2025, 10:33 AM
While jobless claims and the Employment Cost Index can be market movers, today's biggest ticket in the 8:30am slot was the monthly PCE Price Index for...
Wed, Jul 30 2025, 4:16 PM
Markets Expected More Dovishness From Powell
AM data was a mixed bag that left bonds slightly weaker on the ...
MBS Market Alerts
