Fri, Jan 16 2026, 4:28 PM
10yr Yields Finally Break The Range
Despite an absence of market movers on the calendar, bonds found a reaso...
Fri, Jan 16 2026, 10:38 AM
Last week reinforced the lesson anything can happen in the bond market--even with less than an hour left on an otherwise uneventful day. There's no wa...
Thu, Jan 15 2026, 4:32 PM
Data-Driven Weakness
It was a reasonably straightforward day for the bond market. Trading was flat overnight...
Thu, Jan 15 2026, 8:40 AM
The weekly jobless claims data (not to be confused with the big monthly jobs report) is hit and miss when it comes to its propensity to move the bond ...
Wed, Jan 14 2026, 3:57 PM
Some Asymmetric Risk When it Comes to Locking vs Floating
Bonds improved today mostly in response to heavy s...
Wed, Jan 14 2026, 8:58 AM
10yr Treasury futures volumes spiked about 5 times higher in the 2 minutes following yesterday's CPI than in the 2 minutes following this morning's PP...
Tue, Jan 13 2026, 4:46 PM
CPI Helped Bonds Avoid Losing Ground
Bonds began the day in slightly weaker territory and managed to flip in...
Tue, Jan 13 2026, 10:00 AM
CPI came out just a bit lower than expected with the monthly core at 0.2 vs 0.3 and annual core at 2.6 vs 2.7. The unrounded numbers were closer to f...
Mon, Jan 12 2026, 4:16 PM
Incidental Weakness Ahead of CPI Data
Bonds were marginally weaker on Monday with no obvious scapegoats in s...
Mon, Jan 12 2026, 10:29 AM
The most important-sounding news over the weekend was last night's subpoena of Fed Chair Powell over statements made to congress regarding the Fed's b...
Fri, Jan 9 2026, 4:16 PM
Wild Ride For MBS as Traders Digest New Developments
We may have been looking to the jobs report as this wee...
Fri, Jan 9 2026, 11:12 AM
On Thursday afternoon with less than an hour left to trade, Trump announced he would be directing his representatives to buy $200bln in mortgage-backe...
Fri, Jan 9 2026, 8:40 AM
The jobs report came out mixed with payrolls falling 10k short of the 60k forecast and the unemployment rate ticking down to 4.4% vs a 4.5% forecast. ...
Thu, Jan 8 2026, 4:27 PM
Mostly Quiet Ahead of Friday's Jobs Report
Bonds lost a bit of ground on Thursday with most of the weakness ...
Thu, Jan 8 2026, 9:23 AM
US bonds have been taking clear cues from Europe in overnight trading recently. Today's example involved a 3bp sell-off on both sides of the Atlantic....
Wed, Jan 7 2026, 5:02 PM
Ultimately Underwhelming Despite Seemingly Significant Data
There was certainly the potential for volatility...
Wed, Jan 7 2026, 8:45 AM
Bonds rallied steadily overnight with more of the gains aligning with a data-driven bond rally in Europe. The overnight move brought 10yr yields rough...
Tue, Jan 6 2026, 4:25 PM
Ending Near Unchanged Levels After Early Head Fake
Trading volumes confirm that bonds are 100% back in actio...
Tue, Jan 6 2026, 9:54 AM
A range trading theme has dominated the bond market since the most recent high yield on December 10th and the most recent low the following day. 100% ...
Mon, Jan 5 2026, 4:19 PM
Bonds Improve Back to Pre-Holiday Levels
While there was some relevant econ data today (ISM Manufacturing), ...
Mon, Jan 5 2026, 10:20 AM
By 10am ET, today's trading volume has already surpassed that seen on December 23rd and 26th (both full trading days)--proof positive that the market ...
Fri, Jan 2 2026, 3:52 PM
Modest Incidental Weakness
Despite a bit of incidental selling today, the bond market has survived the winte...
Fri, Jan 2 2026, 10:47 AM
Friday is merely a day to be watched in case it misbehaves. The econ calendar is essentially empty (just S&P manufacturing PMI), overnight volatility ...
Wed, Dec 31 2025, 1:24 PM
Token Year-End Volatility
Wednesday's shortened session offered more excitement than the first two days of t...
Wed, Dec 31 2025, 8:56 AM
Human traders may be extremely underrepresented on today's half-day trading session, but the robots/algos know what to do with a sub-200k Jobless Clai...
Tue, Dec 30 2025, 3:23 PM
Modest Recovery From Morning Weakness
Bonds were slightly weaker this morning in a move that looked like it ...
Tue, Dec 30 2025, 10:58 AM
If we turn up the magnification on our market-watching microscopes, it may seem like something important happened in the bond market overnight. 10yr y...
Mon, Dec 29 2025, 4:26 PM
Uneventful And Slightly Stronger
Although volumes picked up a bit versus Friday, no one would confuse the la...
Mon, Dec 29 2025, 10:26 AM
In addition to this week's holiday closure (early close Wednesday, fully closed Thursday), the econ calendar is also lacking in terms of potential so...
Fri, Dec 26 2025, 3:17 PM
Bonds End Unchanged After Another Quiet Session
This is essentially placeholder commentary to serve as Frida...
Fri, Dec 26 2025, 10:58 AM
Although the bond market is technically open today, it might as well not be. Late year holidays (Thanksgiving, X-mas, New Year) depress volume and liq...
Wed, Dec 24 2025, 1:18 PM
Decent Gains With Some Help From 7yr Auction
You know it's a holiday with an early closure if we're talking ...
Wed, Dec 24 2025, 9:26 AM
While many government employees have the day off today and Friday, these are not new, official Federal Holidays. As such, the bond market is open on t...
Tue, Dec 23 2025, 4:43 PM
Stunning Display of Holiday Trading Weirdness
GDP for Q3 may be ancient history as far as econ data goes, bu...
Tue, Dec 23 2025, 9:54 AM
We've spent the past several days reiterating and lamenting the onset of the holiday trading doldrums--a time of year that sees vastly lower volumes/l...
Mon, Dec 22 2025, 3:57 PM
Range-Bound Cruise Control, PM Edition
Bonds came into the domestic session at slightly weaker levels and he...
Mon, Dec 22 2025, 10:34 AM
2025 is effectively over when it comes to meaningful shifts in the bond market. The coming days will be so heavily-affected by light volume/liquidity ...
Fri, Dec 19 2025, 4:33 PM
Bond Market in Holiday Mode
Holiday mode is impossible to clearly define when it comes to its impact on the ...
Fri, Dec 19 2025, 10:12 AM
There was a fair amount of momentum among financial news sources regarding the potential significance of last night's Bank of Japan (BOJ) announcement...
Thu, Dec 18 2025, 4:53 PM
Limited Follow-Through After Shockingly Big Miss
If you told the average trader that today's core CPI would ...
Thu, Dec 18 2025, 8:47 AM
Great news for bonds on the inflation front this morning: Core annual inflation came in at 2.6% compared to a 3.0% forecast and 3.0% last time. It's ...
Wed, Dec 17 2025, 4:17 PM
Slightly More Focus Than Normal on Thursday's CPI
Wednesday ended up being an uneventful trading day with bo...
Wed, Dec 17 2025, 10:35 AM
Wednesday is largely a placeholder as 2025's relevant trading days evaporate. Apart from the year-end influences on the 29th-31st, Thursday's CPI argu...
Tue, Dec 16 2025, 2:42 PM
Unemployment Not High Enough For a Full-Fledged Rally
If the only metric from this morning's jobs report was...
Tue, Dec 16 2025, 9:05 AM
If there was one metric in this morning's data that should be helping the bond market, it's the uptick in the unemployment rate from 4.4% in September...
Mon, Dec 15 2025, 3:20 PM
Fairly Calm Monday. Jobs Report on Deck
Monday ended up being a forgettable December trading day with modest...
Mon, Dec 15 2025, 10:00 AM
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is responsible for the two most important economic reports to the bond market: The Employment Situation (aka jobs...
Fri, Dec 12 2025, 9:41 AM
There's a noticeable divergence between long and short term bonds since the Fed announcement, and it's becoming more pronounced today. We can conside...
Thu, Dec 11 2025, 4:11 PM
Two-Way Trading But Not Much Day-Over-Day Movement
Bonds had a solid morning, adding moderately to yesterday...
Thu, Dec 11 2025, 10:22 AM
Bonds are adding moderate to yesterday's post-Fed gains. Most of today's rally has followed this morning's jobless claims data, but we wouldn't necess...
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