Tue, Feb 17 2026, 4:27 PM
Calm Start Even if Modestly Weaker
The day before and/or after a 3-day weekend is more volatile than the ave...
Tue, Feb 17 2026, 11:25 AM
At the start of the domestic session, bonds had actually managed to build on last week's impressive gains, even if only by a few bps. That was a bit o...
Fri, Feb 13 2026, 4:13 PM
Bonds Close Out Epic Week of Resilience With Friendly Data
Friday was a logically friendly day thanks to sli...
Fri, Feb 13 2026, 9:55 AM
CPI came in just a hair below forecasts at the headline level and right in line with forecasts at the core level (unrounded .295 vs .300). Shelter com...
Thu, Feb 12 2026, 4:16 PM
Yields Magically and Mysteriously Sink to Lowest Levels in 2 Months.
At the 3pm CME close, 10yr yields were ...
Thu, Feb 12 2026, 9:07 AM
When the jobs report makes a big statement, bonds are more likely to exhibit elevated momentum and volatility in the following days. In more than a fe...
Wed, Feb 11 2026, 4:09 PM
Stunning Resilience
One could argue that our bar is set too low if we view today's bond market resilience as...
Wed, Feb 11 2026, 9:48 AM
Nearly an hour after this morning's surprisingly strong jobs report, 10yr yields are only 4.4bps higher at 4.19%. On a normal day, 4.4bps might be a f...
Tue, Feb 10 2026, 3:39 PM
Best Levels in Weeks Ahead of High Stakes Jobs Report
Rather than circle the wagons and consolidate the rece...
Tue, Feb 10 2026, 9:42 AM
Last Thursday, we discussed the paradox of a rally in the present moment being driven by future data. More specifically, the three downbeat labor mark...
Mon, Feb 9 2026, 4:31 PM
Early Volatility And a Decent Recovery
Bonds lost ground in the overnight session after Chinese regulators c...
Mon, Feb 9 2026, 11:02 AM
Most nights, Treasuries trade in fairly low volume in a fairly narrow range. Last night's range wasn't much wider than normal, but most of the moveme...
Fri, Feb 6 2026, 3:31 PM
Potential Signs of GSE Buying as MBS Outperform
It was an uneventful day when it comes to scheduled data/eve...
Fri, Feb 6 2026, 9:53 AM
Friday is the quietest day of the week in terms of scheduled econ data and events, with the relatively unimportant Consumer Sentiment being the only n...
Thu, Feb 5 2026, 2:59 PM
Surprisingly Big Bond Rally Relative to The Data
Bonds went on a bit of a buying spree on Thursday. It was t...
Thu, Feb 5 2026, 9:21 AM
Bonds were incidentally and inconsequentially stronger to start the overnight session, but began to see better gains after 7am ET. There were two nota...
Wed, Feb 4 2026, 3:57 PM
No Whammies in Wednesday's Data. JOLTS Rescheduled for Thursday
With the big jobs report on hold until next ...
Wed, Feb 4 2026, 9:01 AM
Today's two key reports are ADP Employment (8:15am ET) and ISM Services (10am ET). The former came out a bit softer than expected, but bonds didn't r...
Tue, Feb 3 2026, 3:48 PM
Mostly Sideways. Volatility Elsewhere
The legend of the bond market's extreme apathy is increasingly making ...
Tue, Feb 3 2026, 10:38 AM
While not as disruptive or publicized as the most recent example, there's a partial government shutdown underway. Even if the House passes the funding...
Mon, Feb 2 2026, 4:14 PM
Data-Driven Sell-Off Dominates The Day. No Jobs Report on Friday
Very little changed after this morning's co...
Mon, Feb 2 2026, 10:19 AM
Some would say there were warning signs, such as last week's Chicago PMI surging to the 2nd highest level since 2022, but that was generally dismissed...
Fri, Jan 30 2026, 4:36 PM
Volatility Eludes Bonds
Bonds saw some steady selling pressure earlier in the week, but with the total damag...
Fri, Jan 30 2026, 10:03 AM
PPI... The Producer Price Index. It sounds a lot like CPI because both are published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and they share lots of methodol...
Thu, Jan 29 2026, 4:37 PM
Bonds End Up Little-Changed. Other Markets May Have Helped
Bonds began the day with a bit of selling pressur...
Thu, Jan 29 2026, 9:51 AM
Continued jobless claims dropped to the lowest level since October 2024 and bonds are selling off a bit. Those two things may seem like they're clear...
Wed, Jan 28 2026, 4:16 PM
No Surprises From Powell. No Major Movement in Rates
As expected, the Fed held rates steady today. The state...
Wed, Jan 28 2026, 2:00 PM
Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate solid pace. Job gains have slowed this year, remained low, ...
Wed, Jan 28 2026, 10:10 AM
Wednesday brings 2026's first Fed announcement, but it's guaranteed to be one of the least interesting. For a start, this is one of 4 annual meetings ...
Tue, Jan 27 2026, 4:15 PM
Gradual Weakness After AM Gains
Bonds began the day in weaker territory, but logged some solid gains in the ...
Tue, Jan 27 2026, 8:37 AM
There are few developments in bond market charts that can lead even fundamental analysts to acknowledge the technicals. One of the most common catalys...
Mon, Jan 26 2026, 3:59 PM
Small, Steady Gains and MBS Outperformance
It was a relatively quiet Monday for the bond market, but not a b...
Mon, Jan 26 2026, 9:05 AM
This week's only marquee calendar event is Wednesday's Fed announcement, and it's unclear what the Fed could possibly do or say to inspire much of a r...
Fri, Jan 23 2026, 4:45 PM
Uneventful Conclusion to a Volatile Week
Bonds put in a decent day on Friday, ultimately getting back into p...
Fri, Jan 23 2026, 9:41 AM
Bonds rallied modestly in the overnight session. There were no notable spikes in volume or volatility--just a gradual grind that took 10yr yields roug...
Thu, Jan 22 2026, 4:07 PM
Bonds Erase Most of The Overnight Weakness
Thursday could be viewed two ways. On one hand, bonds lost ground...
Thu, Jan 22 2026, 9:40 AM
Bonds found a bid along with stocks yesterday afternoon after Trump announced a "framework of a deal" on Greenland. Markets were much less interested...
Wed, Jan 21 2026, 3:45 PM
Bonds Recovering a Bit After "Framework of a Deal" on Greenland
Geopolitics have been front and center for f...
Wed, Jan 21 2026, 10:47 AM
With mortgage rates right where they were 2 weeks ago, things could be worse. But after rising 20bps from last week's lows, things could also certainl...
Tue, Jan 20 2026, 4:52 PM
Range Breakout Intensifies. Chicken or Egg?
After months spent observing the same old range in the bond mark...
Tue, Jan 20 2026, 9:36 AM
As Trump's Greenland aspirations continue unabated, measurable fallout is increasing. Part of the strategy is increased tariffs. EU is also planning/t...
Fri, Jan 16 2026, 4:28 PM
10yr Yields Finally Break The Range
Despite an absence of market movers on the calendar, bonds found a reaso...
Fri, Jan 16 2026, 10:38 AM
Last week reinforced the lesson anything can happen in the bond market--even with less than an hour left on an otherwise uneventful day. There's no wa...
Thu, Jan 15 2026, 4:32 PM
Data-Driven Weakness
It was a reasonably straightforward day for the bond market. Trading was flat overnight...
Thu, Jan 15 2026, 8:40 AM
The weekly jobless claims data (not to be confused with the big monthly jobs report) is hit and miss when it comes to its propensity to move the bond ...
Wed, Jan 14 2026, 3:57 PM
Some Asymmetric Risk When it Comes to Locking vs Floating
Bonds improved today mostly in response to heavy s...
Wed, Jan 14 2026, 8:58 AM
10yr Treasury futures volumes spiked about 5 times higher in the 2 minutes following yesterday's CPI than in the 2 minutes following this morning's PP...
Tue, Jan 13 2026, 4:46 PM
CPI Helped Bonds Avoid Losing Ground
Bonds began the day in slightly weaker territory and managed to flip in...
Tue, Jan 13 2026, 10:00 AM
CPI came out just a bit lower than expected with the monthly core at 0.2 vs 0.3 and annual core at 2.6 vs 2.7. The unrounded numbers were closer to f...
Mon, Jan 12 2026, 4:16 PM
Incidental Weakness Ahead of CPI Data
Bonds were marginally weaker on Monday with no obvious scapegoats in s...
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