Mon, Jun 9 2025, 3:56 PM
Gentle Rally Gently Reverses After Trade Headlines
First thing's first: bonds closed in stronger territory a...
Mon, Jun 9 2025, 10:12 AM
Overnight and early-session trading confirm the bond market is shifting gears and re-entering a sort of cruise control in the prevailing range. Had la...
Fri, Jun 6 2025, 5:02 PM
Perfectly Logical Reaction to On-Target Data
It's not necessarily a fun fact to face, but today's bond marke...
Fri, Jun 6 2025, 11:30 AM
The bond market was likely taking a bit of a lead-off ahead of today's jobs report, inspired by a string of weaker economic data over the past week. ...
Thu, Jun 5 2025, 4:05 PM
Bonds Dial Back Ahead of Big Jobs Report
It was a fairly interesting day for bonds, relative to the calendar...
Thu, Jun 5 2025, 10:04 AM
Bonds began the morning in rally mode, even if not in an extreme way. Gains lasted for about 20 minutes before reversing. The shift was accompanied ...
Wed, Jun 4 2025, 5:28 PM
Big Bond Rally After ADP and ISM
We knew the onus was on weaker economic data to justify any decent drop in ...
Wed, Jun 4 2025, 10:28 AM
It's been a fairly simple morning so far for the bond market. Both of the morning's key economic reports came in weaker than expected. In the case of ...
Tue, Jun 3 2025, 4:47 PM
JOLTS Data Didn't Help, But it Didn't Hurt Much Either
Bonds were moderately stronger overnight and then wea...
Tue, Jun 3 2025, 10:35 AM
First thing's first: the overnight rally was fairly modest with 10yr yields dropping about 3bps to 4.41 ahead of the domestic session. Given that the...
Mon, Jun 2 2025, 5:27 PM
New Month Selling Trumps ISM Data
It's not that this morning's ISM data failed to help the bond market. In f...
Mon, Jun 2 2025, 10:51 AM
The ISM Manufacturing PMI has more potential than most economic reports to cause a reaction in the bond market, even if it isn't perfectly consistent....
Fri, May 30 2025, 4:19 PM
Strongest Close of the Week After Well-Contained Month-End Volatility
There was always a reasonably high bar...
Fri, May 30 2025, 9:14 AM
Today's PCE Price Index is one of the two main consumer inflation reports put out by the US government. It's bigger and broader than CPI, but CPI com...
Thu, May 29 2025, 4:46 PM
Bonds Hold Morning Gains; No Reaction to Tariff Headlines
To be clear, markets reacted to tariff headlines y...
Thu, May 29 2025, 10:56 AM
We have a primer in the MBS Live knowledge base regarding the potential for overnight news and bond trading to give a completely different impression ...
Wed, May 28 2025, 4:51 PM
Minimal Movement Amid Absence of Data
It was ultimately a fairly uneventful session for bonds with the 5yr T...
Wed, May 28 2025, 12:14 PM
After starting the holiday-shortened week on a positive note yesterday, bonds are already circling the wagons and encountering some resistance. This d...
Tue, May 27 2025, 5:20 PM
Bonds Finally Seeing Some Support
Whether one wants to give credit to the big rally in Japanese bonds, the w...
Tue, May 27 2025, 11:33 AM
Last week's overseas headlines raised questions about about a spillover from volatility in the Japanese bond market to US yields. At issue: attention-...
Fri, May 23 2025, 3:34 PM
A Little Early Excitement
Bonds began the day with a bit of excitement following Trump comments on raising E...
Fri, May 23 2025, 10:37 AM
The most notable development on what might otherwise have been a sleepy half-day ahead of a holiday weekend was Trump's "recommendation" of a 50% tari...
Thu, May 22 2025, 4:38 PM
Slightly Stronger Because Not Every Day Can be Weaker
Bond yields have moved almost exclusively higher in Ma...
Thu, May 22 2025, 10:06 AM
The most significant development of the overnight session was the early morning passage of the spending bill in the House. This resulted in only a mod...
Wed, May 21 2025, 4:34 PM
Treasury Auction Blamed as Bond Vigilantes' Smoking Gun
Vigilante justice! Taking matters into one's own ha...
Wed, May 21 2025, 10:50 AM
We're now into the 3rd day of a week that's conspicuously lacking in relevant econ data. In addition, the looming holiday weekend hinders participatio...
Tue, May 20 2025, 5:01 PM
Ultimately Sort of Flat if You Use Your Imagination
Here's a quick and easy method for imagining that bonds ...
Tue, May 20 2025, 10:11 AM
It's a holiday-shortened week with a relatively empty economic calendar, thus forcing the bond market to find its movement cues elsewhere. To some sma...
Mon, May 19 2025, 3:51 PM
(Un)Surprising Reversal After Initial Weakness
The sharp overnight losses in stocks and bonds were consisten...
Mon, May 19 2025, 9:10 AM
When Moody's announced the surprise cut of the US credit rating on Friday, there were only a few minutes left to trade and all but the latest working ...
Fri, May 16 2025, 5:26 PM
Moody's Pulls Pin And Walks Away With 10 Minutes Left to Trade
Bonds began the day stronger after a gentle o...
Fri, May 16 2025, 10:34 AM
One might assume that an economic report like Import Prices would carry a lot of weight in light of the news cycle or that the highest 1yr inflation e...
Thu, May 15 2025, 4:25 PM
Today's Gains Help Us Understand Yesterday's Losses
Wednesday's weakness was severely lacking in the scapego...
Thu, May 15 2025, 9:58 AM
This morning's market action is quickly helping us understand the enigmatic trading seen yesterday (i.e. a sell-off without any great scapegoats). Re...
Wed, May 14 2025, 5:08 PM
Another "Just Because" Sell Off
This is getting old... and unfortunately, more prevalent. The bond market h...
Wed, May 14 2025, 11:13 AM
It's a potentially frustrating time for bond watchers. The rules have already changed in a big way to accommodate the new wild card presented by tarif...
Tue, May 13 2025, 5:07 PM
Bonds End Almost Perfectly Flat
There are two kinds of rate/bond watchers today: those who tuned in late in...
Tue, May 13 2025, 10:49 AM
Heading into the session, we knew there was a high bar for CPI to have a positive influence on bonds with the future tariff landscape reducing the rel...
Mon, May 12 2025, 5:07 PM
Is All News Bad News For Bonds? Will CPI Matter?
At times these day, it may seem like all news is bad news ...
Mon, May 12 2025, 11:01 AM
10yr yields were up 8bps overnight to the highest levels since April 11th after weekend trade talks between the US and China resulted in significant r...
Fri, May 9 2025, 5:07 PM
Flat Friday, But Volatility Risks Remain
Bonds started weaker, flipped stronger mid-day, and then slowly mov...
Fri, May 9 2025, 11:04 AM
A glance at today's economic calendar quickly reveals that Fed speeches are the only game in town in terms of scheduled events. But what can the Fed ...
Thu, May 8 2025, 4:52 PM
Surprisingly Big Sell Off Relative to The Inspiration
Bonds ended up selling off somewhat sharply today with...
Thu, May 8 2025, 11:00 AM
Bonds mostly lost ground in the overnight session, and then lost just a bit more ground after the 8:30am econ data. This consisted of Jobless Claims ...
Wed, May 7 2025, 4:34 PM
Just as Underwhelming as Expected
No sense in trying to manufacture excitement out of something boring. Even...
Wed, May 7 2025, 2:00 PM
Recent Although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pa...
Wed, May 7 2025, 11:04 AM
Wednesday begins with bonds battling back from modest overnight weakness (now moving into modestly stronger territory), but not for any particular rea...
Tue, May 6 2025, 4:10 PM
10yr Auction to The Rescue
Today's 10yr Treasury auction was the only relevant calendar event in terms of po...
Tue, May 6 2025, 10:37 AM
Bonds have been on both sides of unchanged so far today. The overnight session began with slightly higher yields followed by a gradual rally. By 9am ...
Mon, May 5 2025, 4:30 PM
Selling Spree Continues, But Gently
Bonds were focused on this morning's ISM Services Index with some trader...
MBS Market Alerts
