Wed, Sep 17 2025, 4:44 PM
Powell Press Conference Trumps The Dots, Sparking Moderate Sell-Off
Of today's Fed events (rate announcement...
Wed, Sep 17 2025, 2:00 PM
Although swings in net exports continue to affect the data, recent Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first...
Wed, Sep 17 2025, 10:51 AM
The Fed rate announcement is at 2pm ET. A single 25bp rate cut is fully priced in to the bond market and that cut will not be responsible for any vola...
Tue, Sep 16 2025, 4:03 PM
Big Shift Toward 5.0 Coupons Continues
Mortgage rates have lurched rapidly lower in September as 5.0 UMBS ha...
Tue, Sep 16 2025, 10:02 AM
After last week's CPI data was taken mostly in stride, the only other potential economic data hurdle was this morning's Retail Sales report. Whereas C...
Mon, Sep 15 2025, 3:47 PM
Uneventful Rally. Retail Sales on Deck
Bonds began the week on a stronger note, but not for any glaringly ob...
Mon, Sep 15 2025, 11:25 AM
For all the time we spend pushing back on the notion that the Fed Funds Rate is a root cause for volatility in longer-term rates, that push-back alway...
Fri, Sep 12 2025, 3:43 PM
Incidental, Inconsequential Weakness Ahead of Fed Week
Bonds began the day in modestly weaker territory and ...
Fri, Sep 12 2025, 11:11 AM
Bonds began the week with 10yr at 4.07 before rallying down to 4.04 by Monday's close. Now on Friday, we're opening at 4.06 and we haven't spent much...
Thu, Sep 11 2025, 4:25 PM
Very Calm Reaction But Not Too Surprising
One could argue that CPI is the next biggest potential market move...
Thu, Sep 11 2025, 12:10 PM
It's an interesting morning for economic data and the bond market's reaction. At face value, CPI was mostly in line with forecasts, but unrounded num...
Wed, Sep 10 2025, 4:28 PM
Helpful Data and Treasury Auction Set High Bar For CPI
Another fairly straightforward day for the bond marke...
Wed, Sep 10 2025, 11:27 AM
Of the two inflation reports out this week, PPI is the lesser of the two in terms of importance, but it came in far enough below forecasts to prompt s...
Tue, Sep 9 2025, 4:04 PM
Post-NFP Rally Momentum Fades
When bonds string together several successive days of improvement, the probabi...
Tue, Sep 9 2025, 10:31 AM
On August 1st, Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) not only came out weaker than expected, but the previous two reports were also revised significantly lower. This...
Mon, Sep 8 2025, 3:33 PM
More Gains Despite Absence of New Motivation
There's not much to say about Monday other than "we'll take it!...
Fri, Sep 5 2025, 4:44 PM
Textbook Reaction With Minimal Volatility
The bond market's reaction to today's jobs report was a textbook e...
Fri, Sep 5 2025, 12:32 PM
It may seem like today's bond market movement alone (3/8ths higher in MBS and 0.09% in 10yr yields) doesn't explain the pace of improvement in mortgag...
Fri, Sep 5 2025, 9:07 AM
It's a fairly straightforward morning with NFP coming in much weaker than expected with additional net-negative revisions to the previous 2 months. Th...
Thu, Sep 4 2025, 3:54 PM
Bonds Positioning For Weaker NFP?
One of the best things to understand about the jobs report is that the pay...
Thu, Sep 4 2025, 10:33 AM
Thursday morning's slate of econ data was the most active of the week with claims, layoffs, ADP, and ISM Services (also the Trade Gap and Labor Costs,...
Wed, Sep 3 2025, 4:21 PM
Straightforward Data-Driven Rally
It proved to be an incredibly straightforward day for the bond market. Tr...
Wed, Sep 3 2025, 10:12 AM
Bonds were flat to just slightly stronger in the overnight session but a noticeable rally is underway following the JOLTS data (job openings and labor...
Tue, Sep 2 2025, 4:33 PM
Still in The Range as Bonds Wait For Bigger Influences
Bonds were noticeably weaker to start the new month w...
Tue, Sep 2 2025, 10:31 AM
The Tuesday after Labor Day can have a mind of its own when it comes to financial markets--especially if it also happens to be the trading day of the ...
Fri, Aug 29 2025, 4:21 PM
Calm Day to End A Calm Week
While Friday itself may not have resulted in a rally for the broader bond market...
Fri, Aug 29 2025, 11:44 AM
There are two big picture inflation reports in US that address consumer prices: CPI and PCE. Of the two, PCE is broader and more highly regarded by po...
Thu, Aug 28 2025, 4:15 PM
Generally Exciting, But Specifically Boring
Heading into the present week, it was incredibly unlikely that w...
Thu, Aug 28 2025, 9:10 AM
This morning's economic calendar only looks robust on paper. While quarterly GDP results in numerous line items, they're not as important as they mig...
Wed, Aug 27 2025, 5:12 PM
Steady Gains After Slightly Weaker Start
Bonds began the day in slightly weaker territory, but not for any p...
Wed, Aug 27 2025, 11:18 AM
Not that this week's economic calendar is especially robust, but Wednesday's offerings are especially light. There are no monthly economic reports on ...
Tue, Aug 26 2025, 5:46 PM
Modest, Incidental Victory
Bonds closed with MBS in line with their best levels of the day, up an eighth of ...
Tue, Aug 26 2025, 10:30 AM
Focusing only production MBS coupons and longer-term Treasuries, the bond market is off to another slow, sideways start today with minimal change vers...
Mon, Aug 25 2025, 4:32 PM
Fairly Quiet Monday Considering Last Week's Noise
In last week's defense, it really wasn't that noisy, but F...
Mon, Aug 25 2025, 11:37 AM
Last week may have ended on a high note with bonds rallying on Powell's Jackson Hole speech, but perception was better than reality at the time. The r...
Fri, Aug 22 2025, 4:38 PM
Jackson Hole Speech Delivers
Powell's Jackson Hole speech was this week's only big ticket in terms of market...
Fri, Aug 22 2025, 10:59 AM
Today's Jackson Hole speech gave Fed Chair Powell an opportunity to adjust his stance in light of much weaker jobs report that came out 2 days after t...
Thu, Aug 21 2025, 3:33 PM
Some Headwinds Ahead of Powell's Jackson Hole Speech
Thursday brought the week's only relevant econ data wit...
Thu, Aug 21 2025, 10:24 AM
Today is the only day of the week with any economic reports that are relevant to bond market movement. The results are in, and bonds aren't thrilled. ...
Wed, Aug 20 2025, 3:19 PM
Almost No Reaction to Fed Minutes
As expected, today's Fed Minutes (a more detailed account of the meeting t...
Wed, Aug 20 2025, 10:35 AM
By now, we've already said quite a bit about this week's scarcity of scheduled events with the power to motivate meaningful changes in the bond market...
Tue, Aug 19 2025, 4:21 PM
Slow, Steady, Modest Improvement
Bonds are in the throes of the summertime "blahs." In other words, exciteme...
Tue, Aug 19 2025, 12:08 PM
If yesterday was marked by incidental weakness, today is shaping up to be the opposite. In fact, yields and MBS prices are right in line with Friday'...
Mon, Aug 18 2025, 3:56 PM
Incidental Weakness or a New Trend?
The most interesting thing that happened in the bond market today involv...
Mon, Aug 18 2025, 10:09 AM
Summertime trading conditions tend to amplify trading motivations that might otherwise get lost in the shuffle. This morning, it's been the opening be...
Fri, Aug 15 2025, 3:30 PM
Weaker Conclusion But No Major Big Picture Implications
Despite much stronger revisions and a modestly stron...
Fri, Aug 15 2025, 10:03 AM
Friday morning's highlight is the Retail Sales report which came in at a respectable 0.5 vs 0.5 headline. Core retail sales (excluding autos/gas/build...
Thu, Aug 14 2025, 2:27 PM
Bonds Hold The Range Despite More Data-Driven Volatility
At 0.9, not only did today's PPI crush the 0.2 fore...
Thu, Aug 14 2025, 10:58 AM
There's no question that today's Producer Price Index came in surprisingly hot. Both the headline and core numbers were 0.9% vs forecasts of 0.2%. Th...
Wed, Aug 13 2025, 4:19 PM
Data-Free Rally Day
Wednesday represented this week's lull in terms of scheduled market movers on the calend...
MBS Market Alerts
