Tue, Oct 28 2025, 4:59 PM
Modestly Stronger Ahead of Fed Day
Without any market moving econ data on Tuesday, bonds finally managed to ...
Tue, Oct 28 2025, 10:57 AM
First off, bonds are doing fine this morning. 10yr yields are technically higher on the day, but only when compared to yesterday's 5pm levels. As fa...
Mon, Oct 27 2025, 3:41 PM
Bonds Improve After Treasury Auctions
Treasury auctions don't always cause a reaction in bonds, but they did...
Mon, Oct 27 2025, 10:34 AM
As the shutdown continues, econ data remains sparse. This makes for smaller, more range-bound movement overall with last week making a decent case to ...
Fri, Oct 24 2025, 4:47 PM
Decent Recovery After AM Backtracking
CPI data was a mixed bag for bonds. Top-line numbers fueled a quick r...
Fri, Oct 24 2025, 9:47 AM
In terms of topline results, CPI was bond friendly with the core at .223 vs .3 and the headline at 0.3 vs 0.4 in monthly terms. Annually, we're runni...
Thu, Oct 23 2025, 5:00 PM
CPI Just as Risky as Usual--Perhaps More So
Bonds sold off on Thursday in a move that was as easy to chalk u...
Thu, Oct 23 2025, 10:18 AM
Everything's relative when it comes to rates being high or low, but let's agree that the past 2 years have relentlessly driven home the notion of an i...
Wed, Oct 22 2025, 3:50 PM
20yr Treasury Auction to The Rescue
The day began with a bond market that looked like it might take an oppor...
Wed, Oct 22 2025, 11:17 AM
Think back to October 17th. MBS opened slightly weaker and ended the day down about an eighth of a point. That was the last time we had a weaker star...
Tue, Oct 21 2025, 5:07 PM
Slow, Steady Gains Continue
Perhaps the absence of big-ticket econ data has left bond traders to ponder a re...
Tue, Oct 21 2025, 11:34 AM
On the one hand, there's not much going on for the bond market these days. The jobs report is a flat-out requirement in terms of informing major chan...
Mon, Oct 20 2025, 4:17 PM
Strange Combo of Excitement and Boredom
Boring stuff first: there was no significant data, news, volume, or ...
Mon, Oct 20 2025, 11:16 AM
New week. Same grind. We're waiting (likely for a good while longer) for the government shutdown to end before the most relevant econ data can truly e...
Fri, Oct 17 2025, 5:01 PM
Logical Pull-Back on Tamer Tariff Talk, But Mortgages Outperform
If there was only one event to be aware of ...
Fri, Oct 17 2025, 11:53 AM
By process of elimination and ongoing forensic efforts, it's becoming more and more clear that yesterday's mystery rally in the short end of the yield...
Thu, Oct 16 2025, 4:16 PM
Seriously... No One Seems to Know
Today's most prominent feature was a large, rapid move in Fed Funds Future...
Thu, Oct 16 2025, 9:40 AM
There were quite a few economic reports that would have been released this morning were it not for the gov shutdown. OK, well only 3 notable absences...
Wed, Oct 15 2025, 5:32 PM
Fairly Flat At Strongest Levels in Weeks
10yr yields ended the day a mere 0.1bp higher than yesterday (4.029...
Wed, Oct 15 2025, 10:16 AM
Stocks have made a bit of a round trip since last Friday when Trump's tariff comments sparked a big sell-off. Bonds benefited from that at the time. ...
Tue, Oct 14 2025, 5:43 PM
Yields Hug Multi-Week Lows After Powell Speech
Bonds were remarkably resilient over the extended weekend giv...
Tue, Oct 14 2025, 9:59 AM
Bonds are flashing red on the screen (depending on when you look), but even at their weakest levels of the morning, we'd still consider this a stronge...
Fri, Oct 10 2025, 5:43 PM
Markets Rocked by New Tariff Drama
Bonds were already having a decent day this morning with overnight market...
Fri, Oct 10 2025, 9:44 AM
At the start of the week, we noted Japanese political developments as a key reason for overnight losses on Monday morning. This had to do with Takaich...
Thu, Oct 9 2025, 4:05 PM
Uneventful Day; MBS Underperform
It's not uncommon to see MBS outperform their Treasury benchmarks in the ru...
Thu, Oct 9 2025, 9:17 AM
With Jobless Claims on hold due to the shutdown, bonds are forced to endure another data-free morning. The calendar offered a glimmer of hope with a P...
Wed, Oct 8 2025, 3:21 PM
Some Selling Pressure After Auction and Fed Minutes
There were no market-moving economic reports scheduled f...
Wed, Oct 8 2025, 9:33 AM
While there are a smattering of Fed speakers on the calendar today, the morning comments are not likely to have an impact. In fact, the average Fed sp...
Tue, Oct 7 2025, 4:26 PM
Bonds Turn Green After Econ Data and Treasury Auction
Bonds began the day in slightly weaker territory as yi...
Tue, Oct 7 2025, 11:38 AM
10yr yields drifted up toward the 4.20% technical level overnight but buyers showed up at the 8:20am CME open. The initial recovery looks more technic...
Mon, Oct 6 2025, 4:39 PM
Incidental Weakness But No Big Picture Change
There were no economic reports on tap today and no obvious mar...
Mon, Oct 6 2025, 8:57 AM
On paper, it was supposed to have been a sleepy session for bonds with nothing of note on the econ calendar. But in practice, we're seeing one of the ...
Fri, Oct 3 2025, 4:59 PM
Weaker Day, Stronger Week
Friday ended up seeing the bond market give up some ground with most of the weakne...
Fri, Oct 3 2025, 10:12 AM
With NFP on hold due to the shutdown, today's ISM Services was our only chance for for data driven volatility in the 2nd half of the week. A big beat...
Thu, Oct 2 2025, 4:04 PM
Ultra Quiet Session, But Ultimately Stronger
With the day's only relevant econ data on hold due to the shutd...
Thu, Oct 2 2025, 9:45 AM
As a reminder, economic data published by government entities is on hold during the shutdown. Today, that means no Jobless Claims (also no Factory Ord...
Wed, Oct 1 2025, 3:53 PM
Best Closing Levels in More Than a Week, But Still Generally Flat
Short version: bonds have been basically f...
Wed, Oct 1 2025, 8:32 AM
Bonds were already a hair stronger coming into the ADP data, but the results (-32k vs 50k forecast and previous month revised to -3k from 54k) have pr...
Tue, Sep 30 2025, 4:12 PM
Gains Erased by Month/Quarter-End Trading
If it's the last day of a month and especially if it's also the la...
Tue, Sep 30 2025, 11:25 AM
No new news on the probably government shutdown, but betting markets show increased odds, for whatever that's worth. The only reason to watch or care ...
Mon, Sep 29 2025, 5:08 PM
Waiting on Details as Bonds Reinforce The Range
It was a forgettable trading day, but at least slightly stro...
Mon, Sep 29 2025, 10:00 AM
Under normal circumstance, we look forward to the first Friday of any given month as the day that the jobs report takes a swing at sending the stronge...
Fri, Sep 26 2025, 10:36 AM
PCE may be the most relevant inflation report when it comes to assessing progress toward the Fed's 2% target, but it is not the most relevant report t...
Thu, Sep 25 2025, 3:54 PM
Reasonably Resilient After AM Losses
In another straightforward trading session, bonds responded logically t...
Thu, Sep 25 2025, 10:54 AM
It's been a fairly straightforward morning so far with economic data coming out much stronger than expected. While the reports in question are not in...
Wed, Sep 24 2025, 4:06 PM
Weaker Thanks to 2 Kinds of "Supply"
At its core, the bond market is like any other financial market, and se...
Wed, Sep 24 2025, 11:33 AM
It would be an overstatement to say that this week's econ calendar has been "active," but yesterday at least had unscripted comments from Fed Chair Po...
Tue, Sep 23 2025, 4:15 PM
Modestly Stronger After No Whammies From Powell
Last week's press conference with Fed Chair Powell could be ...
Tue, Sep 23 2025, 11:03 AM
Fed Chair Powell speaks today at a chamber of commerce luncheon in Providence. While the venue may not possess the gravitas of last week's press confe...
Mon, Sep 22 2025, 3:47 PM
Slow Burn With Little to Blame
Bonds started out sideways and lost a minimal amount of ground very gradually...
MBS Market Alerts
