Thu, Jun 18 2026, 3:19 PM
Perfectly Acceptable Conclusion to a Potentially Volatile Week
With markets closed for the Juneteenth holida...
Thu, Jun 18 2026, 10:04 AM
Trump officially signed the Iran MOU last night , which helped oil prices and bond yields move a bit lower. Overseas markets also did a decent job dig...
Wed, Jun 17 2026, 5:00 PM
Bonds Tell Warsh What They Think of His Changes
Ironically, one of Warsh's comments in today's press confere...
Wed, Jun 17 2026, 2:00 PM
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release...
Wed, Jun 17 2026, 9:40 AM
So far today, we've seen some war-related headlines that feel like they should have gotten at least a mild response (Trump saying MOU isn't final and ...
Tue, Jun 16 2026, 4:24 PM
Decent Gains, But Some Signs of Resistance
Bonds improved overnight at the start of European trading and mad...
Tue, Jun 16 2026, 11:55 AM
European markets definitely got in on the peace deal action yesterday, but they didn't trade it nearly as aggressively as US markets. Why bring this ...
Mon, Jun 15 2026, 4:15 PM
Gradual Selling Leaves Bonds Only Slightly Stronger.
With both sides signing the peace memo, the market w...
Mon, Jun 15 2026, 10:07 AM
Although at least one article (from BBC) suggested a peace deal had been signed on Friday, the real word appears to be that a signing is scheduled for...
Fri, Jun 12 2026, 3:34 PM
Minimal Deal Drama, But Next Week Could be Different
Various headlines out of Iran pushed back on the not...
Fri, Jun 12 2026, 9:34 AM
Bonds were sideways at first in the overnight session. Then they improved moderately after newswires from Iran's Mehr news agency detailing some speci...
Thu, Jun 11 2026, 4:40 PM
Big Rally After More Forceful Peace Deal Announcement
This morning's commentary noted Trump comments regardi...
Thu, Jun 11 2026, 9:44 AM
Bonds were reasonably stronger in the overnight session with 10yr yields down roughly 4bps from 4.56 to 4.52. About 8 minutes before the PPI data came...
Wed, Jun 10 2026, 4:04 PM
War Headlines Cause Mid-Day Reversal
Bonds started the day inconsequentially weaker and picked up some gains...
Wed, Jun 10 2026, 9:52 AM
Most understand this, but some forget: CPI numbers on econ calendars are not prices. They're the change in prices. We bring that up in case anyone thi...
Tue, Jun 9 2026, 4:38 PM
Bonds End at Strongest Levels
Unlike yesterday, which saw an uneventful open give way to intraday weakness, ...
Tue, Jun 9 2026, 9:51 AM
For the second day in a row , bonds are starting out in modestly stronger territory, but let's hope we don't repeat yesterday's performance. That left...
Mon, Jun 8 2026, 5:18 PM
Bonds Faded in the Afternoon Despite Oil Price Recovery
Oil prices and bond yields started the overnight ses...
Mon, Jun 8 2026, 9:57 AM
Things got a bit worse before they got better over the weekend. 10yr yields were as high as 4.58% in overnight trading, but are now roughly unchanged ...
Fri, Jun 5 2026, 4:42 PM
At Least It Didn't Get Much Worse After The Initial Rout
If you had to find something reassuring to say abou...
Fri, Jun 5 2026, 10:08 AM
Buzz has been growing around the labor market for the past several months, but today's jobs report went the extra mile to make it official. The job ma...
Thu, Jun 4 2026, 4:12 PM
Modest Gains Maintained After Intraday Slippage
Slippage is a bit less severe than leakage. Neither of them ...
Thu, Jun 4 2026, 9:14 AM
The following newswire hit about an hour before the open: TRUMP: US IN THE MIDDLE OF FINAL NEGOTIATIONS TO END IRAN WAR. Bond yields and oil prices h...
Wed, Jun 3 2026, 3:47 PM
Minimal Change After Overnight Volatility
War headlines struck back in the overnight session. Specifically, ...
Wed, Jun 3 2026, 9:13 AM
Iran launched missiles at several U.S. allies yesterday afternoon and oil prices responded accordingly with a move back up to May 22nd levels. Treasur...
Tue, Jun 2 2026, 4:59 PM
Uncommonly Uneventful Day
No one will accuse us of clickbait titles today, or even clickbait analysis. There...
Tue, Jun 2 2026, 10:49 AM
We saw big ticket econ data move the needle a bit last week and have thus been prepared for this week's big ticket reports to have a similar chance to...
Mon, Jun 1 2026, 3:57 PM
Yields End Higher Despite Some Mid-Day Solace
As has been almost constantly the case for the past few months...
Mon, Jun 1 2026, 9:35 AM
Last week's focus for war-related headlines involved various attempts to hone in on just how close we were to a confirmed preliminary peace deal. The ...
Fri, May 29 2026, 4:02 PM
Markets Were Skeptical of Mid-Day Peace Headlines and That Was a Good Instinct
A few hours into the trading ...
Fri, May 29 2026, 10:03 AM
Bonds were flat overnight for a change, with just a bit of 2-way volatility but no notable directional movement. Without any new or interesting war-re...
Thu, May 28 2026, 3:46 PM
Spoiler Alert: Yes, It Was War Headlines
Need a way to explain overnight weakness in the bond market? War he...
Thu, May 28 2026, 9:31 AM
There's a supertanker load of data this morning with some apparently interesting results, but the market remains focused primarily on supertankers bei...
Wed, May 27 2026, 4:03 PM
In a Shocking Twist, Bonds Relive Another Groundhog Day
The present week began on a stronger note thanks to ...
Wed, May 27 2026, 8:50 AM
It seems that we've seen slight variations on the same peace deal news for the past several days. That's probably because there is an actual peace dea...
Tue, May 26 2026, 3:32 PM
Good Reminder That The Market Gets to Decide What Matters
If oil, Treasuries, stocks, and the rest of the ma...
Tue, May 26 2026, 9:35 AM
On Sunday evening, the NYT ran a story that the U.S. and Iran had agreed in principle to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The key distinct...
Fri, May 22 2026, 3:05 PM
Bonds Scratch Out a Win Amid Dueling Headlines
Bonds remain surprisingly willing to react to the most seemin...
Fri, May 22 2026, 8:59 AM
Bonds are starting the session at the best levels of the week with modest overnight gains getting a small boost from news that Pakistan's army chief (...
Thu, May 21 2026, 4:05 PM
Peace Deal Rumors Make For Mid-Day Reversal
Bonds started the day in fairly forgettable and slightly weaker ...
Thu, May 21 2026, 9:19 AM
Bonds spent most of the overnight session moving sideways to slightly stronger, but everything changed at 6:20am. That's when news broke regarding a s...
Wed, May 20 2026, 4:19 PM
Full Reversal And Then Some
Bonds more than made up from Tuesday's rout with a massive rally on Wednesday. U...
Wed, May 20 2026, 10:24 AM
Tuesday's massive wave of bond-specific weakness still has the analytical community scratching its collective head. Our contacts are either saying not...
Tue, May 19 2026, 4:57 PM
Whales Making Waves in Treasury Futures
Nerd alert: there's no way to discuss what happened in the bond mark...
Tue, May 19 2026, 9:40 AM
Ever since the initial 2 week ceasefire was announced in the Iran war, the bond market has adhered to trend channels that align with either de-escalat...
Mon, May 18 2026, 4:18 PM
Bombarded by Headlines, But Little-Changed
Monday's trading session ended up being an exercise in headline-w...
Mon, May 18 2026, 10:36 AM
Bonds began the overnight session by drifting somewhat higher in yield. The 10yr hit 4.63 before recovering modestly just before domestic trading bega...
Fri, May 15 2026, 5:12 PM
Bonds Continued Drifting Weaker Throughout The Day
Nothing new or interesting happened during the course of ...
Fri, May 15 2026, 9:19 AM
Far too many market participants were apparently hoping that some sort of positive news on the war would be somehow facilitated by the Trump/Xi summit...
Thu, May 14 2026, 4:22 PM
Rally Reverses, Leaving Bonds Weaker in The Afternoon
The day began with promise, but devolved into yet anot...
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