Fri, Oct 17 2025, 5:01 PM
Logical Pull-Back on Tamer Tariff Talk, But Mortgages Outperform
If there was only one event to be aware of ...
Fri, Oct 17 2025, 11:53 AM
By process of elimination and ongoing forensic efforts, it's becoming more and more clear that yesterday's mystery rally in the short end of the yield...
Thu, Oct 16 2025, 4:16 PM
Seriously... No One Seems to Know
Today's most prominent feature was a large, rapid move in Fed Funds Future...
Thu, Oct 16 2025, 9:40 AM
There were quite a few economic reports that would have been released this morning were it not for the gov shutdown. OK, well only 3 notable absences...
Wed, Oct 15 2025, 5:32 PM
Fairly Flat At Strongest Levels in Weeks
10yr yields ended the day a mere 0.1bp higher than yesterday (4.029...
Wed, Oct 15 2025, 10:16 AM
Stocks have made a bit of a round trip since last Friday when Trump's tariff comments sparked a big sell-off. Bonds benefited from that at the time. ...
Tue, Oct 14 2025, 5:43 PM
Yields Hug Multi-Week Lows After Powell Speech
Bonds were remarkably resilient over the extended weekend giv...
Tue, Oct 14 2025, 9:59 AM
Bonds are flashing red on the screen (depending on when you look), but even at their weakest levels of the morning, we'd still consider this a stronge...
Fri, Oct 10 2025, 5:43 PM
Markets Rocked by New Tariff Drama
Bonds were already having a decent day this morning with overnight market...
Fri, Oct 10 2025, 9:44 AM
At the start of the week, we noted Japanese political developments as a key reason for overnight losses on Monday morning. This had to do with Takaich...
Thu, Oct 9 2025, 4:05 PM
Uneventful Day; MBS Underperform
It's not uncommon to see MBS outperform their Treasury benchmarks in the ru...
Thu, Oct 9 2025, 9:17 AM
With Jobless Claims on hold due to the shutdown, bonds are forced to endure another data-free morning. The calendar offered a glimmer of hope with a P...
Wed, Oct 8 2025, 3:21 PM
Some Selling Pressure After Auction and Fed Minutes
There were no market-moving economic reports scheduled f...
Wed, Oct 8 2025, 9:33 AM
While there are a smattering of Fed speakers on the calendar today, the morning comments are not likely to have an impact. In fact, the average Fed sp...
Tue, Oct 7 2025, 4:26 PM
Bonds Turn Green After Econ Data and Treasury Auction
Bonds began the day in slightly weaker territory as yi...
Tue, Oct 7 2025, 11:38 AM
10yr yields drifted up toward the 4.20% technical level overnight but buyers showed up at the 8:20am CME open. The initial recovery looks more technic...
Mon, Oct 6 2025, 4:39 PM
Incidental Weakness But No Big Picture Change
There were no economic reports on tap today and no obvious mar...
Mon, Oct 6 2025, 8:57 AM
On paper, it was supposed to have been a sleepy session for bonds with nothing of note on the econ calendar. But in practice, we're seeing one of the ...
Fri, Oct 3 2025, 4:59 PM
Weaker Day, Stronger Week
Friday ended up seeing the bond market give up some ground with most of the weakne...
Fri, Oct 3 2025, 10:12 AM
With NFP on hold due to the shutdown, today's ISM Services was our only chance for for data driven volatility in the 2nd half of the week. A big beat...
Thu, Oct 2 2025, 4:04 PM
Ultra Quiet Session, But Ultimately Stronger
With the day's only relevant econ data on hold due to the shutd...
Thu, Oct 2 2025, 9:45 AM
As a reminder, economic data published by government entities is on hold during the shutdown. Today, that means no Jobless Claims (also no Factory Ord...
Wed, Oct 1 2025, 3:53 PM
Best Closing Levels in More Than a Week, But Still Generally Flat
Short version: bonds have been basically f...
Wed, Oct 1 2025, 8:32 AM
Bonds were already a hair stronger coming into the ADP data, but the results (-32k vs 50k forecast and previous month revised to -3k from 54k) have pr...
Tue, Sep 30 2025, 4:12 PM
Gains Erased by Month/Quarter-End Trading
If it's the last day of a month and especially if it's also the la...
Tue, Sep 30 2025, 11:25 AM
No new news on the probably government shutdown, but betting markets show increased odds, for whatever that's worth. The only reason to watch or care ...
Mon, Sep 29 2025, 5:08 PM
Waiting on Details as Bonds Reinforce The Range
It was a forgettable trading day, but at least slightly stro...
Mon, Sep 29 2025, 10:00 AM
Under normal circumstance, we look forward to the first Friday of any given month as the day that the jobs report takes a swing at sending the stronge...
Fri, Sep 26 2025, 10:36 AM
PCE may be the most relevant inflation report when it comes to assessing progress toward the Fed's 2% target, but it is not the most relevant report t...
Thu, Sep 25 2025, 3:54 PM
Reasonably Resilient After AM Losses
In another straightforward trading session, bonds responded logically t...
Thu, Sep 25 2025, 10:54 AM
It's been a fairly straightforward morning so far with economic data coming out much stronger than expected. While the reports in question are not in...
Wed, Sep 24 2025, 4:06 PM
Weaker Thanks to 2 Kinds of "Supply"
At its core, the bond market is like any other financial market, and se...
Wed, Sep 24 2025, 11:33 AM
It would be an overstatement to say that this week's econ calendar has been "active," but yesterday at least had unscripted comments from Fed Chair Po...
Tue, Sep 23 2025, 4:15 PM
Modestly Stronger After No Whammies From Powell
Last week's press conference with Fed Chair Powell could be ...
Tue, Sep 23 2025, 11:03 AM
Fed Chair Powell speaks today at a chamber of commerce luncheon in Providence. While the venue may not possess the gravitas of last week's press confe...
Mon, Sep 22 2025, 3:47 PM
Slow Burn With Little to Blame
Bonds started out sideways and lost a minimal amount of ground very gradually...
Mon, Sep 22 2025, 11:11 AM
Although the present week brings the release of PCE inflation for August, and although PCE is the most relevant inflation data when it comes to assess...
Fri, Sep 19 2025, 3:31 PM
Uneventfully Sideways At Modestly Weaker Levels
Friday ended up being the least interesting day of the week ...
Fri, Sep 19 2025, 11:23 AM
In your defense, perhaps you're not too bothered or concerned about the market/rate movement since Fed day. But if you are, here's some perspective. W...
Thu, Sep 18 2025, 4:36 PM
Will September Deja Vu Continue?
Rates rallied hard into last September 2024's Fed rate cut and then bounced...
Thu, Sep 18 2025, 9:28 AM
This morning's economic reports (jobless claims and Philly Fed) are not notoriously big market movers, but many analysts gave ample credit to Claims f...
Wed, Sep 17 2025, 4:44 PM
Powell Press Conference Trumps The Dots, Sparking Moderate Sell-Off
Of today's Fed events (rate announcement...
Wed, Sep 17 2025, 2:00 PM
Although swings in net exports continue to affect the data, recent Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first...
Wed, Sep 17 2025, 10:51 AM
The Fed rate announcement is at 2pm ET. A single 25bp rate cut is fully priced in to the bond market and that cut will not be responsible for any vola...
Tue, Sep 16 2025, 4:03 PM
Big Shift Toward 5.0 Coupons Continues
Mortgage rates have lurched rapidly lower in September as 5.0 UMBS ha...
Tue, Sep 16 2025, 10:02 AM
After last week's CPI data was taken mostly in stride, the only other potential economic data hurdle was this morning's Retail Sales report. Whereas C...
Mon, Sep 15 2025, 3:47 PM
Uneventful Rally. Retail Sales on Deck
Bonds began the week on a stronger note, but not for any glaringly ob...
Mon, Sep 15 2025, 11:25 AM
For all the time we spend pushing back on the notion that the Fed Funds Rate is a root cause for volatility in longer-term rates, that push-back alway...
Fri, Sep 12 2025, 3:43 PM
Incidental, Inconsequential Weakness Ahead of Fed Week
Bonds began the day in modestly weaker territory and ...
Fri, Sep 12 2025, 11:11 AM
Bonds began the week with 10yr at 4.07 before rallying down to 4.04 by Monday's close. Now on Friday, we're opening at 4.06 and we haven't spent much...
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