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MBS RECAP: Scary Up Close; Tame in Context

By: Matthew Graham
Posted Thu, Dec 7 2017, 4:52 PM

Bond markets began the day roughly unchanged compared to yesterday afternoon's weaker closing levels.  From there, Treasuries rallied in concert with European bonds and managed to hold the modest gains through the European close.  The implication here is that the net effect of US + European trading was slightly positive for bonds.  Subtracting Europe from the equation led to weakness in US bonds, but we can't take cause and effect for granted.

There were other market movers in play.  These included headlines regarding the government shutdown.  The tone was generally conciliatory--or at least not downright hostile--for both sides of the aisle.  To whatever extent bonds were benefiting from the risk of a government shutdown, these headlines suggested bond market weakness.  One additional fiscal headline may have added to the drama when Bloomberg reported that Trump would release his infrastructure spending plan in January 2018.  In general, government spending is bad for bonds because it implies additional Treasury supply.

With all that out of the way, I would say that none of it much matters in the bigger picture.  As discussed in the Day Ahead, bonds were due for a bounce if they were planning on maintaining the recent range.  In that context, today's weakness wasn't really that severe as it merely returned us to the center of that range.  Moreover, MBS handily outperformed Treasuries, falling only 1/32nd in price by the close (Fannie 3.5).

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
FNMA 3.5
102-27 : -0-02
10 YR
2.3670 : +0.0370
Pricing as of 12/7/17 4:51PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
2:18PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprice Risk Increasing
1:39PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Illiquidity Causing MBS Volatilty; Some Risks Might Materialize
10:38AM  :  Holding Modest Gains But Respecting The Range

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Dan Draitser  :  "I'm goign to take all the tax savings from this bill and buy 1% of 1 BTC"
Dominick Cordone  :  "I'm gonna buy 1 as soon as I save up enough"
Jason Anker  :  "all the money is going to BTC"
Matthew Graham  :  "
MBS Live Alert Issued
Illiquidity Causing MBS Volatilty; Some Risks Might Materialize"
Ira Selwin  :  "FHA loan limits released -"

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