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MBS Day Ahead: Another Potential Head-Fake, Or Turning Point

By: Matthew Graham
Posted Thu, Oct 5 2017, 8:49 AM

Yet again, bond markets have managed to string together 4 days doing something other than selling off abjectly.  Without a firmer push toward lower yields, these strings of days "without pushing toward higher yields" are the first possible signs of a positive reversal.  They're also the least reliable signs of reversal, as seen in mid-September.

As the chart suggests, we've been focusing more on technical indicators like MACD, which give us an easier way to see deeper commitment in a potential reversal.  Simply put, as soon as the bars start moving lower, that's an early positive cue, but it's when they rapidly approach or cross the zero line that we can more confidently bank on a bit more bullishness for bonds.

Inspiration will have to come from something other than economic data today.  Nothing on the calendar is impactful.  Away from economic reports, we do have a few Fed speakers taking the podium today (almost exclusively between 9:10 and 9:30am), but so far this week, Fed speakers haven't been big market movers.

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
FNMA 3.5
103-06 : +0-00
10 YR
2.3229 : -0.0091
Pricing as of 10/5/17 8:48AMEST

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