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Bill Berliner
Exec. V.P.,  Manhattan Capital Markets
5023 N. Parkway Calabasas
Calabasas,  California  91302
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"Ray--the interesting point is that, because 30-year 3s are so low in coupon, that the historical process won't repeat itself (in my view). As I mentioned, banks can't/won't buy them, and there's not enough juice to create interesting structures ("juice" meaning coupon). Re historical data--You can look over time and see how issuance ramps up--as I mentioned, it's increased fairly rapidly in 3.5s. A separate issue is what metric to look at to judge "liquidity"..."    View Comment
"Well, I'm glad I stirred things up a bit. A few comments: *Mr. Kurpinsky--I have Inside Job in my briefcase, and I've heard it's good. I read Chain of Blame and The Big Short--both were very good. *Don--it seems that there's a difference between the percentage of loans that were fraudulent and the percentage of mortgage brokers involved in fraud. Mr. Ceizyk: I don't disagree with everything you say. My point is that the consumers who took the loans should not be absolved of responsibility..."    View Comment
"You raise a relevant point. However, I don't view it as large entities claiming they don't have to follow the laws. What I see happening is that procedures that have been followed for decades are suddenly being brought into question by the army of lawyers looking to stall foreclosures, as well as media members looking for a compelling story. From a legal perspective, in any case, the notes are conveyed to the trust once the contract is signed, not when the notes themselves are delivered...."    View Comment
"A few thoughts on this: 1) Keep in mind that a set of accounting changes are coming that will force the GSEs to consolidate boatloads of assets onto their balance sheets. (Figure that one boatload ~$1trillion, and according to reports they have more than 2 1/2 boatloads to consolidate.) It's unclear what the earnings ramifications are, but the impact will be huge. 2) If the GSEs have to take a big accounting loss in Q1, the amount that the Treasury committed ($200 billion each for FN and FR)..."    View Comment
"My suspicion is that the pop in housing starts represents an aberration (or the proverbial dead-cat bounce). Since the reported numbers are annualized, a few additional properties could skew the numbers a lot higher, particularly off the rock-bottom absolute level of starts. I have a question for the members of this site: why are the MBA's refi indices continuing to show strength in apps for gov't products? Given the extra costs associated with FHA loans, this is perplexing...any thoughts..."    View Comment
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"Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the initial post is confusing the TBA coupon rate for a loan's note rate. 15yr Ginnie 4.5s have "WACs" (Weighted average coupon rates, a bit of a misnomer) 50 basis points higher, or 5%. For a true comparison, you have to take this into account. E.g., right now Fannie 4.5s are trading in the high pars for April settlement, which means that a 5% loan (after fees and such) would be around a zero-point rate. Also, 15-year Ginnies and 20-year pools..."    View Post
"Generally, yes, but keep in mind that there are two Ginnie Mae pooling programs. Ginnie Is (the larger of the two) always carry loans with note rates 50 basis points over the coupon rate. Ginnie II pools don't have this limitation."    View Post
"Interesting thought...keep in mind, though, that "deliverability" (i.e., what loans can be included in a pool that's deliverable into a TBA forward transaction) is disctated by SIFMA, which represents the dealer community (which in turn listens closely to their customers). Investors are really sensitive to anything that will change the prepayment characteristics of deliverable pools. Mortgage bankers would love to change deliverability to include more products, but the street has vetoed..."    View Post
"I'm certain the GSEs were buying virtually all of the production last year. They couldn't be included in deliverable pools at all last year, and the jumbo conforming pools (I don't remember the exact ticker, but they have one) were trading 2 pts back of Fannies. 10% rule only went into effect as of 1/1/09 for loans originated after 10/1/08. So it may just be that the system got clogged becuase of the 10% rule after the pop in applications last month. If so, suggests that the 'suck..."    View Post
"Sorry, did not see the "conf jumbo" in your post when I jumped in. I looked at the Fannie loan-level price adjustments that were posted in December, and the add-ons for jumbo-conforming loans have stayed about the same since last year. Before the 10% rule went into effect, jumbo-conforming loans couldn't be delivered at all into pools, but the GSEs were buying them for portfolio at the same (or approximately the same) price as conforming loans, which pushed the spreads last spring down..."    View Post
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