Magic 8 ball says.......future unclear.

Normally rates go up during the summer months due to inflation, but this is not a normal year and most of the trends need to be thrown out the door.  We had the lowest rates of the year at the end of April, and traditionally, rates would have been going up by this time.

Look for big headlines. 

Economic recovery = higher rates

Inflation = Higher Rates

Strong Stock Market = Possible Higher Rates

Weaker Stock Market = Lower Rates

Fed Easing on current monetary policy = higher rates

There are so many factors, it is really hard to say what is going to happen.  A lot of the models have been wrong throughout this year and many predictions have been incorrect.  Rates are very low right now and if you are waiting for them to go lower, you stand the chance of missing out.  If they do go up, would you be kicking yourself for holding out or is worth risk to wait?  Check out the blogs above for good analysis on shorter term trends and an ocassional long term outlook.

I agree with Eric, you just don't know in this market exactly how rates will react.  This is a great time to refinance and people should take advantage of it.  You don't want to be sitting around years from now and kicking yourself for passing up on locking into a fixed rate in the 4s.  People, it wasn't that long ago that rates were 1.5-2% higher than they have been for the last 5 months!

You said 'feel' so I think I can safely offer my subjective opinion to this question : )

If by lower, you mean rates trickling down an 1/8th or a 1/4 percent, sure. On any given day depending on the headlines and investor confidence, they might. However, these are the lowest rates I have ever experienced and so my gut feeling is that, towards the end of the year, we'll start to see them increase. Look, the fed's MBS purchasing program expires at the end of this year and so unless they continue it, which they might, they need to start 'easing' rates higher to take some of the shock out of it. 

If I were you I wouldn't even be thinking twice about locking a rate in this market. You'd be foolish to gamble with the possibility it could slip a little more.

Good news is that with people selling off their treasuries to jump back into the Dow, rates haven't increased too much.  So when they reverse the trend and come back to MBS, rates might go down a little.  From the looks of it, they probably won't go up too much, and they probably won't go down too much, so rates look like they should stay around this range for a bit.  Which if you compare to last year at this time = JACKPOT!!!!!