Instead of one big "it that shall not be named"....will there be several mini waves of borrower refinancing?

Thoughts?

Yes, I've already have several 'mini-waves'...with 4.625/4.75 0 points at the low end of the range and 5.0/ 5.125 0 points at the high end of the range.  I read up on Eliott waves back in November and have been timing my locks for the bottom end of the 'trading range'.  This week is looking like a re-test of the lows/MBS/rates is in the cards.  Lender pipelines will fill to over-capacity, phones will ring off the hook, but I expect only a couple of days of rates at the bottom if the range.  Anyway, that's been my strategy fo the last 2-3 months.

I thinks several mini waves leading up to a protracted period of historically low rates.

It makes sense for the big players to manipulate thier gain on sale to ensure many mini waves as opposed to a boom. Although it is frustrating on my end knowing I could be writing more loans if the passed down what is due...  Do they really want to hire, train, and insure employees with a limited shelf life?

No question about it. Several mini waves until the rates get low enough to be capped.

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I also believe in the miniwave theory.  Lenders are conciously watching their pipelines and turn times.  Mini rate drops cause mini waves.

Miniwaves completely driven by bank/lender pipeline management. By manipulating rate sheets and broker/lender perception banks/lenders can get people to float & lock pretty much at will with movements up or down.  That's going to drive the refi waves.

Now for the rest of us on MBS Watch and in the MBS War Room who see what's going on their sly maneuvers won't work.  But for the other 98% of the broker market it will.

I'm all for that long protracted low rate period Matt mentioned though.

I also agree with the miniwave theory.  Another reason lenders are trying to control volumes is capital.  Whether a bank or using warehouse lines, everyone needs cash and there is very little in the market.  So, they are controlling pipelines to make sure they do not overrun their capacity and blow up.