It was a perfectly fine day for mortgage rates to start the new week. The underlying bond market improved modestly, drawing on a combination of sharply lower oil prices and another drop in tech-related stocks.

While it's true that oil prices haven't had a reliable impact on bonds/rates over the past month, today's drop was big enough that is probably helped to some extent, especially when we consider some headwinds created by updated borrowing estimates released by the U.S. Treasury today.

Once per quarter, Treasury updates estimated Treasury auction amounts. Treasuries are the foundation of almost all interest rates in the U.S. When supply increases or demand falls, it puts downward pressure on prices and upward pressure on rates, all else equal.

Today's upward pressure was fairly modest, but still noticeable. Mortgage lenders played it fairly safe by setting today's rates perfectly in line with last Friday's. That makes today tied for the lowest 30yr fixed level since September 23rd, 2026.