Mortgage Rates Predictions and Analysis

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The Real Story Behind The Past 2 Weeks of Mortgage Rate Volatility

Mortgage Rates Continue Healing, But Remain Well Above Recent...

Mortgage Rates Find Some Support After an Ugly Start

Rates Rising at Fastest Pace in Months

Have We Seen The End of Record Low Rates?

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Improvements in Forbearance Continue to Slow

Freddie Sees Mortgage Originations Contracting Nearly 20% in...

Post-2008 Standardized Practices Have Helped Manage Forbearances

Retail, Ops Jobs; Appraisal, Non-QM, Jumbo, DPA Products; Industry...

MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Not Threatened By Stimulus; Consolidation...

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Real Story Behind Rate Volatility; Slower Forbearance Improvement; Origination Forecast

Published: 1/15/2021

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What The Fed's Emergency Rate Cut Means For Mortgage Rates

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by Matthew Graham on March 15 2020, 5:45 PM

There are a lot of words here. If you have a mortgage you might ever refinance (and especially if you think Sunday's emergency Fed news means you can now get a lower rate), read every last one of them. Background: Fed's Emergency Rate Cut and QE It's...
Just When You Thought We Were Done Talking About All-Time Lows

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by Matthew Graham on June 12 2020, 4:54 PM

Mortgage rates plunged well into new all-time lows this week, which is a striking turn of events given the vastly different outlook at the end of last week. Specifically, a series of strong economic reports led to significant losses in the bond market...
Agencies Drop a Bomb; Your Refi Just Got Much More Expensive!

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by Matthew Graham on August 12 2020, 9:04 PM

In what can only be described as a cash grab, Fannie and Freddie just announced a new tax on refinances. Granted, it's not technically a tax, and it wasn't probably even intended to hit the pocketbooks of the American homeowner, but that's unfortunately...
The MOST Volatile Day For Mortgages

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by Matthew Graham on March 19 2020, 5:42 PM

Today was the most volatile day in the history of the mortgage market in many regards. There were days in the early 80's that saw rates move by similar amounts, but none of them saw the underlying market for mortgage bonds move back and forth by such...
Mortgage Rates Rising at Fastest Pace in Years

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by Matthew Graham on March 11 2020, 4:46 PM

Mortgage rates continued a relentless surge higher today. The move began in earnest yesterday for two key reasons: bond market panic and mortgage market over-supply. If you take nothing else away from the following, the important part to understand is...
Mortgage Rates Are Taking an Utter Beating (Relatively)

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by Matthew Graham on March 12 2020, 9:16 PM

In all my years of following mortgage rates I haven't seen anything quite like the current environment. 2008 came fairly close, but the vibe was decidedly different. Rates were far from all-time lows back then. When they moved to the lowest levels in...
Mortgage Rates Higher Following Employment Report

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by Matthew Graham on February 03 2012, 3:01 PM

The monthly Employment Situation Report was released at 8:30am this morning, with much better-than-expected results. Stocks rallied sharply and most every interest rate in fixed-income markets moved higher. The economic optimism created by this sort of...
Mortgage Rates Continue Unprecedented Surge Higher

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by Matthew Graham on June 24 2013, 5:16 PM

Mortgage rates finally lost less ground than they have over the past few business days. The problem is that this still left room for rates to go higher at a much faster pace than normal. Some borrowers will have seen their quoted rate move up another...
Among The Worst Days in Mortgage Rate History

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by Matthew Graham on July 05 2013, 5:23 PM

Historical data has its limitations when it comes to mortgage rates . For instance, the longest-running series are only updated once a week, making it hard to determine exactly where an individual day falls in the record books. Even then, today's rise...
NO, You Can't Get That New 0% Mortgage Rate You Heard About

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by Matthew Graham on March 16 2020, 5:40 PM

Lots of words recently and lots to do for all of us, so let's make this simple. No, you can't get a that new 0% mortgage rate you heard about! It doesn't exist. That's the Fed Funds Rate. It applies to overnight loans between the biggest financial institutions...
Best-Execution Mortgage Rates Rise After Extended Period of Stability

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by Matthew Graham on January 23 2012, 3:12 PM

For the first time in over a month, the Best-Execution rate for 30yr fixed mortgages rose from a rounded average of 3.875% to 4.00% today. The underlying borrowing costs associated with 3.875% didn't rise by a significantly painful amount, but the small...
Mortgage Rate Rules Are Completely Out The Window

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by Matthew Graham on December 04 2020, 5:53 PM

Mortgage loans ultimately "turn into" bonds and those bonds have a certain value to investors. When those values change, so do the rates offered by mortgage lenders. This is basically a hard and fast rule. But it's completely out the window right now...
Why Did Mortgage Rates Skyrocket Past 2013 Highs on Wednesday?

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by Matthew Graham on May 22 2013, 6:10 PM

Mortgage rates were utterly destroyed today. Not only did the average rate move above the highest seen in 2013, but rates haven't been this high since May 22nd of 2012! Of course, there's the "everything's relative" perspective, whereby we can attempt...
Nightmare for Mortgage Rates: Way Worse Than Freddie Told You

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by Matthew Graham on June 21 2013, 5:49 PM

Freddie Mac was out yesterday with the industry's most commonly cited benchmark for weekly rate movements, but it's important to know that this is an average that's tallied through Wednesday . By the time the survey results are out, the Mortgage rate...
Mortgage Rates Annihilated; Brief History of All-Time Lows

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by Matthew Graham on June 19 2013, 8:32 PM

Mortgage rates have seen better days . If the past 2 months of calamitous volatility and almost daily cost hikes weren't enough, today brings the Conventional 30yr Fixed best-execution rate to 4.25% --levels not seen since late 2011. A move of this magnitude...

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