Mortgage Rates Predictions and Analysis

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Victory For Rates; Hope For Housing Inventory?

Mortgage Rates Lowest in Nearly a Month

Another Tentatively Decent Day For Rates

Mortgage Rate Outlook May Be Improving

Who's Lying About The Housing Market?

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Victory For Rates; Hope For Housing Inventory?

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by Matthew Graham on April 09 2021, 7:26 PM

2021 hasn't been a great year for mortgage rates--at least not as far as their trajectory is concerned. But that could be changing . Even if things don't get any better from here, the past 3 weeks are collectively the best we've seen since January. Mortgage...
Mortgage Rates Lowest in Nearly a Month

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by Matthew Graham on April 08 2021, 4:02 PM

Mortgage Rates had another decent day on Thursday with the average lender offering modestly better terms compared to yesterday. Improvements continue to arrive in fairly small doses, but they've been adding up . You'd have to go back nearly a month to...
Another Tentatively Decent Day For Rates

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by Matthew Graham on April 07 2021, 4:33 PM

Mortgage Rates have been doing pretty well so far in April. They bounced at long-term highs on March 31st (matching the highs from 2 weeks prior), but have been descending gently since then. Today's move was definitely modest. The average borrower wouldn...
Mortgage Rate Outlook May Be Improving

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by Matthew Graham on April 06 2021, 4:25 PM

Things have been bad for mortgage rates in 2021. That assertion has nothing to do with the outright level of mortgage rates--indeed, that's still very low historically--and everything to do with the pace and duration of the rate spike. Like many things...
Who's Lying About The Housing Market?

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by Matthew Graham on April 02 2021, 2:15 PM

The housing market is heating and cooling at the same time, depending on the data in question. Who's telling the truth? Actually, maybe everyone... According to home price appreciation, the market is on fire . FHFA and Case Shiller (2 of the main home...
Another Decent Day For Mortgage Rates

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by Matthew Graham on April 01 2021, 4:12 PM

Mortgage rates have been trying to find a ceiling in the past 3 weeks after rising at the quickest pace in years. That search seemed to be going well until late last week when rates failed to break below the floor that's blocked other recent attempts...
Mortgage Rates Back Near Long-Term Highs

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by Matthew Graham on March 31 2021, 4:39 PM

Mortgage rates moved moderately higher today after failing to capitalize on a hopeful move in bond markets yesterday. Bonds--particularly mortgage-backed bonds--are directly responsible for most of the day-to-day movement in mortgage rates, and they've...
Mortgage Rates Snap Back to Recent Highs Before Recovering

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by Matthew Graham on March 30 2021, 3:50 PM

There are a few interesting developments for mortgage rates today--especially in light of last week's striking discrepancy between Freddie's weekly survey and the reality on the front lines. Specifically, the Freddie survey finally did a bit more to catch...
Rates Catch a Break. Will it Last? What's The Impact on Housing?

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by Matthew Graham on March 26 2021, 5:14 PM

The biggest story for the mortgage and housing market so far in 2021 has been the big spike in mortgage rates. It has been more abrupt and covered more ground than all but the worst historical examples. That said, it was always going to happen when the...
Mortgage Rates Are Actually LOWER This Week

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by Matthew Graham on March 25 2021, 2:52 PM

It's no secret that 2021 has been a rough year for mortgage rates so far. They've moved higher on all but a few weeks, and exclusively higher if we only count the past 8 weeks (something that hasn't happened in more than a decade , even though there are...
Mortgage Rates Lowest in Nearly 2 Weeks

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by Matthew Graham on March 24 2021, 4:30 PM

Mortgage rates put in their 3rd decent performance of the week today amid relatively calm conditions in the underlying bond market. These sorts of winning streaks have been in short supply in 2021--especially since February. Lender pricing was also fairly...
Mortgage Rates Lowest in Nearly a Week

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by Matthew Graham on March 23 2021, 4:14 PM

Mortgage rates moved lower at a decent pace today for the 2nd day in a row. The average lender is still offering the same "note rate" compared to yesterday, but the costs associated with that rate are lower. In other words, "effective rates" (a synthetic...
Mortgage Rates End Week Near 1-Year Highs

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by Matthew Graham on March 19 2021, 7:04 PM

Today ended up being fairly uneventful for mortgage rates --a welcome reprieve in the context of recent volatility. Actually, "volatility" is putting it mildly. 2021 has been a total rout for longer-term rates, even if 30yr fixed mortgages in the low...
Watch Out For Fake Mortgage Rate News

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by Matthew Graham on March 18 2021, 4:48 PM

Despite your thoughts on the term "fake news," we have to talk about it in the context of mortgage rates . It's highly pertinent, even if deception is far from the intention. Thursday is a big day for mortgage rate news because that's when Freddie Mac...
Mortgage Rates End High After Starting Day Higher

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by Matthew Graham on March 17 2021, 4:39 PM

Mortgage rates started the day in bad shape after significant bond market weakness overnight. Treasury yields rose roughly 0.05%, and that sort of move typically coincides with mortgage rates rising nearly as much. Today wasn't much of an exception. The...

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