Mortgage Rates Predictions and Analysis

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Rates Recover Modestly, But Uncertainty Remains

Mortgage Rates' Week Goes From Bad to Worse

Worst Week For Mortgage Rates Since 2016

Mortgage Steady at Recent Highs

Mortgage Rates Highest in More Than a Month

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Rates Recover Modestly, But Uncertainty Remains Ahead of Fed Day

Published: 9/16/2019

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Rates Recover Modestly, But Uncertainty Remains

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by Matthew Graham on September 16 2019, 4:48 PM

Mortgage rates closed out their worst week since 2016 on Friday as the bond market underwent a classic correction after its best month since 2011. The bigger and more sustained a drop in rates, the bigger the potential correction. There were, however...
Mortgage Rates' Week Goes From Bad to Worse

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by Matthew Graham on September 13 2019, 3:17 PM

Mortgage rates were already having their worst week since 2016 as of yesterday afternoon. Rather than help to heal some of the damage, today's bond market momentum only made things worse . Whether we're looking at 10yr Treasury yields a broad indicator...
Worst Week For Mortgage Rates Since 2016

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by Matthew Graham on September 12 2019, 5:21 PM

Mortgage rates didn't have a great day today, moving even higher from what were already the worst levels in a month as of yesterday afternoon. In and of itself, this single day wasn't any more dramatic than the average "bad day," but taken together with...
Mortgage Steady at Recent Highs

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by Matthew Graham on September 11 2019, 5:04 PM

Mortgage rates were roughly unchanged today for the average lender as underlying bond markets finally calmed down. Over the past few days, bond yields have been rising quickly, effectively correcting from the lowest levels in more than 3 years. The same...
Mortgage Rates Highest in More Than a Month

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by Matthew Graham on September 10 2019, 5:38 PM

Mortgage rates and the broader bond market are both in the midst of a correction after hitting the best levels in more than 3 years last week. This is a correction that many market watchers were worried about on several occasions in August. But every...
Mortgage Rates Moving Quickly Higher

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by Matthew Graham on September 09 2019, 5:25 PM

Mortgage rates moved higher today at the fastest pace in several months today. The underlying bond market (which dictates rates) was merely hinting at a corrective bounce by the end of last week. After today's moves, bonds are shouting their corrective...
Mortgage Rates Hold Steady

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by Matthew Graham on September 06 2019, 4:58 PM

Mortgage rates held steady today, which is a victory in light of yesterday's big jump higher. Part of that jump was due to fear that today's jobs report would strike a similar tone to some of this week's other economic reports. That would have been a...
Mortgage Rates Are Higher (Not Lower) Versus Last Week

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by Matthew Graham on September 05 2019, 3:50 PM

Mortgage rates walked back a decent chunk of their recent improvements today. This claim runs counter to almost any other coverage you'll see, but I'm right and they're wrong. Actually to be fair, I'm right in a timely way and they're right in a not-so...
How Low Can Mortgage Rates Go?

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by Matthew Graham on September 04 2019, 6:09 PM

Mortgage rates are on a tear . In the bigger picture, 2019 has been the best year in more than a decade. Only 2002 was arguably on the same level in terms of the move from peak to trough. If we include late 2018's higher rates the overall move is now...
Mortgage Rates Set Another Long-Term Low

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by Matthew Graham on September 03 2019, 5:05 PM

Mortgage rates had to endure some paradoxical momentum and delayed reaction to the broader bond market rally lately, but now, it's payback time! Not only have mortgagees been able to move lower over the past 4 days, but they've done so even as Treasury...
Yes, Mortgage Rates are Lower and 10yr Yields are Higher Today

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by Matthew Graham on August 29 2019, 4:12 PM

Two days ago, I wrote an article entitled " No, Mortgage Rates Aren't Based on 10yr Treasury Yields ." It's worth a read if you're not already up to speed on why that's a true statement. It also paves the way to understand why today's headline can be...
Mortgage Rates Back in Line With 3 Year Lows

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by Matthew Graham on August 28 2019, 5:49 PM

Mortgage rates moved lower today as MBS (the mortgage-backed securities that determine the value of mortgages on the secondary market) improved relative to US Treasuries. That's NOT a common occurrence recently! When Treasury yields have moved quickly...
No, Mortgage Rates Aren't Based on 10yr Treasury Yields

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by Matthew Graham on August 27 2019, 5:23 PM

Mortgage rates have been putting on a rather frustrating and exciting show in the month of August. On the one hand, they're at or near their lowest levels in 3 years. On the other hand, they're not nearly as low as you'd expect them to be based on movement...
Mortgage Rates Mixed Versus Friday, Depending on Lender

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by Matthew Graham on August 26 2019, 4:06 PM

Mortgage rates are sort of all over the place at the moment, and almost never where you'd expect. Those who haven't been following the bond market too closely generally expect higher rates than what we've been seeing recently. Those who are well-versed...
Mortgage Rates Recover as Trade Tensions Reignite

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by Matthew Graham on August 23 2019, 5:33 PM

Mortgage rates were noticeably higher through yesterday afternoon as the bond market had generally been bouncing back from the more extreme levels achieved last week. Markets approached today's Jackson Hole symposium with open minds as to the potential...

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