Mortgage Rates Predictions and Analysis

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The Real Story Behind The Past 2 Weeks of Mortgage Rate Volatility

Mortgage Rates Continue Healing, But Remain Well Above Recent...

Mortgage Rates Find Some Support After an Ugly Start

Rates Rising at Fastest Pace in Months

Have We Seen The End of Record Low Rates?

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Fannie/Freddie Allowed to Keep More Capital (Again)

Refinancing Volume Pulls Back as Rates Rise

MBS RECAP: Uneventful Start This Week; Next Move Remains Debatable

Biden Nominates Two Picks for Important Financial Positions

IT, AE Jobs; Jumbo, Origination, Productivity Tools; Thoughts...

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Biden Nominates Two Picks for Important Financial Positions; Uneventful Start For Bonds This Week

Published: 1/19/2021

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Mortgage Rates Roughly Unchanged Today. Tomorrow Could be a Different Story

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by Matthew Graham on October 06 2020, 4:20 PM

After falling moderately to start the week, mortgage rates put in a calmer performance on Tuesday. As we discussed yesterday, volatility in the bond market results in lenders making changes to their mortgage rate offerings. Sometimes the volatility is...
Mortgage Rates Under Pressure as Market Volatility Picks Up

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by Matthew Graham on October 05 2020, 4:14 PM

Mortgage rates have been spoiled, relatively, by an extraordinarily calm/narrow trading pattern in the bond market. That's important because the bond market directly affects the day to day changes in mortgage rates. A narrow/calm trading pattern means...
Rates Ignore Trump's Covid Diagnosis. Has The Bond Market Gone Crazy?

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by Matthew Graham on October 02 2020, 8:00 PM

After weeks of incredibly subdued volatility, the bond market (which dictates rates) is starting to show some signs of life, but not for the same old reasons. Inflation? Inflation is one of the oldest and most significant reasons to freak out about interest...
Low Rates Forever? Not Exactly, But The Word "Indefinitely" Sounds Better All The Time

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by Matthew Graham on October 01 2020, 5:28 PM

Mortgage rates were mixed today, depending on the lender. The underlying bond market (which dictates day to day changes in rates) has been more volatile in the past 48 hours compared to the past 4 weeks. Mortgage lenders respond to this volatility in...
The Market That Drives Mortgage Rates Just Had Its Worst Day in Weeks

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by Matthew Graham on September 30 2020, 4:38 PM

Mortgage rates don't just magically appear . Lenders don't choose them arbitrarily. To sustain the pace and scope of the mortgage market in the US (and indeed of most any debt), the cost of money over time has to be carefully considered before a lender...
Mortgage Rates Still Sideways to Slightly Lower

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by Matthew Graham on September 29 2020, 3:59 PM

The average mortgage lender continues to offer top tier conventional 30yr fixed rates in the "high 2% to low 3%" neighborhood. Exactly where any given quote will reside in that neighborhood depends on several factors. The most important of those is the...
Stellar Housing Data; Rates Inching Lower

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by Matthew Graham on September 25 2020, 3:50 PM

Mortgage Rate Update Considering this week's generally positive drift in rates, we shouldn't expect lenders to get less busy any time soon. In recent weeks, there's been a sense that mortgage pricing seems just a little bit "off" compared to expectations...
Mortgage Rates in Drift Mode

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by Matthew Graham on September 23 2020, 4:16 PM

Mortgage rates didn't do much today. The average lender was effectively unchanged from yesterday. The same could be said yesterday, and the day before that, and so on and so on... The only major adjustment to rates in recent weeks has been the abrupt...
Refresher on The New Refi Fee and Its Effect on Mortgage Rates

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by Matthew Graham on September 22 2020, 4:55 PM

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are the two government sponsored agencies that guarantee timely payment of principal and interest to the investors who front the money that finances the American mortgage market. This guarantee means that more investors are...
Here's What The Fed's 0% Rate Outlook Means For Mortgages and Housing

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by Matthew Graham on September 18 2020, 5:38 PM

Mortgage rates are most influenced by the bond market and the bond market is most influenced by the Federal Reserve (aka "The Fed"). So when the Fed says it expects rates to be "zero" at least until the end of 2023, does the same go for mortgage rates...
Mortgage Rates Vary Widely--Nothing To Do With The Fed

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by Matthew Graham on September 17 2020, 4:56 PM

Yesterday's policy announcement from the Federal Reserve had a chance to cause significant volatility for the bond market and the bond market is the chief ingredient in the mortgage rate equation. But this time around, the Fed didn't cause a measurable...
What Will The Fed Do to Mortgage Rates?

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by Matthew Graham on September 15 2020, 4:21 PM

What will the Fed do to mortgage rates ? This is actually a bit of a trick question . The Fed doesn't set mortgage rates. The Fed's policy rate applies to overnight loans between large financial institutions. The only way it directly influences mortgage...
Getting a Mortgage Soon? Read This Now!

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by Matthew Graham on September 11 2020, 5:10 PM

If you're in the mortgage process currently or if you will be soon, there is a tremendously important development to be aware of. The net effect is that rates are about to go up and, in some cases, they already have . The culprit is the new "adverse market...
No, Mortgage Rates Are Definitely Not Back to All-Time Lows!

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by Matthew Graham on September 10 2020, 6:03 PM

It's Thursday and thus time, once again, for the weekly mortgage rate survey from Freddie Mac. News organizations and even some bond market strategists (sadly) rely on Freddie's weekly update for a sense of mortgage rate movement. That's why an overwhelming...
Mortgage Rates Staying Fairly Steady

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by Matthew Graham on September 09 2020, 3:44 PM

Mortgage rates haven't moved much so far this week and they were surprisingly steady at the end of last week despite volatility in the underlying bond market. What does the bond market have to do with rates? Typically everything! But times are a bit different...

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