Mortgage Rates Predictions and Analysis

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Mortgage Rates Face Volatility Thanks to an Old Friend

Mortgage Rates Little-Changed Near Recent Highs

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Big Jump in Mortgage Rates This Week

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Single Family Construction Improves, Multi-Family Not So Much; Brexit Brings Volatility Risk to Rates

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Mortgage Rates Fight to Remain at Week's Best Levels

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by Matthew Graham on July 19 2019, 8:04 PM

Mortgage rates Moved just slightly lower today, despite some push back from underlying bond markets. Typically, weakness in the bond market (like the kind we saw today) corresponds to rising rates--even if only a modest amount. The compensating factor...
Mortgage Rates Lowest This Week Despite Stronger Economic Data

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by Matthew Graham on July 18 2019, 5:37 PM

Economic data and mortgage rate movement go hand in hand. A stronger economy puts upward pressure on rates. A contracting economy helps rates move lower. While this is far from the only source of inspiration, it's indirectly linked to other major sources...
Mortgage Rates Drop as Bond Gains Accelerate

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by Matthew Graham on July 17 2019, 5:27 PM

Mortgage rates improved today, depending on the lender and the time of day! Underlying bond markets were only modestly stronger in the morning. As such, the average lender only offered modest improvements over yesterday's rates at first. But as the day...
Mortgage Rates Under Modest Pressure After Retail Sales Data

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by Matthew Graham on July 16 2019, 4:34 PM

Mortgage rates were flat to slightly higher today, following a stronger-than-expected Retail Sales report. The bond market (which dictates mortgage rates) was eagerly awaiting the week's first major economic data. Even though the Fed will almost certainly...
Mortgage Rates Little-Changed Despite Bond Market Gains

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by Matthew Graham on July 15 2019, 4:18 PM

Mortgage rates were mostly flat to begin the new week, even though underlying bond markets were in stronger territory. Bonds, more than anything else, dictate the day-to-day direction for mortgage rates. That said, there are different varieties of bonds...
Highest Mortgage Rates in More Than 3 Weeks

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by Matthew Graham on July 12 2019, 5:56 PM

Mortgage rates moved decisively higher this week as the underlying bond market finally began shifting gears. After the Fed meeting in June, rates moved to the lowest levels in more than 2 years and had been holding in a narrow range since then. The risks...
Mortgage Rates Mixed Follow Fed Chair Testimony

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by Matthew Graham on July 10 2019, 2:31 PM

Mortgage rates were mixed today following the much-anticipated congressional testimony by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Although these testimonies are regularly scheduled events (twice a year), they can offer important insights into the evolution of thought...
Mortgage Rates Higher Ahead of Powell Testimony

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by Matthew Graham on July 09 2019, 3:07 PM

Mortgage rates rose today, largely in response to weakness in the bond market seen yesterday afternoon (and confirmed this morning). Mortgage rates follow the bond market, but mortgage lenders don't like to adjust their offerings more than once a day...
Mortgage Rates Under Some Pressure

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by Matthew Graham on July 08 2019, 5:28 PM

Mortgage rates began the day in slightly lower territory compared to last Friday afternoon, but they'd risen noticeably from Wednesday to Friday. The recovery seen this morning wasn't enough to get them back in line with Wednesday's levels. To make matters...
Mortgage Rates Bounce Higher After Jobs Report

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by Matthew Graham on July 05 2019, 5:11 PM

Mortgage rates moved higher today following higher-than-expected job creation in a report from the Labor Department. The Employment Situation (aka "the jobs report") is the most important monthly economic report. That's especially true for interest rates...
Mortgage Rates Drop to New Long-Term Lows Ahead of Friday's Jobs Report

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by Matthew Graham on July 03 2019, 2:19 PM

Mortgage rates fell at a moderate pace today. As expected, the lenders who hadn't gotten around to improving during yesterday's bond market rally (stronger bonds = lower rates) were the most improved. But there was even solid improvement from other lenders...
Mortgage Rates Edging Lower Ahead of Potential Volatility

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by Matthew Graham on July 02 2019, 3:33 PM

Mortgage rates moved down today by varying amounts depending on the lender. In some cases, lenders weren't offering much of an improvement over yesterday. Those lenders are more likely to improve tomorrow, or at least we can say they'll be starting with...
Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher to Begin Risky Week

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by Matthew Graham on July 01 2019, 5:30 PM

Mortgage rates were slightly higher to start the new week, which is a pretty good outcome considering the underlying events. On Friday, we anticipated a pick-up in volatility as rates were at risk of reacting to any meaningful trade news from the G20...
Rates Face Big Volatility Risk Next Week

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by Matthew Graham on June 28 2019, 12:59 PM

Mortgage rates enjoyed a pleasantly flat week despite some volatility in the underlying bond market. The day-to-day changes in Treasuries and Mortgage-Backed-Securities (MBS) were noticeable, but they all took place inside the range of values seen last...
Mortgage Rates Edge Lower to Remain in Recent Range

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by Matthew Graham on June 27 2019, 4:19 PM

Mortgage rates rose to the week's highest levels yesterday, but they moved back down today . Although there have been slightly better days over the past 2 weeks, today's improvement is enough to keep rates in the best territory since November 2016. For...

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