Mortgage Rates Predictions and Analysis

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Victory For Rates; Hope For Housing Inventory?

Mortgage Rates Lowest in Nearly a Month

Another Tentatively Decent Day For Rates

Mortgage Rate Outlook May Be Improving

Who's Lying About The Housing Market?

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Mortgage Rates Inch Up To Another Long-Term High Ahead of The Fed

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by Matthew Graham on March 16 2021, 4:08 PM

Mortgage rates rose moderately today, depending on the lender. It's worth noting that lender pricing is exceptionally widely stratified at the moment. In other words, some lenders made big moves today while others did not. Disparity between lenders is...
Highest Rates in a Year; Big Drama For Investment Property Loans

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by Matthew Graham on March 12 2021, 6:12 PM

Rising rate headlines are nothing new, but there was a bit of a double whammy this week... or triple, depending on your point of view. Whammy 1: Highest Rates in a Year It's March 2021, and you'd now have to go back to March 2020 to see higher mortgage...
Much Less Volatile Week, But Mortgage Rates Remain Elevated

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by Matthew Graham on March 11 2021, 3:50 PM

Mortgage rates improved microscopically today as the underlying bond market stayed uncharacteristically steady. Since the beginning of 2021, bonds have been exceptionally volatile with yields moving higher and prices moving lower. That's a recipe for...
Mortgage Rates Modestly Lower, But Hoping For More

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by Matthew Graham on March 09 2021, 4:15 PM

At this point, no one should be surprised to hear that mortgage rates have moved significantly higher in 2021--especially in the past few weeks. There are several reasons for this, but the easiest way to make sense of it all is to say "rates were ultra...
Rates Rising Relentlessly, But Why? And When Will They Stop?

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by Matthew Graham on March 05 2021, 5:27 PM

Interest rates can't seem to catch a break. February was one of only a handful of months in the past 2 decades that resulted in a 0.50% mortgage rate spike. Despite hopes to the contrary, March isn't off to a great start either. Paradoxically, this rate...
Mortgage Rates Surge After Powell Comments

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by Matthew Graham on March 04 2021, 5:27 PM

Mortgage rates jumped quickly today after Q&A session with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. What did he say to cause such drama? Actually, it's more about what he didn't say. For some reason, market participants were expecting (or at least hoping...
Mortgage Rates Finally Catching a Break

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by Matthew Graham on March 02 2021, 4:40 PM

In the past 2 decades , there have been 6 months where mortgage rates rose at least 50 basis points. February 2021 was one of them. Moreover, it was one of only 2 of those months where rates rose without obvious provocation from a significant new, unexpected...
Brutal Week For Rates But There's Hope (Hopefully)

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by Matthew Graham on February 26 2021, 5:49 PM

Rising rates have been on the menu for months, but the drama kicked into a higher gear this week. Maybe you heard about this? We've certainly been discussing it in recent newsletters ( especially last week's ). The rising rate narrative hit the mainstream...
Mortgage Rates Are Now Well Over 3 Percent

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by Matthew Graham on February 25 2021, 5:28 PM

Mortgage rates WISH they were still at 2.97%--the number conveyed today by Freddie Mac's weekly survey. Freddie's data is accurate when it comes to capturing broad trends over time, but can really fall short when the bond market is experiencing elevated...
Highest Mortgage Rates Since June 2020

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by Matthew Graham on February 24 2021, 4:33 PM

As of today, you'd have to go back to June 2020 to see higher mortgage rates. This is courtesy of an ongoing move in the bond market that has longer-term rates/yields surging higher at the quickest pace since the pandemic began. The broader bond market...
February Easily The Worst Month For Rates in Long Time

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by Matthew Graham on February 22 2021, 6:06 PM

There are still 4 business days left in the month of February and thus still 4 days for the bond market to undergo an epic recovery that helps mortgage rates come back down. But traders and market-watchers alike have pined for--if not outright expected...
Time to Wake Up To The New Mortgage Rate Reality

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by Matthew Graham on February 19 2021, 5:54 PM

There's no precedent for the winning streak enjoyed by mortgage rates in the 2nd half of 2020. We've never seen so many new record lows in the same year, and we never spent as much time at those lows (not even close). All of the above makes it easy to...
Yes, Mortgage Rates are MUCH Higher This Week

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by Matthew Graham on February 17 2021, 4:18 PM

Volatility has returned to the mortgage market in grand fashion this week with many lenders quoting rates that are as much as a quarter of a point higher than they were last week. That means if you were looking at something in the 2.75% neighborhood on...
Rates Surge; Time To Adjust Your Mortgage Game Plan

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by Matthew Graham on February 16 2021, 4:18 PM

Recovery prospects, renewed focus on stimulus, inflation concerns, a brighter covid outlook, etc... All of these are reasons for an ongoing, gradual trend toward higher rates in 2021 (i.e. general bond market weakness) but none of them really explain...
When Will The Mortgage Market Actually Care About Rising Rates?

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by Matthew Graham on February 11 2021, 2:37 PM

There's an obvious trend toward higher rates as far as Treasury yields are concerned. This goes all the way back to August. Treasury yields and mortgage rates historically correlate quite well. But mortgage rates have almost completely ignored that correlation...

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