Mortgage Rates Predictions and Analysis

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Rates Recover Modestly, But Uncertainty Remains

Mortgage Rates' Week Goes From Bad to Worse

Worst Week For Mortgage Rates Since 2016

Mortgage Steady at Recent Highs

Mortgage Rates Highest in More Than a Month

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Broker Products; Vendor Developments; Rate Volatility Increase

Tariffs are Creating a Perfect Storm for Builders

MBS Day Ahead: As 1.80% Gives Way in 10yr Yields, What Would...

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MBS RECAP: Game Over? Maybe, Maybe Not...

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Rates Recover Modestly, But Uncertainty Remains Ahead of Fed Day

Published: 9/16/2019

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Mortgage Rates Hold Steady at Week's Highest levels

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by Matthew Graham on August 22 2019, 3:57 PM

Mortgage rates managed to hold relatively steady today after moving higher at their fastest pace in over a week yesterday. Incidentally, they also hit their highest levels in more than a week as well. In the bigger picture, the changes have been relatively...
Mortgage Rates Pop Higher

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by Matthew Graham on August 21 2019, 4:58 PM

Mortgage rates moved higher today, and it had nothing to do with any of the day's events or news headlines. Quite simply put, the bond market (which dictates the rates that can offered by lenders) had already begun to weaken as of yesterday afternoon...
Mortgage Rates Fairly Flat Today, But Volatility Could Increase

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by Matthew Graham on August 20 2019, 5:13 PM

Mortgage rates held steady today, for the most part. If there was a leaning, it was toward slightly lower rates, but not by a wide enough margin to be significant. At first glance, holding steady at the lowest levels in nearly 3 years is great! In fact...
Mortgage Rates Hold Relatively Steady Despite Bond Market Weakness

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by Matthew Graham on August 19 2019, 4:52 PM

Mortgage rates mostly held steady today , despite a move higher in broader interest rate indicators like the 10yr Treasury yield. Treasuries and mortgage rates typically track each other quite well, but that relationship has broken down in recent weeks...
Mortgage Rate Weirdness May Be Working in Your Favor Today

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by Matthew Graham on August 16 2019, 3:22 PM

Things have been weird enough for mortgage rates recently that we were forced to add a " Temporary Note on Mortgage Rate Inconsistency " to our daily coverage recently. It will likely return before too long, but with a few edits for clarity. Edits will...
Mortgage Rates Fall Back Down to 3-Year Lows

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by Matthew Graham on August 15 2019, 5:18 PM

Mortgage rates fell today as the underlying market for mortgage-backed-securities (MBS) actually did a better job of keeping pace with broader bond market gains--not something they've been doing very well lately! For some lenders, it was enough to get...
Mortgage Rates Are a Mess!

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by Matthew Graham on August 14 2019, 6:31 PM

Mortgage rates were unchanged for many lenders today which is utterly and completely shocking given the other market developments that tend to coincide with rates moving lower. Specifically, stocks tanked and 10yr Treasury yields plummeted to the lowest...
Mortgage Rates Jump After Tariff Delay

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by Matthew Graham on August 13 2019, 5:13 PM

Mortgage rates were still unchanged for many lenders as of this morning. There were even a few offering slightly lower rates compared to yesterday morning's offerings. That was a welcome development considering broader bond markets (which generally dictate...
Mortgage Rates Miraculously Flat Despite Massively Lower Treasury Yields

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by Matthew Graham on August 12 2019, 3:24 PM

Mortgage rates were unchanged to slightly higher today--a claim that utterly boggles the mind of anyone who thought they understood the relationship between bond markets and the mortgage world. ALMOST without fail, a big drop in 10yr Treasury yields will...
Here's Why Mortgage Rates Dropped Even Though Markets Disagreed

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by Matthew Graham on August 09 2019, 4:15 PM

Mortgage rates moved lower today even though the broader bond market suggested they should have remained flat or higher. In several of this week's previous articles, we've discussed the volatility that's been wreaking havoc on the world of mortgage rate...
No, Mortgage Rates Are No Longer "Sharply Lower" This Week!

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by Matthew Graham on August 08 2019, 4:22 PM

Mortgage rates were sharply higher today, with the average 30yr fixed rate quote rising by almost an eighth of a percentage point in some cases. A move of that magnitude in one day is the sort of thing that only happens a few times a year. Surprisingly...
Warning: Tomorrow's Mortgage Rate News Will be Wrong

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by Matthew Graham on August 07 2019, 5:13 PM

Mortgage rates have had a great week. Although rates are slightly higher today versus yesterday, they're still exceptionally close to the lowest levels since November 2016. That's actually been the case since late last week as more than half of the improvement...
Lowest Rates Since November 2016

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by Matthew Graham on August 06 2019, 6:03 PM

Mortgage rates hit their lowest levels since November 2016 late last week and they've proceeded to set a new long-term low each day since then. Today was no exception. That's fairly surprising at first glance, considering the underlying changes in the...
Just When You Thought Rates Wouldn't Go Any Lower

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by Matthew Graham on August 05 2019, 3:58 PM

Mortgage rates were already in great shape on Friday after having fallen to the lowest levels since November 2016. Rather than draw inspiration from the week's big ticket events (Fed announcement and jobs report), the biggest source of inspiration was...
Mortgage Rates Drop to New Multi-Year Lows

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by Matthew Graham on August 02 2019, 7:02 PM

Mortgage rates fell again on Friday as lenders finally saw recent bond market gains stabilize enough to act on. In other words, lenders don't always keep their mortgage rate offerings moving in lock-step with the underlying bond market (which dictates...

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