Mortgage Rates Predictions and Analysis

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Mortgage Rates Down 0.25% This Week

Mortgage Rates Move Deeper Into Long-Term Lows

Mortgage Rates Surge to New Long-Term Lows After Fed

Rates Unchanged for 4th Straight Day. That Should Change Tomorrow

Mortgage Rates Hold 14-Month Lows

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Mortgage Rates Down 0.25% This Week; Freddie Downgrades Economy, but Not Housing; Existing Sales Post Huge Gain

Published: 3/22/2019

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Mortgage Rates Highest in More Than a Month

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by Matthew Graham on March 01 2019, 4:15 PM

Mortgage rates surged again today as the underlying bond market continued to capitulate to selling pressure. Let's talk about what that means in plain English! Capitulation in financial markets refers to investors on one side of a trade gradually becoming...
Mortgage Rates Spike to 2-Week Highs

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by Matthew Graham on February 28 2019, 6:00 PM

Mortgage rates moved quickly higher today following stronger-than-expected economic data. Rates are driven by the bond market. Bonds are safe-haven assets. When the economy is stronger, investors are less likely to to buy safe-haven assets. As demand...
Mortgage Rates Not Interested in Any of Today's Drama

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by Matthew Graham on February 27 2019, 5:54 PM

At one point today, there were three apparently important events dominating the newswires simultaneously. These included the Fed Chair's congressional testimony, the Cohen congressional testimony, and--you guessed it--congressional testimony from Lighthizer...
Mortgage Rates Still Near Lows After Powell Testimony

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by Matthew Graham on February 26 2019, 4:41 PM

Whereas mortgage rates were almost undetectably higher yesterday, they were lower by roughly the same insignificant amount today. In either case, and unless they make a much bigger move, they're generally hanging out near the lowest levels in more than...
Mortgage Rates Only Modestly Higher After Tariff News

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by Matthew Graham on February 25 2019, 3:24 PM

Mortgage rates were very nearly unchanged today, although the average lender was just slightly higher. Investors reacted to news over the weekend that the US/China tariff deadline would be extended. While that doesn't have anything to do with mortgage...
Mortgage Rates Only Slightly Lower Despite Strong Bond Market

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by Matthew Graham on February 22 2019, 6:12 PM

Mortgage rates are most directly affected by the day to day movement in the bond market. It's interesting to consider that bonds improved quite a bit today, even though mortgage rates were only modestly higher. In fact, some lenders continued showing...
Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher Today

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by Matthew Graham on February 21 2019, 4:03 PM

Mortgage rates may be close to their lowest levels in more than a year, but they were slightly higher versus yesterday. Yesterday's rates were close enough to 1-year lows that no one would take exception with the claim. That said, rates on January 31st...
Mortgage Rates Near Long-Term Lows After Fed Minutes

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by Matthew Graham on February 20 2019, 4:46 PM

Mortgage rates finally broke from their recent "back-and-forth" pattern of the past 7 business days and moved lower for the 2nd day in a row . Although today's big-ticket event for financial markets was the 2pm release of the Fed's most recent meeting...
Mortgage Rates Sticking Close to Long-Term Lows

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by Matthew Graham on February 19 2019, 3:47 PM

Mortgage rates fell modestly today, making it the 7th straight business day where they've moved in the opposite direction from the previous day. This see-saw pattern is commonly seen during periods of consolidation in the bond market (which serves as...
Mortgage Rates in a Holding Pattern

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by Matthew Graham on February 15 2019, 3:01 PM

Mortgage rates were slightly higher today, marking the 6th day in a row where they've reversed course versus the previous day. This is the sort of behavior we see when underlying financial markets are having a hard time making up their mind (or are simply...
Rates Are Better Today, But Not Back to 1-Year Lows

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by Matthew Graham on February 14 2019, 4:43 PM

Mortgage rates recovered today after rising to the highest levels in a week as of yesterday. The improvement followed a much-weaker-than-expected Retail Sales report--something investors have been waiting on for nearly 2 months due to the government shutdown...
Highest Mortgage Rates in a Week After Today's Move

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by Matthew Graham on February 13 2019, 4:41 PM

Mortgage rates hadn't changed much over the past few business days, even though they arguably should have moved a bit higher yesterday. That made today's adjustment slightly more abrupt. Why was there an adjustment? Mortgage rates are based primarily...
How The Shutdown Is Affecting Mortgage Rates

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by Matthew Graham on February 12 2019, 4:32 PM

Mortgage rates were roughly unchanged yet again today, although the average lender was charging microscopically higher fees compared to yesterday. The key ingredient in today's market movement (which ultimately translates to mortgage rate movement) was...
Low Rates Unfazed by a Bit of Market Weakness

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by Matthew Graham on February 11 2019, 3:55 PM

Mortgage rates held their ground fairly well today, despite the fact that underlying bond markets were weaker. Bond market weakness is associated with higher interest rates, all other things being equal. To understand this, consider that a bond is essentially...
Mortgage Rates End Week at Lows

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by Matthew Graham on February 08 2019, 5:36 PM

Mortgage rates may not be quite as low as they were on January 31st, but they nonetheless managed to end at the lowest levels of this week . Unlike January 31st, we can still say we're at the lowest levels in more than a year (yesterday was the first...

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