Mortgage Rates Predictions and Analysis

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The Real Story Behind The Past 2 Weeks of Mortgage Rate Volatility

Mortgage Rates Continue Healing, But Remain Well Above Recent...

Mortgage Rates Find Some Support After an Ugly Start

Rates Rising at Fastest Pace in Months

Have We Seen The End of Record Low Rates?

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Improvements in Forbearance Continue to Slow

Freddie Sees Mortgage Originations Contracting Nearly 20% in...

Post-2008 Standardized Practices Have Helped Manage Forbearances

Retail, Ops Jobs; Appraisal, Non-QM, Jumbo, DPA Products; Industry...

MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Not Threatened By Stimulus; Consolidation...

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Real Story Behind Rate Volatility; Slower Forbearance Improvement; Origination Forecast

Published: 1/15/2021

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Mortgage Rates Barely Higher For Some; Lower For Others

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by Matthew Graham on December 14 2020, 3:33 PM

What do you get when you add a modest amount of cost to the average mortgage rate from last Friday? Rates that are still effectively right in line with all-time lows . In fact, most borrowers will not see any major differences in loan quotes between the...
Time To Think About Mortgage Rate Complacency (Before It's Too Late)

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by Matthew Graham on December 11 2020, 5:58 PM

After months of waiting and multiple successive reports of all-time lows from other sources, the average lender is now finally back in line with the actual all-time lows seen on August 4th, 2020. With different sources making this claim at different times...
It's Late 2020, So Why Would Mortgage Rates Even Move?

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by Matthew Graham on December 10 2020, 4:05 PM

It's old news that 2020 is unprecedented for a lot of bad reasons, but how about a few that aren't so bad? As is often the case when anything causes massive global economic contraction, interest rates plummeted. That's a good thing, in and of itself....
Huge Gaps Remain Between Lenders' Mortgage Rate Offerings

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by Matthew Graham on December 09 2020, 4:46 PM

While all is easily forgiven in light of all-time low rates, the pandemic made a mess of the mortgage market in many ways. Most messes have been resolved, but several big ones remain. A few examples include a near doubling of previous turn times (from...
Refi Rates Are Finally Back to All-Time Lows

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by Matthew Graham on December 08 2020, 5:11 PM

For some lenders, it was last week. For others, it was today. After months of waiting and multiple successive reports of all-time lows from other sources, the average lender is now finally back in line with the actual all-time lows seen on August 4th...
Mortgage Rates Living Their Own Life By Their Own Rules

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by Matthew Graham on December 07 2020, 4:59 PM

You might think you know mortgage rates. You might make assumptions about where they'll go and what they'll do based on past precedent. For decades, you may have done a nearly flawless job of that simply by drawing the exceedingly logical conclusion that...
Mortgage Rate Rules Are Completely Out The Window

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by Matthew Graham on December 04 2020, 5:53 PM

Mortgage loans ultimately "turn into" bonds and those bonds have a certain value to investors. When those values change, so do the rates offered by mortgage lenders. This is basically a hard and fast rule. But it's completely out the window right now...
Mortgage Rates Well-Protected From Jobs Report Volatility

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by Matthew Graham on December 03 2020, 4:43 PM

Tomorrow brings the month's most important economic report: the Employment Situation, often referred to simply as "the jobs report." No other piece of economic data has remotely the same track record of inspiring movement in the bond market (which, in...
Mortgage Rates Continue Defying Bond Market Weakness

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by Matthew Graham on December 02 2020, 4:19 PM

Although it was the focus of yesterday's discussion , the ability of the mortgage market to hold steady in the face of bond market weakness continues to impress . This is interesting because mortgage rates take direct cues from the bond market. That's...
Mortgage Rates Surprisingly Steady Despite Market Drama

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by Matthew Graham on December 01 2020, 4:05 PM

Like many industries, housing finance has a superficial layer that's fairly easy to understand for the average consumer. A person wants a home. They don't want to pay cash. They get a loan. Lower rates = lower payments. The end. Shortly below that superficial...
Mortgage Rates Hold Steady Over Holiday Weekend

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by Matthew Graham on November 30 2020, 4:43 PM

Although many mortgage lenders were technically open for business last Friday, it's a well-known unofficial holiday. Mortgage rate movement requires bond market movement, and the post-Thanksgiving Friday invariably sees fewer traders trading fewer bonds...
Mortgage Rates Little-Changed But The Fed Raises Some Doubts

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by Matthew Graham on November 25 2020, 4:11 PM

Mortgage rates have been operating relatively close to their all-time lows recently and today was no exception. The Fed raised some doubts as to how much longer that would be the case this afternoon when it released the minutes of its most recent policy...
How The New Loan Limits Affect Mortgage Rates

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by Matthew Graham on November 24 2020, 4:42 PM

If you follow the MBS Commentary channel on this site, you will have already seen most of the following, but it's relevant for consumers as well. As far as mortgage rates are concerned, the increase in conforming loan limits doesn't have a direct impact...
Mortgage Rates Start New Week Slightly Higher

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by Matthew Graham on November 23 2020, 5:01 PM

Everything is relative when it comes to following day-to-day movements in mortgage rates . Yes, they're technically higher than they were on Friday afternoon, but they're still lower than just about any other day... ever. Most prospective borrowers will...
Biggest Housing Boom Since 2006 And The Truth About "All-Time Low" Rates

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by Matthew Graham on November 20 2020, 6:41 PM

The National Association of Realtors' Existing Home Sales report is the broadest measure of housing market activity. It just hit a 14-year record for the 3rd month in a row. It's not just existing homes. The new home market is crushing it as well. This...

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