Mortgage Rates Predictions and Analysis

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Published: 9/19/2018

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Mortgage Rates Edge Higher Again

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by Matthew Graham on August 29 2018, 5:16 PM

Mortgage rates were just slightly higher again today, keeping them in line with the highest levels in about 3 weeks. The same caveat applies: we're talking about "effective rates" (which factor in upfront lender costs) as opposed to "note rates" (the...
Mortgage Rates Highest in More Than 2 Weeks

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by Matthew Graham on August 28 2018, 4:48 PM

Mortgage rates rose again today--this time more noticeably than yesterday--bringing them to the highest levels in more than 2 weeks. For most, however, that sounds a lot worse than it actually is. In fact, the interest rate at the top of a loan quote...
Mortgage Rates Higher (or Lower) Depending on Lender

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by Matthew Graham on August 27 2018, 3:58 PM

Mortgage rates moved higher for some lenders and lower for others, depending on how that particular lender adjusted their rate sheets on Friday afternoon. While the bonds that underlie mortgage rates are moving constantly throughout the day, lenders want...
Mortgage Rates Edge Higher, Then Lower

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by Matthew Graham on August 24 2018, 7:17 PM

Mortgage rates began the day slightly higher . In fact, for several lenders, it was the biggest day-over-day move higher in more than 2 weeks. The key word here is "was." Things quickly changed in the mid-morning hours after Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered...
Mortgage Rates Extend Impressively Flat Trend

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by Matthew Graham on August 23 2018, 4:55 PM

Mortgage rates have been more or less unchanged since August 10th . That's an impressively boring streak even by summertime standards. Why does summertime matter? Simply put, rates are ultimately a factor of trading that's conducted directly or indirectly...
Mortgage Rates Extend Steady Streak

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by Matthew Graham on August 22 2018, 3:45 PM

Mortgage rates haven't really moved for 9 straight business days. Some lenders have seen microscopic improvements during that time, but the average lender is still quoting the same rates and fees seen on August 13th. The underlying bond market is part...
Mortgage Rates Little-Changed Ahead of Fed Minutes

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by Matthew Graham on August 21 2018, 4:08 PM

Mortgage rates were generally unchanged again today although several lenders were in just slightly better territory. That makes this the 8th straight business day with almost no change in mortgage rates. During that time, underlying bond markets have...
Mortgage Rates Resisting a Move Lower

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by Matthew Graham on August 20 2018, 4:59 PM

Mortgage rates were almost perfectly unchanged again today, meaning they haven't really changed in more than a week. All this despite a rather noticeable improvement in underlying bond markets (something that typically goes hand in hand with lower mortgage...
Mortgage Rates Almost Perfectly Unchanged This Week

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by Matthew Graham on August 17 2018, 4:29 PM

Mortgage rates were almost perfectly unchanged today. That leaves them right in line with last Friday's levels. I devoted a considerable number of words in yesterday's article to explaining why most other articles about mortgage rates were inaccurate...
Mortgage Rate Misinformation Run Amok!

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by Matthew Graham on August 16 2018, 3:31 PM

Be careful what you read--or perhaps, who you trust--about mortgage rates today. There's a lot of misinformation out there. Don't be mad. No one is out to get you. No one is out to intentionally deceive you (at least not when it comes to today's mortgage...
Mortgage Rates Barely Lower Despite Bond Market Cues

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by Matthew Graham on August 15 2018, 1:29 PM

Mortgage rates fell only modestly today despite a much stronger move in broader bond markets. I spend a lot of time espousing the fact that rates are based on bonds, so it's fair to wonder how days like today happen. Indeed, interest rates are based on...
Mortgage Rates Edge Higher Ahead of Retail Sales Data

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by Matthew Graham on August 14 2018, 3:04 PM

Mortgage rates were sideways to slightly higher today, depending on the lender. With the exception of the past two days, this leaves us at the best levels in more than 3 weeks. In general, that move was made possible by financial drama in Turkey, but...
Mortgage Rates Hold Steady at 3-Week Lows

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by Matthew Graham on August 13 2018, 5:03 PM

Mortgage rates stayed steady at the lowest levels in more than 3 weeks as financial markets are still accounting for additional risks relating to Turkey. Simply put, Turkey is in the midst of a debt/currency/banking crisis and investors are worried about...
Mortgage Rates Noticeably Lower on Global Market Drama

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by Matthew Graham on August 10 2018, 4:47 PM

Mortgage rates , and indeed most interest rates, are tied to movement in the bond market. In turn, bonds tend to benefit when big, scary stuff is shaking global economic confidence. In today's case, the debt crisis in Turkey did just that. Investors sought...
Lowest Mortgage Rates in Several Weeks

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by Matthew Graham on August 09 2018, 3:58 PM

Mortgage rates finally did what they were supposed to do today. Specifically, they fell in response to bond market improvement. That's the way it should be, but over the past two days the typical relationship between bonds and mortgage lenders' rates...

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