Mortgage Rates Predictions and Analysis

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Mortgage Rates Improve After Fed Announcement

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by Matthew Graham on December 11 2019, 4:14 PM

Mortgage rates improved today following the Federal Reserve's policy announcement and Fed Chair Powell's press conference. The Fed doesn't set mortgage rates (their policy rate applies to 1-day loans between banks whereas mortgages obviously last a lot...
Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher Ahead of Fed Announcement

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by Matthew Graham on December 10 2019, 4:14 PM

Mortgage rates moved up modestly today as bond markets weakened in response to trade headlines. This week's key consideration on the trade front is whether or not the planned December 15th tariff increase is delayed, canceled, or confirmed. In general...
Mortgage Rates Snap Back to Lower Levels

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by Matthew Graham on December 09 2019, 2:58 PM

Mortgage rates reacted somewhat harshly to an incredibly strong jobs report last Friday. At the time, I noted that such a jobs report would typically have done much more damage to rates, but that the current environment mitigates its impact for a few...
A Jobs Report This Strong Usually Does Much More Damage to Mortgage Rates

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by Matthew Graham on December 06 2019, 1:45 PM

Mortgage rates were pushed higher for the 3rd day in a row following an incredibly strong jobs report. For decades, if you were to ask anyone with a reasonable level of experience following rates/bonds to pick one economic report that bonds care about...
Mortgage Rates Snap Back to 3-Week Highs

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by Matthew Graham on December 05 2019, 3:56 PM

Mortgage rates have seen a fair amount of volatility so far this week, dropping quickly on Tuesday and moving in the opposite direction since then. Between yesterday and today, that big drop from earlier in the week has been completely erased. The result...
Mortgage Rates Near Recent Lows Despite Moving Up Today

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by Matthew Graham on December 04 2019, 3:29 PM

Mortgage rates dropped sharply yesterday after having risen to the highest levels in 2 weeks the day before. Yesterday's culprit was trade war related, but today had a more robust calendar of potentially market moving data. So did the data end up moving...
Mortgage Rates Reverse Course, Falling Quickly

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by Matthew Graham on December 03 2019, 4:38 PM

Mortgage rates were up to the highest levels in 2 weeks yesterday, but that was then and this is now. In the wee hours of the morning, trade-related headlines rocked financial markets. This sent stock prices and bond yields (aka "rates") lower at a rapid...
Mortgage Rates Up To 2-Week Highs

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by Matthew Graham on December 02 2019, 3:19 PM

Mortgage rates increased moderately to begin the new week/month and had been increasing in general during the previous week. The net effect is some lenders are quoting rates that are an eighth of a point higher compared to those seen at the beginning...
Mortgage Rates Edge Higher

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by Matthew Graham on November 27 2019, 2:38 PM

Mortgage rates moved slightly higher today, leaving them roughly in the middle of November's narrow range. Although banks and many mortgage lenders will be open on Friday, lenders won't be as eager to respond to improvements in the bond market as usual...
Mortgage Rates Fall Back to Recent Lows

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by Matthew Graham on November 26 2019, 4:31 PM

Mortgage rates recovered today after moving higher for the first time in nearly 2 weeks yesterday. In the bigger picture, rates have been in a back-and-forth pattern near long-term lows. Most of October and early November were spent with rates moving...
Mortgage Rates Higher to Start Holiday Week

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by Matthew Graham on November 25 2019, 4:08 PM

Mortgage rates finally moved a bit higher today after avoiding such things for nearly 2 full weeks. The losses were mild today, but nonetheless take the average lender back in line with rates from November 15th. This is more of a commentary on the narrowness...
Mortgage Rates Holding Near November Lows

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by Matthew Graham on November 22 2019, 5:34 PM

Mortgage rates ended their recent winning streak yesterday, but they have yet to try to get a losing streak started! In other words, rates bottomed out after a week and a half of improvement on Wednesday and they haven't really budged since then. This...
Mortgage Rates Steady Despite Bond Market Weakness

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by Matthew Graham on November 21 2019, 4:18 PM

Mortgage rates spent a 2nd day with the average lender holding relatively steady . This follows a decent winning streak over the previous week and a half with the net effect being at least an eighth of a percent (.125%) improvement on the average conventional...
Mortgage Rates Lowest Since Halloween

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by Matthew Graham on November 20 2019, 4:45 PM

Mortgage rates are in the midst of a winning streak of moderate size and duration. Specifically, rates have improved by at least an eighth of a percentage point for the average lender since the beginning of last week and have moved lower on all but one...
Mortgage Rates Hold Steady

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by Matthew Graham on November 19 2019, 3:29 PM

Mortgage rates had a great week last week and haven't done anything to jeopardize that so far this week. Today was the first time during these 2 weeks where rates have merely held steady as opposed to move lower. The recent winning streak requires a caveat...

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