Mortgage Rates Predictions and Analysis

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Mortgage Rates Stay Near Recent Lows as Busy Week Begins

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by Matthew Graham on October 29 2018, 4:22 PM

Mortgage rates didn't move today, despite a fair amount of underlying market volatility. Rates are able to weather the sorts of storms you hear about in the stock market in part due to the diminishing returns of stock market drama on the bond market....
Mortgage Rates Fall to 2-Week Lows Amid Stock Rout

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by Matthew Graham on October 26 2018, 2:08 PM

Mortgage rates fell decisively today--at least in the context of the recent range--thanks primarily to heavy losses in the stock market. Stocks are far from the only consideration for interest rates, and many times, there's no correlation between the...
Mortgage Rates Stuck in The Mud

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by Matthew Graham on October 25 2018, 4:27 PM

Mortgage rates were unchanged yet again , making this the third day in a row at essentially the same levels. Strikingly, underlying market movement was quite different compared to yesterday. It's striking because underlying market movement drives changes...
Mortgage Rates Appallingly Unchanged Relative to Market Movement

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by Matthew Graham on October 24 2018, 4:22 PM

Mortgage rates were roughly unchanged today. That's an appalling reality considering the movement in underlying bond markets. Bonds--specifically, mortgage-backed securities (MBS)--are the primary input used by mortgage lenders in determining rates. As...
Mortgage Rates Barely Budge Despite Market Volatility

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by Matthew Graham on October 23 2018, 5:05 PM

Mortgage rates didn't move much for the second day this week. Unlike yesterday, there was a relatively massive amount of volatility in underlying financial markets. This was especially true for stocks and the US Treasury market (which sets the tone for...
Mortgage Rates Little-Changed to Begin The Week

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by Matthew Graham on October 22 2018, 4:52 PM

Mortgage rates didn't move much today. Lenders who made changes to Friday's rate sheets generally did so toward slightly higher rates. Actually, it would be more precise to say those lenders raised upfront costs associated with any given rate. This is...
Rates Edge Back Toward Long-Term Highs

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by Matthew Graham on October 19 2018, 3:25 PM

Mortgage rates failed to extend yesterday's modest improvement, moving modestly higher by the end of the day. This takes the average lender very close to the long-term highs seen on October 5th. Indeed, prospective borrowers shouldn't be surprised to...
Mortgage Rates Recover With Help From an Old Friend

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by Matthew Graham on October 18 2018, 4:17 PM

Mortgage rates recovered most of yesterday's losses today, following turmoil in European financial markets. What does Europe have to do with rates in the US? A lot, actually. In fact, Europe deserves credit for most of the glacial move toward lower rates...
Mortgage Rates Back up to Recent Highs

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by Matthew Graham on October 17 2018, 6:10 PM

Mortgage rates moved higher at a quicker pace today, following the release of the Minutes from the most recent Fed meeting. But correlation isn't necessarily causality in this case. The Minutes provide a more detailed account of the Fed meeting that resulted...
Mortgage Rates Modestly Higher Ahead of Fed Minutes

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by Matthew Graham on October 16 2018, 4:11 PM

Mortgage rates didn't move much today. Some lenders were perfectly unchanged, but the average lender was just slightly higher. That's at odds with underlying bond market movement (which directly impacts rates)--at least at first glance. Specifically,...
Mortgage Rates Stay Steady, Waiting For a Sign

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by Matthew Graham on October 15 2018, 4:43 PM

Mortgage rates were sideways to slightly higher today, prolonging a 3-day trend of exceptionally light volatility. The 5 days before that (beginning on Wednesday, October 3rd) were completely different, with a huge move higher at first followed by a moderate...
Mortgage Rates Hold Steady as Stocks Stabilize

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by Matthew Graham on October 12 2018, 6:41 PM

Mortgage rates held relatively steady today, finally leveling off after two solid days of improvement driven by the week's big stock market sell-off. Stocks and rates don't always move in the same direction at the same time, but when stocks make a big...
Mortgage Rates Drop to Last Thursday's Levels

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by Matthew Graham on October 11 2018, 5:08 PM

Mortgage rates fell today as the stock market sell-off remained in focus. Stocks and rates certainly don't have a linear and predictable relationship, but when stocks move lower as quickly as they have over the past 2 days, rates tend to see at least...
Mortgage Rates Not Impressed by Market Volatility

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by Matthew Graham on October 10 2018, 5:58 PM

Mortgage rates are based on mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which are essentially bonds. Conventional wisdom holds that stocks and bonds supplement one another, and that as "money moves in" to one side of the market, it will move out of the other. Conventional...
Mortgage Rates Improve Slightly Today, But Risks Remain

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by Matthew Graham on October 09 2018, 4:32 PM

Mortgage rates recovered a small portion of their recent losses today, but the average loan applicant might not even notice. The 2 key ingredients of a mortgage rate (for the purposes of tracking their movement) are the rate itself (the "note rate") and...

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