Mortgage rates managed to hold relatively steady today after moving higher at their fastest pace in over a week yesterday.  Incidentally, they also hit their highest levels in more than a week as well.  In the bigger picture, the changes have been relatively small.  The underlying bond market is catching its breath after an impressive surge toward lower rates throughout August.

Some market participants think the next noticeable wave of momentum will begin tomorrow after Fed Chair Powell speaks at the annual Jackson Hole symposium.  Like many potentially important communications from the Fed, this one has plenty of POTENTIAL to cause a stir, but is by no means guaranteed to do so.  If it does, the risks are tilted toward rising rates as opposed to a quick return to recent lows.  Importantly though: both scenarios are possible and entirely dependent on what's said.

Loan Originator Perspective

Rates continued their slow ascent today, as treasury yields broke 1.6%.  It's important to keep in mind that we're still very close to multi-year lows, and there's a lot more room for rates to rise than fall further.  I am locking loans closing in September, and some of October's as well.  We're going to need severe Tariff Trauma or similar global economic strife to move much lower from here. -Ted Rood, Senior Originator 

Today's Most Prevalent Rates

  • 30YR FIXED - 3.5 - 3.625%
  • FHA/VA - 3.25-3.5%
  • 15 YEAR FIXED - 3.125 - 3.375% 
  • 5 YEAR ARMS -  3.375-3.75% depending on the lender

Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations 

  • 2019 has been the best year for mortgage rates since 2011.  Big, long-lasting improvements such as this one are increasingly susceptible to bounces/corrections.

  • Fed policy and the US/China trade war have been key players

  • The Fed and the bond market (which dictates rates) will be watching economic data closely, both at home and abroad, as well as trade war updates. The stronger the data and trade relations, the more rates could rise, while weaker data and trade wars will lead to new long-term lows.  
  • Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders.  The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable.  Rates appearing on this page are "effective rates" that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.