Mortgage rates haven't moved much this week, or last week, or the week before that.  In fact, for the average prospective borrower, there haven't been any major changes since first making it down to the multi-year lows in June.  That said, there has been enough volatility to matter.  Today wasn't a great example of that, but tomorrow or one of the two days that follows, may be.

In addition to some more significant economic reports coming out in the morning, tomorrow brings the Fed rate decision.  To be fair, the Fed's decision has already been made, best anyone can tell.  A 25 basis point (0.25%) rate cut is basically guaranteed.  That might seem like a good thing for mortgage rates, but the benefits have already been reaped.  Tomorrow's market movement depends more on the economic data and the specifics in the Fed's verbiage.  There will be two opportunities for markets to digest that verbiage tomorrow, first with the announcement at 2pm and then with Fed Chair Powell's press conference at 2:30pm.

Loan Originator Perspective

Bonds hovered near unchanged today, as inflation data came in slightly below expectations and tomorrow's Fed Statement and employment data loomed large.  I doubt Fed will make any unexpected moves, but that doesn't mean we should let our guards down.  I'm locking applications closing in August. -Ted Rood, Senior Originator

Today's Most Prevalent Rates

  • 30YR FIXED - 3.875%
  • FHA/VA - 3.625%
  • 15 YEAR FIXED - 3.5-3.625% 
  • 5 YEAR ARMS -  3.375-3.75% depending on the lender

Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

  • Early 2019 saw a rapid reevaluation of big-picture trends in rates and in markets in general

  • The Federal Reserve has been a key player, and while they aren't the ones pulling the global economic strings, their response (and even their EXPECTED response) to the economy has helped rates fall more quickly than they otherwise might.

  • Based on the Fed's laundry list of concerns, the bond market (which determines rates) will be watching economic data closely, both at home and abroad, as well as trade-related concerns. The stronger the data and trade relations, the more rates could rise, while weaker data and trade wars will lead to new long-term lows.  
  • Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders.  The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable.  Rates appearing on this page are "effective rates" that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.