Mortgage rates were unchanged today, on average.  Some lenders were slightly better, others were slightly worse, but none were very far from yesterday's latest levels.  In fact, most prospective borrowers would see the exact same quote they saw yesterday.  As was the case yesterday, an absence of movement isn't bad news, considering rates are in line with their lowest levels since November 2016.

Today's key events were speeches from the leaders of the world's 2 biggest central banks: Janet Yellen (Fed) and Mario Draghi of the European Central Bank (ECB).  Markets didn't have especially high hopes that these speeches would be earth-shattering and that instinct ended up being right on the money.  Neither speaker shared any major revelation.  In fact, both avoided commenting on monetary policy almost completely.  

Day-to-day risks remain muted when it comes to big swings in mortgage rates.  Granted, a big swing is always possible when we're dealing with financial markets, but we just haven't seen any stark examples of that in more than a month.  The most prevalently-quoted conventional 30yr fixed rate remains 3.875% on top tier scenarios.

Loan Originator Perspective

Most of my clients continue to favor locking.   I am not opposed to floating over the weekend.  Bonds opened up a little weaker resulting in lenders offering slightly worse pricing today.  Since rate sheets have hit, bonds have moved higher.  With today being a Friday, i believe lenders will be slow to pass along any gains.   If your lender doesn't reprice better, I would float over the weekend and evaluate pricing on Monday morning.   -Victor Burek, Churchill Mortgage

Today's Most Prevalent Rates

  • 30YR FIXED - 3.875-4.00%
  • FHA/VA - 3.5-3.75% 
  • 15 YEAR FIXED - 3.25%
  • 5 YEAR ARMS -  2.75 - 3.25% depending on the lender

Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

  • Investors were relatively convinced that the decades-long trend toward lower rates had been permanently reversed after Trump became president, but such a conclusion would require YEARS to truly confirm

  • Instead of continuing higher in 2017, rates instead formed a narrow, sideways range, and held inside until April.  Investor perceptions are shifting such that fiscal reforms and other policy developments will need to live up to expectations in order to push rates higher.  Geopolitical risks would also need to avoid flaring up (more than they already have)
  • For the first time since the election, we're in a rate environment where you wouldn't be crazy not to lock at every little opportunity/improvement.  Until/unless it's broken, the highest rates of early-2017 mark the ceiling, and we're now waiting to see how much lower we can go from here.
  • Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders.  The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable.  Rates appearing on this page are "effective rates" that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.