This may be what you've been waiting for!  Over the course of the past few days and weeks, we've been increasingly trying to convey the same message: mortgage rate movements are quite volatile and the best course of action is to look for a rate and fee structure that you can live with and get out of the waiting game now.  This can fell hard to do in a falling market as the natural reaction is to hope for a bit of correction before resigning ourselves to lock in at the worst rates we've seen in a while.  But that has changed somewhat this afternoon and here's why...

Sure enough, the day started poorly and rates continued to rise in the morning, but just before the noon hour, the market for MBS (the mortgage backed securities that are constantly trading hands and dictating your loan pricing) started to improve.  And it kept improving in a linear fashion right through the end of the day.  The gains were enough for every lender we watch to improve their loan pricing offers this afternoon.  Some even had more than one instance of improvements!

Rather than hypothesize about the causes of this rally or the likelihood of continuance, we'd rather look at it in the context of recent analysis that has focused on volatility and the "getting out while the getting's good" theme.  So to that end, here goes... 

Given the recent volatility, and given the the uncertainty of what lies ahead, we'd be remiss in the context of our recent recommendations not to tell you that today's gains are more than enough to consider this a moment of reprieve in an otherwise weak market for mortgage rates.  Things may improve, or they may go right back to being awful tomorrow morning.  What's clear is that the rates available this afternoon are much better than those available this morning and thus constitute a text-book opportunity to take advantage of this swing in the market--to get out while the getting is at least less nauseating than it recently was...

To quantify, yesterday's "best-execution" rate moved abruptly to 5.00%.  This morning, as the market continued to worsen, that shot up as far as 5.25%.  But this afternoon, while 5.25% is still probably the best execution rate for most borrowers, the fees associated with obtaining that rate have dropped dramatically, in some cases by around one half of one percent of your loan balance (or a $1500 savings on a $300k loan for example).  There are other opportunities at nearby rates depending on the lender and the structure of your loan. For instance 5.00% FHA loans (maybe 4.875%) are out there. The important thing is that this afternoon (and hopefully early tomorrow morning) is the time to check on what's available and consider making a move.

Important Mortgage Rate Disclaimer: Loan originators will only be able to offer these rates on agency conforming loan amounts to borrowers who are have a middle FICO score over 740 and enough equity in their home to qualify for a refinance or a large enough savings to cover their down payment and closing costs. If the terms of your loan trigger any risk-based loan level pricing adjustments (LLPAs), your rate quote will be higher. If you do not fall into the "perfect borrower" category, make sure you ask your loan originator for an explanation of the characteristics that make your loan more expensive. "No point" loan doesn't mean "no cost" loan. The best 30 year fixed conventional/FHA/VA mortgage rates still include closing costs such as: third party fees + title charges + transfer and recordation + escrows (things like upfront MIP (if required), property taxes, homeowners insurance, accrued interest)