Mortgage Rates Predictions and Analysis

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Mortgage Rate Misinformation Run Amok!

Mortgage Rates Barely Lower Despite Bond Market Cues

Mortgage Rates Edge Higher Ahead of Retail Sales Data

Mortgage Rates Hold Steady at 3-Week Lows

Mortgage Rates Noticeably Lower on Global Market Drama

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Published: 8/16/2018

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Mortgage Rate Misinformation Run Amok!

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by Matthew Graham on August 16 2018, 3:31 PM

Be careful what you read--or perhaps, who you trust--about mortgage rates today. There's a lot of misinformation out there. Don't be mad. No one is out to get you. No one is out to intentionally deceive you (at least not when it comes to today's mortgage...
Mortgage Rates Barely Lower Despite Bond Market Cues

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by Matthew Graham on August 15 2018, 1:29 PM

Mortgage rates fell only modestly today despite a much stronger move in broader bond markets. I spend a lot of time espousing the fact that rates are based on bonds, so it's fair to wonder how days like today happen. Indeed, interest rates are based on...
Mortgage Rates Edge Higher Ahead of Retail Sales Data

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by Matthew Graham on August 14 2018, 3:04 PM

Mortgage rates were sideways to slightly higher today, depending on the lender. With the exception of the past two days, this leaves us at the best levels in more than 3 weeks. In general, that move was made possible by financial drama in Turkey, but...
Mortgage Rates Hold Steady at 3-Week Lows

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by Matthew Graham on August 13 2018, 5:03 PM

Mortgage rates stayed steady at the lowest levels in more than 3 weeks as financial markets are still accounting for additional risks relating to Turkey. Simply put, Turkey is in the midst of a debt/currency/banking crisis and investors are worried about...
Mortgage Rates Noticeably Lower on Global Market Drama

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by Matthew Graham on August 10 2018, 4:47 PM

Mortgage rates , and indeed most interest rates, are tied to movement in the bond market. In turn, bonds tend to benefit when big, scary stuff is shaking global economic confidence. In today's case, the debt crisis in Turkey did just that. Investors sought...
Lowest Mortgage Rates in Several Weeks

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by Matthew Graham on August 09 2018, 3:58 PM

Mortgage rates finally did what they were supposed to do today. Specifically, they fell in response to bond market improvement. That's the way it should be, but over the past two days the typical relationship between bonds and mortgage lenders' rates...
Mortgage Rates Edge Higher Despite Market Improvement

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by Matthew Graham on August 08 2018, 4:57 PM

Mortgage rates were modestly higher today. Much like yesterday, there's a catch! Yesterday's catch was that underlying bond markets had weakened enough during the day that today's rates were more likely start out higher. That was indeed the case. Therefore...
Mortgage Rates Mostly Steady Today, But There's a Catch

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by Matthew Graham on August 07 2018, 3:32 PM

Mortgage rates were roughly unchanged today. That would make this the 4th day in a row without any move higher in rates, and it would leave us at the lowest levels in roughly 2 weeks. But there's a catch. The catch has to do with the way that mortgage...
Mortgage Rates Drift Modestly Lower

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by Matthew Graham on August 06 2018, 4:50 PM

Mortgage rates were slightly lower for the 3rd straight business day, but not for any particular reason. Because of the relatively narrow range, rates are now technically as low as they've been since July 25th for the average lender. There are major caveats...
Mortgage Rates See Glimmer of Hope After Jobs Data

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by Matthew Graham on August 03 2018, 2:12 PM

Mortgage rates fell again today after the jobs report showed slower payroll growth in July and persistently flat wage growth. On average, this is the most important piece of economic data for interest rates over the years as it speaks both to economic...
Mortgage Rates Not Much Higher Than Last Week

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by Matthew Graham on August 02 2018, 3:55 PM

Mortgage rates fell by a modest amount today. It was fairly inconsequential in the bigger picture, but could save some prospective borrowers a few dollars of upfront fees. If you're in a position to decide on locking your loan this afternoon, be aware...
Mortgage Rates Higher, But Not Because Of The Fed

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by Matthew Graham on August 01 2018, 4:21 PM

Mortgage rates were slightly higher today, but not because of the Fed. Today brought a Fed policy announcement which can be quite a big deal for rates, depending on the particulars. This time around, those particulars were almost exactly the same as the...
Mortgage Rates Edge Lower; Volatility Potential Remains

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by Matthew Graham on July 31 2018, 5:08 PM

Mortgage rates fell modestly today, bringing them back in line with last Friday's levels. Most of the inspiration for the improvement came from overnight developments in Japan, where the country's central bank doubled down on its commitment to keep easy...
Mortgage Rates Edge to 2-Month Highs

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by Matthew Graham on July 30 2018, 4:48 PM

Mortgage rates edged higher today, keeping alive a trend toward higher rates that began just over a week ago. While the overall amount of ground covered as a part of this move isn't necessarily alarming, it's significant because it brings us back to the...
Volatility Could Return Next Week For Mortgage Rates

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by Matthew Graham on July 27 2018, 6:56 PM

Mortgage rates were unchanged today, making for an anticlimactic end to a week that saw the sharpest rise in months. The lack of movement was all the more interesting considering the bond market's reaction to this morning's GDP data (bonds dictate rates...

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