Mortgage Rates Predictions and Analysis

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Rates Edge Back Toward Long-Term Highs

Mortgage Rates Recover With Help From an Old Friend

Mortgage Rates Back up to Recent Highs

Mortgage Rates Modestly Higher Ahead of Fed Minutes

Mortgage Rates Stay Steady, Waiting For a Sign

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Rates Edge Back Toward Long-Term Highs

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by Matthew Graham on October 19 2018, 3:25 PM

Mortgage rates failed to extend yesterday's modest improvement, moving modestly higher by the end of the day. This takes the average lender very close to the long-term highs seen on October 5th. Indeed, prospective borrowers shouldn't be surprised to...
Mortgage Rates Recover With Help From an Old Friend

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by Matthew Graham on October 18 2018, 4:17 PM

Mortgage rates recovered most of yesterday's losses today, following turmoil in European financial markets. What does Europe have to do with rates in the US? A lot, actually. In fact, Europe deserves credit for most of the glacial move toward lower rates...
Mortgage Rates Back up to Recent Highs

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by Matthew Graham on October 17 2018, 6:10 PM

Mortgage rates moved higher at a quicker pace today, following the release of the Minutes from the most recent Fed meeting. But correlation isn't necessarily causality in this case. The Minutes provide a more detailed account of the Fed meeting that resulted...
Mortgage Rates Modestly Higher Ahead of Fed Minutes

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by Matthew Graham on October 16 2018, 4:11 PM

Mortgage rates didn't move much today. Some lenders were perfectly unchanged, but the average lender was just slightly higher. That's at odds with underlying bond market movement (which directly impacts rates)--at least at first glance. Specifically,...
Mortgage Rates Stay Steady, Waiting For a Sign

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by Matthew Graham on October 15 2018, 4:43 PM

Mortgage rates were sideways to slightly higher today, prolonging a 3-day trend of exceptionally light volatility. The 5 days before that (beginning on Wednesday, October 3rd) were completely different, with a huge move higher at first followed by a moderate...
Mortgage Rates Hold Steady as Stocks Stabilize

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by Matthew Graham on October 12 2018, 6:41 PM

Mortgage rates held relatively steady today, finally leveling off after two solid days of improvement driven by the week's big stock market sell-off. Stocks and rates don't always move in the same direction at the same time, but when stocks make a big...
Mortgage Rates Drop to Last Thursday's Levels

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by Matthew Graham on October 11 2018, 5:08 PM

Mortgage rates fell today as the stock market sell-off remained in focus. Stocks and rates certainly don't have a linear and predictable relationship, but when stocks move lower as quickly as they have over the past 2 days, rates tend to see at least...
Mortgage Rates Not Impressed by Market Volatility

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by Matthew Graham on October 10 2018, 5:58 PM

Mortgage rates are based on mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which are essentially bonds. Conventional wisdom holds that stocks and bonds supplement one another, and that as "money moves in" to one side of the market, it will move out of the other. Conventional...
Mortgage Rates Improve Slightly Today, But Risks Remain

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by Matthew Graham on October 09 2018, 4:32 PM

Mortgage rates recovered a small portion of their recent losses today, but the average loan applicant might not even notice. The 2 key ingredients of a mortgage rate (for the purposes of tracking their movement) are the rate itself (the "note rate") and...
Mortgage Rates Are Officially Back to 5%

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by Matthew Graham on October 05 2018, 3:21 PM

Mortgage rates moved back over the 5% threshold, on average, for the first time since early 2011 today following mixed data on the jobs market. Why would "mixed data" be such a problem? It's not, per se, but in this case, it reinforced certain trends...
Mortgage Rates Are Anything But Lower This Week!

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by Matthew Graham on October 04 2018, 3:44 PM

If you don't happen to make it past this first sentence, just know that anyone telling you rates are much higher today is NOT lying to you. Anyone telling you the opposite is wrong, even though they may not understand why they're wrong. Coming to such...
Mortgage Rates Surge Well Into New 7-Year Highs

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by Matthew Graham on October 03 2018, 4:43 PM

Mortgage rates skyrocketed today, in relative terms. It was the single worst day in nearly 2 years, and among only a few days where effective rates moved more than 0.10%. Typically, mortgage rates are offered in 0.125% increments. We're able to track...
Mortgage Rates Improve Slightly

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by Matthew Graham on October 02 2018, 3:46 PM

Mortgage rates fell modestly today, and thus managed to avoid heading any closer to the 7-year highs just overhead. Underlying bond markets benefited from concerns about Italy's stance on the Euro currency based on one Italian official's comments. Those...
Mortgage Rates Bounce Back Toward Recent Highs

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by Matthew Graham on October 01 2018, 4:37 PM

After hitting the lowest levels in exactly 2 weeks on Friday, mortgage rates bounced back up toward their recent highs today. This risk was already taking shape by Friday afternoon as the bond markets that underlie mortgage rates had deteriorated throughout...
Mortgage Rates at 2-Week Lows

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by Matthew Graham on September 28 2018, 4:25 PM

Mortgage rates were slightly lower again today, but there are some caveats. First of all, the average lender wasn't in substantially better shape compared to yesterday afternoon. On top of that, bond markets (the underpinnings of mortgage rates) weakened...

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