Mortgage Rates Predictions and Analysis

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Why Have "Points" Made a Big Resurgence In The Mortgage...

Mortgage Market is Freaking People Out

Mortgage Rates Are Amazing and Terrible

Mortgage Market is Still a Mess, But a Hopeful One

The MOST Volatile Day For Mortgages

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Why Have "Points" Made a Big Resurgence In The Mortgage Market?

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by Matthew Graham on April 06 2020, 4:55 PM

The most important ingredient in the mortgage market is the presence of homeowners--prospective or otherwise--with the means and desire to make monthly payments. That fact invites investors to earn solid, predictable returns with almost no risk. After...
Mortgage Market is Freaking People Out

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by Matthew Graham on March 31 2020, 5:30 PM

There are too many counter-intuitive and frustrating developments in the mortgage market to comprehend all at one time, let alone discuss. That's not a cop-out as much as it is a favor I'm doing for you. If we tried to cover all of the nonsensical ground...
Mortgage Rates Are Amazing and Terrible

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by Matthew Graham on March 25 2020, 6:42 PM

Depending on what you're looking at, when you look, and where you look, mortgage rates could either be amazing or terrible. Large, upstanding, secure, solvent, excellent lenders are as much as a full percentage point apart from one another on the same...
Mortgage Market is Still a Mess, But a Hopeful One

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by Matthew Graham on March 24 2020, 6:36 PM

There is a LOT of misinformation flying around out there about the mortgage market, the Fed, and the various impacts on rates from the government's coronavirus response. If you're in the market for big-picture overviews of all the relevant considerations...
The MOST Volatile Day For Mortgages

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by Matthew Graham on March 19 2020, 5:42 PM

Today was the most volatile day in the history of the mortgage market in many regards. There were days in the early 80's that saw rates move by similar amounts, but none of them saw the underlying market for mortgage bonds move back and forth by such...
NO, You Can't Get That New 0% Mortgage Rate You Heard About

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by Matthew Graham on March 16 2020, 5:40 PM

Lots of words recently and lots to do for all of us, so let's make this simple. No, you can't get a that new 0% mortgage rate you heard about! It doesn't exist. That's the Fed Funds Rate. It applies to overnight loans between the biggest financial institutions...
What The Fed's Emergency Rate Cut Means For Mortgage Rates

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by Matthew Graham on March 15 2020, 5:45 PM

There are a lot of words here. If you have a mortgage you might ever refinance (and especially if you think Sunday's emergency Fed news means you can now get a lower rate), read every last one of them. Background: Fed's Emergency Rate Cut and QE It's...
Mortgage Rates Are Taking an Utter Beating (Relatively)

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by Matthew Graham on March 12 2020, 9:16 PM

In all my years of following mortgage rates I haven't seen anything quite like the current environment. 2008 came fairly close, but the vibe was decidedly different. Rates were far from all-time lows back then. When they moved to the lowest levels in...
Mortgage Rates Rising at Fastest Pace in Years

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by Matthew Graham on March 11 2020, 4:46 PM

Mortgage rates continued a relentless surge higher today. The move began in earnest yesterday for two key reasons: bond market panic and mortgage market over-supply. If you take nothing else away from the following, the important part to understand is...
Mortgage Rates Spiking Quickly as Bond Market Panics

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by Matthew Graham on March 10 2020, 5:47 PM

Mortgage rates have exploded higher over the past day and a half as the bond market sends threatening signals about a big picture bounce off the recent lows. This is made all the more jarring by the timing and the scope of the movement, as well as the...
Mortgage Rates Are Flat To HIGHER Today (Yes, Really)

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by Matthew Graham on March 09 2020, 5:02 PM

Mortgage rates would kindly like to reserve the right not to make sense to you, or anyone else these days. They haven't been pulled in so many directions and for such esoteric reasons since at least 2008. Even then, as the mortgage meltdown came to a...
Lot's Of Confusion About Mortgage Rates This Week. Here's What's Up

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by Matthew Graham on March 06 2020, 7:28 PM

Mortgage rates remain at or near all time lows , but they haven't moved much since hitting them earlier this week--at least on average. In fact, the average lender INCREASED rates just slightly today--a turn of events that's fairly mind-boggling for those...
All-Time Low Mortgage Rates Will Create All-Time High Confusion Tomorrow

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by Matthew Graham on March 04 2020, 5:21 PM

Mortgage rates have progressively hit newer and lower all time lows every day this week, but there's one massive catch. Rates and fees have been extraordinarily different depending on the lender. Some are offering conventional 30yr fixed rates that are...
Rates at All-Time Lows No Thanks to Fed's Emergency Cut

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by Matthew Graham on March 03 2020, 5:03 PM

This is mostly a reprint of a piece I wrote earlier today for the MBS Commentary channel. If you read that one, you've basically already seen what follows The Fed announced an emergency rate cut of 50bps today (0.50%). Great! So your mortgage rate could...
Mortgage Rates Hit All-Time Lows, Is It Time To Lock?

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by Matthew Graham on March 02 2020, 9:24 AM

Mortgage rates officially hit all-time lows this morning. Even so, it continues to be the case that Treasury yields (often referred to as the basis for mortgage rates) are falling much faster. That's because Treasuries aren't actually the basis for mortgage...

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