Mortgage Rates Predictions and Analysis

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Mortgage Rates Catch a Break

Mortgage Rates Bounce Back

Mortgage Rates Mostly Hold Near Lows, But Things Could Change...

Mortgage Rates End Week Near Long-Term Lows

Mortgage Rates Ebb Higher, But Only Slightly

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GDP Growth Called "Transitory" While Low Inflation...

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MBS RECAP: Bonds Make Good on Threats of Weakness

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Fueled by Low Rates, Prepayment Rate Continues to Rise

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Is Trade Hurting Housing? Transitory Growth and Permanently Low Inflation?

Published: 5/22/2019

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Mortgage Rates Catch a Break

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by Matthew Graham on May 22 2019, 4:53 PM

Mortgage rates moved higher at a pace that was probably quicker than the average homebuyer would like yesterday . That was part of a 4 day move leading back up from the lowest levels in more than a year (or close to them, depending on the lender). That...
Mortgage Rates Bounce Back

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by Matthew Graham on May 21 2019, 4:50 PM

Mortgage rates had a fairly decent day yesterday as far as most lenders are concerned. A few lenders saw fit to bump rates up in the afternoon following a day of weakness in the bond market (which directly affects the rates lenders can offer). Because...
Mortgage Rates Mostly Hold Near Lows, But Things Could Change Tomorrow

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by Matthew Graham on May 20 2019, 5:18 PM

Mortgage rates moved microscopically higher today, depending on the lender. In terms of underlying movement in the bond market, however, rates should have risen a bit more than they did. This has to do with the timing of the bond market weakness and the...
Mortgage Rates End Week Near Long-Term Lows

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by Matthew Graham on May 17 2019, 3:35 PM

Wednesday was the best day this week for Mortgage rates with the average lender at the lowest levels in more than a month and very close to the lowest levels in more than a year. Things changed on Thursday with rates moving up slightly. That said, Thursday...
Mortgage Rates Ebb Higher, But Only Slightly

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by Matthew Graham on May 16 2019, 4:37 PM

Mortgage rates hit the lowest levels in more than a month yesterday and came very close to the lowest levels in more than a year. Things changed today , but only slightly. Without a fresh supply of drama or weaker economic data, the bond market deteriorated...
Rates Close In On Lowest Levels in Over a Year

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by Matthew Graham on May 15 2019, 4:48 PM

Mortgage rates have had a few first world problems to complain about recently. Well, there's really only been one: a relative inability to keep pace with the broader decline in rates as seen in the Treasury market. If Treasuries are the "master," mortgage...
Mortgage Rates Holding Near Recent Lows Ahead of Retail Sales Data

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by Matthew Graham on May 14 2019, 4:22 PM

It's been a while since the bond market (which dictates rates) has been able to digest what we would consider to be a "top tier" economic report. Why do we care about such things? Simply put, economic data is one of the key considerations for bonds. Stronger...
Lowest Mortgage Rates in More Than a Month

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by Matthew Graham on May 13 2019, 4:37 PM

Mortgage rates moved moderately lower to start the new week as trade tensions remained in focus. In general, the worse the US/China trade relationship is looking at any given moment, the better it has been for the bond market (and the worse it's been...
Rates End Week at Highs as Drama Dies Down

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by Matthew Graham on May 10 2019, 5:12 PM

Mortgage rates moved up on Friday, ultimately making it to the highest levels of the week for the average lender. Underlying bond markets came under pressure as Trump made several reassuring comments about the future potential for a trade agreement between...
Mortgage Rates Unchanged to Slightly Lower

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by Matthew Graham on May 09 2019, 4:07 PM

Mortgage rates were just slightly lower on average today with some lenders flat and others distinctly lower. The discrepancy is due to the timing of yesterday's market movements and the corresponding lender reactions. Some lenders saw enough weakness...
Mortgage Rates Sideways to Slightly Higher

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by Matthew Graham on May 08 2019, 4:42 PM

Mortgage rates began the day in decent shape after more trade war drama courtesy of a Reuters story overnight. In general, trade war drama pushes stock prices and bond yields (aka "rates") lower. But as we discussed yesterday, mortgage rates hadn't been...
Mortgage Rates Stay Sideways Despite Bond Market Gains

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by Matthew Graham on May 07 2019, 5:53 PM

Mortgage rates didn't move much today, if at all. This is confounding to all those who have watched rates against the backdrop of 10yr Treasury yields (and especially those who don't qualify their view that "mortgage rates follow the 10yr Treasury yield...
Lowest Mortgage Rates in a Month

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by Matthew Graham on May 06 2019, 4:17 PM

Mortgage rates dropped noticeably this morning as financial markets opened sharply changed from Friday's latest levels thanks to Trump trade tweets over the weekend. The stock market dropped to its lowest levels in several weeks before bouncing back as...
Mortgage Rates Hold Ground Despite Stronger Jobs Report

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by Matthew Graham on May 03 2019, 5:02 PM

Mortgage rates were flat today, which is a victory considering the big jobs report was stronger than expected. Typically, labor market strength--especially when seen in this particular report--is bad news for rates, but it didn't happen today. In fact...
Mortgage Rates Are Actually Higher This Week

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by Matthew Graham on May 02 2019, 5:04 PM

Mortgage rates didn't move much today, but the average lender is quoting microscopically higher rates, if anything. Week-over-week, it wouldn't be unfair to claim that rates are slightly lower. Today's average news coverage suggests the same due to the...

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