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Mortgage Rates
30 Yr FRM 5.01% 0.03%
15 Yr FRM 4.40% 0.01%
1 Yr ARM 4.22% -0.07%
5/1 Yr ARM 4.27% 0.02%
30 YR Tres 4.50% 0.01%
Fed Prime 3.25% 0.00%

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  • Short Term Direction of Mortgage Rates Dependent Upon Auctions and Stocks

    by Victor Burek on February 08 2010, 10:06 AM

    Nothing has changed from Friday. Mortgage rates continue to run into a floor at 4.75%. This has held true all month! My lock bias is based on the big picture outlook. Barring a major shift in sentiment that drives benchmark Treasury yields lower, mortgage rates should move higher in months to come. While floating day to day can result in small reductions in borrowing costs, the risk of rates rising is large. This is long term guidance. If you are looking to continuing floating, keep an eye on the stock market. If stocks extend recent weakness I wouldn’t be totally against floating overnight, but again I point out the 4.755 floor we appear to have hit in mortgage rates. On the other hand, if stocks rally, money will flow out of the fixed income sector which would most likely lead to worse mortgage pricing and higher rates. This highlights why we continue to advise locking: the amount of risk associated with floating are not justified by the possible reward. There is still much more room for rates to rise than to fall.
  • How Did The Employment Report Affect Mortgage Rates?

    by Victor Burek on February 05 2010, 10:37 AM

    When considering the LOCK vs FLOAT decision, I think of it as so: WE ARE PLAYING CHESS, NOT CHECKERS. My lock bias is based on the big picture outlook. Mortgage rates are currently priced near very aggressive levels. Barring a major shift in sentiment that drives benchmark Treasury yields lower, mortgage rates should move higher in months to come. While floating day to day can result in small reductions in borrowing costs, the risk of rates rising is large. This is long term guidance.
  • Lenders Improve Mortgage Rates as Stocks Panic. Locking Ahead of Employment Report

    by Victor Burek on February 04 2010, 5:12 PM

    I have been advising LOCK all week ahead of the Employment Situation Report, which will be released at 8:30am tomorrow morning. While there have been many whispers for both job losses and job creation, economists are very mixed about the outlook. Worse than expected jobs numbers benefit MBS prices and lead to lower mortgage rates while better than expected data leads to higher mortgage rates. Despite what I believe is a good chance of a bad report tomorrow, I am still advising to lock loans today. If the jobs data is worse than expected, rates could decline, but lenders have proven slow to pass along better rates so there is not much room for rates to fall further. If the jobs number is better than forecast or "on the screws", rates will rise quickly, ESPECIALLY AFTER TODAY'S RALLY. In my opinion, there is little reward and MUCH RISK in floating. Mortgage rates are near their best levels in over a month, still locking.
  • Mortgage Demand Picks Up Ahead of Expected Rise in Rates

    by Victor Burek on February 03 2010, 10:10 AM

    Michael Fratantoni, MBA's VP of Research and Economics, warned to expect rising mortgage rates over the next few months as the Fed exits the MBS buying program. This is line with recent guidance issued on Mortgage News Daily. Don’t wait for mortgage rates to decline! I stand by my statement that 4.75% could very well be the lowest mortgage rates offered in 2010...unless there is a fundamental shift in economic outlook. If you have been waiting to refinance or to buy, get out there and start the process before you miss the boat of sub 5% rates.
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  • Mortgage Rates Steady Near What Might Be The Best Levels of the Year

    by Victor Burek on February 02 2010, 10:15 AM

    Reports from fellow mortgage professionals indicate lender rate sheets to be similar to yesterday’s...again. This keeps the par 30 year conventional rate mortgage in the 4.75% to 5.00% range for well qualified consumers. To secure a par interest rate you must have a FICO credit score of 740 or higher, a loan to value at 80% or less and pay all closing costs including an estimated one point loan origination/discount/broker fee. My lock advice will be the same as yesterday. I feel 4.75% is the bottom we will see with mortgage rates. If you are within 30 days of closing, you should strongly consider locking as we believe mortgage rates will be on the rise in the months to come.
  • Mortgage Rates Prepare for Busy Week of Econ Data

    by Victor Burek on February 01 2010, 10:30 AM

    With the Employment Situation report due out later this week and mortgage rates holding at the best levels of the year, I continue to advise locking. Without a fundamental shift in economic outlook (for the worse), I do not think we will see rates below current levels. If the employment situation report is much worse than expected, it might influence a fundamental shift and rates could possibly move lower. However, we have never seen mortgage rates for a 30 year fixed dropped below 4.5%(some lenders were offering 4.375% for clients with FICO’s above 740 and loan to values below 60%). So by floating, the most you could possibly gain is a 0.25% lower rate but you risk rates moving higher....and remember rates rise much faster than they fall.
  • Mortgage Rates End Choppy Week Near Best Levels

    by Victor Burek on January 29 2010, 10:19 AM

    Following the release of much better than expected 4th Quarter GDP, mortgage-backed security prices fell. This forced lenders to move mortgage rates slightly higher early on in the day. That didn't last long though. Around lunch time MBS prices began to improve. After the lunch hour, momentum picked up and lenders started repricing for the better. The par 30 year conventional rate mortgage rate ends the week in the 4.75% to 5.125% range for well qualified consumers. While I am not totally against floating over the weekend, I still can't provide enough justification to ignore currently aggressive mortgage rates, especially after lenders repriced for the better this afternoon.
  • Mortgage Rates Move Higher Again. Stocks Influencing Lock/Float Decisions

    by Victor Burek on January 28 2010, 10:06 AM

    I have been advising LOCK all week. If you locked, way to go! Good timing. If you did not lock, we have some deep thinking to do. I think the easiest way to gauge that decision is: DO YOU THINK STOCKS ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO SELL OFF or DO YOU THINK STOCKS WILL CORRECT FROM RECENT WEAKNESS. Given the relentless rally we saw in stocks from March until just recently, and the marginally more optimistic FOMC statement, I would think stocks would recover from recent weakness. This would put added pressure on interest rates to rise. Tomorrow, we get several economic reports to influence our decision, including the first read on Q4 2009 GDP, Chicago PMI and Consumer Sentiment. We know 4th quarter GDP was strong, combine that with the fact that stocks are searching for a reason to rally, and the outlook for interest rates is not consumer friendly.I think mortgage rates are still super aggressive. I would be locking still.
  • Mortgage Rates Move Higher After FOMC Meeting

    by Victor Burek on January 27 2010, 5:33 PM

    MORTGAGE RATES MOVED HIGHER AFTER THE FOMC RELEASE. Reports from fellow mortgage professionals now indicate lender rate sheets to be worse than yesterday’s. Lenders continue to offer the best mortgage rates we've seen since early December. While I am tempted to see if rates keep moving higher tomorrow, I think borrowers should still be locking in their loans. Like yesterday, if you want to risk it and continue to float keep an eye on the equities market. If stocks move higher tomorrow, mortgage rates should move higher. The safe call is to take advantage of the recent price gains and lock.
  • Locking Loans Ahead of Treasury Auctions and FOMC Statement

    by Victor Burek on January 26 2010, 10:07 AM

    Reports from fellow mortgage professionals indicate lenders have passed along better rates this morning. The par 30 year conventional rate mortgage has once again fallen to the 4.75% to 5.00% range for well qualified consumers. To secure a par interest rate you must have a FICO credit score of 740 or higher, a loan to value at 80% or less and pay all closing costs including an estimated one point loan origination/discount/broker fee. For consumers with lower scores to secure a par rate, they will be required to pay higher fees. With a busy week ahead and the Fed statement due out tomorrow, I still favor locking over floating. To be more specific on timing, if you have not locked I think you should strongly consider taking this morning's improvements before the Treasury releases auction results at 1pm. If you are a risk taker and want to continue to float keep an eye on the stock market. It has had a higher impact on interet rates lately, we refer to this relationship as the stock lever. If stocks move higher, mortgage rates will likely increase.
  • Mortgage Rates Rise Ahead of FOMC Meeting and Treasury Auctions

    by Victor Burek on January 25 2010, 11:02 AM

    Reports from fellow mortgage professionals indicate lender rate sheets to be worse than Friday. The par 30 year conventional rate mortgage has risen to the 4.875% to 5.125% range for well qualified consumers.These rates are the most aggressive in the mortgage market, only very well qualified consumers will have access to these borrowing costs. To secure a par rate you must have a FICO credit score of 740 or higher, a loan to value at 80% or less. These quotes also assume the borrower is willing to pay all closing costs including an estimated one point loan origination/discount/broker fee. Your mortgage professional should be able to provide you with a breakeven analysis to determine the optimal fee vs interest rate. If you didn’t follow our LOCK advice from last week, that means you are still floating today. While lenders were likely conservative today, I am still favoring locking in loans. .
  • Locking My Loans After a Week of Mortgage Rate Improvements

    by Victor Burek on January 22 2010, 10:24 AM

    With lenders still offering the best rates we've seen in over a month and further progress unknown in the rates market, I still think most should be locking in their mortgage rate. As I said yesterday, we have picked up significant gains this week, by locking you take advantage of those gains and remove risks. At this point, without a fundamental shift in investor sentiment or the economy, it is going to be very difficult for mortgage rates to move much lower. In my opinion you do not have much to gain by floating.
  • Mortgage Rates Hit New 2010 Lows as Stocks Sell

    by Victor Burek on January 21 2010, 11:26 AM

    With lenders still offering the best rates we've seen in over a month and further progress unknown in the rates market, I think most should consider locking in their mortgage rate. As I said yesterday, we have picked up significant gains this week, by locking now you take advantage of those gains and remove risks of rising rates. At this point, without a fundamental shift in investor sentiment or the economy, it is going to be very difficult for mortgage rates to move much lower. In my opinion you do not have much to gain by floating. Also like yesterday, I am not totally against floating into tomorrow, but do feel the recent price gains warrant locking in loans. If you do decide to continue floating, you should be re-evaluating your stance on a daily basis.
  • Mortgage Rates Move Lower. Favor Locking over Floating

    by Victor Burek on January 20 2010, 10:31 AM

    Reports from fellow mortgage professionals indicate improved rate sheets this morning. The par 30 year conventional rate mortgage has dipped to the 4.75% to 5.00% range for well qualified consumers.If you have been floating your rate for some time, you have picked up noticeable gains over the course of the week. With that in mind, there is nothing wrong with taking your chips off the table by locking your loan now. If you have been waiting to pull the trigger for mortgage rates to decline back to the low’s of last year, I would suggest that you stop waiting...LOCK NOW. While I am not totally against floating into tomorrow, I think recent gains justify some profit taking.
  • Mortgage Rates Steady at Aggressive Levels

    by Victor Burek on January 19 2010, 12:57 PM

    Reports from fellow mortgage professionals indicate lender rate sheets to be unchanged this morning. The par 30 year conventional rate mortgage remains in the 4.875% to 5.125% range for well qualified consumers, a few lenders are still offering 4.75%, but not many. Last week I advised that I am providing lock float guidance on a very short term basis. In the near term, as in this week, I expect to see only marginal mortgage rate improvements, nothing huge. I am thinking that locking before Thursday will likely be the best strategy (lock before the Treasury announces debt supply later this week). While I am comfortable with a float recommendation into next week, I must share with you that we are very defensive of these mortgage rate improvements. We don't see gains being a long lasting trend. With that in mind, if you are closing in the next month, you should be looking to lock in soon. If you are a "fence sitter" or have an Interest Only ARM that is about to adjust, you should be considering a refinance before interest rates start rising. I hope its obvious how defensive we are...floating one day at a time.
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