Mortgage Rates Predictions and Analysis

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Most Mortgage Rate Headlines Are Wrong Today

Rates End 6-Day Streak at Record Lows

New Mortgage Rate Record; What Is a "Top Tier" Scenario...

Should You Wait For Lower Rates?

Mortgage Rates Fall Nicely, But The Going Gets Tougher From Here

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Most Mortgage Rate Headlines Are Wrong Today

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by Matthew Graham on August 06 2020, 5:05 PM

There are quite a few more new stories than normal about mortgage rates today. Most of them are wrong. This one is not, and it's pretty easy to see why. Freddie Mac releases its weekly mortgage rate survey every Thursday morning. The survey accepts responses...
Rates End 6-Day Streak at Record Lows

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by Matthew Graham on August 05 2020, 5:18 PM

Mortgage rates cooled off today, rising for the first time since July 27th for the average lender. Between now and then we've seen a string of what have mostly been new record lows with top tier 30yr fixed offerings well under 3%. For more on what constitutes...
New Mortgage Rate Record; What Is a "Top Tier" Scenario?

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by Matthew Graham on August 04 2020, 4:51 PM

Mortgage rates are on a tear, with the average lender easily hitting new all-time lows today. How low is that? At this point it's safe to say that anything over 3% is too high as long as we're talking about a top tier scenario. So let's take a moment...
Should You Wait For Lower Rates?

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by Matthew Graham on July 31 2020, 5:09 PM

Mortgage rates have fallen more aggressively than ever and they've been remarkably willing to set record after record. So is there any reason you shouldn't wait for them to go even lower? This is an age old question any time rates fall to long-term lows...
Mortgage Rates Fall Nicely, But The Going Gets Tougher From Here

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by Matthew Graham on July 29 2020, 4:34 PM

Mortgage rates improved nicely overnight. The average lender's morning rates were very close to the lowest levels ever . This was a distinct possibility based on yesterday afternoon's bond market movement. Mortgage rates are most directly influenced by...
Mortgage Rates Mixed, Depending on Lender

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by Matthew Graham on July 28 2020, 5:05 PM

Mortgage rates did something over the past 3 days that they haven't done since early June . They moved sideways to slightly higher ! At the same time, interest rates in the broader bond market have been flashing a warning that the past 6 weeks of improvement...
Mortgage Rates Edge Slightly Higher Again

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by Matthew Graham on July 27 2020, 4:58 PM

Mortgage rates have been falling so much and with such regularity in 2020 that there's scarcely been a reason (or even an opportunity) to talk about anything else. Now suddenly, we have 2 straight business days with the average lender's rates getting...
How Low Can Rates Eventually Go?

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by Matthew Graham on July 24 2020, 4:16 PM

The bond market saw yet another week with rates in a holding pattern at historic lows. With coronavirus being the primary motivation for rates, it wouldn't be a surprise to see indecision continue until we get a clearer idea of how things will shake out...
Mortgage Rates Struggling to Set New Records

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by Matthew Graham on July 23 2020, 5:01 PM

Mortgage rates improved almost imperceptibly this morning compared to yesterday afternoon. With that, the average lender was just a hair below the previous all-time lows, but by an amount that's so small as to not really matter to the average mortgage...
Mortgage Rates Are Still Amazing, But Improving at a Slower Pace Now

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by Matthew Graham on July 21 2020, 4:25 PM

Mortgage rates have been holding a very narrow range since July 9th. They also hit new all-time lows on July 9th. A few of the days since then have been slightly better and--less frequently--slightly worse, but any one of them is noticeably better than...
Is It Already Time To Refinance Again?

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by Matthew Graham on July 17 2020, 4:46 PM

Markets continue to focus on coronavirus numbers first and foremost. When the news is good , we tend to see stocks and rates move higher. When the news is bad , rates tend to fall and stocks struggle to improve. The movement is usually more pronounced...
Mortgage Rates Under 3% For The First Time (Again)

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by Matthew Graham on July 16 2020, 3:59 PM

Mortgage rates moved lower this morning as lenders got caught up with recent improvement in the bond market. The bond market is the primary consideration for interest rate levels and investors have remained eager to buy bonds for a variety of reasons...
Mortgage Rates Fight The Urge To Move Higher

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by Matthew Graham on July 14 2020, 4:56 PM

Mortgage rates recovered to some extent today, after moving slightly higher on Friday and yesterday. The bond market (which underlies rate movement) was surprisingly resilient (good for rates) even as stock prices moved up roughly 1%. Rising stock prices...
Mortgage Rates Have Moved Up From Last Week's Lows

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by Matthew Graham on July 13 2020, 3:58 PM

Mortgage rates definitely hit the lowest all-time lows of all-time last week, at least for conventional 30yr fixed scenarios without many risk-based adjustments. The most recently available Freddie Mac rate survey (which drives a majority of mortgage...
Mortgage Market Ridiculously Good or Just Ridiculous?

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by Matthew Graham on July 10 2020, 4:46 PM

It should no longer come as a surprise that the pandemic continues to create never-before-seen circumstances in all corners of society. Here in the housing and mortgage markets, one of the first major manifestations of the crisis was a quick move to incredibly...

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