Mortgage Rates Predictions and Analysis

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February Easily The Worst Month For Rates in Long Time

Time to Wake Up To The New Mortgage Rate Reality

Yes, Mortgage Rates are MUCH Higher This Week

Rates Surge; Time To Adjust Your Mortgage Game Plan

When Will The Mortgage Market Actually Care About Rising Rates...

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Published: 2/23/2021

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February Easily The Worst Month For Rates in Long Time

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by Matthew Graham on February 22 2021, 6:06 PM

There are still 4 business days left in the month of February and thus still 4 days for the bond market to undergo an epic recovery that helps mortgage rates come back down. But traders and market-watchers alike have pined for--if not outright expected...
Time to Wake Up To The New Mortgage Rate Reality

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by Matthew Graham on February 19 2021, 5:54 PM

There's no precedent for the winning streak enjoyed by mortgage rates in the 2nd half of 2020. We've never seen so many new record lows in the same year, and we never spent as much time at those lows (not even close). All of the above makes it easy to...
Yes, Mortgage Rates are MUCH Higher This Week

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by Matthew Graham on February 17 2021, 4:18 PM

Volatility has returned to the mortgage market in grand fashion this week with many lenders quoting rates that are as much as a quarter of a point higher than they were last week. That means if you were looking at something in the 2.75% neighborhood on...
Rates Surge; Time To Adjust Your Mortgage Game Plan

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by Matthew Graham on February 16 2021, 4:18 PM

Recovery prospects, renewed focus on stimulus, inflation concerns, a brighter covid outlook, etc... All of these are reasons for an ongoing, gradual trend toward higher rates in 2021 (i.e. general bond market weakness) but none of them really explain...
When Will The Mortgage Market Actually Care About Rising Rates?

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by Matthew Graham on February 11 2021, 2:37 PM

There's an obvious trend toward higher rates as far as Treasury yields are concerned. This goes all the way back to August. Treasury yields and mortgage rates historically correlate quite well. But mortgage rates have almost completely ignored that correlation...
Mortgage Rates Lowest in More Than a Week

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by Matthew Graham on February 10 2021, 4:02 PM

Mortgage rates haven't been moving much recently, but they've logged enough small victories to make it back to the lower levels seen on February 1st . Depending on the specific scenario and the lender, a quoted rate may or may not be visibly different...
Mortgage Rates Roughly Unchanged From Last Week

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by Matthew Graham on February 09 2021, 4:46 PM

Mortgage rates have been extremely stable given their proximity to all-time lows. Past precedent suggests one of two things when rates set records: a slow grind lower with additional periodic records or a rather abrupt bounce back in the other direction...
Rates Under Pressure Despite Weak Jobs Report

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by Matthew Graham on February 05 2021, 5:15 PM

Economic data is traditionally one of the key contributors to interest rate movement. Of the regularly-scheduled reports, none has more market-moving street cred than The Employment Situation--otherwise known as "the jobs report" or simply NFP (due to...
Mortgage Rate Volatility Could Increase After Tomorrow's Jobs Report

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by Matthew Graham on February 04 2021, 4:02 PM

Mortgage Rates have risen modestly over the past few days with the average lender now offering the highest rates in roughly 2 weeks. The ground covered during that time is fairly underwhelming unless you make a habit of examining day-to-day rate movement...
Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher

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by Matthew Graham on February 02 2021, 3:44 PM

Mortgage Rates were steady to slightly lower yesterday even though prevailing trends in the bond market suggested caution. Today's trading is a different story. Granted, there haven't been any huge, dramatic moves, but today's bond market weakness adds...
Mortgage Rates Hold Steady to Start New Week

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by Matthew Graham on February 01 2021, 3:40 PM

Mortgage Rates did well last week, with the average lender getting very close to long-term lows by Wednesday. After that, however, volatility in the bond market caused some concern about an unfriendly shift in rate momentum. Today's trading helps soothe...
Why Mortgage Rates Should Care About Bond Market Warning

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by Matthew Graham on January 29 2021, 4:52 PM

After spiking in early January, interest rates returned to near-all-time-low levels by the middle of the week. By the end, however, the market began to flash a warning about more volatility ahead. The warning is fairly simple. It has to do with a pattern...
Mortgage Rates Start Strong But End Higher

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by Matthew Graham on January 28 2021, 4:10 PM

Mortgage rates have had a great couple of weeks after jumping to multi-month highs at the beginning of January. By yesterday, they'd made it almost all the way back to their best recent levels. The same was true this morning, but things have changed since...
Mortgage Rates Mostly Recover After Starting The Day Higher

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by Matthew Graham on January 26 2021, 4:03 PM

Mortgage rates were mixed to slightly higher today, depending on the lender. "Higher" is a relative term, in this case as the average loan seeker is unlikely to see much of a difference between yesterday's quotes and today's. Even then, the changes would...
Mortgage Rates Down Only Slightly Despite Bond Market Rally

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by Matthew Graham on January 25 2021, 4:24 PM

What's a bond market rally and why should mortgage rates care? There are all kinds of bonds. US Treasuries would be the quintessential example, but there are also bonds specific to the mortgage market. These are what groups of loans ultimately become...

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