Housing Finance Reform: Bad Time for GSEs to Go Away; Banker MLO Licensing Deadline; Foreclosure Fines in California;
Huh? Maybe Freddie and Fannie are
not going to evaporate, which many in the industry were not looking forward to
anyway: MSNBCAgencies
One servicing manager from a
large institution wrote to me and said, "If you look at the delinquencies
at the agencies versus the market, Freddie & Fannie are a much smaller
percentage. If FNMA and Freddie 'own' half the mortgages, but their
delinquencies are much lower than other institutions during that time period
who were buying loans, what does that say?"
A security, backed by mortgages,
is not a bad thing, and, if properly constructed, is a very good thing. Many
will argue that the market was working well until 2002, when the
residential mortgage backed security market (RMBS) began to experiment with
non-traditional structures, AND non-traditional mortgages. CDO's
(collateralized debt obligations) and synthetic CDO's were rolled out, taking
pieces of higher-risk RMBS tranches and securitizing them... but we digress. The
plans that the Treasury presented, focusing on the phasing out of Fannie and
Freddie, may not fully consider the implications to our housing market. Lew
Ranieri recently spoke out on the issue. "...why we created the mortgage
security in the first place, 'cause it can't fund housing on a balance sheet
because it requires too much equity-you can do some, but you can't do
most...The government has to make a decision that all be it we want to
transition to a more public market, a non-government market...In the meantime
if you have the only source of current credit being the government, tight, like
this, you just keep the overhang going, prices go down, more people become
under water-it becomes a vicious circle...the core problems are still there,
despite all the good new regulations and rules...Until the people in the chain
have responsibility and will be held to those responsibilities, just like we
are when we sell stocks, you won't fix this."
"MLOs employed by
federally regulated institutions have until July 29 to become actively
registered on NMLS. Even though the individual MLO is responsible to
register, the employing institution must also complete a number of steps in
order for the MLO to become actively registered. These steps include creating
the institution's account, submitting the Form MU1R, and confirming each MLOs'
employment within NMLS." But is your company required to go through NMLS
training? Here's a site to find out: NMLS
All I can do is shake my head and
stare out the window. A new bill written up by a California Assembly member
calls for a $20,000 fee to be charged to banks for every foreclosure they
carry out in the state, with the aim being reducing foreclosures. (One
would think that the goal is to make lending less attractive for lenders in
California, but I'll hold my comments.) Assembly Bill (AB) 935 would fine
mortgage lenders or loan servicers $20,000 per foreclosure in the form of a
"foreclosure mitigation charge," creating incentives to offer loan
modifications or refinance alternatives. The bill would supposedly generate up
to $16 billion over the next two years, as nearly 800,000 foreclosures are
expected in the Golden State. Someone had better tell Assemblyman Blumenfield
about how changes in servicing released premiums factor into pricing for
mortgages for potential new homeowners.
More reader input. "As an
appraiser, I read with great interest your notes from Friday, saying, 'One of
the more troubling Realtor strategies is to threaten the business relationship
with a LO if a loan does not go through, or is not on time, regardless of
whether or not the loan makes sense for the buyer. (If I couldn't do the loan)
they would find another lender who would do it and they would make sure that no
other Realtors used my company in the future.' I would like to point out that
up until recently, appraisers heard the same thing from LO's everywhere: 'If
you can't bring this in near value, we'll find someone who can.' Have LO's
forgotten that phrase?"
"Those thinking QRM
underwriting rules are similar to GSE underwriting guidelines, need to
reconsider. 'Guidelines 'are flexible to some extent & penalties for
mistakes (buybacks) can be expensive, but rarely are. 'Rules' are enforced
rigidly by regulators with expensive penalties, license actions, felonies, and
private action. People in the industry should realize that a whole new world of
mortgage credit tightening is coming."
As most Lock Desk folks know,
there was little to cheer about last week. The MBA reported that its application
index dropped 5.6%, with refi's dipping slightly, and "The seasonally
adjusted Purchase Index decreased 13.6 percent to its lowest level since
February 25, 2011, driven by a 26.6 percent decrease in government purchase
applications." SEE CHARTS
ING reminded
brokers that, "For all Purchase Transactions, your Good Faith Estimate
MUST include an estimated cost for Owner's Title Insurance in Block 5. An
amount must be provided regardless of who is selecting or paying for it.
If your GFE Block 5 is not complete, your application will not be accepted
regardless of your ability to cure this charge at closing. You may
re-submit the application with a corrected GFE after 60 days."
To the surprise of no one, the
S&P Case-Shiller HPI (Home Price Index) declined 3.3% in February from a
year ago on the 20-city composite, and the 10-city composite was down 2.6% YOY.
From a year ago, only Washington DC reported appreciation at 2.7%, while
Phoenix and Minneapolis experienced the largest declines at over 8%. 10 of the
20 cities recorded new lows. Economists believe that with already weak home
values declining further, refinancing activity will remain limited and keep
prepayment speeds relatively slow - a positive with much of the market trading
at a premium. At the same time, while affordability holds near record highs,
homebuyers may be hesitant to purchase just yet with prices still sliding
lower. FULL STORY
Looking at the markets, things
aren't too bad, and Tuesday both stocks and bonds did well. This
surprised some, given that we're still grappling with rising oil, gold, and
commodity prices, a raging deficit, and problems overseas. The 10-yr Treasury
closed at 3.32%. On the mortgage side, agency MBS prices improved by about .125
- .250 and one trader commented, "High price and low yield levels have
relegated REITs and banks mostly to the sidelines, while other investors were
mixed. In general, hedge funds and structured desks were buying..."
This morning we learned that
March Durable Goods were up 2.5% versus +.7% in February. The markets seem to
believe that the highlight of Wednesday's session will be the first ever
post-FOMC press conference beginning at 2:15 EST with Chairman Bernanke
discussing the Committee's "current economic projections and to provide
additional context for the FOMC's policy decisions," as stated in the
press release. We also have a $35 billion 5-yr auction. Across the Atlantic,
things don't look so good in Greece as their 2-yr note yield climbed to 25%.
Investing in that is not for the timid. And after 3 consecutive up days
Treasuries are down this morning due to some profit taking: the 10-yr is at
3.35% and MBS prices are worse a smidge.
(A "joke" to think about...)
Five guys are stranded on an island.
One guy gets the daily firewood, one guy bakes the daily bread, one
guy climbs to the top of the mountain to get fresh water, one guy fishes
all day to bring home dinner, and one guy does nothing but consume the
firewood, the bread, the water, and the fish.
One day the workers ask the fifth guy why he doesn't get the items
himself, and he replies, "Without me, none of you would be employed."