MBS CLOSE: What Dreams May Come?

re: MBS CLOSE: What Dreams May Come?

Craig LaBruno — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 12:47:10 GMT

I doubt it because it's still higher than last month and I believe we would have had to see a better number or at least a number equal to last month (9.4) to see treasurys sell off and equities to rise. Did you guys see the 2yr go under 1%?

re: MBS CLOSE: What Dreams May Come?

Michael Cromwell — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 12:38:41 GMT

9.5%, better than the expected 9.6%. I hope they don't turn their focus there.

re: MBS CLOSE: What Dreams May Come?

Craig LaBruno — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 12:35:10 GMT

Well we got our +600k number. Somehow they well turn all these job numbers into a positive. Very sluggish numbers from what I can tell.

re: MBS CLOSE: What Dreams May Come?

Michael Cromwell — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 12:24:29 GMT

Smart move Muir. Congrats!

re: MBS CLOSE: What Dreams May Come?

Muir Cohen — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 04:53:05 GMT

Well, my gut couldn't take it. I locked my 30 year in at 5.125, I would have been forced to lock tomorrow to make sure there was enough time for the paperwork to go through. Thanks for all the insight and commenary. I learned a lot these last few weeks!

re: MBS CLOSE: What Dreams May Come?

AJ Nosek — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 04:50:49 GMT

Thanks for all your help guys. I've been trolling this whole site about 10 times a day for the last week, and learning so much. I just locked my 5.25% with no points. $198,000 loan wth 20% down on a 30 year fixed, with a FICO of 760 in Maryland...and I can buy down my rate to 4.875% for 1.25 points. I don't close until late this month, but I will be able to handle this rate just fine. I thought I might be able to see the report come out at 8:30AM and make my move then (if I needed to), but my LO says they can't get into the system until a few hours later after they have repriced. I figure if I get too greedy, I am going to pay for it, and this is a nice low spot. So now, unfortunately, I'm rooting against all of you! Not only do I want to feel like I made a smart decision when yields skyrocket on a great jobs report, but I want to see the S&P go up as far as possible before I need to cash out my down payment, muahahha!

re: MBS CLOSE: What Dreams May Come?

AJ Nosek — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 04:50:10 GMT

re: MBS CLOSE: What Dreams May Come?

Adam Quinones — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 04:16:10 GMT

Yeh....exactly the point

re: MBS CLOSE: What Dreams May Come?

Craig LaBruno — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 03:07:30 GMT

Your dreaming if you think we're getting a 600k reading.The bulls are out and the bears are hibernating for the summer. LOL. God help us all.

re: MBS CLOSE: What Dreams May Come?

Adam Quinones — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 02:15:46 GMT

I'm nervous that stocks rally unless headline read is in 600k range. ..

re: MBS CLOSE: What Dreams May Come?

Ray Leone — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 01:34:11 GMT

I'll fess up. I've put all my eggs in tomorrow's NFP basket. Should have GUTFLOPPED on May 19th, but that's why they say hindsight is 20/20. Foremost, it is the job of the media to spin the economy positive. No Doubt About It. Not only to support the current administration (and all their mischief), but to churn the market. Remember commissions are made whether the maket goes up or down. I do not know what the exact NFP number tomorrow will be, but believe it will be more closely aligned with those of ADP. I want the economy to truly get better, too, but only after rates come back down to 4.5% where they should be so I can lock all my loans and then get a job as a Wal Mart Greeter (you did hear they are going to have health insurance, did'nt you?). Matt, a great summary of what tomorow may and may not hold for all of us. Thanks for your clear explanations.

re: MBS CLOSE: What Dreams May Come?

Michael Cromwell — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 00:30:18 GMT

One more thing that I'm considering. We were all hoping for Big Ben to emphasize the correlation of a housing recovery and a true economic recovery in his speech last week. It didn't happen. It seemed that they(Fed) were letting the markets decide which way to go. For the most part, the market responded favorably. Quite a few talking heads have jumped in since to bring the importance of a housing recovery to light. One thing that is apparent from what they're all saying and for the increase to 125% LTV in the HASP plan to work, is that rates MUST remain low. Tomorrow shouldn't hurt us too bad. Or am I just reaching?

re: MBS CLOSE: What Dreams May Come?

Michael Cromwell — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 23:11:38 GMT

Good stuff today MG!! That gut feeling got me a little yesterday on one, but I got hungry as the day wore on today. I didn't lock a few that could come back to bite me(just a little). I learned a long time ago to never let these decisions have any effect on the client. Hoping for some REAL #'s tomorrow.

re: MBS CLOSE: What Dreams May Come?

Terry wilson — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 22:56:34 GMT

So before going to bed tonight I will light two candles to the patron saint of MBS. I will ask only too things of the saint. 1.) Unemployment figures to come in above 10% 2.) New job losses at 450-500k...

re: MBS CLOSE: What Dreams May Come?

mcginnis — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 22:49:17 GMT

Great post Matt. Certainly is decision time for all of us. I hope all the rest of the loyal subscribers have revisited the GUT-FLOP posts. Looking forward to tomorrow...kind of.