MBS Commentary - All Comments

re: MBS CLOSE: Tumultuous Week Sees MBS Gain, Tsy's Lose

Bob Hill — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 17:24:20 GMT

When the 10y crossed 3.52 this week, there was heavy buying overnight by foreign and central banks. I'm pretty optimistic that if the 10y is around 3.50 on auction day, demand with be very strong and this could set the stage for at least a mini rally. The 30y auction will likely be very strong as well. The strength of the long end of the curve has really helped us over the last couple of months. MG, if I remember right, we have recovered the drop after the roll within just a day or two after settlement. Is there an underlying reason for this or have we just been lucky?

re: MBS AFTERNOON: Like It Never Happened...

Matthew Graham — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 04:24:32 GMT

Don't tell anyone JTB, but when 4.625 can be had at or close to par, lenders have a nearly unlimited well of volume in a recovering economy and stabilizing housing market, and a severely limited well of reasons to compete with each other on rate. infer from that what you will... far be it from me to say rates have more or less bottomed regardless of continued improvements in MBS price. but to whatever extent that the above factors greatly slow the pace at which price improvements are passed on in rate sheets, rates have more or less bottomed regardless of continued improvements in MBS price... The upside is that they have plenty of room to stay at 4.999999999999 (flagstar!) versus decreasing MBS prices...

re: MBS CLOSE: Tumultuous Week Sees MBS Gain, Tsy's Lose

Dan Clifton — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 00:50:24 GMT

I stand corrected, you only live thrice Mr. Bond.

re: MBS AFTERNOON: Like It Never Happened...

JTB — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 22:17:24 GMT

Hey, guys. I'm curious to you all's thoughts/hopes/dreams. You've said you remain bearish on the economy and amidst this huge rally in stocks this year, rates have "stabilized" at a pretty low level 4.75ish in my neck of the woods. Let's say, Roubini and many other economists are correct and we see an additional 20% retreat in the S&P. Would/Could we see the lows in mortgage rates for the year? I know there's more than 1 car moving through a busy intersection that determines the results, but... Your thoughts, please.

re: MBS MORNING: MBS Settling Into The Green Groove

John Stuart — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 22:02:00 GMT

LOL! Thanks AQ have a good weekend

re: MBS AFTERNOON: Like It Never Happened...

Adam Quinones — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 21:56:07 GMT

see response on MBS MORNING angelo

re: MBS MORNING: MBS Settling Into The Green Groove

Adam Quinones — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 21:51:45 GMT

HAHAHHAHAHAHA...sorry cant take anything serious when you do that John. Yes but not much John...3.62 is pretty strong support

re: MBS AFTERNOON: Like It Never Happened...

John Stuart — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 21:44:08 GMT

What do you think of the auctions next week, is there more room to run?

re: MBS MORNING: MBS Settling Into The Green Groove

John Stuart — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 21:43:32 GMT

what do you think about the auctions next week, is there more room to run?

re: MBS MORNING: MBS Settling Into The Green Groove

Adam Quinones — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 20:05:52 GMT

short covering helped 10yr prices bounce off intraday low prints....

re: MBS MORNING: MBS Settling Into The Green Groove

Adam Quinones — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 20:03:58 GMT

here is my latest tweet: saw rather large TUB trade early on followed by fast money getting back on board the steepener into refunding.

re: MBS ALERT: Falling From the Highs to the Lows

Adam Quinones — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 19:50:56 GMT

:-D thanks Frank...that's great ending to a busy week for me

re: MBS ALERT: Falling From the Highs to the Lows

Frank Ceizyk — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 19:28:13 GMT

Adam-thanks-answers provide more clarity. Videos great way to track what is moving the herd--but when I want the outside the box or the inside the inner box analysis you and Matt never disappoint. Thanks for all you do--4 fundings today that were locked at the price highs...lot to give thanks for the rest of the month....

re: MBS MORNING: MBS Settling Into The Green Groove

JTB — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 19:27:21 GMT

David--My bet is that we have gov't auction of long term date next week, and this is the 1st time the Fed is not participating in the buying. They want their yield and they want it NOW!!!

re: MBS MORNING: MBS Settling Into The Green Groove

David Haines — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 18:38:59 GMT

No one wants anything to do with the long end even after the 10.2% number. Is this purely due to inflation speculation?