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  • Mon, Jan 29 2018
  • 4:04 PM » NMHC: Apartment Market Tightness Index remained negative for Ninth Consecutive Quarter
    Published Mon, Jan 29 2018 4:04 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC): Apartment Markets Remain Soft in the January NMHC Quarterly Survey Apartment market conditions continued to soften according to results from the January National Multifamily Housing Council's (NMHC) Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions. The Market Tightness (36), Sales Volume (40) and Debt Financing (38) Indexes landed below the breakeven level of 50, while the Equity Financing Index increased to 58. In addition, the survey found that half of respondents expect green financing to increase in 2018. "The latest survey results underscored the prevailing view at our recent Apartment Strategies Conference that we are late in the current cycle," said NMHC Chief Economist Mark Obrinsky. "While some seasonality comes into play, the Market Tightness Index was a little below its long-term January average, indicating market conditions are slightly weaker than normal. Demand for apartments overall remains strong and equity capital still looks favorably on the apartment sector. However, many owners are satisfied with their holdings and more inclined to stand pat." The Market Tightness Index decreased one point to 36 - the ninth consecutive quarter of declining conditions. Just 14 percent reported tighter conditions compared to the previous three months, compared to 42 percent of senior executives who reported looser conditions. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the quarterly Apartment Tightness Index. Any reading below 50 indicates looser conditions from the previous quarter. This indicates market conditions were looser over the last quarter. As I've mentioned before, this index helped me call the bottom for effective rents (and the top for the vacancy rate) early in 2010. This is the ninth consecutive quarterly survey indicating looser conditions - it appears supply has caught up with demand - and I expect rent growth to continue to slow.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:26 PM » Markets are waging a tug-of-war between record earnings and rate hike worries
    Published Mon, Jan 29 2018 2:26 PM by CNBC
    Stocks took a breather from the record rally today, but earnings and Fed policy are still top of mind for investors.
  • 2:26 PM » Saving Rate Hits the Lowest Level Since 2005
    Published Mon, Jan 29 2018 2:26 PM by eyeonhousing.org
    The US saving rate dropped to 2.4%, according to the most recent data release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. It is the lowest level since September 2005 and a direct result of US consumer spending rising faster than income. It has been on the downward path since 2016 when rising consumption contributed to fueling economic growth. Personal consumption expenditures... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 2:25 PM » Rising interest rates knock stocks, but this isn't the big move that will kill the rally — yet
    Published Mon, Jan 29 2018 2:25 PM by CNBC
    Stocks may finally be heeding the bond market's warnings, but strategists do not see the jump in interest rates as the move that will kill the stock rally.
  • 12:44 PM » The Fed will cause a stock market correction this quarter, investment bank Stifel predicts
    Published Mon, Jan 29 2018 12:44 PM by CNBC
    Stocks will experience a correction this quarter as the Fed leads other central banks in tightening policy, Stifel says.
  • 12:09 PM » Making strong housing markets affordable with private, public, and long-distance partners
    Published Mon, Jan 29 2018 12:09 PM by webfeeds.brookings.edu
    Over the past couple of years, many have made the case for creating and preserving affordability in strong and strengthening housing markets. These opportunity areas provide access to better jobs, schools, and transit-especially in contrast to areas of concentrated poverty-and moving to better areas improves education, earnings, and overall life chances. However, living in those…                
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: webfeeds.brookings.edu
  • 12:08 PM » House Financial Services Committee to hold Jan. 30 hearing on fintech marketplace
    Published Mon, Jan 29 2018 12:08 PM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    On January 30, 2018 at 10 a.m., the Financial Institutions and Consumer Credit Subcommittee of the House Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing, “Examining Opportunities and Challenges in the Financial Technology ("Fintech") Marketplace." The Committee Memorandum states that the hearing “will examine the current regulatory landscape [for fintech], the need to amend or modernize... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 11:24 AM » Mortgage rates jump to the highest point in 4 years, an ominous sign for spring housing
    Published Mon, Jan 29 2018 11:24 AM by CNBC
    Home prices continue to leap higher due to a supply crisis, but now a surge in mortgage rates will make buying a home even more expensive.
  • 10:53 AM » Dallas Fed: Manufacturing Expansion Solid in January
    Published Mon, Jan 29 2018 10:53 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Expansion Continues Texas factory activity continued to expand in January, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, remained elevated but retreated to 16.8 after surging to an 11-year high in December. Most other measures of manufacturing activity also pointed to somewhat slower growth in January after the rapid expansion seen in December. The new orders index moved down from 30.1 to 25.5, and the growth rate of orders index fell six points to 15.5. The capacity utilization index also stayed positive but declined, dropping 12 points to 14.5. Meanwhile, the shipments index rose six points to 27.1, indicating a pickup in growth. Perceptions of broader business conditions remained highly positive in January. The general business activity index pushed up further to 33.4, its highest reading in more than 12 years . The company outlook index remained elevated but edged down to 27.8. Labor market measures suggested a slight deceleration in employment growth and longer workweeks this month. The employment index came in at 15.2, down five points from December . emphasis added This was the last of the regional Fed surveys for January. Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index: Click on graph for larger image. The New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (yellow, through January), and five Fed surveys are averaged (blue, through January) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through December (right axis). Based on these regional surveys, it seems likely the ISM manufacturing index will be strong again in January (to be released Thursday, Feb 1st).
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:33 AM » Powell Era Arrives as Fed's Gradual Pace Looks Ripe for Rethink
    Published Mon, Jan 29 2018 9:33 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Powell Era Arrives as Fed's Gradual Pace Looks Ripe for Rethink Bloomberg The American labor market is sizzling, inflation more broadly in the U.S. looks like it's perking up and even a decade-long global economic recovery looks ready to shift into a higher gear. No pressure, Jerome Powell. As Janet Yellen prepares to step ... and more »
  • 9:31 AM » Concentration of Immigrant Workers across Construction Occupations
    Published Mon, Jan 29 2018 9:31 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    As the housing industry gains momentum and the demand for workers increases, labor shortages top the list of the crucial impediments to robust housing recovery. As native-born workers are slow to return to the construction industry, the role and share of foreign-born workers has been rising since the housing recovery got underway. Immigrant workers now account for close to one... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 9:30 AM » Personal Income increased 0.4% in December, Spending increased 0.4%
    Published Mon, Jan 29 2018 9:30 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for December: Personal income increased $58.7 billion (0.4 percent) in December according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $48.0 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $54.2 billion (0.4 percent). ... Real PCE increased 0.3 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent. The December PCE price index increased 1.7 percent year-over-year and the December PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 1.5 percent year-over-year. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through December 2017 (2009 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change . Click on graph for larger image. The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE. The increase in personal income was slightly above expectations,  and the increase in PCE was slightly below expectations.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:42 AM » Bank of Japan's Kuroda Says Inflation Finally Close to Target
    Published Mon, Jan 29 2018 8:42 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Bank of Japan's Kuroda Says Inflation Finally Close to Target Bloomberg Japan's inflation is finally moving close to the Bank of Japan's 2 percent target, Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said at Davos on Friday. "There are some indications that wages are actually rising, and some prices have already started to rise and even ... and more »
  • 8:39 AM » Praet Says ECB Is Some Distance Away From Meeting Inflation Goal
    Published Mon, Jan 29 2018 8:39 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Praet Says ECB Is Some Distance Away From Meeting Inflation Goal Bloomberg The European Central Bank still has a way to go before inflation is on track toward its goal, so policy will need to remain patient and persistent, Executive Board member Peter Praet said on Monday. Praet, who presents policy proposals at Governing ... and more »
  • 8:10 AM » A fire sale by the Treasury could send shock waves through the bond market, strategist warns
    Published Mon, Jan 29 2018 8:10 AM by CNBC
    Wells Fargo's Michael Schumacher detects a big risk in the bond market.
  • 8:10 AM » Bond Traders' Wild Ride in 2018 Is About to Kick Into Overdrive
    Published Mon, Jan 29 2018 8:10 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Bond Traders' Wild Ride in 2018 Is About to Kick Into Overdrive Bloomberg You've traded on inflation data and the prospect of rising sovereign-debt supply. You've wagered on Federal Reserve meetings and what the next chairman might do. And you've bet on jobs and wage growth that exceed or miss targets. Now try doing it all ... and more »
  • Fri, Jan 26 2018
  • 4:50 PM » Trump's performance at Davos was calming, critics say
    Published Fri, Jan 26 2018 4:50 PM by CNBC
    Not the "combative, loud Trump," the president "calmed the room with his speech" at Davos, critics say.
  • 4:50 PM » At The World Economic Forum, Trump Tries To Sell 'America First' Message
    Published Fri, Jan 26 2018 4:50 PM by www.npr.org
    NPR's Ari Shapiro talks with Kimberly Atkins, Washington reporter and columnist for the Boston Herald, and Reihan Salam, executive editor for National Review and columnist for Slate, about immigration, President Trump's speech at the World Economic Forum and the ongoing Mueller investigation.
  • 4:50 PM » Dow pops more than 200 points, stocks notch record close on strong earnings
    Published Fri, Jan 26 2018 4:50 PM by CNBC
    U.S. stocks closed sharply higher on Friday as quarterly earnings top estimates, while the economy continues to grow.
  • 4:49 PM » Economist Larry Summers bashes GOP tax reform: 'We've mortgaged our future'
    Published Fri, Jan 26 2018 4:49 PM by CNBC
    The full interview with Larry Summers.
  • 4:49 PM » Housing Leaders Come Together to Identify Opportunities to Build Financial Capability
    Published Fri, Jan 26 2018 4:49 PM by communitycapital.unc.edu
    By Kate Davidoff and Jennifer Medina This post was originally published by Prosperity Now, an organization with a mission to ensure everyone in our country has a clear path to financial stability, wealth and prosperity. The report that it references is forthcoming by the Center for Community Capital, … Continued The post Housing Leaders Come Together to Identify Opportunities to Build Financial Capability appeared first on UNC Center for Community Capital .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: communitycapital.unc.edu
  • 3:33 PM » Tweet showing how hard it is to afford rent on minimum wage goes viral—there's just one problem
    Published Fri, Jan 26 2018 3:33 PM by CNBC
    As a viral tweet makes clear, rents across the country are often out of reach to those making minimum wage.
  • 1:58 PM » Blame the Shutdown for Extent of Miss on Fourth-Quarter US GDP
    Published Fri, Jan 26 2018 1:58 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Blame the Shutdown for Extent of Miss on Fourth-Quarter US GDP Bloomberg Why did U.S. fourth-quarter economic growth miss forecasts? At least some blame can go to the brief government shutdown earlier this week. Data on December merchandise trade and inventories were originally due Thursday, but the Census Bureau release ... and more »
  • 1:56 PM » New York, New Jersey and Connecticut say they will sue federal government over SALT caps
    Published Fri, Jan 26 2018 1:56 PM by CNBC
    A lawsuit would be just the latest salvo in blue states' fight with the White House over the deductibility of local levies.
  • 1:25 PM » Orders for US Durable Goods Increase by Most in Six Months
    Published Fri, Jan 26 2018 1:25 PM by Bloomberg
    Orders for US Durable Goods Increase by Most in Six Months Bloomberg Orders placed with U.S. factories for durable goods increased in December by the most in six months, providing more evidence of a bustling industrial sector. Bookings for goods meant to last at least three years increased 2.9 percent after a 1.7 ... and more »
  • 12:19 PM » Cash Sales Tie Post-Recession High
    Published Fri, Jan 26 2018 12:19 PM by eyeonhousing.org
    NAHB analysis of the most recent Quarterly Sales by Price and Financing published by the Census Bureau reveals that cash sales accounted for 11,000 new home sales in the fourth quarter of 2017. Cash purchases also accounted for 11,000 new home sales in Q2 2017, but only made up 6.5% of the total. In contrast, they made up 7.9% of purchases in... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 10:32 AM » CFPB finalizes changes to the Prepaid Account Rule and further delays effective date
    Published Fri, Jan 26 2018 10:32 AM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    On January 25, the CFPB finalized certain changes to the original Final Prepaid Rule (the "Rule") proposed last summer. The amended Rule still contains onerous restrictions on credit features and complicated disclosure requirements, but the changes are generally positive for prepaid providers and incorporate feedback from industry representatives. Importantly, due to concerns about implementation difficulties,... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 9:21 AM » BEA: Real GDP increased at 2.6% Annualized Rate in Q4
    Published Fri, Jan 26 2018 9:21 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product: Fourth Quarter 2017 (Advance Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2017 , according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.2 percent. ... The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and federal government spending that were partly offset by a negative contribution from private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. The deceleration in real GDP growth in the fourth quarter reflected a downturn in private inventory investment that was partly offset by accelerations in PCE, exports, nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and federal government spending, and an upturn in residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, turned up. emphasis added The advance Q4 GDP report, with 2.6% annualized growth, was below expectations. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased at 3.8% annualized rate in Q4, up from 2.2% in Q3.   Residential investment (RI) increased at a 11.6% pace. Equipment investment increased at a 11.4% annualized rate, and investment in non-residential structures decreased at a 1.4% pace. I'll have more later ...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • Thu, Jan 25 2018
  • 4:43 PM » Freddie Mac Issues Monthly Volume Summary for December 2017
    Published Thu, Jan 25 2018 4:43 PM by freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Freddie Mac Issues Monthly Volume Summary for December 2017
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 4:43 PM » Bill Miller: A rush out of bonds is about to 'propel stocks significantly higher'
    Published Thu, Jan 25 2018 4:43 PM by CNBC
    Hedge fund manager Bill Miller warned clients that a rush out of bonds is about to drive equities even higher.
  • 4:43 PM » Retail investors make massive move into bond funds just as smart money says bonds going down
    Published Thu, Jan 25 2018 4:43 PM by CNBC
    Retail investor inflows to bond mutual funds in January are on pace to hit a level not seen since 2009.
  • 2:12 PM » Trump: I would reconsider massive Pacific trade deal if it was 'substantially better'
    Published Thu, Jan 25 2018 2:12 PM by CNBC
    "The deal was terrible, the way it was structured was terrible," Trump told CNBC from Davos.
  • 12:37 PM » ECB hits out at Washington for talking down the dollar
    Published Thu, Jan 25 2018 12:37 PM by Reuters
    FRANKFURT (Reuters) - European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi took a swipe at Washington on Thursday for talking down the dollar, a move he said threatened a decades-old pact not to target the currency and might force his bank to change its own policy.
  • 11:39 AM » Hutchins Roundup: Health and earnings, Quantitative Easing as conventional policy, and more
    Published Thu, Jan 25 2018 11:39 AM by webfeeds.brookings.edu
    Studies in this week's Hutchins Roundup find that health improvements lead to higher earnings, quantitative easing should be part of the monetary toolkit when rates near zero, and more. Want to receive the Hutchins Roundup as an email? Sign up here to get it in your inbox every Thursday. Health improvements lead to higher earnings…                
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: webfeeds.brookings.edu
  • 11:15 AM » Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Growth Strengthened Further" in January
    Published Thu, Jan 25 2018 11:15 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Kansas City Fed: Tenth District Manufacturing Growth Strengthened Further The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the January Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that growth in Tenth District manufacturing activity strengthened further, and expectations for future activity increased. "We saw faster growth this month despite some firms noting negative effects from extremely cold weather, and several price indexes rose considerably," said Wilkerson. ... The month-over-month composite index was 16 in January , higher than 13 in December and 15 in November. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. Growth in factory activity improved at both durable and non-durable goods plants, particularly for machinery, aircraft, chemicals, and plastics. Most month-over-month indexes also increased. The shipments, new orders, and order backlog indexes all rose moderately. The employment index inched higher from 16 to 18 , while the production index was unchanged. The raw materials inventory index climbed from 7 to 15, and the finished goods inventory index moved into positive territory. emphasis added So far all of the regional Fed surveys have been solid in January, although only the Kansas City index has been above the December levels (most indexes suggest slower growth in January than in December).
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:23 AM » Leading indicators gain in Dec., expected to continue momentum due to tax reform
    Published Thu, Jan 25 2018 10:23 AM by CNBC
    A key economic indicator rose more than expected in December to build on momentum from the previous month.
  • 9:59 AM » Freddie Mac Prices $1.1 Billion Multifamily K-Deal, K-072
    Published Thu, Jan 25 2018 9:59 AM by freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Freddie Mac Prices $1.1 Billion Multifamily K-Deal, K-072
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 9:18 AM » Luxury Home Prices Up 7 Percent in the Fourth Quarter
    Published Thu, Jan 25 2018 9:18 AM by www.redfin.com
    Stock market gains and soaring investor confidence set the stage for high demand for luxury homes as 2017 came to a close. Luxury home prices rose 7.4 percent year over year to an average of $1.76M. The post Luxury Home Prices Up 7 Percent in the Fourth Quarter appeared first on Redfin Real-Time .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.redfin.com
  • 9:18 AM » Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 233,000
    Published Thu, Jan 25 2018 9:18 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The DOL reported : In the week ending January 20, the advance figure for s easonally adjusted initial claims was 233,000 , an increase of 17,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 4,000 from 220,000 to 216,000. The 4-week moving average was 240,000 , a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 1,000 from 244,500 to 243,500. The claims taking procedures in Puerto Rico and in the Virgin Islands have still not returned to normal emphasis added The previous week was revised down. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 240,000. This was much lower than the consensus forecast. The low level of claims suggest relatively few layoffs.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:14 AM » ECB keeps policy, guidance unchanged as expected
    Published Thu, Jan 25 2018 8:14 AM by Reuters
    FRANKFURT, Jan 25 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank reaffirmed its ultra-easy policy stance on Thursday, promising to keep rates steady until well after the end of its bond buys and maintaining a pledge to boost the purchases, if necessary.
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