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  • Fri, Aug 24 2018
  • 8:36 AM » 2018 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium Agenda
    Published Fri, Aug 24 2018 8:36 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Note: the presented papers are usually posted to the Kansas City Fed's site fairly quickly. On twitter . 2018 Economic Policy Symposium: Changing Market Structures and Implications for Monetary Policy . Times listed on program are Mountain Standard Time. From Merrill Lynch on Jackson Hole Symposium: We expect the papers presented to be primarily academic in nature and of only marginal interest to the markets : this would be consistent with the recent shift away from using Jackson Hole as a forum for policy signaling. However, two stories will swirl around the meetings. The first is the issue of Fed independence. ... We do not expect Chair Powell to discuss Fed independence in his speech at 10am today, and there will be no Q&A. The other issue of interest will be the Fed's tightening plans. In terms of policy rates, in our view the Fed has no reason to deviate from its pace of quarterly rate hikes unless either the macro data slow substantially or core inflation moves substantially higher. The more proximate concern is monetary policy implementation. Specifically, the Fed funds rate continues to move towards the upper bound of the Fed's target range. Mark Cabana has argued that this is because of bank demand for excess reserves in order to satisfy post-crisis regulatory requirements. The risk is that the Fed will have to stop unwinding its balance sheet earlier than the markets are expecting in order to keep the funds rate within the target range. The July / August meeting minutes mention that the Fed will address its operating framework in the fall. emphasis added
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:15 AM » Fed's James Bullard says he would 'stand pat' on rates for rest of the year
    Published Fri, Aug 24 2018 8:15 AM by CNBC
    St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard is cautious about hiking rates again this year.
  • 8:03 AM » US Treasury yields seen higher ahead of economic data, Powell speech
    Published Fri, Aug 24 2018 8:03 AM by CNBC
    Traders will be monitoring a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday.
  • 8:02 AM » Trump has reportedly offered US funds to buy Italian debt
    Published Fri, Aug 24 2018 8:02 AM by CNBC
    The yields on 10-year Italian government bonds are at levels not seen since 2014.
  • 8:02 AM » Fed's James Bullard says economy will slow next year, 2020
    Published Fri, Aug 24 2018 8:02 AM by CNBC
    St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard shares his views on monetary policy Friday.
  • Thu, Aug 23 2018
  • 5:11 PM » Treasury and IRS move to block blue states' tax workarounds
    Published Thu, Aug 23 2018 5:11 PM by CNBC
    In the latest battle between high-tax states and the federal government, the Treasury Department and the IRS take a swipe at new laws in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut that allow the states to offset a new $10,000 cap on state and local tax deductions.
  • 5:11 PM » Fed poised to raise rates, but maybe not much farther
    Published Thu, Aug 23 2018 5:11 PM by Reuters
    Federal Reserve policymakers broadly agree that U.S. interest rates should rise further this year and next, despite U.S. President Donald Trump's displeasure with such a plan, two policymakers' comments underscored on Thursday.
  • 5:10 PM » Hawaii homeowners in path of hurricane may find their insurance is little solace
    Published Thu, Aug 23 2018 5:10 PM by CNBC
    While many homeowners insurance policies across the country cover wind damage from big storms, policies in Hawaii exclude hurricane coverage. They also don't cover damage from flooding, although that's standard everywhere.
  • 4:01 PM » Fed Staff Paper Warns Officials Not to Ignore Low Unemployment
    Published Thu, Aug 23 2018 4:01 PM by Bloomberg
    Fed Staff Paper Warns Officials Not to Ignore Low Unemployment Bloomberg Ignoring the low unemployment rate and paying more attention to what happens with inflation may not be a wise strategy for Federal Reserve officials, according to a new paper by researchers at the U.S. central bank. "Policy needs to take proper account ... and more »
  • 4:00 PM » Fed's Kaplan: We'll continue to do our job 'without regard to political considerations'
    Published Thu, Aug 23 2018 4:00 PM by CNBC
    Fed's Kaplan: We'll continue to do our job 'without regard to political considerations'<br/>
  • 3:52 PM » Powell won't get in a 'Twitter war' with Trump, but the Fed chief may address his concerns
    Published Thu, Aug 23 2018 3:52 PM by CNBC
    Fed Chair Jerome Powell is not likely to reveal any change in Fed interest rate hiking policy when he speaks Friday, but markets are watching to see if he provides any clues on what could make the Fed pause.
  • 1:37 PM » The housing recovery isn't over, it just feels like it is
    Published Thu, Aug 23 2018 1:37 PM by CNBC
    July sales reports for both new and existing homes fell short of expectations and have been weakening for several months. Some are raising red flags that the nation's housing market is in trouble, but it isn't.
  • 1:36 PM » Trump warns impeachment will crash the market and make everyone 'very poor'—here's what experts say
    Published Thu, Aug 23 2018 1:36 PM by CNBC
    "If I ever got impeached, I think the market would crash. I think everybody would be very poor," said President Trump.
  • 11:53 AM » CFPB to hold fair lending symposium on Sept. 17
    Published Thu, Aug 23 2018 11:53 AM by
    The CFPB's Office of Fair Lending and Equal Opportunity has announced that it will hold a day-long symposium, “Building a Bridge to Credit Visibility,” to "explore challenges many consumers face in accessing credit." The CFPB has indicated that the symposium "will convene a diverse set of stakeholders to explore challenges in overcoming barriers to expand fair,... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 11:30 AM » Senate Banking Committee approves Kraninger nomination
    Published Thu, Aug 23 2018 11:30 AM by
    By a 13 to 12 party-line vote today, the Senate Banking Committee approved President Trump's nomination of Kathy Kraninger to serve as CFPB Director. When the full Senate will consider her nomination and whether it will be approved remains uncertain. We continue to believe that the full Senate is unlikely to consider her nomination before... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 10:41 AM » Multifamily Builder and Developer Confidence Edged Down Slightly in Second Quarter
    Published Thu, Aug 23 2018 10:41 AM by
    Confidence in the multifamily market edged down slightly in the second quarter of 2018 with the Multifamily Production Index (MPI) falling two points to 51, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) (Figure 1). The MPI measures builder and developer sentiment about current conditions in the apartment and condominium market on a scale of 0 to 100. The... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 10:06 AM » The three ways student debt makes it hard to buy a house
    Published Thu, Aug 23 2018 10:06 AM by CNBC
    People's monthly student loan payments can eat up a large slice of their income, threaten to push down their credit scores and make saving nearly impossible - all huge impediments, of course, to landing in a house.
  • 8:48 AM » Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 210,000
    Published Thu, Aug 23 2018 8:48 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The DOL reported : In the week ending August 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 210,000 , a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 212,000. The 4-week moving average was 213,750, a decrease of 1,750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 215,500. emphasis added The previous week was unrevised. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 213,750. This was lower than the consensus forecast. The low level of claims suggest few layoffs.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:29 AM » Fed bond unwind may be even less thrilling for Trump than rate hikes
    Published Thu, Aug 23 2018 8:29 AM by Reuters
    Fed bond unwind may be even less thrilling for Trump than rate hikes
  • 8:09 AM » Fed's George says Trump isn't influencing her votes on rate hikes
    Published Thu, Aug 23 2018 8:09 AM by CNBC
    President Trump's criticism isn't influencing the way Kansas City Fed President Esther George, long one of the central bank's most hawkish members, conducts policy.
  • 8:04 AM » US Treasury yields mixed after Fed minutes; central bankers gather in Jackson Hole
    Published Thu, Aug 23 2018 8:04 AM by CNBC
    Traders are gearing up for a three-day gathering between leading central bankers at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, due to kick off on Thursday.
  • 8:03 AM » Euro-Area Growth Stays Strong as ECB Plans to Ease Stimulus
    Published Thu, Aug 23 2018 8:03 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Euro-Area Growth Stays Strong as ECB Plans to Ease Stimulus Bloomberg The euro-area economy showed it's still robust as the European Central Bank prepares to wind down its bond- purchase program. IHS Markit's composite index of manufacturing and services increased to 54.4 in August from 54.3. Economists surveyed by ...
  • Wed, Aug 22 2018
  • 2:30 PM » Fed officials worry that the trade war poses the biggest threat to 'strong' economy
    Published Wed, Aug 22 2018 2:30 PM by CNBC
    Minutes from the July 31-Aug. 1 Federal Open Market Committee gathering indicated that members remain fairly confident that the "strong" economic growth of late will continue at least over the near term.
  • 2:30 PM » Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 31-August 1, 2018
    Published Wed, Aug 22 2018 2:30 PM by Federal Reserve
    Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 31-August 1, 2018
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Federal Reserve
  • 1:04 PM » How Does This Bull Market End?
    Published Wed, Aug 22 2018 1:04 PM by The Atlantic
    Welcome to what is poised to be-by most counts-the longest bull market on record in the U.S. For roughly 3,453 days the S&P 500 has been on a mostly steady upward trajectory . To many, these prolonged gains are unambiguously good news, particularly when combined with an economy that is strong and stable-which this one is. The market rally has resulted in gains of more than 300 percent and trillions of dollars for investors since the nadir of the Great Recession nine-and-a-half years ago. How did we get here? There are some who will undoubtedly thank the president. And it's true that in the wake of the election, the markets enjoyed what was then dubbed the " Trump Bump " as many investors presumed that a corporation-friendly administration would help profits. But this rally started long before Trump's name was even seriously mentioned in the political arena. The market started climbing in 2009, right after the country felt the worst losses of the recession. Part of the reason this market run has lasted so long is because the initial recovery from the recession was so slow and the losses were so significant. Those long, plodding years trying to recoup the losses of the Great Recession count toward this bull market too. The current bull cycle, was borne of prolonged quantitative easing and suppressed interest rates, and escalated stock buybacks, among other techniques used by the government and corporations to help markets recover. This rally has weathered political uncertainty , a surprising presidential election, a pseudo trade war , a barrage of potentially market-moving tweets , and several sizable drops . Skeptics who have tried to pronounce the death knell of this rally have been proven wrong again and again as the stock market continued to shake off bad news and climb to new highs. But that won't always be the case. Those celebrating this historic rally should remember that the sheer duration of a bull market doesn't guarantee economic...
  • 10:32 AM » U.S. job gains in year through March likely to be revised up by 43,000
    Published Wed, Aug 22 2018 10:32 AM by Reuters
    The U.S. economy likely created 43,000 more jobs in the 12 months through March than previously estimated, the Labor Department said on Wednesday.
  • 9:50 AM » Hurricane Lane Prompts Warnings, Watches as It Nears Hawaii
    Published Wed, Aug 22 2018 9:50 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Hurricane Lane Prompts Warnings, Watches as It Nears Hawaii Bloomberg Hawaii is bracing for a grazing blow from Category 5 Hurricane Lane, now packing 160-mile-per-hour (257 kilometers) winds, enough to collapse frame buildings, cause power outages that could last weeks or months and snap trees off at the root. The storm ... and more »
  • 8:50 AM » Fed chairman Powell assured senator he's not swayed by Trump's criticism
    Published Wed, Aug 22 2018 8:50 AM by CNBC
    Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is resolved to keep the central bank independent despite ongoing criticism from President Donald Trump, according to a conversation Sen. Tim Scott related.
  • 8:27 AM » Few thrills ahead for Trump from a Fed on a mission of its own
    Published Wed, Aug 22 2018 8:27 AM by Reuters
    Few thrills ahead for Trump from a Fed on a mission of its own
  • 8:13 AM » US Treasury yields slip ahead of Fed minutes release
    Published Wed, Aug 22 2018 8:13 AM by CNBC
    U.S. government debt prices ticked higher on Wednesday.
  • Tue, Aug 21 2018
  • 4:25 PM » Look Ahead to Existing Home Sales for July
    Published Tue, Aug 21 2018 4:25 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The NAR is scheduled to release Existing Home Sales for July at 10:00 AM tomorrow. The consensus is for 5.43 million SAAR, up from 5.38 million in June. Housing economist Tom Lawler estimates the NAR will reports sales of 5.40 million SAAR for July and that inventory will be down 1.0% year-over-year. Based on Lawler's estimate, I expect existing home sales to be close to the consensus for July. Housing economist Tom Lawler has been sending me his predictions of what the NAR will report for 8+ years.  The table below shows the consensus for each month, Lawler's predictions, and the NAR's initially reported level of sales.  Lawler hasn't always been closer than the consensus, but usually when there has been a fairly large spread between Lawler's estimate and the "consensus", Lawler has been closer. As an example, for last month, May 2018, the consensus was for sales of 5.56 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis. Lawler estimated 5.47 million, and the NAR reported 5.43 million (the consensus missed by 130 thousand compared to 40 thousand for Lawler). NOTE: There have been times when Lawler "missed", but then he pointed out an apparent error in the NAR data - and the subsequent revision corrected that error.  As an example, see: The "Curious Case" of Existing Home Sales in the South in April Over the last eight years, the consensus average miss was 147 thousand, and  Lawler's average miss was 68 thousand. Existing Home Sales, Forecasts and NAR Report millions, seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR) Month Consensus Lawler NAR reported 1 May-10 6.20 5.83 5.66 Jun-10 5.30 5.30 5.37 Jul-10 4.66 3.95 3.83 Aug-10 4.10 4.10 4.13 Sep-10 4.30 4.50 4.53 Oct-10 4.50 4.46 4.43 Nov-10 4.85 4.61 4.68 Dec-10 4.90 5.13 5.28 Jan-11 5.20 5.17 5.36 Feb-11 5.15 5.00 4.88 Mar-11 5.00 5.08 5.10 Apr-11 5.20 5.15 5.05 May-11 4.75 4.80 4.81 Jun-11 4.90 4.71 4.77 Jul-11 4.92 4.69 4...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 3:29 PM » Bostic Throws Down the Gauntlet
    Published Tue, Aug 21 2018 3:29 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Some more Fed Watch comments from Tim Duy: Bostic Throws Down the Gauntlet Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic threw down the gauntlet today with a declaration to dissent any policy move that will invert the yield curve. He may get the chance to make good on that threat in December - his last meeting in his current rotation a voting member. Bottom Line: My sense is that the majority of the Fed would find more reasons to ignore than embrace the signal from a 10-2 yield curve inversion. They will fall back on the basic theory that this time is different because the curve inverts at a lower level of rates than in previous inversions. If the yield curve doesn't stop them from continuing rate hikes, what will? Certainly a clear slowdown in activity would do the trick. But that is obvious. Less obvious is the possibility that they pause after reaching their estimates of neutral even if the data remains consistent with above-trend growth. That would require something of a leap of faith by Powell & Co. that the lagged impacts of tightening had yet to materialize in a slower pace of activity. CR Note: Currently the target range for the federal funds rate is 1.75% to 2%. With inflation running close to 2% by most measures, the real Fed Funds rate is still negative.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:14 PM » S&P hits record high, equals longest-ever bull run
    Published Tue, Aug 21 2018 2:14 PM by Reuters
    The benchmark S&P 500 touched a record high on Tuesday and equaled its longest-ever bull-market run, as U.S. stocks rose on encouraging earnings reports and hopes that the United States and China could resolve their tariff dispute.
  • 1:03 PM » Majority of young workers have already tapped their retirement savings
    Published Tue, Aug 21 2018 1:03 PM by CNBC
    Nearly 60 percent of workers age 18 to 34 say they already have made early withdrawals from tax-advantaged accounts intended to help fund their golden years, new research shows.
  • 1:03 PM » Dallas Fed President says central bank only needs three or four more rate hikes
    Published Tue, Aug 21 2018 1:03 PM by CNBC
    The Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its rate-hiking cycle as headwinds build up to economic growth, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said Tuesday.
  • 11:22 AM » Exclusive: Trump demands Fed help on economy, complains about interest rate rises
    Published Tue, Aug 21 2018 11:22 AM by Reuters
    Exclusive: Trump demands Fed help on economy, complains about interest rate rises
  • 10:39 AM » U.S. imposes fresh sanctions for Russian cyber-related activity
    Published Tue, Aug 21 2018 10:39 AM by Reuters
    The United States on Tuesday imposed sanctions on two Russians and one Russian and one Slovakian firm under a U.S. program targeting malicious cyber-related activities.
  • 10:39 AM » Why interest rates could go up as these enormous bond buyers get out of the pool
    Published Tue, Aug 21 2018 10:39 AM by CNBC
    As August turns into September, many pension funds may be ready to slow down bond buying, a phenomena that could send interest rates higher.
  • 10:01 AM » CA Supreme Court holds high-interest loans may be subject to price unconscionability attack; Ballard Spahr to hold October 16 webinar
    Published Tue, Aug 21 2018 10:01 AM by
    Resolving an ambiguity in the California Finance Lender’s Law (CFLL), the California Supreme Court unanimously held that borrowers may use the unconscionability doctrine to challenge the interest rate on consumer loans of $2,500 or more, despite the fact that the CFLL has deregulated interest rates on such loans. Although unconscionability claims of this nature will... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 9:29 AM » Demographics, Unemployment Rate and Inflation
    Published Tue, Aug 21 2018 9:29 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    In early 2015, I wrote about the possible relationship between Demographics, Unemployment Rate and Inflation.  An excerpt (at that time the unemployment rate was at 5.7%): If we look at the annual change in the prime working age population, there is one other period similar to the current situation - the early-to-mid 60s. The key is the prime working age population was declining in the early part of this decade and has only started increasing again recently. This is very similar to what happened in the 60s.  In the early 60s, there was a slow increase in the prime working age population until the baby boomers started pouring into the labor force. [This] graph shows the unemployment rate and year-over-year change in inflation in the 1960s. In the 1960s, inflation didn't pickup until the unemployment rate had fallen close to 4%.  There could be several demographics reasons for the low inflation (in addition to policy reasons).  As an example, maybe older workers were being replaced by younger workers who made less (just like today), and maybe the slow increase in the prime working age population put less pressure on resources. Recently there has been more research on this topic. From Mikael Juselius and Elod Takáts at the BIS, May 2018: The enduring link between demography and inflation Demographic shifts, such as population ageing, have been suggested as possible explanations for the past decade's low inflation. We exploit cross-country variation in a long panel to identify age structure effects in inflation, controlling for standard monetary factors. A robust relationship emerges that accords with the lifecycle hypothesis. That is, inflationary pressure rises when the share of dependants increases and, conversely, subsides when the share of working age population increases. This relationship accounts for the bulk of trend inflation, for instance, about 7 percentage points of US disinflation since the 1980s. It predicts rising...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
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