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  • Thu, Nov 16 2017
  • 8:59 AM » US weekly jobless claims unexpectedly rise
    Published Thu, Nov 16 2017 8:59 AM by CNBC
    The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week.
  • 8:58 AM » US import prices rise less than expected in October
    Published Thu, Nov 16 2017 8:58 AM by CNBC
    Import prices rose less than expected in October as an increase in the cost of imported petroleum and capital goods was offset by a decline in food prices.
  • 8:16 AM » Can investors use macro analysis?
    Published Thu, Nov 16 2017 8:16 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Two weeks ago I posted five economic questions I'm frequently asked .  Since then I've discussed: 1) Are house prices in a new bubble? 2) Is a recession imminent (within the next 12 months)? 3) Is the stock market a bubble? Today I will discuss: Can investors use macro analysis? Macro is the analysis of the economy as a whole (GDP, Unemployment, inflation, demographics), as opposed to the analysis of individual companies (or individuals). Sometimes we can use macro trends to help with sector analysis. An example of the later would the apartment sector. It was in 2010 that I started discussing the turnaround for apartments. Then, in January 2011, I attended the NMHC Apartment Strategies Conference in Palm Springs, and the atmosphere was very positive . My analysis was based on three factors: low volume of new supply, a large cohort moving into their 20s (the prime renting age), and people moving from owning to renting (the foreclosure crisis).   2010 and 2011 was a great time to invest in apartments. Another example of macro sector analysis was in January 2009, when I wrote about the auto sector: Vehicle Sales . It was pretty easy to predict sales were near a bottom, and that auto sales would "increase significantly" going forward. We can also use macro analysis to follow the business cycle.  However analysts have a poor track record in calling turns in the business cycle. As an example, ECRI called a recession in September 2011, and finally threw in the towel in May 2015 .  If investors sold when ECRI first made their recession call in Sept 2011, they would have missed close to a 75% increase in the market ! Note: This is partially from a previous post and is NOT intended as investment advice. Why are investors so focused on the business cycle? Obviously earnings decline in a recession, and stock prices fall too. The following graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in the S&P 500 (using average monthly...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:16 AM » Factors That Shape Home Buyer Preferences
    Published Thu, Nov 16 2017 8:16 AM by www.builderonline.com
    Factors That Shape Home Buyer Preferences
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.builderonline.com
  • 8:16 AM » What Happens to the Real Estate Market When Supply Falls for 25 Straight Months?
    Published Thu, Nov 16 2017 8:16 AM by www.redfin.com
    Home price growth was strong in October, up 7.6 percent compared to a year ago to a national median sale price of $288,000 across the markets Redfin serves. Sales were essentially unchanged from October of last year, down 0.1 percent. Home sales have declined year over year for the past four months. "Despite strong buyer […] The post What Happens to the Real Estate Market When Supply Falls for 25 Straight Months? appeared first on Redfin Real-Time .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.redfin.com
  • Wed, Nov 15 2017
  • 3:47 PM » Consumer protections may wither as CFPB head Cordray departs, observers say
    Published Wed, Nov 15 2017 3:47 PM by CNBC
    The future is foggy for this six-year-old federal agency. Customers have received close to $12 billion in relief from regulatory actions.
  • 3:45 PM » Republican Sen. Ron Johnson tells WSJ he won't vote for GOP tax bill
    Published Wed, Nov 15 2017 3:45 PM by CNBC
    Johnson is the first GOP senator to explicitly say he will not back the tax proposal.
  • 3:44 PM » Republicans Slap an Expiration Date on Middle-Class Tax Cuts
    Published Wed, Nov 15 2017 3:44 PM by The Atlantic
    President Trump and congressional Republicans have repeatedly insisted that the top priority of their tax reform is delivering relief to the middle class. But under a significant change to the Senate's plan announced late Tuesday night, that relief for most people will now only be temporary, and millions of middle-class families could actually see a tax increase in 2026 if Congress doesn't act again. As I recently reported , the competing Republican tax bills were both over-budget, forcing party leaders to scale them back if they hoped to pass legislation under Senate rules without Democratic votes. They essentially had two choices: They could slap an expiration date on the proposal's large corporate tax cut-from 35 percent down to 20 percent-or they could sunset the provisions benefitting individuals. For now, Republicans are siding with businesses, keeping the lower corporate rate permanent while setting nearly all of the individual tax cuts to expire in eight years, at the end of 2025. The decision is a nod to conservative economists who argue that permanence in business tax rates is key to producing desired growth in the GDP, because companies are more likely to plan expansion and investments years ahead of time. And it's also a bet that future Congresses-whether under Democratic or Republican majorities-will extend the cuts for individuals to stave off a politically unpopular tax increase. Yet the choice dents the GOP's message that the bill is targeted chiefly at middle-class families and not big business. "Bottom line, my colleagues on the other side have shown their hand," said Senator Ron Wyden of Oregon, the top Democrat on the Finance Committee, which wrote the bill and held a combative markup of the revised proposal on Wednesday less than 12 hours after the changes were unveiled. Republicans on the panel hope to approve the bill this week so the full Senate can vote on it after Thanksgiving. The House is set to pass its version...
  • 2:20 PM » Richard Cordray Stepping Down As Head Of U.S. Consumer Protection Agency
    Published Wed, Nov 15 2017 2:20 PM by www.npr.org
    Richard Cordray, the embattled director of Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, announced Wednesday that he will leave the agency by the end of November. "I am confident that you will continue to move forward, nurture this institution we have built together, and maintain its essential value to the American public," Cordray wrote in an email to the agency's staff.
  • 2:15 PM » Tax Overhaul Plans Make New York Home Buyers Think Twice
    Published Wed, Nov 15 2017 2:15 PM by www.realtor.com
    Brokers say buyers are worried as House and Senate proposals would increase the cost of owning many residential properties. The post Tax Overhaul Plans Make New York Home Buyers Think Twice appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 1:03 PM » Brainard, Regional Food Systems and Community Development
    Published Wed, Nov 15 2017 1:03 PM by Federal Reserve
    Speech At a Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Regional Food Systems Meeting, Boston, Massachusetts
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Federal Reserve
  • 12:05 PM » CFPB director Richard Cordray to step down at the end of November
    Published Wed, Nov 15 2017 12:05 PM by CNBC
    CFPB director Richard Cordray to step down at the end of November<br/>https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/15/cfpb-director-richard-cordray-to-step-down-at-the-end-of-november.html
  • 11:25 AM » CFPB Finally Acknowledges Arbitration Rule "Has No Force or Effect"
    Published Wed, Nov 15 2017 11:25 AM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    Two weeks after President Trump signed H.J. Res. 111, the joint resolution passed by the House and Senate disapproving the CFPB arbitration rule, the CFPB has formally acknowledged Congress' override of the rule under the Congressional Review Act. The following notice is now posted at the head of the section of the CFPB's website dealing... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 11:11 AM » US Inflation, Retail Data Show Economy Ready for Fed Rate Hike
    Published Wed, Nov 15 2017 11:11 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg US Inflation, Retail Data Show Economy Ready for Fed Rate Hike Bloomberg The U.S. economy delivered a double win for the Federal Reserve in October with an encouraging pickup in inflation and an unexpected gain in retail sales, further solidifying expectations that policy makers will raise interest rates next month. and more »
  • 10:56 AM » AIA: Architecture Billings Index "Bounce Back" in October
    Published Wed, Nov 15 2017 10:56 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Architecture Billings Bounce Back After a stand-alone month of contracting demand for design services, there was a modest uptick in the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) for October. As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine to twelve month lead time between architecture billings and construction spending. The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the October ABI score was 51.7 , up from a score of 49.1 in the previous month. This score reflects an increase in design services provided by U.S. architecture firms (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). The new projects inquiry index was 60.2, up from a reading of 59.0 the previous month, while the new design contracts index eased slightly from 52.9 to 52.8. "As we enter the fourth quarter, there is enough design activity occurring that construction conditions should remain healthy moving through 2018," said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. "Extended strength in inquiries and new design contracts, along with balanced growth across the major building sectors signals further gains throughout the construction industry." ... • Regional averages: Northeast (54.0), South (50.8), West (49.8), Midwest (49.0) • Sector index breakdown: commercial / industrial (51.2), mixed practice (50.7), multi-family residential (50.7), institutional (50.7) emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 52.7 in October, up from 49.1 in September. Anything above 50 indicates expansion in demand for architects' services. Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions. According to the AIA, there is an "approximate...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:08 AM » Business inventories unchanged in September vs expectation of 0.2% gain
    Published Wed, Nov 15 2017 10:08 AM by CNBC
    The measure was expected to continue rising after the prior report showed the largest gain in nine months.
  • 9:14 AM » Homeowners: Great Time to Sell, But Not to Buy and Here's Why
    Published Wed, Nov 15 2017 9:14 AM by PR Newswire
    DALLAS, Nov. 15, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- It's a seller's market thanks to low inventory, but according to ValueInsured's latest quarterly Modern Homebuyer Survey, many would-be sellers are hesitating to sell because of the high price they'd have to pay for their next home. The survey,...
  • 8:50 AM » US consumer prices rise marginally, core CPI firming
    Published Wed, Nov 15 2017 8:50 AM by CNBC
    U.S. consumer prices barely rose in October as the boost to gasoline prices from hurricane-related disruptions to Gulf Coast oil refineries were unwound.
  • 8:49 AM » US retail sales unexpectedly rise on automobile purchases
    Published Wed, Nov 15 2017 8:49 AM by CNBC
    Sales unexpectedly rose in October as an increase in purchases of motor vehicles and a range of other goods offset a decline in demand for building materials.
  • 8:06 AM » California's Housing Policy Is Holding Back Its Climate Policy
    Published Wed, Nov 15 2017 8:06 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg California's Housing Policy Is Holding Back Its Climate Policy Bloomberg The high cost of housing in California isn't just hurting the state's economy, fueling homelessness, and exacerbating economic inequality. It's imperiling its reputation as a global leader in emissions reductions, too.
  • 8:04 AM » NY Fed Q3 Report: "Total Household Debt Increases, Delinquency Rates of Several Debt Types Continue Rising"
    Published Wed, Nov 15 2017 8:04 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the NY Fed: Total Household Debt Increases, Delinquency Rates of Several Debt Types Continue Rising The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, which reported that total household debt increased by $116 billion (0.9%) to $12.96 trillion in the third quarter of 2017 . There were increases in mortgage, student, auto and credit card debt (increasing by 0.6%, 1.0%, 1.9% and 3.1% respectively) and a modest decline in home equity lines of credit (HELOC) balances (decreasing by 0.9%). ... Credit card and auto loan flows into delinquency increased . Specifically, credit card flows into delinquency have increased over the past year, while auto loan flows into delinquency have been steadily increasing for several years. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. Here are two graphs from the report: The first graph shows aggregate consumer debt increased in Q3.  Household debt previously peaked in 2008, and bottomed in Q2 2013. From the NY Fed: Mortgage balances, the largest component of household debt, increased again during the third quarter. Mortgage balances shown on consumer credit reports on September 30 stood at $8.74 trillion, an increase of $52 billion from the second quarter of 2017. Balances on home equity lines of credit (HELOC) have been slowly declining; they dropped by $4 billion and now stand at $448 billion. Non-housing balances, which have been increasing steadily for nearly 6 years overall, saw a $68 billion increase in the third quarter. Auto loans grew by $23 billion and credit card balances increased by $24 billion, while student loans saw a $13 billion increase. The second graph shows the percent of debt in delinquency. There is still a larger than normal percent of debt 90+ days delinquent (Yellow, orange and red). The overall delinquency rate increased in Q3.  From the NY Fed: Aggregate delinquency rates ticked up slightly in...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:04 AM » Economists at Odds With Bond Traders on Global Inflation Outlook
    Published Wed, Nov 15 2017 8:04 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Economists at Odds With Bond Traders on Global Inflation Outlook Bloomberg Wall Street economists are clashing with Wall Street traders over whether inflation is poised to awaken around the world after a long slumber. From Morgan Stanley to Bank of America Corp. there's a growing chorus of economists siding with Federal ... and more »
  • Tue, Nov 14 2017
  • 4:33 PM » A Day in the Life: Atlanta Homeownership Center
    Published Tue, Nov 14 2017 4:33 PM by blog.hud.gov
      Welcome to another edition of our series, A Day in the Life, which will introduce you to HUD employees and highlight the important work they do. Today we meet Ruth Trembley, a Management Analyst in the Atlanta Regional office. What is the overarching task of your position? In my position, I perform quality control […]
  • 3:52 PM » Condo slowdown? Worrying price signal at New York's trophy tower
    Published Tue, Nov 14 2017 3:52 PM by CNBC
    New York's 1,000-foot-tall symbol of luxury is becoming a monument to the condo slowdown.
  • 2:52 PM » A bond market crash is a growing worry for investors
    Published Tue, Nov 14 2017 2:52 PM by CNBC
    One of the top three worries for investors is a crash in global bond markets, according to the BofAML November Global Fund Manager Survey.
  • 2:49 PM » Robert Shiller is 'concerned' as market optimism hits lowest level in over 16 years
    Published Tue, Nov 14 2017 2:49 PM by CNBC
    Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller sees some worrying signs in Yale University's monthly sentiment survey.
  • 2:49 PM » A few random thoughts on Taxes
    Published Tue, Nov 14 2017 2:49 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    A few random thoughts ... Income and corporate taxes are just part of the tax system.   Americans pay a wide variety of taxes. These include sales, property, payroll, state and Federal income and corporate taxes, and more.  Many of these taxes are regressive, meaning that lower income families pay a higher percentage of their income for these taxes.  Sales taxes and payroll taxes are example of regressive taxes. There are some "hidden" taxes, such as resource extraction taxes (severance tax imposed on the removal of non-renewable natural resources) and state lotteries.  The severance tax is borne primarily by consumers, and is therefore regressive - and lotteries are also regressive. The main non-regressive taxes are income and corporate taxes.   Higher income families generally pay a higher percentage of their income for these taxes.  So when there is a discussion of reducing corporate and income taxes - and "broadening the base" for income taxes - this makes the entire tax system more regressive. To make the system more progressive (where higher income families pay a higher percentage of their income in taxes), the discussion would be about decreasing regressive taxes (like the payroll tax), or increasing income and corporate taxes. Why change the tax code?    There could be many reasons to change the code: to make it simpler, to encourage certain activities (homeownership, investment, education, etc.), or to remove existing tax preferences, to spur growth, to reduce the deficit, to change the balance of who pays taxes. As an example, to spur growth we could look for ways to lower income and wealth inequality (this is slowing growth in the US), and also ways to put more money in the hands of low to middle income families (people who tend to spend additional money).  Examples of policies to spur growth in the short term would be reducing the payroll tax, and for growth...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:30 AM » Home Depot lifts full-year forecasts as hurricanes spur demand
    Published Tue, Nov 14 2017 11:30 AM by Reuters
    (Reuters) - Home Depot Inc , the largest U.S. home improvement chain, on Tuesday raised its full-year profit and sales forecast after Hurricanes Harvey and Irma spurred demand for generators, flashlights and rebuilding materials.
  • 11:22 AM » White House considering nomination of Mohamed El-Erian for Federal Reserve Vice Chair: Report
    Published Tue, Nov 14 2017 11:22 AM by CNBC
    White House considering nomination of Mohamed El-Erian for Federal Reserve Vice Chair: Report|| 104789371.
  • 11:08 AM » Affordable housing could lose big in Republican tax plan
    Published Tue, Nov 14 2017 11:08 AM by CNBC
    The House GOP tax plan cuts a type of bond that is used to finance at least half of the nation's affordable rental apartment buildings.
  • 10:19 AM » NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index "inches up" in October
    Published Tue, Nov 14 2017 10:19 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB): Small Business Optimism Index inches up in October in October The October Index rose to 103.8, up from 103 the previous month . The historically strong performance extends the streak of positive months dating back to last November, when it shot up immediately following the election. Four of the Index components rose last month. Five declined slightly, while one remained unchanged. Outlook for expansion and sales expectations each jumped six points, while job openings increased by five points. The tight labor market got tighter for small business owners last month , continuing a year-long trend. Fifty-nine percent of owners said they tried to hire in October, with 88 percent of them reporting no or few qualified applicants. Hiring activity was particularly high in Florida and Georgia, as construction firms are still trying to meet higher demand caused by the recent hurricane . emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the small business optimism index since 1986. The index increased slightly to 103.8 in October.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:19 AM » Freddie Mac Prices New $3.5 Billion Three-Year Reference Notes Security
    Published Tue, Nov 14 2017 10:19 AM by freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Freddie Mac Prices New $3.5 Billion Three-Year Reference Notes Security
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 9:28 AM » U.S. Economic Confidence Index Unchanged at +7
    Published Tue, Nov 14 2017 9:28 AM by news.gallup.com
    Americans' confidence in the economy remained steady last week, holding at the highest level since mid-August and one of the highest levels in the past nine years.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: news.gallup.com
  • 8:22 AM » Home Depot profit beats as hurricanes spur demand
    Published Tue, Nov 14 2017 8:22 AM by Reuters
    (Reuters) - Home Depot Inc , the largest U.S. home improvement chain, beat analysts' third-quarter sales and profit estimates on Tuesday, as hurricanes Harvey and Irma boosted demand for storm-related emergency products and rebuilding materials.
  • 8:22 AM » Janet Yellen admits the Fed could be confusing the public with its many voices
    Published Tue, Nov 14 2017 8:22 AM by CNBC
    Janet Yellen admits the Fed could be confusing the public with its many voices<br/>https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/14/janet-yellen-admits-the-fed-could-be-confusing-the-public-with-its-many-voices.html
  • 8:19 AM » CoreLogic Reports Mortgage Delinquency Rates Lowest in More Than a Decade
    Published Tue, Nov 14 2017 8:19 AM by www.corelogic.com
    Overall Mortgage Delinquency Rate Fell 0.6 Percentage Points Year Over Year Foreclosure Rate Declined 0.3 Percentage Points Year Over Year Serious Delinquency Rate Declined 0.5 Percentage Points Year Over Year CoreLogic ® (NYSE: CLGX), a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released its monthly Loan Performance Insights Report which shows that, nationally, 4.6 percent of mortgages were in some stage of delinquency (30 days or more past due including those in foreclosure) in August 2017. This represents a 0.6 percentage point year-over-year decline in the overall delinquency rate compared with August 2016 when it was 5.2 percent. As of August 2017, the foreclosure inventory rate, which measures the share of mortgages in some stage of the foreclosure process, was 0.6 percent, down from 0.9 percent in August 2016. This was the lowest foreclosure inventory rate for the month of August in 11 years since August 2006 when it was 0.5 percent. Measuring early-stage delinquency rates is important for analyzing the health of the mortgage market. To monitor mortgage performance comprehensively, CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency as well as transition rates, which indicate the percentage of mortgages moving from one stage of delinquency to the next. The rate for early-stage delinquencies, defined as 30-59 days past due, was 2 percent in August 2017, down slightly from 2.1 percent in August 2016. The share of mortgages that were 60-89 days past due in August 2017 was 0.7 percent, unchanged from August 2016. The serious delinquency rate (90 days or more past due) declined 0.5 percentage points year over year from 2.4 percent in August 2016 to 1.9 percent in August 2017. The 1.9 percent serious delinquency rate in June, July and August of this year marks the lowest level for any month since October 2007 when it was also 1.9 percent, and is also the lowest for the month of August since 2007 when the...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.corelogic.com
  • Mon, Nov 13 2017
  • 3:53 PM » Fed normalization not a risk for markets, but an opportunity: JPMorgan international chair
    Published Mon, Nov 13 2017 3:53 PM by CNBC
    The Fed's low interest rates were a good mechanism to extinguish a fire, not to stimulate growth, JPMorgan's Frenkel says.
  • 3:53 PM » Haste on Tax Measures May Leave a Trail of Loopholes
    Published Mon, Nov 13 2017 3:53 PM by www.nytimes.com
    When moving a bill at breakneck speed, one law that cannot be repealed is the law of unintended consequences, as corporate tax provisions may prove.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.nytimes.com
  • 3:53 PM » CFPB sues nation's largest debt-settlement services provider
    Published Mon, Nov 13 2017 3:53 PM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    The CFPB has filed a lawsuit in a California federal district court against Freedom Debt Relief (FDR) and its CEO for alleged violations of the Consumer Financial Protection Act (CFPA) and the Telemarketing Sales Rule (TSR). The CFPB’s press release describes Freedom as “the largest debt-settlement services provider in the United States.” According to the... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 12:53 PM » Emerging-Market Bonds See Biggest Yield Jump Since Trump Victory
    Published Mon, Nov 13 2017 12:53 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Emerging-Market Bonds See Biggest Yield Jump Since Trump Victory Bloomberg A Bloomberg Barclays Index of hard-currency emerging-market bonds has fallen for six straight days, capping the biggest weekly yield jump since last year when Donald Trump's victory spurred a selloff in risk assets. The gauge shows average borrowing ... and more »
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Mortgage Rates:
  • 30 Yr FRM 3.97%
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  • 15 Yr FRM 3.31%
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  • Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.14%
MBS Prices:
  • 30YR FNMA 4.5 106-28 (-0-01)
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  • 30YR FNMA 5.0 107-28 (-0-03)
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  • 30YR FNMA 5.5 109-31 (0-05)
Recent Housing Data:
  • Mortgage Apps 3.27%
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  • Refinance Index 5.05%
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  • Purchase Index 1.43%