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  • Fri, Dec 21 2018
  • 2:53 PM » Republican U.S. senators: Talks under way on government funding compromise
    Published Fri, Dec 21 2018 2:53 PM by Reuters
    Republican U.S. Senators said on Friday negotiations were under way to see if a compromise could be reached on a government funding bill that the Senate would pass, as the Senate awaited the completion of a vote on whether to take up a House-approved measure.
  • 1:22 PM » Fed's Williams helps recast some views of Fed when he says it has 'eyes wide open,' is flexible
    Published Fri, Dec 21 2018 1:22 PM by CNBC
    New York Fed President John Williams took a step toward undoing the blunt blow to markets delivered by the Federal Reserve and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday.
  • 12:25 PM » Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate unchanged in Q4 at 4.8%
    Published Fri, Dec 21 2018 12:25 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Reis reported that the apartment vacancy rate was at 4.8% in Q4 2018, unchanged from 4.8% in Q3, and up from 4.6% in Q4 2017.  This ties last month as the highest vacancy rate since Q3 2012. The vacancy rate peaked at 8.0% at the end of 2009, and bottomed at 4.1% in 2016. From Reis: The apartment vacancy rate was flat in the quarter at 4.8% . At year-end 2017 it was 4.6%, while at year-end 2016 it was 4.2%. Both the national average asking rent and effective rent, which nets out landlord concessions, increased 0.8% in the fourth quarter. At $1,440 per unit (market) and $1,370 per unit (effective), the average rents have increased 4.9% and 4.6%, respectively, from the fourth quarter of 2017. Net absorption was 39,732 units, lower than the previous quarter's absorption of 50,502 units and below the average quarterly absorption of 2017 of 46,926 units. Construction was 49,944 units, also below the third quarter's 62,313 units and below the 2017 quarterly average of 61,869 units. ... Apartment construction started to accelerate in 2017 and has remained elevated throughout 2018. This had raised concerns that the apartment market was becoming overbuilt. Yet consistently, apartment occupancy growth has nearly kept pace with supply growth, as demand for apartments has been robust throughout 2018. Not only has job growth supported apartment demand, but the weaker housing market has also benefitted the apartment market: existing home sales climbed in October and November but had fallen in eight of the previous ten months and is down 7% from a year ago. Although mortgage rates have fallen over the last few weeks pushing applications up a bit, the housing market could continue to suffer given the recent stock market declines that have sent jitters throughout the market. Moreover, last year's tax reform that doubled the standard deduction reduced the incentive to buy a home, which has also helped the apartment market. We still expect construction to remain robust...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:12 AM » Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Growth Slowed" in December
    Published Fri, Dec 21 2018 11:12 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Kansas City Fed: Growth in Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Slowed The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the December Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that growth in Tenth District manufacturing activity slowed, while expectations for future activity edged slightly higher. "Factories in our region reported a drop in production in December but continued growth in orders, employment, and capital spending" said Wilkerson. "Several contacts noted difficulties with weather or with having enough workers to meet demand." ... The month-over-month composite index was 3 in December , down from 15 in November and 8 in October. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. The slowdown in factory growth was driven by both durable and nondurable goods producers, particularly metals, electronics, and petroleum/coal products. Most month-over-month indexes fell from the previous month's reading, although the majority remained in positive territory. Exceptions included production, dropping from 24 to -18, and shipments, falling from 31 to -3, and new orders for exports, decreasing from 6 to -7. The employment index edged slightly higher , and new orders and order backlog indexes remained moderately positive. The materials inventory index rose from 15 to 19 and the finished goods inventory index also moved up. emphasis added So far, all of the regional surveys have indicated slower growth in December than in November.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:44 AM » Personal Income increased 0.2% in November, Spending increased 0.4%
    Published Fri, Dec 21 2018 10:44 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for November: Personal income increased $40.2 billion (0.2 percent) in November according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $37.8 billion (0.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $54.4 billion (0.4 percent). Real DPI increased 0.2 percent in November and real PCE increased 0.3 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. The November PCE price index increased 1.8 percent year-over-year and the September PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 1.9 percent year-over-year. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through November 2018 (2012 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change . Click on graph for larger image. The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE. The increase in personal income was below expectations,  and the increase in PCE was above expectations. Using the two-month method to estimate Q4 PCE growth, PCE was increasing at a 3.6% annual rate in Q4 2018.  (using the mid-month method, PCE was also increasing at 3.6%). This suggests solid PCE growth in Q4.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:32 AM » NY Fed President John Williams says the Fed could reevaluate view in 2019
    Published Fri, Dec 21 2018 10:32 AM by CNBC
    Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams made the comments on CNBC's "Squawk on the Street" Friday.
  • 9:49 AM » TREASURIES-Bonds steady as threat of govt shutdown hurts risk appetite
    Published Fri, Dec 21 2018 9:49 AM by CNBC
    NEW YORK, Dec 21- U.S. Trump called on the Senate to pass spending legislation that includes his $5 billion demand for border wall funding. The extra uncertainty caused by the threat of a shutdown is certainly not helping, said Gennadiy Goldberg, an interest rate strategist at TD Securities in New York.
  • 9:25 AM » El-Erian: Fed chief Jerome Powell is trying to break the market's central bank 'co-dependence'
    Published Fri, Dec 21 2018 9:25 AM by CNBC
    Powell would likely say "it's about time the markets stand on their own feet" in response to stocks sinking Wednesday following his press conference, economist Mohamed El-Erian says.
  • 8:36 AM » US economy grew at 3.4% rate in the third quarter
    Published Fri, Dec 21 2018 8:36 AM by CNBC
    The final reading on third-quarter gross domestic product was expected to show growth of 3.5 percent, slowing from the 4.2 percent growth in the previous quarter.
  • 8:06 AM » US Treasury yields continue climb ahead of auctions
    Published Fri, Dec 21 2018 8:06 AM by CNBC
    U.S. government debt prices continued to edge lower on Friday morning, reversing a recent rally, as investors digest the fourth rate hike this year from the U.S. Federal Reserve.
  • 8:06 AM » The Fed's Dovish Signal Rips Through Currency Markets
    Published Fri, Dec 21 2018 8:06 AM by Bloomberg
    The Fed's Dovish Signal Rips Through Currency Markets    Bloomberg A dovish signal from the Federal Reserve sent shock waves through currency markets Thursday, pushing the dollar down to a six-week low.
  • Thu, Dec 20 2018
  • 4:19 PM » Traders see Fed cutting rates, not raising them, in 2020
    Published Thu, Dec 20 2018 4:19 PM by Reuters
    Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday signaled more interest rate hikes over the next couple of years, but traders of U.S. interest rate futures aren't buying it. In fact, they now expect a rate cut in 2020.
  • 4:19 PM » Treasury chief calls market reaction to Fed 'overblown'
    Published Thu, Dec 20 2018 4:19 PM by Reuters
    U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Thursday that investors' reaction to the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes was "completely overblown", in an unusually direct comment on financial market activity.
  • 2:43 PM » What Housing Slowdown? Home Affordability Hits a 10-Year Low
    Published Thu, Dec 20 2018 2:43 PM by www.realtor.com
    The headlines have all been blaring that the housing market is slowing down. But home affordability has reached its lowest level in more than a decade. The post What Housing Slowdown? Home Affordability Hits a 10-Year Low appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 2:43 PM » Phoenix Real Estate in November: Sales down 8% YoY, Active Inventory up slightly YoY
    Published Thu, Dec 20 2018 2:43 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying. The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports ("Stats Report"): 1) Overall sales declined to 6,515 from 7,074 in November 2017. Sales were down 9.3% from October (report has a typo and says "up"), and down 7.9% from November 2017. 2) Active inventory was at 18,162, up slightly from 18,118 in November 2017.   This is up 0.2% year-over-year.  This is the YoY increase in active inventory since 2016. This small YoY increase followed twenty-four consecutive months with a YoY decrease in inventory in Phoenix. Months of supply increased from 3.03 in October to 3.30 in November. This is still low.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:43 PM » Signs of trouble so far just noise to a Fed that sees growth continuing
    Published Thu, Dec 20 2018 2:43 PM by Reuters
    Late fall brought a dust cloud of bad news for the U.S. economy, with shippers like Fedex cutting their global outlook for next year, chipmaker Micron Technology missing its revenue target as demand slides worldwide, and GM trimming 14,000 jobs as sales slow, not to mention a stock market limping into year end.
  • 2:41 PM » California Existing Homes in November: Sales Down 13.4% YoY, Inventory Up 31%
    Published Thu, Dec 20 2018 2:41 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The CAR reported: California housing market sputters in November California home sales remained on a downward trend for the seventh consecutive month in November as prospective buyers continued to wait out the market, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said today. Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 381,400 units in November , according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2018 if sales maintained the November pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales. November's sales figure was down 3.9 percent from the revised 397,060 level in October and down 13.4 percent from home sales in November 2017 of a revised 440,340. November marked the fourth month in a row that sales were below 400,000. ... Statewide active listings rose for the eighth consecutive month after nearly three straight years of declines, increasing 31 percent from the previous year . November's listings increase was the largest since April 2014. The unsold inventory index, which is a ratio of inventory over sales, increased year-to-year from 2.9 months in November 2017 to 3.7 months in November 2018. The index measures the number of months it would take to sell the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate. emphasis added Here is some inventory data from the NAR and CAR (ht Tom Lawler). YOY % Change, Existing SF Homes for Sale   NAR (National) CAR (California) Sep-17 -8.4% -11.2% Oct-17 -10.4% -11.5% Nov-17 -9.7% -11.5% Dec-17 -11.5% -12.0% Jan-18 -9.5% -6.6% Feb-18 -8.6% -1.3% Mar-18 -7.2% -1.0% Apr-18 -6.3% 1.9% May-18 -5.1 8.3% Jun-18 -0.5% 8.1% Jul-18 0.0% 11.9% Aug-18 2.1% 17.2% Sep-18 1.1% 20.4% Oct-18 2.8% 28% Nov-18 4.2% 31%
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:52 PM » Corporate Debt Crises Could Come Faster and Harder in 2019
    Published Thu, Dec 20 2018 1:52 PM by Bloomberg
    Corporate Debt Crises Could Come Faster and Harder in 2019    Bloomberg At first glance, 2019 might look like a quiet year for distressed-debt investors, judging by the small list of troubled bonds coming due. But the light schedule may ...
  • 1:52 PM » Trump balks at government funding bill, raising shutdown fears
    Published Thu, Dec 20 2018 1:52 PM by Reuters
    U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday said he will not sign the Senate's version of a temporary government funding bill, House Speaker Paul Ryan said, a decision that made a partial government shutdown more likely and pressured stock markets.
  • 11:25 AM » Kevin O'Leary chides the Fed for claiming data-dependence while still forecasting two 2019 rate hikes
    Published Thu, Dec 20 2018 11:25 AM by CNBC
    The "Shark Tank" investor says he doesn't understand how the Fed will be data dependent on future rate hikes and propose two more hikes in 2019.
  • 9:45 AM » Philly Fed Mfg "Indicators Remained Muted" in December
    Published Thu, Dec 20 2018 9:45 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Philly Fed: December 2018 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Manufacturing activity in the region continued to grow but remained subdued, according to results from the December Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's broad indicators were positive, but their movements were mixed this month: The general activity and shipments indicators fell from their readings last month, while the indicators for new orders and employment increased. The firms remained generally optimistic about future growth. The diffusion index for current general activity decreased from 12.9 in November to 9.4 this month, its lowest reading since August 2016 The firms continued to report overall higher employment. Over 24 percent of the responding firms reported increases in employment this month, while 6 percent of the firms reported decreases in employment. The current employment index remained positive and edged 2 points higher to 18.3. The current workweek index fell 6 points to 0.5, its lowest reading in 26 months. Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index: Click on graph for larger image. The New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (yellow, through December), and five Fed surveys are averaged (blue, through November) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through November (right axis). This suggests the ISM manufacturing index will show expansion again in December, but will likely be lower than in November.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:04 AM » US Treasury yields tick lower as Fed hikes rates for the fourth time in 2018
    Published Thu, Dec 20 2018 8:04 AM by CNBC
    U.S. government debt prices ticked higher on Thursday as investors digested the fourth rate hike this year from the U.S. Federal Reserve.
  • 8:03 AM » Jeff Gundlach and his deputy think Fed's Powell made a mistake by tightening on 'autopilot'
    Published Thu, Dec 20 2018 8:03 AM by CNBC
    Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made two mistakes during his news conference on Wednesday, according to bond king Jeffrey Gundlach.
  • Wed, Dec 19 2018
  • 4:39 PM » Markets Revolt as Steadfast Powell Whistles Past Recent Sell-Off
    Published Wed, Dec 19 2018 4:39 PM by Bloomberg
    Markets Revolt as Steadfast Powell Whistles Past Recent Sell-Off    Bloomberg The Federal Reserve leaned dovish during its latest policy meeting. Financial markets wanted more.
  • 4:38 PM » Market fears Fed making policy mistake
    Published Wed, Dec 19 2018 4:38 PM by CNBC
    Stocks and bonds both gave back gains after the Federal Reserve disappointed markets with a less cautious statement than expected.
  • 3:25 PM » Powell says Fed has arrived at the lower end of neutral rate range
    Published Wed, Dec 19 2018 3:25 PM by CNBC
    Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell made his comments on Wednesday following the Federal Reserve's decision to hike interest rates.
  • 2:33 PM » Another technical tweak as Fed wrestles to control policy rate
    Published Wed, Dec 19 2018 2:33 PM by Reuters
    The U.S. Federal Reserve continued its quiet battle to keep a firm grip on its policy rate on Wednesday by again narrowing the gap between the effective ceiling and floor that keeps it contained.
  • 2:33 PM » Instant View: Fed raises U.S. rates, sees 'some further' hikes ahead
    Published Wed, Dec 19 2018 2:33 PM by Reuters
    The U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates on Wednesday, as expected, but forecast fewer rate hikes next year and signaled its tightening cycle is nearing an end in the face of financial market volatility and slowing global growth.
  • 2:33 PM » Fed lifts rates, now sees 'some further' hikes ahead
    Published Wed, Dec 19 2018 2:33 PM by Reuters
    The U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates on Wednesday, as expected, but forecast fewer rate hikes next year and signaled its tightening cycle is nearing an end in the face of financial market volatility and slowing global growth.
  • 1:43 PM » Here are the three big changes the stock market is hoping to see from the Fed
    Published Wed, Dec 19 2018 1:43 PM by CNBC
    The Fed is expected to unveil some big changes Wednesday afternoon when it releases its statement and new economic projections that could impact the course of markets through the end of this year and possibly into next year.
  • 11:59 AM » Fed expected to increase rates, may signal fewer hikes ahead
    Published Wed, Dec 19 2018 11:59 AM by Reuters
    The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates on Wednesday, but may cut the number of hikes it anticipates next year and signal an earlier end to its monetary tightening in the face of financial market volatility and rising recession fears.
  • 10:37 AM » Congress to push stop-gap funding bill with no border wall money
    Published Wed, Dec 19 2018 10:37 AM by Reuters
    The U.S. Congress, aiming to avoid a partial government shutdown at the end of this week, on Wednesday began advancing legislation to temporarily fund several federal agencies through Feb. 8, but without money for a U.S.-Mexico border wall that President Donald Trump demanded.
  • 10:10 AM » Existing home sales unexpectedly rise in November
    Published Wed, Dec 19 2018 10:10 AM by CNBC
    U.S. home sales unexpectedly rose in November, but recorded their biggest annual decline in 7½ years, adding to other data that have painted a grim picture of the housing market.
  • 8:33 AM » The Fed's IOER Experiment May Already Be Reaching Its Limits
    Published Wed, Dec 19 2018 8:33 AM by Bloomberg
    The Fed's IOER Experiment May Already Be Reaching Its Limits    Bloomberg The Federal Reserve's latest strategy to control its key interest rate may already be reaching its limits.
  • 8:02 AM » Fed is about to make its most important announcement of the year. Here's what Wells Fargo predicts
    Published Wed, Dec 19 2018 8:02 AM by CNBC
    Wells Fargo's Michael Schumacher believes Wednesday's Fed decision will calm Wall Street jitters.
  • 8:01 AM » Redfin's 2019 Predictions: Housing market will be coolest we've seen in years, but homeownership will continue to rise
    Published Wed, Dec 19 2018 8:01 AM by www.redfin.com
    We predict that the housing market will continue to cool into the first half of 2019. Inventory will rise back up to 2017 levels, and price growth, while likely still positive, will be the lowest we've seen since 2014 or possibly even 2011. Investors and house-flippers will back away from the cooling market, and real […] The post Redfin's 2019 Predictions: Housing market will be coolest we've seen in years, but homeownership will continue to rise appeared first on Redfin Real-Time .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.redfin.com
  • Tue, Dec 18 2018
  • 4:59 PM » Mnuchin Hints at Fannie-Freddie Changes to End U.S. Control
    Published Tue, Dec 18 2018 4:59 PM by Bloomberg
    Mnuchin Hints at Fannie-Freddie Changes to End U.S. Control    Bloomberg The Trump administration wants to work with Congress on freeing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from government control, though it's considering pursuing some ...
  • 4:34 PM » Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November
    Published Tue, Dec 18 2018 4:34 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From housing economist Tom Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports from across the country released through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.23 million in November, virtually unchanged from October's preliminary pace (which based on local realtor/MLS data seemed low) and down 8.7% from last November's seasonally adjusted pace. On the inventory front, local realtor/MLS data, as well as data from other inventory trackers, suggest that the inventory of existing homes for sale in November was up by about 4.8% from last November. Finally, local realtor/MLS data suggest that the median US existing single-family home sales price last month was up about 4.1% from last November. CR Note: The NAR is scheduled to release November existing home sales tomorrow, Wednesday, Dec 19th. The consensus is that the NAR will report sales of 5.19 million SAAR.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:18 PM » Fed Stuck In An Uncomfortable Situation
    Published Tue, Dec 18 2018 2:18 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From Professor Tim Duy at Fed Watch: Fed Stuck In An Uncomfortable Situation The Federal Reserve faces a most uncomfortable confluence of events as central bankers begin their two-day meeting to ponder the path of rate policy. In a nutshell, equities continued to struggle in the midst of fairly solid data as President Trump complains yet again about rate hikes while stoking the uncertainty that appears at least partly if not mostly to blame for the volatile equity markets. Yes, I know, it's a lot to follow. Hopefully I can break it down into more manageable pieces. Bottom Line: The baseline case is for a dovish hike that basically sends the message that the data is consistent with another rate hike but IF the economy turns slower more quickly than anticipated, this will be the last hike for some time if not the last hike of the cycle. The risk is that the Fed skips this meeting and leaves January open IF the data continues to support a hike. It is worth thinking about what the Fed would need to do to offset the impacts Trumpian uncertainty should that bleed over from Wall Street to Main Street. CR Note: Duy thinks it is likely the FOMC will "Hike rates 25 basis points to push rates at the edge of the lower range of neutral estimates" and 'Drop "further gradual increases" for language that imparts much more uncertainty about the future path of rate hikes.' This would be a "dovish hike".
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:15 PM » Sales of New Homes Flatten as Supply and Prices Post Modest Growth in the Third Quarter
    Published Tue, Dec 18 2018 2:15 PM by www.redfin.com
    Builders are lowering prices and offering complimentary upgrades and other incentives to lure Dallas-area buyers. The post Sales of New Homes Flatten as Supply and Prices Post Modest Growth in the Third Quarter appeared first on Redfin Real-Time .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.redfin.com
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