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  • Thu, Nov 29 2018
  • 9:09 AM » Personal Income increased 0.5% in October, Spending increased 0.6%
    Published Thu, Nov 29 2018 9:09 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for October: Personal income increased $84.9 billion (0.5 percent) in October according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $81.7 billion (0.5 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $86.9 billion (0.6 percent). Real DPI increased 0.3 percent in October and Real PCE increased 0.4 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.2 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. The October PCE price index increased 2.0 percent year-over-year and the October PCE price index, excluding food and energy, also increased 1.8 percent year-over-year. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through October 2018 (2012 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change . Click on graph for larger image. The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE. The increase in personal income, and the increase in PCE, were both above expectations.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:54 AM » Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 234,000
    Published Thu, Nov 29 2018 8:54 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The DOL reported : In the week ending November 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 234,000 , an increase of 10,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 224,000. The 4-week moving average was 223,250, an increase of 4,750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 218,500. emphasis added The previous week was unrevised. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 223,250. This was higher than the consensus forecast, and initial claims have increased recently. However the low level of claims suggest few layoffs.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:04 AM » US 10-Year Yield Approaches 3% as Rate Bets Return to Earth
    Published Thu, Nov 29 2018 8:04 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg US 10-Year Yield Slides Below 3% as Rate Bets Return to Earth Bloomberg Treasuries rallied, pushing 10-year yields below 3 percent for the first time since September, amid speculation prospects are diminishing for global interest-rate increases next year. European bonds also gained. U.S. money-market pricing showed traders ... and more »
  • 8:04 AM » How a Dovish Tone at the Fed Sounded Across Markets
    Published Thu, Nov 29 2018 8:04 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg How a Dovish Tone at the Fed Sounded Across Markets Bloomberg From emerging-market bonds to developed-nation currencies, the ripples from Jerome Powell's comments on interest rates barreled through markets in seconds. The Federal Reserve chairman, who warned in October that monetary policy was "a long way ... and more »
  • Wed, Nov 28 2018
  • 2:55 PM » Did Powell Just Put a Floor Under Stocks? Wall Street Weighs In
    Published Wed, Nov 28 2018 2:55 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Did Powell Just Put a Floor Under Stocks? Wall Street Weighs In Bloomberg Stocks charged higher after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered a double-dose of fuel for equity bulls, on interest rates and valuations. But can it put a lasting end to volatility that has bedeviled investors for two months? Wall Street ... and more »
  • 1:01 PM » Instant View: Fed's gradual rate hikes balance against risks - Powell
    Published Wed, Nov 28 2018 1:01 PM by Reuters
    U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that while there was "a great deal to like" about U.S. prospects, the Fed's gradual interest-rate hikes are meant to balance risks as it tries to keep the economy on track.
  • 1:01 PM » After Powell comments, traders only see two more interest rate hikes
    Published Wed, Nov 28 2018 1:01 PM by CNBC
    Stocks surged and bonds sold off in a powerful move after market pros took Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's comment to mean the Fed is nearing an end of its rate hiking cycle.
  • 10:46 AM » BlackRock's bond king: Fed rates could already be at neutral given the pockets of economic weakness
    Published Wed, Nov 28 2018 10:46 AM by CNBC
    BlackRock global fixed income CIO Rick Rieder sees a December rate hike and maybe only one or two next year.
  • 10:22 AM » New Home Sales decrease to 544,000 Annual Rate in October
    Published Wed, Nov 28 2018 10:22 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 544 thousand. The previous three months were revised up significantly. "Sales of new single-family houses in October 2018 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 544,000 , according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 8.9 percent  below the revised September rate of 597,000 and is 12.0 percent below the October 2017 estimate of 618,000. " emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate. Even with the increase in sales over the last several years, new home sales are still somewhat low historically. The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply. The months of supply decreased in October to 7.4 months from 6.5 months in September. The all time record was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009. This is above the normal range (less than 6 months supply is normal). "The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of October was 336,000. This represents a supply of 7.4 months at the current sales rate." On inventory, according to the Census Bureau : "A house is considered for sale when a permit to build has been issued in permit-issuing places or work has begun on the footings or foundation in nonpermit areas and a sales contract has not been signed nor a deposit accepted." Starting in 1973 the Census Bureau broke this down into three categories: Not Started, Under Construction, and Completed. The third graph shows the three categories of inventory starting in 1973. The inventory of completed homes for sale is still somewhat low, and the combined total of completed and under construction is a little low. The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate). In October 2018...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:20 AM » Fed stability report: Banks, households strong, but asset values 'elevated'
    Published Wed, Nov 28 2018 10:20 AM by Reuters
    Tensions over trade, the turbulent Brexit discussions, and trouble in China and emerging markets could rock a U.S. financial system where asset prices are "elevated" and business credit quality may be "deteriorating," the U.S. Federal Reserve said in a first-ever report devoted to financial stability.
  • 9:28 AM » Some Easing of AD&C Lending, According to Builders and Developers
    Published Wed, Nov 28 2018 9:28 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    In the third quarter of 2018, credit conditions eased somewhat, according to the builders and developers responding to NAHB’s survey on land acquisition, development, and construction (AD&C) loans. The net tightening index constructed from the NAHB survey was -12.0 in the third quarter quarter, compared to -5.0 the previous quarter. The index is constructed so negative numbers indicate easing of credit; positive tightening, so... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 8:37 AM » Third-quarter GDP unrevised at 3.5%, in line with estimates
    Published Wed, Nov 28 2018 8:37 AM by CNBC
    The second estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product was forecast to rise 3.5 percent, in line with the preliminary reading and slowing from the 4.2 percent growth in the prior quarter.
  • 8:05 AM » FOMC Will Stay the Course, Goldman's Wilson Says
    Published Wed, Nov 28 2018 8:05 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg FOMC Will Stay the Course, Goldman's Wilson Says Bloomberg Andrew Wilson, chief executive officer for EMEA and global head of fixed income at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, discusses the Federal Reserve's rate path and U.S. economic outlook for 2019. He speaks with Bloomberg's Francine Lacqua on ...
  • 8:01 AM » The 4 Key Trends Home Buyers and Sellers Should Watch in 2019
    Published Wed, Nov 28 2018 8:01 AM by www.realtor.com
    The realtor.com economic research team analyzed a wealth of housing data to come up with a forecast of what 2019 might hold for home buyers and sellers-and it looks like both groups are going to be facing some challenges. The post The 4 Key Trends Home Buyers and Sellers Should Watch in 2019 appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • Tue, Nov 27 2018
  • 4:14 PM » House releases last-minute tax breaks, amid uncertainty over passage
    Published Tue, Nov 27 2018 4:14 PM by CNBC
    If you were going to take a deduction for your mortgage insurance or college expenses, prepare to sit tight for a few weeks. The House Ways and Means Committee has released a new proposal that addresses certain tax breaks and paves the way for new retirement initiatives.
  • 4:14 PM » Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in September
    Published Tue, Nov 27 2018 4:14 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Here is the earlier post on Case-Shiller: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.5% year-over-year in September It has been over eleven years since the bubble peak. In the Case-Shiller release this morning, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 10.8% above the previous bubble peak. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is still about 8.5% below the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices).  The composite 20, in real terms, is still 12.4% below the bubble peak. The year-over-year increase in prices has slowed to 5.5% nationally, and will probably slow more as inventory picks up. Usually people graph nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms (inflation adjusted).  Case-Shiller and others report nominal house prices.  As an example, if a house price was $200,000 in January 2000, the price would be close to $286,000 today adjusted for inflation (43%).  That is why the second graph below is important - this shows "real" prices (adjusted for inflation). Nominal House Prices The first graph shows the monthly Case-Shiller National Index SA, and the monthly Case-Shiller Composite 20 SA (through August) in nominal terms as reported. In nominal terms, the Case-Shiller National index (SA)and the Case-Shiller Composite 20 Index (SA) are both at new all times highs (above the bubble peak). Real House Prices The second graph shows the same two indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter). Note: some people use other inflation measures to adjust for real prices. In real terms, the National index is back to January 2005 levels, and the Composite 20 index is back to June 2004. In real terms, house prices are at 2004/2005 levels. Price-to-Rent In October 2004, Fed economist John Krainer and researcher Chishen Wei wrote a Fed letter on price to rent ratios: House Prices and Fundamental...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:14 PM » Ex-Fed Governor Tarullo Sees Fed Close to Autopilot in Last Year
    Published Tue, Nov 27 2018 1:14 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Ex-Fed Governor Tarullo Sees Fed Close to Autopilot in Last Year Bloomberg Former Federal Reserve Governor Dan Tarullo discusses the Federal Reserve's awareness of risks, the Fed's rate path, the influence of President Donald Trump, and changes to bank regulation. He speaks on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas." (Source: ...
  • 1:10 PM » Apartments are getting smaller – but renters are paying more
    Published Tue, Nov 27 2018 1:10 PM by CNBC
    The average size of newly built apartments in the U.S. is shrinking, but rents are still rising. Millennials appear to be more willing to pay for smaller units that are located in urban centers where rents are highest.
  • 11:22 AM » FHFA Announces Maximum Conforming Loan Limits for 2019
    Published Tue, Nov 27 2018 11:22 AM by FHFA
    The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) today announced the maximum conforming loan limits for mortgages to be acquired by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in 2019. In most of the U.S., the 2019 maximum conforming loan limit for one-unit properties will be $484,350, an increase from $453,100 in 2018.
  • 10:32 AM » Slight Growth for Custom Home Building
    Published Tue, Nov 27 2018 10:32 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    NAHB's analysis of Census Data from the Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design survey indicates custom home building posted a small gain on a year-over-year basis. There were 54,000 total custom starts for the third quarter of 2018. This was a slight improvement over the third quarter of 2017 (51,000). Over the last four quarters, ending with the third quarter... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 10:18 AM » Consumer confidence hits 135.7 in November, vs. estimate of 135.9
    Published Tue, Nov 27 2018 10:18 AM by CNBC
    Consumer confidence hits 135.7 in November, vs. estimate of 135.9|| 105594741
  • 9:49 AM » Fed wants smallest possible portfolio, says Vice Chair Clarida
    Published Tue, Nov 27 2018 9:49 AM by Reuters
    The U.S. Federal Reserve ultimately wants to have the smallest balance sheet possible while still being able to control its policy rate, Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida said on Tuesday.
  • 8:43 AM » Fed's Clarida says interest rates are 'much closer' to neutral
    Published Tue, Nov 27 2018 8:43 AM by CNBC
    Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida expressed a cautious view Tuesday about how the central bank should proceed in raising interest rates.
  • 8:07 AM » 10 Cities Where Americans Are Deepest in Debt—but Still Buy Homes!
    Published Tue, Nov 27 2018 8:07 AM by www.realtor.com
    The realtor.com data team set out to find the U.S. housing markets where home buyers are going the deepest into debt to buy a home-and where their debt burden is lightest. The post 10 Cities Where Americans Are Deepest in Debt-but Still Buy Homes! appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 8:00 AM » El-Erian: Fed will have to hike rates again next month or risk appearing politically influenced
    Published Tue, Nov 27 2018 8:00 AM by CNBC
    "It is very hard for the Fed right now to go back to three hikes," says Mohamed El-Erian, the chief economic advisor at Allianz.
  • Mon, Nov 26 2018
  • 4:15 PM » JPMorgan Says Plunging US Options Signal Simply Shows Caution
    Published Mon, Nov 26 2018 4:15 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg JPMorgan Says Plunging US Options Signal Simply Shows Caution Bloomberg A key gauge of S&P 500 Index options activity has tumbled to multiyear lows, which some might see as a signal investors are underhedged. But JPMorgan Chase & Co. doesn't think so. The plunge in the S&P 500 put/call open interest ratio, which measures ...
  • 4:14 PM » To Discover an Up-and-Coming Neighborhood, Look for the Museum
    Published Mon, Nov 26 2018 4:14 PM by www.realtor.com
    The biggest thing at the museum these days isn't the latest impressionism exhibit. It's the real estate surrounding the museum that's generating buzz. The post To Discover an Up-and-Coming Neighborhood, Look for the Museum appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 2:14 PM » Oldest (and Youngest) Homeowner Average Age by Metro
    Published Mon, Nov 26 2018 2:14 PM by blog.stewart.com
    There is one statement that is almost always true among the majority of homeowners: Homeownership is an older person's game. The key word is majority. While younger people buy housing every day, when the homeownership metric is viewed with respect to age, it is highly correlated. LendingTree examined the 100 largest metros in the U.S. … Read more
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: blog.stewart.com
  • 2:14 PM » Entry-Level Home Inventory Yields Declining New Home Size
    Published Mon, Nov 26 2018 2:14 PM by eyeonhousing.org
    Continuing a multiyear trend, new single-family home size decreased during the third quarter of 2018. New home size has been falling over the last three years due to an incremental move to additional entry-level home construction. According to third quarter 2018 data from the Census Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design and NAHB analysis, median single-family square floor area decreased to 2,320 square... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 12:44 PM » History Shows Fed Pause May Require More Than an SOS From Stocks
    Published Mon, Nov 26 2018 12:44 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg History Shows Fed Pause May Require More Than an SOS From Stocks Bloomberg The U.S. stocks sell-off has stirred memories of past market turbulence as investors begin to question the viability of the Federal Reserve's tightening path. While it's come to the market's rescue in the past, it hasn't done so recently without a ...
  • 11:30 AM » Draghi Foresees an Italy-EU Deal, Reminds Rome of Need for Trust
    Published Mon, Nov 26 2018 11:30 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Draghi Foresees an Italy-EU Deal, Reminds Rome of Need for Trust Bloomberg European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said he's "always been confident" that Italy can reach a deal with the European Union in the standoff over the nation's budget, adding a veiled admonition about trust to his home country. "Trust hinges on ... and more »
  • 10:56 AM » Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Expansion Continues to Moderate"
    Published Mon, Nov 26 2018 10:56 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Expansion Continues to Moderate Texas factory activity continued to expand in November, albeit at a markedly slower pace, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, remained positive but fell nine points to 8.4, indicating output growth continued to abate. Other indexes of manufacturing activity also suggested notably slower expansion in November. The survey's demand indicators-the new orders and growth rate of new orders indexes-declined to 9.7 and 4.8, respectively, representing their lowest readings in 20 months. The capacity utilization index fell six points to 9.4, and the shipments index fell nine points to 7.7, both at their lowest levels in at least 20 months. Perceptions of broader business conditions remained positive overall but were less optimistic than in October. The general business activity and company outlook indexes posted double-digit declines, coming in at 17.6 and 13.7, respectively. These readings are lower than what has been seen over the past year but still well above long-term averages . The index measuring uncertainty regarding companies' outlooks rose five points to 12.3, indicating uncertainty was more widespread this month. Labor market measures suggested continued but slower employment growth and longer workweeks in November. The employment index retreated eight points to 15.9, a level well above average. Twenty-three percent of firms noted net hiring, compared with 7 percent noting net layoffs. The hours worked index edged down to 4.9. emphasis added This is a solid reading, but suggests growth is slowing in the Texas region. So far the regional surveys suggest the national ISM index will be solid in November, but probably down from the October reading of 57.7.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:20 AM » 2019 will see lower returns and more volatility, bond expert says
    Published Mon, Nov 26 2018 10:20 AM by CNBC
    Investors warned of higher rates globally next year following 2018 economic "peak" for U.S.
  • 10:19 AM » Trade deal or not, the long-range prospects for US-China relations are growing more troubling
    Published Mon, Nov 26 2018 10:19 AM by webfeeds.brookings.edu
    Anticipation has been building for weeks over whether President Trump and President Xi Jinping will achieve a breakthrough on trade tensions when they meet on the margins of the G-20 summit later this week in Argentina. President Trump and his staff have at various times stoked such expectations, suggesting that China wants a deal. As…                
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: webfeeds.brookings.edu
  • 9:22 AM » Chicago Fed "Index Points to a Slight Increase in Economic Growth in October"
    Published Mon, Nov 26 2018 9:22 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Chicago Fed: Index Points to a Slight Increase in Economic Growth in October Led by improvements in employment-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.24 in October from +0.14 in Septembe r. Only one of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from September, but three of the four categories made positive contributions to the index in October. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, ticked up to +0.31 in October from +0.30 in September. emphasis added This graph shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (three month moving average) since 1967. Click on graph for larger image. This suggests economic activity was slightly above the historical trend in October (using the three-month average). According to the Chicago Fed: The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories. ... A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:26 AM » Priced to Sell! 9 Discounted Homes Ready for Holiday Shoppers
    Published Mon, Nov 26 2018 8:26 AM by www.realtor.com
    Skip the mall and ditch the online shopping carts! Here are nine homes from across the country, all discounted in time for holiday bargain shopping. The post Priced to Sell! 9 Discounted Homes Ready for Holiday Shoppers appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 8:06 AM » December Hike Gets Us Closer to Neutral, Says Bank of Singapore's Jooste
    Published Mon, Nov 26 2018 8:06 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg December Hike Gets Us Closer to Neutral, Says Bank of Singapore's Jooste Bloomberg Johan Jooste, head of rates at the Bank of Singapore, discusses his outlook for Fed policy. He speaks on "Bloomberg Markets: China Open." (Source: Bloomberg). More From Bloomberg Markets · 02:35. Allianz to Open Insurance Unit in China · 04:11.
  • Fri, Nov 23 2018
  • 1:54 PM » Our 15-Year Quest to Find the Perfect Place to Retire
    Published Fri, Nov 23 2018 1:54 PM by www.realtor.com
    The story of how one couple planned, saved and visited 21 cities before picking the perfect spot to build their dream home. The post Our 15-Year Quest to Find the Perfect Place to Retire appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 12:53 PM » Bank of Italy Warns of Risks From Low Growth, High Public Debt
    Published Fri, Nov 23 2018 12:53 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Bank of Italy Warns of Risks From Low Growth, High Public Debt Bloomberg Italy's central bank warned that low growth and high public debt pose the greatest risks to financial stability, while further sovereign bond market tensions would hurt banks' capital and the solvency position of insurers. In its Financial Stability ...
  • 11:55 AM » Oil Prices Down Year-over-year
    Published Fri, Nov 23 2018 11:55 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From CNBC: Oil plunges 7% to lowest level in more than a year Oil prices slumped on Friday to their lowest levels in more than a year, deepening a rapid seven-week sell-off that has plunged crude futures deep into a bear market. International benchmark Brent crude dropped $3.52, or 5.6 percent, to $59.08 at 10:20 a.m. ET. The contract hit $58.92, its lowest level since Oct. 27, 2017, earlier in the session. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude fell $3.59, or 6.6 percent, to $51.04. WTI briefly slid about 7 percent to $50.60, its weakest price since Oct. 12, 2017. Click on graph for larger image The first graph shows WTI and Brent spot oil prices from the EIA . (Prices today added). According to  Bloomberg , WTI is at $50.92 per barrel today, and Brent is at $58.77. Prices collapsed in 2008 due to the financial crisis, and then increased as the economy recovered.   Oil prices collapsed again in 2014 and 2015, mostly due to oversupply. Last year oil prices rose sharply again. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in WTI based on data from the EIA . Six times since 1987, oil prices have increased 100% or more YoY.  And several times prices have almost fallen in half YoY.   Oil prices are volatile! Currently WTI is down 10% year-over-year. Although the U.S. is still a net importer of oil, oil production has increased significantly in the U.S..  Declining oil prices negatively impact certain regions and segments (like heavy truck sales).
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
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