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  • Wed, Jan 30 2019
  • 11:45 AM » Redfin Report: Seattle Reclaims its Migration-Destination Status
    Published Wed, Jan 30 2019 11:45 AM by www.redfin.com
    More People Look to Move to the Emerald City than Leave for Third Quarter in a Row as Denver Secures its Spot on the 'Moving Out' List Twenty-five percent of Redfin.com home searchers looked to move to another metro area in the fourth quarter of 2018, compared to 23 percent during the same period last […] The post Redfin Report: Seattle Reclaims its Migration-Destination Status appeared first on Redfin Real-Time .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.redfin.com
  • 10:04 AM » December pending home sales drop to lowest point in five years, despite much lower interest rates
    Published Wed, Jan 30 2019 10:04 AM by CNBC
    House hunters signed 2.2 percent fewer contracts to buy existing homes in December, according to the National Association of Realtors. These so-called pending sales are a future indicator of closings in one to two months. The Realtors' pending home sales index was also down a dramatic 9.8 percent compared with December 2017, marking 12 straight months of annual declines.
  • 8:02 AM » Fed is likely to hold rates steady as it navigates data blind spots
    Published Wed, Jan 30 2019 8:02 AM by CNBC
    In the six weeks since a confident U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates in response to a "strong" U.S. economy, consumer confidence dropped, wholesale prices weakened, financial markets wobbled and home sales fell.
  • Tue, Jan 29 2019
  • 3:40 PM » Bond King Jeffrey Gundlach says we just got 'the most recessionary signal' yet
    Published Tue, Jan 29 2019 3:40 PM by CNBC
    While confidence in the broader confidence index remains strong, the Expectations Index tumbled from 97.7 to 87.3 from December. Wide gaps have pointed to recessions in the past.
  • 3:40 PM » UK parliament rejects Labour's Brexit amendment
    Published Tue, Jan 29 2019 3:40 PM by Reuters
    British lawmakers voted 327 to 296 on Tuesday against a proposal which called for parliament to consider alternative options to prevent Britain leaving the European Union without a deal.
  • 3:40 PM » British lawmakers vote down bid to prevent no-deal Brexit
    Published Tue, Jan 29 2019 3:40 PM by Reuters
    British lawmakers voted on Tuesday against a bid to prevent a potentially disorderly no-deal Brexit by wresting control of the negotiations from Prime Minister Theresa May if she fails to secure concessions from Brussels.
  • 3:40 PM » Fed Seen Pausing Rate Hikes But Still Moving Twice This Year
    Published Tue, Jan 29 2019 3:40 PM by Bloomberg
    Fed Seen Pausing Rate Hikes But Still Moving Twice This Year    Bloomberg The Federal Reserve may have taken a break but it hasn't finished raising interest rates, according to a new Bloomberg survey of economists.
  • 1:16 PM » San Jose Home Prices Down 8% From Last Year, Falling for First Time Since 2012
    Published Tue, Jan 29 2019 1:16 PM by www.redfin.com
    In San Jose, December 2018 and the first few weeks of 2019 brought new lows for home-price growth and bidding wars. The median home price in the San Jose metro area was down 8 percent annually to $975,000 for the month ending on January 20. That continues a trend that began in December when local home […] The post San Jose Home Prices Down 8% From Last Year, Falling for First Time Since 2012 appeared first on Redfin Real-Time .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.redfin.com
  • 1:14 PM » Recession Odds Spike to Highest in 3 Years
    Published Tue, Jan 29 2019 1:14 PM by CNBC
    CNBC FED SURVEY: CNBC'S STEVE LIESMAN: RECESSION ODDS SPIKE TO THEIR HIGHEST IN THREE YEARS|| 105706825
  • 1:13 PM » Fed's Powell works Congress as Trump stews over rate hikes
    Published Tue, Jan 29 2019 1:13 PM by Reuters
    U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has been meeting with lawmakers at a faster clip than his two predecessors, a push that appears to be earning him allies as he navigates tricky monetary policy waters and vocal White House criticism.
  • 11:04 AM » Consumer confidence hits 120.2 in January, vs estimate of 124.9
    Published Tue, Jan 29 2019 11:04 AM by CNBC
    U.S. consumer confidence was expected to fall to 124.9 in January from the 128.1 reading for the previous month.
  • 10:13 AM » Mortgage Market Moves
    Published Tue, Jan 29 2019 10:13 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    As has been discussed, information compiled by Freddie Mac shows that mortgage rates reversed coursed in December. The 30-year FRM – Commitment rate, which had been increasing since August, fell by 23 basis points to 4.64 percent from 4.87 percent in November. The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported that the contract rate for newly-built homes, inched up two basis points... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 9:48 AM » Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.2% year-over-year in November
    Published Tue, Jan 29 2019 9:48 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for November ("October" is a 3 month average of September, October and November prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. Note: Case-Shiller reports Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), I use the SA data for the graphs. From S&P: Southwest Region Leads in Annual Gains According to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.2% annual gain in November , down from 5.3% in the previous month. The 10City Composite annual increase came in at 4.3%, down from 4.7% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 4.7% year-over-year gain, down from 5.0% in the previous month. Las Vegas, Phoenix and Seattle reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In November, Las Vegas led the way with a 12.0% year-over-year price increase, followed by Phoenix with an 8.1% increase and Seattle with a 6.3% increase. Seven of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending November 2018 versus the year ending October 2018. ... Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month gain of 0.1% in November. The 10-City and 20-City Composites both reported a 0.1% decrease for the month. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.4% month-over-month increase in November. The 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite both posted 0.3% month-over-month increases. In November, eight of 20 cities reported increases before seasonal adjustment, while 15 of 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment. "Home prices are still rising, but more slowly than in recent months," says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "The pace of...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:05 AM » These are the three things markets are expecting to hear from the Fed and Jerome Powell
    Published Tue, Jan 29 2019 8:05 AM by CNBC
    The Fed is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting this week, and chairman Jerome Powell is expected to go out of his way to not rock financial markets.
  • 8:05 AM » US Treasury yields mixed ahead of Fed meeting
    Published Tue, Jan 29 2019 8:05 AM by CNBC
    U.S. government debt prices were mixed on Tuesday morning amid trade war fears and ahead of a new meeting for the Federal Reserve.
  • 8:03 AM » The Fed's Balance Sheet Is Misunderstood
    Published Tue, Jan 29 2019 8:03 AM by Bloomberg
    The Fed's Balance Sheet Is Misunderstood    Bloomberg The Federal Reserve finds itself in a tricky position with its balance sheet policy. Years of bond purchases via quantitative easing caused the central bank's ...
  • Mon, Jan 28 2019
  • 4:19 PM » U.S. fourth-quarter GDP, December income spending reports delayed
    Published Mon, Jan 28 2019 4:19 PM by Reuters
    The U.S. Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) said on Monday it was delaying the release of advance fourth-quarter gross domestic product and December personal income reports scheduled for this week because of the just-ended five-week partial shutdown of the federal government.
  • 3:17 PM » The CBO thinks the Fed is going to raise interest rates this year, disagreeing with Wall Street
    Published Mon, Jan 28 2019 3:17 PM by CNBC
    Wall Street may not be anticipating any interest rate increases this year, but government forecasters disagree as the need to control inflation may outweigh concerns expressed in markets.
  • 3:17 PM » Government Shutdown Is Over, So Where Is the Economic Data?
    Published Mon, Jan 28 2019 3:17 PM by www.nytimes.com
    Forecasters, investors and policymakers lack many of the reports they rely on, just as concerns grow that the nation's economic expansion could be ending.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.nytimes.com
  • 3:14 PM » China worries send stocks down, rising supply hits oil
    Published Mon, Jan 28 2019 3:14 PM by Reuters
    Global stock markets tumbled on Monday after Caterpillar and Nvidia Corp warned of weak Chinese demand while oil headed for its biggest one-day drop in a month on expectations of growing U.S. crude supply.
  • 3:13 PM » CFPB issues annual report on servicemember complaints
    Published Mon, Jan 28 2019 3:13 PM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    The CFPB's Office of Servicemember Affairs has released its annual report on complaints submitted to the Bureau by servicemembers. The report covers the period April 1, 2017 through August 31, 2018. During that period, the Bureau received approximately 48,800 complaints from servicemembers, with credit reporting, debt collection, and mortgages, respectively, the first, second, and third... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 1:14 PM » Merrill on NFP
    Published Mon, Jan 28 2019 1:14 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Here is Merrill Lynch economists forecast for the January non-farm payroll report: We look for nonfarm payrolls to grow by 185k in January following a strong gain of 312k in December. We expect private payrolls, which excludes government workers to increase by 185k, implying no change in government payrolls in January. Our private payrolls tracker based on internal BAC data is looking for somewhat stronger employment growth of 232k but we see a few reasons to fade the strength this month. ... We also see some downside risk to private payroll employment growth due to the partial federal government shutdown. According to news reports, some government contractors have furloughed or laid off private workers while others employers have paused hiring activity during the shutdown. These disruptions may not be fully captured by our internal data as our data present a degree of selection bias, including but not limited to, income levels and geographies (Note that the BLS will count Federal Government workers that are currently furloughed as on payrolls since they will receive backpay). Elsewhere, we estimate that the unemployment rate should be unchanged at 3.9% in January with a risk of it rising to 4% as furloughed workers will be counted as "unemployed on temporary layoff" in the household survey. This mentions two key points: Government jobs on furlough will be counted in the establishment report since the workers will receive backpay, however those on furlough will be counted as unemployed (on temporary layoff) in the household report - so the unemployment rate might increase a little in January (perhaps to 4.1%).
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:55 AM » U.S. growth to slow in 2019 as deficit climbs: congressional researchers
    Published Mon, Jan 28 2019 11:55 AM by Reuters
    U.S. economic growth will slow this year to 2.3 percent from 3.1 percent in 2018, as the stimulative effects of President Donald Trump's tax cuts wane and the federal budget deficit climbs to nearly $900 billion, congressional researchers said on Monday.
  • 11:15 AM » The shutdown cost the economy $11 billion – including a permanent $3 billion loss, government says
    Published Mon, Jan 28 2019 11:15 AM by CNBC
    Overall, the CBO projected economic growth will slow this year to 2.3 percent, compared to the 3.1 percent rate last year, as the benefits of the new tax law begin to fade.
  • 10:52 AM » Dallas Fed: "Growth in Texas Manufacturing Activity Accelerates"
    Published Mon, Jan 28 2019 10:52 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Dallas Fed: Growth in Texas Manufacturing Activity Accelerates Texas factory activity continued to expand in January, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose from 7.3 to 14.5, indicating an acceleration in output growth. Other measures of manufacturing activity also suggested continued expansion in January, although the pace of demand growth slowed a bit. The capacity utilization index rose seven points to 14.8, and the shipments index rose five points to 11.4. Meanwhile, the new orders index edged down to 11.6 and the growth rate of new orders index fell from 5.8 to 1.2. Perceptions of broader business conditions improved in January. The general business activity index rebounded from a multiyear low of -5.1 in December to 1.0 in January. This near-zero reading suggests manufacturers were fairly balanced in their assessment of whether activity had improved or worsened from last month. The company outlook index also rebounded from negative territory this month, rising more than 10 points to 7.1. Labor market measures suggested slower growth in employment and workweek length in January . The employment index retreated four points to 6.6, a two-year low. Sixteen percent of firms noted net hiring, compared with 10 percent noting net layoffs. The hours worked index edged down to 3.6. emphasis added This was the last of the regional Fed surveys for December. Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index: Click on graph for larger image. The New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (yellow, through January), and five Fed surveys are averaged (blue, through January) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through December (right axis). Based on these regional surveys, it seems likely the ISM manufacturing index will be at...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:32 AM » Powell on the Spot After Fed's Monetary Messages Whipsaw Market
    Published Mon, Jan 28 2019 10:32 AM by Bloomberg
    Powell on the Spot After Fed's Monetary Messages Whipsaw Market    Bloomberg Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has some further explaining to do after the central bank's monetary messages whipsawed financial markets over the ...
  • 10:07 AM » The Fed Should Consider Lowering Rates
    Published Mon, Jan 28 2019 10:07 AM by Bloomberg
    The Fed Should Consider Lowering Rates    Bloomberg Nobody is expecting any major news from this week's policy-making meeting at the Federal Reserve. That's unfortunate, because the Fed should be considering ...
  • 9:24 AM » Chicago Fed "Index Points to a Slight Increase in Economic Growth in December"
    Published Mon, Jan 28 2019 9:24 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Chicago Fed: Index Points to a Slight Increase in Economic Growth in December Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) moved up slightly to +0.27 in December from +0.21 in November. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from November, and two of the four categories made positive contributions to the index in December. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, edged up to +0.16 in December from +0.12 in November. emphasis added This graph shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (three month moving average) since 1967. Click on graph for larger image. This suggests economic activity was slightly above the historical trend in December (using the three-month average). According to the Chicago Fed: The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories. ... A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:19 AM » U.S. government reopens with clock running on funding talks
    Published Mon, Jan 28 2019 8:19 AM by Reuters
    The U.S. government reopened on Monday with about 800,000 federal workers returning after a 35-day shutdown as lawmakers geared up for talks to avoid another standoff before funding runs out again in three weeks.
  • 8:03 AM » Slowing Home Searches, Delayed Closings: How the Government Shutdown Impacted Homebuyers in Washington, D.C.
    Published Mon, Jan 28 2019 8:03 AM by www.redfin.com
    The prospect of making a down payment and securing a mortgage became even more difficult for federal employees who have gone without a paycheck for the last five weeks and remain in financial limbo with the temporary reopening of the government. Roughly 800,000 federal workers around the country were either furloughed or working without pay […] The post Slowing Home Searches, Delayed Closings: How the Government Shutdown Impacted Homebuyers in Washington, D.C. appeared first on Redfin Real-Time .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.redfin.com
  • 8:02 AM » Bond Traders Face Plenty of Risk as Powell Ushers In a New Era
    Published Mon, Jan 28 2019 8:02 AM by Bloomberg
    Bond Traders Face Plenty of Risk as Powell Ushers In a New Era    Bloomberg Treasury traders are bracing for heightened volatility next week as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell ushers in a new era of press conferences after ...
  • Fri, Jan 25 2019
  • 5:19 PM » SEC Emergency Action Charges Texas Real Estate Developer for Multi-Million Dollar Offering Fraud
    Published Fri, Jan 25 2019 5:19 PM by SEC
    The Securities and Exchange Commission announced today that it filed charges against Texas resident and real estate developer Phillip Michael Carter, two other individuals, and several related entities for conducting a multi-million dollar offering fraud. The SEC's complaint alleges that Carter, along with Bobby Eugene Guess and Richard Tilford, raised almost $45 million from over 270 investors across the United States by selling short-term, high-yield promissory notes issued by a number of shell companies intentionally named to confuse investors. The complaint alleges that Carter, Guess, and Tilford claimed to offer investments in Carter's legitimate real estate development companies, which were purportedly backed by hard assets from actual real estate development projects. Instead, the complaint alleges, the individual defendants sold securities issued by unrelated, but closely-named, entities that had no assets. Carter then misappropriated investor funds to pay $1.2 million towards a personal IRS tax lien, operate a luxury hunting ranch, fund his lifestyle, and make over $3 million in Ponzi payments to investors. "Phillip Carter and his co-defendants lied about the nature of their investments and enriched themselves at their investors' expense," said Shamoil T. Shipchandler, Director of the SEC's Fort Worth Regional Office, whose last day at the Commission is today. The complaint, filed in federal court in Dallas, charges the defendants with violating the anti-fraud provisions of the Securities Act and Exchange Act, participating in the unregistered offer and sale of securities, and functioning as unlicensed brokers, and seeks permanent injunctions, conduct-based injunctions, disgorgement with prejudgment interest, and civil penalties. The complaint also charges four entities as relief defendants, seeking disgorgement and prejudgment interest. Finally, the SEC's complaint seeks an asset freeze, accounting, and document preservation order...
  • 5:19 PM » White House will accept compromise with less than $5.7 billion for wall: official
    Published Fri, Jan 25 2019 5:19 PM by Reuters
    The White House would accept a final compromise deal to keep the U.S. government open as long as it includes funding for a border wall, even if it is less than the $5.7 billion that President Donald Trump has requested, an administration official said on Friday.
  • 5:18 PM » Stocks, yields rise after deal announced to end U.S. government shutdown
    Published Fri, Jan 25 2019 5:18 PM by Reuters
    Wall Street indexes rose and bond yields followed stocks higher on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump announced an agreement to end the longest ever U.S. government shutdown and as investors reacted to corporate earnings reports.
  • 5:18 PM » California Sues Huntington Beach for Snubbing Affordable Housing
    Published Fri, Jan 25 2019 5:18 PM by Bloomberg
    California Sues Huntington Beach for Snubbing Affordable Housing    Bloomberg California's leaders sued the seaside city of Huntington Beach over claims that it worsened the state's housing shortage by refusing to cooperate with a plan for ...
  • 3:34 PM » Stocks, bond yields up; deal to end shutdown announced
    Published Fri, Jan 25 2019 3:34 PM by Reuters
    Wall Street indexes rallied and bond yields followed stocks higher on Friday as investors reacted to corporate earnings reports and U.S. President Donald Trump announced an agreement to end the longest ever U.S. government shutdown.
  • 2:43 PM » Trump announces deal with lawmakers to end government shutdown
    Published Fri, Jan 25 2019 2:43 PM by CNBC
    WASHINGTON, Jan 25- President Donald Trump said on Friday he has reached a tentative agreement with U.S. lawmakers for three weeks in stop-gap funding that would end a partial U.S. government shutdown now in its 35th day, with a senior Democratic aide saying money the president demanded for a border wall is not included. The president had previously insisted on...
  • 1:48 PM » 91 percent of San Francisco area residents think their cost of living is 'somewhat' or 'very' high
    Published Fri, Jan 25 2019 1:48 PM by CNBC
    The median home value in San Francisco is $1.3 million, according to real-estate website Zillow, and the median rent is close to $4,500. For that and other cost-of-living reasons, residents overwhelmingly say the cost of living is high.
  • 12:39 PM » Jobless Claims at Five-Decade Low Exclude U.S. Shutdown Workers
    Published Fri, Jan 25 2019 12:39 PM by Bloomberg
    Jobless Claims at Five-Decade Low Exclude U.S. Shutdown Workers    Bloomberg If you're trying to figure out why filings for unemployment benefits are so low amid a government shutdown, don't look to the headline data.
  • 11:44 AM » As government shutdown drags on, shares of subprime lenders rally
    Published Fri, Jan 25 2019 11:44 AM by Reuters
    Payday lenders' stocks have emerged as big winners during the record-long U.S. government shutdown, though the updraft could prove short-lived.
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