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  • Thu, Sep 26 2019
  • 8:43 AM » U.S. weekly jobless claims rise marginally
    Published Thu, Sep 26 2019 8:43 AM by Reuters
    The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits rose moderately last week, pointing to sustained labor market strength.
  • 8:43 AM » Q2 GDP Third Estimate: 2.0% Annual Rate
    Published Thu, Sep 26 2019 8:43 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2019 (Second Estimate); Corporate Profits, Second Quarter 2019 (Preliminary Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the second quarter of 2019 , according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was also 2.0 percent. Downward revisions to personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and nonresidential fixed investment were primarily offset by upward revisions to state and local government spending and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised down emphasis added PCE growth was revised down from 4.7% to 4.6%. Residential investment was revised down from -2.9% to -3.0%. This was at the consensus forecast. Here is a Comparison of Third and Second Estimates .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:36 AM » US business investment much weaker in the second quarter than previously estimated
    Published Thu, Sep 26 2019 8:36 AM by CNBC
    U.S. business investment contracted more sharply that previously estimated in the second quarter and corporate profit growth was tepid.
  • 8:03 AM » Fed Bows to Market Demand for Repo by Boosting Size of Actions
    Published Thu, Sep 26 2019 8:03 AM by Bloomberg
    Fed Bows to Market Demand for Repo by Boosting Size of Actions    Bloomberg
  • 8:02 AM » Together, Homebuyers Who Bought at the Bottom of the Market in 2012 Have Earned $203 Billion in Equity
    Published Thu, Sep 26 2019 8:02 AM by www.redfin.com
    The typical U.S. homebuyer who purchased a home in 2012 has earned $141,000 in home equity--and it's much higher in some areas. The post Together, Homebuyers Who Bought at the Bottom of the Market in 2012 Have Earned $203 Billion in Equity appeared first on Redfin Blog .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.redfin.com
  • 8:02 AM » Fed Should Buy $250 Billion in Treasuries, Ex Officials Suggest
    Published Thu, Sep 26 2019 8:02 AM by Bloomberg
    Fed Should Buy $250 Billion in Treasuries, Ex Officials Suggest    Bloomberg
  • Wed, Sep 25 2019
  • 4:48 PM » Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Slower YoY Price Gains in August compared to July
    Published Wed, Sep 25 2019 4:48 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The Case-Shiller house price indexes for July were released yesterday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close. From Matthew Speakman at Zillow: July Case-Shiller Results and August Forecast: Summer Turning Point? Annual home price growth continued to cool in July, but more-recent data suggest the market may have begun to turn over the summer, showing modest acceleration in growth compared to earlier in the year. The latest home sales and building data offer further proof that the recent bout of housing malaise may be nearing an end. August existing home sales, starts and permits all easily exceeded industry expectations and posted some of their strongest readings in years. This strength, teamed with steady home builder sentiment, growing home construction employment and still-low mortgage rates, show the housing market still has plenty of fight as summer turns to fall. The Zillow forecast is for the year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National index to be at 3.2% in August, unchanged from 3.2% in July. The Zillow forecast is for the 20-City index to decline to 1.8% YoY in August from 2.0% in July, and for the 10-City index to decline to 1.3% YoY compared to 1.6% YoY in July.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 3:17 PM » The Fed will be growing its balance sheet again, but don't call it 'QE4'
    Published Wed, Sep 25 2019 3:17 PM by CNBC
    The Federal Reserve will be conducting operations that look and sound a lot like what it did to pull the economy out of the financial crisis. However, the process this time around will be different in the details.
  • 3:16 PM » CFPB Issues HMDA Guides
    Published Wed, Sep 25 2019 3:16 PM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    The CFPB recently issued the 2020 Filing Instructions Guide for Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data. The Guide applies to HMDA data collected in calendar year 2020 that must be reported to the government in 2021. The CFPB also issued for the first time a Supplemental Guide for Quarterly Filers. As the title suggests, the Supplemental... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 1:29 PM » As new home sales soar, analyst says entry-level price is 'redefined' higher
    Published Wed, Sep 25 2019 1:29 PM by CNBC
    Sales of newly built homes in August hit the second highest level in over a decade. Those numbers were released just after a homebuilding analyst upgraded Toll Brothers, Lennar and KB Home to "outperform."
  • 11:33 AM » Evans: Larger balance sheet may avoid future repo market problems
    Published Wed, Sep 25 2019 11:33 AM by Reuters
    Chicago Federal Reserve bank president Charles Evans said on Wednesday that the Fed may be able to avoid future repo market problems simply by increasing its balance sheet rather than setting up new market tools.
  • 10:05 AM » Former Fed Official Kocherlakota Signals Concern for Repo Market
    Published Wed, Sep 25 2019 10:05 AM by Bloomberg
    Former Fed Official Kocherlakota Signals Concern for Repo Market    Bloomberg Former Federal Reserve policy maker Narayana Kocherlakota says that while the recent disruptions in U.S. money markets won't undermine the central bank's ...
  • 9:20 AM » Westpac sees the Fed cutting rates in October
    Published Wed, Sep 25 2019 9:20 AM by CNBC
    Westpac sees the Fed cutting rates in October
  • 8:02 AM » U.S. States Won't Join Century Bond Club Even If They Want To
    Published Wed, Sep 25 2019 8:02 AM by Bloomberg
    U.S. States Won't Join Century Bond Club Even If They Want To    Bloomberg The U.S. Treasury is considering whether to join a number of European governments that have embarked on a bond-market experiment by selling debt that ...
  • Tue, Sep 24 2019
  • 3:33 PM » Pelosi to announce impeachment inquiry on Tuesday: Washington Post
    Published Tue, Sep 24 2019 3:33 PM by Reuters
    U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will announce later on Tuesday that the House is launching a formal inquiry into the impeachment of President Donald Trump, the Washington Post reported.
  • 11:16 AM » Dealers Rush to N.Y. Fed Repo Operations as Quarter-End Nears
    Published Tue, Sep 24 2019 11:16 AM by Bloomberg
    Dealers Rush to N.Y. Fed Repo Operations as Quarter-End Nears    Bloomberg Primary dealers flocked to the Federal Reserve's repo operations on Tuesday, signaling a need for cash to satisfy liquidity demands heading into the end of the ...
  • 10:41 AM » Richmond Fed: "Manufacturing Activity Softened in September"
    Published Tue, Sep 24 2019 10:41 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Richmond Fed: Manufacturing Activity Softened in September Fifth District manufacturing activity softened in September, according to the most recent survey from the Richmond Fed. The composite index dropped from 1 in August to -9 in September , as both shipments and new orders fell. However, the third component, employment, rose. Firms also reported a drop in backlog of orders and weakening local business conditions but were optimistic that conditions would improve in the coming months. Survey results indicated wage growth and a slight increase in employment in the manufacturing sector in September . However, firms struggled to find workers with the necessary skills, and the indicator for the average workweek hit a nine-year-low . emphasis added This was another weak report.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:08 AM » Bond Sell-Off Is Coming Back, Says $1.6 Trillion Fund Manager
    Published Tue, Sep 24 2019 8:08 AM by Bloomberg
    Bond Sell-Off Is Coming Back, Says $1.6 Trillion Fund Manager    Bloomberg Europe's biggest fund manager says now's not the time to dip toes back into global bonds, which have stabilized since their sudden slump earlier this month.
  • 8:08 AM » Fed Takes Stock of Battered Money Markets as Uneasy Calm Returns
    Published Tue, Sep 24 2019 8:08 AM by Bloomberg
    Fed Takes Stock of Battered Money Markets as Uneasy Calm Returns    Bloomberg U.S. money-market interest rates, which stabilized late last week following a spike to record levels, held steady on Monday, while a daily Federal Reserve ...
  • Mon, Sep 23 2019
  • 5:56 PM » HOA Nightmares: The Top Homeowners Association Complaints
    Published Mon, Sep 23 2019 5:56 PM by www.realtor.com
    Homeowners associations are great at getting a neighbor to mow his lawn. But they can also be a costly source of frustration. The post HOA Nightmares: The Top Homeowners Association Complaints appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 5:56 PM » NAHB: "55+ Housing Market Remains Solid in Second Quarter"
    Published Mon, Sep 23 2019 5:56 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    This was released last month. This index is similar to the overall NAHB housing market index (HMI), but only released quarterly. The NAHB started this index in Q4 2008 (during the housing bust), so the readings were initially very low. From the NAHB: 55+ Housing Market Remains Solid in Second Quarter Builder confidence in the single-family 55+ housing market remained solid in the second quarter with a reading of 71 , edging down one point from the previous quarter due to softness in traffic of prospective buyers, according to the National Association of Home Builders' (NAHB) 55+ Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. ... "Although the single-family HMI fell slightly, builder sentiment still remains strong for this segment of the market," said Karen Schroeder, chair of NAHB's 55+ Housing Industry Council and vice president of Mayberry Homes in East Lansing, Mich. "In fact, the reading of 71 is just one point off from the all-time high of 72 from the previous quarter. We expect the 55+ housing market to continue on a positive path moving forward." For the three index components of the 55+ single-family HMI, present sales remained even at 76, expected sales for the next six months increased one point to 78 and traffic of prospective buyers fell five points to 56. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the NAHB 55+ Single Family HMI through Q2 2019.  Any reading above 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than as  poor.  The index decreased to 71 in Q2 down from a record high 72 in Q1. There are two key drivers in addition to the improved economy: 1) there is a large cohort that recently moved into the 55+ group, and 2) the homeownership rate typically increases for people in the 55 to 70 year old age group. So demographics are favorable for the 55+ market.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 3:32 PM » Real Estate's Market Value Shows Minimal Growth in Q2 2019
    Published Mon, Sep 23 2019 3:32 PM by eyeonhousing.org
    The recently released Federal Reserve's Z.1 Financial Accounts of the United States report (formerly known as the Flow of Funds report) shows the latest transactions in households' balance sheets as they occurred in the second quarter of 2019. The growth in the market values of homes in the U.S. grew less proportionately to the growth in mortgages taken on them... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 1:31 PM » Fed's Bullard: U.S. policy now 'considerably' looser, but markets may demand more
    Published Mon, Sep 23 2019 1:31 PM by Reuters
    The Federal Reserve's policy shift since last year has made monetary policy "considerably more accommodative" than a year ago, but world markets are likely expecting more to come, St. Louis Federal Reserve bank president James Bullard said on Monday.
  • 12:09 PM » More Americans are house-rich, but they're leaving that cash in the house
    Published Mon, Sep 23 2019 12:09 PM by CNBC
    Rising home prices, coupled with conservative borrowing, have today's homeowners sitting on a record amount of potential cash. Today's mortgage holders saw their home equity increase by 4.8% annually by the end of the second quarter.
  • 12:09 PM » Black Knight's First Look: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in August, Foreclosure Inventory Lowest Since 2005
    Published Mon, Sep 23 2019 12:09 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From Black Knight: Black Knight's First Look: Foreclosure Starts Hit 18-year Low in August; Mortgage Prepayments Continue to Rise in Lower Interest Rate Environment • August's 36,200 foreclosure starts made for the lowest single-month total since December 2000 • The number of loans in active foreclosure inventory also fell; at 253,000, it's the fewest since 2005 • Prepayment activity - typically a good indicator of refinance activity - continues to press upward, increasing 5% from July to reach a three-year high • August's prepayment rate was up 62% from the same time last year and 2.5 times the 18-year low hit in January • Given a 30-45 day closing window, the month's prepayment activity reflects June/July interest rates; as rates fell further in August and September, the peak in refinance-driven prepayments is likely still to come According to Black Knight's First Look report for August, the percent of loans delinquent decreased slightly in August compared to July, and decreased 1.5% year-over-year. The percent of loans in the foreclosure process decreased 2.4% in August and were down 11.5% over the last year. Black Knight reported the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) was 3.45% in August down from 3.46% in July. The percent of loans in the foreclosure process decreased in August to 0.48% from 0.49% in July. Black Knight: Percent Loans Delinquent and in Foreclosure Process   Aug 2019 Jul 2019 Aug 2018 Aug 2017 Delinquent 3.45% 3.46% 3.52% 3.93% In Foreclosure 0.48% 0.49% 0.54% 0.76% Number of properties: Number of properties that are delinquent, but not in foreclosure: 1,813,000 1,807,000 1,818,000 2,003,000 Number of properties in foreclosure pre-sale inventory: 253,000 258,000 280,000 385,000 Total Properties Delinquent or in foreclosure 2,066,000 2,065,000 2,099,000 2,388,000
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:04 AM » Fed's Williams Says Repo Turmoil Raises Questions on Reserves
    Published Mon, Sep 23 2019 11:04 AM by Bloomberg
    Fed's Williams Says Repo Turmoil Raises Questions on Reserves    Bloomberg Last week's turmoil in money markets raises questions about the appropriate level of bank reserves in the financial system, Federal Reserve Bank of New York ...
  • 9:59 AM » US manufacturing sector activity hits 5-month high in September, IHS Markit says
    Published Mon, Sep 23 2019 9:59 AM by CNBC
    US manufacturing sector activity hits 5-month high in September, IHS Markit says<br/>https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/23/us-manufacturing-sector-activity-hits-5-month-high-in-september-ihs-markit-says.html
  • 9:20 AM » Chicago Fed "Index Points to a Pickup in Economic Growth in August"
    Published Mon, Sep 23 2019 9:20 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Chicago Fed: Index Points to a Pickup in Economic Growth in August Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.10 in August from -0.41 in July. All four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from July, but three of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in August. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, edged up to -0.06 in August from -0.14 in July. emphasis added This graph shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (three month moving average) since 1967. Click on graph for larger image. This suggests economic activity was slightly below the historical trend in August (using the three-month average). According to the Chicago Fed: The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories. ... A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:33 AM » Home Insurance is a Challenge in California's Wildfire-Prone Areas
    Published Mon, Sep 23 2019 8:33 AM by www.builderonline.com
    Home Insurance is a Challenge in California's Wildfire-Prone Areas
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.builderonline.com
  • 8:04 AM » How to know if it's time to buy a home
    Published Mon, Sep 23 2019 8:04 AM by CNBC
    Close to two-thirds of Americans own a home. Should you be among them? Here is how to know.
  • Fri, Sep 20 2019
  • 5:30 PM » Clarida Says Fed Policy Will Take Account of Downside Risks - Bloomberg
    Published Fri, Sep 20 2019 5:30 PM by Bloomberg
    Clarida Says Fed Policy Will Take Account of Downside Risks    Bloomberg The Federal Reserve will take account of the ongoing risks to the favorable outlook for the U.S. economy in deciding the stance of monetary policy in the coming ...
  • 5:30 PM » Fed in three voices: recession, bubbles, and 'in a good place'
    Published Fri, Sep 20 2019 5:30 PM by Reuters
    After delivering a split-decision rate cut earlier this week, U.S. Federal Reserve officials put their divisions on full display Friday, with warnings of a slowdown on the one hand and financial risks on the other bookending talk of how well things are going.
  • 5:30 PM » Fed Tackles End-of-Quarter Funding Angst by Extending Repo Plan - Bloomberg
    Published Fri, Sep 20 2019 5:30 PM by Bloomberg
    Fed Tackles End-of-Quarter Funding Angst by Extending Repo Plan    Bloomberg The Federal Reserve announced a series of overnight and term operations for the next three weeks, signaling that it has control over this vital corner of the ...
  • 5:29 PM » Mortgage Equity Withdrawal Positive in Q2
    Published Fri, Sep 20 2019 5:29 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Note: This is not Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) data from the Fed. The last MEW data from Fed economist Dr. Kennedy was for Q4 2008. The following data is calculated from the Fed's Flow of Funds data (released last week) and the BEA supplement data on single family structure investment. This is an aggregate number, and is a combination of homeowners extracting equity - hence the name "MEW" - and normal principal payments and debt cancellation (modifications, short sales, and foreclosures). For Q2 2019, the Net Equity Extraction was $23 billion , or a 0.6% of Disposable Personal Income (DPI) . Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the net equity extraction, or mortgage equity withdrawal (MEW), results, using the Flow of Funds (and BEA data) compared to the Kennedy-Greenspan method. Note: This data is impacted by debt cancellation and foreclosures, but much less than a few years ago. MEW has been mostly positive for the last four years. With a slower rate of debt cancellation, MEW will likely be mostly positive going forward - but nothing like during the housing bubble. The Fed's Flow of Funds report showed that the amount of mortgage debt outstanding increased by $76 billion in Q2. For reference: Dr. James Kennedy also has a simple method for calculating equity extraction: " A Simple Method for Estimating Gross Equity Extracted from Housing Wealth ". Here is a companion spread sheet (the above uses my simple method). For those interested in the last Kennedy data included in the graph, the spreadsheet from the Fed is available here .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 3:01 PM » Two U.S. Swing States Lost the Most Factory Jobs in Past Year
    Published Fri, Sep 20 2019 3:01 PM by Bloomberg
    Two U.S. Swing States Lost the Most Factory Jobs in Past Year    Bloomberg As the U.S. presidential campaign heats up, Democratic candidates may want to look at two Rust Belt states that narrowly helped deliver Donald Trump's victory ...
  • 1:43 PM » Chinese trade negotiators cancel US farm visit, cut trip short
    Published Fri, Sep 20 2019 1:43 PM by CNBC
    Chinese trade negotiators had a sudden change of plans, cancelling a visit to meet U.S. farmers in Montana after they wrapped trade talks in Washington this week.
  • 1:11 PM » Fed's Rosengren: Will worry when consumers show worry
    Published Fri, Sep 20 2019 1:11 PM by Reuters
    Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren on Friday said he might temper his opposition to interest rate cuts if he starts to see weakness in consumer spending.
  • 12:39 PM » U.S. lifts tariffs on 400 Chinese products, Trump cites trade progress
    Published Fri, Sep 20 2019 12:39 PM by Reuters
    U.S. President Donald Trump said his administration was "making a lot of progress" with China on Friday, as deputy-level trade talks continued for a second day and Washington lifted tariffs on over 400 Chinese products.
  • 11:31 AM » Q3 GDP Forecasts: Around 2.0%
    Published Fri, Sep 20 2019 11:31 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From Merrill Lynch: We expect 2Q GDP to be revised slightly higher to 2.1% qoq saar in the final release. 3Q GDP tracking remains at 2.0% qoq saar . [Sept 20 estimate] emphasis added From Goldman Sachs: e left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged on a rounded basis at +2.2% (qoq ar) . [Sept 19 estimate] From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.2% for 2019:Q3 and 2.0% for 2019:Q4. [Sept 20 estimate]. And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2019 is 1.9 percent September 18, up from 1.8 percent on September 13. [Sept 18 estimate] CR Note: The GDP estimates increased this week mostly due to better than expected housing starts and industrial production numbers. These estimates suggest real GDP growth will be around 2.0% annualized in Q3.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:45 AM » BLS: August Unemployment rates at New Series Lows in Alabama, Alaska, Illinois, Maine and New Jersey
    Published Fri, Sep 20 2019 10:45 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary Unemployment rates were lower in August in 5 states, higher in 3 states, and stable in 42 states and the District of Columbia, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Five states had jobless rate decreases from a year earlier, 2 states had increases, and 43 states and the District had little or no change. ... Vermont had the lowest unemployment rate in August, 2.1 percent. The rates in Alabama (3.1 percent), Alaska (6.2 percent), Illinois (4.0 percent), Maine (2.9 percent), and New Jersey (3.2 percent) set new series lows . (All state series begin in 1976.) Alaska had the highest jobless rate, 6.2 percent. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the number of states (and D.C.) with unemployment rates at or above certain levels since January 1976. At the worst of the great recession, there were 11 states with an unemployment rate at or above 11% (red). Currently only one state, Alaska, has an unemployment rate at or above 6% (dark blue).  Note that Alaska set a new series low (since 1976).  Three states and the D.C. have unemployment rates above 5%; Alaska, Arizona and Mississippi. A total of eleven states are at a series low: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Illinois, Maine, New Jersey, Oregon, South Carolina, Texas and Vermont.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
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