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  • Tue, Nov 5 2019
  • 4:36 PM » Interest rates suddenly entered a new phase and they are moving higher thanks to possible trade deal
    Published Tue, Nov 05 2019 4:36 PM by CNBC
    As a possible trade deal gets closer, interest rates are moving into a new phase - and that is higher.
  • 2:08 PM » Construction Job Openings Continue Year-over-Year Gains
    Published Tue, Nov 05 2019 2:08 PM by eyeonhousing.org
    Data from the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) indicate that construction job openings increased in September on a year-over-year basis. The estimated number of job openings declined from the August total to 338,000 in September, after reaching a post-Great Recession high of 434,000 in April. The September 2019 count of unfilled jobs represents a year-over-year gain relative to... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 11:57 AM » Ray Dalio says the US will have no other option but to raise taxes in coming years
    Published Tue, Nov 05 2019 11:57 AM by CNBC
    Dalio says that the U.S. will have little choice but to raise taxes in the coming years to offset its mounting liabilities and debts.
  • 10:45 AM » U.S. Trade With China Tumbled in September After Fresh Tariffs
    Published Tue, Nov 05 2019 10:45 AM by Bloomberg
    U.S. Trade With China Tumbled in September After Fresh Tariffs    Bloomberg
  • 10:32 AM » BLS: Job Openings "Edged down" to 7.0 Million in September
    Published Tue, Nov 05 2019 10:32 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Notes: In September there were 7.024 million job openings, and, according to the September Employment report, there were 5.769 million unemployed. So, for the nineteenth consecutive month, there were more job openings than people unemployed. Also note that the number of job openings has exceeded the number of hires since January 2015 (almost 5 years). From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings edged down to 7.0 million (-277,000) on the last business day of September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and separations were little changed at 5.9 million and 5.8 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate and the layoffs and discharges rate were little changed at 2.3 percent and 1.3 percent, respectively. ... The number of quits was little changed in September at 3.5 million as was the rate at 2.3 percent . The quits level was little changed for total private and for government. emphasis added The following graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS. This series started in December 2000. Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for September, the most recent employment report was for October. Click on graph for larger image. Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover.  When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. Jobs openings decreased in September to 7.024 million from 7.301 million in August. The number of job openings (yellow) are down 5% year-over-year. Quits are up 3% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (see light blue columns...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:09 AM » High-tech housing matchmaker HomeLight announces $109 million in new funding
    Published Tue, Nov 05 2019 10:09 AM by CNBC
    HomeLight launched in 2012 as a real estate matchmaker, using proprietary algorithms to connect buyers and sellers with the best possible agents for their needs.
  • 10:06 AM » October ISM non-manufacturing index comes in at 54.7, vs 53.5 estimate
    Published Tue, Nov 05 2019 10:06 AM by CNBC
    October ISM non-manufacturing index comes in at 54.7, vs 53.5 estimate<br/>https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/05/october-ism-non-manufacturing-index-comes-in-at-54point7-vs-53point5-estimate.html
  • 9:44 AM » US international trade deficit narrows to $52.45B in September, vs $52.20B estimate
    Published Tue, Nov 05 2019 9:44 AM by CNBC
    The U.S. international trade deficit was forecast to narrow to $52.20 billion in September from the $54.90 billion reported a month earlier, according to economists polled by Dow Jones.
  • 9:10 AM » CoreLogic: House Prices up 3.5% Year-over-year in September
    Published Tue, Nov 05 2019 9:10 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for September . The recent Case-Shiller index release was for August. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). From CoreLogic: CoreLogic Reports September Home Prices Increased by 3.5% Year Over Year CoreLogic® ... today released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for September 2019, which shows home prices rose both year over year and month over month. Home prices increased nationally by 3.5% from September 2018. On a month-over-month basis, prices increased by 0.4% in September 2019. Home prices continue to increase on an annual basis with the CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicating annual price growth will increase 5.6% by September 2020. On a month-over-month basis, the forecast calls for home prices to increase by 0.3% from September 2019 to October 2019. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices calculated using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state. "Mortgage rates were a full percentage point lower this September compared to a year ago, boosting affordability for first-time buyers and supporting a rise in homeownership," said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic. "In addition to lower interest rates, personal income grew faster than home prices during the past year. This provided an additional lift for first-time buyer affordability and helped to boost the homeownership rate to the highest level in more than five years." emphasis added This graph is from CoreLogic and shows the YoY change in their index. CR Note: The YoY change in the CoreLogic index decreased over the last year, but is now moving sideways.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:49 AM » The Reasons Behind High Housing Prices in Boston
    Published Tue, Nov 05 2019 8:49 AM by www.builderonline.com
    The Reasons Behind High Housing Prices in Boston
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.builderonline.com
  • 8:38 AM » Chinese President Xi says need to bring down trade barriers
    Published Tue, Nov 05 2019 8:38 AM by Reuters
    Chinese President Xi says need to bring down trade barriers
  • 8:26 AM » Fed's Barkin: Conflicting signals make U.S. economy hard to read
    Published Tue, Nov 05 2019 8:26 AM by Reuters
    Conflicting signals make it difficult to get a handle on the true health of the U.S. economy and reducing uncertainty for businesses would provide a shot in the arm to growth, Richmond Fed Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin said on Tuesday.
  • 8:04 AM » EU official Barnier says 'no one' has explained the benefit of Brexit — 'not even Nigel Farage'
    Published Tue, Nov 05 2019 8:04 AM by CNBC
    Europe's top Brexit negotiator says "no one has ever managed to explain to me the added value of Brexit ... not even Nigel Farage."
  • 8:03 AM » $11 Trillion U.S. Mortgage Market Has a Shadowy New Player
    Published Tue, Nov 05 2019 8:03 AM by Bloomberg
    $11 Trillion U.S. Mortgage Market Has a Shadowy New Player    Bloomberg
  • Mon, Nov 4 2019
  • 3:37 PM » Wall St. extends recent gains on trade deal optimism
    Published Mon, Nov 04 2019 3:37 PM by Reuters
    U.S. stocks rose on Monday, hitting record highs again on hopes of a U.S.-China trade deal and an improving domestic economy.
  • 2:17 PM » Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Similar YoY Price Gains in September compared to August
    Published Mon, Nov 04 2019 2:17 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The Case-Shiller house price indexes for August were released last week. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close. From Matthew Speakman at Zillow: August Case-Shiller Results and September Forecast: Stabilizing, not Swooning The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index® rose 3.2% year-over-year in August (non-seasonally adjusted), up from 3.1% in July. Annual growth in the smaller 10-city index was slightly slower than July, and was unchanged in the 20-city index. September data as reported by Case-Shiller are expected to show continued modest deceleration in annual growth in the 10-city and U.S. National indices, while growth in the 20-city index is expected to remain the same. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the September S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, Nov. 26. The Zillow forecast is for the year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National index to be at 3.1% in September, down from 3.2% in August. The Zillow forecast is for the 20-City index to be unchanged at 2.0% YoY in September from 2.0% in August, and for the 10-City index to decline to 1.4% YoY compared to 1.5% YoY in August.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:33 PM » Fed's Powell to testify on economy on November 13
    Published Mon, Nov 04 2019 1:33 PM by Reuters
    Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will testify on the economy before Congress on November 13, the congressional Joint Economic Committee said on Monday.
  • 1:32 PM » Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for September: "Early-Stage Delinquencies Continue to Rise Among Purchase Loans"
    Published Mon, Nov 04 2019 1:32 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    CR Note: Early-stage delinquencies are still historically very low, but have been increasing (see second graph). Black Knight released their Mortgage Monitor report for September today. According to Black Knight, 3.53% of mortgages were delinquent in September, down from 3.97% in September 2018. Black Knight also reported that 0.48% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down from 0.52% a year ago. This gives a total of 4.05% delinquent or in foreclosure. Press Release: Black Knight's September 2019 Mortgage Monitor: First-Time Homebuyers Under Pressure as Early-Stage Delinquencies Continue to Rise Among Purchase Loans Today, the Data & Analytics division of Black Knight, Inc. released its latest Mortgage Monitor Report, based upon the company's industry-leading mortgage performance, housing and public records datasets. This month, Black Knight looked at the current trend of rising early-stage delinquencies, particularly among purchase loans. As Black Knight Data & Analytics President Ben Graboske explained, the number of loans that were delinquent six months following origination has been increasing over the past 24 months, with first-time homebuyers being impacted most heavily. "We've seen early-stage delinquencies rise over the last several years, with the increase being driven primarily by purchase loans," said Graboske. "About 1% of loans originated in Q1 2019 were delinquent six months after origination. While that's less than one-third of the 2000-2005 average of 2.95%, it represents a more than 60% increase over the last two years and is the highest it's been since late 2010. Early-stage GSE delinquencies currently stand at 0.6%, up two tenths of a percentage point over the past 24 months, but still 40% below the market average and 60% below their own 2000-2005 average of 1.3%. Though there has been some softening in GSE purchase loan performance, it hasn't been to the extent seen among entry-level...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:32 PM » Getting Down-Payment Assistance May Not Make People More Likely to Default on Their Mortgages, After All
    Published Mon, Nov 04 2019 1:32 PM by www.realtor.com
    Down-payment assistance from government programs is especially important for minority borrowers. The post Getting Down-Payment Assistance May Not Make People More Likely to Default on Their Mortgages, After All appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 11:03 AM » New vs. Used in Housing
    Published Mon, Nov 04 2019 11:03 AM by www.builderonline.com
    New vs. Used in Housing
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.builderonline.com
  • 10:39 AM » Nearly half of millennials feel stressed about this after buying a home
    Published Mon, Nov 04 2019 10:39 AM by CNBC
    With home prices on the rise, a majority of millennials feel worried about future expenses after buying a home. And 73% of U.S. homeowners overall report feeling "house rich, cash" poor at times.
  • 9:40 AM » Modular and Other Non-Site Built Housing In 2018
    Published Mon, Nov 04 2019 9:40 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    The total market share of non-site built single-family homes was 3% of single-family completions in 2018, according to Census Bureau Survey of Construction data and NAHB analysis. This share is expected to rise moderately in 2019 and in the years ahead, due to the ongoing labor shortage in the residential construction sector and the need to lift labor productivity amid declining housing affordability.... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 9:08 AM » Fed's Kashakri calls for no more rate hikes until inflation hits 2%
    Published Mon, Nov 04 2019 9:08 AM by CNBC
    Kashkari said he wouldn't be looking to cut rates, but he added that the Fed can be patient now until there are stronger signs of wage growth and until some important economic headwinds such as the trade war and Brexit pass.
  • Fri, Nov 1 2019
  • 3:19 PM » After year-long bumpy ride, Fed appears to make soft landing
    Published Fri, Nov 01 2019 3:19 PM by Reuters
    After a year-long struggle with bond markets, the Trump administration, and each other, Federal Reserve policymakers found their way to a compromise this week with a rate cut that even the White House said had put monetary policy in a much better place.
  • 2:45 PM » Private Residential Spending Rises in September
    Published Fri, Nov 01 2019 2:45 PM by eyeonhousing.org
    NAHB analysis of Census Construction Spending data shows that total private residential construction spending stood at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of $511.4 billion in September, the highest level since December 2018. It inched up 0.6% in September, after increasing 0.8% in August and 1% in July. Private residential construction spending rebounded in the third quarter after decreasing for... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 2:00 PM » China says it's reached a consensus in principle with the US during this week's trade talks
    Published Fri, Nov 01 2019 2:00 PM by CNBC
    China says it's reached a consensus in principle with the US during this week's trade talks<br/>https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/01/china-says-its-reached-a-consensus-in-principle-with-the-us-during-this-weeks-trade-talks.html
  • 1:40 PM » Fed's Kaplan says he supported rate cut only if Fed signaled nothing further
    Published Fri, Nov 01 2019 1:40 PM by Reuters
    Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan said on Friday he went along with the U.S. central bank's rate cut this week contingent on the Fed signaling that no further decreases to borrowing costs were likely, barring a material change in the economic outlook.
  • 1:19 PM » Clarida says U.S. economy, Fed policy 'in a good place'
    Published Fri, Nov 01 2019 1:19 PM by Reuters
    The Federal Reserve's three interest rate cuts this year have provided "significant support" for the U.S. economy whose full effects are yet to be felt, Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida said on Friday, elaborating on the case for why the central bank is likely to remain on hold for now.
  • 12:11 PM » China may impose $3.58 billion in annual trade sanctions on U.S.: WTO panel
    Published Fri, Nov 01 2019 12:11 PM by Reuters
    A World Trade Organization (WTO) panel said on Friday that China could slap compensatory sanctions on U.S. imports worth $3.579 billion annually for the U.S. failure to remove anti-dumping duties, a figure that was roughly half what China had sought.
  • 11:47 AM » Construction Spending Increased in October, Down 2.0% YoY
    Published Fri, Nov 01 2019 11:47 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased slightly in August: Construction spending during September 2019 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,293.6 billion, 0.5 percent above the revised August estimate of $1,287.1 billion. The September figure is 2.0 percent below the September 2018 estimate of $1,319.7 billion. emphasis added Both private and public spending increased: Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $961.7 billion, 0.2 percent above the revised August estimate of $959.9 billion. ... In September, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $331.9 billion, 1.5 percent above the revised August estimate of $327.2 billion. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted. Private residential spending had been increasing - but turned down in the 2nd half of 2018 - and is now 25% below the bubble peak. Non-residential spending is 9% above the previous peak in January 2008 (nominal dollars). Public construction spending is 2% above the previous peak in March 2009, and 27% above the austerity low in February 2014. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending. On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is down 4%. Non-residential spending is down 6% year-over-year. Public spending is up 7% year-over-year. This was above consensus expectations.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:17 AM » No talks have taken place on ousting Fed's Powell: White House adviser
    Published Fri, Nov 01 2019 11:17 AM by Reuters
    A White House official said on Friday no discussions have taken place about ousting U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell after President Donald Trump expressed disappointment in him and criticized the central bank's latest interest rate cut.
  • 11:17 AM » Fed's Kaplan says policy is appropriate, should now be patient
    Published Fri, Nov 01 2019 11:17 AM by Reuters
    Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan said on Friday the U.S. central bank now has monetary policy at a "roughly" appropriate setting and should leave interest rates where they are for the time being.
  • 10:30 AM » Fed's Clarida says the U.S. economy is in good place after rate cuts
    Published Fri, Nov 01 2019 10:30 AM by Reuters
    The three rate cuts passed by the Federal Reserve this year leave the U.S. economy better armed to withstand the risks of a global slowdown, Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida said on Friday.
  • 10:03 AM » October's ISM manufacturing index is 48.3, a worse-than-expected contraction
    Published Fri, Nov 01 2019 10:03 AM by CNBC
    The U.S. ISM manufacturing index was expected to show a contraction in activity in October, the third month in a row.
  • 9:20 AM » Phase one trade deal with China is in good shape: U.S. Commerce chief
    Published Fri, Nov 01 2019 9:20 AM by Reuters
    The initial "phase one" trade pact with China appears to be in good shape and is likely to be signed around mid-November, although a finite date is still in question, U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said on Friday.
  • 9:20 AM » Treasury yields jump after better-than-expected jobs report
    Published Fri, Nov 01 2019 9:20 AM by Reuters
    Yields on U.S. government bonds jumped on Friday morning after domestic job growth slowed less than expected in October, suggesting the Federal Reserve was justified in signaling on Wednesday that it would pause interest rate cuts going forward.
  • 8:32 AM » US added 128,000 jobs in October, vs 75,000 expected
    Published Fri, Nov 01 2019 8:32 AM by CNBC
    Economists had been expecting nonfarm payrolls to rise by 75,000 in October from an initially reported 136,000 the month before and the unemployment rate to edge up to 3.6%.
  • 8:06 AM » SNB Can't Get the Banks Off Its Back About Negative Rates
    Published Fri, Nov 01 2019 8:06 AM by Bloomberg
    SNB Can't Get the Banks Off Its Back About Negative Rates    Bloomberg
  • 8:04 AM » Trump Claims Americans 'Very Disappointed' in Powell and Fed
    Published Fri, Nov 01 2019 8:04 AM by Bloomberg
    Trump Claims Americans 'Very Disappointed' in Powell and Fed    Bloomberg
  • Thu, Oct 31 2019
  • 3:12 PM » October Employment Preview: Take the Under
    Published Thu, Oct 31 2019 3:12 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Special Notes on GM Strike and Decennial Census : The GM strike has ended, but 48,000 workers were on strike during the BLS reference week. There was probably some spillover to suppliers and others - and the strike will probably reduce October employment by close to 75,000 jobs. The strike is over, and these jobs will return in November. No worries. Over the last two months, the Census Bureau increased the number of temporary workers by 26,000. This phase of the Decennial Census was supposed to end mid-October, and it is possible that some of these workers were let go prior to the BLS reference week. If so, the headline number should be adjusted for these hires, see: How to Report the Monthly Employment Number excluding Temporary Census Hiring Given these special events, it is possible (but unlikely) that we will see a negative headline employment number for October. On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for October. The consensus is for an increase of 90,000 non-farm payroll jobs in October, and for the unemployment rate to increase to 3.6%. Last month, the BLS reported 136,000 jobs added in September (including 1,000 temporary Census hires). Here is a summary of recent data: • The ADP employment report showed an increase of 125,000 private sector payroll jobs in October. This was below consensus expectations of 139,000 private sector payroll jobs added. The ADP report hasn't been very useful in predicting the BLS report for any one month, but in general, this suggests employment growth below expectations . • The ISM Manufacturing and non-manufacturing reports have not been released for October. • Initial weekly unemployment claims averaged 215,000 in October, up from 213,000 in September. For the BLS reference week (includes the 12th of the month), initial claims were at 218,000, up from 210,000 during the reference week the previous month. This suggest a few more layoffs (during the reference week) in October than September.. • The...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
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