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  • Thu, May 9 2019
  • 8:08 AM » Vacation Communities Got Slammed in the Recession—Is It Safe to Buy There Now?
    Published Thu, May 09 2019 8:08 AM by www.realtor.com
    With the real estate market slowing nationally, should buyers be wary of second homes in vacation-home communities that were hit hard in the past recession? The post Vacation Communities Got Slammed in the Recession-Is It Safe to Buy There Now? appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 8:08 AM » Weakest U.S. Bond Auction in Decade Validates Dimon's Warning
    Published Thu, May 09 2019 8:08 AM by Bloomberg
    Weakest U.S. Bond Auction in Decade Validates Dimon's Warning    Bloomberg The U.S. Treasury on Wednesday saw the weakest demand for its benchmark 10-year note in a decade, illustrating the diminishing appetite among some ...
  • Wed, May 8 2019
  • 5:07 PM » NAHB: Builder Confidence Increased to Record High for the 55+ Housing Market in Q1
    Published Wed, May 08 2019 5:07 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    This index is similar to the overall NAHB housing market index (HMI), but only released quarterly. The NAHB started this index in Q4 2008 (during the housing bust), so the readings were initially very low. From the NAHB: 55+ Housing Market Opens First Quarter with Record High Builder confidence in the single-family 55+ housing market continued to strengthen in the first quarter of 2019 with a reading of 72, up six points from the previous quarter , according to the National Association of Home Builders' (NAHB) 55+ Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. This is the highest reading since the inception of the index in 2008. ... "Overall, demand for homes in 55+ communities remain strong as more buyers and renters in that market search for simpler living arrangements," said Karen Schroeder, chair of NAHB's 55+ Housing Industry Council and vice president of Mayberry Homes in East Lansing, Mich. "However, there are still headwinds that are impacting the market, such as rising construction costs and a lack of skilled labor." All three index components of the 55+ single-family HMI posted increases from the previous quarter: Present sales rose four points to 76, expected sales for the next six months increased seven points to 77 and traffic of prospective buyers climbed eight points to 61. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the NAHB 55+ Single Family HMI through Q1 2019.  Any reading above 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than as  poor.  The index increased to 72 in Q1 up from 66 in Q4. There are two key drivers in addition to the improved economy: 1) there is a large cohort that recently moved into the 55+ group, and 2) the homeownership rate typically increases for people in the 55 to 70 year old age group. So demographics are favorable for the 55+ market.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:58 PM » Fannie-Freddie May Be Released Without Congress, Calabria Says
    Published Wed, May 08 2019 2:58 PM by Bloomberg
    Fannie-Freddie May Be Released Without Congress, Calabria Says    Bloomberg Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's new overseer said the mortgage giants can be freed from government control even if Congress doesn't pass a housing-finance ...
  • 1:12 PM » Houston Real Estate in April: Sales up 8% YoY, Inventory Up 14%
    Published Wed, May 08 2019 1:12 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the HAR: The Luxury Market Leads the Way in Houston's April Home Sales Gains Lower mortgage interest rates, improving oil prices, steady economic growth and a more plentiful supply of housing translated to a strong month for home sales throughout greater Houston in April. Luxury homes (priced at $750,000 and above) drew the greatest volume of sales followed closely by homes in the $150,000 to $250,000 range. Housing inventory grew to its highest level since last September, keeping up with consumer demand midway through the spring buying season. According to the latest monthly report from the Houston Association of Realtors (HAR), sales of single-family homes increased 7.8 percent in April, with 7,586 homes sold compared to 7,035 in April 2018 . That marks the third straight month of positive sales and the biggest volume gain of 2019. On a year-to-date basis, home sales are 2.2 percent ahead of last year's record pace . ... April sales of all property types totaled 9,063, up 7.8 percent compared to the same month last year . Total dollar volume for the month jumped 9.6 percent to about $2.7 billion. "Consumers have been taking advantage of optimal conditions for homebuying, with low interest rates and a growing supply of properties, and that has powered Houston to a strong springtime performance," said HAR Chair Shannon Cobb Evans with Heritage Texas Properties. "The rental market also remains healthy, and we're relieved to see sales finally turning around among townhomes and condominiums." ... Total active listings, or the total number of available properties, jumped 13.8 percent to 42,086. ... emphasis added On pace for record sales in Houston.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:11 PM » Remodeling to Age-In-Place Remains Strong, Still Mostly for Older Home Owners
    Published Wed, May 08 2019 1:11 PM by eyeonhousing.org
    According to NAHB's Remodeling Market Index (RMI) survey for the 4th quarter of 2018, over three-fourths of professional remodelers undertake projects designed to allow home owners to Age-in-Place. Their customers are generally familiar with the Aging-in-Place concept, and at least somewhat receptive to it. However, in practice remodelers continue to perform Aging-in-Place work mostly for customers age 55 or older,... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 1:10 PM » 50,000 Housing Units Needed in Miami
    Published Wed, May 08 2019 1:10 PM by www.builderonline.com
    50,000 Housing Units Needed in Miami
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.builderonline.com
  • 1:10 PM » Single Family Home and Condo Sales Up in Massachusetts
    Published Wed, May 08 2019 1:10 PM by www.builderonline.com
    Single Family Home and Condo Sales Up in Massachusetts
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.builderonline.com
  • 1:09 PM » Why Markets Aren't Sweating the U.S.-China Trade War Much: The ‘Trump Put'
    Published Wed, May 08 2019 1:09 PM by www.nytimes.com
    The president has tended to back off whenever markets and the economy have looked soft.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.nytimes.com
  • 11:21 AM » Las Vegas Real Estate in April: Sales Up 2% YoY, Inventory up 101% YoY
    Published Wed, May 08 2019 11:21 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    This is a key former distressed market to follow since Las Vegas saw the largest price decline, following the housing bubble, of any of the Case-Shiller composite 20 cities. The Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported Local home prices hovering around $300,000, with more homes on the market; GLVAR housing statistics for April 2019 Local home prices are hovering around $300,000, while the number of homes on the market continues to increase. So says a report released Wednesday by the Greater Las Vegas Association of REALTORS® (GLVAR). ... The total number of existing local homes, condos and townhomes sold during April was 3,625. Compared to one year ago, April sales were down 0.2% for homes, but up 8.7% for condos and townhomes. ... At the current sales pace, Carpenter said Southern Nevada now has less than a three-month supply of homes available for sale. That's up from one year ago, but still below what would normally be considered a balanced market. By the end of April, GLVAR reported 7,435 single-family homes listed for sale without any sort of offer. T hat's up 94.8% from one year ago. For condos and townhomes, the 1,826 properties listed without offers in April represented a 131.1% jump from one year ago . ... The number of so-called distressed sales remains near historically low levels. GLVAR reported that short sales and foreclosures combined accounted for just 3.0% of all existing local property sales in April. That compares to 2.5% of all sales one year ago and 8.4% two years ago. emphasis added 1) Overall sales were up 1.5% year-over-year from 3,571 in April 2018 to 3,625 in April 2019. 2) Active inventory (single-family and condos) is up sharply from a year ago, from a total of 4,606 in April 2018 to 9,261 in April 2019. Note: Total inventory was up 101% year-over-year.   This is a significant increase in inventory, although months-of-supply is still somewhat low. 3) Low level of distressed sales, but up slightly YoY...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:02 AM » U.S. Factories Are Less Upbeat on 2019 Sales on Hiring, Tariffs
    Published Wed, May 08 2019 11:02 AM by Bloomberg
    U.S. Factories Are Less Upbeat on 2019 Sales on Hiring, Tariffs    Bloomberg U.S. manufacturers remain upbeat about sales this year, though less so than before as a majority say hiring remains difficult and tariffs have raised prices.
  • 10:33 AM » Where Trump has support in battle with Fed over rates: The smallest small businesses
    Published Wed, May 08 2019 10:33 AM by CNBC
    The smallest businesses on Main Street are preoccupied with interest rates they say are too high, while larger business owners are more focused on the tight labor market and hiring, according to the latest CNBC/SurveyMonkey Small Business Survey.
  • 9:52 AM » U.S. will raise tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports: Federal Register
    Published Wed, May 08 2019 9:52 AM by Reuters
    The United States will raise tariffs from 10 percent to 25 percent on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports effective Friday, according to a notice posted to the Federal Register on Wednesday.
  • 9:31 AM » Brainard, "Fed Listens" in Richmond: How Does Monetary Policy Affect Your Community?
    Published Wed, May 08 2019 9:31 AM by Federal Reserve
    Speech At the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Richmond Community Listening Session, Richmond, Virginia
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Federal Reserve
  • 8:04 AM » Exclusive: China backtracked on nearly all aspects of U.S. trade deal - sources
    Published Wed, May 08 2019 8:04 AM by Reuters
    The diplomatic cable from Beijing arrived in Washington late on Friday night, with systematic edits to a nearly 150-page draft trade agreement that would blow up months of negotiations between the world's two largest economies, according to three U.S. government sources and three private sector sources briefed on the talks.
  • Tue, May 7 2019
  • 2:30 PM » The Hottest Markets of April 2019: All Fired Up Over Affordability
    Published Tue, May 07 2019 2:30 PM by www.realtor.com
    As home buyers continue to seek affordability, metros in the Midwest and Northeast are luring ever more of them, according to an analysis of realtor.com data for April. The post The Hottest Markets of April 2019: All Fired Up Over Affordability appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 2:29 PM » 'Bond King' Jeffrey Gundlach says the national debt is 'totally out of control'
    Published Tue, May 07 2019 2:29 PM by CNBC
    'Bond King' Jeffrey Gundlach says the national debt is 'totally out of control'<br/>https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/07/bond-king-jeffrey-gundlach-says-the-national-debt-is-totally-out-of-control.html
  • 2:28 PM » Seattle Real Estate in April: Sales unchanged YoY, Inventory up 124% YoY from Low Levels
    Published Tue, May 07 2019 2:28 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The Northwest Multiple Listing Service reported Northwest MLS Housing Report for April Signals Good News for Home Buyers Housing activity during April signaled good news for buyers in Western Washington as inventory continued to grow, the rate of price increases was slowing in many areas (and even decreasing in a few counties), and mortgage rates remained low. Northwest Multiple Listing Service statistics for last month show a 28.5 percent overall increase in active listings compared to the same month a year ago , a 5.8 percent gain in pending sales, and a 2.4 percent rise in median prices for sales of single family homes and condos that closed during April. The volume of closings dipped slightly (down 1.9 percent). emphasis added The press release is for the Northwest. In King County, sales were down 1% year-over-year, and active inventory was up 78% year-over-year. In Seattle, sales were unchanged year-over-year, and inventory was up 124% year-over-year from very low levels .  This is another market with inventory increasing sharply year-over-year, but months-of-supply in Seattle is still on the low side at 1.9 months.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:28 PM » China sends top negotiator to U.S. in bid to avert tariff hike
    Published Tue, May 07 2019 2:28 PM by Reuters
    Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will travel to Washington for trade talks on Thursday and Friday, Beijing said on Tuesday, setting up a last-ditch bid to avoid a sharp increase in tariffs on Chinese goods announced by President Donald Trump.
  • 11:57 AM » Farmers feel the pain as lawmakers haggle over delayed disaster relief plan
    Published Tue, May 07 2019 11:57 AM by CNBC
    Lawmakers in both parties typically work together to send help quickly following a natural disaster. But this time, aid for farmers like Greg Mims has gotten tangled up inside a massive $17 billion disaster relief bill that has languished for months on Capitol Hill.
  • 9:53 AM » Global Bond Traders Are Betting Against the Latest Trump Threat
    Published Tue, May 07 2019 9:53 AM by Bloomberg
    Global Bond Traders Are Betting Against the Latest Trump Threat    Bloomberg Bond investors are betting that trade tensions will abate to send global yields rising again.
  • 9:19 AM » CoreLogic: House Prices up 3.7% Year-over-year in March
    Published Tue, May 07 2019 9:19 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for March . The recent Case-Shiller index release was for February. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). From CoreLogic: CoreLogic Reports March Home Prices Increased by 3.7% Year Over Year CoreLogic® ... today released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for March 2019, which shows home prices rose both year over year and month over month. Home prices increased nationally by 3.7% year over year from March 2018. On a month-over-month basis, prices increased by 1% in March 2019. (February 2019 data was revised. Revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results each month.) Looking ahead, after some initial moderation in early 2019, the CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates home prices will begin to pick up and increase by 4.8% on a year-over-year basis from March 2019 to March 2020. On a month-over-month basis, home prices are expected to decrease by 0.3% from March 2019 to April 2019. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices calculated using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state. "The U.S. housing market continues to cool, primarily due to some of our priciest markets moving into frigid waters ," said Dr. Ralph McLaughlin, deputy chief economist at CoreLogic. "But the broader market looks more temperate as supply and demand come into balance. With mortgage rates flat and inventory picking up, we expect more buyers to take advantage of easing housing market headwinds." emphasis added CR Note: The CoreLogic YoY increase had been in the 5% to 7% range for the last few years. This is the slowest twelve-month home-price growth rate since 2012. The year-over-year comparison...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:07 AM » EU's Juncker say he trusts Trump on trade, needs quick U.S.-China deal
    Published Tue, May 07 2019 8:07 AM by Reuters
    The head of the EU executive said on Tuesday that U.S. President Donald Trump could be trusted on EU-U.S. trade relations and that the Sino-U.S. trade conflict needed to be resolved soon to restore investor confidence.
  • 8:05 AM » Fed Issues More Warnings on Danger of High-Risk Company Debt
    Published Tue, May 07 2019 8:05 AM by Bloomberg
    Fed Issues More Warnings on Danger of High-Risk Company Debt    Bloomberg The Federal Reserve escalated its warnings about the perils of risky borrowing by businesses Monday, saying firms with the worst credit profiles are the ones ...
  • Mon, May 6 2019
  • 3:53 PM » Update: Framing Lumber Prices Down 35% Year-over-year
    Published Mon, May 06 2019 3:53 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices.   Lumber prices declined from the record highs in early 2018, and are now down about 35% year-over-year. This graph shows two measures of lumber prices: 1) Framing Lumber from Random Lengths through April 26, 2019 ( via NAHB ), and 2) CME framing futures. Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery. Right now Random Lengths prices are down 31% from a year ago, and CME futures are  down 40% year-over-year. There is a seasonal pattern for lumber prices, and usually prices will increase in the Spring, and peak around May, and then bottom around October or November - although there is quite a bit of seasonal variability.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 3:12 PM » Fed: U.S. stock prices elevated, business debt high, but financial system 'resilient'
    Published Mon, May 06 2019 3:12 PM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. stock prices remain "elevated" and business debt is at historic levels, but the financial system overall "appears resilient" with low levels of leverage and less susceptibility to risks of a destabilizing run, the Federal Reserve said in its latest report on financial stability.
  • 3:06 PM » Chinese delegation will come to the US for trade talks after Trump tariff threat
    Published Mon, May 06 2019 3:06 PM by CNBC
    The team from Beijing was set to start talks with American negotiators on Wednesday as the world's two largest economies push for a trade agreement.
  • 1:54 PM » Homeowners Fault Government for Hurricane Harvey Damage
    Published Mon, May 06 2019 1:54 PM by www.realtor.com
    Houston area residents allege the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers knew houses were at risk and now, under eminent domain law, owe them compensation. The post Homeowners Fault Government for Hurricane Harvey Damage appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 11:51 AM » Just 10% of Nashville Homes Are Affordable to Local Musicians, Down From 50% Five Years Ago
    Published Mon, May 06 2019 11:51 AM by www.redfin.com
    For musicians in Nashville, just 10% of homes are affordable. The city's $500M commitment to affordable housing-along with a request for $250 million from the private sector-is aiming to change that. The post Just 10% of Nashville Homes Are Affordable to Local Musicians, Down From 50% Five Years Ago appeared first on Redfin Real-Time .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.redfin.com
  • 10:56 AM » NYDFS Creates New "Powerhouse" Consumer Protection and Financial Enforcement Division
    Published Mon, May 06 2019 10:56 AM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    The New York Department of Financial Services has announced the creation of a new "powerhouse" Consumer Protection and Financial Enforcement Division. The Division has been created by consolidating the Enforcement and Financial Frauds Division and Consumer Protection Division and will place supervision, enforcement, and consumer education under the same roof. The Division consists of the... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 10:40 AM » How to Report the Monthly Employment Number excluding Temporary Census Hiring
    Published Mon, May 06 2019 10:40 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The Census Bureau will soon start hiring temporary workers for the 2020 Census. Temporary hiring will really increase in March, April and May of 2020, and then the jobs will finish in a few months. These are real jobs - frequently second jobs, or taken by seniors and students - but they will only last a few months. Since these are temporary, and only happen every ten years with the decennial Census, it makes sense to adjust the headline monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) by Census hiring to determine the underlying employment trend. The correct adjustment method is to take the headline number and subtract the change in the number of Census 2020 temporary and intermittent workers. The BLS reports the number of Census temporary workers here: Census 2020 temporary and intermittent workers and Federal government employment As an example, in May 2010, the Census hired 411 thousand temporary workers.   The BLS reported (since revised) "Total nonfarm payroll employment grew by 431,000 in May, reflecting the hiring of 411,000 temporary employees to work on Census 2010, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today." So the underlying trend was +20,000 jobs in May 2010 (as originally reported). For June 2010, the number of temporary Census hires declined by 225,000. The BLS reported "Total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 125,000 in June, and the unemployment rate edged down to 9.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The decline in payroll employment reflected a decrease (-225,000) in the number of temporary employees working on Census 2010." So the underlying trend was +100,000. Some readers will notice that this is mixing SA and NSA data! Usually that is not appropriate, but in this special case, based on the methods used by the BLS, this is correct. I checked with the BLS, and they agree in this situation it is correct. Here is my question (back in March 2010) and the BLS response: 9:34 Michele Walker...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:58 AM » Redfin Migration Report: Phoenix is the Top Destination, Particularly among Los Angelenos and People Looking to Leave Other Expensive, High-Tax Metros
    Published Mon, May 06 2019 9:58 AM by www.redfin.com
    Twenty-five percent of Redfin.com home searchers looked to move to another metro area in the first quarter of 2019, compared to 23 percent during the same period last year. The post Redfin Migration Report: Phoenix is the Top Destination, Particularly among Los Angelenos and People Looking to Leave Other Expensive, High-Tax Metros appeared first on Redfin Real-Time .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.redfin.com
  • 9:32 AM » German economy minister urges United States, China to resolve trade dispute
    Published Mon, May 06 2019 9:32 AM by Reuters
    Germany hopes that an escalation of the trade dispute between the United States and China can be avoided, Economy Minister Peter Altmaier said on Monday, adding that all parties should be careful with implementing unilateral decisions.
  • 8:00 AM » US Treasury yields tick lower as investors digest new US tariffs on China
    Published Mon, May 06 2019 8:00 AM by CNBC
    U.S. government debt prices were higher on Monday morning, as investors digested news that the White House will impose higher tariffs on Chinese goods.
  • Fri, May 3 2019
  • 5:00 PM » Fed's Kaplan says inflation to remain muted, economy running out of workers
    Published Fri, May 03 2019 5:00 PM by CNBC
    Fed's Kaplan says inflation to remain muted, economy running out of workers<br/>https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/03/feds-kaplan-says-inflation-to-remain-muted-economy-running-out-of-workers.html
  • 5:00 PM » Some U.S. Fed officials are more worried by weak inflation
    Published Fri, May 03 2019 5:00 PM by Reuters
    Two Federal Reserve policymakers on Friday said they were increasingly worried about weak inflation, an indication that some U.S. central bankers see a growing case for a future interest rate cut even as others push for continued patience.
  • 2:24 PM » The Fed Muddled Its Inflation Message
    Published Fri, May 03 2019 2:24 PM by Bloomberg
    The Fed Muddled Its Inflation Message    Bloomberg Central bank policy makers are looking for reasons to ignore the lack of upward pressure in consumer prices.
  • 1:49 PM » Fed's Mester says she fully supports the central bank's patient stance
    Published Fri, May 03 2019 1:49 PM by CNBC
    Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester spoke with CNBC on Friday.
  • 1:31 PM » Millions of homes are underinsured against natural disasters as construction costs keep rising
    Published Fri, May 03 2019 1:31 PM by CNBC
    Increasingly extreme weather, from floods to wildfires to high-category hurricanes, are causing increasing damage to the nation's neighborhoods. Now, new research shows much of the nation's housing stock may be underinsured for these disasters.
  • 12:36 PM » Fed Rate-Cut Bets at Risk as Powell Says Low Inflation Transient
    Published Fri, May 03 2019 12:36 PM by Bloomberg
    Fed Rate-Cut Bets at Risk as Powell Says Low Inflation Transient    Bloomberg Options traders who've been betting aggressively on a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut by year-end may have to bail on those positions after Chairman Jerome ...
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Mortgage Rates:
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