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  • Thu, Sep 6 2018
  • 10:08 AM » ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 58.5% in August
    Published Thu, Sep 06 2018 10:08 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The August ISM Non-manufacturing index was at 58.5%, up from 55.7% in July. The employment index increased in August to 56.7%, from 56.1%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management: August 2018 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in August for the 103rd consecutive month, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: " The NMI® registered 58.5 percent , which is 2.8 percentage points higher than the July reading of 55.7 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 60.7 percent, 4.2 percentage points higher than the July reading of 56.5 percent, reflecting growth for the 109th consecutive month, at a faster rate in August. The New Orders Index registered 60.4 percent, 3.4 percentage points higher than the reading of 57 percent in July. The Employment Index increased 0.6 percentage point in August to 56.7 percent from the July reading of 56.1 percent. The Prices Index decreased by 0.6 percentage point from the July reading of 63.4 percent to 62.8 percent, indicating that prices increased in August for the 30th consecutive month. According to the NMI®, 16 non-manufacturing industries reported growth. There was a strong rebound for the non-manufacturing sector in August after growth 'cooled off' in July. Logistics, tariffs and employment resources continue to have an impact on many of the respective industries. Overall, the respondents remain positive about business conditions and the economy." emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the ISM non...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:38 AM » U.S., Canadian trade negotiators set for second day of talks
    Published Thu, Sep 06 2018 9:38 AM by Reuters
    Top U.S. and Canadian trade negotiators were set for a second day of talks on Thursday over a revised North American Free Trade Agreement after their subordinates worked late into the night to flesh out opportunities for a compromise deal.
  • 8:27 AM » ADP: Private Employment increased 163,000 in August
    Published Thu, Sep 06 2018 8:27 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From ADP: Private sector employment increased by 163,000 jobs from July to August according to the August ADP National Employment Report®. ... The report, which is derived from ADP's actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis. ... "Although we saw a small slowdown in job growth the market remains incredibly dynamic," said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. "Midsized businesses continue to be the engine of growth, adding nearly 70 percent of all jobs this month, and remain resiliant in the current economic climate." Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics, said, "The job market is hot. Employers are aggressively competing to hold onto their existing workers and to find new ones. Small businesses are struggling the most in this competition, as they increasingly can't fill open positions." This was below the consensus forecast for 182,000 private sector jobs added in the ADP report.  The BLS report for August will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 198,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in August.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:08 AM » Two More Fed Hikes Could Trigger a Bear Market, Stifel Says
    Published Thu, Sep 06 2018 8:08 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Two More Fed Hikes Could Trigger a Bear Market, Stifel Says Bloomberg The Federal Reserve may trigger a U.S. equity bear market after two more interest-rate increases, according to the brokerage Stifel Nicolaus. If expectations of two more Fed hikes in 2018 are correct, then an indicator based on the so-called neutral ...
  • 8:03 AM » Home Buyers Find That It May Be More Affordable to Buy 2 Homes Than 1
    Published Thu, Sep 06 2018 8:03 AM by www.realtor.com
    Accessory dwelling units have been catching on as a way to combat the housing shortage-and give potential home buyers a much-needed break. The post Home Buyers Find That It May Be More Affordable to Buy 2 Homes Than 1 appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 8:02 AM » A decade after housing crash, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are Uncle Sam's cash cows
    Published Thu, Sep 06 2018 8:02 AM by CNBC
    The bailout of Fannie and Freddie saved the housing market, but the two are still under government control. Now the question is how to get them out.
  • Wed, Sep 5 2018
  • 3:52 PM » Ryan Says Vote on New Tax Cuts Still Planned, Despite SALT Hangups
    Published Wed, Sep 05 2018 3:52 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Ryan Says Vote on New Tax Cuts Still Planned, Despite SALT Hangups Bloomberg House GOP leaders are forging ahead with a vote on a second phase of tax cuts this month, despite dissension from Republicans in high-tax states who say the measure would hurt their voters. The legislation would make permanent all the individual ... and more »
  • 3:50 PM » This map shows where in the US you need to make over $5,500 a month to rent the average home
    Published Wed, Sep 05 2018 3:50 PM by CNBC
    HowMuch.net determined that, in some states, families need to make upward of $80,000 or $90,000 a year to afford average rent.
  • 2:39 PM » Treasury, FHFA Chiefs Preparing for Freddie CEO's Exit
    Published Wed, Sep 05 2018 2:39 PM by Bloomberg
    Treasury, FHFA Chiefs Preparing for Freddie CEO's Exit Bloomberg The Treasury Department and a key housing regulator are preparing to fill a second possible vacancy atop a U.S.-controlled mortgage giant, a move that could strengthen the Trump administration's hand in addressing unfinished business from the 2008 ... and more »
  • 11:55 AM » U.S. Light Vehicle Sales at 16.7 million annual rate in August
    Published Wed, Sep 05 2018 11:55 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Based on a preliminary estimate from AutoData, light vehicle sales were at a 16.7 million SAAR in August. Note: All other data from the BEA (the BEA will report this month's sales soon). That is up 1.5% year-over-year from August 2017, and unchanged from last month. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the historical light vehicle sales from the BEA (blue) and an estimate for August (red, light vehicle sales of 16.7 million SAAR  from AutoData). Note that this was an easy comparison to last August, since sales in August 2017 were negatively impacted by hurricanes.  The increase in sales at the end of 2017 was due to buying following the hurricanes. Sales will probably decline in 2018 after setting new sales records in both 2015 and 2016. The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. Note: dashed line is current estimated sales rate. This was below the consensus forecast for August.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:39 AM » White House says wages are growing faster than 'traditional measures' indicate
    Published Wed, Sep 05 2018 11:39 AM by CNBC
    Many of the ways that wages are measured are underestimating the amount of gains for American workers, the White House said Wednesday in a report. Worker compensation adjusted for inflation and taxes has increased between 1.4 percent and 1.9 percent over the past year, an analysis from the Council of Economic Advisers maintained in response to headline gauges that suggest real wages essentially have been flat.
  • 11:31 AM » It's better to rent than to buy in today's housing market
    Published Wed, Sep 05 2018 11:31 AM by CNBC
    Fast-rising home prices and higher mortgage rates have made it both cheaper and a better investment to rent a home than to buy one. The monthly costs of buying and owning a home are up 14 percent over the past year. Rents are up just 4 percent.
  • 10:55 AM » US Trade Gap Widens Most Since 2015; China Deficit Hits Record
    Published Wed, Sep 05 2018 10:55 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg US Trade Gap Widens Most Since 2015; China Deficit Hits Record Bloomberg The U.S. trade deficit widened in July by the most in three years and the gap with China hit a record as the Trump administration imposed tariffs on a range of Chinese goods, prompting retaliatory levies from Beijing. The gap increased 9.5 percent to ... and more »
  • 10:23 AM » Ten Years After Lehman—Lessons Learned and Challenges Ahead
    Published Wed, Sep 05 2018 10:23 AM by IMF
    By Christine Lagarde September 5, 2018 A trader on the New York Stock Exchange the day US investment bank Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy: the global crisis that followed is a defining moment of our […]
  • 9:40 AM » Lot Values Climb Higher
    Published Wed, Sep 05 2018 9:40 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    According to NAHB's analysis of the Census Bureau's Survey of Construction (SOC) data, single-family lot prices reached new record high in 2017, with half of the lots priced at or above $47,400. While this constitutes a new nominal record, lot values adjusted for inflation have not reached the housing boom peaks. In the midst of the housing boom – when... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 8:43 AM » U.S. trade deficit rises to five-month high on declining exports
    Published Wed, Sep 05 2018 8:43 AM by Reuters
    The U.S. trade deficit increased to a five-month high in July as exports of soybeans and civilian aircraft declined and imports hit a record high, suggesting that trade could be a drag on economic growth in the third quarter.
  • 8:10 AM » US Treasury yields slip ahead of a slew of Fed speeches
    Published Wed, Sep 05 2018 8:10 AM by CNBC
    U.S. government debt prices posted solid gains on Wednesday.
  • Tue, Sep 4 2018
  • 4:34 PM » These three factors are a 'recipe for higher yields,' Wells Fargo strategist says
    Published Tue, Sep 04 2018 4:34 PM by CNBC
    Treasury yields have been in a summer lull since hitting their highest level since 2011 in May. Autumn should pave the way for a renewed push higher in yields, according to one top strategist.
  • 1:43 PM » Why homeowners outside of Gordon's path should check their insurance
    Published Tue, Sep 04 2018 1:43 PM by CNBC
    Although it's too late for homeowners who may be affected by this storm to make insurance changes, Gordon should serve as a reminder to people in other hurricane-prone areas to ensure their coverage is sufficient in case the next damaging weather system heads their way.
  • 1:43 PM » California Has Largest Public School Real Estate Premiums in U.S.
    Published Tue, Sep 04 2018 1:43 PM by www.realtor.com
    Buyers across the country are willing to pay significantly more for a home with the added perk of living within walking distance of highly ranked schools. The post California Has Largest Public School Real Estate Premiums in U.S. appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 11:54 AM » Atlanta Fed raises U.S. third-quarter GDP view to 4.7 percent
    Published Tue, Sep 04 2018 11:54 AM by Reuters
    The U.S. economy is growing at a 4.7 percent annualized rate in the third quarter, the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow forecast model showed on Tuesday, following the latest data on construction spending and factory activity.
  • 11:48 AM » How Much House $1 Buys — 1998-2008-2018
    Published Tue, Sep 04 2018 11:48 AM by blog.stewart.com
    While much of the U.S. bricks and sticks retail industry is struggling, given the structural shift in shopping, not included in that disarray are stores where everything is $1. I am also old enough to remember when my weekly allowance was $1. A single dollar in those days, however, bought a lot more than today … Read more
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: blog.stewart.com
  • 11:14 AM » Agencies Extend Comment Period for Proposed Rule Simplifying and Tailoring the "Volcker Rule"
    Published Tue, Sep 04 2018 11:14 AM by SEC
    Joint Release Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Commodity Futures Trading Commission Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Office of the Comptroller of the Currency Securities and Exchange Commission Five federal financial regulatory agencies on Tuesday extended until Oct. 17, 2018, the comment period for a proposed rule to simplify and tailor compliance requirements for the "Volcker rule." The Volcker rule generally restricts banking entities from engaging in proprietary trading and from owning or controlling hedge funds or private equity funds. With the extension, the Federal Reserve Board, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, and the Securities and Exchange Commission will have provided interested parties with approximately four and a half months from the date the proposal was released to the public to submit comments. The proposal was released by the agencies in early June with a 60-day comment period that began after publication in the Federal Register on July 17. Media Contacts: Federal Reserve Board CFTC FDIC OCC SEC Eric Kollig Erica Richardson David Barr Joe Adamoli Chris Carofine 202-452-2955 202-418-8090 202-898-6992 202-649-6870 202-551-4120
  • 10:53 AM » U.S. construction spending rises slightly in July
    Published Tue, Sep 04 2018 10:53 AM by CNBC
    U.S. construction spending rises slightly in July|| 105414590
  • 10:28 AM » CFPB Provides Additional Guidance on HMDA Partial Exemption
    Published Tue, Sep 04 2018 10:28 AM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    The CFPB recently released an interpretive and procedural rule to implement and clarify the partial exemption from the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) adopted in the Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief, and Consumer Protection Act (also known as S.2155). As we reported previously, the Act amended HMDA to create an exemption applicable to the new data... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 10:18 AM » ISM Manufacturing index increased to 61.3 in August
    Published Tue, Sep 04 2018 10:18 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in August. The PMI was at 61.3% in August, up from 58.1% in July. The employment index was at 58.5%, up from 56.5% last month, and the new orders index was at 65.1%, up from 60.2%. From the Institute for Supply Management: August 2018 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in August, and the overall economy grew for the 112th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: " The August PMI® registered 61.3 percent , an increase of 3.2 percentage points from the July reading of 58.1 percent. The New Orders Index registered 65.1 percent , an increase of 4.9 percentage points from the July reading of 60.2 percent. The Production Index registered 63.3 percent, a 4.8-percentage point increase compared to the July reading of 58.5 percent. The Employment Index registered 58.5 percent , an increase of 2 percentage points from the July reading of 56.5 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 64.5 percent, a 2.4-percentage point increase from the July reading of 62.1 percent. The Inventories Index registered 55.4 percent, an increase of 2.1 percentage points from the July reading of 53.3 percent. The Prices Index registered 72.1 percent in August, a 1.1-percentage point decrease from the July reading of 73.2 percent, indicating higher raw materials prices for the 30th consecutive month. "Respondents are again overwhelmingly concerned about tariff-related activity, including how reciprocal tariffs will impact company revenue and current manufacturing locations." emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index. This was above expectations of 57.6...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:45 AM » In Four Southern States, Nearly 90 Percent of New Homes Have Porches
    Published Tue, Sep 04 2018 9:45 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    Of the roughly 850,000 single-family homes started in 2017, 64.7 percent were built with porches, according to NAHB tabulation of data from the Survey of Construction (SOC). The SOC is conducted on an ongoing, monthly basis by the U.S. Census Bureau, partially supported with funding from the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Among other things, the SOC data show that, over the... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 8:24 AM » CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.2% Year-over-year in July
    Published Tue, Sep 04 2018 8:24 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for July . The recent Case-Shiller index release was for June. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). From CoreLogic: oreLogic Reports July Home Prices Increased by 6.2 Percent, Homeowners Waiting to Sell for Anticipated Increase Return on Investment CoreLogic® ... today released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for July 2018, which shows home prices rose both year over year and month over month. Home prices increased nationally by 6.2 percent year over year from July 2017 to July 2018 . On a month-over-month basis, prices increased by 0.3 percent in July 2018 compared with June 2018. (June 2018 data was revised. Revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results each month.) Looking ahead, the CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that the national home-price index is projected to continue to increase by 5.1 percent on a year-over-year basis from July 2018 to July 2019. On a month-over-month basis, homeprices are expected to decrease by 0.2 percent from July to August 2018. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices that is calculated using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state. " With increased interest rates and home prices, the CoreLogic Home Price Index is rising at a slower rate than it was a year ago ," said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. "While markets in the western part of the country continue to experience rapid home-price growth, many of those metros are overvalued, and will likely experience a slowdown soon." emphasis added CR Note: The CoreLogic YoY increase has been in the 5% to 7% range for the last few years.  This is near...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:07 AM » Italian bond yields tumble as market pessimism over budget recedes
    Published Tue, Sep 04 2018 8:07 AM by Reuters
    Italian bond yields tumble as market pessimism over budget recedes
  • 8:04 AM » Trump's Fight With Canada Over Nafta Faces New Hurdles
    Published Tue, Sep 04 2018 8:04 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Trump's Fight With Canada Over Nafta Faces New Hurdles Bloomberg President Donald Trump's effort to force Canada into signing on to a new Nafta on his terms is facing new hurdles thanks to growing opposition at home to his threat to proceed without the U.S.'s northern neighbor. Trump's frustration spilled into the ... and more »
  • Fri, Aug 31 2018
  • 5:22 PM » Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate decreased in July, Lowest since Oct 2007
    Published Fri, Aug 31 2018 5:22 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate decreased to 0.88% in July, down from 0.97% in June. The serious delinquency rate is down from 1.00% in July 2017. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".  The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59%. This is the lowest serious delinquency for Fannie Mae since October 2007. Click on graph for larger image By vintage , for loans made in 2004 or earlier (3% of portfolio), 2.80% are seriously delinquent. For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (6% of portfolio), 5.01% are seriously delinquent , For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2018 (91% of portfolio), only 0.37% are seriously delinquent. So Fannie is still working through poor performing loans from the bubble years. The increase late last year in the delinquency rate was due to the hurricanes - there were no worries about the overall market (These are serious delinquencies, so it took three months late to be counted). I expect the serious delinquency rate will probably decline to 0.5 to 0.7 percent or so to a cycle bottom. Note: Freddie Mac reported earlier.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 4:41 PM » U.S. says to move ahead with Mexico trade pact, keep talking with Canada
    Published Fri, Aug 31 2018 4:41 PM by Reuters
    President Donald Trump told the U.S. Congress on Friday he plans to sign a trade deal with Mexico in 90 days, which Canada could join "if it is willing," Trump's top trade official said on Friday.
  • 1:33 PM » It's Trump, Not Just the Fed, Driving the Short-Term Muni Frenzy
    Published Fri, Aug 31 2018 1:33 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg It's Trump, Not Just the Fed, Driving the Short-Term Muni Frenzy Bloomberg It's not just rising rates. It's Trump, too. That's what Jason Ware, head of trading at 280 CapMarkets in San Francisco, offers as an explanation of short-term municipal bond yields, some of which are holding near a four-year low relative to Treasuries ...
  • 12:38 PM » Lot Size Remains Record Low
    Published Fri, Aug 31 2018 12:38 PM by eyeonhousing.org
    The median lot size of a new single-family detached home sold in 2017 stands at 8,560 square feet, or just under one-fifth of an acre. This is just 2 square feet smaller but statistically not different from the 2016 median. In 2015, the median lot size fell under 8,600 square feet for the first time since Census Bureau's Survey of... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 11:53 AM » The Neighborhood Names With the Highest—and Lowest—Home Prices
    Published Fri, Aug 31 2018 11:53 AM by www.realtor.com
    What's in a name? Well, when it comes to what a neighborhood is called, a name could signify how much homes within it are worth. The post The Neighborhood Names With the Highest-and Lowest-Home Prices appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 11:00 AM » Millennials put pets first when buying a home
    Published Fri, Aug 31 2018 11:00 AM by CNBC
    When shopping for homes, millennials are putting their pets' needs at the top of their list.
  • 10:42 AM » Record London Rents Lure Overseas Landlords to House Market
    Published Fri, Aug 31 2018 10:42 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Record London Rents Lure Overseas Landlords to House Market Bloomberg The U.K.'s struggle to secure a favorable Brexit deal may be giving Prime Minister Theresa May a headache, but it's making London's battered buy-to-let market attractive overseas again. Foreign-based landlords owned 12 percent of the homes rented out ... and more »
  • 10:07 AM » Consumer sentiment hits 96.2 in August, vs. 95.5 estimate
    Published Fri, Aug 31 2018 10:07 AM by CNBC
    Consumer sentiment in the U.S. was expected to slide in the final reading of August, further weakening from concerns raised by Americans last month.
  • 9:50 AM » The $1 billion price cut: Luxury real estate gets slashed
    Published Fri, Aug 31 2018 9:50 AM by CNBC
    The new federal tax law, which limits deductions of state and local taxes, is also putting pressure on real-estate in high-tax states. And foreign buyers, who were driving some of the highest-priced sales in 2014 and 2015, have pulled back. A stronger dollar has also made U.S. real-estate more expensive.
  • 9:22 AM » Hotels: Occupancy Rate Unchanged Year-over-Year
    Published Fri, Aug 31 2018 9:22 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 25 August The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 19-25 August 2018, according to data from STR. In comparison with the week of 20-26 August 2017, the industry recorded the following: • Occupancy: flat at 69.5% • Average daily rate (ADR): +1.8% to US$127.55 • Revenue per available room (RevPAR): +1.8% to US$88.69 ... STR analysts note that percentage changes in several markets were negatively affected by a comparison with the week of the Great American Eclipse in 2017 . emphasis added The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2018, dash light blue is 2017 (record year due to hurricanes), blue is the median, and black is for 2009 (the worst year probably since the Great Depression for hotels). The occupancy rate, to date, is close to the record year in 2017.  Note: 2017 finished strong due to the impact of the hurricanes. On a seasonal basis, the 4-week average of the occupancy rate will decline into the Fall. Data Source: STR, Courtesy of HotelNewsNow.com
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
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