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  • Wed, Apr 11 2018
  • 9:23 AM » BLS: CPI decreased 0.1% in March, Core CPI increased 0.2%
    Published Wed, Apr 11 2018 9:23 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the BLS : The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 0.1 percent in March on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.2 percent in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.4 percent before seasonal adjustment. A decline in the gasoline index more than outweighed increases in the indexes for shelter, medical care, and food to result in the slight seasonally adjusted decline in the all items index. The energy index fell sharply due mainly to the 4.9-percent decrease in the gasoline index. The index for food rose 0.1 percent over the month, with the indexes for food at home and food away from home both increasing The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.2 percent in March , the same increase as in February. ... The all items index rose 2.4 percent for the 12 months ending March, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending March 2017 and higher than the 1.6-percent average annual rate over the past 10 years. The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.1 percent, its largest 12-month increase since the period ending February 2017. emphasis added I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI. This was close to the consensus forecast of no change for CPI, and a 0.2% increase in core CPI.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:14 AM » Tread very carefully when considering purchase of a home in a tax or foreclosure sale
    Published Wed, Apr 11 2018 8:14 AM by Washington Post
    REAL ESTATE MATTERS | You just don't know what condition the property is in or what it will take to make it habitable.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Washington Post
  • 8:14 AM » Futures drop on rising U.S.-Russia tensions over Syria
    Published Wed, Apr 11 2018 8:14 AM by Reuters
    (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures fell sharply on Wednesday due to rising concerns over confrontation between the United States and Russia over military action in Syria.
  • 8:13 AM » House-Senate standoff imperils effort to roll back banking rules
    Published Wed, Apr 11 2018 8:13 AM by Washington Post
    The White House is looking to notch another victory - and top officials appear to be losing patience with the impasse.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Washington Post
  • 8:08 AM » Russia warns any U.S. missiles fired at Syria will be shot down
    Published Wed, Apr 11 2018 8:08 AM by Reuters
    BEIRUT (Reuters) - Russia has warned that any U.S. missiles fired at Syria over a suspected chemical weapons attack on a rebel enclave would be shot down and the launch sites targeted, raising the possibility of a U.S.-Russian confrontation.
  • 8:08 AM » Missiles 'will be coming' to Syria, Trump warns Russia
    Published Wed, Apr 11 2018 8:08 AM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON/BEIRUT (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump warned Russia on Wednesday of imminent military action in Syria over a suspected poison gas attack, declaring that missiles "will be coming" and lambasting Moscow for standing by Syrian President Bashar Assad.
  • 8:08 AM » Luxury Homes Are Taking Longer to Sell and That's Costing Owners
    Published Wed, Apr 11 2018 8:08 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Luxury Homes Are Taking Longer to Sell and That's Costing Owners Bloomberg Luxury homes aren't selling as fast as they used to. And their owners are paying a price for the slowness. Last year, 72 percent of the most-expensive properties in the U.S. took longer than 180 days to sell, a sharp jump from 2015, when 59 percent of ...
  • Tue, Apr 10 2018
  • 5:15 PM » Inflation could show more sizzle than expected
    Published Tue, Apr 10 2018 5:15 PM by CNBC
    Traders are watching to see if March consumer inflation data will run hotter than expected Wednesday, just as producer prices did Tuesday.
  • 5:14 PM » Port of Long Beach: Record Port Traffic in Q1 2018
    Published Tue, Apr 10 2018 5:14 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Port of Long Beach: Port of Long Beach Breaks 1st Quarter Record The Port of Long Beach has completed its best-ever first quarter, with marine terminals handling almost 1.9 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) January through March. The quick start is 19.4 percent more than the first quarter of 2017, the Port's busiest year ever. The previous first quarter record was set in 2007. March throughput reached 575,258 TEUs, an increase of 13.8 percent compared to the same month last year. "Our March cargo jumped despite the shipping slowdown during the Lunar New Year holiday in China," said Port of Long Beach Executive Director Mario Cordero. CR Notes: Exports were up sharply in March. I'll have more on the LA area port traffic once Los Angeles releases their March statistics.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:41 PM » CFPB issues annual complaint report
    Published Tue, Apr 10 2018 2:41 PM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    The CFPB has issued its Consumer Response Annual Report that provides an analysis of the approximately 320,200 complaints received by the CFPB between January 1 and December 31, 2017. (In 2016, the CFPB received approximately 291,400 complaints.) The report provides data on the most common types of complaints for each product and the handling of... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 2:40 PM » Q1 Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2018
    Published Tue, Apr 10 2018 2:40 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    At the end of last year, I posted Ten Economic Questions for 2018 . I followed up with a brief post on each question. The goal was to provide an overview of what I expected in 2018 (I don't have a crystal ball, but I think it helps to outline what I think will happen - and understand - and change my mind, when the outlook is wrong). By request, here is a quick Q1 review (it is very early in the year). I've linked to my posts from the beginning of the year, with a brief excerpt and a few comments: 10) Question #10 for 2018: Will the New Tax Law impact Home Sales, Inventory, and Price Growth in Certain States? My sense is the low end of the housing market will be fine. The Mortgage Interest Deduction (MID) will be capped at interest on a mortgage up to $750,000 instead of $1,000,000, so the lower priced markets will not be hit by the reduction in the MID. There might be some additional taxes for these buyers due to the limits on SALT and property taxes, but this should be minor. I also expect the high end of the market to be fine. The high end is already doing well even with the MID capped at $1 million. For these buyers, the bigger impact will be the SALT and property tax limitations, but there will be offsets for these buyers due to the lower rates - and these buyers will likely benefit from the corporate tax cuts.  Many of these buyers will also benefit from the changes to the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT). It is the upper-mid-range in the certain markets that will probably slow.  This might be in the $750,000 to $1.5 million price range.  These potential buyers probably don't benefit from the AMT or corporate changes, but they will likely be hit by the SALT and property tax limits.  It is still too early to determine the impact of the new tax law on housing. 9) Question #9 for 2018: Will housing inventory increase or decrease in 2018? I was wrong on inventory last year (and the previous year), but right now my guess is...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 12:37 PM » Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 46 states in February
    Published Tue, Apr 10 2018 12:37 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Philly Fed : The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for February 2018. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in all 50 states, for a three-month diffusion index of 100. In the past month, the indexes increased in 46 states , decreased in two, and remained stable in two, for a one-month diffusion index of 88. emphasis added Note: These are coincident indexes constructed from state employment data. An explanation from the Philly Fed: The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing by production workers, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state's index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state's index matches long-term growth in its GDP. Click on map for larger image. Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. This map was all red during the worst of the recession, and all or mostly green during most of the recent expansion. Once again, the map is all green on a three month basis. Source: Philly Fed. Note: For complaints about red / green issues, please contact the Philly Fed . And here is a graph is of the number of states with one month increasing activity according to the Philly Fed. This graph includes states with minor increases (the Philly Fed lists as unchanged). In February, 47 states had increasing activity (including minor increases). The downturn in 2015 and 2016, in the number of states increasing, was mostly related to the decline in oil prices.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 12:19 PM » Rising Home Prices Push Borrowers Deeper Into Debt
    Published Tue, Apr 10 2018 12:19 PM by www.realtor.com
    More Americans are stretching to buy homes, the latest sign that rising prices are making homeownership more difficult for a broad swath of potential buyers. The post Rising Home Prices Push Borrowers Deeper Into Debt appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 11:17 AM » House hunting? Here's how to win a bidding war
    Published Tue, Apr 10 2018 11:17 AM by CNBC
    This spring's housing market is possibly the most competitive in history. Supply is low and both demand and prices are high. Bidding wars are more and more common. Here are the best tips on how to win one.
  • 10:24 AM » Small Business Optimism Index decreased in March, "Difficulty of finding qualified workers" is Top Problem
    Published Tue, Apr 10 2018 10:24 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB): March 2018 Report: Small Business Optimism Index The 104.7 March reading, down from 107.6 in February , remains among the highest in survey history and for the first time since 1982, taxes received the fewest number of votes as the number one problem. .. Job creation remained solid in the small business sector as owners reported a seasonally-adjusted average employment change per firm of 0.36 workers, one of the best readings in survey history. ... Twenty-one percent of owners cited the difficulty of finding qualified workers as their Single Most Important Business Problem, exceeding the percentage citing taxes or regulations. Thirty-five percent of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the small business optimism index since 1986. The index decreased to 104.7 in March. Note: Usually small business owners complain about taxes and regulations.  However, during the recession, "poor sales" was the top problem. Now the difficulty of finding qualified workers is the top problem.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:51 AM » Big banks have found a new way to stay in the subprime lending business
    Published Tue, Apr 10 2018 9:51 AM by CNBC
    Big Wall Street banks have found a way to continue funneling money to high-risk borrowers - by lending to other institutions who make the so-called subprime loans. Wells Fargo, Citigroup and others pushed $345 billion to nonbanks lenders, sometimes called "shadow banks," from 2010 to 2017, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis published Tuesday.
  • 9:40 AM » Fed's Kaplan Says Trade Issues With China Won't Resolve Soon
    Published Tue, Apr 10 2018 9:40 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Fed's Kaplan Says Trade Issues With China Won't Resolve Soon Bloomberg Federal Reserve's Robert Kaplan discusses U.S. and China trade tensions, the U.S. labor market and debt levels. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan said trade issues between the U.S. and China won't get resolved soon and warned of ... and more »
  • 8:36 AM » US Treasury yields rise as trade war concerns abate
    Published Tue, Apr 10 2018 8:36 AM by CNBC
    U.S. government debt prices slipped on Tuesday.
  • Mon, Apr 9 2018
  • 4:39 PM » FDIC to hold May 7 forum on use of technology in banking
    Published Mon, Apr 09 2018 4:39 PM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    On May 7, 2018, in Arlington, Virginia, the FDIC will host a forum, “Use of Technology in the Business of Banking.” Registration is required to attend. The forum will also be webcast live and recorded for on-demand access after the event. The FDIC’s notice states that panels at the forum “will focus on emerging technologies... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 4:38 PM » NJ creates "state-level CFPB"
    Published Mon, Apr 09 2018 4:38 PM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    The New Jersey Attorney General recently announced that the state’s governor will nominate Paul R. Rodriguez to serve as the Director of the New Jersey Division of Consumer Affairs, the state’s lead agency charged with protecting consumers' rights, regulating the securities industry, and overseeing 47 professional boards. According to the AG’s press release, Mr. Rodriguez's... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 4:37 PM » Financial Analyst Says Most Consumers Don't Realize How Their Data Is Used
    Published Mon, Apr 09 2018 4:37 PM by www.npr.org
    The core business model of Facebook and other tech companies has revolved around user data and advertising. NPR's Audie Cornish talks with financial analyst Brian Wieser about how - and if - that could change in light of the Cambridge Analytica news.
  • 2:55 PM » Ray Dalio: Odds increasing for trade wars, cyber wars and 'possibly even shooting wars'
    Published Mon, Apr 09 2018 2:55 PM by CNBC
    Dalio is growing more pessimistic over the trade dispute between the U.S. and China.
  • 2:55 PM » Hotels: Occupancy Rate DownYear-over-Year
    Published Mon, Apr 09 2018 2:55 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 31 March The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 25-31 March 2018, according to data from STR. In comparison with the week of 26 March through 1 April 2017, the industry recorded the following: • Occupancy: -2.8 to 66.4% • Average daily rate (ADR): +3.6% to US$130.81 • Revenue per available room (RevPAR): +0.7% to US$86.90 STR analysts note that performance in many major markets was affected by a drop in group business due to the Easter holiday . emphasis added The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2018, dash light blue is 2017 (record year due to hurricanes), blue is the median, and black is for 2009 (the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels). Currently the occupancy rate, to date, is third overall - and slightly ahead of the record year in 2017 (2017 finished strong due to the impact of the hurricanes). Data Source: STR, Courtesy of HotelNewsNow.com >
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:13 PM » The GOP tax plan means short-term gains for the economy, but federal debt is primed to explode, CBO analysis says
    Published Mon, Apr 09 2018 2:13 PM by CNBC
    The CBO estimated the cumulative deficit over the next decade will be $1.6 trillion larger than previously projected. By 2028, national debt would total 96 percent of GDP.
  • 2:11 PM » Exclusive: U.S. consumer watchdog seeks record fine against Wells Fargo for abuses - sources
    Published Mon, Apr 09 2018 2:11 PM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. consumer watchdog is seeking a record fine against Wells Fargo & Co for auto insurance and mortgage lending abuses that could exceed several hundred million dollars, according to three sources with knowledge of the plans.
  • 1:00 PM » Yellen and other economists say tax cuts are blowing up the budget, not entitlements
    Published Mon, Apr 09 2018 1:00 PM by CNBC
    Last year's aggressive tax cuts are at the heart of a worsening budget situation that will see deficits surge in the years ahead, according to an op-ed penned by former Fed Chair Janet Yellen and others. The essay, published in Sunday's Washington Post, rebuts a study from Stanford University's Hoover Institution that blamed entitlement spending for the nation's worsening financial picture.
  • 12:29 PM » Buyer Traffic Rising as Real-Estate Agents Report Concern Over Mortgage Rates, Inventory
    Published Mon, Apr 09 2018 12:29 PM by www.realtor.com
    Just when you thought the housing market couldn't get any hotter, the prospect of rising mortgage rates had buyers even more frenzied in March, according to a report out Friday. The post Buyer Traffic Rising as Real-Estate Agents Report Concern Over Mortgage Rates, Inventory appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 11:52 AM » Freddie Mac Prices $1 Billion Multifamily K-Deal, K-731
    Published Mon, Apr 09 2018 11:52 AM by freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Freddie Mac Prices $1 Billion Multifamily K-Deal, K-731
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 11:29 AM » Weather Adjusted Employment
    Published Mon, Apr 09 2018 11:29 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Note: Before the employment report is released each month, Chicago Fed economist Francois Gourio provides an estimate of the impact of weather on employment (this has been very useful). After the employment report is released, the San Francisco Fed has a model that shows weather adjusted employment. See: Weather-Adjusted Employment Change This page provides estimates of weather-adjusted employment change in the United States for the past six months. Beginning with the official Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) series on the monthly change in total nonfarm payroll employment, we adjust for deviations of weather from seasonal norms following the methodology described in Wilson (2016). The approach involves estimating the short-run effects of unusual weather on employment growth at the county level using historical data from January 1990 through December 2015. We then use the statistical model to estimate the effect of unusual weather in recent months on employment growth at the county level. We aggregate these county-level effects to the national level, weighting counties by employment levels, to yield estimates of the effect of unusual weather around the country on national employment growth. Finally, we translate these growth effects into level effects using the level of employment in November 2015 as an initial base. The figure and table present three employment change series for the past six months. The first (left) group is the official BLS series. The other two are alternative estimates of weather-adjusted employment change calculated using our county-level statistical model estimated over the January 1990-December 2015 period. The second set of bars is shows the most recent county-level series (also shown in Figure 2 of van der List and Wilson 2016). The third set of bars is an extension of the county-level model that allows for each weather variable to have different marginal effects in each of the Census Bureau's nine regions. For example, an inch of snowfall...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:08 AM » Downsizing your home: How to determine if a smaller house is the right move
    Published Mon, Apr 09 2018 11:08 AM by CNBC
    Downsizing your house could be a good move, USA Today reports.
  • 10:32 AM » Builders' Use of Aerial Drones Takes Off
    Published Mon, Apr 09 2018 10:32 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    About two years ago, NAHB reported that 22 percent of single-family builders had used aerial drones (or unmanned aircraft systems, as the Department of Defense calls them) at least once in their construction businesses. But the times they are a-changing. When we revisited the issue in March of this year, we saw that the percentage of builders using drones had... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 9:56 AM » Goldman: Economic Environment "Becoming Less Pleasant"
    Published Mon, Apr 09 2018 9:56 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius: Less Pleasant The 103k jobs gain in March was well below expectations. Part of the miss reflects a greater-than-expected payback for prior strength in weather-sensitive sectors such as construction and retail. But other industries were also soft, prior months were revised down on net ... While growth is looking softer, it remains far from soft. ... We view the widening of the LIBOR/OIS spread as a technical and mostly temporary consequence of the international provisions in the new tax law, rather than a sign of banking stress. ... Even if the LIBOR move is technical, one might worry about its direct impact on private-sector borrowing costs and hence aggregate demand. ... ... Following President Trump's threat of tariffs on another $100bn of imports from China, the risk of a broader trade confrontation has grown. ... it is harder to rule out continued escalation to a level that does ultimately have a first-order impact on the economy, either directly or (more likely) via tighter financial conditions. In the end, we think the environment is becoming less pleasant but the baseline outlook for the economy and monetary policy hasn't really changed much. Growth is a bit weaker, inflation is a bit higher, financial markets are definitely more volatile, and economic imbalances (especially in government finance) are starting to become more visible.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:29 AM » Where the bonds are: The outlook for fixed income
    Published Mon, Apr 09 2018 9:29 AM by CNBC
    If this is the beginning of a bear market in bonds, it is unlikely to be a very long or painful one.
  • 8:40 AM » US Treasury yields rise as trade tensions rumble on
    Published Mon, Apr 09 2018 8:40 AM by CNBC
    U.S. government debt prices slipped on Monday.
  • 8:35 AM » Treasury Bond Bears Can't Catch a Break With Tariff Threats, Jobs Miss
    Published Mon, Apr 09 2018 8:35 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Treasury Bond Bears Can't Catch a Break With Tariff Threats, Jobs Miss Bloomberg Every time the stars appear to be aligned for government-debt yields to finally march higher, something comes along to reverse that momentum. This time, a three-day streak of Treasuries losses that left yields poised to break out of their recent range ... and more »
  • Fri, Apr 6 2018
  • 4:48 PM » Warren Buffett and Ray Dalio agree on what to do when the market tanks
    Published Fri, Apr 06 2018 4:48 PM by CNBC
    "Though markets are generally rational, they occasionally do crazy things," says legendary investor Warren Buffett.
  • 3:43 PM » Trump Warns US Investors of 'a Little Pain' in Trade Standoff
    Published Fri, Apr 06 2018 3:43 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Trump Warns US Investors of 'a Little Pain' in Trade Standoff Bloomberg President Donald Trump said Friday the U.S. markets could face some "pain'' from the trade standoff with China and other countries but claimed that Americans would be better off in the long-run due to his protectionist actions. "I'm not saying there ... and more »
  • 3:43 PM » Smaller Subprime Auto Lenders Are Starting to Fold
    Published Fri, Apr 06 2018 3:43 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Smaller Subprime Auto Lenders Are Starting to Fold Bloomberg Growing numbers of small subprime auto lenders are closing or shutting down after loan losses and slim margins spur banks and private equity owners to cut off funding. Summit Financial Corp., a Plantation, Florida-based subprime car finance company ... and more »
  • 2:07 PM » Fed's Powell points to further gradual rate increases
    Published Fri, Apr 06 2018 2:07 PM by Reuters
    CHICAGO (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve will likely need to keep raising interest rates to keep inflation under control, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said in a speech on the economic outlook that did not address the economic risks of rising trade tensions.
  • 2:07 PM » Mnuchin: Not worried about China selling Treasurys, 'lot of buyers' for US debt
    Published Fri, Apr 06 2018 2:07 PM by CNBC
    Steven Mnuchin says he is not worried about China reducing its U.S. debt holdings.
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