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  • Wed, Nov 21 2018
  • 3:10 PM » Fewer Homes May Require Human Appraisals, but That May Not Be a Good Thing
    Published Wed, Nov 21 2018 3:10 PM by www.realtor.com
    Fewer in-person real estate appraisals could save home buyers and owners hundreds of dollars, and speed up closings. But it could also pose new problems. The post Fewer Homes May Require Human Appraisals, but That May Not Be a Good Thing appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 3:10 PM » Atlanta Fed leaves U.S. fourth-quarter GDP growth view at 2.5 percent
    Published Wed, Nov 21 2018 3:10 PM by Reuters
    The U.S. economy is expanding at a 2.5 percent annualized rate in the fourth quarter, based on data on durable goods orders and home resales in October, the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow forecast model showed on Wednesday.
  • 10:50 AM » Consumer sentiment hits 97.5 in Nov., vs. 98.3 estimate
    Published Wed, Nov 21 2018 10:50 AM by CNBC
    Consumer sentiment hits 97.5 in Nov., vs. 98.3 estimate<br/>https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/21/consumer-sentiment-final-november-reading.html
  • 10:20 AM » NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 5.22 million in October
    Published Wed, Nov 21 2018 10:20 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increase for the First Time in Six Months Existing-home sales increased in October after six straight months of decreases, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Three of four major U.S. regions saw gains in sales activity last month. Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, increased 1.4 percent from September to a seasonally adjusted rate of 5.22 million in October . Sales are now down 5.1 percent from a year ago (5.5 million in October 2017). ... Total housing inventory at the end of October decreased from 1.88 million in September to 1.85 million existing homes available for sale, but that represents an increase from 1.80 million a year ago. Unsold inventory is at a 4.3-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 4.4 last month and up from 3.9 months a year ago. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993. Sales in October (5.2 million SAAR) were up 1.4% from last month, but were 5.1% below the October 2017 rate. The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes. According to the NAR, inventory decreased to 1.85 million in October from 1.88 million in September.   Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer. The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory. Inventory was up 2.8% year-over-year in October compared to October 2017.   Months of supply was at 4.3 months in October. For existing home...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:52 AM » Townhouse Construction Continues Strong Performance
    Published Wed, Nov 21 2018 9:52 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    According to NAHB analysis of the most recent Census data of Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design, townhouse construction posted continued to outperform other building sectors during the third quarter of 2018. Townhouse construction is set for further expansion given the demographics of renters entering the for-sale market, as well as ongoing land constraints and the growth of demand for... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 9:22 AM » US durable goods orders fall 4.4% in October
    Published Wed, Nov 21 2018 9:22 AM by CNBC
    Orders to U.S. factories for big-ticket manufactured goods fell by the largest amount in 15 months with a key category that tracks business investment showing weakness for a third straight month.
  • 8:39 AM » Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 224,000
    Published Wed, Nov 21 2018 8:39 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The DOL reported : In the week ending November 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 224,000 , an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 5,000 from 216,000 to 221,000. The 4-week moving average was 218,500, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 1,250 from 215,250 to 216,500. emphasis added The previous week was revised up. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 218,500. This was higher than the consensus forecast. The low level of claims suggest few layoffs.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:03 AM » Why Has The Rally in Treasuries Been Limited?
    Published Wed, Nov 21 2018 8:03 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Why Has The Rally in Treasuries Been Limited? Bloomberg Jon Hill, an interest-rate strategist at BMO Capital Markets, talks about Federal Reserve policy, Treasuries, and monetary policies in emerging markets. He speaks with Shery Ahn and Haidi Stroud-Watts on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Australia." (Source: ...
  • 8:02 AM » Even Italy's Most Loyal Bond Buyers Are Getting Cold Feet Now
    Published Wed, Nov 21 2018 8:02 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Even Italy's Most Loyal Bond Buyers Are Getting Cold Feet Now Bloomberg Italy could once rely on a solid base of domestic buyers for its bonds, but even they seem to be turning their backs now. Fresh evidence of the damage done to market confidence came at a sale of inflation-linked securities, historically popular with ... and more »
  • Tue, Nov 20 2018
  • 5:49 PM » Banking Agencies Propose Rule to Increase Appraisal Exemption Transaction Value
    Published Tue, Nov 20 2018 5:49 PM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    The FDIC, Federal Reserve Board and Comptroller of the Currency are proposing a rule to implement a rural property appraisal exemption under the Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief, and Consumer Protection Act (the Act) and also increase the appraisal exemption based on transaction value from $250,000 to $400,000. As we reported previously, the Act amends the... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 3:56 PM » John Burns: Builder Confidence "Feels more like a 50 to me"
    Published Tue, Nov 20 2018 3:56 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Yesterday the NAHB reported that builder confidence declined sharply to 60 in November from 68 in October. Here are some interesting comments on confidence via twitter from John Burns, CEO of John Burns Real Estate Consulting (a premier RE consulting firm). John Burns wrote : "Our survey of new home buyer traffic and expected new home sales from 200+ of the exact same builders. Green is the last 4 Octobers. Hard to believe NAHB that HMI is a 60. Feels more like a 50 (normal) to me." Here is the graph that Burns posted: Click on graph for larger image.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 3:51 PM » DoubleLine's Gundlach: Now is the time for capital preservation
    Published Tue, Nov 20 2018 3:51 PM by Reuters
    Jeffrey Gundlach, who runs DoubleLine Capital, said on Tuesday that investors should focus on capital preservation and avoid corporate bonds as well as Treasuries, against the backdrop of intensifying inflationary pressures.
  • 1:56 PM » Californians left homeless by wildfire brace for heavy rain
    Published Tue, Nov 20 2018 1:56 PM by Reuters
    Heavy rains were due to bring fresh misery to Northern California late on Tuesday, raising the risk of mudslides in an area where people left homeless by the state's deadliest wildfire remain huddled in parking lot encampments.
  • 1:56 PM » Forget Black Friday: This Is the Best Day of the Year to Buy a Home
    Published Tue, Nov 20 2018 1:56 PM by www.realtor.com
    Home buyers looking for a sweet holiday deal should forget about Black Friday. They'll save the most money if they wait until this time of the year. The post Forget Black Friday: This Is the Best Day of the Year to Buy a Home appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 10:32 AM » Wells Fargo's Bory Says 'We Are in a Bond Bear Market'
    Published Tue, Nov 20 2018 10:32 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Wells Fargo's Bory Says 'We Are in a Bond Bear Market' Bloomberg George Bory, head of credit strategy at Wells Fargo Securities, declares a bond bear market, but sees places to hide and "protect your capital." He speaks with Bloomberg's Tom Keene on "Bloomberg Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg) ...
  • 9:50 AM » U.S. housing starts rise on multi-family segment
    Published Tue, Nov 20 2018 9:50 AM by Reuters
    U.S. homebuilding rose in October amid a rebound in multi-family housing projects, but construction of single-family homes fell for a second straight month, suggesting the housing market remained mired in weakness as mortgage rates march higher.
  • 8:12 AM » The Best Days for Deals on Homes
    Published Tue, Nov 20 2018 8:12 AM by www.builderonline.com
    The Best Days for Deals on Homes
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.builderonline.com
  • 8:01 AM » Powell is doing a much better job than Trump, even if rates keep rising: CNBC CFO survey
    Published Tue, Nov 20 2018 8:01 AM by CNBC
    Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has a high approval rating among corporate chief financial officers. The same can't be said of President Donald Trump or his trade advisors, according to the latest CNBC Global CFO Council. Powell's popularity among CFOs comes even as rising interest rates contribute to market volatility and higher borrowing costs.
  • 8:01 AM » As US recession chances increase, the Fed may deliver fewer rate hikes: Poll
    Published Tue, Nov 20 2018 8:01 AM by CNBC
    The Federal Reserve is still expected to raise interest rates again next month and three times next year, but a strong majority of economists polled by Reuters over the past week say the risk is it will slow that pace down.
  • Mon, Nov 19 2018
  • 5:20 PM » Fire Risk: California Drought Conditions 100%, Up From 26%
    Published Mon, Nov 19 2018 5:20 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Fire Risk: California Drought Conditions 100%, Up From 26% Bloomberg The whole of California is a potential tinderbox right now. Drought and dry soil conditions widened to 100 percent of the flame-whipped state from 26 percent a year earlier, providing tinder for this month's Camp Fire conflagration -- one of the ... and more »
  • 4:36 PM » Fed doesn't seem in as much of a rush to raise interest rates as stocks plunge
    Published Mon, Nov 19 2018 4:36 PM by CNBC
    Fed speakers suddenly sound like they aren't in as much of a rush to raise interest rates with the stock markets plunging and corporate bonds wobbling
  • 4:34 PM » Fed Study of Labor Participation Finds US at Full Employment
    Published Mon, Nov 19 2018 4:34 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Fed Study of Labor Participation Finds US at Full Employment Bloomberg The U.S. labor market doesn't have much more room to tighten, according to a new study from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco that examines trends in the number of Americans who are either working or looking for jobs for clues on remaining ... and more »
  • 4:03 PM » California Bay Area Home Sales Decline 8% YoY in October, Inventory up 21% YoY
    Published Mon, Nov 19 2018 4:03 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Here are some Bay Area stats from Pacific Union chief economist Selma Hepp : • Bay Area home sales dipped by 8 percent year over year in October; however, the 19 percent increase from September was the highest monthly increase between September and October going back to 1990. • Santa Clara County and East Bay counties continued to lead the sales declines, while San Francisco activity remained steady on an annual basis. • Sales of higher priced homes -- $2 million-plus -- rebounded notably, up by 24 percent from October 2017 following a September drop. • Inventory grew by 21 percent year over year, with almost half of the increase -- or more than 1,100 homes -- priced below $1 million. • Lower-priced inventory rose by 18 percent - the largest increase following 15 months of double-digit percent declines. • Buyers of homes priced below $1 million are decidedly restrained, with the fewest homes selling for more than asking price since January 2017. • There were more price reductions across the region and at all price ranges, with lower-priced homes posting the largest share of reductions in the past three years.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:05 PM » Sacramento Housing in October: Sales Down 4.8% YoY, Active Inventory up 21% YoY
    Published Mon, Nov 19 2018 2:05 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From SacRealtor.org: October 2018 Statistics - Sacramento Housing Market - Single Family Homes, Sales volume increases, median sales price dips October closed with 1,413 sales, a 9.1% increase from the 1,318 sales of September. Compared to the same month last year (1,510), the current figure is down 4.8% . Of the 1,413 sales this month, 179 (12.4%) used cash financing, 910 (63.3%) used conventional, 230 (16%) used FHA, 92 (6.4%) used VA and 27 (1.9%) used Other types of ?nancing. ... The Active Listing Inventory decreased, dropping 5.4% from 3,236 to 3,060 units.  [note: year-over-year inventory is up 20.7%] The Months of Inventory decreased from 2.5 to 2.1 Months . This figure represents the amount of time (in months) it would take for the current rate of sales to deplete the total active listing inventory. ... The Average DOM (days on market) continued its increase, rising from 26 to 30 from September to October. The Median DOM also increased, rising from 15 to 19. "Days on market" represents the days between the initial listing of the home as "active" and the day it goes "pending." Of the 1,438 sales this month, 65.6% (944) were on the market for 30 days or less and 85.9% (1,236) were on the market for 60 days or less. emphasis added CR Note: Inventory is still low - months of inventory is at 2.1 months, probably closer to 4 months would be normal - however inventory is up significantly year-over-year in Sacramento.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:05 PM » A key Fed official stays the course on U.S. rate hikes amid growing doubts
    Published Mon, Nov 19 2018 2:05 PM by Reuters
    The Federal Reserve is pushing ahead with gradual rate-hike plans next month as it marches toward a more normal policy stance that would keep the economy expanding, one of its most influential members said on Monday in the face of growing doubts in financial markets.
  • 11:45 AM » Bond Traders Face More Volatility as Fed Uncertainty Increases
    Published Mon, Nov 19 2018 11:45 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Bond Traders Face More Volatility as Fed Uncertainty Increases Bloomberg An apparent change in tone from top Federal Reserve policy makers could mean that muted volatility in the Treasury market is coming to an end. That's the take from one bond-market veteran following comments last week from Federal Reserve Chairman ... and more »
  • 11:14 AM » Americans aren't moving to economic opportunity
    Published Mon, Nov 19 2018 11:14 AM by webfeeds.brookings.edu
    The flow of people from struggling to vital counties is one important mechanism for binding the United States into a common market with roughly similar economic fortunes. This process enhances productivity and wage growth, and can play an important role in cushioning regional shocks. However, this mechanism has broken down in recent decades. Migration from…                
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: webfeeds.brookings.edu
  • 8:50 AM » Goldman Sachs believes the US economy will slow to a crawl next year
    Published Mon, Nov 19 2018 8:50 AM by CNBC
    Goldman sees economic growth slowing to below 2 percent in the second half of 2019 as the Fed continues to raise rates and the effects of the tax cut wear off.
  • 8:50 AM » Germany's Weber says draft Brexit deal will not be renegotiated
    Published Mon, Nov 19 2018 8:50 AM by Reuters
    German conservative Manfred Weber, who is running to take over the European Union's top job next year, said on Monday that the draft Brexit deal would not be renegotiated and the ball was now in Britain's court.
  • 8:49 AM » Corporate America's Debt Boom Looks Like a Bust for the Economy
    Published Mon, Nov 19 2018 8:49 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Corporate America's Debt Boom Looks Like a Bust for the Economy Bloomberg Despite strong incentives in the Republican tax plan for American executives to expand, invest and ultimately boost the U.S. economy's growth potential, a lot of the debt companies are issuing appears to be motivated by something else. Non-financial ... and more »
  • 8:16 AM » Existing Home Sales for October: Take the Over
    Published Mon, Nov 19 2018 8:16 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The NAR is scheduled to release Existing Home Sales for October at 10:00 AM on Wednesday, November 21st. The consensus is for 5.20 million SAAR, up from 5.15 million in September. Housing economist Tom Lawler estimates the NAR will reports sales of 5.31 million SAAR for October and that inventory will be up 2.8% year-over-year. Based on Lawler's estimate, I expect existing home sales to be above the consensus for October . Housing economist Tom Lawler has been sending me his predictions of what the NAR will report for 8+ years.  The table below shows the consensus for each month, Lawler's predictions, and the NAR's initially reported level of sales.  Lawler hasn't always been closer than the consensus, but usually when there has been a fairly large spread between Lawler's estimate and the "consensus", Lawler has been closer. Last month, in September 2018, the consensus was for sales of 5.30 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis. Lawler estimated the NAR would report 5.20 million, and the NAR reported 5.15 million (as usual Lawler was closer than the consensus). NOTE: There have been times when Lawler "missed", but then he pointed out an apparent error in the NAR data - and the subsequent revision corrected that error.  As an example, see: The "Curious Case" of Existing Home Sales in the South in April Over the last eight years, the consensus average miss was 144 thousand, and  Lawler's average miss was 67 thousand. Existing Home Sales, Forecasts and NAR Report millions, seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR) Month Consensus Lawler NAR reported 1 May-10 6.20 5.83 5.66 Jun-10 5.30 5.30 5.37 Jul-10 4.66 3.95 3.83 Aug-10 4.10 4.10 4.13 Sep-10 4.30 4.50 4.53 Oct-10 4.50 4.46 4.43 Nov-10 4.85 4.61 4.68 Dec-10 4.90 5.13 5.28 Jan-11 5.20 5.17 5.36 Feb-11 5.15 5.00 4.88 Mar-11 5.00 5.08 5.10 Apr-11 5.20 5.15 5.05 May-11 4.75 4.80 4.81 Jun-11 4.90 4.71 4.77 Jul-11...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:16 AM » Slumping home prices are creating a buyers market in luxury homes
    Published Mon, Nov 19 2018 8:16 AM by CNBC
    The rising inventory and falling prices naitonwide mean that discerning buyers can score deals on high-end property.
  • Fri, Nov 16 2018
  • 6:19 PM » A vote reversed: What is the path back from Brexit?
    Published Fri, Nov 16 2018 6:19 PM by Reuters
    To leave, or not to leave: More than two and a half years since the United Kingdom voted to exit the EU, that is still the question.
  • 5:11 PM » CFPB Revised Loan Originator Rule and HOEPA Rule Guides
    Published Fri, Nov 16 2018 5:11 PM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    The CFPB recently issued revised versions of the small entity compliance guides for the Loan Originator Rule and the Home Ownership and Equity Protection Act (HOEPA) Rule. While some of the most well-known provisions of the Loan Originator Rule are the provisions addressing loan originator compensation, the rule also defines the concept of a loan... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 3:10 PM » Homebuilder stocks are getting crushed, but one analyst says the chart looks so bad — it's good
    Published Fri, Nov 16 2018 3:10 PM by CNBC
    While some investors are avoiding homebuilders amid rising interest rates that traditionally serve as a headwind for the economically sensitive group of stocks, others say evidence is mounting for a bounce.
  • 2:42 PM » Single-Family Permits: Declines in the Midwest and Northeast
    Published Fri, Nov 16 2018 2:42 PM by eyeonhousing.org
    Over the first nine months of 2018, the total number of single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 664,665. On a year-over-year basis, this is a 5.7% increase over the September 2017 level of 628,858. The preliminary results from the New Residential Construction Survey are similar, year-to-date single-family permits over the first nine months of 2018 was, 663,800 which is... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 2:20 PM » Dollar, U.S. yields slide on Fed official's rate comments
    Published Fri, Nov 16 2018 2:20 PM by Reuters
    The U.S. dollar weakened and Treasury yields pulled back on Friday after a top Federal Reserve official said U.S. interest rates were near a neutral rate, while uncertainty over Britain's exit from the European Union clouded currency and other markets.
  • 1:53 PM » Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Growth Edged Higher" in November
    Published Fri, Nov 16 2018 1:53 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Kansas City Fed: Growth in Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Edged Higher he Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the November Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that growth in Tenth District manufacturing activity edged higher, while expectations for future activity moderated slightly. "Firms reported a pickup in orders, production, and shipments in November, following some slowing in recent months" said Wilkerson. ... The month-over-month composite index was 15 in November, up from 8 in October and 13 in September. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. The increase in factory growth was driven by both durable and nondurable goods producers, particularly metals, aircraft, food, and plastics. Most month-over-month indexes rose modestly. The production, shipments, new orders, and order backlog indexes all increased to their highest levels since the middle of the year. The new orders for exports index inched up from 3 to 6, while the employment index eased somewhat . emphasis added
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:25 PM » Trump says China wants trade deal, U.S. may not impose more tariffs
    Published Fri, Nov 16 2018 1:25 PM by Reuters
    U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday that China had sent a list of things it was willing to do to resolve trade tensions with the United States and his administration may not have to impose further tariffs, but he added the situation was still not acceptable to him.
  • 11:56 AM » Dollar, U.S. yields fall on Fed comments; Brexit casts shadow
    Published Fri, Nov 16 2018 11:56 AM by Reuters
    The U.S. dollar weakened and Treasury yields pulled back on Friday after a top Federal Reserve official said U.S. interest rates are near a neutral rate, while continued uncertainty over Brexit clouded currency and other markets.
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