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  • Tue, Jul 10 2018
  • 9:30 AM » The most expensive places to live in America
    Published Tue, Jul 10 2018 9:30 AM by CNBC
    The cost of living in the U.S. can vary drastically from state to state. CNBC has ranked the top 10 states that will cost you the most in 2018.
  • 9:08 AM » The hottest housing market in the country is up 13% and now may be headed for a crash
    Published Tue, Jul 10 2018 9:08 AM by CNBC
    Home prices in Washington state rose nearly 4% in the first quarter, the most in the nation, and more than 13% from one year ago. Experts say the market is now vulnerable to rising interest rates, job losses due to tariffs, and local policies against development.
  • 9:08 AM » Small Business Optimism Index decreased in June
    Published Tue, Jul 10 2018 9:08 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB): June 2018 Report: Small Business Optimism Index The Small Business Optimism Index posted its sixth highest reading in survey history for the month of June, at 107.2, down 0.6 from May . .. Reports of employment gains remain strong among small businesses. Owners reported adding a net 0.19 workers per firm on average, virtually unchanged from May emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the small business optimism index since 1986. The index decreased to 107.2 in June. Note: Usually small business owners complain about taxes and regulations.  However, during the recession, "poor sales" was the top problem. Now the difficulty of finding qualified workers is the top problem.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:19 AM » UK economy perks up slightly as Bank of England nears rate decision
    Published Tue, Jul 10 2018 8:19 AM by Reuters
    UK economy perks up slightly as Bank of England nears rate decision
  • 8:05 AM » Chart of Century Gives Powell Gloomy Glimpse of Trade-War World
    Published Tue, Jul 10 2018 8:05 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Chart of Century Gives Powell Gloomy Glimpse of Trade-War World Bloomberg A multi-colored graphic that's made the rounds at the Federal Reserve hints at what Chairman Jerome Powell could face if President Donald Trump succeeds in throwing globalization into reverse: Higher prices for many goods and potentially faster inflation. and more »
  • Mon, Jul 9 2018
  • 4:06 PM » Wall Street gains; investors expect strong earnings
    Published Mon, Jul 09 2018 4:06 PM by Reuters
    U.S. stocks rose on Monday, helped by bank, industrial and energy shares, as investors looked ahead to a strong quarterly earnings season.
  • 1:25 PM » No Savings? No Problem. These Companies Are Helping Home Buyers With Down Payments
    Published Mon, Jul 09 2018 1:25 PM by www.realtor.com
    Some worry that helping borrowers get down payments could actually exacerbate the housing market's main problem: a dearth of new homes. The post No Savings? No Problem. These Companies Are Helping Home Buyers With Down Payments appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 11:50 AM » Homeowners are sitting on a record amount of cash – and not tapping it
    Published Mon, Jul 09 2018 11:50 AM by CNBC
    Home prices are rising fast, and homeowners are gaining thousands of dollars in available equity to tap, but they are taking out very little. It may be that they don't know how much they have or that they are generally more conservative following the last housing crash.
  • 10:00 AM » Time Needed to Build a Single-Family Home in 2017
    Published Mon, Jul 09 2018 10:00 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    The 2017 Survey of Construction (SOC) from the Census Bureau shows that the average completion time of a single-family house is around 7.5 months, which usually includes almost a month from authorization to start and another 6.5 months to finish the construction. The average completion time in 2017 was the same as it was in 2016, but it was longer... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 9:37 AM » Mario Draghi: Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament
    Published Mon, Jul 09 2018 9:37 AM by www.ecb.europa.eu
    Mario Draghi: Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament<br/>https://www.ecb.europa.eu//press/key/date/2018/html/ecb.sp180709.en.html
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.ecb.europa.eu
  • 9:04 AM » Oil Rigs: "A rebound after last week's fall"
    Published Mon, Jul 09 2018 9:04 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    A few comments from Steven Kopits of Princeton Energy Advisors LLC on July 6, 2018: • Rig counts recovered after last week's lousy numbers • Total oil rigs are up, +5 to 863 • Horizontal oil rigs rebounded, +6 to 771 ... • The big movers this week were the Cana Woodford, -6; and Other US, +7. Expect some reversal of these numbers next week. Click on graph for larger image. CR note: This graph shows the US horizontal rig count by basin. Graph and comments Courtesy of Steven Kopits of Princeton Energy Advisors LLC.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:01 AM » Housing Share of GDP: First Quarter 2018
    Published Mon, Jul 09 2018 9:01 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    With the release of the final estimate of first quarter 2018 GDP growth (2% growth rate), housing's share of gross domestic product (GDP) declined slightly to 15.3%. The home building and remodeling component - residential fixed investment - held steady at 3.5%. Housing-related activities contribute to GDP in two basic ways. The first is through residential fixed investment (RFI). RFI is effectively the... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 8:36 AM » What rate spike? One group of stocks is signaling lower bond yields
    Published Mon, Jul 09 2018 8:36 AM by CNBC
    The yield on the 10-year hit its lowest level in more than a month, and the price action in a number of rate-sensitive stocks suggest even lower rates to come.
  • 8:05 AM » Japan a big seller of German, U.S. bonds in May
    Published Mon, Jul 09 2018 8:05 AM by Reuters
    Japan a big seller of German, U.S. bonds in May
  • 8:00 AM » Sea of red in the Treasury market may signal the bond-buying boom is over
    Published Mon, Jul 09 2018 8:00 AM by CNBC
    There are signs the sea of red in Treasury bonds could signal a bear market rather than offer a chance to scoop up bargains.
  • 8:00 AM » Central Banks Are Ramping Up Their Risk Taking
    Published Mon, Jul 09 2018 8:00 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Central Banks Are Ramping Up Their Risk Taking Bloomberg Central banks are ramping up their risk taking. The days of plain old bonds and gold are over as central banks bet some of their trillions of dollars of foreign reserves on mortgage-backed securities, corporate debt, equities and emerging-market debt ...
  • Fri, Jul 6 2018
  • 4:08 PM » San Francisco house prices explode in the first half of 2018 as tech boom shows no signs of slowing
    Published Fri, Jul 06 2018 4:08 PM by CNBC
    The average price of a house in San Francisco grew by $205,000 in the first half of 2018, according to data from the MLS compiled by local real estate agency Paragon.
  • 3:34 PM » Hutchins Roundup: Low term spreads, rising markups, and more
    Published Fri, Jul 06 2018 3:34 PM by webfeeds.brookings.edu
    Studies in this week's Hutchins Roundup find that low term spreads don't necessarily predict recessions, markups are higher today than in 1980, and more. Want to receive the Hutchins Roundup as an email? Sign up here to get it in your inbox every Thursday. Low term spreads don't necessarily predict recessions The financial press has…                
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: webfeeds.brookings.edu
  • 3:12 PM » Las Vegas Real Estate in June: Sales Down 4% YoY, Inventory down 11%
    Published Fri, Jul 06 2018 3:12 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    This is a key former distressed market to follow since Las Vegas saw the largest price decline, following the housing bubble, of any of the Case-Shiller composite 20 cities. The Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported Southern Nevada housing market looking a lot like the summer weather, GLVAR housing statistics for June 2018 A housing market report released today by the Greater Las Vegas Association of REALTORS® (GLVAR) looks a lot like the summer weather in Southern Nevada, with local home prices continuing to heat up from last year at this time while the housing supply stayed desert dry. ... The total number of existing local homes, condos and townhomes sold during June was 4,194. Compared to one year ago, June sales were down 8.9 percent for homes, but up 18.5 percent for condos and townhomes. ... By the end of June, GLVAR reported 4,335 single-family homes listed for sale without any sort of offer. That's down 16.2 percent from one year ago. For condos and townhomes, the 822 properties listed without offers in June represented a 28.6 percent increase from one year ago. ... At the same time, the number of so-called distressed sales continues to decline. GLVAR reported that short sales and foreclosures combined accounted for 2.6 percent of all existing local home sales in June, down from 6.3 percent of all sales one year ago. emphasis added 1) Overall sales were down 4.0% year-over-year from 4,368 in June 2017 to 4,194 in June 2018. 2) Active inventory (single-family and condos) is down from a year ago, from a total of 5,813 in June 2017 to 5,157 in June 2018. Note: Total inventory was down 11.3% year-over-year - a significant decline - but this was the smallest year-over-year decline in inventory since May 2016. 3) Fewer distressed sales.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:45 PM » Big oil is sowing the seeds for a 'super-spike' in crude prices above $150, Bernstein warns
    Published Fri, Jul 06 2018 2:45 PM by CNBC
    Oil prices could top all-time highs near $150 a barrel because energy companies are investing too little money in new production, Bernstein Research said on Friday.
  • 2:16 PM » Agencies issue statement regarding the impact of the Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief, and Consumer Protection Act
    Published Fri, Jul 06 2018 2:16 PM by Federal Reserve
    Agencies issue statement regarding the impact of the Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief, and Consumer Protection Act
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Federal Reserve
  • 1:39 PM » With New Policy, ACIS Loss Coverage Reaches $10 Billion
    Published Fri, Jul 06 2018 1:39 PM by www.freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    With New Policy, ACIS Loss Coverage Reaches $10 Billion
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 1:15 PM » Females Enter the Labor Force in June
    Published Fri, Jul 06 2018 1:15 PM by eyeonhousing.org
    According to the Employment Situation reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), in June, jobs increased by 213,000 and the unemployment rate rose to 4.0% due to the increase in the number of unemployed persons. The labor force participation rate rose by 0.2 percentage point to 62.9%. The release also indicates that the number of construction jobs rose by... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 11:24 AM » Russia Slaps Import Duties on Some US Goods in Tariffs Fight
    Published Fri, Jul 06 2018 11:24 AM by Bloomberg
    Russia Slaps Import Duties on Some US Goods in Tariffs Fight Bloomberg Russia slapped import duties on some U.S. products in retaliation for Washington's decision to penalize its metals sales, the latest shot in a burgeoning global trade war. Duties of 25 percent to 40 percent of the value of imported products will be ... and more »
  • 10:17 AM » Comments on June Employment Report
    Published Fri, Jul 06 2018 10:17 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The headline jobs number at 213,000 for June was above consensus expectations of 190 thousand, and the previously two months were revised up by a combined 37 thousand. Overall this was a strong report. Earlier: June Employment Report: 213,000 Jobs Added, 4.0% Unemployment Rate In June, the year-over-year employment change was 2.374 million jobs. This is solid year-over-year growth. Average Hourly Earnings Wage growth was slightly below expectations in June. From the BLS: " In June, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 5 cents to $26.98. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 72 cents, or 2.7 percent. " Click on graph for larger image. This graph is based on "Average Hourly Earnings" from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) (aka "Establishment") monthly employment report. Note: There are also two quarterly sources for earnings data: 1) "Hourly Compensation," from the BLS's Productivity and Costs ; and 2) the Employment Cost Index which includes wage/salary and benefit compensation. The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees.  Nominal wage growth was at 2.7% YoY in June. Wage growth had been trending up, although growth has been moving more sideways recently. Prime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation Since the overall participation rate has declined due to cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old. In the earlier period the participation rate for this group was trending up as women joined the labor force. Since the early '90s, the participation rate moved more sideways, with a downward drift starting around '00 - and with ups and downs related to the business cycle. The 25 to 54 participation rate increased in June to 82.0%...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:04 AM » US Trade Deficit Narrows to Smallest Since 2016 on Soybean Exports
    Published Fri, Jul 06 2018 10:04 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg US Trade Deficit Narrows to Smallest Since 2016 on Soybean Exports Bloomberg The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in May to its smallest since October 2016 on a jump in exports of soybeans and aircraft amid the threat of retaliatory tariffs. The gap decreased 6.6 percent to $43.1 billion, from a revised $46.1 billion in the prior ... and more »
  • 9:09 AM » Trade deficit drops to 1½-year low in May
    Published Fri, Jul 06 2018 9:09 AM by CNBC
    The trade gap is the smallest its been since October 2016.
  • 8:32 AM » Nonfarm payrolls increase by 213,000 in June vs. 195,000 estimate
    Published Fri, Jul 06 2018 8:32 AM by CNBC
    Nonfarm payrolls increase by 213,000 in June vs. 195,000 estimate|| 105314413
  • 8:06 AM » U.S. job growth seen strong in June, wages picking up
    Published Fri, Jul 06 2018 8:06 AM by Reuters
    U.S. employers likely maintained a brisk pace of hiring in June while increasing wages for workers, which would reinforce expectations of robust economic growth in the second quarter and allow the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates.
  • 8:05 AM » As tariffs strike, China blames U.S. for 'largest-scale trade war'
    Published Fri, Jul 06 2018 8:05 AM by Reuters
    The United States and China slapped tit-for-tat duties on $34 billion worth of the other's imports on Friday, with Beijing accusing Washington of triggering the "largest-scale trade war" ever in a sharp escalation of their months-long conflict.
  • Thu, Jul 5 2018
  • 4:57 PM » CFPB Addresses Partial HMDA Exemption for Certain Depository Lenders
    Published Thu, Jul 05 2018 4:57 PM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) recently issued a statement regarding the partial exemption from Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) reporting requirements for certain lower mortgage volume depository institution lenders that was adopted in the Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief, and Consumer Protection Act (Act). As we reported previously, the Act exempts depository institutions and credit... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 3:02 PM » Fed balance sheet runoff hits another snag
    Published Thu, Jul 05 2018 3:02 PM by CNBC
    The Federal Reserve's efforts to unwind its mammoth portfolio of bonds continues to run into hitches.
  • 2:11 PM » Fed on lookout for recession but still sees strong economy: minutes
    Published Thu, Jul 05 2018 2:11 PM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON, July 5 (Reuters) - - U.S. central bankers discussed whether recession lurked around the corner and expressed concerns global trade tensions could hit an economy that by most measures looked strong, minutes of the Federal Reserve's last policy meeting on June 12-13 released on Thursday showed.
  • 1:10 PM » China says U.S. 'opening fire' on world with tariffs, vows to respond
    Published Thu, Jul 05 2018 1:10 PM by Reuters
    BEIJING/WASHINGTON (Reuters) - China accused the United States on Thursday of "opening fire" on the world with tariffs set to take effect on Friday, warning that it will respond the moment that duties on $34 billion in Chinese goods kick in.
  • 1:10 PM » Three-story Single-family Homes
    Published Thu, Jul 05 2018 1:10 PM by eyeonhousing.org
    Of the 729,000 single-family detached homes started in 2017, a little over 18,000 (2.5 percent) had three or more stories, according to NAHB tabulation of recently released Census data. The data come from the Survey of Construction (SOC, conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau with partial funding from HUD). Although the SOC has always collected data on 3-story single-family homes, the Census Bureau began publishing information on them only recently. Traditionally, the... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 1:09 PM » June Employment Preview
    Published Thu, Jul 05 2018 1:09 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for June. The consensus is for an increase of 190,000 non-farm payroll jobs in May (with a range of estimates between 144,000 to 212,000), and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.9%. The BLS reported 223,000 jobs added in May. Here is a summary of recent data: • The ADP employment report showed an increase of 177,000 private sector payroll jobs in June. This was below consensus expectations of 188,000 private sector payroll jobs added. The ADP report hasn't been very useful in predicting the BLS report for any one month, but in general, this suggests employment growth somewhat below expectations . • The ISM manufacturing employment index decreased in June to 56.0%. A historical correlation between the ISM manufacturing employment index and the BLS employment report for manufacturing, suggests that private sector BLS manufacturing payroll increased about 13,000 in June. The ADP report indicated manufacturing jobs increased 12,000 in June. The ISM non-manufacturing employment index decreased in June to 53.6%. A historical correlation  between the ISM non-manufacturing employment index and the BLS employment report for non-manufacturing, suggests that private sector BLS non-manufacturing payroll jobs increased about 170,000 in June. Combined, the ISM indexes suggests employment gains of about 183,000.   This suggests employment growth slightly below expectations . • Initial weekly unemployment claims averaged 224,500 in June, slightly higher than in May. For the BLS reference week (includes the 12th of the month), initial claims were at 218,000, down from 223,000 during the reference week in May. The slight decrease during the reference week  suggests a slightly stronger employment report in June than in May . • The final June University of Michigan consumer sentiment index increased to 98.2 from the May reading of 98.0. Sentiment is frequently coincident...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:25 AM » The U.S. labor shortage is reaching a critical point
    Published Thu, Jul 05 2018 11:25 AM by CNBC
    America's labor shortage is approaching epidemic proportions, and it could be employers who end up paying.
  • 11:07 AM » Reis: Office Vacancy Rate increased in Q2 to 16.6%
    Published Thu, Jul 05 2018 11:07 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Reis released their Q2 2018 Office Vacancy survey this morning. Reis reported that the office vacancy rate increased to 16.6% in Q2, from 16.5% in Q1 2018. This is up from 16.4% in Q2 2017, and down from the cycle peak of 17.6%. From Reis Economist Barbara Denham: Showing mixed signs of the current state of the office market, the office vacancy rate increased for the second straight quarter to 16.6%. Heading into the ninth year of the recovery, the office market has never seen the robust leasing activity of previous expansions, maintaining a steady but low level of absorption despite healthy office job growth. Net absorption, or occupancy growth, trailed previous quarters at 2.817 million square feet, down from an average of 5.78 million square feet absorbed per quarter in 2017. New completions fell to 8.07 million square feet, down from an average of 10.9 million square feet added per quarter in 2017. Rent growth, in contrast, was healthier in the last two quarters than in the previous seven as a number of metros had rent growth of 1% or more in the quarter and 4% for the year. The national average asking rent increased 0.7% in the second quarter as did the effective rent which nets out landlord concessions. At $33.07 per square foot (asking) and $26.83 per square foot (effective), the average rents have increased 2.5% and 2.6%, respectively, since the second quarter of 2017. ... In short, the office market statistics reflect the net growth between the haves and the have-nots: larger markets in the West, South Atlantic, Texas, Boston and New York with healthy occupancy and rent growth offset by tepid growth or declines in smaller, suburban markets mostly in less densely populated areas. Much of the growth can be attributed to gains in technology: 9.6% of the added office jobs this year were in the Computer Systems Design industry that should continue to fuel office gains in most of these cities. The next big question is: What city will Amazon select for its...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:13 AM » ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 59.1% in June
    Published Thu, Jul 05 2018 10:13 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The June ISM Non-manufacturing index was at 59.1%, up from 58.6% in May. The employment index decreased in June to 53.6%, from 54.1%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management: June 2018 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in June for the 101st consecutive month, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: " The NMI® registered 59.1 percent , which is 0.5 percentage point higher than the May reading of 58.6 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a slightly faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 63.9 percent, 2.6 percentage points higher than the May reading of 61.3 percent, reflecting growth for the 107th consecutive month, at a faster rate in June. The New Orders Index registered 63.2 percent, 2.7 percentage points higher than the reading of 60.5 percent in May. The Employment Index decreased 0.5 percentage point in June to 53.6 percent from the May reading of 54.1 percent. The Prices Index decreased by 3.6 percentage points from the May reading of 64.3 percent to 60.7 percent, indicating that prices increased in June for the 28th consecutive month. According to the NMI®, 17 non-manufacturing industries reported growth. Respondents continue to be optimistic about business conditions and the overall economy. There is a continuing concern relating to tariffs , capacity constraints and delivery." emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the ISM non-manufacturing index (started in January 2008) and the ISM non-manufacturing employment diffusion index. This suggests faster expansion...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:05 AM » Mortgage Rates Continue Recent Decline
    Published Thu, Jul 05 2018 10:05 AM by freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Mortgage Rates Continue Recent Decline
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
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