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  • Thu, Jul 11 2019
  • 2:52 PM » Powell Says Fed Has Room to Cut, May Have Kept Policy Too Tight
    Published Thu, Jul 11 2019 2:52 PM by Bloomberg
    Powell Says Fed Has Room to Cut, May Have Kept Policy Too Tight    Bloomberg Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell suggested that the central bank has room to ease as the tie between the inflation and jobless rates has broken down.
  • 1:32 PM » California needs to build more apartments
    Published Thu, Jul 11 2019 1:32 PM by webfeeds.brookings.edu
    So much ink has been spilled over California's persistently high housing costs that it has become a cliché. Nearly everyone agrees that high costs are a substantial problem - not just for families struggling to pay rent, but also for companies trying to attract and retain workers, and for the state's economic future. But not…             
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: webfeeds.brookings.edu
  • 1:31 PM » Investor Michael Farr: The Fed could be building a bubble if it cuts rates
    Published Thu, Jul 11 2019 1:31 PM by CNBC
    Investor Michael Farr believes the central bank could be making a mistake.
  • 1:31 PM » Fed's Powell says US homebuilders hit by 'a perfect storm' of Trump's immigration policy, tariffs
    Published Thu, Jul 11 2019 1:31 PM by CNBC
    Powell says homebuilders are suffering from a labor shortage and material costs, aggravated by the Trump administration's policies.
  • 12:22 PM » Stocks rise on firm rate-cut expectations though trade worries loom
    Published Thu, Jul 11 2019 12:22 PM by Reuters
    A broad index of stocks around the world edged higher on Thursday as comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell bolstered expectations for an interest-rate cut, though concerns about global trade tensions capped gains.
  • 11:40 AM » ECB Policy Makers Agreed on Need to Prepare to Ease Policy
    Published Thu, Jul 11 2019 11:40 AM by Bloomberg
    ECB Policy Makers Agreed on Need to Prepare to Ease Policy    Bloomberg European Central Bank policy makers were united in June on the plan to stand ready to provide more stimulus to the euro-area economy, a move that could be ...
  • 11:07 AM » FHFA reverses position (again) on its constitutionality
    Published Thu, Jul 11 2019 11:07 AM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    In an interesting twist, the FHFA has informed the Fifth Circuit in Collins v. Mnuchin, that despite having previously advised the en banc court that it would not defend the FHFA's constitutionality, it has reconsidered its position under the leadership of its new Director and will take the position going forward that the agency's structure... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 9:41 AM » Calif. Gov. Threatens to Fine Cities For Not Building Enough Housing
    Published Thu, Jul 11 2019 9:41 AM by www.builderonline.com
    Calif. Gov. Threatens to Fine Cities For Not Building Enough Housing
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.builderonline.com
  • 9:41 AM » Cramer: Fed chief Powell's rate cut signal is ushering in a 'new leg to the bull' market
    Published Thu, Jul 11 2019 9:41 AM by CNBC
    Investors will be watching for any changes in tone from Powell during the Q&A session as he goes before back to Capitol Hill.
  • 8:55 AM » BLS: CPI increased 0.1% in June, Core CPI increased 0.3%
    Published Thu, Jul 11 2019 8:55 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the BLS : The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in June on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.6 percent before seasonal adjustment. ... The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 in June, its largest monthly increase since January 2018. ... The all items index increased 1.6 percent for the 12 months ending June, a smaller increase than the 1.8-percent rise for the period ending May. The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.1 percent over the last 12 months , and the food index increased 1.9 percent. The energy index, in contrast, declined 3.4 percent over the last 12 months. emphasis added Inflation was above expectations in June. I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:45 AM » Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 209,000
    Published Thu, Jul 11 2019 8:45 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The DOL reported : In the week ending July 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 209,000 , a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 221,000 to 222,000. The 4-week moving average was 219,250, a decrease of 3,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 222,250 to 222,500. emphasis added The previous week was revised up. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 219,250. This was lower than the consensus forecast.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:06 AM » Citi Sees U.S. Two-Year Yield Falling to 1% as Fed Slashes Rates
    Published Thu, Jul 11 2019 8:06 AM by Bloomberg
    Citi Sees U.S. Two-Year Yield Falling to 1% as Fed Slashes Rates    Bloomberg Treasury two-year yields may slide to 1% by the end of 2020 as the Federal Reserve makes a succession of interest-rate cuts to counter slowing growth, ...
  • 8:05 AM » Powell Sounds Dovish Enough to Open Door for a Half-Point Cut
    Published Thu, Jul 11 2019 8:05 AM by Bloomberg
    Powell Sounds Dovish Enough to Open Door for a Half-Point Cut    Bloomberg Nothing seems likely to stop Jerome Powell from cutting interest rates later this month. Not the regional Fed presidents who want to wait, not the strongest labor ...
  • 8:03 AM » U.S. Fed policy-makers debate merit of a repo facility
    Published Thu, Jul 11 2019 8:03 AM by Reuters
    Federal Reserve officials argued the pros and cons of a possible policy tool that allows banks to borrow from the U.S. central bank using Treasuries and other securities as collateral, minutes of the Fed's June policy meeting released on Wednesday showed.
  • Wed, Jul 10 2019
  • 4:00 PM » JP Morgan strategist: Fed is 'fundamentally making a mistake' by cutting rates
    Published Wed, Jul 10 2019 4:00 PM by CNBC
    A top strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management said on CNBC's Power Lunch that the Federal Reserve will be "fundamentally making a mistake" by cutting rates later this month.
  • 2:15 PM » Home Bidding Wars in U.S. Fall to a Fourth of Last Year's Rate
    Published Wed, Jul 10 2019 2:15 PM by Bloomberg
    Home Bidding Wars in U.S. Fall to a Fourth of Last Year's Rate    Bloomberg Here's how rapidly the U.S. housing market has cooled: Buyers are now about four times less likely to face a bidding war than they were just a year ago. In June ...
  • 2:15 PM » New York City Real Estate Savors a Tech Boom
    Published Wed, Jul 10 2019 2:15 PM by www.realtor.com
    Big technology companies are doubling down on New York City by adding millions of square feet in office space and creating thousands of new jobs. The post New York City Real Estate Savors a Tech Boom appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 2:15 PM » Federal Reserve members saw a strengthening case for a rate cut, minutes of June meeting show
    Published Wed, Jul 10 2019 2:15 PM by CNBC
    The Federal Reserve released on Wednesday the minutes from its two-day monetary policy meeting in June.
  • 2:15 PM » Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, June 18-19, 2019
    Published Wed, Jul 10 2019 2:15 PM by Federal Reserve
    Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, June 18-19, 2019
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Federal Reserve
  • 2:14 PM » Wall Street Sees Powell at the Point of No Return on Rate Reduction
    Published Wed, Jul 10 2019 2:14 PM by Bloomberg
    Wall Street Sees Powell at the Point of No Return on Rate Reduction    Bloomberg The everything rally restarted, with stocks, Treasuries and gold bouncing, as investors decided Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell was all but committed ...
  • 12:47 PM » Morgan Stanley Says Fed to Cut Half a Percentage Point in July
    Published Wed, Jul 10 2019 12:47 PM by Bloomberg
    Morgan Stanley Says Fed to Cut Half a Percentage Point in July    Bloomberg Morgan Stanley sees the Federal Reserve cutting its key interest rate by half a percentage point this month, even after last Friday's strong U.S. jobs report.
  • 12:45 PM » S&P 500 hits 3,000 as Powell's comments raise rate cut bets
    Published Wed, Jul 10 2019 12:45 PM by Reuters
    The benchmark S&P 500 briefly crossed the 3,000 points mark for the first time on Wednesday, as bets for a sharp interest rate cut later this month were boosted by Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell's dovish comments.
  • 12:45 PM » Houston Real Estate in June: Sales down 5% YoY, Inventory Up 11%
    Published Wed, Jul 10 2019 12:45 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the HAR: Houston Home Sales Fall Shy of Last June's Record, But Continue to Outpace 2018 Despite continued strength in the Houston real estate market fueled by more robust inventory and low interest rates, June home sales could not match the historic levels of a year earlier, in June of 2018. According to the latest monthly report from the Houston Association of REALTORS® (HAR), single-family home sales were down 3.4 percent. However, on a year-to-date basis, sales are still outpacing 2018's record volume. June marked the first month of 2019 with declining single-family home sales, due to the record-breaking levels of one year earlier. Realtors sold a total of 8,097 units versus 8,385 a year earlier. That translates to a 3.4 percent decline. On a year-to-date basis, however, single-family home sales are running 1.4 percent ahead of 2018's record pace. ... June sales of all property types totaled 9,461. That is down 5.1 percent compared to the same month last year . Total dollar volume for the month declined 3.1 percent to $2.9 billion. "We knew it would be difficult to top last June's record-breaking sales volume, but the Houston real estate market remains strong and now offers prospective buyers an even greater selection of housing than they've had in some time," said HAR Chair Shannon Cobb Evans with Heritage Texas Properties. "Consumers also continue to show interest in rental properties, which had another impressive performance in June. ... Total active listings, or the total number of available properties, climbed 11.0 percent to 45,262. ... emphasis added Still on pace for record sales in Houston.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:52 AM » Fed Easing Bets Firm After Jerome Powell Flags Downside Economic Risks
    Published Wed, Jul 10 2019 11:52 AM by Bloomberg
    Fed Easing Bets Firm After Jerome Powell Flags Downside Economic Risks    Bloomberg Traders boosted the amount of easing they expect from the Federal Reserve this year following the release of written testimony from Chairman Jerome Powell in ...
  • 10:57 AM » Powell says the strong jobs report last Friday did not change the Fed's outlook
    Published Wed, Jul 10 2019 10:57 AM by CNBC
    Powell says the strong jobs report last Friday did not change the Fed's outlook<br/>https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/10/powell-says-the-strong-jobs-report-last-friday-did-not-change-the-feds-outlook.html
  • 10:30 AM » Disorderly Brexit now seen as a 'significant risk' by Irish finance minister
    Published Wed, Jul 10 2019 10:30 AM by CNBC
    Lawmakers in Dublin are stepping up preparations for the eventuality that Britain leaves the European Union with no deal in place.
  • 9:43 AM » White House is likely to send USMCA trade deal to Congress after Sept. 1, sources say
    Published Wed, Jul 10 2019 9:43 AM by CNBC
    The move would set up a vote on President Donald Trump's replacement for the North American Free Trade Agreement by the end of the year.
  • 8:34 AM » Powell: 'Crosscurrents' are weighing on the economic outlook so Fed will 'act as appropriate'
    Published Wed, Jul 10 2019 8:34 AM by CNBC
    Business investments across the U.S. have slowed recently as uncertainties over the economic outlook linger, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday in prepared testimony to the House House Financial Services Committee.
  • 8:10 AM » Fed chief likely to focus on trade-inspired policy shift in testimony
    Published Wed, Jul 10 2019 8:10 AM by Reuters
    The U.S. Federal Reserve over the course of its 105-year history has changed monetary policy in reaction to property crashes, war, financial bubbles and policymakers' gut instincts about where the economy was heading.
  • 8:05 AM » Bond yields creep higher as markets wait for Fed signals
    Published Wed, Jul 10 2019 8:05 AM by Reuters
    Shares were treading water on Wednesday while rising Treasury yields kept the dollar steady, as investors waited to hear whether the world's most powerful central banker would confirm or confound expectations for a U.S. rate cut this month.
  • Tue, Jul 9 2019
  • 2:55 PM » Fed chief faces tough task in Congressional testimony: 'Walking a tightrope over Niagara Falls'
    Published Tue, Jul 09 2019 2:55 PM by CNBC
    Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies before Congress this week, and he is expected to indicate the Fed could soon cut interest rates to boost the economy.
  • 12:00 PM » The housing market is about to shift in a bad way for buyers
    Published Tue, Jul 09 2019 12:00 PM by CNBC
    The housing shortage that fueled competition and resulted in sky-high price gains throughout 2017 and the first half of 2018 is on the horizon yet again. Inventory began to grow in the second half of last year, but supply will soon drop yet again, and could hit a new low, according to realtor.com.
  • 11:59 AM » Las Vegas Real Estate in June: Sales down 11% YoY, Inventory up 89% YoY
    Published Tue, Jul 09 2019 11:59 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    This is a key former distressed market to follow since Las Vegas saw the largest price decline, following the housing bubble, of any of the Case-Shiller composite 20 cities. The Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported Local home prices increase slightly after three-month holding pattern, GLVAR housing statistics for June 2019 Local home prices broke out of a three-month holding pattern to post a slight increase during June, according to a report released Tuesday by the Greater Las Vegas Association of REALTORS® (GLVAR). ... The total number of existing local homes, condos and townhomes sold during June was 3,626 . Compared to one year ago, June sales were down 11.1% for homes and down 12.0% for condos and townhomes. ... At the current sales pace, Carpenter said Southern Nevada still has less than a three-month supply of homes available for sale. While the local housing supply is up from one year ago, she said it's still below what would normally be considered a balanced market. By the end of June, GLVAR reported 7,815 single-family homes listed for sale without any sort of offer. That's up 80.3% from one year ago. For condos and townhomes, the 1,937 properties listed without offers in June represented a 135.6% jump from one year ago. ... The number of so-called distressed sales remains near historically low levels. GLVAR reported that short sales and foreclosures combined accounted for just 2.2% of all existing local property sales in June. That compares to 2.6% of all sales one year ago and 6.3% two years ago. emphasis added 1) Overall sales were down 11.3% year-over-year to 3,626 in June 2019. 2) Active inventory (single-family and condos) is up sharply from a year ago, from a total of 5,157 in June 2018 to 9,752 in June 2019. Note: Total inventory was up 89% year-over-year.   This is a significant increase in inventory, although months-of-supply is still somewhat low. 3) Low level of distressed sales.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:59 AM » US job openings fall in May, amid declines in construction and transportation
    Published Tue, Jul 09 2019 10:59 AM by CNBC
    Hiring dropped by 266,000 to 5.7 million with the biggest decrease in the professional and business services industry.
  • 10:21 AM » BLS: Job Openings "Mostly Unchanged" at 7.3 Million in May
    Published Tue, Jul 09 2019 10:21 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Notes: In May there were 7.449 million job openings, and, according to the May Employment report, there were 5.888 million unemployed. So, for the fifteenth consecutive month, there were more job openings than people unemployed. Also note that the number of job openings has exceeded the number of hires since January 2015 (over 4 years). From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed at 7.3 million on the last business day of May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires fell to 5.7 million and separations edged down to 5.5 million. Within separations, the quits and the layoffs and discharges rates were unchanged at 2.3 percent and 1.2 percent, respectively. ... The number of quits was little changed in May at 3.4 million . The quits rate was 2.3 percent. emphasis added The following graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS. This series started in December 2000. Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for May, the most recent employment report was for June. Click on graph for larger image. Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover.  When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. Jobs openings decreased in May to 7.323 million from 7.372 million in April. The number of job openings (yellow) are up 3% year-over-year. Quits are up 2% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (see light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits"). Job openings remain at a high level, and quits are still increasing year-over-year. This...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:29 AM » The Housing Slowdown May Be Ending: What Buyers, Sellers Need to Know
    Published Tue, Jul 09 2019 9:29 AM by www.realtor.com
    The housing slowdown marked by crazy-high annual price growth, a surge in homes hitting the market, and fewer sales may reverse course beginning this fall. The post The Housing Slowdown May Be Ending: What Buyers, Sellers Need to Know appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 8:56 AM » Fed Chair Powell's job is safe 'at the present time,' Larry Kudlow says
    Published Tue, Jul 09 2019 8:56 AM by CNBC
    The Trump administration is making "no effort" to remove the Fed's Jerome Powell, top White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow said on Tuesday.
  • 8:06 AM » ECB Seen Readying the Pumps for Return to Massive Bond Buying
    Published Tue, Jul 09 2019 8:06 AM by Bloomberg
    ECB Seen Readying the Pumps for Return to Massive Bond Buying    Bloomberg Financial firms including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley are predicting that the European Central Bank's flagship crisis-fighting tool will soon ...
  • 8:06 AM » Powell Heads to Congress With Fed Cut in Play: Testimony Preview
    Published Tue, Jul 09 2019 8:06 AM by Bloomberg
    Powell Heads to Congress With Fed Cut in Play: Testimony Preview    Bloomberg Jerome Powell is likely to leave Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts firmly on the table when he appears before Congress this week, even though the latest U.S. ...
  • 8:06 AM » US Treasury yields tick higher as investors await Fed speeches, auctions
    Published Tue, Jul 09 2019 8:06 AM by CNBC
    Investors have rushed to scale back Fed rate cut expectations following unexpectedly strong gains in U.S. jobs in June.
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