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  • Wed, Feb 13 2019
  • 2:02 PM » Wall Street rises on optimism over U.S.-China trade talks
    Published Wed, Feb 13 2019 2:02 PM by Reuters
    Wall Street's main indexes traded higher on Wednesday, though off session highs, boosted by rising expectations that the United States and China could reach a deal during their ongoing trade talks, with benign inflation data offering support.
  • 2:00 PM » Libor's Replacement Is a Little Too Real
    Published Wed, Feb 13 2019 2:00 PM by Bloomberg
    Libor's Replacement Is a Little Too Real    Bloomberg That means you have to live with the ups and downs of the market.
  • 12:46 PM » Fed's Mester sees limited inflation risk from rising wages
    Published Wed, Feb 13 2019 12:46 PM by Reuters
    Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester sounded a moderate tone about the effect of rising wages on inflation on Wednesday, underscoring the Fed's pivot to a wait-and-see approach on rate hikes.
  • 12:45 PM » Renting the American Dream: Why homeownership shouldn't be a pre-requisite for middle-class financial security
    Published Wed, Feb 13 2019 12:45 PM by webfeeds.brookings.edu
    American politicians - both Republican and Democratic - hold up homeownership as a cornerstone of middle class life. No surprise, then, that housing policy in the U.S. tilts the playing field in favor of homeownership rather than renting. Federal tax policy gives special preferences to owner-occupied housing, through the mortgage interest deduction and capital gains…                
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: webfeeds.brookings.edu
  • 10:09 AM » Home Prices Are the Principal Barrier to Homeownership
    Published Wed, Feb 13 2019 10:09 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    As revealed in a previous post, 58% of buyers actively searching for a home to buy in the fourth quarter of 2018 have been looking - unsuccessfully - for three months or longer. Why is it taking these buyers that long to pull the trigger? The most important reason is they can't find a home at a price they can... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 9:49 AM » BLS: CPI unchanged in January, Core CPI increased 0.2%
    Published Wed, Feb 13 2019 9:49 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the BLS : The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.6 percent before seasonal adjustment. ... The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.2 percent in January for the fourth consecutive month. .. The all items index increased 1.6 percent for the 12 months ending January, the smallest increase since the period ending June 2017 . The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.2 percent over the last 12 months , the same increase as the 12 months ending November and December 2018. emphasis added I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:40 AM » Xi will reportedly meet with Mnuchin, Lighthizer as US and China try to strike a trade deal
    Published Wed, Feb 13 2019 8:40 AM by CNBC
    Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer on Friday, the South China Morning Post reported.
  • 8:03 AM » US Treasury yields higher as China-US trade talks continue
    Published Wed, Feb 13 2019 8:03 AM by CNBC
    U.S. government debt prices were lower on Wednesday morning, as market participants continued to monitor trade talks between China and the U.S. There are also a number of Fed speeches that will be followed closely.
  • 8:03 AM » No evidence that Fed's balance sheet is behind market swings: Mester
    Published Wed, Feb 13 2019 8:03 AM by Reuters
    Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester on Tuesday said she has not seen evidence that the Federal Reserve's shrinking balance sheet has caused disruption in financial markets.
  • Tue, Feb 12 2019
  • 4:58 PM » A record number of Americans are 90 days behind on their car payments
    Published Tue, Feb 12 2019 4:58 PM by CNBC
    The level of serious delinquencies broke past the heights reached just after the financial crisis.
  • 2:13 PM » Red flags emerge as Americans' debt load hits another record
    Published Tue, Feb 12 2019 2:13 PM by Reuters
    Some red flags emerged for the U.S. economy late last year as credit card inquiries fell, student-loan delinquencies remained high and riskier borrowers drove home automobiles, according to a report that could signal a downturn is on the horizon.
  • 2:13 PM » Progressive Lawmakers Take Aim at Landlords With Rent Control, Tax Proposals
    Published Tue, Feb 12 2019 2:13 PM by www.realtor.com
    Progressive lawmakers throughout the U.S. are proposing tighter controls or new taxes on big property owners, stepping up the pressure. The post Progressive Lawmakers Take Aim at Landlords With Rent Control, Tax Proposals appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 1:14 PM » NY Fed Q4 Report: "Total Household Debt Rises as 2018 Marks the Ninth Year of Annual Growth in New Auto Loans"
    Published Tue, Feb 12 2019 1:14 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the NY Fed: Total Household Debt Rises as 2018 Marks the Ninth Year of Annual Growth in New Auto Loans The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit , which shows that total household debt increased by $32 billion (0.2%) to $13.54 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2018. It was the 18th consecutive quarter with an increase and the total is now $869 billion higher than the previous peak of $12.68 trillion in the third quarter of 2008. Furthermore, overall household debt is now 21.4% above the post-financial-crisis trough reached during the second quarter of 2013. The Report is based on data from the New York Fed's Consumer Credit Panel, a nationally representative sample of individual- and household-level debt and credit records drawn from anonymized Equifax credit data. ... Mortgage originations declined to $401 billion from $445 billion, the lowest level seen in nearly four years. Mortgage delinquencies were roughly flat, with 1.1% of mortgage balances 90 or more days delinquent. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. Here are two graphs from the report : The first graph shows aggregate consumer debt increased in Q4.  Household debt previously peaked in 2008, and bottomed in Q2 2013. From the NY Fed: Aggregate household debt balances ticked up in the fourth quarter of 2018 for the 18th consecutive quarter, and are now $869 billion (6.9%) higher than the previous (2008Q3) peak of $12.68 trillion. As of December 31, 2018, total household indebtedness was $13.54 trillion, a $32 billion (0.2%) increase from the third quarter of 2018. Overall household debt is now 21.4% above the 2013Q2 trough. Mortgage balances shown on consumer credit reports on December 31 stood at $9.1 trillion, essentially unchanged from the third quarter of 2018. Balances on home equity lines of credit (HELOC) continued their declining trend from 2009 with a drop of $10 billion...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 12:43 PM » Trump Says He's Not 'Happy' With Budget Deal, But Thinks Shutdown Unlikely
    Published Tue, Feb 12 2019 12:43 PM by www.npr.org
    Congressional negotiators are close to a budget deal, but it provides less than what the president wants for a border wall, and it limits the number of people immigration officials can arrest.
  • 12:16 PM » Fed's Powell says U.S. recession risk not elevated
    Published Tue, Feb 12 2019 12:16 PM by Reuters
    The risk of a U.S. recession is not currently elevated, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Tuesday.
  • 10:59 AM » U.S. small business confidence falls to more than two-year low
    Published Tue, Feb 12 2019 10:59 AM by Reuters
    U.S. small business optimism tumbled last month to its lowest level since President Donald Trump's election more than two years ago amid growing uncertainty over the economic outlook.
  • 10:39 AM » Characteristics of Recent Home Buyers
    Published Tue, Feb 12 2019 10:39 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    A total of 8.8 million households bought homes in the two years preceding the release of the 2017 American Housing Survey (AHS). For its February Special Study, the National Association of Home Builders used the 2017 AHS to analyze trends among recent home buyers. The AHS is a nationally representative survey of residential structures in the US and of the... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 10:00 AM » Best U.S. Job Numbers Ever? Not If You're Out of Work for a Year
    Published Tue, Feb 12 2019 10:00 AM by Bloomberg
    Best U.S. Job Numbers Ever? Not If You're Out of Work for a Year    Bloomberg President Donald Trump said in his State of the Union speech last week that the labor market's strength is evidence of an "unprecedented economic boom," ...
  • 9:25 AM » Cold Front Moves In on the Hottest Real Estate Markets for January 2019
    Published Tue, Feb 12 2019 9:25 AM by www.realtor.com
    Realtor.com's monthly analysis of the nation's hottest markets includes some that are still going strong and others that have slipped from previous heights. The post Cold Front Moves In on the Hottest Real Estate Markets for January 2019 appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 9:25 AM » Small Business Optimism Index decreased in January
    Published Tue, Feb 12 2019 9:25 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    CR Note: Most of this survey is noise, but there is some information, especially on the labor market and the "Single Most Important Problem". From the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB): January 2019 Report: Small Business Optimism Index The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index slipped 3.2 points in January , as owners continued hiring and investing, but expressed rising concern about future economic growth . The 101.2 reading, the lowest since the weeks leading up to the 2016 elections, remains well above the historical average of 98, but indicates uncertainty among small business owners due to the 35-day government shutdown and financial market instability. The NFIB Uncertainty Index rose seven points to 86, the fifth highest reading in the survey's 45-year history. .. As reported in January's NFIB Jobs Report, reports of higher worker compensation rose to the second highest level in the survey's history to a net 36 percent of all firms. In 2018, nationwide wages increased 3.2 percent. Small business owners continue to hire at record levels, with 56 percent of owners reported hiring or trying to hire. However, 88 percent of those owners reported few or no qualified applicants for the positions. Twenty-three percent of small business owners reported the availability of qualified labor as their top business problem emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the small business optimism index since 1986. The index decreased to 101.2 in January. Note: Usually small business owners complain about taxes and regulations (currently 2nd and 3rd on the "Single Most Important Problem" list).  However, during the recession, "poor sales" was the top problem. Now the difficulty of finding qualified workers is the top problem.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:23 AM » U.S. lawmakers cautiously optimistic on tentative deal to avoid shutdown
    Published Tue, Feb 12 2019 8:23 AM by Reuters
    U.S. congressional negotiators on Tuesday were hopeful lawmakers would pass a deal to avert another partial government shutdown, even as it remained unclear whether Republican President Donald Trump would back an agreement containing funds for border security but not a wall.
  • 8:06 AM » Former Fed Chair Paul Volcker takes Trump to task on taxes, trade
    Published Tue, Feb 12 2019 8:06 AM by Reuters
    Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker warned the Trump administration's handling of domestic issues as well as trade talks with China is hurting the United States' long-term prosperity.
  • 8:04 AM » This start-up is bringing fast home equity loans to your smartphone bank app
    Published Tue, Feb 12 2019 8:04 AM by CNBC
    Blend's service is the latest example of a tech start-up working with banks, rather than competing against them, to bring easier-to-use digital services to the financial industry.
  • Mon, Feb 11 2019
  • 1:56 PM » Goldman: When Will Inflation Rise Above 2%?
    Published Mon, Feb 11 2019 1:56 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    A few excerpts from a research note by Goldman Sachs economists David Choi and David Mericle: US Daily: When Will Inflation Rise Above 2%? A View from Our Bottom-Up Model In its January statement, the FOMC highlighted "muted inflation pressures" as a key reason to be patient in making future adjustments to interest rates. This new language further raises the burden on the inflation data to justify any potential rate hikes later this year. Our bottom-up core PCE inflation model now projects a rise to 2.1% by end-2019. ... But the bounce above 2% is unlikely to come until the August report, not available until the FOMC's October meeting. This adds a bit to the case for Q4 as the most likely timing of the next hike.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:55 PM » Only 1 in 8 Redfin Offers Faced Competition in January, Down From More than Half a Year Earlier
    Published Mon, Feb 11 2019 1:55 PM by www.redfin.com
    Just 13 percent of offers written by Redfin agents on behalf of their home-buying customers last month faced a bidding war, little changed from December's record low, and down from 53 percent in January 2018. Two of last spring's most competitive markets—Seattle and San Francisco—kicked off 2019 with fewer than one in five offers facing […] The post Only 1 in 8 Redfin Offers Faced Competition in January, Down From More than Half a Year Earlier appeared first on Redfin Real-Time .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.redfin.com
  • 11:57 AM » As more older Americans 'age in place,' younger buyers struggle to find homes
    Published Mon, Feb 11 2019 11:57 AM by CNBC
    With more seniors than ever aging in place and choosing not to sell the family home, an estimated 1.6 million fewer properties are now available in a marketplace already experiencing a critical shortage, according to Freddie Mac. That stay-put trend is crashing into the rising demand for housing from the huge millennial generation: Fewer homes for sale will continue to put upward pressure on already overheated home prices.
  • 11:27 AM » America's Housing Market Isn't Building Enough New Homes
    Published Mon, Feb 11 2019 11:27 AM by Bloomberg
    America's Housing Market Isn't Building Enough New Homes    Bloomberg If you're looking for good news in the housing market, there's this: Prices aren't likely to crash the way they did in the historic bust of 2006-09. During the last ...
  • 10:22 AM » Oil: Rig Counts Rebounded
    Published Mon, Feb 11 2019 10:22 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    A few comments from Steven Kopits of Princeton Energy Advisors LLC on February 8, 2019: • Oil rig counts rebounded, +7 to 854. Not surprising given last week's big fall. • Horizontal oil rig counts fell, -1 to 758 • The Permian lost 3, other plays were largely flat • Breakeven to add rigs rose to $58.50 WTI compared to $52.70 WTI on the screen as of the writing of this report. • On paper, we should see a big roll-off in rigs next week. Click on graph for larger image. CR note: This graph shows the US horizontal rig count by basin. Graph and comments Courtesy of Steven Kopits of Princeton Energy Advisors LLC.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:36 AM » 'We're not in a good place': Democrats and GOP can't agree about how to stop another shutdown
    Published Mon, Feb 11 2019 9:36 AM by CNBC
    Efforts to avoid another shutdown may fail, a Democratic aide told CNBC on Sunday.
  • 8:38 AM » Italian banking shares jump on 'not so bad news' from the ECB
    Published Mon, Feb 11 2019 8:38 AM by CNBC
    Italian banking shares moved higher on Monday following reports that their capital positions are above the levels required by the European Central Bank - in what analysts have described as "not so bad news."
  • 8:03 AM » Here's why Wells Fargo has sliced its forecasts for rate hikes and bond yields
    Published Mon, Feb 11 2019 8:03 AM by CNBC
    As bond yields fall on global growth fears, Wells Fargo is making some changes.
  • 8:01 AM » Revealed! These Are America's Most Unaffordable Housing Markets
    Published Mon, Feb 11 2019 8:01 AM by www.realtor.com
    Overpaying for housing has huge consequences, so the realtor.com data team decided to dig into the 10 markets where people spend the most on housing. The post Revealed! These Are America’s Most Unaffordable Housing Markets appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • Fri, Feb 8 2019
  • 4:52 PM » Interest Rates on Consumer Credit Increase by the End of 2018
    Published Fri, Feb 08 2019 4:52 PM by eyeonhousing.org
    The latest data from the Federal Reserve Board's G.19 Consumer Credit report show that all non-mortgage consumer credit, i.e., excluding loans secured by real estate, increased 5.0% in December, with revolving and nonrevolving credit increasing 2.0% and 6.0%, respectively. The current outstanding levels of debt, on a seasonally adjusted basis, are $1.04 trillion for revolving debt and $2.97 trillion for... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 4:52 PM » The fate of the market this year could be in the hands of the 'Powell Put'
    Published Fri, Feb 08 2019 4:52 PM by CNBC
    In a Fed connotation, a put would be a point at which Powell would not let the market fall below before he steps in with more stimulus.
  • 4:52 PM » Trade war headlines could get much worse before they get better as the US looks to Europe
    Published Fri, Feb 08 2019 4:52 PM by CNBC
    With little apparent progress in U.S.-China trade talks, the Trump administration could be about to open up a new front in the trade wars by taking on the European auto industry - and that could spook markets.
  • 4:52 PM » As German Bund Yields Head to Zero, They Still Beat U.S. Treasuries
    Published Fri, Feb 08 2019 4:52 PM by Bloomberg
    As German Bund Yields Head to Zero, They Still Beat U.S. Treasuries    Bloomberg Government bond yields are tumbling across the globe. In Japan, the 10-year yield is minus 0.03 percent, the second-lowest level in the past two years.
  • 4:52 PM » ECB's Empty Chair Embarrassment Leaves Draghi in Pre-Brexit Bind
    Published Fri, Feb 08 2019 4:52 PM by Bloomberg
    ECB's Empty Chair Embarrassment Leaves Draghi in Pre-Brexit Bind    Bloomberg Mario Draghi's inbox for personnel decisions at the European Central Bank is looking rather full.
  • 12:53 PM » NYC Home Market to Face Glut After 2018 Sellers Found Few Takers
    Published Fri, Feb 08 2019 12:53 PM by Bloomberg
    NYC Home Market to Face Glut After 2018 Sellers Found Few Takers    Bloomberg Less than half of the New York City homes offered for sale last spring have found buyers, a new study from StreetEasy shows. And as the market's peak season ...
  • 12:24 PM » Older millennials are more on top of their credit scores than everyone else
    Published Fri, Feb 08 2019 12:24 PM by CNBC
    A new poll from CreditCards.com finds that more older millennials (ages 30 to 28) have looked up their credit scores than anyone else, even Gen-X and baby boomers.
  • 12:00 PM » AAR: January Rail Carloads up 1.7% YoY, Intermodal Up 0.5% YoY
    Published Fri, Feb 08 2019 12:00 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators . Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission . Total U.S. rail carloads were up 1.7% , or 21,054 carloads, in January 2019 over January 2018, while U.S. intermodal volume was up 0.5% , or 6,008 containers and trailers. You can split the five weeks of January 2019 into two parts. In weeks 1-3, total carloads were up 8.1% over last year and intermodal was up 5.7%. In weeks 4-5, though, carloads were down 6.6% (including an 8.4% decline in week 5) and intermodal was down 6.5% (including a 9.6% decline in week 5). Clearly, harsh weather at the end of January hurt rail traffic . emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph from the Rail Time Indicators report shows U.S. average weekly rail carloads (NSA).  Red is 2019. Rail carloads have been weak over the last decade due to the decline in coal shipments. U.S. railroads (excluding the U.S. operations of Canadian railroads) originated 1.238 million carloads in January 2019, up 1.7%, or 21,054 carloads, over January 2018. Weekly average total carloads in January 2019 were 247,697, the fewest for any month since January 2018. In terms of rail carloads, January (which consists of weeks 1-5) had two parts. For weeks 1-3, total carloads were up 8.1% this year over last year. For weeks 4-5, though, they were down 6.6%. The extreme cold this year at the end of January in many parts of the country limited rail operations substantially, though it's impossible to precisely calculate what carloads would have been if weather had been more normal. The second graph is for intermodal traffic (using intermodal or shipping containers): In addition to carloads, U.S. railroads originated 1.316 million containers and trailers in January 2019, up 0.5% over January 2018. Weekly average intermodal volume in January 2019 was 263,234 units, the most ever for January. Like carloads, intermodal suffered from the weather. In the first three weeks of 2019...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
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