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  • Thu, Sep 13 2018
  • 10:18 AM » Trade hopes, bumper Turkey rate hike feed the bulls
    Published Thu, Sep 13 2018 10:18 AM by Reuters
    Signs of movement in the U.S.-China trade stand-off and a bumper interest rate hike in emerging market trouble spot Turkey sent world shares higher on Thursday as risk appetite returned.
  • 9:51 AM » California mortgage broker: The 2008 crisis was a 'scary time,' but it made the industry stronger
    Published Thu, Sep 13 2018 9:51 AM by CNBC
    Mortgage manager Brandon Moss remembers the "scary time" when the industry fell to its knees during the 2008 financial crisis but says he was always confident things would bounce back. "That's one of the reasons I stuck in the business."
  • 9:29 AM » BLS: CPI increased 0.2% in August, Core CPI increased 0.1%
    Published Thu, Sep 13 2018 9:29 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the BLS : The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. ... ... The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1 percent in August , the smallest monthly increase since April. The all items index rose 2.7 percent for the 12 months ending August , a smaller increase than the 2.9 percent increase for the 12 months ending July. The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.2 percent for the 12 months ending August and the energy index increased 10.2 percent; these were both smaller increases than for the 12 months ending July. emphasis added I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI. This was a smaller increase than the consensus forecast.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:10 AM » Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 204,000, Lowest Since 1969
    Published Thu, Sep 13 2018 9:10 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The DOL reported : In the week ending September 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 204,000 , a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since December 6, 1969 when it was 202,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 203,000 to 205,000. The 4-week moving average was 208,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since December 6, 1969 when it was 204,500. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 209,500 to 210,000 emphasis added The previous week was revised up. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 208000. This was lower than the the consensus forecast. The low level of claims suggest few layoffs.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:35 AM » Watch ECB's Draghi speak as central bank leaves rates unchanged
    Published Thu, Sep 13 2018 8:35 AM by CNBC
    European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is speaking in Frankfurt after the central bank held interest rates at current levels.
  • 8:15 AM » Petition for certiorari filed by State National Bank of Big Spring raising constitutional challenge to CFPB
    Published Thu, Sep 13 2018 8:15 AM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    A petition for certiorari was filed in the U.S. Supreme Court late last week by State National Bank of Big Spring (SNB) which, together with two D.C. area non-profit organizations that also joined in the petition, had brought one of the first lawsuits challenging the CFPB's constitutionality. Originally filed in 2012 in D.C. federal district... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 7:54 AM » Fed fears it may have been too successful at whipping US unemployment
    Published Thu, Sep 13 2018 7:54 AM by CNBC
    U.S. Federal Reserve officials tout a decade of falling unemployment as among their major victories in fighting the economic crisis of 2007 to 2009.
  • 7:53 AM » Former Treasury Secretary Jack Lew to advise mortgage start-up Blend
    Published Thu, Sep 13 2018 7:53 AM by CNBC
    Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew announced Thursday he will chair the advisory board of Silicon Valley tech company Blend, which powers online mortgage applications.
  • 7:52 AM » European Central Bank holds interest rates steady as economy ticks over
    Published Thu, Sep 13 2018 7:52 AM by CNBC
    The European Central Bank (ECB) left benchmark interest rates unchanged on Thursday, with policymakers likely to argue the regional economy is robust enough to absorb spare capacity and generate inflation.
  • Wed, Sep 12 2018
  • 3:31 PM » Houston Real Estate in August: YoY Sales Distorted by Hurricane Harvey
    Published Wed, Sep 12 2018 3:31 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the HAR: Hurricane Harvey Distorts Houston Housing Analysis Thousands of people are still haunted by Hurricane Harvey's devastating effects as they continue to rebuild their homes and lives. Even now, the storm is affecting the way housing numbers compare August 2018 to August 2017. The traditional year-over-year measurements that the Houston Association of Realtors® (HAR) uses to track market trends have been thrown out of whack because Harvey halted most real estate activity across the greater Houston market during the final week of August 2017 and beyond . According to the traditional, full-month numbers, Houston single-family home sales rose 37.2 percent year-over-year , with 8,358 homes sold in August versus 6,090 one year earlier when Harvey struck the region. HAR isolated single-family home sales for the period of August 1 - 24 since Harvey's effects began to take a toll on the market on August 25, 2017. That analysis showed sales up 7.6 percent in August 2018, with 5,844 homes sold through August 24 of this year compared to 5,433 during the same time frame last year. ... Total active listings, or the total number of available properties, were up 0.3 percent to 41,991 . emphasis added Sales were impacted significantly by Hurricane Harvey. The impact on active listings was probably less significant.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 3:26 PM » American Dream Wasn't Always About Housing, Former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson Says
    Published Wed, Sep 12 2018 3:26 PM by www.realtor.com
    Former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson on Tuesday suggested that government policy penalizes renters at the expense of homeowners. The post American Dream Wasn't Always About Housing, Former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson Says appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 3:26 PM » Dow stock Home Depot and Lowe's are surging, and some see new highs ahead
    Published Wed, Sep 12 2018 3:26 PM by CNBC
    The move comes amid a broader rally in the retail space, and what experts say is a short-term jump spurred by Hurricane Florence preparation. But beyond the boost from the hurricane, some investors see long-term value in the space.
  • 3:26 PM » Fed's Beige Book: Economic Growth "moderate", "Softer Home Sales"
    Published Wed, Sep 12 2018 3:26 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Fed's Beige Book "This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York based on information collected on or before August 31, 2018" Reports from the Federal Reserve Districts suggested that the economy expanded at a moderate pace through the end of Augus t. Dallas reported relatively brisk growth, while Philadelphia, St. Louis, and Kansas City indicated somewhat below average growth. Consumer spending continued to grow at a modest pace since the last report, and tourism activity expanded, to varying degrees, across the nation. Manufacturing activity grew at a moderate rate in most Districts, though St. Louis described business as little changed and Richmond reported a decline in activity. Transportation activity expanded, with a few Districts characterizing growth as robust. Home construction activity was mixed but up modestly, on balance. However, home sales were somewhat softer, on balance--in some cases due to reduced demand, in others due more to low inventories. Commercial real estate construction was also mixed, while both sales and leasing activity expanded modestly. Lending activity grew throughout the nation. Some Districts noted weakness in agricultural conditions. Businesses generally remained optimistic about the near-term outlook, though most Districts noted concern and uncertainty about trade tensions --particularly though not only among manufacturers. A number of Districts noted that such concerns had prompted some businesses to scale back or postpone capital investment . ... Labor markets continued to be characterized as tight throughout the country , with most Districts reporting widespread shortages. While construction workers, truck drivers, engineers, and other high-skill workers remained in short supply, a number of Districts also noted shortages of lower-skill workers at restaurants, retailers, and other types of firms. Employment grew modestly or moderately across most of the nation, though Dallas noted robust job growth...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:19 PM » Bernanke, Paulson and Geithner say they bailed out Wall Street to help Main Street
    Published Wed, Sep 12 2018 1:19 PM by CNBC
    A decade later, the three officials who helped pull the U.S. out of the financial crisis struggle with the choices they made, particularly considering that the public still sees the moves as a bailout for Wall Street.
  • 1:18 PM » Fed's Brainerd backs gradual rate hikes but warns of 'imbalances' that could trigger faster action
    Published Wed, Sep 12 2018 1:18 PM by CNBC
    The Federal Reserve likely will continue its approach of gradual interest rate increases but will accelerate the pace if there are signs that financial imbalances continue to build, central bank Governor Lael Brainard said in a speech Wednesday.
  • 12:01 PM » Fed's Bullard says labor market has 'some room to run'
    Published Wed, Sep 12 2018 12:01 PM by CNBC
    The U.S. labor market is not yet near the point of getting too tight as unemployed people are still being attracted off the sidelines and into jobs, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Wednesday.
  • 11:26 AM » US Household Incomes Rose 1.8% in 2017; Disparities Persisted
    Published Wed, Sep 12 2018 11:26 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg US Household Incomes Rose 1.8% in 2017; Disparities Persisted Bloomberg The U.S. median household income rose in 2017, while the poverty rate declined amid solid growth and job gains in the world's largest economy, Census Bureau data showed Wednesday. Median household income, adjusted for inflation, rose 1.8 percent last ...
  • 11:18 AM » "Income, Poverty and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2017"
    Published Wed, Sep 12 2018 11:18 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Note: Changes to health insurance policy will probably start showing up in the 2018 report. From the Census Bureau: Income, Poverty and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2017 The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that real median household income increased by 1.8 percent between 2016 and 2017 , while the official poverty rate decreased 0.4 percentage points . At the same time, the number of people without health insurance coverage and the uninsured rate were not statistically different from 2016. Median household income in the United States in 2017 was $61,372, an increase in real terms of 1.8 percent from the 2016 median income of $60,309. This is the third consecutive annual increase in median household income. The nation's official poverty rate in 2017 was 12.3 percent, with 39.7 million people in poverty. The number of people in poverty in 2017 was not statistically different from the number in poverty in 2016. The 0.4 percentage-point decrease in the poverty rate from 2016 (12.7 percent) to 2017 represents the third consecutive annual decline in poverty. Since 2014, the poverty rate has fallen 2.5 percentage points, from 14.8 percent to 12.3 percent. The percentage of people without health insurance coverage for the entire 2017 calendar year was 8.8 percent, or 28.5 million, not statistically different from 2016 (8.8 percent or 28.1 million people). Between 2016 and 2017, the number of people with health insurance coverage increased by 2.3 million, up to 294.6 million. emphasis added
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:01 AM » Dalio Says US Two Years From Downturn
    Published Wed, Sep 12 2018 11:01 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Dalio Says US Two Years From Downturn Bloomberg The U.S. is probably two years away from its next downturn, when the impact of the U.S.'s current tax cut-driven fiscal stimulus begins to fade, billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio said. Ray Dalio. Photographer: Simon Dawson/Bloomberg. The next ... and more »
  • 10:28 AM » Regulatory Capture
    Published Wed, Sep 12 2018 10:28 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Caroline Baum writes at MarketWatch: Opinion: An overlooked element of the financial crisis: To err is human There's a name for what happened. It's called regulatory capture, and it means just what the name implies. Regulators become sympathetic to those they are supposed to be regulating, losing sight of their actual function. Granted, some of the financial chicanery was going on in the accounting department, but regulators have access to the information they need to fulfill their supervisory and regulatory responsibilities. All they have to do is ask. This happened, but not at the field level. Here is an excerpt I wrote from the WaMu hearing: "My opinion is the OTS examiner in charge during the period of time I was there did an excellent job of finding and raising issues. Likewise, I found good performance from the FDIC examiner in charge. What I can't explain is why the superior in the agencies didn't take a tougher tone with banks, given the degree of negative findings. seemed to be a tolerance there or political influence of senior management of those agencies that prevented them from taking more active stances " James Vanasek, who was the former chief risk and credit officer of WaMu from 1999 to 2005. I noted: We have seen this over and over. Every time the inspector general's office issues a report on a failed bank, the field examiners had correctly identified the problems - usually going back to 2003 or so - but no further action was taken. Vanasek is arguing this was possibly because of "political influence of senior management of those agencies" - the political appointees in charge. I've heard the same thing from examiners. And from the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission report Crisis • We conclude this financial crisis was avoidable. Despite the expressed view of many on Wall Street and in Washington that the crisis could not have been foreseen or avoided, there were warning signs. ... Yet there was pervasive permissiveness;...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:08 AM » The biggest red flag for the next recession? Corporate debt-to-cash ratios, top economist says
    Published Wed, Sep 12 2018 10:08 AM by CNBC
    Ten years on from the crash of Lehman Brothers that heralded the Great Recession, market watchers are looking for clues as to where the root of the next crisis might lie. Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, sees a giant red flag in corporate debt-to-cash ratios.
  • 9:43 AM » What homeowners bracing for Hurricane Florence can do now to prepare for insurance claims
    Published Wed, Sep 12 2018 9:43 AM by CNBC
    If you're in the path of the massive storm, there are some steps you can take in advance of possible damage that could help make the claims process easier.
  • 9:13 AM » The Fed is trying to finally get back to 'normal' after the crisis, but skeptics doubt it truly can
    Published Wed, Sep 12 2018 9:13 AM by CNBC
    When Lehman Brothers failed, the Fed took extreme actions to head off a collapse of the financial system, and the hangover of those policies could be with them well into the future.
  • 8:43 AM » U.S. producer prices post first drop in one-and-half years
    Published Wed, Sep 12 2018 8:43 AM by Reuters
    U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fell in August, recording their first drop in 1-1/2 years, as declines in the prices of food and a range of trade services offset an increase in the cost of energy products.
  • 8:36 AM » Migration to Low-Tax Metros is Accelerating as More People Looked to Leave Expensive Coastal Areas in the Second Quarter
    Published Wed, Sep 12 2018 8:36 AM by www.redfin.com
    Taxes are three-times lower in the top-10 migration destinations than in the 10 places people are most commonly leaving The post Migration to Low-Tax Metros is Accelerating as More People Looked to Leave Expensive Coastal Areas in the Second Quarter appeared first on Redfin Real-Time .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.redfin.com
  • 8:02 AM » US Treasury yields fall ahead of Fed remarks
    Published Wed, Sep 12 2018 8:02 AM by CNBC
    U.S. government debt prices rose on Wednesday.
  • 8:00 AM » Financial crisis of 2008 is still taking a bite out of your paycheck 10 years later
    Published Wed, Sep 12 2018 8:00 AM by CNBC
    Some 10 years after the global finance system nearly collapsed under the weight of reckless mortgage lending, the U.S. economy is still feeling the impact. And the reverberations will continue for some time, costing every American roughly $70,000.
  • Tue, Sep 11 2018
  • 4:11 PM » Ten Years Gone: Eight Graphs That Show the Unexpected Ways the Financial Crisis Changed the World
    Published Tue, Sep 11 2018 4:11 PM by www.redfin.com
    Ten years since 2008, we examine eight unexpected ways the great financial crisis changed the world. The post Ten Years Gone: Eight Graphs That Show the Unexpected Ways the Financial Crisis Changed the World appeared first on Redfin Real-Time .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.redfin.com
  • 3:10 PM » Proposed House Bill Would Set National Data Security Standards for Financial Services Industry
    Published Tue, Sep 11 2018 3:10 PM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    A new bill introduced by House Financial Services subcommittee Chairman Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer would significantly change data security and breach notification standards for the financial services and insurance industries. Most notably, the proposed legislation would create a national standard for data security and breach notification and preempt all current state law on the matter. Breach Notification Standard... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 2:03 PM » Hurricane Season Bears Down—With 7 Million Homes at Risk and a Federal Flood-Insurance Program Set to Expire
    Published Tue, Sep 11 2018 2:03 PM by www.realtor.com
    Millions of homes across the U.S. sit in harm's way this hurricane season, and the resulting damage could be in the trillions of dollars. The post Hurricane Season Bears Down-With 7 Million Homes at Risk and a Federal Flood-Insurance Program Set to Expire appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 2:02 PM » Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate "Falters" in August
    Published Tue, Sep 11 2018 2:02 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Falters in August The Dodge Momentum Index fell 2.9% in August to 164.1 (2000=100) from the revised July reading of 169.0 . The Momentum Index is a monthly measure of the first (or initial) report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which have been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 164.1 in August, down from 169.0 in July. According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year". This index suggests further growth into 2019.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:02 PM » Investors finally embrace big single-family rental companies a decade after the financial crisis
    Published Tue, Sep 11 2018 2:02 PM by CNBC
    A decade after the housing crash, the institutional play on single-family rentals is thriving.
  • 11:55 AM » Florence May Be One of the Top-10 Most Expensive US Hurricanes
    Published Tue, Sep 11 2018 11:55 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Florence May Be One of the Top-10 Most Expensive US Hurricanes Bloomberg Florence, a Category 4 hurricane now threatening the Carolinas, could cause as much as $27 billion in damages, making it the ninth most-expensive storm to hit the U.S.. The top 10 costliest U.S. hurricanes include Katrina, which devastated New Orleans ...
  • 11:22 AM » Construction Job Openings Rise Again in July
    Published Tue, Sep 11 2018 11:22 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    The count of unfilled jobs in the construction sector increased in July, reaching yet another post-Great Recession high level. The rate of open construction sector jobs also matched a prior cyclical high. According to the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and NAHB analysis, the number of open construction sector jobs increased to 273,000 in July. The prior post-recession high... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 10:33 AM » Wholesale inventories rise 0.6% in July, vs. 0.7% expected
    Published Tue, Sep 11 2018 10:33 AM by CNBC
    Wholesale inventories rise 0.6% in July, vs. 0.7% expected|| 105443939.
  • 10:16 AM » BLS: Job Openings "Little Changed" in July
    Published Tue, Sep 11 2018 10:16 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Notes: In July there were 6.939 million job openings, and, according to the July Employment report, there were 6.234 million unemployed. So, for the fourth consecutive month, there were more job openings than people unemployed. Also note that the number of job openings has exceeded the number of hires since January 2015. From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed at 6.9 million on the last business day of July , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.5 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate was little changed at 2.4 percent and the layoffs and discharges rate was unchanged at 1.1 percent. ... The number of quits was little changed in July at 3.6 million . The quits rate was 2.4 percent. The number of quits edged up for total private (+109,000) and was little changed for government. Quits increased in accommodation and food services (+61,000), other services (+49,000), and educational services (+12,000). emphasis added The following graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS. This series started in December 2000. Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for July, the most recent employment report was for August. Click on graph for larger image. Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover.  When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. Jobs openings increased in July to 6.939 million from 6.822 million in June. The number of job openings (yellow) are up 12% year-over-year...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:00 AM » Ten years after Lehman, spotting the next crisis: McGeever
    Published Tue, Sep 11 2018 10:00 AM by Reuters
    As financial market participants reflect on the 10th anniversary of Lehman Brothers' collapse, the consensus is there will be no repeat of the near-death experience, largely because authorities simply will not allow it.
  • 9:38 AM » Small Business Optimism Index increased in August
    Published Tue, Sep 11 2018 9:38 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB): August 2018 Report: Small Business Optimism Index The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index soared to 108.8 in August, a new record in the survey's 45-year history, topping the July 1983 highwater mark of 108. .. After posting significant gains in employment in July, job creation slowed among small firms in August, perhaps because there were fewer workers available to hire because job openings hit a 45 year record high . Fifteen percent (down 2 points) reported increasing employment an average of 3.2 workers per firm and 10 percent (down 1 point) reported reducing employment an average of 2.4 workers per firm (seasonally adjusted). Sixty-two percent reported hiring or trying to hire (up 3 points), but 55 percent (up 3 points and 89 percent of those hiring or trying to hire) reported few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill. A record 25 percent of owners cited the difficulty of finding qualified workers as their Single Most Important Business Problem (up 2 points). Thirty-eight percent of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, a new survey record high. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the small business optimism index since 1986. The index increased to 108.8 in August. Note: Usually small business owners complain about taxes and regulations.  However, during the recession, "poor sales" was the top problem. Now the difficulty of finding qualified workers is the top problem.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:17 AM » The Fed thinks it's safe to keep hiking rates — it's wrong, market researcher says
    Published Tue, Sep 11 2018 9:17 AM by CNBC
    The Fed needs to slow its roll to avoid "breaking" the economy, says James Bianco, president of Bianco Research.
  • 8:40 AM » Dodd-Frank changed consumer protections after the financial crisis — here's how that's working out
    Published Tue, Sep 11 2018 8:40 AM by CNBC
    Some banking regulations were rolled back this year, and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau - which was created by the 2010 measure - looks different than it did just a year ago.
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