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  • Tue, Dec 4 2018
  • 8:02 AM » Treasury yields continue slide with traders wary of upcoming Fed meeting
    Published Tue, Dec 04 2018 8:02 AM by CNBC
    U.S. government debt prices rose on Tuesday morning as traders contemplated future policy from the Federal Reserve and digested the trade cease-fire brokered between the United States and China.
  • 8:02 AM » Fed's Powell Says Strong Economy Hasn't Reached All Americans
    Published Tue, Dec 04 2018 8:02 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Fed's Powell Says Strong Economy Hasn't Reached All Americans Bloomberg Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that while the central bank has made progress toward a "strong economy" with rising wages, many lower-income workers have been left behind. "The Federal Reserve's mission is to promote a strong economy ... and more »
  • 8:01 AM » The thing the bond market most feared is beginning to happen
    Published Tue, Dec 04 2018 8:01 AM by CNBC
    The bond market sees storm clouds on the horizon, despite the trade ceasefire between President Donald Trump and China.
  • Mon, Dec 3 2018
  • 4:59 PM » Year-to-Date Performance: Employment, Vehicle Sales, New Home Sales
    Published Mon, Dec 03 2018 4:59 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Here are three tables showing year-to-date performance for three key economic metrics: Employment, Vehicle Sales, and New Home Sales. Each table shows measurements through the most recent report (October), full year, and percent change from the previous year. Employment growth has picked up in 2017 and will likely be the 3rd best year since the great recession.  Vehicle sales are mostly moving sideways year-over-year at a high level, and new home sales are up slightly. Note: All data is based on monthly NSA data.  Employment from the BLS, vehicle sales from BEA, and new home sales from Census. Employment Gains (000s) Year Through October Full Year YoY Change 2010 851 1053 2011 1744 2090 98.5% 2012 1778 2151 2.9% 2013 1987 2301 7.0% 2014 2447 3005 30.6% 2015 2214 2712 -9.8% 2016 1992 2344 -13.6% 2017 1797 2188 -6.7% 2018 2125 NA 18.3% 1 1 Year-over-year change for 2018 based on data through October. Vehicle Sales (000s) Year Through October Full Year YoY Change 2010 9,545 11,555 2011 10,505 12,742 10.3% 2012 11,946 14,433 13.3% 2013 12,939 15,530 7.6% 2014 13,662 16,452 5.9% 2015 14,443 17,396 5.7% 2016 14,414 17,465 0.4% 2017 14,151 17,135 -1.9% 2018 14,205 NA 0.4% 1 1 Year-over-year change for 2018 based on data through October. New Home Sales (000s) Year Through October Full Year YoY Change 2010 279 322 2011 258 305 -5.3% 2012 313 369 21.0% 2013 366 429 16.3% 2014 373 439 2.3% 2015 427 501 14.1% 2016 482 561 12.0% 2017 518 613 9.3% 2018 533 NA 2.9% 1 1 Year-over-year change for 2018 based on data through October.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 3:33 PM » Wednesday's US Economy Data Delayed, Powell Hearing Canceled
    Published Mon, Dec 03 2018 3:33 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Wednesday's US Economy Data Delayed, Powell Hearing Canceled Bloomberg The U.S. national day of mourning for President George H.W. Bush on Wednesday has delayed the release of public and private economic data as well as widely anticipated testimony to lawmakers by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Here are the ... and more »
  • 2:22 PM » Quantitative easing lowered interest rates. Why isn't quantitative tightening lifting them more?
    Published Mon, Dec 03 2018 2:22 PM by webfeeds.brookings.edu
    The Federal Reserve bought trillions of dollars of bonds and other securities from 2008 to 2014 in what's been dubbed "quantitative easing" (QE). Economists from the Fed and elsewhere have estimated that the asset purchases lowered long-term interest rates by about 1.5 percentage points. But when the Fed began shrinking its portfolio in the summer…                
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: webfeeds.brookings.edu
  • 2:22 PM » December is usually the slowest month for home sales, but that might not be the case this year
    Published Mon, Dec 03 2018 2:22 PM by CNBC
    Rates are now about a full percentage point higher than they were a year ago, hovering now just below 5 percent. They are expected to move higher in 2019, however.
  • 12:20 PM » U.S. credit demand declines, rejection rates rise: NY Fed survey
    Published Mon, Dec 03 2018 12:20 PM by Reuters
    Americans' demand for credit declined over the previous year as expected, as mortgage interest rates rose, while the percentage of approved applications also ticked lower compared to a year ago, a survey from the New York Federal Reserve showed on Monday.
  • 10:51 AM » Fed's Quarles: Fed watching data but will not react to 'every wavering'
    Published Mon, Dec 03 2018 10:51 AM by CNBC
    Federal Reserve vice chairman Randal Quarles said the Fed's increasing "data dependence" does not mean it will react to every change, but only to "significant changes in direction."
  • 10:29 AM » Most Homes For-Sale are Unaffordable to Most People
    Published Mon, Dec 03 2018 10:29 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    Affordability continues to be a serious constraint for prospective home buyers. One way to find out buyers' perception about this issue is to ask them to estimate the share of all homes for-sale in their markets they are able to afford. A strong majority of 79% say they can afford fewer than half of the homes available. This in turn... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 10:13 AM » ISM Manufacturing index increased to 59.3 in November
    Published Mon, Dec 03 2018 10:13 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in November. The PMI was at 59.3% in November, up from 57.7% in October. The employment index was at 58.4%, up from 56.8% last month, and the new orders index was at 62.1%, up from 57.4%. From the Institute for Supply Management: November 2018 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in November, and the overall economy grew for the 115th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: " The November PMI® registered 59.3 percent , an increase of 1.6 percentage points from the October reading of 57.7 percent. The New Orders Index registered 62.1 percent , an increase of 4.7 percentage points from the October reading of 57.4 percent. The Production Index registered 60.6 percent, a 0.7 percentage-point increase compared to the October reading of 59.9 percent. The Employment Index registered 58.4 percent , an increase of 1.6 percentage points from the October reading of 56.8 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 62.5 percent, a 1.3-percentage point decrease from the October reading of 63.8 percent. The Inventories Index registered 52.9 percent, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from the October reading of 50.7 percent. The Prices Index registered 60.7 percent, a 10.9-percentage point decrease from the October reading of 71.6 percent, indicating higher raw materials prices for the 33rd consecutive month. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index. This was above expectations of 57.2%, and suggests manufacturing expanded at a faster pace in November than in October.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:50 AM » Fed's Clarida Says US Economy in Good Shape, Outlook Solid
    Published Mon, Dec 03 2018 9:50 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Fed's Clarida Says US Economy in Good Shape, Outlook Solid Bloomberg Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida discusses the state of the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. He speaks with Bloomberg's Tom Keene on "Bloomberg Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg) ...
  • 9:24 AM » The Day After Christmas is the Best Day to Buy a House
    Published Mon, Dec 03 2018 9:24 AM by www.builderonline.com
    The Day After Christmas is the Best Day to Buy a House
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.builderonline.com
  • 8:22 AM » Mnuchin says Trump 'liked' Fed chief Powell's speech that boosted markets last week
    Published Mon, Dec 03 2018 8:22 AM by CNBC
    Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Monday he expects President Donald Trump was pleased with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech on interest rates last week. Speaking on Wednesday at The Economic Club of New York, Powell appeared to walk back comments on Oct. 3 that rates were a long way from so-called neutral. That sparked a strong rally on...
  • 7:58 AM » Fed's Clarida says the current framework is serving the Fed well
    Published Mon, Dec 03 2018 7:58 AM by CNBC
    The Federal Reserve's current methods for meeting its inflation and employment goals are working well, though an upcoming review may come up with ways to "refine" them, Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida said on Monday.
  • 7:57 AM » The Housing Slowdown Is Here—and These 10 Cities Are Getting Hit Hardest
    Published Mon, Dec 03 2018 7:57 AM by www.realtor.com
    The real estate market has begun to slow down-and house hunters have taken note. We found the top 10 markets that are slowing the most. The post The Housing Slowdown Is Here-and These 10 Cities Are Getting Hit Hardest appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • Fri, Nov 30 2018
  • 4:06 PM » NAR 2019 Home Price Forecast Correction
    Published Fri, Nov 30 2018 4:06 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    In the Pending Home Sales release yesterday, the NAR wrote : Looking ahead to next year, existing sales are forecast to decline 0.4 percent and home prices to drop roughly 2.5 percent. Forecasting a price decline would be huge news! However that was a typo in the release. As Andrea Riquier at MarketWatch noted on the NAR forecast (after contacting the NAR): Home prices WILL NOT DECLINE 2.5%, price appreciation will decline to a 2.5% annual rate. This is still lower than the 3.1% median home price increase in 2019 that NAR economist Lawrence Yun was forecasting a few weeks.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:56 PM » Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Slower House Price Gains in October
    Published Fri, Nov 30 2018 1:56 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The Case-Shiller house price indexes for September were released this week. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close. From Aaron Terrazas at Zillow: September Case-Shiller Results and October Forecast: A Slow Return to the Push-Pull of a Normal Market The U.S. National S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index - which tracks home prices - rose 5.5 percent in September from a year earlier, in line with Zillow's forecast last month. ... Zillow forecasts an even slower 5.4 percent annual gain for October. The Zillow forecast is for the year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National index to be smaller in September than in August as house price growth slows.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:31 PM » One Section of the US Yield Curve May Invert as Soon as Today
    Published Fri, Nov 30 2018 1:31 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg One Section of the US Yield Curve May Invert as Soon as Today Bloomberg As bond traders scale back Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations, one section of the U.S. yield curve is on a fast track to inversion. The spread between 3-year and 5-year Treasury yields shrank to less than 0.1 basis point on Friday, the smallest gap ...
  • 12:57 PM » One Week Extension of Flood Insurance Program
    Published Fri, Nov 30 2018 12:57 PM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    As previously reported, the National Flood Insurance Program was scheduled to expire on November 30, 2018. Once again, Congress has kicked the can down the road by authorizing a temporary extension of the Program, rather than adopting a long-term, sensible reform of the Program. This time the kick was short, as the extension is only... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 12:44 PM » Fed adds its voice to rising fears about retirement investor core bond holdings
    Published Fri, Nov 30 2018 12:44 PM by CNBC
    The Federal Reserve voiced strong concerns this week about the amount of risky debt in the investment-grade bond market. It is not just the deterioration in credit of iconic companies like GE, but a record level of debt in the lowest tier of investment grade that should worry investors nearing or in retirement who use bond funds and ETFs to protect their wealth and generate income.
  • 12:16 PM » Multifamily Construction Remains a Built-for-Rent Market
    Published Fri, Nov 30 2018 12:16 PM by eyeonhousing.org
    An elevated rental share of multifamily construction is holding typical apartment size below levels seen during the pre-Great Recession period. As multifamily developers build more for-sale housing units in the years ahead, the average size of multifamily homes is likely to rise. According to third quarter 2018 data, the average per unit square footage of multifamily housing construction starts was 1,125, off from the... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 11:09 AM » Chicago PMI Increased in November
    Published Fri, Nov 30 2018 11:09 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Chicago PMI: Chicago Business Barometer Surges to 66.4 in November The MNI Chicago Business Barometer surged to an 11-month high of 66.4 in November , up 8.0 points from October's 58.4. Business activity recorded its most impressive performance so far this year in November, ending a three-month run of declines. Although broad-based, with increases across all five of the Barometer's subcomponents, resurgent orders, solid output and higher unfinished orders were the month's key drivers. ... Building on October's rise, the Employment indicator strengthened further in November, hitting a three-month high and moving further clear of the neutral-50 mark. "The MNI Chicago Business Barometer clipped a run of three consecutive declines in emphatic style in November, boosted primarily by resurgent orders - stronger than typically seen at this time of year and enough to push the Barometer to its best level since December," said Jamie Satchi, Economist at MNI Indicators. "However, many firms reported seeing the effects of higher China tariffs on their invoices for the first time, and voiced concern that business could be stifled going forward ," he added. emphasis added This was well above the consensus forecast of 58.0.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:26 AM » Powell shouldn't follow Greenspan's example at Fed, veteran economist says
    Published Fri, Nov 30 2018 10:26 AM by CNBC
    Stocks in the U.S. ripped higher Wednesday after Powell said that the Fed funds rate was now just below the range of estimates for neutral.
  • 8:26 AM » Canada, Mexico, U.S. sign new trade deal
    Published Fri, Nov 30 2018 8:26 AM by Reuters
    U.S. President Donald Trump, Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexico's President Enrique Pena Nieto signed a new trade agreement on Friday known as the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).
  • 8:06 AM » US Treasury yields lower amid dovish Fed comments; G-20 summit in focus
    Published Fri, Nov 30 2018 8:06 AM by CNBC
    U.S. government debt prices rose on the final trading day of the month as investors digested dovish sentiment from the Federal Reserve and looked ahead to the upcoming G-20 summit in Argentina.
  • 8:05 AM » How Far to Fed Neutral?
    Published Fri, Nov 30 2018 8:05 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg How Far to Fed Neutral? Bloomberg Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell fueled bets on risk assets after saying the central bank is "just below the broad range of estimates" for a neutral level of interest rates. But he didn't say where policy makers should halt their rate-hike ... and more »
  • Thu, Nov 29 2018
  • 4:47 PM » Homebuilders ETF Sees Massive Volume on Powell's Dovish Comments
    Published Thu, Nov 29 2018 4:47 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Homebuilders ETF Sees Massive Volume on Powell's Dovish Comments Bloomberg What do you get when you cross an eight-day winning streak with seemingly dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell? How about some serious action in an exchange-traded fund stuffed with homebuilder stocks. Investors poured ...
  • 3:56 PM » The Fed is still tweaking its balance sheet unwind
    Published Thu, Nov 29 2018 3:56 PM by CNBC
    In a process begun in October 2017, the bank is decreasing the size of its bond portfolio, which grew to more than $4.5 trillion as part of an effort to drive down mortgage rates and lift economic growth.
  • 2:08 PM » Mortgage rates could head lower after Powell comment drives bond yield to important level
    Published Thu, Nov 29 2018 2:08 PM by CNBC
    With the Fed sounding more dovish, the bond market is now signaling that rates for mortgages and other loans could be lower in the near future than what was expected just a few days ago.
  • 2:07 PM » Fed points to December rate hike but is worried about tariffs and debt
    Published Thu, Nov 29 2018 2:07 PM by CNBC
    The Federal Open Market Committee released minutes Wednesday from its Nov. 7-8 meeting at which it decided to hold the central bank's benchmark rate steady at a range of 2 percent to 2.25 percent.
  • 1:17 PM » Trump says 'long way to go' on tariffs and China
    Published Thu, Nov 29 2018 1:17 PM by Reuters
    U.S. President Trump said on Thursday said there was "a long way to go" on tariffs with China and urged companies to build products in the United States to avoid them.
  • 1:17 PM » Rising US Jobless Claims Are Starting to Worry Some Economists
    Published Thu, Nov 29 2018 1:17 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Rising US Jobless Claims Are Starting to Worry Some Economists Bloomberg The rising number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits is starting to worry some economists, though the latest increases came during holiday periods typically associated with data volatility. Initial jobless claims rose 10,000 last week to 234 ... and more »
  • 1:17 PM » Deutsche Bank Warns Powell's Remarks Were 'Misunderstood' by Markets
    Published Thu, Nov 29 2018 1:17 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Deutsche Bank Warns Powell's Remarks Were 'Misunderstood' by Markets Bloomberg Skeptics are warning U.S. stock investors they overdid it with their exuberant reaction to comments from Jerome Powell on Wednesday. Traders read too much into the Federal Reserve chairman's comments that suggested interest rates may not need to go ...
  • 10:02 AM » Pending home sales drop 2.6% in October for 10th straight month of annual declines
    Published Thu, Nov 29 2018 10:02 AM by CNBC
    Expectations for a stronger housing market in October fell short. Pending homes sales, a measure of signed contracts to buy existing homes, fell 2.6 percent compared with September, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales were down a steeper 6.7 percent compared with October 2017. That makes the tenth straight month of annual declines. This follows another disappointing report on sales of newly built homes in October, which also measure signed contracts.
  • 9:34 AM » Luxury Home Prices Up 3.2 Percent Annually in the Third Quarter, the Lowest Growth Rate in Nearly Two Years
    Published Thu, Nov 29 2018 9:34 AM by www.redfin.com
    Supply of homes priced $2 million or more fell 6 percent from a year earlier, as inventory overall inched up. Luxury home prices rose 3.2 percent year over year to an average of $1.7 million in the third quarter of 2018. This is the lowest growth rate since the fourth quarter of 2016, when prices […] The post Luxury Home Prices Up 3.2 Percent Annually in the Third Quarter, the Lowest Growth Rate in Nearly Two Years appeared first on Redfin Real-Time .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.redfin.com
  • 9:09 AM » Personal Income increased 0.5% in October, Spending increased 0.6%
    Published Thu, Nov 29 2018 9:09 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for October: Personal income increased $84.9 billion (0.5 percent) in October according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $81.7 billion (0.5 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $86.9 billion (0.6 percent). Real DPI increased 0.3 percent in October and Real PCE increased 0.4 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.2 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. The October PCE price index increased 2.0 percent year-over-year and the October PCE price index, excluding food and energy, also increased 1.8 percent year-over-year. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through October 2018 (2012 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change . Click on graph for larger image. The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE. The increase in personal income, and the increase in PCE, were both above expectations.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:54 AM » Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 234,000
    Published Thu, Nov 29 2018 8:54 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The DOL reported : In the week ending November 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 234,000 , an increase of 10,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 224,000. The 4-week moving average was 223,250, an increase of 4,750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 218,500. emphasis added The previous week was unrevised. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 223,250. This was higher than the consensus forecast, and initial claims have increased recently. However the low level of claims suggest few layoffs.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:04 AM » US 10-Year Yield Approaches 3% as Rate Bets Return to Earth
    Published Thu, Nov 29 2018 8:04 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg US 10-Year Yield Slides Below 3% as Rate Bets Return to Earth Bloomberg Treasuries rallied, pushing 10-year yields below 3 percent for the first time since September, amid speculation prospects are diminishing for global interest-rate increases next year. European bonds also gained. U.S. money-market pricing showed traders ... and more »
  • 8:04 AM » How a Dovish Tone at the Fed Sounded Across Markets
    Published Thu, Nov 29 2018 8:04 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg How a Dovish Tone at the Fed Sounded Across Markets Bloomberg From emerging-market bonds to developed-nation currencies, the ripples from Jerome Powell's comments on interest rates barreled through markets in seconds. The Federal Reserve chairman, who warned in October that monetary policy was "a long way ... and more »
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