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  • Fri, Nov 15 2019
  • 9:29 AM » Industrial Production Decreased in October
    Published Fri, Nov 15 2019 9:29 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production fell 0.8 percent in October after declining 0.3 percent in September . Manufacturing production decreased 0.6 percent in October. Much of this decline was due to a drop of 7.1 percent in the output of motor vehicles and parts that resulted from a strike at a major manufacturer of motor vehicles . The decreases for total industrial production, manufacturing, and motor vehicles and parts were their largest since May 2018, April 2019, and January 2019, respectively. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, the index for total industrial production moved down 0.5 percent , and the index for manufacturing edged down 0.1 percent. Mining production decreased 0.7 percent, while utilities output fell 2.6 percent. At 108.7 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 1.1 percent lower in October than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 0.8 percentage point in October to 76.7 percent, a rate that is 3.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972-2018) average. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up 10.0 percentage points from the record low set in June 2009 (the series starts in 1967). Capacity utilization at 76.7% is 3.1% below the average from 1972 to 2017 and below the pre-recession level of 80.8% in December 2007. Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change. The second graph shows industrial production since 1967. Industrial production decreased in October to  108.7. This is 25% above the recession low, and 3.2% above the pre-recession peak. The change in industrial production and increase in capacity utilization were below consensus expectations.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:34 AM » Retail sales rebound in October, rising 0.3% vs 0.2% expected
    Published Fri, Nov 15 2019 8:34 AM by CNBC
    Retail sales rebound in October, rising 0.3% vs 0.2% expected<br/>https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/15/retail-sales-october-2019.html
  • 8:26 AM » Global debt to top record $255 trillion by year's end
    Published Fri, Nov 15 2019 8:26 AM by Reuters
    Global debt is on course to end 2019 at a record high of more than $255 trillion, the Institute of International Finance estimated on Friday -- nearly $32,500 for each of the 7.7 billion people on planet.
  • 8:03 AM » Ross says U.S., China to discuss trade deal in call on Friday
    Published Fri, Nov 15 2019 8:03 AM by Reuters
    U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said on Friday there would be a call between U.S. and Chinese officials later in the day as both sides continue to hammer out a phase one trade pact, but added U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports could still start Dec. 15.
  • Thu, Nov 14 2019
  • 3:27 PM » Fed's Kaplan says strong consumer will help the U.S. economy avoid recession in 2020
    Published Thu, Nov 14 2019 3:27 PM by Reuters
    Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan said he does not expect the U.S. economy to enter a recession next year, and he was optimistic that the strong consumer can help the U.S. economy overcome potential headwinds.
  • 3:27 PM » Fed's Bullard: 'More normal' yield curve bullish sign for 2020
    Published Thu, Nov 14 2019 3:27 PM by Reuters
    The way U.S. bond markets responded to recent Federal Reserve interest rate cuts could be "bullish" for the economy, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said on Thursday, adding he was ready to keep rates on hold and see how it plays out.
  • 2:35 PM » Fed not focused on daily ups, downs of trade deal: Williams
    Published Thu, Nov 14 2019 2:35 PM by Reuters
    The U.S. Federal Reserve will not make policy based on day to day developments in U.S.-China trade policy or on Britain's exit from the European Union, a U.S. central banker said on Thursday, in part because businesses do not make their decisions that way either.
  • 2:35 PM » Fed's Powell: No 'booming' in U.S. economy that threatens to go bust
    Published Thu, Nov 14 2019 2:35 PM by Reuters
    Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday said the risk of the U.S. economy facing a dramatic bust is remote, partly because the record-long expansion is notable for not having pockets of overheating activity.
  • 2:34 PM » Looking back: "The Cupboard is Full"
    Published Thu, Nov 14 2019 2:34 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Three years ago I wrote The Cupboard is Full "The bottom line is the cupboard is full. The expansion should continue for some time." This is one in a series of post in late 2016 - post election - explaining why I thought the expansion should continue, even though I was extremely disappointed about the outcome of the election. I'm still not on recession watch, but the cupboard isn't quite as full (I'll have more to say on this in the coming weeks).
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:31 PM » U.S. fines former Deutsche Bank subprime chief over alleged mortgage fraud
    Published Thu, Nov 14 2019 2:31 PM by Reuters
    A former head of subprime trading at Deutsche Bank AG will pay a $500,000 civil fine to resolve charges he misled investors about the quality of loans backing $1.42 billion of residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) issued before the 2008 financial crisis.
  • 11:20 AM » Powell says he doesn't see a 'day of reckoning' coming for the US anytime soon
    Published Thu, Nov 14 2019 11:20 AM by CNBC
    Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Thursday that he does not see signs of any bubbles brewing or dangers being posed by trillion-dollar deficits.
  • 10:40 AM » MBA: "Mortgage Delinquencies Fall to Lowest Level in Nearly 25 Years"
    Published Thu, Nov 14 2019 10:40 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Fall to Lowest Level in Nearly 25 Years The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four unit residential properties decreased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.97 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the third quarter of 2019, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) National Delinquency Survey. The delinquency rate was down 56 basis points from the second quarter of 2019 and down 50 basis points from one year ago. The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started in the third quarter fell by four basis points to 0.21 percent. "Mortgage delinquencies decreased in the third quarter across all loan types - conventional, VA, and in particular, FHA," said Marina Walsh, MBA's Vice President of Industry Analysis. "The FHA delinquency rate dropped 100 basis points, as weather-related disruptions from the spring waned. The labor market remains healthy and economic growth has been stronger than anticipated. These two factors have contributed to the lowest level of overall delinquencies in almost 25 years." Added Walsh, "Looking ahead, we do continue to monitor the credit profile of new FHA loans, as changes to this profile can have a noticeable impact on future delinquency rates." ... Compared to last quarter, the seasonally adjusted mortgage delinquency rate decreased for all loans outstanding to the lowest level since the first quarter of 1995. By stage, the 30-day delinquency rate decreased 42 basis points to 2.20 percent, the 60-day delinquency rate decreased six basis points to 0.75 percent, and the 90-day delinquency bucket decreased 8 basis points to 1.02 percent. ... The delinquency rate includes loans that are at least one payment past due, but does not include loans in the process of foreclosure. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the third quarter was 0.84 percent , down six basis points from the second quarter of 2019...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:06 AM » This week's podcast: A look at the California Consumer Privacy Act proposed regulations
    Published Thu, Nov 14 2019 10:06 AM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    In this podcast, we discuss the key aspects of the recently-proposed regulations to implement the CCPA, identify issues clarified by the proposal or left unresolved, compliance challenges raised by CCPA requirements for financial incentives and consumer requests received by large businesses, next steps (including the likely timeline for final regulations and enforcement), and activity in... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 9:37 AM » U.S. producer prices rise solidly; healthcare costs increasing
    Published Thu, Nov 14 2019 9:37 AM by Reuters
    U.S. producer prices increased by the most in six months in October, lifted by gains in the costs of goods and services, further bolstering the Federal Reserve's stance that it will probably not cut interest rates again in the near term.
  • 8:39 AM » US jobless claims total 225,000, vs. 215,000 expected
    Published Thu, Nov 14 2019 8:39 AM by CNBC
    US jobless claims total 225,000, vs. 215,000 expected<br/>https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/14/weekly-jobless-claims-november-14.html
  • 8:14 AM » Trade Talks Hit Bump as China Resists U.S. Demands on Agricultural Purchases
    Published Thu, Nov 14 2019 8:14 AM by Bloomberg
    Trade Talks Hit Bump as China Resists U.S. Demands on Agricultural Purchases    Bloomberg
  • 8:07 AM » Fannie-Freddie Share Sales Might Come in 2022, Watchdog Says
    Published Thu, Nov 14 2019 8:07 AM by Bloomberg
    Fannie-Freddie Share Sales Might Come in 2022, Watchdog Says    Bloomberg
  • Wed, Nov 13 2019
  • 3:44 PM » Shares, bond yields slip on sour trade deal sentiment
    Published Wed, Nov 13 2019 3:44 PM by Reuters
    Global equity markets and government bond yields fell on Wednesday as sentiment soured that a U.S.-China trade deal can be reached soon and on fears intensifying unrest in Hong Kong may lead to a Chinese crackdown.
  • 3:44 PM » Bidding wars for homes hit a decade low
    Published Wed, Nov 13 2019 3:44 PM by CNBC
    Competition in the fall housing market is falling. Just 10% of offers written by Redfin agents for their clients in October faced a bidding war, down from 39% a year ago, according to the Seattle-based real estate brokerage.
  • 12:44 PM » Trump says he will make a decision on auto tariffs soon
    Published Wed, Nov 13 2019 12:44 PM by Reuters
    U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday said he had been briefed by his administration on the issue of whether to impose tariffs on car and auto part imports into the United States and would make a decision fairly soon.
  • 11:47 AM » NY Fed Q3 Report: "Household Debt Continues to Climb in Third Quarter as Mortgage and Auto Loan Originations Grow"
    Published Wed, Nov 13 2019 11:47 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the NY Fed: Household Debt Continues to Climb in Third Quarter as Mortgage and Auto Loan Originations Grow he Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit , which shows that total household debt increased by $92 billion (0.7%) to $13.95 trillion in the third quarter of 2019 . This marks the 21st consecutive quarter with an increase, and the total is now $1.3 trillion higher, in nominal terms, than the previous peak of $12.68 trillion in the third quarter of 2008. The Report is based on data from the New York Fed's Consumer Credit Panel, a nationally representative sample of individual- and household-level debt and credit records drawn from anonymized Equifax credit data. " New credit extensions were strong in the third quarter of 2019, with auto loan originations reaching near-record highs and mortgage originations increasing significantly year-over-year ," said Donghoon Lee, research officer at the New York Fed. "The data suggest that households are taking advantage of a low-interest rate environment to secure credit." emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. Here are two graphs from the report : The first graph shows aggregate consumer debt increased in Q3.  Household debt previously peaked in 2008, and bottomed in Q2 2013. From the NY Fed: Mortgage balances shown on consumer credit reports on September 30 stood at $9.44 trillion, a $31 billion increase from 2019Q2. Balances on home equity lines of credit (HELOC) have been declining since 2009, and this quarter's decline of $3 billion brings the outstanding balance to $396 billion. Non-housing balances increased by 64 billion in the third quarter, with increases across the board, including $18 billion in auto loans, $13 billion in credit card balances, and $20 billion in student loans. New extensions of credit were strong for the third quarter. Auto loan originations, which...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:20 AM » Fed Chair Powell: The Economic Outlook
    Published Wed, Nov 13 2019 11:20 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Testimony from Fed Chair Jerome Powell Before the Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Congress, Washington, D.C.: The Economic Outlook . Excerpts: The U.S. economy is now in the 11th year of this expansion, and the baseline outlook remains favorable . Gross domestic product increased at an annual pace of 1.9 percent in the third quarter of this year after rising at around a 2.5 percent rate last year and in the first half of this year. The moderate third-quarter reading is partly due to the transitory effect of the United Auto Workers strike at General Motors. But it also reflects weakness in business investment, which is being restrained by sluggish growth abroad and trade developments . These factors have also weighed on exports and manufacturing this year. In contrast, household consumption has continued to rise solidly, supported by a healthy job market, rising incomes, and favorable levels of consumer confidence. And reflecting the decline in mortgage rates since late 2018, residential investment turned up in the third quarter following an extended period of weakness. Inflation continues to run below the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) symmetric 2 percent objective. The total price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 1.3 percent over the 12 months ending in September, held down by declines in energy prices. Core PCE inflation, which excludes food and energy prices and tends to be a better indicator of future inflation, was 1.7 percent over the same period. Looking ahead, my colleagues and I see a sustained expansion of economic activity, a strong labor market, and inflation near our symmetric 2 percent objective as most likely . This favorable baseline partly reflects the policy adjustments that we have made to provide support for the economy. However, noteworthy risks to this outlook remain. In particular, sluggish growth abroad and trade developments have weighed on the economy and pose ongoing risks. Moreover, inflation pressures...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:53 AM » Houston Real Estate in October: Sales up 6% YoY, Inventory Up 7%
    Published Wed, Nov 13 2019 10:53 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Another solid regional market in October. From the HAR: Buyers Maintain Demand for Houston Housing in October Continued low mortgage interest rates kept consumers in a buying mood in October, powering home sales to a fourth consecutive positive month. According to the latest monthly report from the Houston Association of Realtors (HAR), sales of single-family homes across the greater Houston area totaled 7,231 in October. That is up 8.1 percent compared to a year earlier . On a year-to-date basis, home sales are 4.2 percent ahead of 2018's record volume, making it ever more likely that 2019 will establish a new record for local real estate. ... Sales of all property types climbed 6.2 percent in October , totaling 8,579 units. Total dollar volume rose 7.9 percent to $2.4 billion. In addition to the incentive that lower mortgage rates create, buyers benefited from a slightly larger supply of homes on the market with housing inventory up to a 4.0-months supply in October versus 3.9 months in 2018. So far this year, the peak inventory was reached in June and July when it grew to a 4.3-months supply. "Consumers continue to take advantage of attractive buying conditions, between low interest rates, a healthy supply of homes on the market and a strong overall Houston economy," said HAR Chair Shannon Cobb Evans with Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Gary Greene. "Interest rates are currently forecast to remain low into the new year, so it's possible that we get through the holidays without too much of a seasonal slowdown in home sales, but we'll just have to see how things go." emphasis added Total active inventory was up 6.9% YoY to 43,468 properties from 40,675 properties in October 2018. Sales are on pace for a record year.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:50 AM » Fed's Powell says 'sustained expansion' likely for U.S. economy
    Published Wed, Nov 13 2019 9:50 AM by Reuters
    U.S. central bankers see a "sustained expansion" ahead for the country's economy, with the full impact of recent interest rate cuts still to be felt and low unemployment boosting household spending, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday in remarks that brushed aside any worries of a looming slowdown.
  • 8:36 AM » US consumer prices rise 0.4% in October, slightly higher than estimates
    Published Wed, Nov 13 2019 8:36 AM by CNBC
    US consumer prices rise 0.4% in October, slightly higher than estimates<br/>https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/13/us-consumer-prices-rise-0point4percent-in-october-slightly-higher-than-estimates.html
  • 8:04 AM » National Bidding War Rate Hit a 10-Year Low in October
    Published Wed, Nov 13 2019 8:04 AM by www.redfin.com
    Nationally, just 10 percent of offers written by Redfin agents on behalf of their homebuying customers faced a bidding war in October The post National Bidding War Rate Hit a 10-Year Low in October appeared first on Redfin Blog .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.redfin.com
  • 8:04 AM » Powell's communication has been 'erratic,' former Fed official Plosser says
    Published Wed, Nov 13 2019 8:04 AM by CNBC
    The Federal Reserve has been quite "erratic" in its message over the last few meetings, creating uncertainty for the markets and investors, a former member of the U.S. central bank told CNBC Wednesday.
  • 8:04 AM » Treasury yields tick higher as investors await economic data, Fed speeches
    Published Wed, Nov 13 2019 8:04 AM by CNBC
    U.S. government debt prices were lower Wednesday morning, as investors awaited a fresh batch of economic data.
  • Tue, Nov 12 2019
  • 4:24 PM » Fed's election year challenge: Is slowing U.S. job growth a 'material' change?
    Published Tue, Nov 12 2019 4:24 PM by Reuters
    Having guided interest rates lower this year and declared a stopping point, Federal Reserve officials face a potentially volatile election year problem if U.S. job growth slows in coming months as many expect it will.
  • 4:23 PM » No tariff adjustments until deal made, Kudlow says: CNBC
    Published Tue, Nov 12 2019 4:23 PM by Reuters
    White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said on Tuesday there will be no tariff adjustments until trade deal with China is made.
  • 3:01 PM » Portland Suburb's Proposed Law Could Discourage Home Development
    Published Tue, Nov 12 2019 3:01 PM by www.realtor.com
    A Portland suburb is poised to vote on a law that taxes anyone who demolishes a home, the latest salvo in the fight over how to create more affordable housing in the state. The post Portland Suburb's Proposed Law Could Discourage Home Development appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 3:01 PM » Fed's Harker says he opposed last rate cut, thinks rates should stay put
    Published Tue, Nov 12 2019 3:01 PM by Reuters
    Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker said on Tuesday he did not support the Fed's last rate cut in October and that the central bank should keep policy steady.
  • 3:01 PM » JPMorgan AM Says Days of Simply Hedging Risk With Bonds Are Over - Bloomberg
    Published Tue, Nov 12 2019 3:01 PM by Bloomberg
    JPMorgan AM Says Days of Simply Hedging Risk With Bonds Are Over    Bloomberg
  • 1:16 PM » Trump barks at Fed but offers no fresh details on trade in NY speech
    Published Tue, Nov 12 2019 1:16 PM by Reuters
    U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday took aim once again at the Federal Reserve for its interest rate policy in a highly anticipated speech that offered no fresh details on his administration's long-running trade war with China.
  • 1:14 PM » AbbVie Kicks Off Mega Bond Sale to Finance Allergan Acquisition - Bloomberg
    Published Tue, Nov 12 2019 1:14 PM by Bloomberg
    AbbVie Kicks Off Mega Bond Sale to Finance Allergan Acquisition    Bloomberg
  • 10:24 AM » A Minority of Home Buyers Expect House Search to Get Easier Soon
    Published Tue, Nov 12 2019 10:24 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    Only 21% of prospective home buyers (people planning a home purchase) expect that finding the right home to buy will get easier in the months ahead, according to NAHB's Housing Trends Report for the third quarter 2019. That share is slightly better than the 19% who had the same expectation a year earlier. On the other hand, a majority of... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 9:42 AM » Fed Likely to Defy History With Rates Steady Through Elections
    Published Tue, Nov 12 2019 9:42 AM by Bloomberg
    Fed Likely to Defy History With Rates Steady Through Elections    Bloomberg
  • 9:21 AM » Small Business Optimism Index Increased Slightly in October
    Published Tue, Nov 12 2019 9:21 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    CR Note: Most of this survey is noise, but there is some information, especially on the labor market and the "Single Most Important Problem". From the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB): October 2019 Report: Small Businesses Continue to Push the Economy Forward The small business half of the economy continued its remarkable economic streak, posting a 0.6 point gain in October's Optimism Index . The 102.4 reading was buoyed by eight of the 10 Index components advancing, as talk of a recession waned in October. The Uncertainty Index declined 4 points but remains historically high heading into an election year. .. Twenty-five percent of the owners selected "finding qualified labor" as their top business problem, more than cited taxes or regulations. Reports of higher worker compensation rose 1 point to a net 30 percent of all firms - a historically high reading. Plans to raise compensation rose 4 points to a net 22 percent. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the small business optimism index since 1986. The index increased to 102.4 in October. Note: Usually small business owners complain about taxes and regulations (currently 2nd and 3rd on the "Single Most Important Problem" list).  However, during the recession, "poor sales" was the top problem. Now the difficulty of finding qualified workers is a top problem.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:54 AM » Homebuilder Horton sees 2020 home sales above estimates, shares rise
    Published Tue, Nov 12 2019 8:54 AM by Reuters
    D.R. Horton Inc topped expectations for profit and revenue in the fourth quarter and forecast 2020 home sales above analysts' estimates, as cheaper mortgage rates buoyed demand from buyers, sending shares in the biggest U.S. homebuilder up 3%.
  • 8:03 AM » Clarida, Monetary Policy, Price Stability, and Equilibrium Bond Yields: Success and Consequences
    Published Tue, Nov 12 2019 8:03 AM by Federal Reserve
    Speech At the High-Level Conference on Global Risk, Uncertainty, And Volatility, co-sponsored by the Bank for International Settlements, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, and the Swiss National Bank, Zurich, Switzerland
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Federal Reserve
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