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  • Wed, Jan 17 2018
  • 8:26 AM » Beware the $500 Billion Bond Exodus
    Published Wed, Jan 17 2018 8:26 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Beware the $500 Billion Bond Exodus Bloomberg For years, the likes of Apple Inc. and Microsoft Corp. have stashed billions of dollars offshore to slash their U.S. tax bills. Now, the tax-code rewrite could throw that into reverse. The implications for the financial markets are huge. The great on ... and more »
  • Tue, Jan 16 2018
  • 4:32 PM » Weidmann Says Predictions for Mid-2019 ECB Rate Hike Are Realistic
    Published Tue, Jan 16 2018 4:32 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Weidmann Says Predictions for Mid-2019 ECB Rate Hike Are Realistic Bloomberg Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said that analysts' expectations that European Central Bank interest rates won't rise before the middle of next year are reasonable. "Those expectations seem to be grosso modo in line with the current forward guidance ... and more »
  • 4:27 PM » Wells Fargo loses bid to end Philadelphia predatory lending lawsuit
    Published Tue, Jan 16 2018 4:27 PM by Reuters
    (Reuters) - A federal judge in Philadelphia on Tuesday rejected Wells Fargo & Co's bid to dismiss that city's lawsuit accusing the largest U.S. mortgage lender of predatory lending targeting black and Hispanic borrowers.
  • 2:48 PM » Update: Predicting the Next Recession
    Published Tue, Jan 16 2018 2:48 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    CR January 2018 Update: In 2013, I wrote a post " Predicting the Next Recession ". I repeated the post in January 2015  (and  in the summer of 2015 , in January 2016 , in August 2016 , and in April 2017 ) because of all the recession calls. In late 2015, the recession callers were out in force - arguing the problems in China, combined with the impact on oil producers of lower oil prices (and defaults by energy companies) - would lead to a global recession and drag the US into recession.   I didn't think so - and I was correct. I've added a few updates in italics by year.  Most of the text is from January 2013. A few thoughts on the "next recession" ... Forecasters generally have a terrible record at predicting recessions. There are many reasons for this poor performance. In 1987, economist Victor Zarnowitz wrote in " The Record and Improvability of Economic Forecasting " that there was too much reliance on trends, and he also noted that predictive failure was also due to forecasters' incentives. Zarnowitz wrote: "predicting a general downturn is always unpopular and predicting it prematurely-ahead of others-may prove quite costly to the forecaster and his customers". Incentives motivate Wall Street economic forecasters to always be optimistic about the future (just like stock analysts). Of course, for the media and bloggers, there is an incentive to always be bearish, because bad news drives traffic (hence the prevalence of yellow journalism ). In addition to paying attention to incentives, we also have to be careful not to rely "heavily on the persistence of trends". One of the reasons I focus on residential investment (especially housing starts and new home sales) is residential investment is very cyclical and is frequently the best leading indicator for the economy. UCLA's Ed Leamer went so far as to argue that: " Housing IS the Business Cycle...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:48 PM » U.S. government shutdown looms amid harsh immigration exchange
    Published Tue, Jan 16 2018 2:48 PM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Partisan finger-pointing over immigration policy on Tuesday left the U.S. Congress and the White House stumbling closer to a possible federal government shutdown by the end of the week, although Wall Street held out hopes for a deal to prevent that.
  • 2:48 PM » Beware of Landlords Offering Freebies and Discounts to Get You to Sign
    Published Tue, Jan 16 2018 2:48 PM by www.realtor.com
    While these concessions might excite renters and nudge them to sign the contract, they can become headaches for unwitting renters. The post Beware of Landlords Offering Freebies and Discounts to Get You to Sign appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 1:57 PM » Dow hits 26,000 for first time on earnings optimism
    Published Tue, Jan 16 2018 1:57 PM by Reuters
    (Reuters) - The Dow Jones Industrial Average raced past the 26,000 mark for the first time on Tuesday as fourth-quarter earnings season got off to a strong start following upbeat results from UnitedHealth and Citigroup.
  • 12:58 PM » 'Explosion' in US Bond Supply Endangers Global Market Rally - Bloomberg
    Published Tue, Jan 16 2018 12:58 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg 'Explosion' in US Bond Supply Endangers Global Market Rally Bloomberg A "dramatic" increase in U.S. bond supply over the next year risks unhinging global markets from their bullish foundations, warns Torsten Slok at Deutsche Bank AG. The supply of U.S. government debt will almost double to $1 trillion this year to ... and more »
  • 12:35 PM » Freddie Mac Leads Nation as Top Multifamily Lender for Third Straight Year
    Published Tue, Jan 16 2018 12:35 PM by freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Freddie Mac Leads Nation as Top Multifamily Lender for Third Straight Year
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 10:41 AM » Building Materials Prices and Labor Access Top Challenges for 2018
    Published Tue, Jan 16 2018 10:41 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    The monthly NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index includes a set of "special" questions on a topic of current interest to the housing industry. In December 2017, the special questions asked builders about the problems they faced in 2017 and expect to face in 2018. Topping the list of problems builders faced in 2017 and expect to face in 2018 is... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 10:16 AM » Freddie Mac Prices $793 Million Multifamily K-Deal, K-1504
    Published Tue, Jan 16 2018 10:16 AM by www.freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Freddie Mac Prices $793 Million Multifamily K-Deal, K-1504
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 9:56 AM » Employment Rose in Most States
    Published Tue, Jan 16 2018 9:56 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, nonfarm payroll employment increased in 32 states and decreased in 17 states and the District of Columbia in November 2017 compared to October 2017 while the level of employment in Maine remained unchanged. Year-over-year, 47 states increased employment while four states lost payroll employment during this time. As a result payroll employment nationwide... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 9:40 AM » NY Fed: "Business activity continued to grow at a solid clip"
    Published Tue, Jan 16 2018 9:40 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey Manufacturing firms in New York State reported that business activity continued to expand strongly. The general business conditions index was little changed at 17.7 . ... The index for number of employees fell nineteen points to 3.8, a level suggesting only a small increase in employment levels. The average workweek index fell to a level near zero, indicating that hours worked were unchanged. Looking ahead, firms remained optimistic about the six-month outlook. The index for future business conditions edged up two points to 48.6. The index for future inventories rose to 20.3, a record high, indicating that firms expect to build up inventories significantly in the months ahead. The index for future number of employees rose three points to 26.9, a multiyear high. emphasis added This was slightly below expectations, but still a solid report.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:19 AM » Treasury to recommend CRA changes
    Published Tue, Jan 16 2018 9:19 AM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    According to a Wall Street Journal article, the Treasury Department expects to make recommendations in early 2018 for changing Community Reinvestment Act regulations. The article quotes a Treasury spokesperson who is reported to have said that CRA modernization is needed to align the statute’s goals and ensure that banks’ investments better support community needs. The... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 8:32 AM » Citi reports $18.3 billion loss on tax law; adjusted profit rises 4 percent
    Published Tue, Jan 16 2018 8:32 AM by Reuters
    (Reuters) - Citigroup Inc on Tuesday posted an $18.3 billion quarterly net loss on one-time tax charges, but said adjusted income rose 4 percent from a year earlier as consumer businesses made up for lower revenue from bond and currency trading. The loss for the fourth quarter was due to a $19 billion write-down on the value of deferred tax assets left from losses in the financial crisis and $3 billion of expenses for the new U.S. tax on past profits earned and kept abroad.
  • 8:31 AM » ECB's Hansson Says Bond Purchases Could End After September
    Published Tue, Jan 16 2018 8:31 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg ECB's Hansson Says Bond Purchases Could End After September Bloomberg The European Central Bank should adjust its policy guidance before the summer and shouldn't have any problems ending net asset purchases in one swoop after September, Governing Council member Ardo Hansson said on Monday. While the Estonian policy maker ... and more »
  • Fri, Jan 12 2018
  • 3:21 PM » Palm Beach Notches Big-Ticket Home Sales
    Published Fri, Jan 12 2018 3:21 PM by www.realtor.com
    Once viewed as a bastion of older high-society snowbirds, the Florida island is becoming hipper as younger families are drawn by low taxes, picturesque scenery and sunshine. The post Palm Beach Notches Big-Ticket Home Sales appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 1:56 PM » One former Fed governor is worried that no one is worried about the strong economy
    Published Fri, Jan 12 2018 1:56 PM by CNBC
    "There's a lot of enthusiasm in markets," and that's concerning, says professor Randy Kroszner.
  • 1:54 PM » Bonds entering the ‘danger zone,' market watcher says
    Published Fri, Jan 12 2018 1:54 PM by CNBC
    For decades, prices for U.S. bonds have generally gone higher. But, the long boom could be heading for a bust.
  • 12:37 PM » Death of Bond Bull Market Exaggerated as Volatility Signals Calm
    Published Fri, Jan 12 2018 12:37 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Death of Bond Bull Market Exaggerated as Volatility Signals Calm Bloomberg U.S. government bonds have slid this week, yet fears of a market rout seem overblown. The climb in Treasury yields has led Janus fund manager Bill Gross to declare the end of the bull market, but he doesn't foresee dramatic losses. Volatility remains ... and more »
  • 11:36 AM » Federal Reserve fines five banks to wrap up mortgage servicing charges
    Published Fri, Jan 12 2018 11:36 AM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve fined five large U.S. banks a combined $35.1 million to settle cases of mortgage servicing flaws dating back to 2011.
  • 11:00 AM » For Bond Investors, Low Expectations in a Low-Yield World
    Published Fri, Jan 12 2018 11:00 AM by www.nytimes.com
    Small portfolio tweaks, emerging markets and money market funds are options - but prospects for big profits are rare.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.nytimes.com
  • 10:24 AM » Markets getting increasingly comfortable with more rate hikes this year
    Published Fri, Jan 12 2018 10:24 AM by CNBC
    Markets now fully expect two rate hikes this year and have nearly priced in a third.
  • 10:05 AM » Business inventories up 0.4% in November vs expectation of 0.2% gain
    Published Fri, Jan 12 2018 10:05 AM by CNBC
    U.S. business inventories were anticipated to rise in November, after slipping the previous month.
  • 9:16 AM » 2-year Treasury yield tops 2% for the first time since 2008 as inflation rises
    Published Fri, Jan 12 2018 9:16 AM by CNBC
    U.S. government debt yields rose Friday after consumer pricing data posted its biggest gain in 11 months.
  • 8:50 AM » US retail sales rise, while core sales are revised sharply higher
    Published Fri, Jan 12 2018 8:50 AM by CNBC
    U.S. retail sales increased in December as households bought a range of goods and figures for the prior month were revised higher.
  • 8:49 AM » US core consumer prices post biggest gain in 11 months
    Published Fri, Jan 12 2018 8:49 AM by CNBC
    The U.S. Consumer Price Index was expected to rise 0.2 percent in December, down from the 0.4 percent increase a month earlier.
  • 8:10 AM » JPMorgan profit beats on higher interest rates; debt trading down
    Published Fri, Jan 12 2018 8:10 AM by Reuters
    (Reuters) - JPMorgan Chase & Co , the biggest U.S. bank by assets, reported a higher-than-expected quarterly profit on Friday as gains in net interest income offset a slowdown in trading revenue.
  • 8:10 AM » There's Another Culprit for Treasury Rout Besides Japan and China
    Published Fri, Jan 12 2018 8:10 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg There's Another Culprit for Treasury Rout Besides Japan and China Bloomberg Treasury traders assigning blame to Japanese monetary shifts and Chinese bond preferences for this week's selloff may be overlooking a longer-term threat: supply from European governments drunk on quantitative easing. Strategists at Bank of America ... and more »
  • 8:08 AM » Wells Fargo beats earnings estimates but just misses on revenue
    Published Fri, Jan 12 2018 8:08 AM by CNBC
    Wells Fargo was expected to report fourth-quarter earnings of $1.07 per share on revenue of $22.38 billion, according to analysts surveyed by Reuters.
  • Thu, Jan 11 2018
  • 4:10 PM » Fed's Dudley warns that tax cuts putting economy on an 'unsustainable path'
    Published Thu, Jan 11 2018 4:10 PM by CNBC
    New York Fed President Bill Dudley painted an unflattering picture for growth, saying that the recently passed tax cuts pose an ominous threat down the road.
  • 3:14 PM » Oil Prices Higher, Up 19% Year-over-year
    Published Thu, Jan 11 2018 3:14 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From Bloomberg: Crude Oil Prices Are Up 49%, and It's Not All Thanks to OPEC The bottom line: A 49 percent surge in benchmark North American crude futures since late June, putting prices at a three-year high. ... "We expect inventories are going to build this year -- slightly," said Michael Cohen, Barclays Head of Oil Markets Research, in an interview on Bloomberg TV. "You're going to see a bunch of new crude supply coming on to the market this year from the U.S. So all in all, on a balanced basis, we don't see the kind of shortage to bring us to $80 for a sustainable basis." Click on graph for larger image The first graph shows WTI and Brent spot oil prices from the EIA . (Prices today added). According to  Bloomberg , WTI is at $64.29 per barrel today, and Brent is at $69.66. Prices really collapsed at the end of 2014 - and then rebounded a little - and then collapsed again at the end of 2015 and in early 2016. Now, with the global economy stronger and less domestic production, oil prices are rising. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in WTI based on data from the EIA . Six times since 1987, oil prices have increased 100% or more YoY.  And several times prices have almost fallen in half YoY. Currently WTI is up about 19% year-over-year.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 3:13 PM » David Rosenberg: Fed taking on role of 'serial bubble blower' and it won't 'end well'
    Published Thu, Jan 11 2018 3:13 PM by CNBC
    The Fed's tendency will be toward safe decisions and away from anything likely to unsettle Wall Street, said David Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff.
  • 3:10 PM » What Bond Rout? Let's Not Get Carried Away by the Hype and Noise
    Published Thu, Jan 11 2018 3:10 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg What Bond Rout? Let's Not Get Carried Away by the Hype and Noise Bloomberg For all the talk of a bond-market collapse, U.S. interest-rate options suggest no such thing. More likely, long-dated securities are facing a gradual upward repricing in yields with the Federal Reserve determined to raise rates and U.S. tax reform ... and more »
  • 3:10 PM » 5 tips before you buy or sell a home in cryptocurrency
    Published Thu, Jan 11 2018 3:10 PM by CNBC
    High-end real estate agent Tony Giordano shares his expertise to make the most of an emergent trend.
  • 3:09 PM » One in Four US Homebuyers Paid Above Listing Price Last Year
    Published Thu, Jan 11 2018 3:09 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg One in Four US Homebuyers Paid Above Listing Price Last Year Bloomberg A tight supply of U.S. homes for sale, coupled with low mortgage rates, led buyers to bid aggressively last year, with 24 percent paying more than the asking price, according to Zillow. That's the biggest share since the home-listing site began ... and more »
  • 12:38 PM » Citigroup warns New York and California homeowners could see tax bills go up about $3,000
    Published Thu, Jan 11 2018 12:38 PM by CNBC
    The reason comes down to a change in the Republican tax law having do to with the so-called SALT provision.
  • 12:33 PM » Court Denies English's Preliminary Injunction Motion; Mulvaney Continues to Exercise Acting CFPB Director Authority
    Published Thu, Jan 11 2018 12:33 PM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    Yesterday, U.S. District Court Judge Timothy J. Kelly denied Leandra English's motion for a preliminary injunction in a 46-page opinion. English had sought to block President Trump's appointment of Mick Mulvaney to serve as the CFPB's Acting Director. The Court denied that request and held that English failed to satisfy any of the four elements... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 12:01 PM » Sacramento Housing in December: Sales down 8% YoY, Active Inventory up 8% YoY
    Published Thu, Jan 11 2018 12:01 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Note: I'm going to retire the graph below.  The purpose was to see when the market shifted from distressed sales to more conventional sales.  For several years, not much changed. But in 2012 and 2013, we saw some significant changes with a dramatic shift from distressed sales to more normal equity sales.  Now almost all of the sales are conventional equity sales. Note: The Sacramento Association of REALTORS® started breaking out REOs in May 2008, and short sales in June 2009. In December, total sales were down 8.0% from December 2016, and conventional equity sales were down 3.8% compared to the same month last year. In December, 2.9% of all resales were distressed sales. This was up from 2.3% last month, and down from 4.8% in December 2016. Sacramento Realtor Press Release: 2017 closes with less sales, less inventory, higher sales price December recorded 1,408 closed escrows, a .9% increase from November(1,396 sales) and an 8% decrease from last year (1,530 sales). ... Active Listing Inventory decreased, dropping 28.9% from 2,216 to 1,575. The Months of Inventory also decreased, dropping 31.3% from 1.6 Months to 1.1. A year ago the Months of inventory was 1 and Active Listing Inventory stood at 1,458 listings ( 7.4% below the current figure ). emphasis added Here are the statistics . Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the percent of REO sales, short sales and conventional sales. There has been a sharp increase in conventional (equity) sales that started in 2012 (blue) as the percentage of distressed sales declined sharply. Active Listing Inventory for single family homes increased 8.0% year-over-year (YoY) in November.  This is the third consecutive month with a YoY inventory increase , following 29 consecutive months with a YoY decrease in inventory in Sacramento. Cash buyers accounted for 12.9% of all sales - this has been generally declining (frequently investors). Summary: This data suggests a normal...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:08 AM » Mortgage Rates Bounce Back Up
    Published Thu, Jan 11 2018 10:08 AM by freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Mortgage Rates Bounce Back Up
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
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