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  • Thu, May 16 2019
  • 2:31 PM » U.S. President Trump took out new 30-year mortgage in 2018 worth over $5 million
    Published Thu, May 16 2019 2:31 PM by Reuters
    U.S. President Donald Trump obtained a new 30-year mortgage in 2018 for a property he owned in West Palm Beach, Florida, according to new financial disclosures made public on Thursday by the Office of Government Ethics.
  • 2:31 PM » Taylor Morrison CEO on homebuilding at end of 2018: "It was that bad."
    Published Thu, May 16 2019 2:31 PM by CNBC
    The latest read on April housing starts showed improvement over March, but still a slower building pace than a year ago. The CEO of Arizona-based Taylor Morrison said, "In December, if you were to talk to anybody, there was, potentially, a house was never going to be sold in the U.S. again. It was that bad."
  • 2:31 PM » Townhouse Construction Slows at Start of 2019
    Published Thu, May 16 2019 2:31 PM by eyeonhousing.org
    According to NAHB analysis of the most recent Census data of Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design, townhouse construction slowed during the first quarter of 2019 after a strong 2018 performance. Nonetheless, townhouse construction is set for further expansion given the demographics of renters entering the for-sale market, as well as ongoing land constraints and the growth of demand for... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 12:40 PM » Incoming wave of millennial home buyers is a major opportunity for US housing market, says Taylor Morrison CEO
    Published Thu, May 16 2019 12:40 PM by CNBC
    Nearly 45 million Americans will reach the general age of first-time home buyers in the next 10 years, 3.1 million more than in the 10 years prior, according to a recent analysis by Zillow.
  • 12:17 PM » Fed's Neel Kashkari says rate hikes 'were not called for' and that policy has been 'too tight'
    Published Thu, May 16 2019 12:17 PM by CNBC
    The Federal Reserve erred by raising interest rates during the recovery, part of a policy implementation that misread key signals and threatened to send the economy into recession, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said Thursday.
  • 11:55 AM » Bond Traders Need to Up Their Game as AI Systems Get Smarter
    Published Thu, May 16 2019 11:55 AM by Bloomberg
    Bond Traders Need to Up Their Game as AI Systems Get Smarter    Bloomberg Money is pouring into artificial intelligence in bond markets, challenging bankers and investors to adapt their skills in everything from issuing to trading ...
  • 11:02 AM » Philly Fed Mfg "Current Indicators Suggest Continued Growth" in May
    Published Thu, May 16 2019 11:02 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Philly Fed: May 2019 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Results from the May Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest continued growth for the region's manufacturing sector . The survey's indexes for general activity, shipments, and employment increased from their April readings. The new orders index remained positive but decreased modestly. The survey's future activity index, after falling in recent months, was little changed, while the firms' forecast for future employment improved. The diffusion index for current general activity increased from 8.5 in April to 16.6 this month . ... On balance, the firms continued to report increases in employment. The employment diffusion index increased 4 points to 18.2, its highest reading in five months . emphasis added Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index: Click on graph for larger image. The New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (yellow, through May), and five Fed surveys are averaged (blue, through April) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through April (right axis). These early reports suggest the ISM manufacturing index will show expansion again in May, and probably at about the faster pace than in April.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:23 AM » China has cut its holdings of US debt to the lowest level in two years amid trade tensions
    Published Thu, May 16 2019 10:23 AM by CNBC
    The move represents a continued pattern of declines that comes as the two sides have been unable to hammer out a long-term trade agreement.
  • 8:15 AM » Some contrarians predict Trump's tariffs could trigger the very sort of interest rates he can't stand
    Published Thu, May 16 2019 8:15 AM by CNBC
    The escalating trade war between the U.S. and China could cause interest rate hikes, the very opposite of what President Donald Trump wants, some analysts have told CNBC.
  • 8:04 AM » Living with your parents to save money might hurt your chances of becoming a homeowner
    Published Thu, May 16 2019 8:04 AM by CNBC
    Young adults who lived with their parents between the ages of 25 and 34 were actually less likely to become homeowners after ten years than those who didn't. Diana Olick reports.
  • 8:02 AM » Global ‘Wall of Worry' Feeds Rush for Treasuries as Risks Mount
    Published Thu, May 16 2019 8:02 AM by Bloomberg
    Global 'Wall of Worry' Feeds Rush for Treasuries as Risks Mount    Bloomberg All roads are leading to the U.S. Treasury market as a dizzying array of global geopolitical and economic forces bolster the world's penchant to buy America's ...
  • Wed, May 15 2019
  • 3:40 PM » Three Fed Rate Cuts in 2019? Let's Take a Deep Breath
    Published Wed, May 15 2019 3:40 PM by Bloomberg
    Three Fed Rate Cuts in 2019? Let's Take a Deep Breath    Bloomberg Renewed trade tensions should tilt the central bank in a dovish direction, just not as much as the bond market expects.
  • 3:40 PM » How to Write a Winning Real Estate Offer Letter
    Published Wed, May 15 2019 3:40 PM by www.redfin.com
    The offer letter gives you the opportunity to connect with the sellers on a personal level, to explain to them why you want their home and why they should choose your offer. The post How to Write a Winning Real Estate Offer Letter appeared first on Redfin Real-Time .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.redfin.com
  • 3:37 PM » "Seriously Delinquent" Loans Decline
    Published Wed, May 15 2019 3:37 PM by eyeonhousing.org
    The quarterly National Delinquency Survey from the Mortgage Bankers Association shows a decline in the serious delinquency rate across all the categories of loans, continuing the downward trend that has persisted since the middle of the Great Recession. These categories of loans are Conventional loans, VA loans, and FHA-insured loans, for which the serious delinquency rates as of March 2019... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 1:22 PM » Rising Rents for Millennials Give Rise to a New Breed of Lender
    Published Wed, May 15 2019 1:22 PM by www.realtor.com
    New lenders are entering what was once the realm of payday lending, pitching loans to young renters in increasingly unaffordable cities. The post Rising Rents for Millennials Give Rise to a New Breed of Lender appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 1:21 PM » Treasury Rally Drags 2-Year Yield to Lowest Since February 2018
    Published Wed, May 15 2019 1:21 PM by Bloomberg
    Treasury Rally Drags 2-Year Yield to Lowest Since February 2018    Bloomberg Treasuries rallied, pushing the yield on two-year notes to the lowest level in more than a year, as investors sought safety amid global economic and trade ...
  • 11:45 AM » 51% of millennial homeowners say they regret buying their home—here's why
    Published Wed, May 15 2019 11:45 AM by CNBC
    Millennials are more than twice as likely to be stressed about homeownership as their baby boomer counterparts, according to real estate website Clever. Here's why many experience buyer's remorse.
  • 11:05 AM » Industrial Production Decreased 0.5% in April
    Published Wed, May 15 2019 11:05 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production fell 0.5 percent in April , and the rates of change for previous months were revised down on net. Output is now reported to have declined 1.9 percent at an annual rate in the first quarter . Manufacturing production moved down 0.5 percent in April after being unchanged in March. The index for mining advanced 1.6 percent in April, while the index for utilities fell 3.5 percent. At 109.2 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 0.9 percent higher in April than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 0.6 percentage point in April to 77.9 percent , a rate that is 1.9 percentage points below its long-run (1972-2018) average. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up 11.2 percentage points from the record low set in June 2009 (the series starts in 1967). Capacity utilization at 77.9% is 1.9% below the average from 1972 to 2017 and below the pre-recession level of 80.8% in December 2007. Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change. The second graph shows industrial production since 1967. Industrial production decreased in April to 109.2. This is 26% above the recession low, and 3.6% above the pre-recession peak. The decrease in industrial production and decrease in capacity utilization were below consensus.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:40 AM » NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity picked up significantly in New York State"
    Published Wed, May 15 2019 8:40 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey Business activity picked up significantly in New York State, according to firms responding to the May 2019 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index climbed eight points to 17.8, its highest level in six months . New orders and shipments also grew at a faster pace than in recent months. Delivery times held steady, and inventories moved slightly lower. Labor market indicators pointed to small increases in employment and hours worked. The index for number of employees fell seven points to 4.7, a level indicating that employment increased only to a small degree . The average workweek index held steady at 4.4. emphasis added This was well above the consensus forecast.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:10 AM » Fed Officials Pledge Rate Patience Amid Trade and Trump Pressure
    Published Wed, May 15 2019 8:10 AM by Bloomberg
    Fed Officials Pledge Rate Patience Amid Trade and Trump Pressure    Bloomberg Federal Reserve officials are sticking with their pledge for patience on interest rates, shrugging off President Donald Trump's escalating trade war and his ...
  • 8:09 AM » Trade War May Yet Spur China to Sell Treasuries as Yuan Sinks
    Published Wed, May 15 2019 8:09 AM by Bloomberg
    Trade War May Yet Spur China to Sell Treasuries as Yuan Sinks    Bloomberg The idea that China would dump its $1.1 trillion of Treasuries to retaliate against U.S. tariffs is often dismissed as improbable. It's seen as a nuclear option that ...
  • 8:08 AM » Home Prices in the U.S. Climb at Slower Pace as Inventory Rises
    Published Wed, May 15 2019 8:08 AM by Bloomberg
    Home Prices in the U.S. Climb at Slower Pace as Inventory Rises    Bloomberg U.S. home prices rose at a slower rate in the first quarter as more owners listed their properties for sale, according to the National Association of Realtors.
  • Tue, May 14 2019
  • 4:33 PM » Los Angeles Area Home Sales Increased 1% YoY in April, Inventory up 10% YoY
    Published Tue, May 14 2019 4:33 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From Pacific Union chief economist Selma Hepp: Spring has finally sprung in Los Angeles housing markets After doldrum housing market activity in Los Angeles through the first quarter of 2019, April has finally brought some cheer. Number of homes sold compared to last year increased 1 percent overall , mostly driven by increases in sales of homes priced between $1 and $2 million (up 8 percent), and sales of homes priced below $1 million (up 2 percent). Higher priced homes (above $2 million) continue to trend below last year's levels, but are still ahead compared to 2017 and 2016. ... Availability of for-sale inventory continues to trend above last year, with inventories 10 percent ahead of last April and all price ranges posting similar year-over-year differences. However, while there are more homes to choose from overall, these are not homes newly listed in April. In fact, new listings in April are below last year's , suggesting that some of the homes that are still available for sale have been taking longer to sell. emphasis added CR Note: there is much more data at Hepp's report .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 4:31 PM » U.S. Treasury chief to plan for trade meeting in China soon: spokesman
    Published Tue, May 14 2019 4:31 PM by Reuters
    U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will plan for another trade meeting in China at some point soon, a Treasury spokesman said on Tuesday, adding to President Donald Trump's earlier statements that U.S. dialogue with Beijing was continuing.
  • 3:25 PM » Fed's Esther George says there's no need for a rate cut even with the trade threat looming
    Published Tue, May 14 2019 3:25 PM by CNBC
    The Federal Reserve doesn't need to cut interest rates to boost inflation, George said in a speech Tuesday.
  • 1:51 PM » MBA: "Foreclosure inventory rate still at lowest level since 1995"
    Published Tue, May 14 2019 1:51 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Rise in the First Quarter of 2019 The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties rose to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.42 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the first quarter , according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) National Delinquency Survey. Despite an uptick of 36 basis points on a quarterly basis, the delinquency rate was still down 21 basis points from one year ago. The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started last quarter fell by 5 basis points from a year ago and 2 basis points from last quarter (to 0.23 percent). "The national mortgage delinquency rate in the first quarter of 2019 was down on a year-over-year basis, which is another sign of a very strong economic environment, bolstered by low unemployment and rising wage growth," said Marina Walsh, MBA's Vice President of Industry Analysis. "Moreover, the serious delinquency rate - the percentage of loans that are 90 days or more past due or in the process of foreclosure - dropped across all loan types from the previous quarter and a year ago to its lowest overall level since the second quarter of 2006." Walsh noted that early 30-day delinquencies rose in the first quarter of 2019 on a seasonally-adjusted basis across all loan types. The rise in early delinquencies resulted in the overall mortgage delinquency rate climbing by 36 basis points. While higher than several quarters in 2017 and 2018, it is still the fourth lowest overall mortgage delinquency rate in the past 12 years. ... By stage, the 30-day delinquency rate increased 29 basis points to 2.58 percent, the 60-day delinquency rate increased 7 basis points to 0.81 percent, and the 90-day delinquency bucket remained unchanged at 1.03 percent . ... The delinquency rate includes loans that are at least one payment past due, but does not include loans in the process of foreclosure. The percentage of loans...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:00 PM » Americans Kept Borrowing in First Quarter as New Mortgages Eased
    Published Tue, May 14 2019 1:00 PM by Bloomberg
    Americans Kept Borrowing in First Quarter as New Mortgages Eased    Bloomberg Americans continued to take on debt in the first quarter, though new mortgage borrowing slowed to the weakest level since late 2014, according to a Federal ...
  • 1:00 PM » Spending on Residential Improvements Edges Down in March
    Published Tue, May 14 2019 1:00 PM by eyeonhousing.org
    The most recent data from Construction Spending showed that spending on residential improvements fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $173 billion in March 2019, down by 3.1% over February estimate, and was 14.1% lower than a year ago. Residential Improvement Spending has experienced weakness after reaching the peak of $216.7 billion in April 2018. The recent downward trend... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 12:01 PM » Trump Seeks to Enlist Fed In His Trade Fight Against China
    Published Tue, May 14 2019 12:01 PM by Bloomberg
    Trump Seeks to Enlist Fed In His Trade Fight Against China    Bloomberg President Donald Trump pushed the Federal Reserve to "match" what he said China would do to offset economic hardship being caused by tariffs as he sought ...
  • 11:23 AM » NY Fed Q1 Report: "Total Household Debt Rises for 19th Straight Quarter, Now Nearly $1 Trillion Above Previous Peak"
    Published Tue, May 14 2019 11:23 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the NY Fed: Total Household Debt Rises for 19th Straight Quarter, Now Nearly $1 Trillion Above Previous Peak The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit , which shows that total household debt increased by $124 billion (0.9%) to $13.67 trillion in the first quarter of 2019 . It was the 19th consecutive quarter with an increase, and the total is now $993 billion higher than the previous peak of $12.68 trillion in the third quarter of 2008. The Report is based on data from the New York Fed's Consumer Credit Panel, a nationally representative sample of individual- and household-level debt and credit records drawn from anonymized Equifax credit data. ... "The rate at which credit card balances become delinquent has been rising, and that has coincided with an increase in younger borrowers entering the credit card market," said Andrew Haughwout, senior vice president at the New York Fed. "However, these delinquency rates are increasing from historically low levels and remain below pre-financial-crisis levels." Mortgage balances rose by $120 billion, to $9.2 trillion. Mortgage originations declined to $344 billion from $401 billion, the lowest level seen since the third quarter of 2014. Mortgage delinquencies improved slightly, with 1.0% of mortgage balances 90 or more days delinquent, down from 1.1% in the fourth quarter of 2018. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. Here are two graphs from the report : The first graph shows aggregate consumer debt increased in Q1.  Household debt previously peaked in 2008, and bottomed in Q2 2013. From the NY Fed: Aggregate household debt balances ticked up in the first quarter of 2019 for the 19th consecutive quarter, and are now $993 billion (7.8%) higher than the previous (2008Q3) peak of $12.68 trillion. As of March 31, 2019, total household indebtedness was $13.67 trillion, a $124 billion...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:32 AM » Chinese state media touts "5,000 years of trials and tribulations," gearing up for a long trade war
    Published Tue, May 14 2019 10:32 AM by CNBC
    In the midst of a full blown trade war, China's state media is using propaganda to drum up support against the United States and President Donald Trump.
  • 9:45 AM » Small Business Optimism Index increased in April
    Published Tue, May 14 2019 9:45 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    CR Note: Most of this survey is noise, but there is some information, especially on the labor market and the "Single Most Important Problem". From the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB): April 2019 Report: Small Business Optimism Index The Small Business Optimism Index improved, increasing 1.7 points to 103.5 . One Index component fell, one was unchanged, and eight improved. .. More new jobs were created in April, although at a slower pace than in the last quarter , with a net addition of 0.32 workers per firm. Twenty-four percent of owners cited the difficulty of finding qualified workers as their Single Most Important Business Problem, 1 point below the record high. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the small business optimism index since 1986. The index increased to 103.5 in April. Note: Usually small business owners complain about taxes and regulations (currently 2nd and 3rd on the "Single Most Important Problem" list).  However, during the recession, "poor sales" was the top problem. Now the difficulty of finding qualified workers is the top problem.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:21 AM » Single-Family Permit Weakness at Start of 2019
    Published Tue, May 14 2019 9:21 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    Over the first three months of 2019, the total number of single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 185,336. On a year-over-year basis, this is a 7.3% decline over the March 2018 level of 199,861. Year-to-date ending in March, single-family permits reported growth only in the Northeast region of the country. The South, Midwest, and the West regions declined by... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 8:59 AM » Trump says if Fed cuts interest rates, US will win trade war: 'It would be game over, we win!'
    Published Tue, May 14 2019 8:59 AM by CNBC
    Trump says if Fed cuts interest rates, US will win trade war: 'It would be game over, we win!'<br/>https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/14/trump-says-if-fed-cuts-interest-rates-us-will-win-trade-war-it-would-be-game-over-we-win.html
  • 8:44 AM » US import prices rose slightly in April, suggesting inflation could remain tame for a while
    Published Tue, May 14 2019 8:44 AM by CNBC
    U.S. import prices were seen rising 0.7% in April, after climbing 0.6% a month earlier.
  • 8:24 AM » Fed's Williams says policymakers need to better prepare for lower interest rate world
    Published Tue, May 14 2019 8:24 AM by Reuters
    Fed's Williams says policymakers need to better prepare for lower interest rate world - Reuters News
  • 8:22 AM » China says U.S. has agreed to keep talking over trade war
    Published Tue, May 14 2019 8:22 AM by Reuters
    WRAPUP 4-China says U.S. has agreed to keep talking over trade war - Reuters News
  • 8:04 AM » Treasury yields could rise 'really sharply' if China starts selling, strategist says
    Published Tue, May 14 2019 8:04 AM by CNBC
    Bond yields could be driven "sharply" higher if China deploys the so-called "nuclear option" in its escalating trade war with the U.S., a senior strategist told CNBC Tuesday.
  • Mon, May 13 2019
  • 4:48 PM » Exclusive Redfin and RE/MAX Partnership Ends
    Published Mon, May 13 2019 4:48 PM by www.redfin.com
    RE/MAX withdrew today from its corporate partnership with Redfin. Redfin has the utmost respect for RE/MAX as a company, for its agents and leaders. RE/MAX agents who already work as Redfin's partner agents will continue to be our partners, and RE/MAX agents can continue to enroll in our partner program, but Redfin can now enroll […] The post Exclusive Redfin and RE/MAX Partnership Ends appeared first on Redfin Real-Time .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.redfin.com
  • 4:29 PM » Lenders Scolded for Climate Ignorance in ‘Insane' Florida Real Estate Deals
    Published Mon, May 13 2019 4:29 PM by Bloomberg
    Lenders Scolded for Climate Ignorance in 'Insane' Florida Real Estate Deals    Bloomberg Hurricane Michael killed seven people and caused more than $6 billion in damage in Florida in October, a toll compounded by warmer, higher seas and wetter ...
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