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  • Wed, Jul 17 2019
  • 8:53 AM » Housing Starts at 1.253 Million Annual Rate in June
    Published Wed, Jul 17 2019 8:53 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: Privately-owned housing starts in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,253,000 . This is 0.9 percent below the revised May estimate of 1,265,000, but is 6.2 percent above the June 2018 rate of 1,180,000. Single-family housing starts in June were at a rate of 847,000; this is 3.5 percent above the revised May figure of 818,000. The June rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 396,000. Building Permits: Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,220,000. This is 6.1 percent below the revised May rate of 1,299,000 and is 6.6 percent below the June 2018 rate of 1,306,000. Single-family authorizations in June were at a rate of 813,000; this is 0.4 percent above the revised May figure of 810,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 360,000 in June. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts for the last several years. Multi-family starts (red, 2+ units) were down in June compared to May.   Multi-family starts were up 24% year-over-year in June. Multi-family is volatile month-to-month, and  has been mostly moving sideways the last few years. Single-family starts (blue) increased in June, and were down 0.8% year-over-year. The second graph shows total and single unit starts since 1968. The second graph shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then eventual recovery (but still historically low). Total housing starts in June were slightly below expectations, and starts for April and May were revised down. I'll have more later
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:05 AM » Powell Maintains Fed Pledge to Act to Sustain U.S. Expansion
    Published Wed, Jul 17 2019 8:05 AM by Bloomberg
    Powell Maintains Fed Pledge to Act to Sustain U.S. Expansion    Bloomberg Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank is "carefully monitoring" downside risks to U.S. growth and "will act as appropriate to sustain the ...
  • 8:04 AM » As Fed nears rate cut, policymakers debate how deep, and even if
    Published Wed, Jul 17 2019 8:04 AM by Reuters
    With the first U.S. interest rate reduction in a decade expected later this month, two Federal Reserve policymakers sketched out arguments on Tuesday on how deep the cut should be, even as a third said she needs more data before being ready to sign on at all.
  • Tue, Jul 16 2019
  • 4:49 PM » SEC reaches $60 million settlements involving ex-American Realty executives
    Published Tue, Jul 16 2019 4:49 PM by Reuters
    Two former executives at American Realty Capital Properties Inc, including the onetime billionaire who built it, have reached more than $60 million in settlements with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission of charges they wrongfully extracted millions of dollars from the real estate investment trust.
  • 3:19 PM » The US consumer is keeping the economy from tanking and will get another boost from the Fed
    Published Tue, Jul 16 2019 3:19 PM by CNBC
    American consumers are flexing their muscles, and that's helping to save the economy from even slower growth as it faces what could be a protracted trade war.
  • 3:18 PM » Fed's Charles Evans says he'd be comfortable with 'a couple' rate cuts before the end of the year
    Published Tue, Jul 16 2019 3:18 PM by CNBC
    Fed's Charles Evans says he'd be comfortable with 'a couple' rate cuts before the end of the year<br/>https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/16/feds-evans-comfortable-with-a-couple-rate-cuts-before-the-end-of-year.html
  • 3:18 PM » JPMorgan beats profit estimates but shows signs of pressure
    Published Tue, Jul 16 2019 3:18 PM by Reuters
    JPMorgan Chase & Co reported a quarterly profit that beat estimates on Tuesday as higher interest income and consumer lending offset lower activity at its trading desks.
  • 3:15 PM » House Financial Services Committee passes credit reporting bills
    Published Tue, Jul 16 2019 3:15 PM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    Four bills dealing with credit reporting were passed last Thursday by the House Financial Services Committee. While there has been bipartisan support for credit reporting reform, none of the bills received any Republican votes. The bills, which are listed below, would make various amendments to the FCRA, including those described below: The "Improving Credit Reporting for... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 1:13 PM » Powell says 'uncertainties' have increased chances of a rate cut
    Published Tue, Jul 16 2019 1:13 PM by CNBC
    The speech comes as market participants are strongly anticipating a rate cut at the July 30-31 Federal Open Market Committee policy meeting.
  • 1:13 PM » Wells Fargo Misses Lowest Estimates on Q2 Net Interest Income - Bloomberg
    Published Tue, Jul 16 2019 1:13 PM by Bloomberg
    Wells Fargo Misses Lowest Estimates on Q2 Net Interest Income    Bloomberg Bill Smead, chief executive officer and chief investment officer at Smead Capital, and Bloomberg Intelligence's Alison Williams examine second quarter results ...
  • 12:00 PM » A Leveraged Loan Collapses and Reveals Key Risk in Credit Market
    Published Tue, Jul 16 2019 12:00 PM by Bloomberg
    A Leveraged Loan Collapses and Reveals Key Risk in Credit Market    Bloomberg Operating out of a Chicago suburb, in a low-slung, red-brick building wedged between a Hyatt and a Radisson, Clover Technologies is in the mundane business ...
  • 9:14 AM » Retail Sales increased 0.4% in June
    Published Tue, Jul 16 2019 9:14 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.4 percent from May to June (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.4 percent from June 2018. From the Census Bureau report : Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June 2019, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $519.9 billion, an increase of 0.4 percent from the previous month , and 3.4 percent above June 2018. The April 2019 to May 2019 percent change was revised from up 0.5 percent to up 0.4 percent. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). Retail sales ex-gasoline were up 0.7% in June. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993. Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 3.9% on a YoY basis. The increase in June was above expectations, however sales in April and May were revised down.  Overall a solid report.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:34 AM » Villeroy Says ECB's Policy Guide Is Economic Data, Not Markets
    Published Tue, Jul 16 2019 8:34 AM by Bloomberg
    Villeroy Says ECB's Policy Guide Is Economic Data, Not Markets    Bloomberg The European Central Bank will act at coming meetings "if and when needed" based on data, not market expectations, Governing Council member Francois ...
  • 8:09 AM » The Most (and Least) Popular Spots for U.S. Vacation Homes
    Published Tue, Jul 16 2019 8:09 AM by Bloomberg
    The Most (and Least) Popular Spots for U.S. Vacation Homes    Bloomberg When it comes to vacation homes, *fresh* lobster and the opportunity to play in *fresh* powder is apparently more appealing than year-round sunshine. Maine has ...
  • 8:05 AM » Wells Fargo Says Big Rush to Bonds Has ‘Gotten Ahead of Itself'
    Published Tue, Jul 16 2019 8:05 AM by Bloomberg
    Wells Fargo Says Big Rush to Bonds Has 'Gotten Ahead of Itself'    Bloomberg Bond markets are at risk of becoming overheated as investors rush to anticipate a new cycle of global central bank policy easing, according to Wells Fargo & Co.
  • Mon, Jul 15 2019
  • 4:32 PM » Here are the 10 best cities for millennial homebuyers
    Published Mon, Jul 15 2019 4:32 PM by CNBC
    Many factors determine what makes a city a good place to live. But the number of jobs and cost of living are likely among the top, according to new research from real estate website Clever.
  • 4:31 PM » S&P 500 closes flat as earnings season starts
    Published Mon, Jul 15 2019 4:31 PM by Reuters
    The benchmark S&P 500 index ended little changed in a choppy session on Monday after Citigroup Inc kicked off the second-quarter earnings season with a mixed report.
  • 3:28 PM » This is the credit score you typically need to take out a mortgage
    Published Mon, Jul 15 2019 3:28 PM by CNBC
    The median score for those who qualified for a mortgage so far in 2019 is well above 700. If yours is lower, don't worry, there are plenty of steps you can take to increase it.
  • 1:33 PM » Black Homeownership Drops to All-Time Low
    Published Mon, Jul 15 2019 1:33 PM by www.realtor.com
    The black homeownership rate has fallen 8.6 percentage points since its peak in 2004, hitting an all-time low in the first quarter of 2019, according to census data. The post Black Homeownership Drops to All-Time Low appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 11:16 AM » Survey: Real Estate Commission Is Top Pain Point for Clients
    Published Mon, Jul 15 2019 11:16 AM by www.builderonline.com
    Survey: Real Estate Commission Is Top Pain Point for Clients
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.builderonline.com
  • 10:30 AM » Ten Years Ago: The Sluggish Recovery Began
    Published Mon, Jul 15 2019 10:30 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Note: This is the 15th year I've been writing this blog.  Sometimes it is fun to look back, especially at turning points.  Starting in January 2005, I was very bearish on housing - and in early 2007, I predicted a recession. However in 2009 I became more optimistic. For example, in February 2009, I wrote: Looking for the Sun (Note: that post shocked many readers since I had been very bearish). And here are a couple of posts I wrote exactly 10 years ago on July 15, 2009: Is the Recession Over? Show me the Engines of Growth Back in February I pointed out that I expected to see some economic rays of sunshine this year. But I never expected an immaculate recovery forecast from the FOMC. Although I've argued repeatedly that a "Great Depression 2" was extremely unlikely, I think the other extreme - an immaculate recovery - is also unlikely. I also noted - because the recovery would be sluggish, and jobless at first - that I'd expect the NBER to wait some time before dating the recession. The NBER finally dated the end of the recession in September 2010 : CAMBRIDGE September 20, 2010 - The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met yesterday by conference call. At its meeting, the committee determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in June 2009. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in December 2007 and the beginning of an expansion. The recession lasted 18 months, which makes it the longest of any recession since World War II. Along the way, in February 2012, I called the bottom for housing: The Housing Bottom is Here Currently I'm still mostly positive on the economy and still not on recession watch. Of course I'm concerned about policy (trade, immigration, etc).
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:02 AM » Single-Family Permit Decline Continued in May
    Published Mon, Jul 15 2019 10:02 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    Over the first five months of 2019, the total number of single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 342,116. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, this is a 5.8% decline over the May 2018 level of 363,327. Year-to-date ending in May, single-family permits reported declines in all four regions. The Midwest, West, South, and the Northeast declined by 10.6%, 11.0%, 2.8%,... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 9:26 AM » Condos Converting to Apartments in Tampa Forcing Owners Out
    Published Mon, Jul 15 2019 9:26 AM by www.builderonline.com
    Condos Converting to Apartments in Tampa Forcing Owners Out
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.builderonline.com
  • 9:00 AM » NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity rebounded modestly in New York State"
    Published Mon, Jul 15 2019 9:00 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey Manufacturing firms in New York State reported that business activity grew modestly in July. After declining substantially last month, the general business conditions index returned to positive territory, rising thirteen points to 4.3 . After falling below zero last month, the index for number of employees slid further, dropping six points to -9.6 , pointing to a decline in employment levels. The average workweek index, at 3.8, signaled somewhat longer workweeks. emphasis added This was slightly above the consensus forecast.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:04 AM » US Federal Reserve is 'doing a fine job,' IMF's Zhang says
    Published Mon, Jul 15 2019 8:04 AM by CNBC
    The U.S. Federal Reserve has come under fire in recent months for not lowering interest rates but the IMF's deputy managing director defended the central bank policy stance.
  • 8:04 AM » Groping for new tools, central banks — including the Fed — look at Japan's yield controls
    Published Mon, Jul 15 2019 8:04 AM by CNBC
    Japanese-style interest rate caps are drawing interest from global central bankers worried about a downturn, including U.S. Federal Reserve officials.
  • 8:02 AM » U.S. Fed seen launching repo facility in early 2020: Deutsche Bank
    Published Mon, Jul 15 2019 8:02 AM by Reuters
    The Federal Reserve may launch a policy tool to lend to banks using Treasuries and other securities as collateral in early 2020 with possible testing to begin later this year, a Deutsche Bank strategist said.
  • Fri, Jul 12 2019
  • 4:37 PM » Q2 Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2019
    Published Fri, Jul 12 2019 4:37 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    At the end of last year, I posted Ten Economic Questions for 2019 . I followed up with a brief post on each question. The goal was to provide an overview of what I expected in 2019 (I don't have a crystal ball, but I think it helps to outline what I think will happen - and understand - and change my mind, when the outlook is wrong). By request, here is a quick Q2 review. I've linked to my posts from the beginning of the year, with a brief excerpt and a few comments: 10) Question #10 for 2019: Will housing inventory increase or decrease in 2019? "I expect to see inventory up again year-over-year in December 2019.   My reasons for expecting more inventory are 1) inventory is still historically low (inventory in November 2018 was  the second lowest since 2000), 2) higher mortgage rates, and 3) further negative impact in certain areas from new tax law." According to the May NAR report on existing home sales , inventory was up 2.7% year-over-year in May, and the months-of-supply was at 4.3 months. It is early, and the inventory build has slowed recently as mortgage rates declined, but I still expect some increase in inventory this year. 9) Question #9 for 2019: What will happen with house prices in 2019? "If inventory increases further year-over-year as I expect by December 2019, it seems likely that price appreciation will slow to the low single digits - maybe around 3%." If is very early, but the CoreLogic data for May showed prices up 3.6% year-over-year. The April Case-Shiller data showed prices up 3.5% YoY - and slowing.  Currently it appears price gains will slow in 2019. 8) Question #8 for 2019: How much will Residential Investment increase? "Most analysts are looking for starts and new home sales to increase to slightly in 2019. For example, the NAHB is forecasting a slight increase in starts (to 1.269 million), and no change in home sales in 2019. And Fannie Mae is forecasting a slight increase in starts...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 3:07 PM » Building Materials Price Declines Led by Lumber and Plywood
    Published Fri, Jul 12 2019 3:07 PM by eyeonhousing.org
    Prices paid for goods used in residential construction decreased by 1.1% in June (not seasonally adjusted) according to the latest Producer Price Index (PPI) released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The decline broke a four-month trend of increases and was only the fifth month over the past two years in which prices fell. Over the past 12 months, building materials prices... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 1:03 PM » Bidding wars are heating up. Here's how to win your dream home
    Published Fri, Jul 12 2019 1:03 PM by CNBC
    The dull days of summer may be over sooner than expected in the nation's housing market. The supply of homes for sale, which had been increasing earlier this year, could turn lower again soon, and that will likely mean the return of bidding wars.
  • 12:37 PM » U.S. producer prices rise marginally, suggest tame inflation
    Published Fri, Jul 12 2019 12:37 PM by Reuters
    U.S. producer prices rose slightly for the second straight month in June as an acceleration in the cost of services was offset by cheaper energy goods, resulting in the smallest annual increase in producer inflation in nearly 2-1/2 years.
  • 11:12 AM » Treasury Dept asks Congress to raise debt ceiling before summer recess
    Published Fri, Jul 12 2019 11:12 AM by CNBC
    Treasury Dept asks Congress to raise debt ceiling before summer recess<br/>https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/12/treasury-dept-asks-congress-to-raise-debt-ceiling-before-summer-recess.html
  • 9:02 AM » U.S. producer prices rise slightly; cost of goods declines
    Published Fri, Jul 12 2019 9:02 AM by Reuters
    U.S. producer prices rose slightly in June as the cost of energy and other goods fell for a second straight month, offsetting an acceleration in services, leading to the smallest annual increase in producer inflation in nearly 2-1/2 years.
  • 8:06 AM » Messy 30-Year Treasury Sale Follows Dovish Powell, Firmer CPI
    Published Fri, Jul 12 2019 8:06 AM by Bloomberg
    Messy 30-Year Treasury Sale Follows Dovish Powell, Firmer CPI    Bloomberg Investors balked at the U.S. Treasury's auction of 30-year bonds as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell cited low inflation as grounds for a potential ...
  • 8:02 AM » First-Time Home Buyer Nightmare: Why It's Taking Longer to Find the Perfect Home
    Published Fri, Jul 12 2019 8:02 AM by www.realtor.com
    Snagging the right home for the right price is a challenging task at the best of times. And it's even worse for first-time buyers. The post First-Time Home Buyer Nightmare: Why It’s Taking Longer to Find the Perfect Home appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 8:02 AM » Powell Says Tariffs and Immigration May Be Slowing Homebuilding
    Published Fri, Jul 12 2019 8:02 AM by Bloomberg
    Powell Says Tariffs and Immigration May Be Slowing Homebuilding    Bloomberg The U.S. housing shortage has the attention of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
  • Thu, Jul 11 2019
  • 4:11 PM » Fed's Barkin: Risks Are Tilted a Little More to the Downside - Bloomberg
    Published Thu, Jul 11 2019 4:11 PM by Bloomberg
    Fed's Barkin: Risks Are Tilted a Little More to the Downside    Bloomberg Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Tom Barkin discusses downside risks to the economy and his concerns about business confidence and ...
  • 4:10 PM » As Fed's Powell affirms rate cut view, others see U.S. economy humming
    Published Thu, Jul 11 2019 4:10 PM by Reuters
    As Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell kept the focus Thursday on global risks that could trigger a Fed rate cut in coming weeks, his colleagues from regional Fed districts painted a rosier picture of continued U.S. economic growth and a solid business outlook.
  • 4:10 PM » Bostic: Fed's focus is its mandates not market pricing for rate cuts
    Published Thu, Jul 11 2019 4:10 PM by Reuters
    Strong market expectations of an upcoming Fed rate increase are not a reason for the central bank to make a policy move given a U.S. economy that continues to perform well, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said on Thursday.
  • 2:53 PM » U.S. government posts $8 billion deficit in June
    Published Thu, Jul 11 2019 2:53 PM by Reuters
    The U.S. government posted an $8 billion budget deficit in June, according to data released on Thursday by the Treasury Department.
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