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  • Thu, Jul 12 2018
  • 8:07 AM » US Yield Curve Will Invert in Mid-2019, Morgan Stanley Says
    Published Thu, Jul 12 2018 8:07 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg US Yield Curve Will Invert in Mid-2019, Morgan Stanley Says Bloomberg The Federal Reserve next March will probably map out an end to the contraction in its balance sheet, helping support longer-dated bond yields, which will drop below those on shorter-dated notes by the middle of 2019, according to Morgan Stanley ...
  • 8:07 AM » Americans Burdened by Increasing Housing Costs, Slow Wage Gains
    Published Thu, Jul 12 2018 8:07 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Americans Burdened by Increasing Housing Costs, Slow Wage Gains Bloomberg $500 more, each and every month. That's the additional cost of a mortgage payment if you bought a median-priced home in San Jose, California, in the first quarter of 2018 compared to late last year. The mortgage payment would be about $4,600 compared ...
  • Wed, Jul 11 2018
  • 3:50 PM » Investment and Recessions
    Published Wed, Jul 11 2018 3:50 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    A long, long, long time ago - almost twelve years ago - I wrote Investment and Recessions , explaining the usefulness of New Home Sales as a leading indicator. Here are some updated graphs. My view is new home sales and housing starts are two of the best leading indicators for the economy (but not always). The first graph shows the change in real GDP and Private Fixed Investment over the preceding four quarters, shaded areas are recessions. (Source: BEA) Click on graph for larger image. A couple of observations: 1) Since 1948, private fixed investment has fallen during every economic recession. 2) Private fixed investment has fallen 14 times since 1948, with only 11 recessions. So what happened during the periods around 1951, 1967 and 1986 to keep the economy out of recession? These are the periods when private investment fell, but the economy didn't slide into recession. The answer is generally the same for all three periods: a surge in defense spending. The defense spending in the early '50s was due to the Korean war, in the mid '60s the Vietnam war, and in the mid '80s a general defense build-up helped offset a small decline in private investment. The mid '80s also saw a surge in MEW (mortgage equity withdrawal) that also contributed to GDP growth. The second graph shows the separation of private fixed investment into residential and nonresidential components. This graph shows something very interesting: in general, residential investment leads nonresidential investment. There are periods when this observation doesn't hold - like '95 when residential investment fell and the growth of nonresidential investment remained strong. Another interesting period was 2001 when nonresidential investment fell significantly more than residential investment. Obviously the fall in nonresidential investment was related to the bursting of the stock market bubble. But the most useful information is that typically recessions are preceded by declines in residential...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 3:01 PM » Missing Millennial Homeownership Endangers the American Dream
    Published Wed, Jul 11 2018 3:01 PM by www.realtor.com
    Millennials own homes at a rate that's about 8 to 9 percentage points lower than previous generations of the same age. The post Missing Millennial Homeownership Endangers the American Dream appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 3:00 PM » Lumber Prices Increase While Gypsum Falls in June
    Published Wed, Jul 11 2018 3:00 PM by eyeonhousing.org
    The prices of building materials generally increased in June, according to the latest Producer Price Index (PPI) release by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. For the second consecutive month, softwood lumber (+4.0%) led the way, followed by oriented strand board (+2.2%, not seasonally adjusted). Similarly, the indexes for ready-mix concrete (-0.3%) and gypsum products (-0.6%) both declined for the second... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 1:30 PM » Global debt hits a new record at $247 trillion
    Published Wed, Jul 11 2018 1:30 PM by CNBC
    The debt-to-GDP ratio has exceeded 318 percent, marking its first quarterly rise in two years.
  • 1:27 PM » What Judge Kavanaugh could mean for the CFPB as a SCOTUS justice
    Published Wed, Jul 11 2018 1:27 PM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    As we discuss below, President Trump’s nomination of D.C. Circuit Judge Brett Kavanaugh to serve as a Justice of the U.S. Supreme Court could have significant implications for all federal agencies should Judge Kavanaugh be confirmed. However, in light of Judge Kavanaugh’s rulings in the PHH case, the implications for the CFPB could be even... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 11:39 AM » How an often overlooked part of owning a home can cost you an extra $6,000 or more a year
    Published Wed, Jul 11 2018 11:39 AM by CNBC
    If you're planning to buy a home, factor in this cost.
  • 11:25 AM » Bank of Canada raises rates, says more hikes to come
    Published Wed, Jul 11 2018 11:25 AM by CNBC
    The Bank of Canada raised interest rates as expected, but warned mounting trade tensions will have a larger impact on investment and exports than previously thought.
  • 10:05 AM » May wholesale inventories revised higher
    Published Wed, Jul 11 2018 10:05 AM by CNBC
    Wholesale inventories were expected to gain 0.5 percent in May while sales were expected to rise 0.6 percent.
  • 8:55 AM » Producer prices rose in June, leading to the biggest annual increase in 6 1/2 years
    Published Wed, Jul 11 2018 8:55 AM by CNBC
    U.S. producer prices increased slightly more than expected in June amid gains in the cost of services and motor vehicles.
  • 8:46 AM » Trump administration announces list of tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods
    Published Wed, Jul 11 2018 8:46 AM by CNBC
    Trump administration announces list of tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods
  • 8:33 AM » These are the reasons why millions of millennials can't buy houses
    Published Wed, Jul 11 2018 8:33 AM by CNBC
    Homeownership among millenials is lower than their parents and grandparents.
  • 8:15 AM » First ECB rate rise at earliest 'through summer' of 2019: Villeroy
    Published Wed, Jul 11 2018 8:15 AM by Reuters
    First ECB rate rise at earliest 'through summer' of 2019: Villeroy
  • 8:02 AM » Bond market's recession indicator may not be working this time
    Published Wed, Jul 11 2018 8:02 AM by CNBC
    A bond market recession indicator, considered to be reliable, is sending more and more negative signals about the economy, but some analysts say there's no reason for fear.
  • Tue, Jul 10 2018
  • 3:37 PM » Q2 Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2018
    Published Tue, Jul 10 2018 3:37 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    At the end of last year, I posted Ten Economic Questions for 2018 . I followed up with a brief post on each question. The goal was to provide an overview of what I expected in 2018 (I don't have a crystal ball, but I think it helps to outline what I think will happen - and understand - and change my mind, when the outlook is wrong). By request, here is a quick Q2 review. I've linked to my posts from the beginning of the year, with a brief excerpt and a few comments: 10) Question #10 for 2018: Will the New Tax Law impact Home Sales, Inventory, and Price Growth in Certain States? My sense is the low end of the housing market will be fine. The Mortgage Interest Deduction (MID) will be capped at interest on a mortgage up to $750,000 instead of $1,000,000, so the lower priced markets will not be hit by the reduction in the MID. There might be some additional taxes for these buyers due to the limits on SALT and property taxes, but this should be minor. I also expect the high end of the market to be fine. The high end is already doing well even with the MID capped at $1 million. For these buyers, the bigger impact will be the SALT and property tax limitations, but there will be offsets for these buyers due to the lower rates - and these buyers will likely benefit from the corporate tax cuts.  Many of these buyers will also benefit from the changes to the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT). It is the upper-mid-range in the certain markets that will probably slow.  This might be in the $750,000 to $1.5 million price range.  These potential buyers probably don't benefit from the AMT or corporate changes, but they will likely be hit by the SALT and property tax limits.  It is early, and there isn't any clear evidence of an impact from the new tax law, although some areas (like California) are now seeing a year-over-year increase in inventory - and that could be a leading indicator that price growth will slow. 9) Question #9 for 2018...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 3:37 PM » Americans Are Still Shunning Adjustable-Rate Mortgages 10 Years After the Crisis
    Published Tue, Jul 10 2018 3:37 PM by www.realtor.com
    With fixed-rate mortgages near all-time lows, there's been little reason for any borrower to take on interest-rate risk with an adjustable-rate loan. The post Americans Are Still Shunning Adjustable-Rate Mortgages 10 Years After the Crisis appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 1:22 PM » Competition Was a Culprit in the Housing Bust
    Published Tue, Jul 10 2018 1:22 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Competition Was a Culprit in the Housing Bust Bloomberg Blame for the 2007 to 2009 financial crisis has been pinned on everyone from greedy financiers and big banks to irresponsible home buyers. Add cutthroat local competition to the list of culprits. Local banks in competitive markets lowered their lending ...
  • 1:20 PM » Vanguard Real Estate ETF Had Its Best Week Since 2017
    Published Tue, Jul 10 2018 1:20 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Vanguard Real Estate ETF Had Its Best Week Since 2017 Bloomberg Last week's plunge in interest rates was a boon for the biggest real estate exchange-traded fund. The largest fund tracking real estate investment trusts, the Vanguard Real Estate ETF, or VNQ, took in $427 million during the week ended July 6, its ...
  • 1:18 PM » Yield Curve Inversion Beginning in December
    Published Tue, Jul 10 2018 1:18 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg MUFG Lays Out Map for US Curve Inversion Beginning in December Bloomberg It's a no-brainer that the Treasuries yield curve is on a crash course to inversion. That's the take from John Herrmann of MUFG Securities Americas Inc., who has a road map that lays out the timing for when yields on certain maturities will turn upside ...
  • 11:55 AM » Fed's Chart of Century, UK Growth, ECB Conduct Battle: Eco Day
    Published Tue, Jul 10 2018 11:55 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Fed's Chart of Century, UK Growth, ECB Conduct Battle: Eco Day Bloomberg A multi-colored graphic that's made the rounds at the Federal Reserve hints at what Chairman Jerome Powell could face if President Donald Trump succeeds in throwing globalization into reverse: Higher prices for many goods and potentially faster inflation. and more »
  • 11:34 AM » Count of Unfilled Construction Jobs Remains Near Cycle High
    Published Tue, Jul 10 2018 11:34 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    The count of unfilled jobs in the construction sector was flat in May, remaining near post-Great Recession high levels. According to the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and NAHB analysis, the number of open construction sector jobs came in at 243,000. The post-recession high count of open, unfilled construction jobs was 255,000 in July of last year.... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 11:10 AM » Brian Johnson named CFPB Acting Deputy Director
    Published Tue, Jul 10 2018 11:10 AM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    CFPB Acting Director Mick Mulvaney announced yesterday that he has selected Brian Johnson, who currently serves as CFPB Principal Policy Director, to serve as Acting Deputy Director. Before joining the CFPB, Mr. Johnson served as a House Financial Services Committee staff member. Mr. Johnson’s selection as Acting Deputy Director follows the announcement by Leandra English... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 10:50 AM » Rattled Analysts Wonder What Will Become of Turkish Central Bank
    Published Tue, Jul 10 2018 10:50 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Rattled Analysts Wonder What Will Become of Turkish Central Bank Bloomberg Investors have a lot to digest given the changes in Turkey over the past 24 hours. The lira plunged, then it jumped, and its been swinging ever since President Recep Tayyip Erdogan appointed his son-in-law, Berat Albayrak , as economy czar in the new ... and more »
  • 10:01 AM » Britain's May reasserts her authority after Brexit resignations
    Published Tue, Jul 10 2018 10:01 AM by Reuters
    British Prime Minister Theresa May moved to reassert her authority on Tuesday after two top cabinet members quit and launched broadsides against her Brexit plans, winning support from many of her ministers including a leading eurosceptic.
  • 9:30 AM » The most expensive places to live in America
    Published Tue, Jul 10 2018 9:30 AM by CNBC
    The cost of living in the U.S. can vary drastically from state to state. CNBC has ranked the top 10 states that will cost you the most in 2018.
  • 9:08 AM » The hottest housing market in the country is up 13% and now may be headed for a crash
    Published Tue, Jul 10 2018 9:08 AM by CNBC
    Home prices in Washington state rose nearly 4% in the first quarter, the most in the nation, and more than 13% from one year ago. Experts say the market is now vulnerable to rising interest rates, job losses due to tariffs, and local policies against development.
  • 9:08 AM » Small Business Optimism Index decreased in June
    Published Tue, Jul 10 2018 9:08 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB): June 2018 Report: Small Business Optimism Index The Small Business Optimism Index posted its sixth highest reading in survey history for the month of June, at 107.2, down 0.6 from May . .. Reports of employment gains remain strong among small businesses. Owners reported adding a net 0.19 workers per firm on average, virtually unchanged from May emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the small business optimism index since 1986. The index decreased to 107.2 in June. Note: Usually small business owners complain about taxes and regulations.  However, during the recession, "poor sales" was the top problem. Now the difficulty of finding qualified workers is the top problem.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:19 AM » UK economy perks up slightly as Bank of England nears rate decision
    Published Tue, Jul 10 2018 8:19 AM by Reuters
    UK economy perks up slightly as Bank of England nears rate decision
  • 8:05 AM » Chart of Century Gives Powell Gloomy Glimpse of Trade-War World
    Published Tue, Jul 10 2018 8:05 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Chart of Century Gives Powell Gloomy Glimpse of Trade-War World Bloomberg A multi-colored graphic that's made the rounds at the Federal Reserve hints at what Chairman Jerome Powell could face if President Donald Trump succeeds in throwing globalization into reverse: Higher prices for many goods and potentially faster inflation. and more »
  • Mon, Jul 9 2018
  • 4:06 PM » Wall Street gains; investors expect strong earnings
    Published Mon, Jul 09 2018 4:06 PM by Reuters
    U.S. stocks rose on Monday, helped by bank, industrial and energy shares, as investors looked ahead to a strong quarterly earnings season.
  • 1:25 PM » No Savings? No Problem. These Companies Are Helping Home Buyers With Down Payments
    Published Mon, Jul 09 2018 1:25 PM by www.realtor.com
    Some worry that helping borrowers get down payments could actually exacerbate the housing market's main problem: a dearth of new homes. The post No Savings? No Problem. These Companies Are Helping Home Buyers With Down Payments appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 11:50 AM » Homeowners are sitting on a record amount of cash – and not tapping it
    Published Mon, Jul 09 2018 11:50 AM by CNBC
    Home prices are rising fast, and homeowners are gaining thousands of dollars in available equity to tap, but they are taking out very little. It may be that they don't know how much they have or that they are generally more conservative following the last housing crash.
  • 10:00 AM » Time Needed to Build a Single-Family Home in 2017
    Published Mon, Jul 09 2018 10:00 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    The 2017 Survey of Construction (SOC) from the Census Bureau shows that the average completion time of a single-family house is around 7.5 months, which usually includes almost a month from authorization to start and another 6.5 months to finish the construction. The average completion time in 2017 was the same as it was in 2016, but it was longer... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 9:37 AM » Mario Draghi: Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament
    Published Mon, Jul 09 2018 9:37 AM by www.ecb.europa.eu
    Mario Draghi: Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament<br/>https://www.ecb.europa.eu//press/key/date/2018/html/ecb.sp180709.en.html
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.ecb.europa.eu
  • 9:04 AM » Oil Rigs: "A rebound after last week's fall"
    Published Mon, Jul 09 2018 9:04 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    A few comments from Steven Kopits of Princeton Energy Advisors LLC on July 6, 2018: • Rig counts recovered after last week's lousy numbers • Total oil rigs are up, +5 to 863 • Horizontal oil rigs rebounded, +6 to 771 ... • The big movers this week were the Cana Woodford, -6; and Other US, +7. Expect some reversal of these numbers next week. Click on graph for larger image. CR note: This graph shows the US horizontal rig count by basin. Graph and comments Courtesy of Steven Kopits of Princeton Energy Advisors LLC.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:01 AM » Housing Share of GDP: First Quarter 2018
    Published Mon, Jul 09 2018 9:01 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    With the release of the final estimate of first quarter 2018 GDP growth (2% growth rate), housing's share of gross domestic product (GDP) declined slightly to 15.3%. The home building and remodeling component - residential fixed investment - held steady at 3.5%. Housing-related activities contribute to GDP in two basic ways. The first is through residential fixed investment (RFI). RFI is effectively the... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 8:36 AM » What rate spike? One group of stocks is signaling lower bond yields
    Published Mon, Jul 09 2018 8:36 AM by CNBC
    The yield on the 10-year hit its lowest level in more than a month, and the price action in a number of rate-sensitive stocks suggest even lower rates to come.
  • 8:05 AM » Japan a big seller of German, U.S. bonds in May
    Published Mon, Jul 09 2018 8:05 AM by Reuters
    Japan a big seller of German, U.S. bonds in May
  • 8:00 AM » Sea of red in the Treasury market may signal the bond-buying boom is over
    Published Mon, Jul 09 2018 8:00 AM by CNBC
    There are signs the sea of red in Treasury bonds could signal a bear market rather than offer a chance to scoop up bargains.
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